Game of the Decade: 2010-2019 Contest Analysis Crew - Part 2

Kotetsu534 posted...

FFIX was a local multiplayer game!

So were a bunch of FFs! I remember playing FFVI multiplayer as a kid.

Oof. Another one where I have two bad upset picks in the same day.

Though I think if the opponents were switched, I'd still stand by Crypt of the Necrodancer! Just having the crossover with Zelda gives it enough name recognition that I think it would beat Journey.

Round 1 – Uncharted 4: A Thief's End vs. Mario Kart 8

Moltar’s Analysis

Fairly important R1 match here, as the winner is also likely to win in Round 2!

Uncharted has never been that strong of a series on this site, and the last time we saw Uncharted 4, it was getting whooped by FF15 and Pokemon Sun/Moon, which isn’t impressive. My guess is that Mario Kart would be closer to, if not stronger than, those games in strength. The problem is that MK8 also hasn’t looked great in its previous showings, but it also keeps getting matched with much stronger Nintendo competition.

It’s rare to see Mario Kart get put up against non-Nintendo competition, and I think it can step up in this case. Mario Kart isn’t a favorite among Nintendo fans, and compared to other series like Zelda and Mario and Smash it’s going to look bad because the series ranks lower in their minds. Yep, that’s the good old Nintendo hierarchy for you. Now that Mario Kart is facing something outside of that, Nintendo fans should be supporting it.

There may be some comparison to DMC5/DKCTF here, but Mario Kart is a much, much stronger franchise than DKC, both on and off GameFAQs.

Moltar’s Bracket: Mario Kart 8

Moltar’s Prediction: Mario Kart 8 – 56%

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transience’s Analysis

This match feels real dangerous. The winner could easily take two rounds if FF14 is a bust, which is very possible. But they could both also bomb pretty hard.

Let's start with what is probably the more predictable entrant. Uncharted has a history of doing OK in these contests. The strongest game in the series is probably Uncharted 2 and it disappointed in 2015, but it didn't straight up bomb. It struggled with Legend of Dragoon and SF4 before going down softly to Halo. Uncharted 4 felt a little long in the tooth by the time it came. It was well received and was a distant third in its GOTY poll to FFXV and Pokemon Sun/Moon, but that's not awful.

Mario Kart 8. This is one of the four Nintendo games that could randomly go on a run and ruin the carefully constructed bottom half of the bracket. Mario Kart has never been too strong here unless we're talking about Mario Kart 64 and maybe Super Mario Kart. It's very Pokemon-ish in that regard. People play the Mario Kart games, they like them, but nobody really loves them. 8's poll results are poor - but they're also terrible matchups for Mario Kart. 2014 saw it lose to Bayonetta 2, but Smash 4 was in the poll. 2015's game contest had it face Mario 64, and honestly, getting 20% on Mario 64 feels like an accomplishment compared to some of the blowouts we've seen in this contest.

There's a real Nintendo fear here, and I get it. Everybody has played MK8. It's sold like 30 million copies or something stupid on Switch, more than Odyssey or BOTW. It's one of the best Mario Karts we've had in a while. Meanwhile, Uncharted 4 is... okay, and if Mario Kart bombs, it'll be there to clean up. This is a bit of an overreaction, but I'm not especially impressed with Last of Us 2's performance today against what should be a weakling in Crusader Kings 2. In fact, you could point to most modern action games -- Arkham City, Assassin's Creed Odyssey, Last of Us 2 -- and draw a broad conclusion that these games just aren't that good. Uncharted 4 feels long in the tooth.

But... I don't trust Mario Kart. I haven't been able to ever since it dropped that 2006 series match to Mega Man, when it had probably the two strongest games. I don't think this site really likes it. It's totally strong enough to win here, especially if Uncharted lays an egg. I think the default apathy vote may push towards Mario Kart, and I wouldn't be super surprised if it blows UC4 out with the way this site is.

