Game of the Decade: 2010-2019 Contest Analysis Crew - Part 4
GameFAQs Contests
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MechanicalWall posted... Stardew Valley is also not this site's kinda game, but a high profile and clear identity seems to help these games a lot. RPGs are definitely this site's kinda game. All the stars in the sky are waiting for you. |
Mac Arrowny posted... RPGs are definitely this site's kinda game.It's a farming sim If
you're only on this board to whine about "SJWs", please redirect
whatever you type on to the nearest trash can. And hop in after it. |
Leonhart4 posted... I was wondering if anyone would flip to FFXIV. believe me, I really really wanted to |
Round 2 – Pokemon HeartGold / SoulSilver Version vs. Rayman Legends Moltar’s Analysis Pokemon HeartGold / SoulSilver Version Round 1 – 81.96% vs. Night in the Woods Rayman Legends Round 1 – 50.45% vs. Celeste If people want to ‘punish’ HGSS for not technically being from this decade, this ain’t the match where it’s going to happen. Being equal to Celeste still means you’re fodder. It should be slightly stronger than Night in the Woods, but not by much. Moltar’s Bracket: Pokemon HeartGold / SoulSilver Version Moltar’s Prediction: Pokemon HeartGold / SoulSilver Version – 78% ____________________________________________________________________________ transience’s Analysis I'd love to get a sense of how much people respect Pokemon here. I'm starting to get really scared of it beasting the bottom half of the bracket given how RE2 and P4 are doing. I can't decide if HG/SS feels more like Gold/Silver or like one of the newer games that don't do as well. I think I lean more towards the latter, but even a game on FFXV's level could surprise Nier and maybe even scare Skyrim. People dump on Celeste for dropping the Rayman match and I pushed back pretty hard on that - I think Rayman is pretty okay when compared to the overall competition here. But then the Super Meat Boy result happened and now I just have no respect for our voters. Pokemon wins going away, and probably reasserts favourite status over Nier since it has a softer opponent. transience's prediction: Pokemon HG/SS with 74.58% ____________________________________________________________________________ Leonhart’s Analysis Pokemon got an easy win over Night in the Woods in round 1, and it should get another easy win here, although the margin shouldn’t be quite as large. Rayman Legends scored a fun comeback upset over Celeste, but it’s out of its league here. I don’t know what Pokemon even needs to shoot for in order to look good going into next round, but I figure as long as it doesn’t dip below the mid-60s or something, it should be fine. Leonhart’s Vote: Rayman Legends Leonhart’s Prediction: Pokemon HeartGold/Soul Silver with 65.85% ____________________________________________________________________________ Kleenex’s Analysis Now that we’re all super wary of indie games, it’s much more likely that Rayman is exactly as bad as we all though, and Celeste was just worse. This temper’s Pokemon round 1 result slightly as well, but there’s no comparison here - Pokemon is going to smash Rayman. It’s a matter of figuring out if it’s going to be strong enough to beat NieR next round or not. We’ll see how it does today. Kleenex’s Prediction: Pokemon HeartGold / SoulSilver Version with 70.50% ____________________________________________________________________________ Guest’s Analysis – Hbthebattle HGSS is obviously going to teat through Rayman like tissue paper, though maybe not as massively as it did to NitW, since Rayman has a genre that is stronger here. Ultimately, though, these fodder beatdowns still don't tell us much about the upcoming HGSS match. HGSS- 79% ____________________________________________________________________________ Crew Consensus: Pokemon takes the gold and Rayman gets silver. Moltar Status: hype Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
So who puts these tidbits at the end of every analysis? They are always so punny! So why we exist? What happens when we stop existing? |
That's the Moltar touch |
Night
in the Woods has to be some of the biggest turbofodder in the contest
tbh. Like I'd rank in the Edith Finch or Obra Dinn category. I really
don't think Pokemon precisely impressed there, and I very much doubt
Celeste would struggle against NitW. Pokemon is winning, but I'd expect a
