Game of the Decade: 2010-2019 Contest Analysis Crew - Part 3

I think the idea was that RPG vs. action game tends to favour the RPG.

I personally think Red Dead will take this, although it probably won't be by much. Oh no wait the x-stats have P4 winning, drat! Anyway I think if you set P4 and RDR equal in the 2015 x-stats then Twilight Princess is only slightly stronger than Metal Gear Solid, which might be plausible. Key word being might.

I don't think many RDR supporters picked it because they think it's stronger than Persona 4, but because it's facing a remake they don't expect to be as good.

That's why I picked it!

I think plugging these games into 2015 x-stats has FTL getting 15% on Twilight Princess and 13% on Mario 64, while Ghost Trick gets 16% on Shadow of the Colossus IIRC? So probably a close win for P4.

I also don't think Ghost Trick's loose association with Phoenix Wright matters all that much. You have to be a pretty hardcore fan to care about that. Board 8 does, of course, but most voters don't.

Mostly depends on how weak FTL is. And it could be VERY weak.

Seriously though, Three Houses has so much better writing, characters and gameplay that it just makes Awakening look worse. Three Houses didn't give a boost to Awakening, it killed it.

Octopath Traveler is currently looking like the most underrated game on this list. Honestly I thought it was fodder but it has the legs to take down both Undertale and Shovel Knight. Looks like the few people who predicted it beating Undertale are likely to be the bracket winners after this rampage. Super Mario Odyssey is probably a little too ambitious for it sadly.

MechanicalWall posted...

... what?

I read this ten times and can't make sense of it. Surely you're not saying Sekiro is more mainstream than MH in this comparison, right?

LinkMarioSamus posted...

I think the idea was that RPG vs. action game tends to favour the RPG.

Yeah this is basically what I meant by that, sorry if it was unclear.

MonHun being an RPG is more what GameFAQs usually goes for over an action game like Sekiro. To me if felt like Sekiro made more waves in the mainstream than MH: World did but that could just be in the groups I frequent.

Monster Hunter: World is known for being that franchise's breakout hit in the mainstream, kind of like Fire Emblem: Awakening or Persona 5.

I’m really surprised by Octopath. I would never have considered it over Shovel Knight. I feel like there are implications at play here that I’m not totally understanding yet.

Persona 3 was the breakout imo

pjbasis posted...

Persona 3 was the breakout imo

Nah, it's way less popular in the main than 4 and 5

Persona 3 was a big step up in popularity, then Persona 5 was another big step up in popularity

Exactly like Grand Theft Auto 3 and 5!

Persona 3 made the series known in weeb and hardcore JRPG circles, I mean anything was gonna be a big step up from P1 and P2.

LinkMarioSamus posted...

Mostly depends on how weak FTL is. And it could be VERY weak.

FTL vs Ghost Trick is giving me DR2 vs Inside vibes, with Ghost Trick maybe a bit weaker than DR2. Not sure about FTL, but from the little I know of it, it's definitely not a GameFAQs-style indie.

I'm starting to like RDR here.

If Ghost Trick = DR2, what does Red Dead get on RE2 and DOOM?

Gall posted...

If Ghost Trick = DR2, what does Red Dead get on RE2 and DOOM?

A lot.

Leonhart4 posted...

Nah, it's way less popular in the main than 4 and 5

You realize that persona 1 and 2 are even further back, like way further down than 3 is even from 4.

And since 4 basically copied the formula from 3, probably safe to say.

MechanicalWall posted...

Persona 3 made the series known in weeb and hardcore JRPG circles, I mean anything was gonna be a big step up from P1 and P2.

It barely lost to dqviii!

pjbasis posted...

You realize that persona 1 and 2 are even further back, like way further down than 3 is even from 4.

And since 4 basically copied the formula from 3, probably safe to say.

Oh, 3 was a big jump. It moved Persona up from cult to niche. It didn't get that popular in the main until 4, which took that formula and improved on it.

pjbasis posted...

It barely lost to dqviii!

