Game of the Decade: 2010-2019 Contest Analysis Crew - Part 4
GameFAQs Contests
- Master Moltar (38)
- Board List
- Topic List
- Track Topic
- Topic Closed
Looks like the rule of "Never trust GTA in a close match" still applies. |
Ulti's enjoying this I'm sure. Another to add to GTA's list of chokes. I voted for P4G despite having GTAV in my bracket because from what I've heard GTAV has some REALLY dumb stuff in it. "Nothing I could do!" -Darksydephil |
do you, like, ever experience anything for yourself If you wake up at a different time, in a different place, could you wake up as a different person? #theresafreakingghostafterus |
I
have a hard time committing to games nowadays. I keep losing interest
fairly quickly. Last year I got halfway through Final Fantasy VII
before getting stuck on a tough boss and I just never returned to the
game. "Nothing I could do!" -Darksydephil |
yeah, this one looks wrapped. looks like another indie misleads us. I wonder if that Mario result is even any good. xyzzy |
transience posted... yeah, this one looks wrapped. looks like another indie misleads us. I wonder if that Mario result is even any good. How much do you think Odyssey would need to get on GTAV to beat Smash? |
51% because smash sucks (probably like 62%? gta is weird) add the c and back away iphonesience |
Well, that would give Cuphead a 55/45 win over Shovel Knight, which probably sounds about right. |
Assuming Odyssey didn't SFF Shovel Knight, which I'm not convinced of "Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and hellboy" - trancer1 lol xstats |
Previous Results: SSBU puts up a somewhat disappointing number on Spider-Man. SMO goes hard as expected on Shovel Knight. Crew Predictions: 96/102 Next Round Thoughts: Should be interesting. SSBU has had stronger opponents, so it hasn't looked as good going in. Odyssey is looking strong enough to have a fair shot at winning this match. Crew Prediction Challenge: Moltar: 95 Kleenex: 94 Leonhart: 91 transience: 90 Guest: 82 Crew Accuracy Challenge: Leon gets the point for SSBU and SMO. Moltar: 28 transience: 20 Leonhart: 17 Kleenex: 17 Guest: 16 (spooky96, Hbthebattle (3), Black Turtle, ctes (2), MetalmindStats (2), MechanicalWall (2), Kotetsu, pjbasis, Nintendogs, SuperNiceDog, FFDragon) Moltar Status: hype Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
I always frontload my accuracy points and then never get any the second half of the contest |
Round 3 – The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt vs. Super Mario Galaxy 2 Moltar’s Analysis The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt Round 1 – 84.07% vs. Assassin's Creed Odyssey Round 2 – 78.40% vs. Mass Effect 3 Super Mario Galaxy 2 Round 1 – 87.25% vs. Return of the Obra Dinn Round 2 – 64.09% vs. Stardew Valley Hey it’s the first real test for Witcher! We know it’s one of the strongest non-Japanese/Nintendo/Square games and has no problem beating up western-RPGs and action games. It’s looked like a god in the earlier rounds, but those are opponents that it can easily overperform against because the audience that plays those games is similar. Now we’re finally going to see it take on something from the opposite end of the spectrum where there is far less overlap. In 2015, this is a 50-50 match. Oh how the times have changed. Witcher should be much stronger than it was in 2015 due to a variety of reasons. Higher playrate, more appreciation from it’s fans, ~Netflix boost~, etc. Mario Galaxy 2 should more or less be the same since Mario games are pretty evergreen like that. I think 60% is the number to watch for here and I’ll go with that as a prediction. That’s what Skyrim would be projected to get on Mario Galaxy 2. Anything higher than that and Witcher is pretty much confirmed to have boosted to elite status on GameFAQs. Moltar’s Bracket: The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt Moltar’s Prediction: The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt – 60% ____________________________________________________________________________ transience’s Analysis I'm really excited to see this match as it will likely clue us in on how the bottom half will go. Through two rounds, two games have stood out above the others - Breath of the Wild and Witcher 3. Witcher 3's performances are good enough to mark it as the clear favourite over Skyrim -- if you believe that they're legit, of course. Assassin's Creed has reasons to suck and the Mass Effect 2/Fallout 4 match gave us reason to doubt Witcher 3/Mass Effect 3. There are only about 6 or 7 big WRPGs and fans of those games play them all, so it makes sense that there would be overlap. There seems to be a hierarchy at play too. Let's make a tier list! I'll keep it to games this decade so we don't get too carried away. Top: Witcher 3, Skyrim High: Mass Effect 2 Mid: Horizon: Zero Dawn (if it counts), Fallout: New Vegas, Fallout 4, Diablo 3 Low: Mass Effect 3, Divinity: Original Sin 2 That was fun. All of that is to say that Super Mario Galaxy 2 is the first real match that Witcher 3 is facing. W3 has the suggestions of a very strong game but we need to see it go big on Galaxy 2 before saying anything definitive. Galaxy 2 isn't strong -- one of the biggest contest mistakes you can make is to equate Odyssey and Galaxy 2. Galaxy 2 has