Game of the Decade: 2010-2019 Contest Analysis Crew - Part 3

LeonhartFour posted...

unless you're calling for Hollow Knight to win by a similar margin this round as it did last round

Maybe...!

In all seriousness I don't think Berseria is equal to FF15 but I think it beats Edith Finch pretty badly. That game is on the same level as all the trash indie games that struggled to get 18%. I also thinking you're conflating Hollow Knight with Celeste and Binding of Isaac, when Hollow Knight is on another level compared to those.

ZeldaTPLink posted...

Berseria only needs to double editch finch though.

right and I believe it can do that

it's not like I'm picking FFXV to blow Hollow Knight's doors off here

Hollow Knight has a chance but I'm starting to think its ceiling isn't quite as high as we originally imagined as I watched round 1 play out

I don't think Hollow Knight's ceiling is high but I think FF15's is low. People straight-up do not like that game. To me this feels more like a repeat of Dragon Age vs. Ori in the works.

And it might be! But the FF name is still worth a heck of a lot more than Dragon Age's is, and that could be enough to swing a close match.

In the crew's defense most of them admitted it's possible.

It would have been a perfect curse post if not for guest.

The 'it has a brand name' argument hasn't been doing so great this contest, so we'll see. I don't know why I'm arguing so strongly for Hollow Knight when I don't have it in my bracket but hey

I'm also banking on the repeated pattern that the indie games I don't care about will do well, while the ones I like flop! Maybe if I'd played Ori already this Round 1 wouldn't have been so bad for me!

I mean, the brand names that have failed have been the brand names we don't care about that much to begin with! I just think FFXV is more likely to benefit from "default votes" with forced voting than Dragon Age would be.

transcience posted...

I need a better result than beating a modern Tales game to convince me it can beat a mainstream FF game. Hollow Knight has gained this momentum here that I don’t get.

It's a typical Board 8 response to one of their shitty board darlings getting "upset"

Round 2 – Bastion vs. Dragon Quest XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age

Moltar’s Analysis

Bastion
Round 1 – 52.25% vs. The Walking Dead: A Telltale Games Series

Dragon Quest XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age
Round 1 – 80.67% vs. The Legend of Heroes: Trails in the Sky SC

Hey turns out getting doubled by Uncharted 2 means you aren’t strong enough to win a match no matter how weak the opponent is. Bastion only beat it with 52% though, so it’s not all that far in strength from a game that we already knew wouldn’t be worth much.

Dragon Quest should be stronger than Uncharted so this should at least be a doubling. For some reason I’m a little skeptical about the strength of DQ11 as it’s probably midcard at best. 70 seems like a decent middle ground to expect it to land around.

Moltar’s Bracket: Dragon Quest XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age

Moltar’s Prediction: Dragon Quest XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age – 70%

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transience’s Analysis

I feel like today's matches will reveal the truth about the 'indie game boom'. I'd love for it to happen, but every game that's punched above its weight has been because of its opponents. Tales sucks, Walking Dead sucks and Bioware sucks. Bastion moves from what is essentially a visual novel game, to probably the #2 JRPG franchise after Final Fantasy..

DQ always finds a way to impress in contests, from 8 beating up Persona 3 to 11 blowing out Trails. DQ always gets RPGs so maybe that has more to do with it, but it seems to me that Bastion will probably go down pretty hard here. I could see it attracting a slight bandwagon after its surprise win but it's not going to break 40%.

transience's prediction: Dragon Quest XI with 64.78%

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Leonhart’s Analysis

Bastion pulled off the first upset of the contest in knocking out The Walking Dead. It was a feel-good story to see an indie game knock out a highly respected game from 2012 that won a lot of awards, but it’s probably out of its depth here. Dragon Quest XI put up 80% on Trails in the Sky SC last round, and while it probably says more about Trails than DQ, I have a hard time imagining Bastion putting up 80% on anything. It won’t get blown out quite as badly, but I’d be surprised if this is anything less than a doubling.

Leonhart’s Vote: Dragon Age XI

Leonhart’s Prediction: Dragon Age XI with 70.57%
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Kleenex’s Analysis

Bastion had a great win last round, but it’s up against a completely different caliber of opponent this time around - one that doesn’t afford much of a chance of winning. DQ11 looked quite strong last round, and while its ultimate path in this contest is pretty much set in stone, it should look good here again today. The Kid never had a shot.

