Game of the Decade: 2010-2019 Contest Analysis Crew - Part 3

Hey everyone! The Contest Analysis Crew is back at it again, and this time, we’re going to write a lot of words about the second Game of the Decade Contest.

If you’re new here, the Contest Analysis Crew has been running strong since 2004. It’s a group of (self-proclaimed) contest experts that take a deep look at all of the matches in the Contest. We make predictions on who we think will win and how much percentage they’ll receive. It’s a lot of fun and I hope you enjoy the ride!

Current Guest List: Send write-ups to mastermoltar@gmail.com

The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild vs. Halo: Reach - DoomTheGyarados
Final Fantasy XV vs. Hollow Knight - MetalmindStats
Monster Hunter: World vs. Sekiro: Shadows Die Twice - TsunamiXXVIII
Bastion vs. Dragon Quest XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age - Nintendogs

Mass Effect 2 vs. Fallout 4 - tennisboy213
Borderlands 2 vs. Horizon Zero Dawn - Kotetsu534
Resident Evil 2 vs. DOOM - Sniperdog117
Fire Emblem: Awakening vs. Bloodborne - MechanicalWall

Super Smash Bros. Ultimate vs. The Legend of Zelda: A Link Between Worlds -
Marvel's Spider-Man vs. Minecraft - SuperNiceDog
Octopath Traveler vs. Shovel Knight - SwiftyDC
Devil May Cry 5 vs. Super Mario Odyssey - ctes

Grand Theft Auto V vs. Cuphead - Luster Soldier
Persona 4 Golden vs. Red Dead Redemption - DoomTheGyarados
Xenoblade Chronicles vs. Overwatch - BT
Ori and the Blind Forest vs. Fire Emblem: Three Houses - Hbthebattle

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*~CREW STRANDING~*

Moltar: I’m finally here, I’ve reached Square Knot City after over two weeks. Now just let me connect to this terminal and…

???: Hello?

Moltar: Hey, you’re Leonhart right? Here’s the delivery you asked for.

Leonhart: Ah yes, please send in it.

EPISODE 2

“LEONHART”

Leonhart: Package content looks to be in good shape. Definitely could have been delivered here faster though, I’d rank it a B overall.

Moltar: what

Leonhart: Is there anything else?

Moltar: Yeah my payment.

Leonhart: I can pay you in Likes does that count.

Moltar: god this world sucks

Leonhart: Alright if that’s all then-

Moltar: Wait! So I’m also suppose to ask you to join the network to help reconnect GameFAQs and yadda yadda.

Leonhart: Oh? Hmm, yeah sure I’ll join.

Moltar: Wow that was easier that I thought.

Leonhart: Well, these essential supplies will greatly assist the people of Square Knot City. There are great advantages in being connected to the network.

Moltar: What did I end up delivering anyway?

Leonhart: Analyses

Moltar: ...you gotta be joking

Leonhart: Write-ups, diction, rhetoric, words; the most powerful tool we have in this day and age. With these, we can truly bring forth the knowledge and understanding to reconnect GameFAQs. From the bottom of my heart, thank you for delivering these packages.

Moltar: Oh yeah there were multiple packages. What’s in the other ones?

Leonhart: ...Very important limited edition Final Fantasy figurines.

Moltar: ugh

…

Allen: Good job Moltar, now that this facility is connected, I can communicate further instructions to you and tell you where to head next.

Moltar: awesome so you’re gonna follow me around on my adventure i’m so happy to hear this

Allen: Your next delivery is to Kleenex at Nintendo Knot City. It’s a large area that needs a great amount of supplies.

Leonhart: Yes, and you may encounter some dangers along the way. There are some locations that are populated with TROLLS.

Moltar: With what now?

Leonhart: TROLLS, humans that have lost their way and purpose in life. They lost their mind after the state of the world turned south, became mentally unstable, and spend their days roaming around and causing trouble for anyone that crosses their path.

Moltar: Great, I guess it wouldn’t be a true adventure without any obstacles to overcome.

Allen: Yes, and I’m sure there will be other threats that will try to hinder you in your mission.

Moltar: Cool foreshadowing bro.

