Game of the Decade: 2010-2019 Contest Analysis Crew - Part 4
GameFAQs Contests
- Master Moltar (38)
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I
feel like this contest more than most others has good and bad
divisions. divisions 2, 4 and 8 are good, and divisions 3, 6 and
especially 7 are bad. xyzzy |
Master Moltar posted... Previous Results: Zelda. ZELDA! 80% in Round 3, ain't nothing stopping that train. DQ struggles with MonHun in the meantime. Turns out it's not all that far removed from the Sekiro's and Bravely Default's of the contest. hahahahahahahahahaahahahahahahahaha @LeonhartFour I got a point. Vindication. SuperNiceChao about to win the Oracle 2020! TsunamiXXVIII and me will destroy all you noobs |
Please stop making unnecessary posts |
Leonhart4 posted... Please stop making unnecessary posts Why? I got my point hehehhehehehehe. You maddd???? SuperNiceChao about to win the Oracle 2020! TsunamiXXVIII and me will destroy all you noobs |
Congrats. Don't see the point in singling me out when I couldn't care less. |
Previous
Results: lol rallies, ME2 did fine against Horizon, but rallies made
Horizon perform a little better. RE2 would have had a small, but decent
gap between it and Bloodborne, but instead it was a back-and-forth all
day affair. Crew Predictions: 94/100 Next Round Thoughts: Should be a somewhat close match as neither game has looked far better than the other and rallying should be less of a factor. I still like ME2 right now, but a case that definitely be made for RE2. Crew Prediction Challenge: Moltar: 93 Kleenex: 92 Leonhart: 89 transience: 88 Guest: 80 Crew Accuracy Challenge: MechanicalWall gets the point for ME2, and FFDragon gets the point for RE2. Moltar: 28 transience: 20 Kleenex: 17 Guest: 16 (spooky96, Hbthebattle (3), Black Turtle, ctes (2), MetalmindStats (2), MechanicalWall (2), Kotetsu, pjbasis, Nintendogs, SuperNiceDog, FFDragon) Leonhart: 15 Moltar Status: hype Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
Master Moltar posted... FFDragon gets the point for RE2. small victories If you wake up at a different time, in a different place, could you wake up as a different person? #theresafreakingghostafterus |
augh guest sweep although I'm looking pretty good to sweep today myself! |
Round 3 – Grand Theft Auto V vs. Persona 4 Golden Moltar’s Analysis Grand Theft Auto V Round 1 – 79.27% vs. Baba Is You Round 2 – 60.26% vs. Cuphead Persona 4 Golden Round 1 – 77.77% vs. FTL: Faster Than Light Round 2 – 50.83% vs. Red Dead Redemption Alright back to some debatable matches. Both games have done fine to get here, and neither has looked bad. Maybe only 60% on Cuphead isn’t great with every other indie game looking horrible, but relative to GTAV’s expectations, that’s pretty solid! It’s not like Persona 4 Golden is some top tier game here, and Cuphead has actually had some decent poll results in the past, so I can buy it being more legit than most other indie games. I can imagine that RDR and GTAV share a similar audience, but that’s not saying that P4G will win this because it already beat RDR. I do think it shows that if people think P4G > RDR, a significant portion is likely to also prefer it over GTAV. Where the difference lies is that GTAV is a much bigger deal than RDR. It has more people to pull from, even on a site that’s as backwards as GameFAQs, and that’s what I think gives it the slight edge over P4G. Still, we are talking about a game that only broke 60% on Cuphead, and I’d easily take P4G and RDR to outperform that. The more I bring that up, the more worried about this match I am! Moltar’s Bracket: Grand Theft Auto V Moltar’s Prediction: Grand Theft Auto V – 53% ____________________________________________________________________________ transience’s Analysis This match has been killing me for a week now. It seems obvious -- I mean, Persona 4 probably didn't legitimately beat Red Dead Redemption while GTA really did a number to Cuphead, a game that some people were speculating might beat it. 60% seemed pretty legit, especially coupled with Persona needing some kind of weird porn rally apparently? I hate trusting the board with any of that stuff because everyone goes off the deep end, but yeah, sure, I could see it. But since then, I feel like every match has something that suggests Persona might give it a fight. Our indies have been bombing across the board now that Real Competition is in place, and 60% on Cuphead maybe isn't so great? Not all indies are created equal but it's hard not to link, say, Shovel Knight to Cuphead in some way. Cuphead has some