But I actually think UC4 is undervalued in its polls, since it's stuck with FFXV. We saw FFXV do much better vs. Sun/Moon when UC4 was taken out of the poll. It's a PS4 exclusive, but we also saw God of War do pretty well as a single player game vs.a big Nintendo franchise. I actually see this match as a weaker version of that FFXV-Sun/Moon matchup, and I think UC4 might have enough to pull it off. Plus, maybe picking it will stop the inevitable crew curse! You can thank me later.

transience's prediction: Uncharted 4 with 52.11%

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Leonhart’s Analysis

This is probably the most important debatable round 1 match because the winner here has a chance to win again next round. My initial gut instinct was Uncharted 4 since it did pretty well in 2016 GOTY, and it’s the best-selling PS4 exclusive game since it was packaged with a lot of bundles. Even my fiancée has played this game! But it’s not like Uncharted 2 was all that strong, and 4 will almost certainly be weaker.

On the other hand, I’m skeptical of the strength of any Mario Kart that isn’t the first two. Mario Kart is always one of the top sellers of any Nintendo system, but I don’t think we ever get really attached to them or nostalgic for them aside from Super Mario Kart or Mario Kart 64. They’re fun to play for a while, but when the next one comes out, we all completely forget about the previous one. Fortunately for Mario Kart 8, it’s still the currently active game in the franchise, so that will help it. I guess I’ll stick with Mario Kart 8 since that’s what’s in my bracket, but I honestly don’t have much confidence in either game here.

Leonhart’s Vote: Uncharted 4

Leonhart’s Prediction: Mario Kart 8 with 56.11%

Kleenex’s Analysis

Remember how I talked a day or two ago about how Uncharted games are actually kinda weak? Here you go. Uncharted 2 - probably the strongest of the four - a game that once lost to Halo - a game that couldn’t even break 60% on THE LEGEND OF DRAGOON - is the strongest of the series. Uncharted 4 was well liked when it came out, but I think by then most people were sort of done with Uncharted, so I have a hard time seeing it look that good here. And by that I mean it’s going to lose to the best Mario Kart game. Now don’t get me wrong, I know Mario Kart games haven’t been that strong in the past, but they almost always get put up against another game higher up in the Nintendo hierarchy. That’s not the case here, and I actually think Mario Kart is going to win this one cleanly.

Kleenex’s Prediction: Mario Kart 8 with 59.50%

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Guest’s Analysis – paulg

Uncharted has a somewhat poor track record in these contests. Uncharted 2 has some victories in the game contests but got doubled by Sonic 2 in 2015 and lost to Halo in 2010. Nathan Drake, the main character of the Uncharted series, has only won once, a three-way where he barely beat a pre-Smash Pac-Man, but has lost as a 2 seed in the first round of 2010, lost to Tails in 2018 and got destroyed by CATS way back in 2008.

But Mario Kart's track record isn't great, either. MKWii only beat Ace Attorney by like 53-47% and got obliviated by Pokémon GSC. The series also lost to Mega Man in a match many thought it could win. Super Mario Kart did look impressive in 2009 though, almost beating Super Metroid on two occasions, but it's the only game (outside of maybe Mario Kart 64) in the series that has looked decent in these contests, and that was the first game in the series way back in the mid-1990s. Recent Mario Kart titles have disappointed.

Mario Kart 8 got 80-20'ed by Super Mario 64, but that was a SFF beatdown (plus SM64 was one of the strongest games in that contest anyway), so MK8 is probably not completely weak.

I originally has MK8 pegged around the 60% mark, but that's probably too high. I still think MK8 wins without too much trouble, but Uncharted 4 does stand a chance of winning.

Prediction: Mario Kart 8 - 54.11%

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Crew Consensus: Mario Kart is the heavy favorite, but transience is siding with Uncharted

I hope transience is right but if he isn't thanks for averting the curse

Master Moltar posted...

The strongest game in the series is probably Uncharted 2 and it disappointed in 2015, but it didn't straight up bomb. It struggled with Legend of Dragoon and SF4 before going down softly to Halo.

also that was GOTD1!

2015 was doubling Walking Dead and then getting doubled by Sonic 2 (which was boosted by the Undertale rally)

whoops!

Mario Kart/Uncharted might be the most consequential match of the first round and I'm still not sure how it'll go. Initially I had Uncharted and felt confident, and then I was essentially forced to change to Mario because that was the overwhelming favourite on the board and historically I've been to biased towards Uncharted and been burned because of it.