Allen: Anyway, we can’t afford to waste another minute. Moltar, head to Nintendo Knot City and meet up with Kleenex. Deliver these packages to him and convince him to join the network. That is all.

Moltar: Can I at least get a vehicle this time?!??!

*~CREW STRANDING~*

I approve of my role in this story

I approve of mine (not being in Death Stranding apparently)

I expect your role is still to come

transience posted...

I approve of mine (not being in Death Stranding apparently)

lol

Round 1 – Divinity: Original Sin II vs. Hearthstone: Heroes of Warcraft

Moltar’s Analysis

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6083-best-game-ever-day-9-zelda-ocarina-of-time-vs-hearthstone

Moltar’s Bracket: Divinity: Original Sin II

Moltar’s Prediction: Divinity: Original Sin II – 70%

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transience’s Analysis

Uh. I guess everyone will pick Divinity here because Hearthstone got killed so bad by OOT in 2015. I subscribe to that obvious line of thinking, but like.. is Divinity really worth much? Polls suggest it is, and quite honestly they're surprising. I don't know that I fully trust them. I know this is an RPG site first and foremost, but I always felt like the main thing people said about Divinity was "oh yeah, I forgot about that game!".

Hearthstone probably gets worked here, but at least it's well-known and has an actual decent playrate? Also, every game gets worked by Ocarina. Journey got annihilated by FF7 and it's currently beating.. well, okay, it's beating a gacha game. Nevermind, Divinity has this. I'm not going to go sky-high though.

transience's prediction: Divinity: Original Sin II with 64.44%

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Leonhart’s Analysis

Divinity: Original Sin II is one of the games I had never heard of prior to this contest (which doesn’t necessarily reflect poorly on the game itself! I’m just saying I didn’t know what it was!), and now here I am picking it to win a contest match! Hearthstone was absolutely pathetic in 2015. I’ve seen people say that it underperformed because it faced Ocarina of Time, but I don’t buy that. For one thing, OoT was underperforming on everything else it faced that contest. Secondly, you can’t be held well under 10% unless you just plain suck. Even Link/Ganondorf at the height of extreme SFF wasn’t as bad as that Hearthstone result. We just don’t like games like this. It’s going to fall in line with the Destiny, Dota 2, and Fortnite beatdowns.

Leonhart’s Vote: Divinity: Original Sin II

Leonhart’s Prediction: Divinity: Original Sin II with 78.53%
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Kleenex’s Analysis

What is going on here. Neither of these games should be winning a match, and yet here we are. Y’all remember this?

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6083-best-game-ever-day-9-zelda-ocarina-of-time-vs-hearthstone

I know you do. How about this one?

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5750-best-of-2014-game-of-the-year

And this was when Hearthstone was at its most popular. It’s still played now, but in no way does it have the same fervor and excitement it did 5 years ago. Not that Divinity is that much better, but even the original Divinity straight up beat Hearthstone in the PC GotY poll. I don’t see much reason to give Hearthstone a real shot, but man both these games are weak.

Kleenex’s Prediction: Divinity: Original Sin II with 67.25%

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Guest’s Analysis – tennisboy213

Divinity: Original Sin II should be fodder, but it actually didn't do too badly in the 2017 game of the year polls where it won the PC poll. Also it's an RPG on RPGFAQS and it's available on multiple platforms including being released on the Switch last year.

In a contest like this, I actually don't think Hearthstone will be bottom of the barrel. It actually quadrupled The Talos Principle and beat Binding of Isaac: Rebirth (hey we should have seen the Nioh upset coming) in the 2014 game of the year polls. But it's still bad. It finished dead last in the 2015 x-stats.

We actually kind of saw this match before. I'm not sure how seriously to take a massively multiway poll, but the original (heh) Divinity: Original Sin put up 56% directly on Hearthstone in the 2014 game of the year polls. For some reason, I just don't see this being that close. The sequel should be maybe a little stronger, and being more recent, especially with it's recent Switch release, should hold up a little better. As such, I'll take that percentage and bump it up some.

Divinity: Original Sin II - 66.66%
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Crew Consensus: The only sin here is Hearthstone making this contest.

I tried DOSII and found it an incomprehensible mess. It feels so old.

Highly skeptical that Rayman Legends > Tales of Berseria! It's not impossible, but I doubt it.