sub-75% performance at best. But who knows! Surskit Hi! I like shorts! They're comfy and easy to wear! |
I have no doubt the weakest game that won is Journey. But Rayman Legends might be second. It vs. Rocket League seems debateable. Born to lose, live to win! |
I'm
pretty sure I'd take Rayman over Meat Boy after its round 2
performance. There's also Divinity, the game I keep forgetting is still
in the contest! (edited 4/18/2020 4:49:48 PM) |
Man this division is so weak. |
Leonhart4 posted... I'm pretty sure I'd take Rayman over Meat Boy after its round 2 performance. There's also Divinity, the game I keep forgetting is still in the contest!Actually same I think I'd take Meat Boy, Rayman and Rocket League all over Divinity for sure Born to lose, live to win! |
Round 2 – Divinity: Original Sin II vs. NieR: Automata Moltar’s Analysis Divinity: Original Sin II Round 1 – 69.22% vs. Hearthstone: Heroes of Warcraft NieR: Automata Round 1 – 68.41% vs. Bayonetta 2 And Round 2 ends with a whimper. The floor for this match is 69% (nice) for Nier, since Bayonetta 2 is going to be stronger than Divinity. I believe Bayonetta 2 would easily beat Divinity too, so Nier should be looking pretty good in this match. Plus Hearthstone has to make another run for weakest game in the bracket! Moltar’s Bracket: NieR: Automata Moltar’s Prediction: NieR: Automata – 77% ____________________________________________________________________________ transience’s Analysis Divinity didn't kill Hearthstone like it maybe should have. I'm scarred from the Super Meat Boy match and fully accept that I'm overreacting, but that 69% result makes me think about the Slay the Spire match. Is Divinity actually any good? It's better than Super Meat Boy - it has to be - but it's not exactly a killer. Nier is good - and Bayo2 is almost certainly better than Divinity. If any kind of RPG overlap happens here, this could get pretty ugly. I doubt it does because they're such different kinds of games, but you never know! transience's prediction: Nier: Automata with 72.45% ____________________________________________________________________________ Leonhart’s Analysis NieR: Automata got 68% on Bayonetta 2, and Divinity: Original Sin II got 69% on Hearthstone. I feel like you could end the writeup right there! Not much else needs to be said to understand that this is going to be ugly. Automata should be one of the few games to go higher in round 2 than it did in round 1. I’d like to see it go really high to make me feel better about its chances against Pokemon next round! Leonhart’s Vote: NieR: Automata Leonhart’s Prediction: NieR: Automata with 75.09% ____________________________________________________________________________ Kleenex’s Analysis Divinity was one of the weakest games to win a match last round, for sure. I personally wanted to see NieR do a little bit better against Bayonetta 2 last round, but nearly 70% is fine, I suppose. Anyway, Divinity is junk, and NieR should absolutely outdo its round 1 score here. By a good amount. If it doesn’t for some strange reason, I’m going to be really worried going into the match against Pokemon next round. Kleenex’s Prediction: NieR Automana 74.50% ____________________________________________________________________________ Guest’s Analysis – ctes Divinity is a good contender for weakest game in round 2, although Journey is that too. I think NieR's gonna look really good today compared to Skyrim though, simply because I think there's a limit of how low Journey can go even if it wouldn't beat many games, while there's a potential NieR could work some SFF here. I think NieR could shoot for 80% here, Divinity has got to be really weak. Nothing would be settled, but NieR should hope to outdo HGSS by a bit today if it wants to be the favorite in round 3. Divinity: Original Sin II - 19.84% NieR: Automata – 80.16% ____________________________________________________________________________ Crew Consensus: Nier hacks its way into Round 3. Moltar Status: hype Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
yikes. I wish FF14 had a decent opponent in round 1. add the c and back away iphonesience |
Wow Automata looked like a Pokemon slayer at 5 minutes Not so sure at 10 minutes |
I feel like Rayman Legends is definitely stronger than Divinity 2, though I guess that could be wrong. All the stars in the sky are waiting for you. |
Rayman
is likely stronger than Divinity 2, although that's not set in stone.
