Game of the Decade: 2010-2019 Contest Analysis Crew - Part 4

I don’t want to hear anyone talk up Hollow Knight as a legit game ever again

poor tales of berseria

transcience posted...

I don’t want to hear anyone talk up Hollow Knight as a legit game ever again

Hold that thought until BotW does this next round too (and maybe the round after that...?)

Witcher/Skyrim should be able to break 40%, though I wouldn't be surprised if they dont

oh god it went up

BotW has lost the board vote every round for the record

I might get me Guest prediction win! @LeonhartFour nervous???

Guest’s Analysis – SuperNiceDog

Ok so obviously The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild has not only this match wrapped up, but probably the contest based on last rounds' results, in what I think is one of the greatest 2nd round performances in contest history, 84.8% on Halo: Reach(!!). Maybe one of the strongest results in contest history period, to murder Halo like that.

It would I think at least be in the top 10 for greatest Round 2 performances in Contest History. That aside... ok so how much will it score on FF15? Last round, FF15 managed to barely squeak by Hollow Knight, with 50.4%. It is in for a rude awakening against the juggernaut of all juggernauts.

The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild wins with 80.4% of the vote.

^_^

Ok so the 80% on every game streak is already safe.

Does it hold the 85% streak too

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7610-whats-your-all-time-favorite-legend-of-zelda-console-game

scary stuff

ZeldaTPLink posted...

Ok so the 80% on every game streak is already safe.

Not safe yet!

Looks like I jynxed it.

Though the 75% streak can probably be held until the finals.

damn you leon and your .04%

transience posted...

oh good, I thought I'd be the low pick here by far

transience posted...

damn you leon and your .04%

The crew in two posts.

Previous Results: Skyrim, Pokemon, and Nier all won, but looked un-impressive in their victories. Mario Kart looked solid though!

Crew Predictions: 90/96

Next Round Thoughts: Mario Kart doesn't have a chance against Skyrim, but also could make it look bad in its match. Neither Pokemon nor Nier look like a clear favorite going into their match.

Crew Prediction Challenge:

Kleenex: 89
Moltar: 89
transience: 85
Leonhart: 85
Guest: 76

Crew Accuracy Challenge: transience gets the point for Skyrim and Nier, Moltar gets the point for MK, and Kleenex gets the point for Pokemon.

Moltar: 28
transience: 20
Kleenex: 17
Leonhart: 14
Guest: 13 (spooky96, Hbthebattle (3), Black Turtle, ctes (2), MetalmindStats (2), MechanicalWall, Kotetsu, pjbasis, Nintendogs)

aw yeah DQXI

looks like dq11 is worth like 60% indirectly on bravely default. not awful, but pretty middling.

if FFXV = BD then BOTW gets 75% on DQXI next round

if botw can't keep this above 80% I'm considering it flop of the contest

I’d certainly take 15 over BD but no idea on the percentages. it might be real close to dq11?

LeonhartFour posted...

if FFXV = BD then BOTW gets 75% on DQXI next round

That sounds about right. I just got the same numbers using a different set of assumptions.

If we assume Hollow Knight = Shovel Knight and Bravely Default = Octopath Travelers, then DQXI is worth 60% on FFXV and BotW gets 75% on DQXI.

EDIT Oh actually it's probably the same assumptions lol.

Round 3 – Mass Effect 2 vs. Horizon Zero Dawn

Moltar’s Analysis

Mass Effect 2
Round 1 – 62.94% vs. Resident Evil 7: biohazard
Round 2 – 66.88% vs. Fallout 4

Horizon Zero Dawn
Round 1 – 80.93% vs. Fortnite
Round 2 – 55.08% vs. Borderlands 2

From rags to riches. ME2 went from “oh wow it might not even make it through round 2 or 3” to “oh nvm everything’s fine”. A doubling on Fallout 4 is a good enough showing to at least remain a contender to win the division. There isn’t any Nintendo here to be afraid of.

Horizon looks alright. It didn’t blow away Borderlands 2, so I can’t give it much of a chance here, but it should do decently. ME2 does have a chance at going big here, as it has all the same advantages against Horizon that it did against Fallout 4. The only difference is that Horizon is far more liked by the gaming audience than FO4, so it should hold up far better.

