Game of the Decade: 2010-2019 Contest Analysis Crew - Part 3

pjbasis posted...

I can see Smash falling off due to an older crowd falling out of multiplayer or something. The campaigns are known to be worse since Brawl.

Brawl's campaign definitely split the waters the most. It was loved and hated all the same. People loved the cutscenes, but it was heavily criticized beyond that.

if the playstation community decides to rally for god of war then it's over for the witcher

but is it

ZeldaTPLink posted...

So I'm looking at the rally thread in the DS3 subreddit and half the posts in there are supporting New Vegas.

This is interesting, and very different from what we saw in the Bloodborne match.

Could be a fanbase thing. I'd wager those people have less reason to care about a nintendo weeb JRPG than for another Western AAA game like New Vegas.

Wonder if BB struggles more against RE2 because of that.

That's what makes rallying so difficult. While you may bring in a net positive for your game there are going to be set backs in terms of troll voting and people liking the opponent more.

I think DS3 is the worse of the DS games?

I think 3 is generally more highly-regarded than 2 because series creator Hidetaka Miyazaki was not involved in it (busy with Bloodborne?), but some prefer 2 because they felt 3 was too derivative of Dark Souls 1 and Bloodborne.

Wow, Galaxy 2 tanked more percentage than even I expected!

dark souls 2 is generally seen as the worst. hat's why it didnt even get in the bracket

I think Galaxy 2 is losing so much ground as collateral damage of the FO:NV rally?

edit. Also, my understanding is DS2 is the controversial one while DS3 is more generally agreeable to the usual fans.

Round 2 – Persona 5 vs. Assassin's Creed IV: Black Flag

Moltar’s Analysis

Persona 5
Round 1 – 78.29% vs. Heavy Rain

Assassin's Creed IV: Black Flag
Round 1 – 56.44% vs. Sid Meier’s Civilization V

Easy win for Persona 5 here. Black Flag looks to be several steps up from AC: Odyssey, so don’t be surprised if P5 doesn’t outperform The Witcher’s numbers here.

Moltar’s Bracket: Persona 5

Moltar’s Prediction: Persona 5 – 70%

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transience’s Analysis

In past years, Persona would be the lower seed, but here it is, one of the eight 1 seeds in the contest. As I write this, Persona 4 Golden, an enhanced port, is looking like it will hold off Red Dead Redemption, one of the biggest games of the decade by just about any metric, by not giving an inch during the day vote. Persona's really come a long way.

Black Flag did okay holding off Civ 5. I don't know how much credit to give it. Is it tangibly better than AC Odyssey, or did it just have a better matchup? We'll be able to compare Witcher 3's dominating performance to Persona 5's here. I don't think Persona can get numbers that big because I don't think its playrate is that big, but this should still be a pretty easy W for Persona.

transience's prediction: Persona 5 with 70.04%

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Leonhart’s Analysis

Persona 5 wins, we know that much, but how big can it go here? I don’t think it’s realistic to expect it to do what Witcher 3 did to the other Assassin’s Creed game. Persona 5 isn’t as strong as Witcher 3, in all likelihood, but Black Flag is probably a good deal stronger than Odyssey. ACIV is often considered the last great game in the series, so even though Origins and Odyssey were well received, a lot of us had bailed on the series by that point. Plus, I kinda doubt Black Flag would lose to Heavy Rain, so there’s only so high I can see Persona 5 going here. I feel like as long as it’s in the 70s, that should be good enough.

(although I kinda feel like Persona 4 Golden beating Red Dead Redemption almost makes the rest of this division a formality unless Portal 2 beats RDR2 by a noticeable margin!)

Leonhart’s Vote: Persona 5

Leonhart’s Prediction: Persona 5 with 73.55%
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Kleenex’s Analysis

I don’t think there’s all that much to say about this one. Black Flag managed to get through a match against a weak opponent, and Persona 5 managed to almost quadruple a weak opponent. After seeing how some things have shaken out so far in round 2, I think I would have liked to see Persona squeeze a few more points out of its win against Heavy Rain, but it’s not like it’s in any danger today. This *should* be a blowout, but given I’m watching P4 barely cling on to a lead against RDR right now, I’m not totally convinced, even though conventional wisdom would probably put P5 > P4.

