Game of the Decade: 2010-2019 Contest Analysis Crew - Part 5

I just counted the words and transience's post was a bit longer than mine. 1263 words versus 1241!

LeonhartFour posted...

no one remembers that Spider-Man was hovering around 60-61% before the Octopath/Shovel Knight rally fest started...!

Should have pointed this out in my post, oh well.

DMC5's in today's poll and it's doing better than I would have expected. it's not good, mind you, but it's about tied with MGS5 and RE5, which isn't bad. then again, so is Civ 5 so who knows. DMC5 is definitely the biggest knock against Odyssey's perceived contest dominance.

If you assume constant Shovel Knight and constant Minecraft from 2015, Odyssey is projected to get 60.55% on Smash.

But there's the thing, every time you assume constant Minecraft, crazy results happen. If you take that and assume Three Houses this year is as strong as FE Awakening was in 2015, you get Xenoblade beating Smash. And Three Houses could be stronger.

Minecraft is stronger than 2015, that's what I'm saying. But how much stronger is anyone's guess, since there is a big gap from that 60.55% to 50%. Not to mention Mario may have SFF'd SK. Not to mention Mario vs Smash is also SFF itself.

But yeah. Don't use Minecraft 2015 stats. Just don't.

Or Minecraft was underrated in 2015, as I've been saying.

the more I think about this match, the more I think that even if Odyssey is ahead, it'll lose due to rallying. I'd rather have Smash, I think, but that's just scars from the CT match.

I don't know if the Ultimate fanbase is as fervent as Melee's to need to worry about a rally.

Great great write ups guys on what is one of the biggest matches of the contest. In particular kudos to @ZeldaTPLink , @transience . I still believe Ultimate will win this match.

When I went over to a friends place to play Switch games in Dec 2018, Smash Ultimate was the first game we all played. Odyssey was an after-thought. We played it after like 2 hrs of Smash Ultimate. We played Mario Odyssey for 15 min. I could barely remember the name of the game, just generically knew it was Mario.

I still think this lingers to this day. Smash with 51%

The Mana Sword posted...

I don't know if the Ultimate fanbase is as fervent as Melee's to need to worry about a rally.

If Ultimate needs a rally, I'm sure some top Ultimate pros will be fine with throwing a bone toward the game. M2K would probably also be fine with throwing out a link, though he doesn't really play much Smash at all these days.

Of the Smash pros, I only know of ZeRo and M2K that have accounts on this site.

Yeah, Ultimate doesn't have the complex that Melee does, but it definitely has a deeper well to draw from than Odyssey.

there's also half the votes of the 2015 match that it rolled over with ease.

Master Moltar posted...

Smash Ultimate is the same thing. Its big selling point is quite literally "Everyone is here", a cavalcade of everything you could possibly want from a Smash game. But it's not breaking any ground here. When you pick up Smash Ultimate and fight someone for the first time, you immediately know how to use every character because it's the same s*** you've been doing in Smash for a dozen years. There are new single player modes and those are fun, but not many people are buying Smash so they can do the single player. Some exist, sure, but it's not the big draw.

This is my thoughts exactly on Smash Ultimate when I played it. Just felt the same. Yet I still think it will win.

SuperNiceDog posted...

Great great write ups guys on what is one of the biggest matches of the contest. In particular kudos to @ZeldaTPLink , @transience . I still believe Ultimate will win this match.

When I went over to a friends place to play Switch games in Dec 2018, Smash Ultimate was the first game we all played. Odyssey was an after-thought. We played it after like 2 hrs of Smash Ultimate. We played Mario Odyssey for 15 min. I could barely remember the name of the game, just generically knew it was Mario.

I still think this lingers to this day. Smash with 51%

I'm sure your experience playing a multiplayer game with a friend over a year ago is a faithful reflection of the way GameFAQs users vote in these polls.

MechanicalWall posted...

Whatever wins here is probably going to do so by more than a point or two, that much I'm comfortable saying. I have Mario winning 57% in my Second Chance bracket and that was me being conservative.