legitimately impressive poll results so maybe that isn't fair to GTA, but it's been on my mind. Then there's the whole Remake Factor which honestly hasn't seemed to matter. Pokemon looks like a top 10 game and RE2 just went toe to toe with a rallied Bloodborne and pulled it out of its ass. Persona 5 looked good and we recently got Persona 5 Royal which may have brought a few fans back to the site. That suggests that Persona might be AOK. But more than anything, I just try to picture the fan who goes GTA5 > Persona 4 Golden > Red Dead. That doesn't seem too likely. I've always been on team Red Dead > GTA just due to the difference in narratives and settings, and while I'm walking that back a little after their round 2 performances, I wouldn't be totally surprised if Persona takes this in a similar manner to last round. It's certainly the more GameFAQsy game, and if it's close I could see the Persona community coming through again. GTA should definitely be the favourite here, but I'll stick with Persona just as a hunch. I get every other match wrong by the smallest of margins, so why not? transience's prediction: Persona 4 Golden with 50.44% ____________________________________________________________________________ Leonhart’s Analysis I’m conflicted on this match. I want Persona 4 Golden to win and I think the fact that it beat Red Dead Redemption at all (hentai rallies or not, which probably had a negligible effect on the match) means it has a real shot. However, I’ve always maintained that Grand Theft Auto V would be stronger than RDR, so if I’m being consistent with my own logic, I should pick it to win here! Plus, it’s what I’ve got in my bracket. While GTAV made short work of Cuphead last round, I don’t trust it to get a clutch win in a close match, and this should be close no matter how you look at it. I think I’ll stick with Grand Theft Auto V here, if only to provide hope for my bracket and avert a potential Crew Curse! I do have respect for its strength, and I think it’s mostly validated that up to this point. I’ll be rooting for P4G all the way though! Leonhart’s Vote: Persona 4 Golden Leonhart’s Prediction: Grand Theft Auto V with 52.98% ____________________________________________________________________________ Kleenex’s Analysis This match basically all comes down to one thing - would Red Dead beat GTAV? I...actually don’t think so. GTA is sort of hard to rate this year too. It has looked ‘sort of good’, but both of its results are behind indie games, which we now realize aren’t trustworthy, even if one of them is Cuphead. And we know GTA games are a liability on this site. It’s always been that way, and there’s no real reason for that to be any different today. I do think this is going to be another close match akin to Persona’s last round, but at the end of the day I’m sticking with the ‘GameFAQs’ game to win. Kleenex’s Prediction: Persona 4 Golden with 51.25% ____________________________________________________________________________ Guest’s Analysis – Sir Chris Fresh off of earning the platinum in Persona 5: Royal I am here to dispel the myth that GTA has a shot in this match. I get it, a lot of people think that strength is purely transitive and that means GTA's showing against HEAD OF CUP will mean something. But here's the thing, who the hell likes GTA but doesn't like RDR? Where's that crowd? Not on GameFAQs, that's where. Maybe those people exist since you know apparently GTA V has sold a billion copies or something, but on GameFAQs we live in simpler times. We like RPGs. Western. Turn Based. Action. Fake ones like Zelda. We enjoy our RPGs. GTA may have an RPG in it, but it is not in fact an RPG. I just don't think it can get the job done. I don't think it has what it takes to put down Persona. I have Persona winning this division over Xenoblade in the finals, a result I will gladly flip if I could turn back time, but I have actually avoided being burned by GTA most of the time unlike a lot of the site so I will take my chances here. Throw the numbers out of the window, numbers don't matter. Stats don't matter. This is a battle for the very heart and soul of this beautiful site and I am here to tell you right here, right now... GameFAQs will never be GTA land. EVER. Also full disclosure Persona 4: Golden is literally my favorite game of all time, dethroning my beloved Dragon Quest V and I don't think it belongs in the contest so that might screw it! I will of course vote for it every time, but really the true best game of the decade for my money is Skyrim which although looking weak will somehow beat Witcher you've just got to BELIEVE. I will set a record for being wrong twice on one write up...! Persona 4: Golden (IE best game ever) - 51.12% ____________________________________________________________________________ Crew Consensus: The Crew is split again! P4G is the slight favorite here. Moltar Status: hype Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