I think I'd take a weak Tales of game over a platformer that is a. not Mario (and to a much lesser extent, not Sonic or Mega Man) and b. is not indie

I wouldn't at all be surprised if Rayman Legends is...well one of the weakest games in the bracket. It's a damn good game. I love it. I love Celeste even more than I do that game though!

Round 1 – NieR: Automata vs. Bayonetta 2

Moltar’s Analysis

The original Bayonetta was wasted in R1 with a match it couldn’t win, and the sequel gets the same treatment!

I mean I guess Nier could bomb here since we haven’t seen the game in a contest setting yet. 2B did very well in the 2018 contest, but this could be a Dante/DMC situation where the character is much stronger than the game.

That doesn’t seem too likely though, as even in GotY polls, Nier has held up against very strong 2017 competition. If RDR2 could get 63% on Bayo2, Nier should go above that. I’ve got high hopes for it!

Moltar’s Bracket: NieR: Automata

Moltar’s Prediction: NieR: Automata – 67%

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transience’s Analysis

Our last round 1 match! Finally!

2B was 2018's most pleasant surprise, and Nier has had surprisingly good poll results. It somehow found a way to break through to the masses: people really regard Automata as one of the decade's great RPGs. This isn't a GameFAQs creation. Something about Nier's crazy style and storytelling really resonated with people, and it probably goes beyond 2B.

It'll be fun to see how good it actually is, and if it can handle Pokemon. Nier is hot right now thanks to the surprise announcement of Nier Replicant ver.1.224774487139... . Yes, you read that right, there is an ellipsis in the title. That's just the weird crap that Nier gets away with. It's wildly creative with a sense of style and could be one of this bracket's strongest games.

If it bombs, its opponent could clean up. The Bayonetta games really got a tough draw this contest, and this one would beat Celeste, Rayman, Divinity or Hearthstone. Bayo2 isn't as good as 1 since it was a dreaded Wii U exclusive, but it still managed 36% against Red Dead Redemption which probably puts it in the top half of games here. Nier is.. probably about as strong as Red Dead? It's really hard to say where that game lies, and if 2B has a Dante-like appeal then it could be massively overrated. As I said before, this is an RPG site first and foremost, so I'll trust Nier to keep Bayonetta in line. Welcome to round 2, guys.

transience's prediction: Nier: Automata with 64.22%

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Leonhart’s Analysis

Whew, final match of round 1! I’m interested to see how Automata does after 2B’s surprise performance in 2018. I’ve seen people point out that she’s very likely to be like Dante, where the character is stronger than the game because of a cool design. I think this is a little different because 2B isn’t the sole central focus of Automata the way Dante is for Devil May Cry (for most of the games anyway), or to draw an example from its opponent, the way Bayonetta is. Plus, just looking at its GOTY results, Automata seems to have gained more traction here than most Devil May Cry games. It just seems to be more up our alley since it’s more like an action RPG than just a straight up action game.

I do think Bayonetta 2 is a tough lower seed for Automata to draw in order to flex its muscles. We saw the original put up a respectable performance against Link Between Worlds earlier. While 2 is probably noticeably weaker than 1, it’s not on the level of the bottom feeding fodder most of the top 2 seeds in each division have had to face. I don’t think it means much for Automata’s future prospects if it doesn’t put up a massive number. Somewhere in the mid-60s is probably good enough, but who knows!

(Bring on round 2)

Leonhart’s Vote: NieR: Automata

Leonhart’s Prediction: NieR: Automata with 66.77%
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Kleenex’s Analysis

I re[a]lly hope NieR ends up [b]eing legit. I’m still a little wary about how strong it a[c]tually is, but I feel like the game is [d]efinitely mor[e] popular than it was during the 2017 Game o[f] the Year polls. 2B looked pretty reasonable back in 2018. Not that this all really matters. Much like Pokemon, NieR has been served up two easy matches to start off. We saw Bayonetta 2 lose to Red Dead in the 2015 [g]ames contest, and I’d certainly take NieR over Red Dead. I would expect NieR to pus[h] around 70% here, but [I]’d be ecstatic if it could really lay down a huge number today. Platinum games SFF??