Moltar’s Bracket: Mass Effect 2

Moltar’s Prediction: Mass Effect 2 – 60%

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transience’s Analysis

Mass Effect 2 blew Fallout 4 up last round but I'm still a little sketchy about it. It's hard to get a read on Mass Effect because its two legit matches, 2 vs. Fallout 4 and 3 vs. Witcher 3, had some pretty big WRPG overlap. The only result I can put any real stock in is the RE7 match and who knows what to think there. Still, ME2 is one of our great games this decade and it's hard to dispute that.

Fortunately, its opponent here is another game I don't have a lot of respect for in Horizon: Zero Dawn. It's one of the weakest games left in this top 32, and certainly the least well known franchise of them all. This seems like the perfect match for Mass Effect 2 and should give people a lot of confidence going into the division finals.

transience's prediction: Mass Effect 2 with 65.67%

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Leonhart’s Analysis

This one feels pretty straightforward. There were some question marks about Mass Effect 2 entering the last round, but it largely answered them with its impressive win over Fallout 4. There will be some doubt about its ability to win the division next round, but I don’t see much reason to believe it’ll drop this one. Horizon Zero Dawn has had two pretty good wins, so I expect it to hold up just fine. I’d take it over either of ME2’s previous opponents, so I think it can get around 40% or so, but I’d be surprised if Horizon actually challenged for the victory.

Leonhart’s Vote: Mass Effect 2

Leonhart’s Prediction: Mass Effect 2 with 58.75%
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Kleenex’s Analysis

Mass Effect 2 went out and proved me wrong last round. Fallout got killed and ME2 is not looking like it got the 1 seed it deserves. I still don’t trust Horizon at all, and I think there’s reason to be skeptical given Borderlands is probably not all that great in the long run. Mass Effect should be able to put together a nice tidy win en route to a tough division finals next round against…????

Kleenex’s Prediction: Mass Effect 2 with 57.75%

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Guest’s Analysis – MechanicalWall

Horizon is an excellent game and I'm glad it had the chance to have a nice little contest romp. It got to quadruple the biggest game in the world and arguably the one that actually deserves the 'GotD' title for sheer cultural impact, saving us from a potential rally beast. It then got to comfortably beat a GotY winner (yes I know 2012 sucked shut up)

But this is... probably the end of the line? 55 percent on Borderlands is aight but that doesn't really put it at big upset status (unless you thought beating Borderlands was already an upset, but I didn't) 2015 x-stats say Mass Effect 2 would have won with 58%, so there actually is room for doubt here if you think the series has fallen.

I focus on Horizon's match for assessing this Round 3 because I don't personally make much of ME2's throttling of Fallout 4. That didn't surprise me at all and I called it as soon as I saw that match pre-contest. ME2 is gonna win respect points and is higher on the WRPG pecking order than FO4, the game that triggered Bethesda's fall from grace. Immediately post-launch there was a lotta praise for that game, but once the hype settled people realized hey, this is actually kinda bad. If you want a big reason why Witcher 3 has risen so much and why Skyrim seems to have stumbled a bit, you can credit FO4 for taking away Bethesda's de facto 'best open world RPG devs' license and CDPR inheriting it as more people picked Witcher up. Yes, all before even getting into Fallout 76!

Rambling aside, I don't think wrecking FO4 makes ME2 an overwhelming favorite here. A consistent Borderlands would actually make this match pretty damn close, and with the billion re-releases and Borderlands 3 maintaining the series' brand I don't see a reason for it to have slipped much. This match has some potential to put the fear of God in ME2 and really make people who took it to win the Division worry, but ultimately I think the 'GotD' respect points ME2 generates will help keep this from getting TOO close.

But one last thing. The adjacent match is RE2 vs Bloodborne, and we've seen BB rally against a game it was already comfortably winning against. Horizon seemed to get quite a bit of the spillover, which makes sense as it's a PS4 exclusive stablemate and people take that seriously (lol). IF that happens again and Horizon is even just a slight favorite for the spillover, that might make things a little tense. Still, I can't base my predictions too much on if rallies do or don't happen, especially when they aren't specifically for the match I'm writing about. Just something to consider!