Kleenex’s Prediction: Persona 5 with 68.50%

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Guest’s Analysis – Sniperdog117

Persona 5 looked about as strong as I expected it to be last round. Pretty sure Heavy Rain is fodder but its at least mainstream fodder, unlike a few of the other blowouts we saw in round 1. That said, P5 is probably around Mass Effect 2 and GTA5 as the weaker one seeds in this bracket.

But none of that really matters this round because Assassin’s Creed sucks around here. GameFAQs cares very little for Civ 5 or most PC games, so going 55-45 with it makes Black Flag low fodder, probably. It is going to be interesting to see how P5 does relative to TW3’s AC beat-down, but then again there could be SFF there…? Also, is Black Flag more popular than Odyssey? I’ve never played these games so I dunno AC’s games’ strength.

Anyway, I don’t see GameFAQs liking something as sequel heavy and mainstream as AC, especially with Royal coming out recently, so I expect something like a tripling.

Persona 5- 75%

Assassin Creed IV: Black Flag- 25%

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Crew Consensus: Persona steals the Black Flag

Surskit posted...

I think Galaxy 2 is losing so much ground as collateral damage of the FO:NV rally?

edit. Also, my understanding is DS2 is the controversial one while DS3 is more generally agreeable to the usual fans.

I dunno if you can blame all this loss on just the rally. We'll have to see what the registered/anonymous splits are.

It's a combination of rally, Stardew Valley being legit and Galaxy 2 not being as strong as people think. This is the game that lost to ME1, so there's a limit to how much stronger it can be than FE3H and GTAV, both of which struggled with their own indie darlings.

ZeldaTPLink posted...

So I'm looking at the rally thread in the DS3 subreddit and half the posts in there are supporting New Vegas.

This is interesting, and very different from what we saw in the Bloodborne match.

New Vegas is a BIG Reddit circlejerk game. Like a big one. I think it and Witcher 3 would be very hard games to rally against on Reddit because of how much love they get sitewide.

Round 2 – Sonic Mania vs. Super Meat Boy

Moltar’s Analysis

Sonic Mania
Round 1 – 62.74% vs. Ys VIII: Lacrimosa of DANA

Super Meat Boy
Round 1 – 68.96% vs. Slay the Spire

Hmmm…

After seeing a lot of the indie games get shut down this round when facing games with names, I really don’t like Super Meat Boy’s chances here, especially when it couldn’t even break 70% on what should be a very weak game.

Still, Sonic Mania looked SO BAD in Round 1 I mean damn. Ys has never looked good here so I can’t suddenly buy it being decent. It’s really hard to spin that Sonic performance into anything but an underperformance. Maybe Ys just has a really dedicated fanbase?

I think apathy is going to be high in this match, and the GameFAQs voters feel more familiar with Sonic. This round has consistently shown that name brands vs indie games goes in favor of the name brand. Super Meat Boy did not do well enough in R1 to make me give it a chance even against the disappointing Sonic Mania.

Moltar’s Bracket: Sonic Mania

Moltar’s Prediction: Sonic Mania – 51%

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transience’s Analysis

I felt pretty damn confident pre-contest that Super Meat Boy is more popular than Sonic Mania. I never even blinked when picking Super Meat Boy. I put Sonic Mania in the KH3 class of 'who cares?'. People who played Sonic Mania liked it but I think the ship had largely sailed there. It didn't bring people back to Sonic games in a major way.

However, Super Meat Boy couldn't even hit 70% on a much weaker indie game. Slay the Spire is more popular than the Obra Dinns and Insides of the world but it isn't close to the level of a Bastion or even a VVVVVV. This feels like a matchup of two games that just aren't that good. Super Meat Boy is indie royalty and Sonic Mania is the grand return of Sonic goodness but neither one seems to resonate.