Kleenex’s Prediction: NieR: Automata with 72%

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Guest’s Analysis – ctes

Now finally round 1 closes off and while we've had a couple of upsets and debated matches, there's still nothing that appears to have changed about our thoughts of the important matches since all the strong games faced fodder basically. Of course there will still be some people using the matches as "evidence". In NieR's path, it's all about whether it can beat HGSS, since it'll absolutely not get past Skyrim and it will absolutely not lose before round 3 either. HGSS faces complete fodder, so we'll get no read on that just yet, but we might get a read on NieR individually, because it's facing something we've actually seen in a contest setting before.

Bayonetta 2 managed to safely avoid the doubling against Red Dead Redemption back in 2015 with 36% then. I believe Bayonetta 2 will be slightly better this time. It has been released on Switch as well and generally new Nintendo is looking better again than back then. The difference between it and the first one is probably less than last time. Bayonetta is a respected and well-known name by now and seeing as it wasn't Nintendo exclusive it first, it probably draws votes from more than that. Even though 2 is likely weaker, I doubt it'll lose big time.

On the other hand, I expect NieR to be stronger than Red Dead Redemption. Not my all too much, but enough that I believe it can beat Pokemon games post-GSC (and whether HGSS counts we'll see). 2B looked really good last contest and while she's just the type of character we like, it still shows that we care about NieR. We don't really care much for RDR. Therefore, I believe we'll see numbers around a doubling.

NieR: Automata - 65.38%
Bayonetta 2 - 34.62%
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Crew Consensus: Nier moves on to Round 2B.

Nier Automata will probably be decently strong, but I would not at all be surprised at 2B being stronger than the game itself. She's one of THE sex icon of this gen of games. You made it big when you're included in those weird ads on the sidebars of pornhub.

Oh I don't think there's any doubt 2B is stronger than Automata

This is a weaker field than the character battle though, and Automata is a hell of a lot more seen as a generation-defining game than say, any of the Bayonettas or Devil May Crys are. I think it'll do fine.

you guys will probably just shift to calling Celeste weak, but I'm not super surprised to see Rayman doing decently here.

Celeste more like Suckleste

also this is a darn good showing for Automata

this would put it well above 2015 RDR1

Doing my pre-contest analysis, I remember lamenting how chalky this bracket looked, and so far, that's held up. We've literally only had 6 seeding upsets so far (maybe 7 if Rayman pulls this off), and 3 of them have been 10 > 7.

whew I think Celeste is safe for now

Crew curse averted it would seem

There's just too much absolute crap for interesting matches in R1 (and even the interesting matches we have had have been fodderfests other than DMC5/DKCTF - Ori/DA:I, UT/Octopath, TWD/Bastion, DBZF/RL, now Celeste/Rayman). It doesn't help that some games that would have had at least tad of strength - e.g. Pokemon Sun/Moon (and other versions!), Zelda Skyward Sword, Smash for Wii U, Mario 3D World, God of War 3, FFXIII (don't lol too hard, it would beat half this bracket!), Phoenix Wright didn't make it in.

I don't think either Dual Destinies or Spirit of Justice would have beaten too much in this bracket, no matter how bad it is!

but this is a literal once in a decade event so I'm okay with some of the third tier entries from more prominent series being left out for games that would never make a contest otherwise

Previous Results: For a day where we knew so little about the competition, everything ended up going pretty much as expected.

Crew Predictions: 55/60

Next Round Thoughts: Skyrim gonna stomp Journey, FF14 and MK8 might be debatable, but I think MK8 is still the favorite there.

Crew Prediction Challenge:

Kleenex: 55
Moltar: 54
transience: 52
Leonhart: 52
Guest: 51

Crew Accuracy Challenge: Kleenex gets the point for Skyrim and MK8, and Moltar gets the point for Journey and FF.

Moltar: 19
Kleenex: 13
transience: 10
Guest: 9 (spooky96, Hbthebattle (2), Black Turtle, ctes (2), MetalmindStats, MechanicalWall, Kotetsu)
Leonhart: 6

comin’ for that accuracy lead

no it's mine stay away

Round 2 – The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild vs. Halo: Reach

Moltar’s Analysis

The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild
Round 1 – 85.02% vs. The Outer Worlds

Halo: Reach
Round 1 – 56.15% vs. Life is Strange

I’m not super convinced that Halo: Reach is stronger than Outer Worlds, but the Halo name probably keeps it over 20% here?

