Game of the Decade: 2010-2019 Contest Analysis Crew - Part 3

I’m actually not opposed to someone thinking Minecraft could win here. it’s not super likely but spider man is a bit unknown and dead space 2 is likely to be very weak.

that said, the source involved has a history of questionable calls!

I feel like if you're picking Minecraft to win it's more because you think Spider-Man is weak than anything else. Its ceiling is relatively low.

Round 2 – Octopath Traveler vs. Shovel Knight

Moltar’s Analysis

Octopath Traveler
Round 1 – 53.29% vs. Undertale

Shovel Knight
Round 1 – 64.40% vs. Dragon's Dogma

The jury is still out on whether Octopath’s win against Undertale was due to legitimate strength or Undertale anti-votes. If it’s legit, then it could give Shovel Knight a good fight here.

I’m going to bet it was boosted with anti-votes though. Looking back at Draven and Sans, this site just does not forget! Shovel Knight had higher expectations than most of the other indie games as its seen as one of the stronger ones. Octopath is one that it can completely bury if it lives up to that strength.

Moltar’s Bracket: Undertale

Moltar’s Prediction: Shovel Knight – 60%

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transience’s Analysis

Shovel Knight seems pretty nicely defined as a decent indie. How decent is Undertale? I've been overestimating it for two contests now, and it's not because of the 2015 run. I just think higher of it than the rest of the site does, whether that's due to antivotes or just plain apathy.

That's what makes Octopath such a tough thing to judge. Polls wise it's not awful, and Monster Hunter's nice result has suggested that the Bravely Default games aren't too bad (relative to the competition in GOTD2, of course). Shovel Knight seems like the overwhelming favourite here but the percentages are tricky. I'm just going to jump off the Undertale bandwagon and given Octopath very little credit for what was a pretty nice upset win. Why did I pick Undertale here in my bracket again?

transience's prediction: Shovel Knight with 59.56%

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Leonhart’s Analysis

Octopath Traveler was the lowest seeded game to win a match in round 1. I can believe it has decent strength, especially after Monster Hunter/Sekiro makes Bravely Default look better by comparison, but how much of it was propped up by Undertale anti-votes? I believed that would be a real thing, pre-contest, but I figured it would have enough natural strength to get past round 1, at least. Clearly, I was wrong about that, but I don’t think I was wrong about my confidence in Shovel Knight. I think people are sleeping on how good that round 1 performance was. I’m not saying Dragon’s Dogma is a powerhouse by any means, but I don’t think it’s bottom-feeding fodder either. I expect Shovel Knight to win this one pretty comfortably.

Leonhart’s Vote: Shovel Knight

Leonhart’s Prediction: Shovel Knight with 60.45%
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Kleenex’s Analysis

Until proven otherwise, I remain convinced that Octopath sucks. I think its win last round was largely due to voters still being bitter over the 2015 results. Octopath is probably roughly equal to Dragon’s Dogma in my estimation, possibly slightly stronger, so I’m going to expect a similar result for Shovel Knight compared to last round.

Kleenex’s Prediction: Shovel Knight with 63%

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Guest’s Analysis – Dilated Chemist

Previous Results:





Kudos to those who predicted the infamous Undertale to receive it’s first L. It was an epic run. Octopath Traveler representing what is, in my opinion, the best genre in video games: traditional turn-based jRPGs! They have made a resurgence in recent years with games like Persona 5, DQXI, and Trails. It’s just something about them that I love dearly. Picture this: Final Fantasy XVI with the style of OT. Square going back to its roots with a new-age 16-bit turn-based jRPG. See what I did there? A man can dream…

Most might think Shovel Knight is the favorite here after it missed a doubling against Dragon’s Dogma. But maybe DD just isn’t that strong (sad, because it’s actually a pretty good game). Shovel Knight feels like a pseudo-Nintendo character though, it even has its own amiibo. I’ll admit that I don’t know much about this game other than you’re a knight who fights with a shovel. I was surprised to find out that Shovel Knight is NOT a Metroidvania game. Always thought it was.

