Game of the Decade: 2010-2019 Contest Analysis Crew - Part 4

ZeldaTPLink posted...

I've met a lot of Danganronpa fans in this site and others, and I'm confident that this take is as true as saying FF7 is generally seen as worse than FF9.

People love DS2 way more than DS1.

Okay you know what, I'm probably wrong on that one then. I'll admit I don't hang out in Danganronpa boards, largely because I thought the series went downhill in the second (and especially 3rd) game, and I think I subconsciously assumed other people felt the same way.

FFDragon posted...

RE2 would beat ME imo tbqh

Whoops I meant ME2. And we'll see which one is stronger if they meet up this year, although 2015 ME2 is probably stronger than current ME2.

Based on 2015 stats, around 67% is the benchmark Last of Us needs to prove it hasn't dropped.

I know the perfect match for a guest write-up! Though I'll have to wait for Round 3 for that.

Heropon_Riki posted...

Okay you know what, I'm probably wrong on that one then. I'll admit I don't hang out in Danganronpa boards, largely because I thought the series went downhill in the second (and especially 3rd) game, and I think I subconsciously assumed other people felt the same way.

I could say this is true to some extent, largely because the series keeps trying to outdo itself in terms of plot every game. DR1's plot is crazy, DR2's is crazier and DRV3's is outright lunatic. Personally DR1 was the only game whose ending satisfied me. In terms of fandom, I know V3's ending is considered very divisive, but I don't see many people bashing DR2.

But... the series keeps improving in other ways. DR1 has easily the weakest cast, and a lot of cases are average at best. While DR2 has what is probably the best case in the series, protagonized by a character who is probably the most popular in the series (Nagito). DRV3 is pretty solid in terms of both cases and cast too.

ZeldaTPLink posted...

I could say this is true to some extent, largely because the series keeps trying to outdo itself in terms of plot every game. DR1's plot is crazy, DR2's is crazier and DRV3's is outright lunatic. Personally DR1 was the only game whose ending satisfied me.

Pretty much how I see it. Danganronpa's decline kind of reminds me of the TV show Community in that it started out with a very enjoyable level of zaniness but was grounded enough to keep you interested, but then slowly became more and more unhinged until it just became too ridiculous to care about. Although perhaps the fact that the fanbase latched onto Nagito (the most ridiculous, unhinged character in the series) is a good indicator that they actually prefer the series that way. So I guess it's just not for me.

DR2 is the best game in the series largely in spite of Nagito

DR2 is the worst game in the series and Nagito is the saving grace

Nagito sucks

well, xenoblade wins div 4

what the heck MGSV

how badly is Dark Souls going to crush it next round

The Witness redeemed?? Probably not, but I'd like to think so!

it’s not exactly surprising that the board vote crushes it. it’ll still get north of 60, looks like

wow did not expect over 60% for batman. the last of us is in trouble

KamikazePotato posted...

Based on 2015 stats, around 67% is the benchmark Last of Us needs to prove it hasn't dropped.

Ruh roh

I’m watching Last of Us more than the rest. I’m not sure if I’d pick Infinite or Diablo 3.

Yeah, wow XC2 got screwed by bracket.

I'd have taken Infinite pretty easily bruh

So much for Last of Us beating Dark souls, it might not even get there

I'm not sure if this is a great showing for Dark Souls either.

But who even knows.

yeah it’s not. maybe bloodborne is the strongest from game

well Dark Souls just gained 2.25% in one update and it's suddenly looking better

I told y’all tlou was a fraud

this really is the last of my bracket

yeesh, mgs5 is bad

I kinda don’t like anyone in this division, except maybe Dark Souls which seems like an easy winner. worst division in the bracket.

Yeah, I feel like Dark Souls has it on lockdown by default because everyone else kinda sucks.

Yeah, TLoU's a narrative driven Western shooter, which is not a genre this site cares about. There's a clear ceiling for Western games that aren't RPGs.

okay yeah Dark Souls has turned this from a mediocre performance into a really good one

KamikazePotato posted...

DR2 is the worst game in the series and Nagito is the saving grace

I just liked the ninja with hamsters and the punk rock girl. Am I out of touch...?

No... it's the fans who are wrong.