Whatever, this should be another 75%+ victory for BotW. Round 2 off to a rousing start (the other matches today are more exciting I promise)

Moltar’s Bracket: The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild

Moltar’s Prediction: The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild – 78%

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transience’s Analysis

Round 2! Round 2! Finally! I've been advocating that this thing should have been a 64 item bracket and BOTW/Halo: Reach feels like the perfect 1/16.

Obviously Halo gets killed. BOTW is on another level. I'll be interested to see if Halo can keep it under a tripling or if BOTW just has a statement win that tells the rest of the contest that it's over. There's really not much else worth saying here - Halo beat Life is Strange, but it didn't kill it and LIS/Walking Dead always felt kinda tied at the hip. If Walking Dead can lose to Bastion then Halo probably could have too.

transience's prediction: Breath of the Wild with 77.55%

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Leonhart’s Analysis

Ah, round 2, we finally made it! I was about to say that it’s almost time to put all these 80% blowouts behind us, but I wager Breath of the Wild has at least one more in it! I’m not sure Halo: Reach would beat The Outer Worlds, but even if it did, I wager it’d be close. Based on their round 1 performances, Reach would have to be able to get 62.55% on Outer Worlds to get over 20% in this match, and I can’t see that happening. Man, it feels good to be able to use actual contest data to make my analysis again!

Leonhart’s Vote: Breath of the Wild

Leonhart’s Prediction: Breath of the Wild with 83.50%
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Kleenex’s Analysis

Finally! We’ve made it to round 2 and we can put most of those pointless blowouts behind us! For our first round 2 match we have…*checks notes*...oh.

Kleenex’s Prediction: The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild with 78.50%

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Guest’s Analysis –Sir Chris

I think Zelda has been a bit overhyped this contest and on this site lately, to be honest! We treat each new Zelda game like a unique juggernaut but you know what? Halo has a dedicated fanbase and there are plenty of people who are sick and tired of seeing Zelda win everything around here. People think this is going to be some massive blowout but in reality Halo is going to put up a performance that is going to make us remember that it isn't turbo fodder and it has to be respected.

The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 76.89%

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Crew Consensus: Round 3 is out of reach for Halo.

Round 1 overall was average at best, pretty cookie, 80% of matches done after 10 min. Stilll fun tho

wow kinda surprised I'm the only one who went 80%+ here!

we all got that halofear

dang, super disappointing showing for Celeste

Crew Curse isn't off the table yet

save_us.usa

Round 2 – Final Fantasy XV vs. Hollow Knight

Moltar’s Analysis

Final Fantasy XV
Round 1 – 74.65% vs. What Remains of Edith Finch

Hollow Knight
Round 1 – 62.81% vs. Tales of Berseria

hmmmmmmmm

Hollow Knight’s win over Berseria looked really impressive on day 1 of the contest. It made us think that “Hey, indie games might be worth something here.” Well, that definitely didn’t apply to most of them as the round progressed. At this point, I could buy Berseria just being really weak and Hollow Knight taking advantage of that despite not being all that strong itself. Turns out there was a lot of super fodder in this bracket.

Indie games can beat up other indie games or dead/forgotten games, but will have a really hard time against legit, or even semi-legit competition. FF15 is what I’d consider semi-legit. Final Fantasy is a name here, and FF7 Remake just came out. Square resurgence!

I think Hollow Knight puts up a decent fight, but FFXV is a little bit out of reach for even one of the stronger indie games here.

Moltar’s Bracket: Final Fantasy XV

Moltar’s Prediction: Final Fantasy XV – 54%

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transience’s Analysis

Happy Final Fantasy VII Remake Day! Well, yesterday-ish, but close enough. Before I get into that, let's talk about this match. FFXV isn't anything special and we all know that. But it still managed to win a GOTY poll. It still has the Final Fantasy name on it. Hollow Knight beat up on a weak game, and that looked pretty cool, but FF is the big leagues, even low tier FFs. The weakest mainline FF probably still beats the strongest Tales game. That's not a guarantee, but it shows you how much Hollow Knight is leveling up here. Some people will say that Remake boosted FFXV here, but I'm not sure I buy it - the reason Remake gets a capital R and is such a big deal is because of how middling FF has become in the last two decades. There's a reason that we don't clamor over an Ocarina remake like we do FF: because Zelda has still been good.