Divinity 2's round 1 performance put it on the level of around Journey
or so, and I'm not convinced Celeste/Rayman are guaranteed to be
stronger than Journey. It's Reyn Time. (edited 4/18/2020 7:20:14 PM) |
this Ff14 result is killing me inside |
The Mana Sword posted... this Ff14 result is killing me inside Sir Chris Doom The Kanto Saga - Animated Series - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6hH4wNFCrLM |
I'm gonna rank the r3 matches! this is by my interest level, not some objective closeness measure
xyzzy |
transience posted... I'm gonna rank the r3 matches! this is by my interest level, not some objective closeness measure This could be the match of the contest. This is Persona's finest hour SuperNiceChao about to win the Oracle 2020! TsunamiXXVIII and me will destroy all you noobs |
Last of Us v Batman is a lot more interesting than it once was If
you're only on this board to whine about "SJWs", please redirect
whatever you type on to the nearest trash can. And hop in after it. |
Looks like I will not be playing FFXIV anytime soon. Papaopamus? |
yeah,
maybe it should be a couple spots higher. I'm struggling to care about
division 7 because it seems like every game is underwhelming. xyzzy |
I feel like Dark Souls vs MGSV should actually get points for being a rematch. I like little control points like this. |
yeah but there's literally zero reason for it to be any closer this time around and you can't really gauge how much of it is Dark Souls being better and how much of it is MGSV being worse |
skyrim/mario kart is going to have a hilarious swing next round xyzzy |
Previous Results: Nothing unexpected. Crew Predictions: 86/92 Next Round Thoughts: Dark Souls/MGSV rematch is looking more and more likely that it's going to be much worse for MGSV this time around. Batman/TLOU...might be interesting? TLOU ain't looking all that great. Crew Prediction Challenge: Kleenex: 85 Moltar: 85 transience: 81 Leonhart: 81 Guest: 72 Crew Accuracy Challenge: Leon gets the point for Dark Souls, transience gets the point for MGS, Moltar gets the point for Batman, and Kleenex gets the point for TLOU. Moltar: 27 transience: 18 Kleenex: 16 Leonhart: 14 Guest: 13 (spooky96, Hbthebattle (3), Black Turtle, ctes (2), MetalmindStats (2), MechanicalWall, Kotetsu, pjbasis, Nintendogs) Moltar Status: hype Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
Round 3 – The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild vs. Final Fantasy XV Moltar’s Analysis The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild Round 1 – 85.02% vs. The Outer Worlds Round 2 – 84.86% vs. Halo: Reach Final Fantasy XV Round 1 – 74.65% vs. What Remains of Edith Finch Round 2 – 50.42% vs. Hollow Knight Gotta start out the round with some more Zelda domination. FF15 should be a couple steps above Outer Worlds and Halo Reach, so I don’t expect another ~85% blowout here. Still, it probably comes close. Why? Struggling with Hollow Knight means it’s still going to get wrecked here. As we’ve been seeing, even the stronger indie games are getting 60%+ put up on them when facing real competition. And Breath of the Wild is the realest competition there is. Moltar’s Bracket: The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild Moltar’s Prediction: The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild – 78% ____________________________________________________________________________ transience’s Analysis Our first round 3 match is, as expected, a real dud. It's kind of interesting though to see where FFXV lines up, if only to give us a sense of where Hollow Knight is. Hollow Knight is one of maybe 2 indies that ended up impressing. My personal opinion? I'd rather doubt Hollow Knight as a legit game and, in turn, Tales of Berseria and FFXV, two games with every reason to disappoint. Breath of the Wild is FFXV's worst opponent. I mean, it's everything's worst opponent, but especially this one because the only franchise that has more shine than Final Fantasy is Zelda. It neuters XV's best quality. FFXV certainly can't rely on franchise votes to carry it over the consensus GOTD, not just here but everywhere. How bad is FFXV? It's better than Outer Worlds and Halo Reach, but probably not a whole lot more than that? transience's prediction: Zelda: Breath of the Wild with 76.64% ____________________________________________________________________________ Leonhart’s Analysis We had to get our customary Zelda/Final Fantasy matchup! We literally haven’t gone a single contest