my chance to get back to tied with moltar |
whoa I thought I would be alone here add the c and back away iphonesience |
transcience posted... whoa I thought I would be alone here Same! I played both sides of helping my bracket with GTAV and averting a Crew Curse for P4! |
The numbers favour GTA here, but the logic for picking P4G to win is sound. "Nothing I could do!" -Darksydephil |
Round 3 – Xenoblade Chronicles vs. Fire Emblem: Three Houses Moltar’s Analysis Xenoblade Chronicles Round 1 – 78.43% vs. Splatoon 2 Round 2 – 73.32% vs. Overwatch Fire Emblem: Three Houses Round 1 – 66.66% vs. South Park: The Stick of Truth Round 2 – 62.24% vs. Ori and the Blind Forest Normally I’d like to side with my bracket, but that’s a hard sell for this match at this stage in the game. The simple facts are that FE has underwhelmed so far and Xenoblade has overperformed so far. This not only applies to the games here, but also to Awakening and XC2. At this point, Xenoblade looks like the bigger deal franchise on GameFAQs. Three Houses one hope is that there’s some weirdness in the Nintendo hierarchy and fans that have played both overwhelmingly side with FE. At this point though it looks more like the opposite will happen. I’d be more surprised by a FE win at this point instead of Xenoblade going wild here. Also quick addition post-RE2/Bloodborne here, but it looks like Three Houses might be equal to or only slightly stronger than Awakening. 46% on RE2 vs a projected 42% on RE2 through Bloodborne, and Bloodborne was boosted a few percent due to rallying. Moltar’s Bracket: Fire Emblem: Three Houses Moltar’s Prediction: Xenoblade Chronicles – 57% ____________________________________________________________________________ transience’s Analysis Every result thus far has pointed in this match going in a singular direction, and I'd be surprised if anyone went with Fire Emblem at this point. Well, besides Guest. Who knows what Guest will do with any match. Xenoblade has been killing it all contest and Fire Emblem not so much. I'm not sure if there's a general uptick in Xenoblade interest, if the upcoming remake/remaster has given it a shot in the arm, or if Fire Emblem just kinda sucks this year. Whatever the reason is, Xenoblade is walking into this match as the commanding favourite. It sucks, because I'm generally a believer in Xenoblade but not to the point where I'd pick against relatively direct contest results. I still believe that Three Houses > Awakening so this was a fairly easy pick to make, but I also believe that the 2019 GOTY entries are really overrated. If I had stuck with that line of thinking I would have gladly gone against Fire Emblem but it's hard to overcome a direct result like that with a series that has only gotten better over time. But still, here we are, and Xenoblade, despite a lackluster sequel, looks to be in a commanding position. I do have this tingle in the back of my mind about how I felt Xenoblade was an obvious pick in 2015 only for it to somehow lose to DKC2, and feeling like that could happen again. This is a Nintendo RPG battle so the fanbase could decide to go with Fire Emblem. But it's damn hard to pick it when Xenoblade has looked so good, you know? The only question is if it wins in a close one or shoots for the moon. I bet a lot of people are taking Xenoblade to win the division right now, and we'll see. transience's prediction: Xenoblade Chronicles with 54.95% ____________________________________________________________________________ Leonhart’s Analysis If Resident Evil 2 holds on here (there’s less than two hours to go and it’s basically 50/50 as I write this), I won’t have gotten a match wrong since Awakening lost to Bloodborne last round. I guess it would be fitting for either Bloodborne winning or Fire Emblem losing to bookend my streak! Xenoblade has exceeded expectations by quite a bit in both of its matches, but it’s possible that both of its opponents are just straight garbage (and maybe it got some SFF against Splatoon 2). This is when we’ll find out what it’s worth. Three Houses is on the opposite end of the spectrum in that it’s underwhelmed in both of its matches, but I’d wager all three of the other games in its