I still kind of like Uncharted for this match despite changing to Mario Kart. It's consequential because the winner is going to win again, so it's more than just a one point loss. I also expect this to be the largest B8 and casual discrepancy of the first round. You've got to assume that Uncharted is the overwhelming site favourite both because of seeding and the game.

I have Uncharted here, and it losing to FF14 next round, not because I trust Uncharted, but because I trust a Mario Kart game on the Wii U even less than I do Uncharted. Yes I know it's on the Switch now and has basically taken the place of a dedicated Switch Mario Kart but at it's heart it is a Wii U game.

MK8 is popular. But is it popular here? I don't really think it's going to be. It might be enough to beat Uncharted because that series sucks here but that's it.

I expect the population of people who see MK8 and say "oh but technically it's the Wii U version so I'm not going to count the Switch port" to be roughly 0%

What is the difference between the heart of a Wii U game and the heart of a Switch game?

I wish The Last of Us 2 was in the poll today - unfortunate it keeps getting delayed!

Fate Grand Order has waifus it could get a rally on hentai sites

SuperNiceDog posted...

Fate Grand Order has waifus it could get a rally on hentai sites

I genuinely would like to see someone try this again

lol uncharted

I expected Uncharted to get killed early due to brackets + Nintendo + western game, but this is more than I was expecting. yikes!

ff14 doesn’t seem great here but who knows

yeah I'm thinking MK8 is safe next round too unless there's a drastic shift in percentages after the freeze

I think 14 looks good here! I didn’t expect it to be *that* strong anyway.

This result seems good for FF14 to me. There's only so strong an MMO on this site is going to be and people care a lot more about Necrodancer than the other lower-seeded indies that have popped up.

Unless you mean 'good to win next round', in which case no.

I mean, it's a good win for FFXIV, but Necrodancer isn't beating UC4!

I never expected 14 to win next round anyway

Oh no, MK8 was the favorite for a reason, but I was hoping FFXIV would give us a reason to debate it!

yikes, this is a pretty big bomb for me.

oh well! just one more day of these

actually you know what

Skyrim just jumped 3% and MK8 just dropped 3%

I should get the accuracy point for Journey today as long as Journey doesn't exceed 64.87%, since the only person below me is Kleenex with 53.25%. So I have a ton of room all to myself.

LusterSoldier posted...

I should get the accuracy point for Journey today as long as Journey doesn't exceed 64.87%, since the only person below me is Kleenex with 53.25%. So I have a ton of room all to myself.

that didn't last long

also now Necrodancer needs to be able to get 39.10% on UC4 right now for FFXIV to beat MK8 next round

I think that's good enough for this to be in question now

who knew the board liked gacha so much

gacha game players hate gachas too

As someone who plays way too many gacha, nothing has ever been truer

from my understanding nobody hates gacha more than people that play gacha

Hmmm...MK8 looks like it might not even stay above 60% here.

Not surprised to see Uncharted getting killed. I've learned from years of overrating Naughty Dog games & characters in these contests not to do it any more.

transcience posted...

who knew the board liked gacha so much

There's a channel on the discord just for FGO!

that's good

F/GO players need to be quarantined

fgo more like gtfo

aw yeah a 2 point day

Did my score not get counted because it wasn't submitted on time?

that was probably an oversight

LeonhartFour posted...

that was an oversight

Previous Results: Batman struggles with Xenoblade, but everything else coasted to victory.

Crew Predictions: 51/56

Next Round Thoughts: With Batman doing a little worse than expected and Bioshock doing a little better than expected, some could say Bioshock has a chance here? Last of Us should have no problem with Diablo, as failing to break 70% on VLR definitely is not a good sign for its chances.

Crew Prediction Challenge:

Kleenex: 51
Moltar: 50
transience: 49
Leonhart: 48
Guest: 47

Crew Accuracy Challenge: Kleenex gets the point for Batman, Moltar gets the point for Bioshock, Leon gets the point for Diablo, and Kotetsu gets the point for Last of Us.

Moltar: 17
Kleenex: 11
transience: 10
Guest: 9 (spooky96, Hbthebattle (2), Black Turtle, ctes (2), MetalmindStats, MechanicalWall, Kotetsu)
Leonhart: 6

Augh my precious double points

Round 1 – Pokemon HeartGold / SoulSilver Version vs. Night in the Woods

Moltar’s Analysis

Pokemon G/S sneaking its way into the contest in a flimsy disguise.