without one so far, and this will probably be the most lopsided one yet! If I’m not mistaken, I think the current record is Majora’s Mask getting over 68% on Final Fantasy XII in 2015. This one should blow past that one with room to spare. Breath of the Wild is probably on par with Majora’s Mask, but even with as middling as FFXII is, it would probably still beat FFXV fairly easily. The real question here is: Who do I vote for? If you paid attention to my games list that I did a couple months ago, I actually ranked Breath of the Wild much higher than Final Fantasy XV. But in all these years, I’ve always supported Final Fantasy against Zelda. Dare I betray that loyalty now? I don’t think I can. Thankfully, this match will be so lopsided that there’s no harm in throwing FFXV a pity vote! Leonhart’s Vote: Final Fantasy XV Leonhart’s Prediction: Breath of the Wild with 76.15% ____________________________________________________________________________ Kleenex’s Analysis Ah, the classic Final Fantasy vs. Zelda match! This’ll be one for the ages, I’m sure. As in one of the worst beatdowns Zelda has given Final Fantasy ever. FFXV looks like trash and got super lucky to skate by Hollow Knight last round. Zelda is going to brutalize it. Kleenex’s Prediction: The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild with 77.25% ____________________________________________________________________________ Guest’s Analysis – SuperNiceDog Ok so obviously The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild has not only this match wrapped up, but probably the contest based on last rounds' results, in what I think is one of the greatest 2nd round performances in contest history, 84.8% on Halo: Reach(!!). Maybe one of the strongest results in contest history period, to murder Halo like that. It would I think at least be in the top 10 for greatest Round 2 performances in Contest History. That aside... ok so how much will it score on FF15? Last round, FF15 managed to barely squeak by Hollow Knight, with 50.4%. It is in for a rude awakening against the juggernaut of all juggernauts. The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild wins with 80.4% of the vote. ____________________________________________________________________________ Crew Consensus: FFXV drives off into the sunset. Moltar Status: hype Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
I needed SND to explain to me how FFXV was actually omega legit and gonna topple Zelda Day ruined If
you're only on this board to whine about "SJWs", please redirect
whatever you type on to the nearest trash can. And hop in after it. |
MechanicalWall posted... I needed SND to explain to me how FFXV was actually omega legit and gonna topple Zelda Noctis voice actor rally? I can look him up SuperNiceChao about to win the Oracle 2020! TsunamiXXVIII and me will destroy all you noobs |
posting this here so it doesn't get lost -- I got tired of people screaming rally every single match so I grabbed some data. https://i.imgur.com/JaxaMyl.png I grabbed one match per day because they're essentially the same. I tried to pick the most interesting match of the day, but if none were available I just went with the most popular game. xyzzy (edited 4/19/2020 3:58:47 PM) |
Noctis
voice actor might actually work weirdly enough. i looked him up and he
tweets about random stuff all the time and his pinned tweet is him
wearing a Noctis cardboard mask ..it'd obviously never matter enough to change the results, but it could make Zelda look bad in the stats, which would be funny i guess. |
Round 3 – Monster Hunter: World vs. Dragon Quest XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age Moltar’s Analysis Monster Hunter: World vs. Sekiro: Shadows Die Twice Round 1 – 57.95% vs. Bravely Default: Flying Fairy Round 2 – 55.80% vs. Sekiro: Shadows Die Twice Dragon Quest XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age Round 1 – 80.67% vs. The Legend of Heroes: Trails in the Sky SC Round 2 – 71.91% vs. Bastion MonHun looked solid in Round 2, and this should be Dragon Quest’s first actual challenge. 