Sonic Mania's result -- 63% on Ys -- is even worse than that. Maybe I'm not giving credit where credit is due, but I've never seen a Ys game be worth much and the Sonic name couldn't even double it. Does Ys beat Slay the Spire? These are dark times when we debate these two, but I'm not 100% convinced that Ys wins there. Maybe I should be. I have no idea.

The thing that worries me here are any apathetic voters that may see the Sonic name and vote for that. I think Super Meat Boy is a pretty well known game though. It's not a game that only indie kids have heard of. That game garners a mainstream nod that some of these other indies just don't. I'd pick it over Ori, and I think it can beat Sonic Mania.

transience's prediction: Super Meat Boy with 53.44%

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Leonhart’s Analysis

I felt awfully good about Sonic Mania for about the first ten minutes of the match last round, but by the end, I was getting a little concerned! I didn’t expect Sonic Mania to be that strong, but only 62% on Ys VIII was yikes! I guess it’s possible I underestimated Ys somewhat, but the ceiling is definitely low. Even so, it’s not like Super Meat Boy was all that impressive either. I think I’d still take Ys VIII pretty comfortably over Slay the Spire though. A roguelike card game feels like a recipe for one of the weakest games in the contest.

Either way you slice it, this is probably the weakest round 2 matchup out there. We know neither game is worth all that much, so you basically have to decide which one you think sucks less. I’m going to stick with Sonic Mania just out of fanboyism and for the sake of my bracket, but I don’t know how you can feel good picking either game here!

Leonhart’s Vote: Sonic Mania

Leonhart’s Prediction: Sonic Mania with 52.72%

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Kleenex’s Analysis

Sonic Mania kinda stunk last round, but Meat Boy also didn’t perform as well as I’d have expected when taking its opponent into account. Which makes picking a winner here a little tough. Would Ys beat Slay the Spire? Probably, but I have no idea by how much. I think the indiefear has cooled off quite a bit and round 2 has shown that a lot of them just kinda got favorable matchups in the first round. I’m going to pick Sonic here, even if I think it stinks.

Kleenex’s Prediction: Sonic Mania with 51.50%

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Guest’s Analysis – paulg

Honestly, I think Sonic Mania looked like crap last round compared to Super Meat Boy. SMB looked better against Slay the Spire than Mania did against a jRPG title whose series I would have never have even heard of had it not been for this board. I have at least seen Slay the Spire mentioned/played elsewhere on the web.

Sonic Mania is not going to have an easy time against Super Meat Boy and I suspect the latter will end up winning. Wouldn't surprise me if Sonic Mania doesn't even manage 46%.

Prediction: Super Meat Boy - 52.39%

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Crew Consensus: It’s a split! Sonic Mania is the slight favorite.

Saw transience and guest picking Meat Boy from a mile away!

this match to me is a matter of picking the one that sucked less round 1. I think both games put up fairly underwhelming performances but Sonic Mania's was a lot more so.

@pjbasis @Nintendogs

I haven't received your Guest write-ups for today's matches yet.

The thing about Sonic is that I'm scared his underperformance is due to antivoting, since his reputation these days is trash.

Does more than 20% of voters even know what Ys is? Sonic should have cruised to an easy victory based on name recognition alone.

Whoops comin

Leonhart4 posted...

Saw transience and guest picking Meat Boy from a mile away!

and you with sonic mania! (I don’t like super meat boy all that much but boy do I not believe in sonic mania)

Master Moltar posted...

@pjbasis @Nintendogs

I haven't received your Guest write-ups for today's matches yet.

Gimme a bit of time for that, sorry.

Sonic gonna 60-40 SMB and legitimize Ys 8

squexa posted...

The thing about Sonic is that I'm scared his underperformance is due to antivoting, since his reputation these days is trash.

Does more than 20% of voters even know what Ys is? Sonic should have cruised to an easy victory based on name recognition alone.

But that Sonic movie boost!

transcience posted...

and you with sonic mania! (I don’t like super meat boy all that much but boy do I not believe in sonic mania)

Honestly if I didn't have it in my bracket on the verge of making the leaderboard, I'd have been tempted to flip! I can see Meat Boy running away with this more easily than I can see Sonic doing it.

