Game of the Decade: 2010-2019 Contest Analysis Crew - Part 3

Rallies on reddit also have to just...get lucky.

I'll use a personal example. I wrote a little piece for one subreddit I go to that I thought was entertaining enough. Posted it, after half an hour it had 3 upvotes. I noticed that the first couple votes I got were negative. I also know how exponential growth works. I went 'fuck it', deleted the post, waited an hour and then posted it again.

50 upvotes in the same period of time. Made the front page and ended up with hundreds.. Reddit is a crapshoot.

Soulsborne community is also happy, enthusiastic and satisfied with the direction their franchise is going, which is kinda rare in gaming communities these days that have low morale.

I can see them rallying behind any of them other than DS2.

ZeldaTPLink posted...

In recent contests I've come to realize subreddit size isn't what really defines a rally's success. It's the level of engagement of the community.

The bloodborne and souls reddits aren't that big, they have 100-200 people online at a time each. But they put out a 2k vote rallly. Everyone who came in, voted. It had 800 upvotes.

I'm worried it might bandwagon, especially with 3 soulsborne games in the bracket. Heck, they could try to rally in both subs at once. Or a discord. Or get a dev twitter. Sky is the limit. Or maybe Link is.

the bloodborne reddit had around 1.5k people online througout that day mostly (even right now it's at 1.2k). youre probably confusing it with the octopath / shovel knight ones. those were more in the 100 ~200 range.

Dark Souls 3 subreddit is bigger than Bloodborne's also.

whoa I did a search on twitter to see about rallying and found this dude: https://twitter.com/SniperdogSR

I'm guessing he's one of us. this dude puts my dedication on blast.

Well, I'm guessing it's the sniperdog doing guest write-ups.

ctesjbuvf posted...

Well, I'm guessing it's the sniperdog doing guest write-ups.

Yeah I tweet about moist matches. Not sure why, but it is a habit at this point.

Sharinnegan posted...

the bloodborne reddit had around 1.5k people online througout that day mostly (even right now it's at 1.2k). youre probably confusing it with the octopath / shovel knight ones. those were more in the 100 ~200 range.

Dark Souls 3 subreddit is bigger than Bloodborne's also.

Yeah add one zero to that number I guess.

Sniperdog117 posted...

Yeah I tweet about moist matches. Not sure why, but it is a habit at this point.

What would you qualify as a moist match

DS reddit has 1200 people online and Bloodborne has 1400. It's possible Bloodborne might actually generate the stronger rallies.

davidponte posted...

What would you qualify as a moist match

Anything that I am awake for.

I doubt many people bother though. Some people vote when I stream though.

More guest signups open @MechanicalWall

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/78560237

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/78560237#37

@MechanicalWall

more signups

oh darn ninja'd by 2 seconds

Thanks for the heads up

Round 2 – Nioh vs. God of War

Moltar’s Analysis

Nioh
Round 1 – 56.53% vs. The Binding of Isaac: Rebirth

God of War
Round 1 – 84.92% vs. The Talos Principle

Nioh did well in round 1 to pull off the upset against an indie game.

It’s reward is to get slaughtered by the Dad of War. These two action games might share a similar PlayStation fanbase too, and one is way more popular and critically acclaimed than the other so...

bye nioh

Moltar’s Bracket: God of War

Moltar’s Prediction: God of War – 72%

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transience’s Analysis

The theme of today is bad matchups! Popularity wise, Nioh is like a baby's version of Ninja Gaiden, which is a weaker Devil May Cry, which would lose to God of War 2018. In fact, God of War doesn't have too many "good" matchups because we usually don't go for that kind of game -- I'm still skeptical of its strength -- but Nioh might be its single most fortuitous matchup in the whole bracket. I guess there's the possibility that the people who like Real-Ass Character Action Games show up and vote for Nioh over God of War, but ehhhh. Next round is good, but today's matchups are just clunkers.

transience's prediction: God of War with 78.67%

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Leonhart’s Analysis

I think this one has the potential to get ugly in the same way Witcher 3/Assassin’s Creed did. I think these two appeal to the same type of fanbase, and Nioh can’t hold a candle to God of War on this site. I think Nioh is already pretty weak as it is. A middling victory over Binding of Isaac doesn’t speak well for it. I need GoW to go high here to rejuvenate my confidence in it winning the division, and I think this is a good opponent for it to overperform against!