72% on Bastion is fine, but not great. DQ doesn’t look to be a top game in this bracket, and a number of the other two seeds would probably give it work if it faced them. It doesn’t need to be a world-beater though to win this match. This should be a comfortable win for it, as I’d expect these games to share a similar audience. Between the two games, DQXI seems like the preference for those that have played both, but it’s not overwhelming. Moltar’s Bracket: Dragon Quest XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age Moltar’s Prediction: Dragon Quest XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age – 57% ____________________________________________________________________________ transience’s Analysis Okay, I've mentioned this in various crew topics, and I really adore the game I'm about to slander. But can we please stop giving DQ11 so much credit for beating up on a Trails game and a mediocre indie game? Bastion is assuredly weaker than Super Meat Boy, like no question about it, and Sonic Mania just dropped 60+ on it. (Sorry to keep bringing this up.) It's surely weaker than Celeste and Celeste lost to Rayman. DQ11 has a shine to it that has people elevating it way above FFXV but I'm not feeling it. I'd love to feel it as DQ11 is one of the very best games in this bracket, but it's not like DQ has ever been more than a middling franchise here. MH World had no problem putting down Sekiro, and did beat a somewhat legit RPG in Bravely Default. I don't think Bravely Default is close to DQ11's level, but DQ11 would lose to the Fallout games in this bracket. It's not a killer. It's not like I believe in Monster Hunter so I don't think it wins here, but I think this is maybe a lot closer than other results would have you believe. I spent a long time pre-contest debating MH/Sekiro/DQ11, and I think I made the right choice, but I'm not convinced yet. You need to do better than simply beat up on a middling indie like Bastion for me to be all in.. transience's prediction: Dragon Quest XI with 54.67% ____________________________________________________________________________ Leonhart’s Analysis This is Dragon Quest XI’s first real test. It put up good numbers on two bad games, which is what you want to see from it, but we don’t know how it’ll do against a game with real popularity. Monster Hunter: World has proven it has that. I wasn’t too impressed with its win over Bravely Default, but it put up a good showing against Sekiro last round. Dragon Quest and Monster Hunter are both brand names that have sold really well worldwide but have rarely gained traction here, but these two games appear to be the exception to the rule. I’ve got Dragon Quest XI in my bracket, and I haven’t seen anything conclusive to convince me otherwise as of yet. The definitive edition came out on Switch last year to overwhelmingly positive reception, and I think that might be enough to put it over the top here. Leonhart’s Vote: Dragon Quest XI Leonhart’s Prediction: Dragon Quest XI with 54.63% ____________________________________________________________________________ Kleenex’s Analysis You know, Monster Hunter actually ended up looking pretty good last round, I thought. I had it winning, but it won by a more significant margin that I would have expected. I’m still slightly skeptical of DQ11 being a powerhouse, I do think it has gotten some fairly favorable matches through the first two rounds, but it’ll still win here without too much issue. I do think MonHun will come out of this looking decent though, I don’t expect a huge blowout or anything. Kleenex’s Prediction: Dragon Quest XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age with 56.25% ____________________________________________________________________________ Guest’s Analysis –MetalmindStats The last time we saw our protagonists in action, Monster Hunter: World hunted up 55.80% on Sekiro, whereas Dragon Quest XI quested to 71.96% on Bastion. Neither those results nor the previous round provide an easy frame of comparison here, so the next best option is to turn to 2015. Most directly, the newest Monster Hunter game at the time scored 43.06% on Suikoden II, another beloved standout installment of a JRPG series with middling strength. World has since established its franchise firmly in the mainstream, but how much does that matter on GameFAQs? Conversely, Dragon Quest is a bigger name than Suikoden, yet Suikoden is from a time when most voters simply cared more about video games. Another angle to consider here is extrapolation against The Walking Dead, the one game in this eightpack that returned from 2015. Through Bastion, Dragon Quest would reach about 73.2% on The Walking Dead, compared to the 71.75% the adjusted x-stats suggest for Suikoden II. It’s hard to gauge what exactly that means, as on the one hand, The Walking Dead has a few very good reasons to decline from 2015. On the other hand, matches such as ME2/FO4, Witcher 