This very much feels like the lead-up to Xenoblade vs 3H where XBC was clearly putting up better numbers but it still felt like 3H should win because of the pecking order and maybe its opponents were better!. Turned into a 60-40 match.

Mario vs. Samus in 18 showed that isn't necessarily the case. Maybe the fanbase is just truly split.

melee fanboys hate the success ultimate is having so they'd probably vote for odyssey

snake_5036 posted...

If Ultimate needs a rally, I'm sure some top Ultimate pros will be fine with throwing a bone toward the game. M2K would probably also be fine with throwing out a link, though he doesn't really play much Smash at all these days.

Of the Smash pros, I only know of ZeRo and M2K that have accounts on this site.

Neither of those people even have super favorable opinions on Ultimate

I don't know what Melee fans you're talking about, the only big name competitive player that still speaks out about Ultimate is Leffen and he's always bitching about something anyway, Ultimate or not

Non-pro Melee fans are generally pretty chill people in my experiences.

Neither of those people even have super favorable opinions on Ultimate

They don't have negative ones either, just the usual grievances about Smash's online still sucking ass. Which we all have >_>

Smash loses because of covid factor because everyone is forced to live with Ultimate's awful netcode. I like it

ctesjbuvf posted...

Mario vs. Samus in 18 showed that isn't necessarily the case. Maybe the fanbase is just truly split.

What I know is that the Switch has had extremely high hardware-software attachment rates for Nintendo's first party games (they always do but even more than normal); I would assume there's even higher overlap than usual between people who own both these games

Based on my perusal of the boards, it feels like while interest in Ultimate is always high, more people have actually played Mario Odyssey for an appreciable amount of time. When it comes time to throw down I can see a lot more people backing the chunky single player game over the game they only bust out once in a blue moon.

This is all circumstantial evidence at best, of course. Allen is definitely throwing red meat here for the people who want to see these head-to-head Nintendo matches.

This match demonstrates that we can spend a lot of words talking about something none of us are sure about.

metaIslug posted...

I can't believe ME is winning with such an awful picture against RE2's

The moment I saw that pic I thought it was game over. Apparently not

People bitched at me for 5 years over my last ME2 picture, so this time around I submitted the most generic image possible.

Pick a belief and stick with it, crybabies.

Both pics can be ugly for different reasons. I don't like that art style.

But there's no way it's actually hurting ME2.

Leonhart4 posted...

This match demonstrates that we can spend a lot of words talking about something none of us are sure about.

Well it's one of the last sexy matches in bracket. After this I don't feel there's much left to debate.

MechanicalWall posted...

Well it's one of the last sexy matches in bracket. After this I don't feel there's much left to debate.

Oh, there's plenty left to debate but this is the only big Nintendo vs. Nintendo match in the bracket.

Yeah, the bottom half of the bracket is almost entirely debatable matches from the QFs on.

I'm sure people will want to debate certain matches... for the sake of debating.

MechanicalWall posted...

I'm sure people will want to debate certain matches... for the sake of debating.

And I'm sure you'll be there to tell us how obvious those results were...after the matches are over.

Not sure what you're implying.

I have a pretty good record of saying things were obvious when I had actually called them well in advance. Certainly have a good record of being humble when I'm wrong!

Round 4 – Persona 4 Golden vs. Xenoblade Chronicles

Moltar’s Analysis

Persona 4 Golden
Round 1 – 77.77% vs. FTL: Faster Than Light
Round 2 – 50.83% vs. Red Dead Redemption
Round 3 – 51.07% vs. Grand Theft Auto V

Xenoblade Chronicles
Round 1 – 78.43% vs. Splatoon 2
Round 2 – 73.32% vs. Overwatch
Round 3 – 59.64% vs. Fire Emblem: Three Houses

ain’t no stopping this xenoblade train

Persona 4 Golden has done really well to get this far, as beating RDR and GTAV is no small task. P4 was struggling with Dead Rising and getting 30% on RE4 at the start of the decade! It has come a long way, but Xenoblade, unfortunately for it, has powered up just a little bit more.