Anyway, I want to dig deep on the Remake. I've been thinking about this for a few days. Is Final Fantasy VII Remake the biggest release on this website since... what, Breath of the Wild, if we're being conservative? You can get a lot of different takes here, but I can see there being a case that it's the single biggest release on this website since Super Smash Bros. Brawl.

In a way, new releases don't matter because we're so set in our ways. I don't think FF7 Remake puts it above Ocarina or anything like that. Chances are, fans will find a reason to be bitterly disappointed because just that's how playing with 23 year old feelings works.

We've talked about FF7 Remake for so long that it seems crazy that it actually exists as a livable, playable thing. I can remember FF7 Remake hype on this board as far back as 2004 or 2005, and it probably goes even further back than that. In 2005, the entire contest came down to a 3 month argument over FF7 Advent Children vs. Twilight Princess hype. The PS3 FF7 demo tease came out in 2005 and we've been theorizing about it ever since. It's honestly mythical at this point. It got so crazy that by the 2010s it became comical to even suggest that it might still be happening at e3. And yet, here we are.

I find its timing to be absolutely hilarious. Here we have the biggest game in maybe a decade or more dropping in the middle of a game contest. Its impact is... actually, it honestly doesn't even matter. That's because FF has been such a no-show for a decade that there's literally nothing it can impact. It's crazy. FFXV has a clear path, beating a couple of indie games and then getting butchered by Breath of the Wild. KH3 isn't any good and FF14 is an MMO. It's absolutely crazy that you could drop the ultimate neutralizer on a contest and just, nothing. It's very on brand for the snakebitten Final Fantasy fans on this website. Hope springs eternal with Final Fantasy and it always finds a way to flame out in the best ways and FF7 Remake dropping midcontest to a complete shrug is the most crushing of them all.

Anyway, FFXV wins and I'll be busy playing the all-hallowed Remake that we've waited our entire lives for. I'm not even a big FF7 fan but you better believe that I'll be getting on that train.

transience's prediction: Final Fantasy XV with 60.56%

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Leonhart’s Analysis

As the first round dragged on, I gradually felt less and less confident in Final Fantasy XV in this match. A tripling on What Remains of Edith Finch seemed fine on day 1 of the contest, but that was before about half the field broke 80% in their matches! Now I could make the argument that Edith Finch could be stronger now than it showed in its previous polls because it was free on PS+ a few months ago (that’s how I played it!), but I doubt it mattered all that much. This is still going to be a weak game, no matter how you slice it.

The indies were a mixed bag in round 1, but there’s no denying that Hollow Knight was one of the more impressive ones. Tales of Berseria will be weak in its own right, but Hollow Knight still put up a solid number on it. This is definitely the biggest indie test to date (and might give us an idea of how some of the other round 2 showdowns, such as GTAV/Cuphead, may go) because FFXV is still Final Fantasy. It’s not what it once was, but that name still matters around here. I expect at least one Crew member will jump ship to Hollow Knight here, but as the captain of the FF fanclub on B8, I will gallantly go down with the ship if need be!

Leonhart’s Vote: Final Fantasy XV

Leonhart’s Prediction: Final Fantasy XV with 54.15%

Kleenex’s Analysis

Alright, this one is actually much more interesting. We know Final Fantasy XV is on the weaker end of things. FF14 is currently out here putting up similar numbers on a game that’s undoubtedly stronger than Edith Finch, which has to be one of the weakest games in the bracket (ad nauseam). Hollow Knight did great against Berseria last round, but in the context that I don’t think Berseria is all that good either. Certainly it’s stronger than Edith, but how much? I’m sure Leon will be doing the math, I’m too lazy. I certainly would not begrudge anyone for taking Hollow Knight here, I certainly have considered it, but at the end of the day I still think a middling Final Fantasy game is enough to pull through, and then proceed to get annihilated next round.