Anyways, both games are on the Switch (and other platforms). Both games tug on the nostalgia strings. But my pick to win the battle of the 16-bits is…

Octopath Traveler with 55.25%

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Crew Consensus: Shovel Knight is the favorite, but once against our Guest is going against the majority.

Got Moltar hedged in

rude

Gotta find some way to stop you from piling up accuracy points!

These goddamn guests

Round 2 – Devil May Cry 5 vs. Super Mario Odyssey

Moltar’s Analysis

Devil May Cry 5
Round 1 – 57.41% vs. Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze

Super Mario Odyssey
Round 1 – 85.97% vs. Mortal Kombat 11

Man DMC5 winning doesn’t surprise me, but it winning so easily still kind of does. DKC:TF must be sooooo weak.

Well, the winner was going to get killed by Odyssey anyway, so whatever. Let’s see if Odyssey can go big again and put another scare in SSBU. With BotW’s round 2 performance and Mass Effect 2 looking really good today, I wouldn’t be surprised if the top games just wrecked these lower games until they run against each other.

Moltar’s Bracket: Super Mario Odyssey

Moltar’s Prediction: Super Mario Odyssey – 77%

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transience’s Analysis

I'm going to take a lesson here from Breath of the Wild: our best games are just a mile ahead of the rest. BOTW dropped a cool 85% on a round 2 opponent. Is DMC better than MK11? Probably, but we're not talking significantly better. Mario is the best at just blowing these kinds of games out. DMC had a nice result beating Tropical Freeze, but that game just isn't any good. I'm more willing to go high on Mario who might have more blowouts to his name than Dante has contest matches. That's probably hyperbole because Dante had a deep run in 2007 thanks to fortuitous bracket placement, but you know what I mean.

transience's prediction: Super Mario Odyssey with 80.01%

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Leonhart’s Analysis

In retrospect, I’m kinda glad Devil May Cry 5 is here because we’ll get to see Super Mario Odyssey’s true strength rather than watching it put an SFF beatdown on Tropical Freeze, as entertaining as that would have been. While there was some question in round 1 whether Smash or Mario had the weaker opponent, there’s no doubt who does this time. I was going to say that Odyssey would have no excuse for not getting a higher percentage again this round, but then I remembered people would just say Smash SFF’d Link Between Worlds! I’m still not sure this round will tell us too much about their upcoming showdown unless one of them ridiculously overperforms or underperforms though!

Leonhart’s Vote: Super Mario Odyssey

Leonhart’s Prediction: Super Mario Odyssey with 74.11%
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Kleenex’s Analysis

DMC5 defied the odds and took down a Nintendo game last round, can it do it again?

In actuality, Donkey Kong just sucks that much. Odyssey put up a monster result last round, totally murdering a game that by all estimation shouldn’t be *that* weak. It definitely has me thinking twice about which of the two Nintendo big boys makes it out of this division. I think there’s a very high probability that Odyssey comes out with another extremely impressive result this round too. I can’t imagine DMC5 being significantly stronger than MK11, but maybe I’m severely underestimating things. Still, the dick-measuring competition between Odyssey and Smash continues.

Kleenex’s Prediction: Super Mario Odyssey with 76.25%

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Guest’s Analysis – ctes

This is the real test for Super Mario Odyssey if it want to prove itself before facing Ultimate in the division finals. Devil May Cry 5 is probably pretty decent here, I don't think Tropical Freeze is completely useless and might've won a bunch of matches. If Odyssey can score above 70% here, then Ultimate should be scared that its at least indirectly stronger. Then we'll see how the 1v1 match might just be a matter of hierarchy I suppose.

I don't think Odyssey will quite get the 70%. I think both it and DMC5 will look legit by the end of this, which DMC5 at least probably does if it avoids a doubling. I think it just will!

Devil May Cry 5 - 33.85%
Super Mario Odyssey - 66.15%
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Crew Consensus: Odyssey pulls DMC’s Devil Trigger

Guest doubting Odyssey can get a doubling while one crew member goes for a quadrupling. Interesting.

I mean Odyssey only getting a doubling would be good for my bracket!

