Game of the Decade: 2010-2019 Contest Analysis Crew - Part 4
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FFDragon posted... How long before the matches get punted to tomorrow? 2 hours tops, right? I'd say 4 hours at the most. Any longer would mean starting the matches past midnight Eastern. The matches already started, being delayed by 2 hours, 11 minutes. Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as Advokaiser, Guru Champ! |
feeling like both RE2 and BB beat ME2 xyzzy |
ME2 is doing better than I personally thought This should be good enough for it to be safe If
you're only on this board to whine about "SJWs", please redirect
whatever you type on to the nearest trash can. And hop in after it. |
I just try to picture a world where Horizon beats FE or Doom and I’m not feeling it add the c and back away iphonesience |
transcience posted... I just try to picture a world where Horizon beats FE or Doom and I’m not feeling it I can easily see it beating Awakening. That game is absolutely nothing special. Horizon is also more of this site's type of game than DOOM. |
I would take Horizon over those pretty easily. It's Reyn Time. |
maybe I’m alone then division 2 has baffled me all contest so why not another round add the c and back away iphonesience |
transcience posted... maybe I’m alone then Well, I actually respect Horizon and 2017 games as a whole, so I don't have that issue. But I also have zero respect for Fire Emblem in general at the moment. |
RE2 looks good so far but I’m not trusting any early result with how this started add the c and back away iphonesience |
I
am paralyzed in fear of posting about the match either way, because
those two hours of votes are still going to come in at some point and I
have no idea which way they would have went. If you wake up at a different time, in a different place, could you wake up as a different person? #theresafreakingghostafterus |
Previous
Results: Zelda. ZELDA! 80% in Round 3, ain't nothing stopping that
train. DQ struggles with MonHun in the meantime. Turns out it's not all
that far removed from the Sekiro's and Bravely Default's of the contest. Crew Predictions: 92/98 Next Round Thoughts: Zelda scores what looks to be at least another 75% blowout. Crew Prediction Challenge: Kleenex: 91 Moltar: 91 transience: 87 Leonhart: 87 Guest: 78 Crew Accuracy Challenge: SuperNiceDog gets the point for Zelda, and Leon gets the point for DQ. Moltar: 28 transience: 20 Kleenex: 17 Leonhart: 15 Guest: 14 (spooky96, Hbthebattle (3), Black Turtle, ctes (2), MetalmindStats (2), MechanicalWall, Kotetsu, pjbasis, Nintendogs, SuperNiceDog) Moltar Status: hype Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
I picked BB and all but would rather it won legitimately add the c and back away iphonesience (edited 4/21/2020 6:20:26 AM) |
The rally was locked down, so it might lose after all. Guinness Book of World Records is the name of the diary that belongs to Advokaiser, the winner of the Character Battle X guru contest. |
Looking like RE2 is going to wind up winning now, but wow, that rally really tanked ME2. |
Leonhart4 posted... Looking like RE2 is going to wind up winning now, but wow, that rally really tanked ME2. Master Moltar posted... But one last thing. The adjacent match is RE2 vs Bloodborne, and we've seen BB rally against a game it was already comfortably winning against. Horizon seemed to get quite a bit of the spillover, which makes sense as it's a PS4 exclusive stablemate and people take that seriously (lol). IF that happens again and Horizon is even just a slight favorite for the spillover, that might make things a little tense.I done called this. If I get the accuracy point because of this... lmao If
you're only on this board to whine about "SJWs", please redirect
whatever you type on to the nearest trash can. And hop in after it. (edited 4/21/2020 9:10:50 AM) |
Round 3 – Super Smash Bros. Ultimate vs. Marvel's Spider-Man Moltar’s Analysis Super Smash Bros. Ultimate Round 1 – 82.98% vs. Tekken 7 Round 2 – 64.06% vs. The Legend of Zelda: A Link Between Worlds Marvel's Spider-Man Round 1 – 69.93% vs. Dead Space 2 Round 2 – 57.65% vs. Minecraft This is going to be a snooze. Spider-Man pulled 2015 Halo numbers against Minecraft last round, which is nowhere near enough to try and challenge Smash. That’s not even be good enough to escape the doubling here, as Smash is one of the strongest games still left in this bracket. Moltar’s Bracket: Super Smash Bros. Ultimate Moltar’s Prediction: Super Smash Bros. Ultimate – 70% ____________________________________________________________________________ transience’s Analysis I assume this match starts at the usual 8pm start time...? We could skip division 3, honestly, because it has two very obvious winners. Smash Ultimate should put a beating on Spider-Man. It's just in a different class of game, popularity wise. The only thing that makes me pause ever so slightly is that infamous Ultimate/God of War match where Ultimate struggled. Spider-Man isn't on GOW's level but it's a well-liked game with very little to hate. Ultimate should do some work here but this is the first real match we've seen Ultimate in, so it'll be fun to speculate. transience's prediction: Super Smash Bros. Ultimate with 68.56% ____________________________________________________________________________ Leonhart’s Analysis This entire day is all about seeing which game can flex the hardest going into the big