MechanicalWall prediction: Mass Effect 2 - 54%
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Crew Consensus: Zero chance for Zero Dawn

Wow y'all are bullish on ME2

If ME3 was one of Witcher's best possible opponents than FO4 was definitely one of the best opponents any WRPG could have been served

I think only I am? it's more that I don't believe in Horizon or Borderlands though.

MechanicalWall posted...

Wow y'all are bullish on ME2

If ME3 was one of Witcher's best possible opponents than FO4 was definitely one of the best opponents any WRPG could have been served

Nah, I think FO4 is just garbage. Seeing Sonic Mania destroy Super Meat Boy basically confirmed that because I think it's on around the same level as VVVVVV and FO4 didn't beat it by that much more.

I think I respect Horizon here more than most though.

Wait... I didn't know multiple users could cover one match!

Can I cover Xenoblade/Fire Emblem?

I still can't believe that RE7>F4.

Advokaiser posted...

Wait... I didn't know multiple users could cover one match!

Can I cover Xenoblade/Fire Emblem?

I mean, you're welcome to post writeups for any match you want! Only the assigned guest gets points for it though.

I know Lopen and Ngamer have posted writeups in here even when they haven't been part of the Crew.

Don't forget Horizon is a 2017 game!

Round 3 – Resident Evil 2 vs. Bloodborne

Moltar’s Analysis

Resident Evil 2
Round 1 – 83.13% vs. Danganronpa 2: Goodbye Despair
Round 2 – 57.57% vs. DOOM

Bloodborne
Round 1 – 80.53% vs. Call of Duty: Black Ops
Round 2 – 57.90% vs. Fire Emblem: Awakening

Uh...hmmm

This is close on paper. DOOM vs FE:A? Earlier I would’ve said FE, but after everything FE disappointed and DOOM overperformed, that would probably be close too.

In situations like these, I like to fall back to the old question, “Which is the more GameFAQs game?” That would be Resident Evil. These two action/survivial-horror games aren’t all that different from each other, and I can see these two games having a similar audience. What helps RE2 here is that our site loves us some RE. Even RE7 ended up doing pretty well!

Bloodborne is definitely a threat though. We saw last round that it was one of the few games to get a successful rally, and it didn’t even need it to beat Awakening! If this is really close, a Bloodborne rally could give it the edge. I think this ends up more like Fallout/DS3 where RE2 stays just out of reach.

Moltar’s Bracket: Resident Evil 2

Moltar’s Prediction: Resident Evil 2 – 53%

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transience’s Analysis

Gahhhhh. This one is tough. On the one hand, it feels like RE2 should be much more of our kind of game: it's a great remake of a classic game that fits more into our kind of thing. It's the only true 90s game in this bracket, and that helps! But it's also a full remake as opposed to a mere port, and it won GOTY.

That said -- I haven't been super impressed with Sekiro or Three Houses so far, which was RE2's main competition in a really soft year for games. The remake factor could still hurt it, especially since Bloodborne is well-known as one of the decade's very best. And its result vs. Doom, while not bad, didn't exactly inspire me.

This matchup extrapolated is basically Doom vs. FE Awakening, and pre-contest I (and almost everyone else) would have taken FE over Doom. You can come up with reasons to doubt Awakening after the fact, like how Three Houses kind of stole Awakening's lunch as the best game in the series upon release, but it feels a little dishonest. From that perspective, Bloodborne should be the favourite.

The other thing to consider is that Bloodborne got a little bit of a boost due to a minor offsite rally. Sure, maybe that's true, but why wouldn't that happen again? This match will likely be closer than the last one. I make it a point not to bet on rallies, but Bloodborne likely wins that match 56-44 without a rally, which is still enough to give it favourite status.

This match is ultimately about reputation vs. results, with RE2 winning the former and Bloodborne the latter. The remake factor plays a role here too. I think that pushes me over the edge, actually - if RE2 were at full strength I'd pick it, but without that, I think people can back a well-known and super respected game like Bloodborne.

transience's prediction: Bloodborne with 51.11%

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Leonhart’s Analysis

This match feels pretty tricky. Both games put up dominant performances in round 1 against fodder and then convincing wins against midcard competition in round 2. It’s hard to say definitively which game has looked better so far. The wild card here is the Bloodborne rally. It got a decent one last round that enabled it to put up a bigger number on Awakening, but that was against a game it was already stronger than before the rally. They’ve already declared that they plan to rally again for this match. Would the same type of rally be enough to help it defeat Resident Evil 2?