already lost to Mass Effect and its performance against Stardew wasn't exactly inspiring. If Witcher 3 is truly legit, it needs to go for 60%+. Anything less and Skyrim probably deserves favourite status (though we may feel otherwise when MK8 embarrasses it next round). transience's prediction: The Witcher 3 with 60.33% ____________________________________________________________________________ Leonhart’s Analysis The Witcher 3 has been as dominant as anything not named Breath of the Wild thus far, but this is its first real test. We know what Super Mario Galaxy 2 is. It’s a mainline Mario game that can definitely be beaten by games with real strength, as we saw in 2015 where it lost to Mass Effect 1. It isn’t going to win matches against good competition simply because it’s Mario. How high can Witcher 3 go here? How high does it need to go to make it look like the favorite to make the finals? We’ve been excusing its first two opponents as ideal matchups, but that’s not the case here. I’d honestly be impressed with anything over 60% here. If Galaxy 2 makes Witcher 3 look “normal,” then that’d open the door back up for Skyrim to reclaim the mantle. I’m not totally sold on Witcher 3 yet, but it can make me a believer here. Leonhart’s Vote: Super Mario Galaxy 2 Leonhart’s Prediction: The Witcher 3 with 59.17% ____________________________________________________________________________ Kleenex’s Analysis Yesterday’s matches were a little crazy (probably...ignore this if they’re both blowouts), but today should be a little more tame. Both of these games have actually impressed quite a bit in their first two rounds. The only problem? Galaxy 2’s matches were both against indie games. Despite Galaxy looking good on paper, there probably isn’t much of a match here. Witcher 3 has looked much better thus far, and very much appearing to be the favorite to make the finals from the bottom half of the bracket. Galaxy should put up a decent fight, but I don’t expect this’ll be all that close. Kleenex’s Prediction: The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt with 61.75% ____________________________________________________________________________ Guest’s Analysis – ctes Pre-contest there was some discussion about a potential Super Mario Galaxy 2 upset here, though not many went with it. Obra Dihn getting absolutely destroyed didn't exactly stop this discussing, though Witcher 3 exceeded expectation as well, but that could've been SFF. I don't see any way The Witcher 3 drops this match. Against Odyssey, we could discuss it, but there's no contest. This is however its chance to prove itself for real. So far, it's been destroyed some controversial games from not too well-standing series. Being a finalist favorite is a lot more due to Skyrim looking unimpressive. Galaxy 2 isn't huge, but it's very well-liked. I think Witcher ends up looking fine and win safely, but I'm thinking SMG2 ends up looking good on the other side of the contest. The Witcher 3 - 58.66% Super Mario Galaxy 2 - 41.34% ____________________________________________________________________________ Crew Consensus: Mario Galaxy runs out of lives. Moltar Status: hype Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
just curious, what do you guys think Three Houses would get on Galaxy 2? add the c and back away iphonesience |
I
feel Witcher 3 is gonna surprise here. It very well could reach mid-60s
and I wouldn't be surprised, the Stardew result did not impress at all
now that GTAV is choking after breaking 60 on Cuphead, on top of ME3
getting fodderized. Anything less than 60 would be massively disappointing at this point, and I'll hold myself to that. If
you're only on this board to whine about "SJWs", please redirect
whatever you type on to the nearest trash can. And hop in after it. |
I wanted to go mid-60s but backed off at the last second. add the c and back away iphonesience |
So basically, SMG2 = Mass Effect 1. Could Witcher 3 65-35 ME1? All the stars in the sky are waiting for you. |
transcience posted... just curious, what do you guys think Three Houses would get on Galaxy 2? Indirectly? I feel like it would be doing about the same as Xenoblade, maybe a little better. |
transcience posted... just curious, what do you guys think Three Houses would get on Galaxy 2?low-to-mid 40s? i'm thinking it's not all that far off from awakening at this point Moltar Status: hype Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
Leonhart4 posted... Indirectly? I feel like it would be doing about the same as Xenoblade, maybe a little better. hmm. that’s higher than I would go for Galaxy 2. I think Xenoblade is competing with Mass Effect 2, not ME1. add the c and back away iphonesience |
Eh, maybe. I don't know what to make of Fire Emblem this year. Xenoblade could be SFFing it a bit, too. |
I
think, until proven otherwise, Xenoblade rocks Division 2 and competes
in 6/7. This result is huge. For reference RE2 gets like 57% on FE
Awakening indirectly and I still take Three Houses over Awakening by a
good margin. It's Reyn Time. |
I wonder how much more vanilla P4 would be getting here. Maybe people just don't have the integrity to not for a Vita port they never played , even if they did play GTAV. |
I
agree. Xenoblade could have done a lot of damage in a different spot.