showdown next round. Odyssey won round 1, but round 2 was kind of a push, although Ultimate was definitely facing the stronger game. It’s probably facing the stronger game this time around, too. Spider-Man has put up two decent performances, but it hasn’t looked good enough for me to say it’s not getting killed here. I’m kinda conflicted here because I want Spider-Man to look as good as possible, but I also need Smash to look good going into next round! Leonhart’s Vote: Marvel’s Spider-Man Leonhart’s Prediction: Super Smash Bros. Ultimate with 65.37% ____________________________________________________________________________ Kleenex’s Analysis Both of today’s matches are pretty damn straightforward compared to whatever nonsense is happening in division 2 currently. Spider-Man looked...fine against Minecraft, I guess? I still don’t know where to rate Minecraft because the DOTA match is totally worthless. In any event, I expect Spidey to end up looking pretty bad here. As I’ve said before, it seems like the type of game that folds against something with any modicum of strength, and, well, it’s facing Smash. Kleenex’s Prediction: Super Smash Bros. Ultimate with 70.50% ____________________________________________________________________________ Guest’s Analysis – Sniperdog117 I just realized that I seem to always do the write-ups for Smash Ultimate. Kinda boring path until maaaaaybe next round, but it is cool. SSBU failed to double ALBW, which actually held up pretty well vs its fellow Nintendo opponent. There was probably some SFF, which makes holding SSBU to 65% a really good result. ALBW is probably the third strongest game in it’s division, behind SSBU and SMO, which really makes it’s bracket position suck. Oh ya, this match is about SSBU vs Spider-man. Both 2018 games! So I can look at the GOTY polls for reference… uh, it was close with DQXI and RDR2 in the “Best of Playstation poll.” These polls are not the most useful, but we know those two games are not that strong. We do have actual poll data, which shows Spider-man going 57-43 with Minecraft of all games. Which is not this site’s kind of game, so that is a bad look for Spider-man. I feel like ALBW would beat Spider-man pretty handily, so I expect SSBU to have a better performance than last round. Super Smash Bros Ultimate- 69% Spider-man- 31% ____________________________________________________________________________ Crew Consensus: This spider gets smashed. Moltar Status: hype Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
Hmmm...Something
to consider if Bloodborne pulls this out is that it won't be able to
rally next round, which would be to ME2's benefit. |
Round 3 – Shovel Knight vs. Super Mario Odyssey Moltar’s Analysis Octopath Traveler Round 1 – 53.29% vs. Undertale Round 2 – 50.36% vs. Octopath Traveler Super Mario Odyssey Round 1 – 85.97% vs. Mortal Kombat 11 Round 2 – 71.31% vs. Devil May Cry 5 Time for the last indie to fall. If Hollow Knight was equal to FFXV, which then went on to get only 20% on Zelda, I don’t expect Shovel Knight to be in contention to beat Odyssey, even if it does get a 23rd hour rally like last time. A Mario game is also a much worse match-up for it. Moltar’s Bracket: Super Mario Odyssey Moltar’s Prediction: Super Mario Odyssey – 70% ____________________________________________________________________________ transience’s Analysis Shovel Knight is probably weaker than Spider-Man? That will be the key to debating the top half's biggest match. I can't envision a world where Octopath beats Spider-Man (as it should have beaten Shovel Knight) but maybe I should cut that out because I've slandered Octopath every round and it hasn't worked out. At some point I have to give it its due. Shovel Knight is weird in that it's kind of like Mega Man in terms of being off-brand Nintendo. I could see a top tier Mario game (by this contest's standards) doing a bit of work to poor little Shovel Knight. Mario should probably get a higher percentage than Smash here if it wants to be in contention, but we saw a similar match in Galaxy 2/Stardew recently and it failed to get even a doubling. Odyssey's better than Galaxy 2 (theoretically) and SK is probably worse, but it's possible that Mario lays an egg here. transience's prediction: Super Mario Odyssey with 71.04% ____________________________________________________________________________ Leonhart’s Analysis Believe it or not, Shovel Knight and Mario Kart 8 are the only seeds lower than 5 to make it to round 3! This has been a really chalky bracket so far (though that might be about to change), and today will be no exception. The indies largely got exposed last round, but Shovel Knight managed to barely survive thanks to a timely developer tweet. Its luck has run out here though, as Super Mario Odyssey is a pretty bad matchup for it. I think there’s some potential for an overperformance here, but at the very least, Odyssey needs to outdo Smash Ultimate’s number here because I think most of us would take Spider-Man over Shovel Knight (but maybe not!). Leonhart’s Vote: Super Mario Odyssey Leonhart’s Prediction: Super Mario Odyssey with 72.18% ____________________________________________________________________________ Kleenex’s Analysis Shovel Knight sucks. Octopath stucks. Undertale sucks. Dragon’s Dogma sucks. That 4-pack was weak as well and Odyssey kind of destroyed both its first two opponents. It will do the same here. Kleenex’s Prediction: Super