Game of the Decade: 2010-2019 Contest Analysis Crew - Part 3

Borderlands looked pretty miserable early on vs. Bloodstained before turning it on. that's the only one that feels in doubt to me at this point.

Yeah, Borderlands 2 has a chance, but I wager it also had brackets, so I don't know if its board vote is as bad this time.

if it has brackets here, it had brackets then too!

transience posted...

if it has brackets here, it had brackets then too!

Eh, we bracket vote more when we're afraid it might lose! I don't think people were as afraid of it losing to Bloodstained.

okay yeah looks like 3/4 for me

I think the crew overall went 4/4, so good job crew

transience posted...

okay yeah looks like 3/4 for me

I think the crew overall went 4/4, so good job crew

I could've gone 4/4 if I hadn't taken a shot on DOOM

All those mental gymnastics to justify Fire Emblem winning...

I really should have went with my gut when I was finalizing my bracket, FE > BB was literally the last change I made

So I take it that RE7 is the most unfair seeding in this contest?

We all messed one up except moltar

Hmmmm.....

Yeah, I think Bloodborne and Horizon are both in the clear after that update.

I really wanted Moltar's sole bracket risk to be wrong too

Right now, RE2 gets 88,5% against INSIDE.

The Mana Sword posted...

We all messed one up except moltar

Hmmmm.....

transience posted...

I really wanted Moltar's sole bracket risk to be wrong too

:)

another easy point for the 1 seed for me!

Did… Did Moltar just make the cookie the first guru elimination of the contest? What a hero.

further proof it's not good to just copy the cookie

MechanicalWall posted...

All those mental gymnastics to justify Fire Emblem winning...

I really should have went with my gut when I was finalizing my bracket, FE > BB was literally the last change I made

It was a good pick pre-contest. Smash boosting FE games

DoctorJimmy133 posted...

Did… Did Moltar just make the cookie the first guru elimination of the contest? What a hero.

This is hilarious. One risk! Poor cookie.

that's what the cookie deserves for believing in Borderlands 2

Previous Results: Zelda dominated just as hard as it did in Round 1. Turns out Halo Reach is just as weak as Outer Worlds (and both would beat Life is Strange that makes sense). FF15 struggled with Hollow Knight, though it's not a good sign for indie games when one of the stronger ones can't even beat one of the weaker Final Fantasy games. Monster Hunter put down Sekiro surprisingly easily. Either that was a bad match-up for it, or Sekiro is about equal with Bravely Default.

Crew Predictions: 62/68

Next Round Thoughts: Zelda wins, and DQ still looks to be in good position to beat MonHun.

Crew Prediction Challenge:

Kleenex: 62
Moltar: 61
transience: 59
Leonhart: 58
Guest: 56

Crew Accuracy Challenge: Leon gets the point for Zelda, Moltar gets the point for FF, Kleenex gets the point for MonHun and DQ.

Moltar: 22
Kleenex: 15
transience: 10
Guest: 10 (spooky96, Hbthebattle (2), Black Turtle, ctes (2), MetalmindStats (2), MechanicalWall, Kotetsu)
Leonhart: 7

Man, I almost had it with Dragon Quest, but it just bled too much percentage at the end. Bastion even outright won an update. *sigh*

Looks like I got everything right today.

Round 2 – Super Smash Bros. Ultimate vs. The Legend of Zelda: A Link Between Worlds

Moltar’s Analysis

Super Smash Bros. Ultimate
Round 1 – 82.98% vs. Tekken 7

The Legend of Zelda: A Link Between Worlds
Round 1 – 63.50% vs. Bayonetta

Smash match? Time to save some words.

Zelda is one of the few things that can stop Smash, but not this Zelda. Not a handheld Zelda. It would have had to crush Bayonetta for me to give it a look here. If anything, Smash is going to make it look bad due to SFF.

What a waste.

Moltar’s Bracket: Super Smash Bros. Ultimate

Moltar’s Prediction: Super Smash Bros. Ultimate – 68%

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transience’s Analysis

This seems like a prime SFF match, something we don't have a lot of in this contest. Zelda isn't on the losing side of that too often, but Smash is one of the biggest games of the decade here while LBW is a portable game that didn't have a lot of staying power. It's more than a simple distant memory but it's probably not a top 10 game here either. I'm not picturing a big contingent backing Zelda here, and I expect that people think Smash has righted the ship after Mario looked a half step better in round 1.

transience's prediction: Super Smash Bros. Ultimate with 72.04%

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Leonhart’s Analysis

The number to watch out for here is 56.87%. What’s the significance of that? That’s the highest percentage The Legend of Zelda has ever given up in a 1-on-1 match. That was Super Mario 64 vs. Twilight Princess in 2015. In fact, both of Zelda’s worst losses were at the hand of Mario games, with Super Mario Bros. 3 getting 56.78% on Zelda 1 in the 2004 Games Contest. Can Super Smash Bros. Ultimate outdo that number here? It feels like it would be a bit of a disappointment if it couldn’t, but you must always respect the LAW.