Kleenex’s Prediction: Final Fantasy XV with 55%

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Guest’s Analysis –MetalmindStats

I’ve pretty much said my piece on this match elsewhere already, but to recap:

• Hollow Knight impressed tremendously in its Round 1 match; yes Tales of Berseria is weak, but it’s still a well-liked JRPG from a semi-notable series, so I can’t see it being completely awful. In contrast, FFXV’s 74% on What Remains of Edith Finch looks decidedly lackluster now that we’ve seen better results against turbofodder so many times since, even from Yakuza 0 of all games.
• FFXV’s result seems worse still when you consider how easy it was for anyone who doesn’t outright hate it to bracket or just apathy vote for the FF series against a game that they may or may or not have even heard of. It’s going to be much harder to mitigate antivotes that way against a beloved Metroidvania (a consistently strong genre on GameFAQs) that most voters will at least have heard good things about.
• In the closest direct comparison we have, Velvet (of Berseria) was outright stronger than Noctis in 2018. Yes, I know Velvet was inevitably ahead of her game, and Noctis was probably weaker because of the FF name bolstering his game. Even with that in mind, though, I can’t help but question whether FFXV would really best Hollow Knight’s percent last round.
• Last but not least, I’m expecting a close match here, and the option voters want to win more typically winds up winning in a close match. To explain: there’s going to be lots of obligatory FFXV votes here because it’s the only game many will have played here, or because it’s in their bracket. However, how many are truly passionate about voting for a game like FFXV? It’s safe to say Hollow Knight voters will want the win more, whether it’s because they love HK itself, dislike FFXV, or both. It would also be very easy for Hollow Knight’s active fanbase to pull off a Reddit rally against FFXV, both because HK is an indie game up against perhaps the most divisive AAA game of the last decade, and because FFXV is the standard-bearer for the FF Always Wins GameFAQs stereotype.

Prediction: Hollow Knight wins with 51.67%

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Crew Consensus: Our Guest is backing Hollow Knight, but FFXV is the overall favorite.

Thank you guest

Damn guest I need that curse

Augh my precious double points

I am sorry, but it is for the Guest.

So hoping for Rayman Legends to pull this off

The Velvet > Noctis thing is interesting. Do people hate Noctis that much?

Mac Arrowny posted...

The Velvet > Noctis thing is interesting. Do people hate Noctis that much?

Master Hand did face Wario afterwards, so there might have been some SFF, but there was really nothing to adjust Noctis on.

@MetalmindStats great write up! I respect that courage during this contest season.

Round 2 – Monster Hunter: World vs. Sekiro: Shadows Die Twice

Moltar’s Analysis

Monster Hunter: World vs. Sekiro: Shadows Die Twice
Round 1 – 57.95% vs. Bravely Default: Flying Fairy

Sekiro: Shadows Die Twice
Round 1 – 58.57% vs. Ni no Kuni: Wrath of the White Witch

This was a toss-up to me pre-contest and I was hoping the Round 1 results would give me a clearer answer.

‘lol’

I don’t know who I’d side with in a Bravely Default/Ni no Kuni match, and they did pretty much the same on their competition! This really does look to be a 50/50 kind of match.

MonHun seems like the more GameFAQs game between the two, so maybe when it comes down head-to-head, they’ll side with that. That’s why I picked it in my bracket in the first place. Didn’t think I’d still have to use that reasoning to justify this pick.

Moltar’s Bracket: Monster Hunter: World

Moltar’s Prediction: Monster Hunter: World – 51%

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transience’s Analysis

This match is basically Ni no Kuni vs. Bravely Default. I think a lot of people slot Bravely Default as being a little better, but I'm not so sure. BD is an homage to FF5 which isn't exactly our jam. Sure, it'd beat both of these games, but that's because of the Final Fantasy on the title. BD is a portable RPG that wasn't even that well received. The ending in particular is a real hot mess.

Ni no Kuni (you can't even abbreviate that awful name!) isn't anything to write home about either. But it has a nice art style and really stood out during a time when we were higher on jrpgs than we are now. I'm not saying it's stronger, just saying that this match has crew curse written all over it.