Honestly Slay the Spire has every reason to be omega trash. On the indieometer it might not quite be at INSIDE or Obra Dinn level, but it's chilling in that basement

But STS has amazing critical reception.

Safer_777 posted...

But STS has amazing critical reception.

So do a lot of weak games!

Yeah seems strange but that is the truth.

Slay the Spire is weird. it does seem like it should be inside tier but it found a weird home with rpg geeks, which we are.

Safer_777 posted...

But STS has amazing critical reception.

Every indie game in the bracket has amazing critical reception.

I picked up Slay the Spire just because it showed up in the contest and found that I completely adore it.

Of course, I adore Super Meat Boy, too, so my vote wouldn't have changed, but still!

I'm sorry, but any game that has mustered seven sequels can't be as trash as some of you are making it here. Especially on an rpg loving site like this. Sonic rolls easy here.

ALAKA posted...

I'm sorry, but any game that has mustered seven sequels can't be as trash as some of you are making it here. Especially on an rpg loving site like this. Sonic rolls easy here.

Rolling around at the speed of sound!

Hope you're right, but Trails has mustered about as many games as Ys!

Round 2 – Portal 2 vs. Kingdom Hearts III

Moltar’s Analysis

Portal 2
Round 1 – 65.29% vs. Tomb Raider

Kingdom Hearts III
Round 1 – 68.06% vs. Disco Elysium

If you’ve traversed the Internet, you would have seen KH3 get a lot of blowback since release. Even GameFAQs wasn’t feeling KH3, and it showed in its soft Round 1 performance. While other big name franchises were putting up 70%+ and 80%+, a Kingdom Hearts game only got 68% against an indie. That bad.

Meanwhile, Portal 2 held up really well against Tomb Raider. Like Mass Effect 2, Portal 2 has stuck around in our minds despite being released early in the decade.

A debatable match pre-contest that became obvious after the first round.

Moltar’s Bracket: Portal 2

Moltar’s Prediction: Portal 2 – 60%

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transience’s Analysis

KH3 should be one of the stars of this bracket, and in a world where Kingdom Hearts didn't become an absolute joke, it's probably the 1 seed instead of Persona 5. Instead, it's barely worth mentioning. KH3 didn't even make it into a GOTY poll and underwhelmed its round 1 match vs. DIsco Elysium, one of the newer and weaker games in the bracket.

The only way it gives Portal 2 a run is if Portal 2 flops. That seems unlikely. Portal 2 was in a recent 'favorite 2' poll where it did pretty OK, better than Red Dead 2, better than Half-Life 2 and not too far off from MGS2. Portal 2 had a pretty good round 1 win vs. an underseeded Tomb Raider. I'm not entirely convinced that KH3 beats Tomb Raider. I don't think much of KH3, to say the least. Portal 2 should win this going away, and if KH3 is as weak as I think it is, this is probably the worst loss Kingdom Hearts has ever taken in a 1v1 match.

transience's prediction: Portal 2 with 61.15%

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Leonhart’s Analysis

I felt pretty confident in Portal 2 pre-contest, and round 1 only bolstered my faith in it winning here. Both games put up similar numbers in round 1, but Portal 2 did it against a Tomb Raider game that’s clearly boosted Lara Croft in recent Character Battles. Kingdom Hearts III did it against Disco Elysium, a game that’s probably decent for an indie, but isn’t going to be as strong as Tomb Raider.

I remember in the original Game of the Decade, I had Final Fantasy XII winning three matches, not because I had any faith in FFXII, but because I didn’t think two western games (Portal and Mass Effect) could beat a mainline Final Fantasy. Well, after round 1, when FFXII struggled against literally Crisis Core and Portal blew out Gears of War 2, I felt the beatdown coming and the impending dread as that match drew closer. It feels nice to be on the right side of it this time!