Leonhart’s Vote: God of War

Leonhart’s Prediction: God of War with 79.99%
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Kleenex’s Analysis

Nioh surprised me last round. I really didn’t expect it to actually pull off a win, especially by the margin it did. I suspect it’ll get killed today, though. God of War was another big winner from round 1, and Nioh seems like the kind of game that’ll just fold to it. It’s nice to have a fairly clean division after the past few days!

Kleenex’s Prediction: God of War with 70%
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Guest’s Analysis – TsunamiXXVIII

God of War was among the many games that scored a huge blowout in Round 1. Nioh…wasn’t. BoI: Rebirth is probably a fair bit stronger than The Talos Principle, but not by enough to justify this upset, especially with this being a same-genre match.

God of War with 71.2%
____________________________________________________________________________

Crew Consensus: Another godly beatdown from the God of War.

This'll be a good barometer to see if God of War can beat Witcher 3 (I really don't think it will)

Witcher tripled Binding of Isaac in 2015. God of War is gonna have to do that and then some, and considering potential SFF, well, it'd have to go really big here

see now I think people are going too low!

ZeldaTPLink posted...

In recent contests I've come to realize subreddit size isn't what really defines a rally's success. It's the level of engagement of the community.

it's probably the same few people voting and skewing the results. I knew as soon as I saw all those people posting about wanting shovel knight to win they'd find a way to get it done, even though clearly more legit votes were for octopath.

The idea of God of War potentially SFFing Nioh is kind of interesting. Has a western game ever SFFed a Japanese game? I've associated Gow and Nioh as two fairly different games so the thought's never crossed my mind until now.

i dont think there is SFF. this new god of war is far more story / exploration based than it is an action game.

Yeah that's my gut feeling as well. If GoW really goes to town and obliterates Nioh, I'd be worried for the Witcher.

Eh, I dunno. I just feel like Nioh inspires apathy and not much else, so GoW is a good opponent to obliterate it.

Witcher 3 good

GoW not so good

Galaxy 2 probably goes down from here

against an indie game? not likely

Leonhart4 posted...

Galaxy 2 probably goes down from here

Indies have strong board vote but die at night

I think there’s a legit case for Witcher 3 being the #2 game on the site

This is a strong showing for Witcher but I also think ME3 is trash

today makes me feel good about:

Witcher > God of War
Dark Souls > Last of Us
Bloodborne > division 2

Really looking forward to TW3 v SMG2 next round to see if TW3 can put up a godly performance against a lesser Big N title - would prove a lot more to me than murdering AC:O and ME3, which are basically the perfect opponents for it.

transcience posted...

today makes me feel good about:

Witcher > God of War
Dark Souls > Last of Us
Bloodborne > division 2

Actually took me a second to realize you meant Bloodborne winning division 2 and not Bloodborne being stronger than Tom Clancy's The Division 2.

transcience posted...

today makes me feel good about:

Witcher > God of War
Dark Souls > Last of Us
Bloodborne > division 2

That sounds like a list of things that kill my bracket.

Y'know, in the first 'draft' of my bracket, where I basically just pressed things that felt right, I did actually have Bloodborne winning its Division... until somehow in my final bracket I had it losing in friggin Round 2.

Witcher is sitting there making me wish I had pulled the trigger on the Skyrim upset. I guess Skyrim still has a chance to respond, and it might get the respect votes in that match, but if I could go back and change any pick, it would be to Witcher winning against Skyrim

I don't like New Vegas letting DS3 hang around.

I'm very interested to see how the crew treats the animal crossing match tomorrow

it's days like today where I wish we didn't segregate Smash and Mario off to their own bracket. Witcher 3 over Smash would have been some real hype today.

okay I think New Vegas is safe

LeonhartFour posted...

okay I think New Vegas is safe

Looks like it's gonna win the board vote, lose the power hour and win the match??

transience posted...

I'm very interested to see how the crew treats the animal crossing match tomorrow

it's days like today where I wish we didn't segregate Smash and Mario off to their own bracket. Witcher 3 over Smash would have been some real hype today.