I feel like most people were underwhelmed by what A Link Between Worlds did against Bayonetta in round 1 because, after all, it’s a Zelda game that (technically) won Game of the Year. But keep in mind that the other two finalists that year were The Last of Us and Grand Theft Auto V, which are fine games but hardly possessing elite strength. There’s a reason this game didn’t make it into the 2015 contest despite us calling it a snub. Its floor is relatively high because it is still a Zelda game, but I wager it doesn’t rank very highly for the average Zelda fan. I am curious to see how high Smash Ultimate can get and if it can apply some SFF. We should see a new record, but the Nintendo hierarchy manifests itself in weird ways sometimes!

Leonhart’s Vote: Super Smash Bros. Ultimate

Leonhart’s Prediction: Super Smash Bros. Ultimate with 64.64%
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Kleenex’s Analysis

ALBW just got a one-way ticket to SFF town. This one is probably going to get ugly and that’s a damn shame given how good ALBW is. The fact that it is ZELDA might help the same save face slightly, but not much. This’ll be a very disappointing result for Smash if it can’t push 75%, in my mind.

Kleenex’s Prediction: Super Smash Bros. Ultimate with 74.50%

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Guest’s Analysis – Sniperdog117

Time for sad match number 2 of Division 3! ALBW really got bad bracket placement, being fed to SSBU. I find it funny that two GotY winners on this site are facing each other round 2.

But there’s quite the difference between their GotY wins: ALBW was in a three-way with two western games, while SSBU was in a 1v1. Oh and ALBW might be a Zelda, but its a handheld Zelda, and sadly those do not do well around here aside from LA. (if LA 2019 had a lot of new content and was in, I wonder how it would hold up, being a Switch game that did well) I personally have always preferred 2D Zelda over 3D, so I really wish ALBW got a better position in the bracket.

Anyways, SSBU is really strong, it did a quadrupling in the round with a bunch of quadtruplings. ALBW did 63.5% on Bayo 1, which is alright? Don’t have that good of a read on that game. Its obvious that SSBU is going to win, and I hope that ALBW resists SFF by enough to look good in the match.

Super Smash Bros Ultimate-72.33%
A Link Between Worlds- 27.67%

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Crew Consensus: Link get smashed for once.

You guys are going wayyyy too high with Smash here.

Bloodborne went to town overnight and made FE look straight up ugly.

It got rallied on reddit

I was wondering if any GOTY lost this early in the first GOTD, then remembered GTA and CoD doing so.

Ngl the only really surprising result for me here is Horizon-BL2 being the closest match. I thought there was a window here for Horizon to whoop Borderlands way harder than this.

On the plus side, this makes Bloodstained one of the stronger indie games in bracket, right? That's nice.

The FE-Bloodborne match makes me cringe so, so hard. Really makes me vow to put my gut over everything else.

Any chance FEA/Bloodborne would be the closest match if Bloodborne didn't have that rally?

I'll believe Zelda gets beat down with SFF when I see it

(Please let me see it)

ctesjbuvf posted...

Any chance FEA/Bloodborne would be the closest match if Bloodborne didn't have that rally?

It's hard to say how much it's affecting the other matches. Horizon started going up around the same time the rally took off, but that could be natural trends.

Maybe this'll be the first real test for rSFF

Horizon is also a Playstation 4 exclusive alongside Bloodborne, so it's probably the biggest beneficiary of rally spillover

RE2- Doom seems largely unaffected which is about right, neither game should be an overwhelming favorite in the Souls community. Me2 vs Fallout is also whatever.

I don’t know anything about a rally but, uh, I think I’d take FE Awakening over Doom

Isn't Fallout 4 the really bad one that all the fans of the series turned their backs on?

You're probably thinking of Fallout 76.

transcience posted...

I don’t know anything about a rally but, uh, I think I’d take FE Awakening over Doom

Yeah, but I think it would be close. It's not like Awakening is anything special.

Tbh, it's both. Lots of people did not like Fallout 4, but Fallout 76 is meme level bad.

Round 2 – Marvel's Spider-Man vs. Minecraft

Moltar’s Analysis

Marvel's Spider-Man
Round 1 – 69.93% vs. Dead Space 2

Minecraft
Round 1 – 75.71% vs. Dota 2

Well, Minecraft looked good last round because it faced a game that GameFAQs doesn’t like. Now it’s up against a game that the site does like! That spells bad news for it since it can’t coast by on apathy and anti-votes anymore.

Spider-Man did well enough in round 1 that I feel good about it winning with little problem here. Don’t forget, this site doesn’t care for Minecraft, even Halo was able to beat it up.