Kleenex’s Prediction: Dragon Quest XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age with 70.75%

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Guest’s Analysis – Nintendogs

Previous results:

Bastion - 52.25% against The Walking Dead
Dragon Quest XI - 80.67% against Trails in the Sky SC

Bastion pulled off a solid upset against The Walking Dead, but the performance was chalked up to The Walking Dead's weakness more than anything else, and for good reason. Reception has changed for worse since its last contest appearances, and didn't even do so well even in its prime. The Walking Dead just very well could be among the most bottom entries of the contest, and Bastion took good advantage of it.

Dragon Quest XI on the other hand, blew out Trails in the Sky in a convincing manner, even if that game is also likely to be around rock bottom. But if a game is to have any respectable strength, then it's gotta blow out fodder games in a convincing manner, which is what Dragon Quest just did. With its positive reception plus GameFAQs liking very traditional JRPG's, the game should have no problem taking down Bastion.

Prediction: Dragon Quest XI at 73.33%
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Crew Consensus: Dragon Quest levels up again to Round 3

augh hedged in

70% seems really high for a Dragon Quest game to hit. I was thinking low-mid 60s

well you were also considering Bastion to win this match originally so

LeonhartFour posted...

the more the indies underwhelm in matches we think they should win the less confidence I have in something like Hollow Knight

I don't think any indie game in round 1 beat a game that would beat FFXV

I agree. I really think the likely explanation for most indie success so far is "their opponents really sucked". Dragon's Dogma was probably weak years ago and is now completely forgotten (I do like that its name rhymes with Ghetto Gospel...). DA:I similarly - it probably just sucks, it's precisely the kind of low tier western game that isn't going to retain strength (if freakin' Uncharted, with somewhat memorable characters, can't hold up over the years, how is 2nd tier Bioware going to manage it?). Destiny would lose to damn near anything, and Stardew Valley might be the #1 indie. XCOM2? Completely not our thing (and I respect Cuphead as a bit of an exception). Tales of Berseria? Probably weaker by a good step than Vesperia, and it lost easily to Borderlands 10 years ago. If only it had a Switch release...

If games from major publishers are really weak they can of course lose to the stronger indies. Is FFXV that weak? Probably not. It's hard for me to imagine a game that won the GOTY 4 years ago falling that far.

I suppose I should address the FF7 remake - I don't think it has any measurable effect on FFXV's strength here. I would guess pretty much everyone is already set in their vote here, and that's not going to change just because a huge FF that's hopefully less disappointing than FFXV just came out.

And transience, I don't know if your statement about Tales vs. mainline FF was meant as hyperbole, but if not, I have a hard time buying any of II, III, X-2, XI, XIII, XIV, or XV beating Symphonia. I'd also take V and XII to have close matches at least.

To Kotetsu's post, I think it's a mix. Yes, all the big indies drew brittle opponents (though DA:I is at least in our wheelhouse, while Dragon's Dogma still has a devoted fanbase), but I also think there's only so weak many of those games could be, and conversely there's reason for games like Hollow Knight to actually have a little strength here.

MetalmindStats posted...

I'd also take V and XII to have close matches at least.

You really overestimate FFV then. It's never been in a contest for a reason.

Unless Zodiac Age has done wonders for FF12, I can't see it beating ToS either.

that Zelda board vote tho

wow, I was surprised at my 64% pick for DQ11 and I wrote it! I wonder if I meant 74. I honestly don’t remember and I think I went in the 70s in oracle. oh well!

regarding Tales - I meant mainline offline games, the ones that matter, 4+ I guess. I don’t think a lot of Symphonia in 2020. it would probably beat 13, 15 would be a push, and 5 who knows? it wasn’t hyperbole, but it also wasn’t anything I thought about for more than a few seconds. I just think a lot of mainline final fantasy.

I like 15 here. indie games seem to do well early. hollow knight is holding up better than I expected, but I don’t think it’s got a good chance to win. we’ll see.

oh wow, egg on my face!

uh oh FFXV

Real talk I would take FF13 over FF15

People hate both of those games but FF13 came out when we had lower standards, and...that's my reasoning

happy Easter ff15

If games from major publishers are really weak they can of course lose to the stronger indies. Is FFXV that weak? Probably not. It's hard for me to imagine a game that won the GOTY 4 years ago falling that far.

Yes, yes it is.

wow, that turned on FFXV fast. nice job guest.

Sekiro looked like it would have a chance and then nope! I guess BD has a legit match with Sekiro? feeling worse about Three Houses every day

Me, an idiot, pre-contest: Man this fields might be weak enough that FFXV does decent!

transience posted...