Leonhart’s Vote: Kingdom Hearts III

Leonhart’s Prediction: Portal 2 with 59.98%

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Kleenex’s Analysis

Tomb Raider would beat Disco Elysium fairly convincingly, right? There’s no way Kingdom Hearts can win this match after that round 1 showing...right? I’m highly skeptical of how strong Portal 2 actually is, but after their respective round 1 matches, I have a hard time finding reasons to side with KH3. It’s not the kind of result I’d be bowled over by, but I’d be pretty surprised at this point. Maybe Disco Elysium is way stronger than I’m giving it credit for...we’ll see.

Kleenex’s Prediction: Portal 2 with 56.25%

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Guest’s Analysis – pjbasis

This one has been cut and dry since the bracket came out. Portal 2 is a strong sequel to a popular game, KH3 is a mixed bag sequel to a declining series.

Still I dont see Portal 2 more than doubling KH3. Tomb Raider is probably pretty dang weak, and the KH crazies still love their shit so it should hold up a fair bit better.

Portal 2 – 61.23%

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Crew Consensus: Portal warps to Round 3.

Nice got the high pick

Ys doesn't have the weird name brand recognition for its series like Trails does. Trails is more like the Drakengard / Nier issue as its mixed in with Dragon Slayer / Xanadu. That hurts it as a legacy title unlike with Ys.

Portal 2 vs KHIII was the match I was hoping to write about when I missed the sign up, but I'll stick to my bold prediction:

Portal 2 beats KHIII as hard or harder than it beat Tomb Raider

Leonhart4 posted...

Hope you're right, but Trails has mustered about as many games as Ys!

I actually read this first as "Tales", but then I realized it still works!

if the strongest Ys game is as strong as the strongest Tales game Sonic Mania's gonna beat Persona 5!

Crew writeups read as people not wanting to give up on their Sonic bracket picks even though the writing is on the wall

KamikazePotato posted...

Crew writeups read as people not wanting to give up on their Sonic bracket picks even though the writing is on the wall

It's more like sticking with my bracket because it's not like Super Meat Boy gave me a clear reason to believe in it! I don't mind picking against my bracket if I believe in the other side!

So what you're all saying is the crew curse is going to lead KH straight to victory.

davidponte posted...

So what you're all saying is the crew curse is going to lead KH straight to victory.

Hey, I'd love for KH3 to pull this out!

davidponte posted...

So what you're all saying is the crew curse is going to lead KH straight to victory.

I think the Sonic match is the one you might want to be looking at.

KH is a fraud.

ZeldaTPLink posted...

I think the Sonic match is the one you might want to be looking at.

KH is a fraud.

Sonic match can't be a Crew curse. It isn't unanimous.

Leonhart4 posted...

It's more like sticking with my bracket because it's not like Super Meat Boy gave me a clear reason to believe in it! I don't mind picking against my bracket if I believe in the other side!

Oh Sonic Mania can still win (I wish Meat Boy had did a bit better against Slay the Spire) but the writeups for it exude a lack of confidence. I've seen the "well Entrant A did way worse than I expected it to, but it totally still has the juice, it wins with 51%" song and dance many times before!

I would've exuded the exact same lack of confidence if I had picked Meat Boy!

Round 2 – Animal Crossing: New Leaf vs. Red Dead Redemption 2

Moltar’s Analysis

Animal Crossing: New Leaf
Round 1 – 66.51% vs. Street Fighter V

Red Dead Redemption 2
Round 1 – 81.40% vs. Dying Light

Animal Crossing fever might be high right now, but just because you doubled a fighting game doesn’t mean you can start challenging the big boys. RDR was capable of going even with Persona 4, and the sequel looks to be around the same strength. Even if it’s a little weaker, New Leaf is still far behind those three games.

Still, I expect it to hold up and not get crushed with New Horizons being fresh in people’s minds.

Moltar’s Bracket: Red Dead Redemption 2

Moltar’s Prediction: Red Dead Redemption 2 – 60%

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transience’s Analysis

I'm nervous. I don't know if I should be or not. I have absolutely no idea of what to expect here. Fighting games suck and Street Fighter has a history of underwhelming, but still, Animal Crossing still put on a doubling against a real game. Compare it to Red Dead 2 had a nice 80% win but I'm still nervous.