There's a strength line to be drawn somewhere, which says that if you're above it you're expected to be able to win a match in an all-generations BGE bracket (i.e. you are approx top 64 on the site). If you are on the right side of that line you probably kill most of this bracket (and how many are? I'd say probably only in the high single digits - BOTW, Skyrim, Witcher 3, SMO, SSBU, ME2, TLOU, God of War, P5, maybe Nier/Pokemon HG/SS/Persona 4).

I'm expecting Odyssey to get a way higher percentage here and a bunch of people to start doomsaying. LBW gonna be strong!

Kotetsu534 posted...

(and how many are? I'd say probably only in the high single digits - BOTW, Skyrim, Witcher 3, SMO, SSBU, ME2, TLOU, God of War, P5, maybe Nier/Pokemon HG/SS/Persona 4).

Don't forget LBW. DQ11 too, I'd say.

Eh, I think DQXI would be firmly middle of the pack in a regular games contest.

top 64 is a real dangerous conversation because the depressing fact is it's just sequels from our top 3 series + smash. that could potentially be as many as half the games.

now I want to make a list

Zelda 1
LTTP
Link's Awakening
Ocarina
Majora
Wind Waker
Twilight Princess
Breath of the Wild
Link Between Worlds

Mario 1
Mario 3
Mario World
Mario 64
Mario Galaxy
Mario Odyssey
Mario RPG
Mario Kart 64

FF4
FF6
FF7
FF8
FF9
FF10
FF Tactics

Smash Melee
Smash Ultimate
Smash Brawl/4?

there's 26-28, so yeah, pretty close.

Let's see how it does v BOTW! I'm unconvinced - hanging 71% on Bastion is nice and all, but are there 70-odd games that could do that?

yeah I'm not convinced that DQ11 is better than FF15 with its competition

I'd also add Super Mario Kart and Super Mario Galaxy 2 to transience's list above. That's 28-30, and then I'd put the following pre-2010 games outside of those top 4 series in that territory:

Chrono Trigger
Metal Gear Solid 1-3
Pokémon RBY + GSC
Mega Man 2 + X
Resident Evil 4
Kingdom Hearts 1-2
Fallout 3
Super Metroid + Metroid Prime
Half-Life 2
Symphony of the Night
Oblivion
Shadow of the Colossus
GoldenEye
Tetris

That leaves plenty of room for 2010s games to squeeze in - definitely Dark Souls, Skyrim, and Witcher 3, plus at least 11 slots to be fought over by 2010s midcarders like God of War and pre-2010s midcarders like BioShock. However, even if those next 11 are all 2010s games, I'm not sure I'd take DQ11 to be among them.

I’m pretty confident that DQ8 beats 11, but I could be wrong.

ya go my Spider-Man

Octopath (and thereby Undertale) might be legit...!

wow, octopath! I spent so much time debating Undertale vs Shovel Knight in my head and maybe the answer is neither.

Mario not so good so far — maybe MK11 is just awful.

I think Minecraft has a shot at 40%+ by the way it kept creeping up during the board vote, which would be a good result for it.

Hell yeah, jRPGs!!

more like super trash brothers

even in defeat the LAW is the LAW

Minecraft left me down, nuts! Oh well good job to you guys

yeah man who saw that coming

Ultimate has more Links than ALBW so its only natural it wins

SuperNiceDog posted...

Minecraft left me down, nuts! Oh well good job to you guys

surprisedpikachuface.jpg

this is a strange day where every single game seems underwhelming

I think Smash and Odyssey are doing fine. LBW underwhelmed last round, but it's still a Zelda game. I think we can now say that MK11 was just straight garbage more than anything else.

maybe. I love round 2 - everything starts to fall into place but not definitively. tomorrow will be a lot of fun.

We're just used to an 80% blowout every other day. Today's games are pretty much meeting expectations without too much craziness and that's bizarre.

Yeah, the results have been pretty intriguing so far.

I'm not really sure next round will tell us a lot about Smash/Odyssey either! I'd take Spider-Man over Shovel Knight, but it would probably be close.

Previous Results: Wow ME2! Turns out it's R1 performance was misleading and RE7 was stronger than most thought. It had no problem doubling FO4. Horizon, RE2, and Bloodborne all won somewhat close matches, the latter with a little outside help even though it didn't really need it.