Sekiro looked like it would have a chance and then nope! I guess BD has a legit match with Sekiro?

Sekiro currently gets 52.56% on Bravely Default

I think Sekiro will gradually bring this down

oh hey looks like FFXV isn't dead yet

KamikazePotato posted...

I don't think Hollow Knight's ceiling is high but I think FF15's is low. People straight-up do not like that game. To me this feels more like a repeat of Dragon Age vs. Ori in the works.

People straight up not liking it is the reason why I keep insisting you can't make much out of not being able to put up a better number on Edith Finch. There's only so high that FFXV can go against something not also disliked.

I think FFXV pulling this off could be the difference between the FF name and the Dragon Age name

FFXV pulling it off could be entirely due to FFVIIR coming out yesterday.

Eh, I dunno about that. I'd sooner chalk it up to "you have to vote in all four matches so I'll just vote for FF."

Fair. And there's certainly a match where people would want to weigh in and pile on--this board loves Zelda and hates Halo.

But man, I hope it stays this close. To have a match like this two days in a row after taking all of Round 1 to get one?

Previous Results: Rayman pulled off the upset against Celeste, another yikes for indie games in this bracket. Everything else was as expected. Nier looked pretty good!

Crew Predictions: 58/64

Next Round Thoughts: Pokemon wins. Nier wins.

Crew Prediction Challenge:

Kleenex: 58
Moltar: 57
transience: 55
Leonhart: 55
Guest: 54

Crew Accuracy Challenge: MetalmindStats gets the point for Pokemon and Moltar gets the point for Divinity and Nier.

Moltar: 21
Kleenex: 13
transience: 10
Guest: 10 (spooky96, Hbthebattle (2), Black Turtle, ctes (2), MetalmindStats (2), MechanicalWall, Kotetsu)
Leonhart: 6

well at least I've got the Zelda point wrapped up for today

seriously how did no one else go 80%+

Yeah I was surprised by that too. Would've definitely predicted Outer Worlds > Life Is Strange!

who needs accuracy points anyway

The Mana Sword posted...

who needs accuracy points anyway

me

I can't lose to the guests of all people

I guess FFXV is going to pull this out after all. not a very convincing win!

tomorrow's matches are all kinda nuts. I don't think a single one is a for sure thing!

I'm pretty confident in all my picks tomorrow... except for the one that I guest wrote for.

Round 2 – Mass Effect 2 vs. Fallout 4

Moltar’s Analysis

Mass Effect 2
Round 1 – 62.94% vs. Resident Evil 7: biohazard

Fallout 4
Round 1 – 71.72% vs. VVVVVV

ME2 was unlucky last round as it was one of the stronger games that wasn’t able to score a blowout because it faced one of the stronger lower seeds. RE2 doing extremely well helps show that RE series is in right now on GameFAQs (and in general), so I could see RE7 having a good reason to hold up in its match.

Fallout 4 looked good in Round 1, but it’s hard to say how impressive 71% on VVVVVV actually is. As the later rounds start, it’s going to be less about who sized up the best against fodder and more about how many people actually care about the game.

In this case, I believe Mass Effect 2 was both popular enough and remembered fondly enough to stand out more in people’s minds than Fallout 4. Fallout is known, but it didn’t resonate with people like ME2 did. It should perform respectably, but come up short in the end.

Moltar’s Bracket: Mass Effect 2

Moltar’s Prediction: Mass Effect 2 – 55%

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transience’s Analysis

I'm feeling *very* uneasy about Mass Effect 2. It's just disappointed too many times. It bombed against Starcraft in 2015 and didn't impress vs. a low-tier RE. Dragon Age just bombed against Ori, too, which gives off the feeling that Bioware is down across the board. That lines up with how Bioware has been over the last 5 years: bad.

Fallout 4 had a great result vs. VVVVVV, a game that's pretty popular with the indie scene. Going off of results only, I think Fallout 4 had the better first round unless Resident Evil is just really hot (which is very possible, but eh). Bethesda games just seem better than Bioware games at this point.