As for MH and Sekiro... I've never been super sold on Monster Hunter's popularity here, and I'm not sure that Sekiro is any better than, say, Nioh without the fact that it was made by From. I struggle with this entire fourpack and wish I could just pick against all of them!

transience's prediction: Monster Hunter: World with 51.55%

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Leonhart’s Analysis

This match was considered a tossup pre-contest, and after round 1, it’s still a tossup! Both games put up very similar numbers, so this one basically comes down to who you’d pick to win between Bravely Default and Ni no Kuni. I think most of us would side with Bravely Default because it’s tangentially related to Final Fantasy, but I’m not entirely convinced it’s as simple as that. Ni no Kuni was a console game, and Bravely Default was a handheld game, so I’d give the advantage to the former there, even if the handheld is Nintendo. Ni no Kuni got a remaster in the last couple years, and Bravely Default got some information and a demo about its sequel in a Nintendo Direct recently.

I think you can argue it both ways here. Everything seems to point to Monster Hunter and Sekiro being close in strength, so I’d be surprised if we saw any sort of decisive victory. I’ll stick with Sekiro because it’s what’s in my bracket, but it feels like it could easily go either way.

Leonhart’s Vote: Sekiro: Shadows Die Twice

Leonhart’s Prediction: Sekiro: Shadows Die Twice with 53.63%
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Kleenex’s Analysis

Another tough one! I’m not used to this. Both games got very similar results on their round 1 opponents, so you can probably use that to gauge this match. Who wins between Bravely Default and Ni no Kuni? I think I’d side with Bravely Default in that match, although not convincingly. So I suppose this exercise didn’t really help at all, did it? I do think all the other Soulsborne games looked pretty good last round, even though Sekiro’s finishing percentage was somewhat disappointing against a game I don’t have much respect for. I’m going to side with Monster Hunter, I think, but this really feels like a legitimate coinflip.

Kleenex’s Prediction: Monster Hunter: World with 53.25%

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Guest’s Analysis – TsunamiXXVIII

I spent most of Round 1 underestimating action-adventure games and getting burned for it, both in my bracket and in Oracle. Well no more! I don’t have any bracket interest to hold me back in this match since I literally have Bravely Default > Ni No Kuni here, so let’s look at this clearly. Action-adventure games have been killing it here, and doubly so for FromSoftware’s output. RPGs, perhaps not so much, at least not compared to what they’ve done in previous contests. Also, I said from the beginning that I wanted to bet against Capcom at every opportunity, and one of my biggest regrets of Round 1 was failing to do so in AC:NL-SFV!

That said, we are still JRPGFAQs, so it’s hard to see Monster Hunter: World getting crushed. But unlike the previous GotD where games from the beginning of the decade ruled the roost due to falling into the site’s “nostalgia zone” (we always define it as strictly being the 90s, but honestly the real dividing line might be the start of the Contest Era in 2002), recency seems to be decency here. All in all, it looks like a favorable matchup for Sekiro!

Sekiro: Shadows Die Twice with 54.1%
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Crew Consensus: The Crew is split! Monster Hunter is the slight favorite.

Go go Sekiro

yeah I usually find myself leaning a particular way but with this one I’m not sure at all

MH/Sekiro was a match that I flip flopped a few times on. In the end I went with Sekiro since I had a feeling the Souls franchise was going to make big plays across the board.

And looking at my Oracle picks, I think I feel a little more strongly about Sekiro here. I think Ni no Kuni beats Bravely Default, based solely on the fact that BD is a 3DS game

I think you guys are nuts for unanimously taking FF15 here (Guest doesn't count)

KamikazePotato posted...

I think you guys are nuts for unanimously taking FF15 here (Guest doesn't count)

the more the indies underwhelm in matches we think they should win the less confidence I have in something like Hollow Knight

I don't think any indie game in round 1 beat a game that would beat FFXV

The more indie games underwhelm, the more you should realize how atrocious FF15 tripling Edith Finch is

I'm pretty sure Tales of Berseria could triple Edith Finch

it actually couldn't

unless you're calling for Hollow Knight to win by a similar margin this round as it did last round

being able to defeat FFXV is not a particularly high bar to clear but I still don't think any indie game actually did it

Berseria only needs to double editch finch though.

I need a better result than beating a modern Tales game to convince me it can beat a mainstream FF game. Hollow Knight has gained this momentum here that I don’t get.