fourpack would easily defeat the other three games in Xenoblade’s fourpack. That being said, I think Xenoblade has so much wiggle room here that it won’t matter. I’m not sure it’ll be quite the beatdown that maybe some people are expecting, but it should win without too much trouble. Leonhart’s Vote: Fire Emblem: Three Houses Leonhart’s Prediction: Xenoblade Chronicles with 55.86% ____________________________________________________________________________ Kleenex’s Analysis A few weeks ago, I think this was a pretty debatable match. After a couple less than stellar results from Fire Emblem, and a couple bangers from Xenoblade, it actually seems all but locked up in Xenoblade’s favor. Despite Three Houses being quite a big release last year, I think this site just doesn’t really care about Fire Emblem as much as we want to think it does. Xenoblade’s sudden ascension has me a little worried about where it really stands, but I do expect it to take care of business today without too much trouble. It’s definitely the favorite to win the division at this point. Kleenex’s Prediction: Xenoblade Chronicles with 55.75% ____________________________________________________________________________ Guest’s Analysis – Tsunami After a disappointing first-round showing, Fire Emblem: Three Houses was able to pull in over 60% against Ori and the Blind Forest. Xenoblade, however, was busy destroying Overwatch. Overwatch is the type of game that GameFAQs doesn’t like, only able to reach R2 because it drew an opponent even more unlikable, but still, the indication is that Xenoblade is stronger. Probably a lot stronger. I don’t want this to be true, but it is. And it doesn’t entirely make sense. In 2015, Xenoblade was barely stronger than Awakening! Granted, Awakening’s probably weaker now than it was then, because while a hated later entry usually makes the early ones look better, the fanbase looked at Fates and got mad at Awakening for being so successful and convincing IS that having parents and children playable side-by-side was the future of the franchise. Basically, “You caused this.” But Three Houses, even though it’s possibly even shippier than Awakening/Fates, has been largely devoid of that criticism. It’s also on the Switch, rather than a handheld (and again, it saddens me to no end that being on a handheld is considered a detriment—Nintendo owes a lot of their continued success to the fact that while they routinely lost the console wars, no one has ever come close to being able to beat out the Game Boy/DS lines), while Xenoblade is…a very late-stage Wii game. Which I guess is still better than being a Wii U game? Yeah, let’s go with that. The last Game of the Decade winner came from a console that is distinctly “’90s” in people’s minds. As far as most people are concerned, Nintendo’s consoles for the past decade are the Wii U and the Switch, and then there’s just these Wii games here. So as much as I want to take the upset here, I just can’t. (Yes, I know, FE3H is nearly a 4-to-1 favorite in the Guru. It’s not the case in the Oracle.) Xenoblade Chronicles with 54% ____________________________________________________________________________ Crew Consensus: Xenoblade hits a critical blow on FE. Moltar Status: hype Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
The crew curse I needed. The final Undisputed Champion in UCA history. |
boxed in again |
Huh, I thought at least one person would go 60+ here! We're all pretty close on this one! |
I went shopping today and the store had exactly one box of Kleenex, thanks for giving me that crew "Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything." |
I think it's more likely Xenoblade gets 60% than it is Fire Emblem wins at least Born to lose, live to win! |
I have a funny feeling about this one. prove me wrong Xenoblade add the c and back away iphonesience |
Ranticoot posted... I think it's more likely Xenoblade gets 60% than it is Fire Emblem wins at leastWe haven't seen Xenoblade against anything actually good. It's possible that Splatoon 2 is SFF and Overwatch is just garbo. If I could change my bracket to Xenoblade right now I would do it in a heartbeat, but I wouldn't be TOTALLY surprised if it isn't as strong as it's first two matches imply. It's Reyn Time. |
The
board vote might be fun and get some people freaking out because Fire
Emblem's board vote has been one of the best in the contest thus far,
and it'll have brackets on its side. |
speaking of board votes - GTA/Persona add the c and back away iphonesience |
Pre-contest,
and even after the first round, everyone was extremely happy to shit on