3/ME3, and arguably even Nier/Bayo 2 and P5/ACIV retrospectively enhance the possibility of unaccounted-for SFF from Uncharted 2 muddying up The Walking Dead’s x-stat value. That all is on top of the general uncertainty concerning anything stuck behind Undertale in 2015. Pre-contest, we mostly agreed that Dragon Quest had a clear but not substantial edge over Monster Hunter’s fourpack. Both Dragon Quest and Monster Hunter have since looked a little better than most expected, yet B8 expectations have shifted to further favor Dragon Quest - seemingly because it scored two blowouts, two more than Monster Hunter. Personally, I see no compelling reason for such a shift. Returning to the aforementioned Suikoden/MH comparison, XI is a fundamentally iterative experience, which results so far imply is less impactful than series evolutions like World. Likewise, XI has made its somewhat niche series many new fans, but it hasn’t quite matched World’s breakout for its own somewhat niche series. As for The Walking Dead, the trends we’ve seen to date suggest it has notably declined from even its artificially low 2015 value, another bad sign for Dragon Quest in comparison to Monster Hunter. None of that is to say that Dragon Quest is likely in danger of dropping this match, just that anything much over 60% is improbable. As much as I love XI, I have a hard time seeing it avoid looking like the one clearly out of place division finalist based on its result here. Prediction: Dragon Quest XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age wins with 55.11% ____________________________________________________________________________ Crew Consensus: Dragon Quest levels up to Round 4. Moltar Status: hype Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ (edited 4/19/2020 4:38:35 PM) |
Huh, transience and I are close on both of our predictions today! |
This is the "Battle of JRPGs that are absolutely huge in Japan but only okay in the West". MH is like a top 3 biggest selling series in Japan, and DQ is not much far from that. |
oh good, I thought I'd be the low pick here by far xyzzy |
ZeldaTPLink posted... This is the "Battle of JRPGs that are absolutely huge in Japan but only okay in the West".Monster Hunter World sold incredibly well overseas. Way more than it did in Japan (where it still sold very well). There's a reason World knocked off Bravely Default and Sekiro while 4 Ultimate lost to Suikoden 2. It's Reyn Time. (edited 4/19/2020 5:26:30 PM) |
Monster Hunter World has sold 14 million copies lmao That thing is a juggernaut If
you're only on this board to whine about "SJWs", please redirect
whatever you type on to the nearest trash can. And hop in after it. |
KamikazePotato posted... Monster Hunter World sold incredibly well overseas. Way more than it did in Japan (where it still sold very well). There's a reason World knocked off Bravely Default and Sekiro while 4 Ultimate lost to Suikoden 2. I suppose I have outdated info, then. It used to be that MH and DW were both series that were just niche here. Make it the "Battle of the JRPGs who only broke out in the West recently". (edited 4/19/2020 5:53:39 PM) |
Turns out all they had to do to make Monster Hunter popular overseas was to not make it a handheld game with PS2 graphics. (Disclaimer: I loved 4 Ultimate) It's Reyn Time. (edited 4/19/2020 5:54:19 PM) |
I know it’s only a minute in but watching ff15 get annihilated like this is hilarious |
just stay above 20% I'll consider that a victory |
Zelda gonna 80% every game it faces until the finals |
someone list the games in this bracket that can get 40% on breath of the wild I think the answer is maybe 1 add the c and back away iphonesience |
transcience posted... someone list the games in this bracket that can get 40% on breath of the wild I like skyrim and Witcher both can tbh Sir Chris Doom The Kanto Saga - Animated Series - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6hH4wNFCrLM |
I
think it’s time to start considering how strong BotW would actually be
in a real contest, because it’s got no competition in this one. |
transcience posted... someone list the games in this bracket that can get 40% on breath of the wild Witcher Skyrim Dark Souls, maybe? The final Undisputed Champion in UCA history. |
transcience posted... someone list the games in this bracket that can get 40% on breath of the wildand that 1 is Breath of the Wild "Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything." |
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