On a site that adores JRPGs, yes

the jumps the persona series made before are all very small compared to the jump to Persona 5

i'm pretty sure P5 by itself sold more than every other Persona game combined, including spin offs. (and it put its main character in Smash)

P3 and especially P4 are responsible to pave the way by gaining a cult following. but the "breakout" is 5.

Eh, I wouldn't classify Persona 4 as cult.

Round 2 – Xenoblade Chronicles vs. Overwatch

Moltar’s Analysis

Xenoblade Chronicles
Round 1 – 78.43% vs. Splatoon 2

Overwatch
Round 1 – 55.90% vs. Death Stranding

Remember when D.Va won her Round 1 match in the last Character Battle and then got killed in Round 2 against actual competition?

Consider Xenoblade Chronicles ‘actual competition’. Between this and the sequel looking really good in their round 1 matches, this should be a very easy and very good looking win for it. I wouldn’t be surprised if Overwatch overperformed last round due to Death Stranding anti-votes, because I know Overwatch ain’t this site’s thing.

Moltar’s Bracket: Xenoblade Chronicles

Moltar’s Prediction: Xenoblade Chronicles – 67%

____________________________________________________________________________

transience’s Analysis

Xenoblade has had a good contest so far, between its big win over another Nintendo game and its baby brother giving Arkham City a good fight. It pretty clearly wins here as Overwatch isn't too much our thing.

I'm interested in this result because I think, like Bloodborne, Xenoblade has taken over favourite status from Three Houses. But Xenoblade's results have all been questionable because it's yet to get a really good barometer. Arkham City should be a decent one, but with games like Uncharted and Assassin's Creed going under expectations repeatedly, I'm less apt to give it all the credit. Xenoblade wins here but its upcoming matchup with Three Houses is still a bit of an unknown.

transience's prediction: Xenoblade with 69.33%

____________________________________________________________________________

Leonhart’s Analysis

Xenoblade put up perhaps the most unexpected near quadrupling of round 1 against Splatoon 2, but you could probably chalk some of that up to SFF. Overwatch scored an easy (if not unimpressive) win over Death Stranding. Overwatch is probably the strongest of its genre, but we tend to hate most of the games in its genre, so that’s not saying much! The point is that it doesn’t totally suck, so I’m not expecting Xenoblade to go sky high like we’ve seen against similar types of games, but there’s not much chance of Overwatch even keeping this one that close.

Leonhart’s Vote: Xenoblade Chronicles

Leonhart’s Prediction: Xenoblade Chronicles with 65.17%
____________________________________________________________________________

Kleenex’s Analysis

Is Xenoblade a monster? Maybe. That result against Splatoon was good even though I don’t think terribly highly of Splatoon to begin with. The Overwatch match is impossible to glean anything from because who the hell even knows what Death Stranding is actually worth. Regardless, Overwatch is still going to be weak and Xenoblade shouldn’t have any kind of issue. I’m not convinced it’s a division winner yet, but maybe today can convert me.

Kleenex’s Prediction: Xenoblade Chronicles with 63.75%
____________________________________________________________________________

Guest’s Analysis – Black Turtle

Xenoblade: 78.43% over Splatoon 2
Overwatch: 55.90% over Death Stranding

Xenoblade's strength has been a subject of debate since the first round results were in the books. I tend to lean on the side of the argument that it is weaker than expected. Something that gets brought up a lot is its performance in GotY polls, but I really think those values are way over inflated, due to it ending up as the sole Nintendo entrant against vote splitting PS/Xbox games. And this match has the potential to be very important, since there's a very real possibility that the winner will beat Fire Emblem.

To show just how useless a lot of those GotY polls can be, have a gander at this:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6574-best-of-2016-game-of-the-year

If you were to take that poll at face value, like the Xenoblade supporters are doing, that would put Overwatch at DOOM levels of strength, and Uncharted 4 as being stronger than both of them.

Instead of looking at 5+ year old GotY polls, let's use a little logic here. Xenoblade was a Wii U exclusive, that got a switch port. We've seen several other Wii U games badly underperform so far. Its round 1 match against Splatoon looks good on paper, but this is probably the worst SFF situation in the whole of round 1.