GTA, and all it's done has been possibly the most consistent game in
the division. Hasn't looked the best, of course, but it's just going
along, comfortably winning its matches without any fanfare. I guess Xenoblade has technically been "more consistent", but we've gotten almost exactly what we've expected out of GTA thus far, and I don't see why that won't continue tonight. The final Undisputed Champion in UCA history. |
something else to consider...any potential rally for either game in the other match is likely to favor Persona 4 pretty heavily. |
I think GTA wins by a few %, though it'll be interesting to see how long P4G holds on after the board vote. "Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything." |
transcience posted... speaking of board votes - GTA/Persona GTA has brackets, too! As much as we laugh at GTA for being a choke artist, people who've got it in their bracket will be voting for it! I think that's one big difference between GTA and RDR here. |
Xenoblade has all the makings of a paper tiger waiting to be exposed. It may beat Fire Emblem, but it won't look impressive. "Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and hellboy" - trancer1 lol xstats |
BlAcK TuRtLe posted... Xenoblade has all the makings of a paper tiger waiting to be exposed. It may beat Fire Emblem, but it won't look impressive. Shhhhh |
Fuck, there goes any hope of Fire Emblem winning. The final Undisputed Champion in UCA history. |
BlAcK TuRtLe posted... Xenoblade has all the makings of a paper tiger waiting to be exposed. It may beat Fire Emblem, but it won't look impressive. says the guy who picked Overwatch and talked it up after round 1 or this one from yesterday! BlAcK TuRtLe posted... 70 seems low for Smash here, I think this ends closee to a tripling add the c and back away iphonesience |
Called it! That Three Houses board vote. |
I hate it when you’re right! add the c and back away iphonesience |
Persona looks cooked here, bracket vote or not. add the c and back away iphonesience |
When you do trend charts long enough you get a sense of how these things go! |
FE is going to crumble, of course, but it just hit me that we might have eight 1 seeds in the quarters and that’s crazy. add the c and back away iphonesience |
GTA is closer than RDR was at the freeze but it also should have had more bracket votes. P4 can pull this out. |
what on earth was that update |
Yep, Xenoblade ain't winning this division, if it can even get past the inevitable hentai rallies "Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and hellboy" - trancer1 lol xstats |
The Mana Sword posted... what on earth was that update Told you that Fire Emblem's board vote has been the best out there so far |
Persona feeling safe-ish here |
nah,
I don’t think it’s safe at all. Persona has a good hour here and then
it’s going to struggle. it might win but it’ll be a huge stall out. but if it gets a similar type of rally? yeah it should be okay add the c and back away iphonesience |
KamikazePotato posted... We haven't seen Xenoblade against anything actually good. It's possible that Splatoon 2 is SFF and Overwatch is just garbo. If I could change my bracket to Xenoblade right now I would do it in a heartbeat, but I wouldn't be TOTALLY surprised if it isn't as strong as it's first two matches imply. I mean, technically we haven't seen this particular game against anything strong. I don't remember exactly when I wrote my write-up, but I feel like Arkham City doing better in Round 2 against Bioshock Infinite than it did in R1 against Xenoblade Chronicles 2 is another reason why XBC had the clear advantage. I'm always happy to not be boxed in, though I doubt I'll actually get the accuracy point. I can hope! For once, I've actually played both games in this match, and it's not close which one I like more. Also known as Cyberchao X. (edited 4/22/2020 7:43:02 PM) |
team rdr > gta feels like a good team right now we'll see if it holds xyzzy |
transience posted... team rdr > gta feels like a good team right now I mean, it's basically going to wind up being a push, so it'd just come down to which game the fanbase prefers and which game had the brackets (which would be GTA), which is something these results won't tell us unless GTA comes back to win. I think P4G can pull this off at this point though. |
looks like we've hit the point where GTA pushes back. time for 21 hours of holding on to your butts xyzzy |
P4G's lead on RDR at this point was 138. It's 341 now. |
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