Danganronpa 2 is easily the most popular game in the series. I am not a proper litmus test.

more guest signups

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/78596579

Heropon_Riki posted...

I think VLR is at the very least, stronger than Danganronpa 2 by a good margin. For starters, VLR is almost unanimously considered the best in the franchise while Danganronpa 2 is generally seen as worse than the original.

I also generally hold the opinion that later games in the franchise being worse only strengthens earlier games in the franchise. Super Paper Mario for example has gained a much more favorable reputation after Sticker Star's release. So I don't think Zero Time Dilemma hurts it much.

Don't get me wrong, VLR was never going to be a heavy hitter in this competition, I'm just saying the 30% votes it did get are probably mostly the VLR fanbase and not like, anti-votes against Diablo 3 or anything.

It's like a mini-Xenoblade honestly. Small fanbase, but the people who have played it really, really like it. The main difference being that Xenoblade got a massive visibility boost in recent years thanks to Smash and Definitive Edition while VLR just kinda... is.

Really? Those are some strange opinions as far as I knew. I always thought that 999 was considered the best in the franchise, and...I'm honestly not that keyed into the DR fandom. I guess it does make sense for the first game to be better received there, too. I wouldn't pick it there, though.

Edit: Ah, seeing the responses, seems I was right.

Heropon_Riki posted...

I just liked the ninja with hamsters and the punk rock girl. Am I out of touch...?

No... it's the fans who are wrong.

Oh, no, those are definitely some of the best characters in the game. Also the gamer chick and the comic relief mechanic.

Master Moltar posted...

God of War shouldn't have a problem with New Vegas.

Yo I think it still has a shot.

God of War being super popular is a little SUS to me. New Vegas probably gets around the same on Dishonored as GoW did on Nioh.

I'd like to say thanks for running this project @Master_Moltar , even though the contest is not over. It's been a lot of fun to be a part of this as a guest

pjbasis posted...

Yo I think it still has a shot.

God of War being super popular is a little SUS to me. New Vegas probably gets around the same on Dishonored as GoW did on Nioh.

a few percent less but I'd take Nioh over Dishonored

Dishonored's one of those games that's largely been forgotten and Nioh did at least have a sequel released recently

Previous Results: Persona does well, Sonic surprised and did better on Super Meat Boy than Ys. I guess Ys VIII is somewhat legit after all! Portal 2 had no trouble in its match, and RDR2 fended off Animal Crossing, which had good reason to overperform here.

Crew Predictions: 82/88

Next Round Thoughts: Sonic's fourpack seems pretty weak so Persona should have an easy time next round. Portal 2 has also done well enough against decent opponents to maintain favorite status against RDR2.

Crew Prediction Challenge:

Kleenex: 81
Moltar: 81
transience: 77
Leonhart: 77
Guest: 68

Crew Accuracy Challenge: transience gets the point for Persona, Leon gets the point for Sonic, pjbasis gets the point for Portal, and Nintendogs gets the point for RDR2.

Moltar: 26
transience: 17
Kleenex: 15
Leonhart: 13
Guest: 13 (spooky96, Hbthebattle (3), Black Turtle, ctes (2), MetalmindStats (2), MechanicalWall, Kotetsu, pjbasis, Nintendogs)

wtf guest

I bet guests would do a lot better if they were randomly assigned to a match.

scaryice posted...

I bet guests would do a lot better if they were randomly assigned to a match.

Probably get more half-assed writeups in that case, though.

Round 2 – The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim vs. Journey

Moltar’s Analysis

The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim
Round 1 – 84.00% vs. Subnautica

Journey
Round 1 – 66.20% vs. Fate / Grand Order

This

This is a round 1 match that somehow found its way into Round 2.

Journey is more known and respected than Subnautica, but the fact that it could only double a mobile game means it’s very, very weak. Skyrim needs to flex here because some of its later competition has been stepping it up.

Moltar’s Bracket: The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim

Moltar’s Prediction: The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim – 80%

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transience’s Analysis

Hey, I think it's the last day of four matches! I can feel a weight leaving me. Hopefully that means we all put twice as much effort into the upcoming matches.

This match is just a barometer for Skyrim to measure up against Witcher 3. Journey probably loses to ME3, though Witcher has had a fortunate draw in both matches and I don't know that I 100% trust its results. I'll need to see its match with Mario before truly drinking the koolaid.