I'm going to stick with Mass Effect here just because I feel like people really love that game, and it gets mentioned as game of the decade fairly regularly. Fallout 4? it seems small-time compared to a monster like Skyrim. I think voters will fall in line.. but I kind of expect a result like that Starcraft match, where ME2 limps its way into the third round with RE2 lurking.

transience's prediction: Mass Effect 2 with 52.21%

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Leonhart’s Analysis

I think everyone who had Mass Effect 2 winning the division panicked after its underwhelming showing on Resident Evil 7, and probably for good reason. RE7 was no doubt underseeded, but there’s still only so strong it’s going to be. However, I don’t believe there’s too much cause for concern until the division finals. I think people propping up Fallout 4 as an upset pick are overreacting. Getting up to 71% on VVVVVV after that rough start was an impressive rise to heaven, but as we’ve seen all the 75-80%+ blowouts since then, I think it makes Fallout 4 look decidedly average by comparison. At least Mass Effect 2 beat a well-liked game from a popular series.

And if anyone wants to talk about how Andromeda killed the Mass Effect series and how it’ll damage ME2, the same applies to Fallout 4 after the disaster that was Fallout 76. The big difference is that Mass Effect 2 was the most beloved game in the series before that happened, and Fallout 4 wasn’t. I think ME2 wins this one fairly comfortably.

Leonhart’s Vote: Mass Effect 2

Leonhart’s Prediction: Mass Effect 2 with 59.50%
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Kleenex’s Analysis

If you asked me pre-contest if I thought this would have been a debatable match, I’d have scoffed. And yet here we are. How strong could Resident Evil 7 actually be? 62% on that game looks downright pathetic, even with RE2 seemingly being a monster. To be fair, I’m also a bit skeptical of how strong VVVVVV actually, but there’s no doubt Fallout looked better coming out of the first round. So I think that’s where I’m going to put my money. Bioware games seem to be in an inescapable hole at the moment, even the well-liked ones.

Kleenex’s Prediction: Fallout 4 with 53%

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Guest’s Analysis – tennisboy213

Fallout 4 looked great against VVVVVV, overperforming the Oracle consensus by nearly 6%. On the other hand, Mass Effect 2 underperformed the Oracle consensus by nearly 4% against RE7. People were calling for Fallout 4 > Mass Effect 2 right away. I think VVVVVV was a little overestimated in that match due to the INDIEFEAR that was running rampant early in the contest though. Still, a good performance. And the Mass Effect 2 underperformance can be chalked up to the Resident Evil name being bigger and more respected than we thought.

This is a tough one. Both series have their haters. I'll admit I was one of the people sweating after the round 1 matches. Mass Effect 2 is the big Guru favorite and I have it in my bracket as well. But I just can't get over how good Fallout 4 looked in round 1, combined with Mass Effect 2's (slight) underperformance. Maybe I'm overestimating VVVVVV and I'll look stupid in the end, but the writing may be on the wall here.

Fallout 4 - 50.5%
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Crew Consensus: We got another split! Mass Effect is the slight favorite today.

huh

all right then

It's difficult for me to imagine Fallout 4 beating ME2 heads-up. Like, even if Fallout 4 is somehow indirectly stronger I doubt the WRPG cabal picks it over ME2 in a direct matchup. There's an inherent difference in level of respect there.

Then again, Bioware's name is mud right now. Then again, so is Bethesda's!

Mass Effect 2 is more likely to break 60% than lose.

53% might be a little aggressive on my part, but yeah, I just can’t get over that round 1 result. We’ll see!

I just think Fallout 4's result became less impressive as time went on. I can at least believe RE7's strength is respectable, but how much does VVVVVV beat, say, Virtue's Last Reward, which Diablo III put up a similar number on?

Fallout 4's 70 percent on V only looked impressive on the 3rd day of the contest when there was still 'indie fear'. On day 15 it actually looks pretty bad, as far as indie games go V does not have the durable fanbase of the Knight duo or even Bastion and Meat Boy. There's an outside chance ME2 actually does better vs Fallout than it did vs Resident Evil

heck I'm not sure Bastion beats VVVVVV by all that much and DQXI is putting up a better number on that, and I sure wouldn't take DQXI to beat ME2

62% on RE7 is a lot more impressive to me than 71% on VVVVVV, unless we believe RE7 is weak enough that VVVVVV can almost break 40% on it.

I've already said this for other "lesser" 2017 games like Nier, but I feel people are way underestimating RE7 just because it mostly got overshadowed in its GotY polls. We've just seen Hollow Knight, at best 2017's 7th strongest game, taking 2016's GotY to a near draw. Not to mention, RE7's still a well respected mainline Resident Evil that's credited with "making RE great again" after the atrocity that is RE6.

Yeah ME2 is NOT dropping that.

Getting Ocelot/Wily vibes.

I hope you guys are right! 62% on RE7 seems really bad, especially if we're looking at RE2 coming up soon. I still took ME2 just because of the respect factor.