I have no idea, but I’m going to stick with Resident Evil 2. There’s no denying that Bloodborne has grown in strength over the last five years. It’s been free on PS+ recently, which probably helped, but the RE3 Remake just dropped, which might help boost RE2 a little bit as well. The Resident Evil brand seems to be going strong this year based on RE7’s surprisingly good performance in round 1 as well. All things being equal, I think I lean RE2.

Leonhart’s Vote: Resident Evil 2

Leonhart’s Prediction: Resident Evil 2 with 52.22%
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Kleenex’s Analysis

I really thought this match was a foregone conclusion, but now I have no idea. They both got almost identical results on their round 2 opponents...so who wins between Fire Emblem and DOOM? My gut reaction is Fire Emblem, but truthfully, I’ve always found Awakening’s results pretty underwhelming. So maybe it’s not as strong as it gets credit for. And then there’s the possibility of a Bloodborne rally. It happened last round, and while it wasn’t a contest-ending disaster, it certainly is enough to flip a close match. The soulsborne fanbase is exactly the kind of group to rally, too, and I’m fairly convinced it’ll get at least some kind of outside help. I think that’s enough factors to tip the scales in favor of Bloodborne for me, even though I’m rooting pretty hard for it to lose.

Kleenex’s Prediction: Bloodborne with 50.75%

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Guest’s Analysis – FFDragon

Yeah, so you all know what I'm picking. I've been waiting forever to see RE2 make a real run of things, and I think the GameFAQs 2019 Game of the Year has at least this round left in the tank.

First let's rev up the ol' lol x-stats:
Resident Evil 2 (2015g) VS Bloodborne (2015g)
--Resident Evil 2 has a strength of 23.93.
--Bloodborne has a strength of 21.24.
Resident Evil 2 wins with 55.62% of the vote!

That seems about right all things considered, factoring in Bloodborne actually getting time to grow a fanbase and RE2Make coming out. But things are never that fair. I think there is definitely going to be some sort of rally, but I don't think it will be enough to push Bloodborne over the hump. It will put the scare into RE2 for a while, but that's about it. The Souls/esque games haven't really impressed me so far and I'm banking on that trend continuing.

RE3Make has been, we'll say, warmly received so far and will be the x-factor in holding off the outside factors surrounding the match. I still think it's entirely possible that RE2 gets overwhelmed, but Resident Evil 2 is both naturally stronger (as a game and in brand name) and has enough peripheral strength floating around it to pull it out. Going to be a great match, but sorry Bloodborne -- DOOR'S LOCKED.

FFDragon's Prediction: Resident Evil 2 with 51.66%

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Crew Consensus: We got a split! RE2 is the slight favorite in this match.

Whew, I was afraid we were going to sweep.

I thought I’d be going it alone here.

I really do think RE2 is naturally a good 5 points stronger, it all comes down to how you value the rally potential.

I doubt there is any reason for the rally to increase. Quite the opposite, since SFF seems to weaken rallies (it causes some of the fans to vote for the other game). But this is without taking into consideration the possibility of a bandwagon.

I have no idea who's going to win. I'm thinking Bloodborne will have the edge in not being a dumb remake of a 90s game, but I have RE in my bracket

that's dumb game of the year 2019 of a 90s game to you, sir

I wonder if Allen forgot to change it so that the 7 day break didn't start today like it was supposed to before the last delay.

my theory was that scoring 2 matches instead of 4 was the issue. either way, I can wait!

How long before the matches get punted to tomorrow? 2 hours tops, right?

oh I see Ults is trying to rally BB

maybe this delay helps get rid of that

Ulti has tried to rally almost every day

oh. the things I miss by not reading the stats topic!

transcience posted...

oh. the things I miss by not reading the stats topic!

it's his neverending quest to prove rallies are good for the contest

but yeah I feel like if this goes on for more than an hour we should just postpone until tomorrow

Bloodborne with 50.05%

RE2 because Nintendo fanbase can't play Bloodborne whereas they can play RE2 on PC or original on GC

Not sure I like this

assuming no rally, it seems like RE2 would benefit the most from a shortened voting period since it's the heavy board favourite.

yeah re2 is toast