Journey didn't exactly impress facing a mobile gacha game which is the antithesis of things we appreciate on this here website. I'm not expecting a lot. Skyrim obviously goes big here, but an 80% type of result would be really helpful is asserting favourite status. Honestly, even if it gets 80, it still might be the underdog. That ME3 result was good enough to be considered the #2 game of the decade right now.

transience's prediction: Skyrim with 76.51%

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Leonhart’s Analysis

Oh hey, it’s one of the rare matches so far where we actually have contest data on both entrants! The X-Stats project a quadrupling and that sounds about right, but I feel like everyone’s going to view it as a bit of a disappointment. Most of it is what we’ve seen Witcher 3 do in both of its matches so far, but part of it is that our expectations for Skyrim might be a bit too high. It got 84% on Subnautica last round and people were thinking that wasn’t good enough! We’re all just playing one big guessing game here, reacting to who got the higher percentages, and it doesn’t always work out (look at Sonic Mania/Super Meat Boy!). I think we’ll really start getting good ideas about these top tier games starting next round once we’ve mostly gotten rid of all the chaff.

Leonhart’s Vote: The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim

Leonhart’s Prediction: The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim with 79.66%
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Kleenex’s Analysis

From the worst division in the bracket to the best. A bumpy start for Skyrim, but once the dust settled last round it ended up looking just fine. We already know Journey is weak, so Skyrim should be able to put up another nice performance today (though I expect another slow start to the poll and people calling for it’s head). FFVII got 84% on Journey in 2015. Skyrim is obviously noticeably weaker than FFVII, but somewhere low-70s sounds about right to me.

Kleenex’s Prediction: The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim with 73.25%

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Guest’s Analysis – TsunamiXXVIII

Journey was very weak in 2015, but was easily able to win in Round 1 due to getting a mobile game, which is generally guaranteed to be fodder--and even then, it failed to get the doubling. Skyrim was also facing fodder in Round 1, but it managed to get 84%, so yeah, it's still strong. Skyrim was considered one of the "early favorites" for GotD2, by which I mean that we recognize how older tends to be better in contests so when we got our first GotD we figured that a top game from early in the decade would probably be a safe bet. Once Breath of the Wild came around, we quickly realized that a game from the second half of the decade would win after all, but Skyrim probably is the strongest game from the first half of the decade, maybe second to Mass Effect 2 but I'd probably take Skyrim. I think we're going to see another huge blowout here, enough to put FGO into contention for the weakest game in the bracket.

Skyrim with 80.64%
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Crew Consensus: The journey ends here for Journey.

What would Skyrim have to get for FGO = Subnautica?

Mac Arrowny posted...

What would Skyrim have to get for FGO = Subnautica?

76.33%

Round 2 – Final Fantasy XIV Online: A Realm Reborn vs. Mario Kart 8

Moltar’s Analysis

Final Fantasy XIV Online: A Realm Reborn
Round 1 – 71.53% vs. Crypt of the NecroDancer

Mario Kart 8
Round 1 – 58.85% vs. Uncharted 4: A Thief’s End

So FFXV barely beat an indie game and now you want me to think an MMO FF can beat freakin’ MARIO (kart)?

Nah, heck that number against Uncharted 4 is really good! Much better only than 71% on fodder when we saw a lot of games breaking 75%+. This is another match where I wouldn’t be surprised if the round 2 opponent fails to outdo the round 1 opponent.

Moltar’s Bracket: Mario Kart 8

Moltar’s Prediction: Mario Kart 8 – 60%

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transience’s Analysis

This feels like a dream matchup for MK8. Mario Kart is best against opponents that we don't care about and an FF MMO feels perfect for it to exploit its strengths while not taking advantage of its weaknesses (nobody actually cares that much about multiplayer games, and therefore about Mario Kart).