Three Houses might not be as strong as I thought pre-contest, but I still think it’s around as strong as RDR and GTAV. If Xenoblade had no problem with Three Houses, it shouldn’t have any problem with a game that barely got past the Rockstar games. Percentage-wise, if Xenoblade did exert a little bit of SFF over Fire Emblem last round, this could be closer. If FE:TH would have also beaten anything from the top half of the division, then this could be a 60%+ rout.

I think the former scenario is more likely.

Moltar’s Bracket: yikes

Moltar’s Prediction: Xenoblade Chronicles – 56%

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transience’s Analysis

This one feels obvious - Xenoblade has just had better performances, or at least it seems that way. Xenoblade really rocked Fire Emblem and had round 1 and 2 performances that were pretty overwhelming, and Xenoblade 2's close loss to Arkham City also suggested that its big brother is legit. It's hard to think that a game that squeaked by GTA and RDR would have a problem here.

That said.. what is this uneasy feeling that I have? Make no doubt about it - Xenoblade and Persona is a SFF match through and through. Those two franchises, along with Dragon Quest, are the biggest JRPGs of the last decade. You know how Mass Effect 2 randomly blew up Fallout 4? That's the feeling that I get with this one.

Persona is probably the bigger franchise, but there's also a remake stigma around P4G. We had 3 ports/remakes in the bracket and we have 3 remakes remaining in our top 16, so maybe that doesn't actually matter? I'm picking Xenoblade here because it would be hard to justify anything else, but if Persona suddenly throws a cog in Xenoblade's incredible run, I won't be super surprised. I also won't be surprised if Xenoblade just demolishes Persona because, like I said, this is an SFF match.

transience's prediction: Xenoblade Chronicles with 53.51%

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Leonhart’s Analysis

This is probably the most “GameFAQs” division finals matchup we have, with two JRPGs that have gradually grown in respect and prestige over the course of the last decade. You probably wouldn’t see this as a division final in a Game of the Decade on any other site unless it’s a JRPG fansite, especially when you look at some of the big name games they beat on the way here, like Grand Theft Auto V, Red Dead Redemption, and Overwatch. Honestly, I should have known this is what it would have come down to. In a division that was widely considered the most unpredictable, we got the most obvious outcome! Wish I’d had the guts to believe in Persona 4 Golden a little more!

Anyway, these games have taken different routes to get here. Persona 4 Golden has narrowly edged out two big name games in consecutive rounds, while Xenoblade has destroyed everything in its path. This feels like a clear end of the line for Persona 4, but is there an actual argument to be made for it winning here? I think your best bet is just to argue that Xenoblade has been overperforming for reasons that wouldn’t be repeatable here, such as Nintendo SFF with Splatoon 2 and Three Houses. It would also require Overwatch to be utter garbage, which is probably the easiest part of this to believe!

That being said, as much as I’d love to believe Persona 4 Golden can win this, I think it’s asking a bit too much to expect Xenoblade to have three fluky overperformances by sheer coincidence. At that point, it’s just a pattern proving that Xenoblade is legit. If P4G had managed to be more convincing against GTAV and RDR, I’d be willing to entertain it, but there’s just no way Xenoblade drops a match to either of those games. I think Persona 4 will hold up well (barring some weird JRPG SFF, I guess), but Xenoblade should claim the division crown.

Leonhart’s Vote: Persona 4 Golden

Leonhart’s Prediction: Xenoblade Chronicles with 55.44%

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Kleenex’s Analysis

This is one of the more straightforward matches of the round. Persona 4 has had a great, exciting run to make it this far, but Xenoblade has just had this division’s number. You need to do some real funny stuff with stats in order to twist this in a way so that Persona 4 has a chance, and I don’t think I’m ready to warp reality that much yet. I will say, I think Xenoblade is probably being a little overrated because I think its competition thus far hasn’t been particularly great. Splatoon 2, Overwatch and Fire Emblem isn’t exactly a murderers row of games (note: please see my ME2/RE2 writeup for my thoughts on Fire Emblem, which may possibly have been proven false at the time of posting). I’m actually expecting Persona to put up a reasonable fight here, but the odds are likely too stacked against it to come out with a victory unless there’s some weird momentum rally thing...but Xenoblade doesn’t feel like a game that’s susceptible to succumbing to such a thing. The second nail in my Guru bracket - if it’s not already dead by the time this match happens.