this might be an overreaction but I think it's in the next tier of
games, after Witcher 3/Skyrim/Odyssey/Smash. it's in the discussion with
Dark Souls, Persona 5, Nier, Pokemon, etc. xyzzy |
I still doubt Xenoblade's chances of competing with some of those at least. At least Persona 5 and Dark Souls. I think division 2 is the place it could do real damage. Or if against something like The Last of Us or Portal etc. I also don't think Three Houses is all too far ahead of Awakening. Guinness Book of World Records is the name of the diary that belongs to Advokaiser, the winner of the Character Battle X guru contest. |
I
want to see what Xenoblade does next round. Like I said, there's a
chance this is a bit of an overperformance. Its performances certainly
indicate an elite ranking (within the parameters of this contest, of
course), but it hasn't faced a known quantity yet. Next round it will. |
Leon
to the rescue! Leon, what does RE2/Xenoblade look like based on Three
Houses/RE2? extra credit for setting 2020 Awakening as equal to 2020
Three Houses as well. I’m thinking that’s like 55/45 and 52/48,
depending on how you handle the Bloodborne rally. add the c and back away iphonesience |
wait, are you saying Three Houses isn’t a known quantity, or are you claiming this is a Witcher/ME3-like result? add the c and back away iphonesience |
Leonhart4 posted... I want to see what Xenoblade does next round. Like I said, there's a chance this is a bit of an overperformance. Its performances certainly indicate an elite ranking (within the parameters of this contest, of course), but it hasn't faced a known quantity yet. Next round it will. What known quantity is it facing next round? All the stars in the sky are waiting for you. |
transcience posted... Leon to the rescue! Leon, what does RE2/Xenoblade look like based on Three Houses/RE2? extra credit for setting 2020 Awakening as equal to 2020 Three Houses as well. I’m thinking that’s like 55/45 and 52/48, depending on how you handle the Bloodborne rally. Based on the GOTY poll, Xenoblade wins with 56.46% Setting Awakening = Three Houses straight up, Xenoblade wins with 52%, but it'll be closer to a toss up once you toss out the Bloodborne rallies. |
transcience posted... wait, are you saying Three Houses isn’t a known quantity, or are you claiming this is a Witcher/ME3-like result? I'm talking known quantity in terms of having contest results. We know GOTY polls don't always line up with contest results. Mac Arrowny posted... What known quantity is it facing next round? I think Golden is close enough to P4 that you can consider it a known quantity. I don't think vanilla would be doing notably better here. |
And
I think that's probably one of the bigger revelations of the contest.
Ports and remakes usually get punished in GOTY, but that doesn't seem to
be the case here. |
I
think year is so much easier to pinpoint than decade. how many people
look at P4G and say, “oh, well that was 2012 but the original was late
2008. not voting for that!” I took P4 to the quarterfinals based on just assuming people wouldn’t care, and because I just didn’t trust any of the other games. turns out I was right except for Xenoblade which outdid my highest expectation. (it actually met my 2015 expectations but then 2015 happened) add the c and back away iphonesience |
Yeah,
that's what I originally had but I chickened out because I was afraid
of the potential backlash against it not "belonging" or being a port
most of the site didn't actually play. |
Whatever 'ew port' backlash P4G is getting might get negated by 'ew GTA' feelings that clearly run through this site. But regardless of that I also took P4G to quarterfinals bc at the end of the day, I felt ppl were just gonna go 'yay Persona what a good game'. And that's been substantiated so far. If
you're only on this board to whine about "SJWs", please redirect
whatever you type on to the nearest trash can. And hop in after it. |
MechanicalWall posted... Whatever 'ew port' backlash P4G is getting might get negated by 'ew GTA' feelings that clearly run through this site. I don't think there is any 'ew port' backlash. |
Round 3 – Fallout: New Vegas vs. God of War Moltar’s Analysis Fallout: New Vegas Round 1 – 79.40% vs. The Stanley Parable Round 2 – 53.96% vs. Dark Souls III God of War Round 1 – 84.92% vs. The Talos Principle Round 2 – 74.46% vs. Nioh Finding it hard to care a lot about this match. God of War just seems like a bigger deal, even though New Vegas is liked a lot. This match isn’t going to be a stomp but Fallout isn’t the game to challenge GoW here, especially after struggling with Dark Souls 3 last round. That game looks to be a step behind the original DS and even Bloodborne. Moltar’s Bracket: God of War Moltar’s Prediction: God of War – 57% ____________________________________________________________________________ transience’s Analysis I actually had New Vegas winning this match until a few hours before lockdown. Phew! New Vegas didn't impress in the last round against Dark Souls 3. I don't know if it got a rally or what, but the split between our registered and unregistered users was pretty big. New Vegas limps to the finish line without our unregistered users coming into the picture. I think it's safe to say that New Vegas is a far distance away from