Crew Predictions: 66/72

Next Round Thoughts: If this ME2 shows up next round it should take care of Horizon with ease. Another Bloodborne rally could give it the edge next round against RE2.

Crew Prediction Challenge:

Kleenex: 65
Moltar: 65
transience: 62
Leonhart: 61
Guest: 57

Crew Accuracy Challenge: Leon gets the point for ME2 and Horizon, Moltar gets the point for RE2 and Bloodborne.

Moltar: 24
Kleenex: 15
transience: 10
Guest: 10 (spooky96, Hbthebattle (2), Black Turtle, ctes (2), MetalmindStats (2), MechanicalWall, Kotetsu)
Leonhart: 9

Round 2 – Grand Theft Auto V vs. Cuphead

Moltar’s Analysis

Grand Theft Auto V
Round 1 – 79.27% vs. Baba Is You

Cuphead
Round 1 – 68.28% vs. XCOM 2

FFXV/Hollow Knight part 2?

In the hunt for the GTAV upset, we’ve got our first contender here in Cuphead. It was looking to be one of the stronger indie games in this contest, and did not disappoint in round 1.

The thing here though is that GTAV also did well in Round 1. GTA usually doesn’t score blowouts here, but it did managed to do that even if its opponent is one of the weakest games here. Maybe the site doesn’t hate GTA as much as it used to? At least not this one.

Like with Hollow Knight, I think Cuphead is punching slightly above its weight here. Maybe call it some kind of indie game ceiling? Even if Cuphead is equal to or stronger than Hollow Knight, GTAV looks like it would beat FFXV with ease even on its worst day.

Moltar’s Bracket: Grand Theft Auto V

Moltar’s Prediction: Grand Theft Auto V – 54%

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transience’s Analysis

On the surface, this match has GTA SA/Golden Sun written all over it. There's no world where an average GBA RPG should realistically contend with one of the biggest games of all time in a popularity contest, but we're gamefaqs and we're trained on Nintendo and nostalgia. I feel the same way about Cuphead, except we probably like GTA5 more than the other GTA games and Cuphead doesn't have that 90s nostalgia. It's got some weird 20s nostalgia instead!

I think Cuphead is going to come out and make this match look REAL bad in the opening minutes, maybe even be at 60%+ at the freeze. GTA is notoriously bad early and games like Cuphead have been early vote killers. But I think GTA5 has enough to get past the upstart indie game. It started out pathetically against Baba is You but ended up with a quadrupling. I guess you could also compare this to FFXV/Hollow Knight, actually, except that GTAV managed to get to 80% while FFXV could only get 75%. That 5% strength gap might be enough.

transience's prediction: GTAV with 55.45%

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Leonhart’s Analysis

Here is the next big indie test. Hollow Knight put up a valiant effort against Final Fantasy XV but came up just a few hundred votes short. Can Cuphead succeed where Hollow Knight failed? Well, the first thing we should ask is whether Grand Theft Auto V is stronger than Final Fantasy XV. GTAV put up nearly 80% on Baba Is You, while FFXV put up nearly 75% on What Remains of Edith Finch. If you assume the opponents are basically a wash, GTAV would 60/40 FFXV. If Edith Finch is stronger than Baba Is You, I don’t know that it’s THAT much stronger.

Now is Cuphead stronger than Hollow Knight? Cuphead went for the higher percentage against XCOM, but how much stronger would XCOM be (if at all) than Tales of Berseria? If you assume the two opponents are equal, Cuphead would put up 57% on Hollow Knight. That would hypothetically give GTAV a slight advantage here, but there’s the X-factor we have to consider, which is GTA’s propensity for choking in close matches. When’s the last time GTA won a close, debated match? It honestly might be Vercetti/Kefka all the way back in 2005! I’m not sure if this match will be close enough for that to be a factor, but I do believe that your name brand value matters in close matches where a big upset is possible. FFXV wins a close match, while Dragon Age and Walking Dead lose. I imagine we’d be chomping at the bit to see GTA lose if it’s in any way close. I think I’ll still side with GTAV, but I wouldn’t mind being wrong!