If this match were two weeks ago, I might flip on Red Dead. Red Dead 1 went 50/50 with Persona 4 which *should* be better than Animal Crossing. Animal Crossing is still popular, but I feel like the zeitgeist is starting to die down a little as other games like FF7 Remake start to suck up all the air in the room. That said -- in a world where Final Fantasy 7 Remake exists, the new Animal Crossing is still the #1 game on the site. New Leaf is somehow #3. Think about that for a second. It came out in 2012. Five Animal Crossing games are on the top 100 right now, including the Wii one which is the only Wii game in the top 100. Animal Crossing is hot as hell right now.

You know what this match reminds me of? Only our oldest members will remember this, but the FF7/Animal Crossing board contest vote, back when we took board contests even more serious than we take this contest now. Animal Crossing beat out FF7 and the board lost its mind over it. That's how I feel like this could go: fans of Red Dead 2, the greatest narrative game ever made, losing to KK Slider. I'm not picking Animal Crossing but the beginning of this match could be UGLY, to say nothing of the Animal Crossing online community's rally potential. Or maybe Animal Crossing stays in its lane and Red Dead puts up a smooth 60%. Who knows?

transience's prediction: Red Dead Redemption 2 with 53.87%

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Leonhart’s Analysis

As I write this, Persona 4 Golden is putting the finishing touches on its victory over the original Red Dead Redemption. Can another handheld game that potentially acts as a proxy for something bigger do the same to the sequel? I kinda doubt it. Yes, New Leaf nearly doubled Street Fighter V, but I’d wager that SFV would be the weakest AAA title in the bracket if stuff like Destiny didn’t exist. Now if it had gone for 75% instead of 65% there, then yeah, I’d be worried that it’s acting as a proxy for New Horizons. As it is, with RDR2’s very high number that it posted in round 1, I think it’ll win this one without too much trouble.

Leonhart’s Vote: Animal Crossing: New Leaf

Leonhart’s Vote: Red Dead Redemption 2 with 63.36%
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Kleenex’s Analysis

Tom Nook about to bust some kneecaps.

Not really, though. As much as I would LOVE to take this hot upset and have it happen, it seems a little too far out of reach. New Horizons is not New Leaf, and the other Rockstar games have actually not been stinking up the joint thus far. RDR2 should be able to put down the animals without too much trouble. If Animal Crossing had gotten like 75% last round or something, I’d be jumping all over this, but given what little respect I have for Street Fighter it’s too unrealistic. Totally rooting for Animal Crossing here, though.

Kleenex’s Prediction: Red Dead Redemption 2 with 61.50%

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Guest’s Analysis – Nintendogs

Previous results:

Animal Crossing: New Leaf - 66.51% against Street Fighter V
Red Dead Redemption 2 - 81.40% against Dying Light

Animal Crossing is hotter than ever at this time, having its latest game released on Switch and selling bonkers all over the world. I and perhaps others suspect that New Horizons has boosted New Leaf significantly, enough to hand a doubling against the latest game in Capcom's flagship fighting game franchise, Street Fighter V. It's a massive turnaround from getting an 85-15 SFF hammer from Mario World (until Tumblr came and actually had AC <i>cut votes</i> into Mario World's lead).

The verdict is still out for Red Dead Redemption 2. The game managed to perform a good blowout against Dying Light, which led me to believe that it had a good shot to upset Persona 5. The situation here is this: can Animal Crossing embarrass it this round? The first RDR game losing to a Vita port of a game from the previous decade does not bode well at all for RDR2's chances against Persona 5. With AC being the trend right now, coupled with Stardew Valley (a similar game) holding on its own against Mario Galaxy 2, along with RDR1's loss to Persona 4 Golden, I think AC has what it takes to embarrass RDR2 and make it look vulnerable, but not enough to outright win.

Prediction: Red Dead Redemption II at 58.56%
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Crew Consensus: Red Dead redeems itself after yesterday.

I'll take the high prediction here

Play Mass Effect 3