Fallout 3. It's probably better than Fallout 4, but maybe not by a significant margin. God of War fascinates me because the original games aren't that great and I feel like this site would be resistant to trying a new kind of game with the God of War name. It's looked good facing weaklings and other inferior action games, but how is it going to do against New Vegas which is more of this site's kind of game? Its main claim to fame is that match against Smash Ultimate, but I've never bought into recent Smash games being all that strong. God of War wins here, but does it go big? I feel like it should get 60% based on the Dark Souls match but I'm a little bearish on it, so I'll drop down a bit. transience's prediction: God of War with 55.31% ____________________________________________________________________________ Leonhart’s Analysis God of War has looked good but not great in its first two matches, but I’m not too worried about it dropping this match. I haven’t been all that impressed with New Vegas thus far. It’s been good enough, but I don’t think super highly of Dark Souls III. I’d personally take Super Mario Galaxy 2 over New Vegas, so if God of War wants to show it has any chance next round, it needs to outdo Witcher 3’s number. I don’t think it will though, sadly to say for my bracket! Leonhart’s Vote: God of War Leonhart’s Prediction: God of War with 57.90% ____________________________________________________________________________ Kleenex’s Analysis Much like the first match today, both games here have looked “pretty good” so far, but God of War has decidedly been better. I will say, I’m still a little unconvinced about God of War’s real strength (stop me if you’ve heard this before). I don’t think Nioh is worth all that much and Talos Principle has to be in the running for weakest game in the bracket, so that tempers my view of those first two rounds slightly. Still, I see no reason to doubt GoW takes this match down fairly comfortably - though I suspect Fallout may put up a better fight than some are expecting. Kleenex’s Prediction: God of War with 55.75% ____________________________________________________________________________ Guest’s Analysis – pjbasis So I took New Vegas all the way to the semifinals in my bracket because FO3 is a monster. When there's favorite Fallout topics, NV almost ties 3 for people's favorite! Obviously it's not going to be 3, but I don't think NV's strength would be too far below, and it's clearly far ahead of FO4. Of course I badly underestimated Witcher, but do God of War's blowouts scare me? Not too much. I still can't see gamefaqs siding with some Action game for dude bros who grew up over an actual RPG. Maybe not one with a J, but we're still expecting one of these to the finals. Fallout: New Vegas - 52% ____________________________________________________________________________ Crew Consensus: Most of us are going with God of War, but our Guest is backing Fallout. Moltar Status: hype Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
Master Moltar posted... I still can't see gamefaqs siding with some Action game for dude bros who grew up over an actual RPGFunny thing is that they bolted a fuckton of RPG bullshit onto GoW 2018 so it's a lot closer to an RPG than the previous entries. If
you're only on this board to whine about "SJWs", please redirect
whatever you type on to the nearest trash can. And hop in after it. |
It's
possible that Dark Souls 3 is better than we think and Nioh is really
bad. Probably not enough to make up the difference though. |
MechanicalWall posted... Funny thing is that they bolted a fuckton of RPG bullshit onto GoW 2018 so it's a lot closer to an RPG than the previous entries. oh well fuck me |
Well
to be clear it's still at heart an action game, but there is so much
equipment, ability, perk, crafting crap that the game introduces that
you can feasibly call it an action RPG. If
you're only on this board to whine about "SJWs", please redirect
whatever you type on to the nearest trash can. And hop in after it. |
I feel ya. I know this god of war is pretty different and probably closer to this sites sensibilities than the past ones too. |
thanks guest I'll take the highest prediction this time |
and I'll take the lowest hey, original God of War has experience points and skill trees! xyzzy |
Yah
but you just dumped points into a weapon and got a new move, no fuss.
2018 has eighteen layers of menus to sift through every half hour to
make sure you're marginally better at making things dead If
you're only on this board to whine about "SJWs", please redirect
whatever you type on to the nearest trash can. And hop in after it. |
yeah I know, I wasn't being serious xyzzy |
MechanicalWall posted... Yah but you just dumped points into a weapon and got a new move, no fuss. 2018 has eighteen layers of menus to sift through every half hour to make sure you're marginally better at making things dead as it should be |
That makes me want to play 2018 God of War! Kampfmaschine Advokaiser punched my lights out in the 2018 Guru. My bracket was soft... just like my heart! |
2018 God of War is fantastic in every single way. The final Undisputed Champion in UCA history. |
Topic Sticky
Update Topic Flair
- Master Moltar (38)
- Board List
- Topic List
- Track Topic
- Topic Closed