Mario Odyssey with 71.25% ____________________________________________________________________________ Guest’s Analysis – Ranticoot Mario Odyssey is the worst possible opponent for Shovel Knight. BotW and even Smash (which Shovel Knight is in!) would be better. Shovel Knight is a nice colorful platformer that takes heavy influence from a lot of classic Nintendo games, including Mario. Odyssey isn't the Mario game SK is inspired by but you'd be hard pressed to find a person that loves SK who does not also love Mario games. I think if SK can avoid getting tripled, that's....good? Rant's prediction - Super Mario Odyssey with 74.45% ____________________________________________________________________________ Crew Consensus: Mario buries Shovel Knight Moltar Status: hype Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
Kleenex boxed in |
Actually we're all kind of boxed in. Everyone's predictions are within 4.5% of each other. |
I could see Shovel Knight getting eaten alive here. Games like that really need non-Nintendo opponents to look good. It's Reyn Time. (edited 4/21/2020 3:46:27 PM) |
let's go 80% today's match seems feels awfully mario/crono 2003! let's go 50.05% xyzzy |
KamikazePotato posted... I could see Shovel Knight getting eaten alive here. Games like that really need non-Nintendo opponents to look good. I kinda think this as well, but how worried should I be about a dev rally jacking up a high prediction? Kampfmaschine Advokaiser punched my lights out in the 2018 Guru. My bracket was soft... just like my heart! |
If Yacht Club Games tries to rally like they said I could see Shovel Knight looking respectable. Guinness Book of World Records is the name of the diary that belongs to Advokaiser, the winner of the Character Battle X guru contest. (edited 4/21/2020 4:42:18 PM) |
oh yeah I forgot about that well, it won't matter in the long run if it's 69% or 64% or whatever xyzzy |
Nah, I don't think it gets below 60% at the absolute worst, but I could see it making SMO drop quite a bit of percentage. Guinness Book of World Records is the name of the diary that belongs to Advokaiser, the winner of the Character Battle X guru contest. |
I think Odyssey would be a hard game to rally against for Shovel Knight. They appeal to the same type of audience. |
Odyssey
probably has an easier time rallying against Shovel Knight than the
reverse! Not unless you get another direct developer tweet or whatever. I
can easily see the Shovel Knight reddit going "I mean yeah our game is
good but it's against Mario Odyssey". It's Reyn Time. |
Yeah, but the developer straight up said they'd attempt again next round. If it was just the reddit I'd find it almost completely negligible judging from last round. Guinness Book of World Records is the name of the diary that belongs to Advokaiser, the winner of the Character Battle X guru contest. (edited 4/21/2020 5:21:59 PM) |
I'm sure they'll try, but I doubt it makes a lot of impact. |
70 seems low for Smash here, I think this ends closee to a tripling "Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and hellboy" - trancer1 lol xstats |
the bracket favorite always wins these matches add the c and back away iphonesience |
bloodborne more like bloodded "Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything." |
this is definitely one that was decided by double votes! add the c and back away iphonesience |
in other words the anti-rally measures do their job |
The
real anti-rally measure is to take any votes that came from a reddit
referral and ignore them. make it look like they went through, but not
actually count them. Without Reddit, there is no rally potential "Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and hellboy" - trancer1 lol xstats |
Smash always falls pretty hard from the opening this isn’t great. someone extrapolate the first 5 minutes compared to 2015 minecraft, if that’s a thing. and that’s best case scenario. add the c and back away iphonesience |
transcience posted... Smash always falls pretty hard from the openingPuts Smash Ultimate equal to around MGS2 2015, assuming a lot of things (consistent Minecraft, not counting for rally spillover last round, ect) It's Reyn Time. |
yeah, obviously not perfect. Minecraft is about the only thing worth measuring against in the top half of div 3 though. I came into this contest thinking that feeding Smash or Mario to Zelda was a good thing, but I’m starting to wonder if putting it in the bottom half of the bracket would have been smarter. I’m definitely feeling like Witcher could beat Smash right now. add the c and back away iphonesience |
transcience posted... Smash always falls pretty hard from the opening this puts Minecraft above Bayonetta so either Smash SFF'd LBW (likely) or Minecraft is just stronger now |
also, glad RE2 won, but am extremely upset that I let Moltar get the lead on me in points |
I should start working on my Smash/Mario writeup now. it's gonna be a monster. is the break between rounds 3 and 4? xyzzy |
transience posted... I should start working on my Smash/Mario writeup now. it's gonna be a monster. Yep. |
more R3 guest slots available https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/78596579 Moltar Status: hype Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
Man, this division has been a snoozefest outside of Octopath Traveler and us freaking out about Odyssey's round 1 performance. |
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