FF14 could surprise here - we franchise vote for FF with the best of them, and that game is pretty good. I don't think I trust it against a game of note though since half the site will never smell an MMO while MK8 has been played by a trillion people. We could be in for a surprise in the other direction if people apathy vote for FF over Mario Kart, but I'd bet on Nintendo here.

transience's prediction: Mario Kart 8 with 58.53%

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Leonhart’s Analysis

Pre-contest, I basically assumed that whoever won Uncharted 4/Mario Kart 8 had a free pass into round three. Now I’m not so sure. Mario Kart 8 won, but it didn’t look particularly convincing, while Final Fantasy XIV put up a big number. However, there’s always this unknown question of, “How weak is the game that it beat?” We’ve been struggling to figure it out for all of round 2, and Crypt of the NecroDancer is no exception. My first guess is that it’s lower tier fodder, and in that case, I’d favor Mario Kart 8.

And that’s what I’m going to stick with here. Could Final Fantasy XIV beat Uncharted? I think it can, so at the very least, I can’t totally rule it out. However, even if it is Final Fantasy, we’ve seen that the name alone is good enough to squeak past Hollow Knight, but what about another big name franchise in Mario Kart? I’m still skeptical of how strong any MK game outside of the first two can be, but I think I’d take it over an MMO, even with the FF name attached.

Leonhart’s Vote: Final Fantasy XIV

Leonhart’s Prediction: Mario Kart 8 with 56.15%
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Kleenex’s Analysis

Seeing last round’s results give me a bit of pause in regards to what happens in this one. I thought FF14 did really well. And while I know that performing well on prospective fodder has proven to not be worth much in the way of statistical analysis, I’m also horrendously biased. Mario Kart did kinda kill Uncharted in a match I think most people thought would be much closer. I’m not actually convinced that FF14 would be able to do what Mario Kart did to uncharted last round, so I’m going to side with the Nintendo game here. I’ve never rooted harder to lose a crew point, though.

Kleenex’s Prediction: Mario Kart 8 with 54%

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Guest’s Analysis – Sniperdog117

Round 2 ends with yet another debated division 8 match. I was kinda surprised that Mario Kart 8 won AND was the bracket favorite over Uncharted 4, especially given the seeding difference. I guess bracket makers are pretty smart at this.

Mario Kart 8 was held under 60 by UC4, which is ok? I don’t really expect much from either game, but considering how weak TLOU is looking right now, perhaps cinematic shooters have dropped on GameFAQs? I don’t think MK8 is most of Nintendo's fans’ favorite game, but I feel like this one is the most respected in years so maybe they’ll just go with it?

It is facing another multiplayer focused game (been told FFXIV can be treated as a single player game by some, but that doesn’t matter for this contest) that holds this site’s uh… second favorite brand name? I can’t imagine anything upending it from its number 2 spot. I want to live in the world with Necrodancer is more legit than your average indie fodder, so I am going to go with 71% vs it as a good look.

I feel like this is a battle of two games that are associated with things GameFAQs likes, but multiplayer games only go far if they are not named Smash. That is what is cool about this match to me, no matter what, a multiplayer game is going to round 3 to be eaten by Skyrim, but it is still going to round 3.

My bracket has MK8 in this round, and when typing this, I wanted to go with FFXIV. But I was thinking that I cannot imagine FFXIV getting more than 59% on UC4 for some odd reason.

To make things fun, if FFXIV wins this, I’m finally going to get around to playing it after all these years

Mario Kart 8- 52%

Final Fantasy XIV-48%
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Crew Consensus: Mario Kart speeds past its competition.

I was wondering if anyone would flip to FFXIV.

I feel thanks to Cadence of Hyrule, Necrodancer probably clocks in decently high on the indieometer. It's not hanging with the Knights or Cuphead but I can see it being in the high midtier.

Makes me wonder what CoH would have done if it made the bracket. It would have been a nice test to see if the Zelda name could boost everything it touches

Now I want FF 14 to win in order to see if Sniper Dog keeps his promise.

Crew curse, I like it.

I totally think FF14 could beat Uncharted. Then again I never would've imagined Uncharted vs. Necrodancer being close, but with that egg Last of Us is laying right now it's not crazy.

Necrodancer's another roguelike. Not so sure it'd be any better than Isaac or FTL or Slay the Spire.

Necrodancer is a rhythm game and a roguelike. I don't know if that's better than a ship simulator or a top down shooter or a card game meets a roguelike. Which is bad because as we've seen that all those things are junk!

I think CoH is just its own (stronger) thing. I don't think Necrodancer gets boosted by it, or at least by much.

Stardew Valley is also not this site's kinda game, but a high profile and clear identity seems to help these games a lot.