Even if there are people upset that this game might not truly belong in a 2010-2020 Game of the Decade contest, the anti-voters + Night in the Woods fans are not going to be enough to outweigh the support for Pokemon here.

Moltar’s Bracket: Pokemon HeartGold / SoulSilver Version

Moltar’s Prediction: Pokemon HeartGold / SoulSilver Version – 79%

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transience’s Analysis

It's the last day of round 1! Here is the last of our four dangerous Nintendo games, and possibly the most dangerous given how unpredictable Pokemon has been over the years. HG/SS is a weird one to get out of all the Pokemon games we could have gotten, to the point that it almost seems intentional by the bracketmaker to limit the collateral Nintendo damage. I'm not accusing anyone, that's just what it seems like when you get games like, well, Night in the Woods.

For those who don't know, Night in the Woods is an adventure game with talking animals that really resonates with a certain kind of person, usually sad or wistful indie kids. I haven't played it but I always hear really good things. It's not going to do well in a contest here, and Nintendo is the best at blowing these kinds of things out. Obviously the remake aspect will do some damage at some point to HG/SS but it isn't going to matter against Night in the Woods. I expect a lot of worried Nier brackets after this one.

transience's prediction: Pokemon HG/SS with 83.78%

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Leonhart’s Analysis

I’ve got my doubts about Pokemon in this contest, but it won’t matter for a couple rounds. It’s got a couple chances to look good, although I don’t know that this first match will tell us much of anything. Night in the Woods is basically an unknown and is probably pretty weak, but there’s no way to know just how weak quite yet (thank goodness we’ve finally reached the last day of round 1 so we can get to matches that we can actually draw stuff from!).

Leonhart’s Vote: Night in the Woods

Leonhart’s Prediction: Pokemon HeartGold/SoulSilver with 72.88%
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Kleenex’s Analysis

The only Pokemon game to make the bracket is a remake, huh? We’ve already seen the original GSC games plenty of times before, and they’re actually pretty strong. Except the time that they lost to Xenogears (bask in it). I don’t really know if the remakes are going to be at the same level or not, but my hunch is that they’ll be a bit weaker. Not that it really matters today, because Night in the Woods isn’t going to provide any kind of significant challenge. Pokemon basically has a bye for two rounds, so we should get a decent gauge on it by the time round 3 rolls around.

Kleenex’s Prediction: Pokemon HeartGold / SoulSilver Version with 72.75%

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Guest’s Analysis – MetalmindStats

A major game in this bracket gets the chance to blow out some turbofodder - when have we ever seen this before? In all seriousness, there might be a little intrigue to this predictable match; depending on the exact margin, it might represent good news or conversely spell trouble for HGSS’s chances against NieR: Automata. To start with, NITW fits broadly in that Edith Finch niche of short games focused on story and characterization over gameplay, which is poison to most GameFAQs voters. Much like Edith Finch, it’s obscure by this site’s standards, lacking the buzz and fanbase of something like Life is Strange. That means there’s really no excuse to be had for HGSS, a game some have talked up as a finals contender, if it falls under the 80% that’s been de rigueur for winners in matches of this caliber so far.

Barring an unexpected collapse, then, the real question is whether HGSS will shoot for the biggest blowout of the contest. In theory, a well-liked Nintendo game from a major series and with a high playrate is in a perfect position to draw an overwhelming proportion of voters in, as we’ve seen with Breath of the Wild, Super Mario Odyssey, and Super Mario Galaxy 2 so far. In practice, however, there’s many voters who simply don’t care about modern Pokemon. Combine that with HGSS not truly being a game of the 2010s, and I’m skeptical about its blowout potential. That being said, HGSS is still a known entity against a game that isn’t whatsoever, and it will have the entire bracket vote here. The only chance NITW had of roping in enough apathy votes to look truly respectable here was to fool voters into thinking it’s a game about cute cartoon animals doing cute things, and *looks at pic* I don’t see that happening.

So there you have it, I know this is yet another predictable stomp that hardly merited half of what I just wrote, but NITW is just too personal a contest entrant, and game in general, for me to be content with only three sentences this time. I never really expected my favorite game of this or any decade to even make the bracket, and it’s so far outside GameFAQs’ wheelhouse that I’m just hoping it won’t come out looking like the weakest entrant we’ve seen. My bracket also has HGSS falling sooner than most to contribute to my prediction here, but really this match is all about NITW for me personally.