Hmmm, nahhhh. SSBU would get at least 55% on the Witcher's ceiling. It's very clearly the #2 game in the bracket

oh hey looks like I was right about Galaxy 2 dropping...!

man this contest kinda feels like 2002 where we're winging it based off of Sonic getting 80% on Pitfall Harry and Mega Man getting 90% on Serious Sam and thinking Mega Man is gonna win the contest because he got 90% twice

not that I'm complaining, us overreacting to everything makes it fun!

transcience posted...

today makes me feel good about:

Witcher > God of War
Dark Souls > Last of Us
Bloodborne > division 2

You think New Vegas can hang with ME2?

Previous Results: GTA held off its first actual challenger, and P4G barely put away RDR. Xenoblade looked like a beast and Three Houses put up another average performance.

Crew Predictions: 74/80

Next Round Thoughts: I think GTA ended up doing well enough to be considered the favorite over P4G next round. I mean I'd think GTAV > RDR but who knows. Xenoblade looks like it's going to make short work of Three Houses, as it has just looked on another level in its matches so far.

Crew Prediction Challenge:

Kleenex: 73
Moltar: 73
transience: 70
Leonhart: 69
Guest: 62

Crew Accuracy Challenge: transience gets the point for GTA, Xenoblade, and P4, and Hbthebattle gets the point for FE.

Moltar: 24
Kleenex: 15
transience: 15
Leonhart: 11
Guest: 11 (spooky96, Hbthebattle (3), Black Turtle, ctes (2), MetalmindStats (2), MechanicalWall, Kotetsu)

Leonhart4 posted...

Like do we think DMC5 is a clear and easy winner over Stardew Valley? Or do we think Galaxy 2 isn't that far from Odyssey? I don't think I buy either of those.

But I also think talking it up to beat Witcher because of the format of the contest when it couldn't even beat ME1 is silly!

I'd buy the first but not the second.

Sniperdog117 posted...

Yeah I tweet about moist matches. Not sure why, but it is a habit at this point.

One of the contests, they actually gave away t-shirts to people who promoted the contest on social media.

So, speedrunner, huh? What games?

Edit: Oh, nice! I wouldn't have the patience to speedrun an RPG. My attention span's too short, which is why the game I've been grinding out has an any% record of just under 13 minutes, and not because of crazy glitches.

TsunamiXXVIII posted...

One of the contests, they actually gave away t-shirts to people who promoted the contest on social media.

So, speedrunner, huh? What games?

I only really speedrun Valkyria Chronicles, as I am thousands of hours away from my goal, whatever that is.

BlAcK TuRtLe posted...

Hmmm, nahhhh. SSBU would get at least 55% on the Witcher's ceiling. It's very clearly the #2 game in the bracket

no its not clear.

ultimate could be a dud for all we know

Ultimate being a dud makes no sense. It's the biggest, boldest, and best selling entry in the series. Every trend we are aware of points to it being at a minimum where Brawl was in 2010. Yes "for all we know" it could be a dud, but that would be an incredibly stupid assumption to make

I can see Smash falling off due to an older crowd falling out of multiplayer or something. The campaigns are known to be worse since Brawl.

So even if Brawl ain't shit now, it doesn't mean Ultimate is peak Smash.

So I'm looking at the rally thread in the DS3 subreddit and half the posts in there are supporting New Vegas.

This is interesting, and very different from what we saw in the Bloodborne match.

Could be a fanbase thing. I'd wager those people have less reason to care about a nintendo weeb JRPG than for another Western AAA game like New Vegas.

Wonder if BB struggles more against RE2 because of that.

Hopefully

ZeldaTPLink posted...

So I'm looking at the rally thread in the DS3 subreddit and half the posts in there are supporting New Vegas.

This is interesting, and very different from what we saw in the Bloodborne match.

Could be a fanbase thing. I'd wager those people have less reason to care about a nintendo weeb JRPG than for another Western AAA game like New Vegas.

Wonder if BB struggles more against RE2 because of that.

New Vegas is highly respected among the core Fallout fanbase. Awakening is less so among the core Fire Emblem fanbase.

Awakening is more comparable to Fallout 3, Star Trek 2009, or (ahem) The Force Awakens. Although it's probably overall more highly-regarded than those three.

LinkMarioSamus posted...

Awakening is less so among the core Fire Emblem fanbase.

I don't think the "core FIre Emblem fanbase" is what you see in the Bloodborne subreddit though.