Kleenex’s Prediction: Xenoblade Chronicles with 54.50%

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Guest’s Analysis – Hbthebattle

Fun fact: the only way I win Guru is if P4G pulls off the upset here...
In other words, I'm fucked. P4G has struggled with almost all of its opponents, and Xenoblade has gotten to dole out massive SFF beatdowns and blow out Overwatch. Xenobade won't have as much SFF here as it did against FE3H, so it should do a little better, but there's almost no chance it loses this.

Xenoblade with 57.75%

____________________________________________________________________________

Crew Consensus: Xenoblade casts Hama on Persona for the kill.

The only way I can see P4G winning is if there’s some sort of “Holy Shit This Game Beat GTAV” bandwagon boost that SMRPG also got.

I really need to start wildly over or under-predicting things if I want any shot at accuracy points anymore

I get the feeling P4G already benefited from a slight bandwagon to upset GTAV, but Xenoblade should be on an entirely different level.

Also few have Xenoblade itself in Round 4, so that should mitigate much in the way of any bandwagon P4G could have.

phew, crew curse is the only chance I have in this match and I got it!

transience posted...

phew, crew curse is the only chance I have in this match and I got it!

I mean the only one who would pick P4G here is a crazy guest!

you guys boxed me in on ME2 but not by enough!

Master Moltar posted...

#1 GameFAQs doesn't care about multiplayer anymore

Check this poll:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7872-do-you-play-more-single-player-or-multiplayer-games

80% of the site doesn't play multiplayer. That is a lot. It's also a change of 10% from the previous version of this poll (2013). Let's be real, we don't have time to get a bunch of friends in our house to play smash anymore. Or if we do, most of our friends don't, even they are even living in the same city as we are. I have Brawl in my home and I've touched it maybe twice because, when I finally got Brawl, all the people I could play Smash with like in the old Melee times were living in other places. Online Ultimate is also kind of bad from what I hear, because Nintendo doesn't know how to make online multiplayer. Now, Smash single player is fun, but you know what is also fun? MARIO single player. I have a feeling Ultimate is this game everyone got excited about, maybe played a little of its single player, but then went back to MARIO, or ZELDA.

That may be true for local multiplayer, but it doesn't explain why online multiplayer has become less popular on this site.

Online multiplayer has gotten weaker for different reasons, the biggest of which is centered around the average age of the site's users being over 30 and many people now have full time jobs that make scheduling online multiplayer sessions even harder now. Finding one specific date and time for an online multiplayer session that works for the greatest number of people is very difficult because any specific date and time you can come up with will have at least some people who can't play at that time for various reasons (currently working, visiting family or friends, etc). Given the logistical difficulties that now factor into scheduling online multiplayer sessions, it's no wonder a lot of the site has scaled back or even completely eliminated online multiplayer from the time they spend playing video games.

I suppose the ongoing coronavirus situation makes it easier than usual to schedule online multiplayer sessions with other people, but that's only a temporary thing and would return to normal in the future.

Yeah, I figured if any game would win easily, it'd be Smash.

bracket votes + the smash early vote is a scary combo. I don’t think this is over yet but I’d rather have Smash of course

transcience posted...

bracket votes + the smash early vote is a scary combo. I don’t think this is over yet but I’d rather have Smash of course

get ready to give Spidey credit

nah

(and we’ll never know, thanks zelda)

like I said

not so fast now

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7462-best-of-2018-playstation-4

SM didn't really do that bad in the GotY polls. What did they project SM would get on SSBU?

Mac Arrowny posted...

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7462-best-of-2018-playstation-4

SM didn't really do that bad in the GotY polls. What did they project SM would get on SSBU?

Like 35%

Welp, this was fun while it lasted.

glad I stuck to my gut on Smash

Well I was right that whatever won was gonna win by a decent margin

I just backed the wrong horse cuz I'm a big thicky booboo

last R4 guest sign-ups open

see yall next topic

The Nintendo hierarchy holds firm

Play Persona 4 Golden