Moltar’s Bracket: Marvel's Spider-Man

Moltar’s Prediction: Marvel's Spider-Man – 65%

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transience’s Analysis

Part of me wants to think that voters will start to give Minecraft some credit at some point. It's one of the biggest games of the decade, after all! Spider-Man is a fine game, but there's something fraud-y about it, especially given that it's similar to the Arkham games and City just struggled to put away Xenoblade 2.

The more realistic scenario is that Spider-Man just beats down Minecraft because people liked it and Minecraft isn't at all our jam. That's a pretty nice Dota 2 result though!

transience's prediction: Spider-Man with 62.21%

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Leonhart’s Analysis

Spider-Man and Minecraft both put up good numbers against weak opponents, but however weak Dead Space 2 might be, I’d still take it over Dota 2, which might end up being the weakest game in the X-Stats when this is all said and done. I felt confident in Spider-Man before the contest, and nothing I’ve seen so far has changed my mind. Minecraft isn’t outright hated like some of the more massively popular things out there that just aren’t in our wheelhouse, but I think we mostly just tolerate it and begrudgingly respect it rather than like it all that much.

Leonhart’s Vote: Marvel’s Spider-Man

Leonhart’s Prediction: Marvel’s Spider-Man with 65.57%
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Kleenex’s Analysis

Minecraft managed to get by last round by being paired up against a game no one on this site gives a damn about. I don’t think too many people have super strong feelings about Spider-Man either, but it should really not have any issue winning this match. Minecraft is weak as hell, and Spider-Man gets to be the lucky entrant to take advantage of some good bracket placement.

Kleenex’s Prediction: Marvel’s Spider-Man with 67.50%

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Guest’s Analysis – SuperNiceDog

This is gonna be a very close matchup. Most of the Gurus are going with Marvel's Spider-Man, 82% of them:

http://thengamer.com/guru/stats.php?match=74

Is 75% vs Dota 2 that Minecraft put up in the first round worth more than Marvel's Spider-Man's 70% vs Dead Space 2? I think it's very close, but Minecraft's performance was slightly better. In a matchup of Dead Space 2 versus Dota 2 I think Dota 2 would win with like 50.4% of the vote. Some would say Dead Space 2 would win though.

Minecraft put up 43.2% on the original Halo back in the 2015 Games Contest:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6065-best-game-ever-day-4-minecraft-vs-halo-combat-evolved

Which is a decent enough performance. I think it should get more respect vote for this contest, as voters seem to taking into account a game's influence on the entire decade. They respect Minecraft for the impact it had, and I have a gut feeling that when it gets matched up with a Marvel game, they'll slightly lean more towards the phenomenon over the latest superhero iteration game.

Also, Minecraft started off as an indie game, which should help it a little since indie games have mostly been overperforming this contest.

Would Marvel's Spider-Man do better than 43.2% on Halo today in April 2020? Maybe.

Marvel did perform very well in the early 2019 poll of best PS4 game(of 2018), coming in a distant second place to God of War:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7462-best-of-2018-playstation-4

It actually beat Dragon Quest XI and RDR 2 in that poll! That's a lot of stength. However, I think it actually overperforms in those multi-way polls because of the superhero factor. Just a hunch. People know Spider-Man, they'll vote based on a brand if they haven't played a lot of the other options.

Overall I think Minecraft has shown just enough strength to barely get by Marvel's Spider-Man in a very close showdown.

Minecraft wins with 50.2% of the vote.

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Crew Consensus: Most are backing Spider-Man, but the Guest is picking Minecraft.

let's do this

Mass Effect 2 = Fallout 3
Mass Effect 3 = Fallout 4
Mass Effect Andromeda = Fallout 76

guest please

I haven't gotten an accuracy point in like 4 weeks but I'll take the 50%-62% range gladly on Spider-Man

Not again SND

SND is bound and determined to pick against Spider-Man at every opportunity

I say SND is preemptively banned from taking the Spider-Man match next round just so he never gets to be right about it.

crew is meant to be for fun, but it still feels kinda dumb to allow someone to participate when they repeatedly make picks they don't even believe in

transience posted...

let's do this

Mass Effect 2 = Fallout 3
Mass Effect 3 = Fallout 4
Mass Effect Andromeda = Fallout 76

Reputation wise, I think it's more

Mass Effect = Fallout 3
Mass Effect 2 = Fallout New Vegas
Mass Effect 3 = Fallout 4
Mass Effect Andromeda = Fallout 76

And Fallout 2 = KOTOR or something.

Is 75% vs Dota 2 that Minecraft put up in the first round worth more than Marvel's Spider-Man's 70% vs Dead Space 2? I think it's very close, but Minecraft's performance was slightly better. In a matchup of Dead Space 2 versus Dota 2 I think Dota 2 would win with like 50.4% of the vote. Some would say Dead Space 2 would win though.

Some is a weird way of saying everyone minus you

I don't think Spidey is going to get anywhere near the doubling, but it probably doesn't outright lose!

I feel like Minecraft could probably double Dead Space 2. Seems like it's being underrated a little here.