Leonhart’s Vote: Cuphead

Leonhart’s Prediction: Grand Theft Auto V with 54.64%

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Kleenex’s Analysis

Hoo boy. It’s extremely hard to trust any kind of Grand Theft Auto game in contests. GTAV wasn’t able to break 80% against Baba is You, and given what we saw from FFXV the other day, we know what that means for games that can’t beat bottom-barrel indie titles. Cuphead looked decent, but I really have no idea how strong or weak XCOM2 actually is. If I did my math right (which I probably didn’t), it looks like XCOM would basically need to double Baba is You in order for Cuphead to have a shot here. That seems...doable, but it’s probably a stretch. I’m still licking wounds from that terrible Fallout pick, so I’m going to stick with GTA to take it every so slightly, but this could definitely be an upset in the making.

Kleenex’s Prediction: Grand Theft Auto V with 53.50%

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Guest’s Analysis – Luster Soldier

FFXV narrowly survived elimination at the hands of an indie game, now it's GTAV's turn to see if it can do the same. Cuphead is stronger than Hollow Knight, but GTAV would also be stronger than FFXV. Both games looked good in round 1, but the results are of no use in judging this match as we don't know the strength of the games that lost to them.

We did already see a GTA vs. indie match back in 2015, and it was San Andreas holding Shovel Knight under 40%. San Andreas wasn't even the strongest GTA that year (it was GTAV), and Shovel Knight still looked bad there. Cuphead is stronger than Shovel Knight, though it might not be enough to put it above GTAV's level. Even right now, Shovel Knight is showing that it has a chance of making it to round 3 should it hold on against Octopath, so I wouldn't completely write off Cuphead in its match.

The board vote is going to be rather ugly as GTA (and Rockstar in general) has some of the worst board votes of any games on this site.

Luster Soldier's Bracket: Grand Theft Auto V

Luster Soldier's Prediction: Grand Theft Auto V - 52.95%

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Crew Consensus: GTA hijacks Cuphead’s R3 chances.

alright crew curse is in order, let's make this cupset happen

2.5% spread huh

Think I'd like having the high pick but who knows!

i was waiting patiently for the guest topic for round 2 to come up so i could steal GTA/Cuphead and i was too slow

but that means now Cuphead wins just like I was going to predict because crew curse aw yeah

I did the math about what Baba is You (what a title) would get on XCOM 2 if GTAV and Cuphead were equal in strength too. I feel like it would be more realistic to assume XCOM 2 is really that weak and would only 60-40 Baba is You, which would make GTAV/Cuphead a 60-40 match in the former's favour.

Then again, I actually find it believable that Baba is You could get 18% on Mario RPG like direct extrapolation suggests. Maybe you can just think of it as 20% on Oblivion if you find that more palatable. Mario RPG is not that strong of a game - don't be fooled by its semi-final appearance in 2015.

I'm almost caught up to the guest!

Round 2 – Persona 4 Golden vs. Red Dead Redemption

Moltar’s Analysis

Persona 4 Golden
Round 1 – 77.77% vs. FTL: Faster Than Light

Red Dead Redemption
Round 1 – 78.87% vs. Ghost Trick: Phantom Detective

An even looking match on paper between a more niche game that’s really up GameFAQs alley vs. a more mainstream game that’s not GameFAQs jam. Monster Hunter making short work of Sekiro made me feel better about Persona 4 Golden here. We love us some Persona on this site, and I feel our voters will flock to it over RDR in a head-to-head match-up.

Moltar’s Bracket: Persona 4 Golden

Moltar’s Prediction: Persona 4 Golden – 55%

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transience’s Analysis

I think pretty highly of Red Dead. I think it has GTA5's audience + a few extra people who get into the western setting and atmosphere. It had a nice 79% result on Ghost Trick, which isn't strong by any means but most likely isn't bottom tier fodder thanks to the Phoenix Wright connection. It's a game that would fit in with our sensibilities but its association with GTA makes it tricky.