Lastly, if we look at the 2015 games contest, Xenoblade went even keel with DKC2, before DKC2 was destroyed by SotN. I would say that DKC2 level is Xenoblade's ceiling, and it has more than likely taken a stumble since then. In fact, pre-contest I had put Xenoblade to be around Death Stranding's level.

BT's Pick: Overwatch with 53.12%
BT's Bracket: Overwatch
BT's Vote: Overwatch

____________________________________________________________________________

Crew Consensus: Xenoblade is the favorite, but our Guest is picking Overwatch here.

Xenoblade was a Wii U exclusive

oh my god

Oh hey Shovel Knight might still do this

Oh and LOL BT

Good job BT.

Imagine actually talking with confidence when you don't know what you're talking about.

Master Moltar posted...

let's use a little logic here

Top 10 things said before a disaster

Xenoblade isn't a Wii U game, it instead shares the same console as the game that got the biggest blowout win of Round 1 for one thing.

How could someone even fathom Xenoblade being on Death Stranding's level? Maybe I just hear about Xenoblade a lot because it's Chuggaaconroy's favorite game and I'm a big Runaway Guys fan.

BT with a SND tier pick

transcience posted...

BT with a SND tier pick

I'd wager SND gets closer to being right...!

Another huge cut

I'll eat my hat and stop ragging on Xenoshit if it clears 60% on Overwatch. I'm still not convinced, and I think you guys are insane going so high. I think its close enough that it could go either way, but 65+%? No way

BlAcK TuRtLe posted...

I'll eat my hat and stop ragging on Xenoshit if it clears 60% on Overwatch.

Screenshotted for posterity

I wish the Xenoblade in the match was the WiiU exclusive.

because it's the one that deserves it

come at me

BlAcK TuRtLe posted...

I'll eat my hat and stop ragging on Xenoshit if it clears 60% on Overwatch. I'm still not convinced, and I think you guys are insane going so high. I think its close enough that it could go either way, but 65+%? No way

Really, I love OW but this site hates MP only games, MP games on here are what video games are to very religious parents raising kids. Maybe all of the umm.. unique... content to come out of it can give it a boost.

Also I just remembered that the OW subreddit has nearly the same amount of members as the PS4 sub, jesus! That's like 5X more than any other game left.

Comparing BT to SND is an insult to SND

KamikazePotato posted...

Comparing BT to SND is an insult to SND

I mean they're both Guru champs

If anything at least BT sounds like he believes in his picks.

wait wait

wait

i don't follow guru at all but snd won it once? what the heck happened?

it's almost as if there is minimal skill in actually winning a gamefaqs contest

xp1337 posted...

wait wait

wait

i don't follow guru at all but snd won it once? what the heck happened?

It was Rivals, I think. Either that or Years. One of the contests we don't actually care about!

I know, but that's still surprising information to me!

Maybe even moreso if it's one of the boring contests like Rivals or Years! One of the rally contests, I'd understand, but those always felt more like Series to me where I'd have expected there to be not many risks even in play.

You just have to get those one or two risks right in those contests!

Back in the day, SND used to act like a normal human being. Not quite sure what happened.

Mac Arrowny posted...

Back in the day, SND used to act like a normal human being. Not quite sure what happened.

GameFAQs: not even once!

Mac Arrowny posted...

Back in the day, SND used to act like a normal human being. Not quite sure what happened.

Same thing that happened to Ulti! Victory goes to your head!

At least I can take solace in knowing BT didn't let victory change him.

I think you can argue predictable contests might actually be harder to win because the amount of importance of getting a risk right is magnified. brackets are so similar that one bad move is nearly impossible to make up.

except for one round 1 match, SND's bracket in rivals was perfect. he nailed the literal three upsets that bracket had.

Shovel Knight takes the lead!

The Mana Sword posted...

it's almost as if there is minimal skill in actually winning a gamefaqs contest

✌🏻

I mean Palmer would've won a contest too if not for fun entry!