I think Persona 4 Golden, like the other remakes in this contest, look good vs. weak competition and could potentially suffer when up against a real opponent. We just saw RE2 get 58% on Doom, but RE2 is probably "more" of a remake than P4G is. We saw P4G start really slowly vs. FTL in round 1 in the opening minutes which suggested to me that Persona 4 isn't full strength Persona. Still, it managed to put up a cool 78% on a game, something that some other mid-tier games couldn't pull off vs. weak opponents, even GTA. FTL vs. Ghost Trick is probably a push so this matchup is probably really close, and the remake stigma could be enough to get RDR over.

I have a weird feeling about Rockstar games though. We talk a lot about Nintendo or RPGs being the core focus on this website, but I actually think our biggest bias is towards Japanese games. We just want that Japanese sensibility. You can run down a list of the strongest games on this website and it will be a surprisingly long time before we get to a non-Japanese game.

I think Persona might be able to squeak by just on the basis that it's up against these dirty western games. We clearly like the series and Persona 5 is one of our biggest RPGs of the decade. It wouldn't be completely shocking if it beat some higher regarded WRPGs like Witcher or Skyrim either, just given our bias. I'm going to hang my hat on Persona to channel the core audience over a western simulator like Red Dead,

transience's prediction: Persona 4 Golden with 52.11%

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Leonhart’s Analysis

I’ll be honest, I’m not a big believer in Red Dead Redemption. I didn’t think it looked all that great in 2015, and then Automata easily outdid its number on Bayonetta 2 at the end of round 1. To me, this is a question of what people think of Persona 4 Golden more than anything. I’d take P4 at peak strength over RDR here. Will people hold Golden’s port status against it, or the fact that the original game isn’t from this decade? We know ports and remakes tend to be much weaker than their original incarnations in GOTY polls (and ports moreso than remakes), but this is the first time we’ve seen a straight up enhanced port in a contest. People tend to vote differently between contests and regular POTDs though, and I think Golden showed me enough in round 1 for me to feel confident in picking it here.

Leonhart’s Vote: Persona 4 Golden

Leonhart’s Prediction: Persona 4 Golden with 55.70%
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Kleenex’s Analysis

This one could actually be pretty close too! I’d probably put FTL on about the same level as Ghost Trick, so going by that this is another 50/50 match. I’m certainly more prone to side with the game GameFAQs actually cares about over the one that we kinda don’t. I’m still not totally sold on Persona 4 being a monster or anything, either, so RDR could still definitely win this.

Kleenex’s Prediction: Persona 4 Golden with 54%

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Guest’s Analysis – Sir Chris

So, I have Persona 4: Golden winning this division, and after seeing what happens when a handheld RPG goes up against a mature game in Bloodborne versus Fire Emblem: Awakening I feel like I might be in a little trouble. Except that I think there is a lot of reason to believe that Persona 4 > Fire Emblem and Bloodborne > RDR, so I am going to go with that until I am forced to cry a large river.

I don't think anyone cares about the 'Golden' attached to this Persona entry. I think, much like Final Fantasy XIV, even if someone hasn't played the actual game if there is enough good will towards a title in general terms it can overcome playrate limitations and Persona 4 is among the most beloved games and has aged well with Persona 5 now taking up the mantle for the series. I always envisioned that if Persona was going to win this division it would be in a series of very close matches much like what SotC went through in facing off against the MGS series, and I think RDR is going to be the weakest game it faces by a small margin!

Sir Chris' Prediction: Persona 4: Golden with 54.44%

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Crew Consensus: No redemption for Red Dead here.

Crew curse Redemption

Thanks for the curse

oh dear

Oh god two crew curses in a row. At least one of GTA and Persona is copping it... hopefully GTA.

Master Moltar posted...

An even looking match on paper between a more niche game that’s really up GameFAQs alley vs. a more mainstream game that’s not GameFAQs jam. Monster Hunter making short work of Sekiro made me feel better about Persona 4 Golden here.

... what?

I read this ten times and can't make sense of it. Surely you're not saying Sekiro is more mainstream than MH in this comparison, right?

I think it's more of Eastern vs. Western

Also I fully expected a sweep there. We love us some Persona.

http://www.capcom.co.jp/ir/english/finance/million.html

Monster Hunter is Capcom's best selling game of all time!

But both Sekiro and MH are Japanese games...