Prediction: Pokemon HeartGold / SoulSilver Version wins with 82.70%

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Crew Consensus: Pokemon catches a wild Night in the Woods.

Round 1 – Celeste vs. Rayman Legends

Moltar’s Analysis

A Rayman game being here seems odd but hey let’s go. It did pretty poorly in the 2013 GotY polls, and Rayman doesn’t even make these contests anymore. Dude is forgotten but everyone knows about the rabbids. ugh

Celeste was the strongest indie game on the site in 2018! I mean that’s not saying too much, but give me an indie game that people care about here over a forgotten game.

Isaac/Nioh? Don’t come at me with that. Celeste looks stronger than Isaac already, and Rayman doesn’t have the ‘game right up GameFAQs alley and sequel just came out’ factor here. Point at Ori/Dragon Age instead

Moltar’s Bracket: Celeste

Moltar’s Prediction: Celeste – 57%

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transience’s Analysis

Hey, it's the true game of the decade! Celeste is an amazing game, one that should resonate with a lot of people here for its amazing platforming, killer soundtrack and resonant story. Its poll results aren't great but it's grown steadily through word of mouth and is now one of the bigger indies that we have. I'd probably put it at least at Hollow Knight level, and maybe higher. I think a lot of people have an inflated sense of Hollow Knight because they want to believe that a late Tales game is worth something, so maybe I should avoid the HK comparison for, oh, one more day.

Rayman Legends is an interesting one. It's a well-known franchise, the game is really well regarded in the 2d space... and nobody really played it. It almost feels like an indie game in some ways since its release was so far removed from the core Rayman games. It probably would have done better on an XBLA type of service.

But still, those who played it like it, and Celeste isn't some big franchise name. An apathy vote from a Pokemon voter might go to Rayman over Celeste, and it might surprise as a result. There's a legitimate upset chance here, but if enough people played Celeste, it should do well. Maybe it has enough clout to beat a Pokemon remake? Hahahaha.

transience's prediction: Celeste with 57.33%

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Leonhart’s Analysis

Here’s another chance for an indie game to show off or flop. Celeste is considered by many to be one of the top tier indie games in this contest. It did respectably in GOTY polls a couple years ago. Rayman Legends is well regarded by those who’ve played it, but it’s the definition of a niche platformer. You can’t find a good result from Rayman in any poll ever. I guess I’m a little skittish here after we all picked Binding of Isaac and then Nioh destroyed it, Ulti-style, but I’ll still roll with Celeste!

Leonhart’s Vote: Celeste

Leonhart’s Prediction: Celeste with 61.19%
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Kleenex’s Analysis

Celeste is one of the bigger indie games in the bracket. At the end of the day, I’m not expecting it to be *that* strong, but like...no one cares about Rayman. I know the game is good, but it’s a platformer that doesn’t have Mario in the title, it’s just not something GameFAQs gives a look. Even when it was fresh, it could barely get out of last place in its Game of the Year polls. Celeste should get through just fine today. It won’t be a blowout, but it should be comfortable.

Kleenex’s Prediction: Celeste with 63%

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Guest’s Analysis – Hbthebattle

I hope Celeste can win this, and I think it has a shot. I'd bet on it being stronger than Ori due to a stronger Switch presence. We've seen popular indie games pull the upset here, and I think Celeste is in a position where it can win out over a game with a brand name,just like ori and HK did.

Celeste - 51.23%

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Crew Consensus: Celeste rises to the heavens.

Master Moltar posted...

Its poll results aren't great but it's grown steadily through word of mouth and is now one of the bigger indies that we have.

Has it really? The GotY polls it was in were a year after it came out. I feel like it'd done a lot of its growing already by then.

I firmly believe HK would kill Celeste in a match, too.

I feel like it's more popular now than it was at the end of 2018, as more and more people pick it up and get to know it. the same is true with Hollow Knight - more popular now than in 2018.

Hollow Knight > Celeste but also Hollow Knight >> Rayman

those writeups make me wonder how the Mario/Rabbids game would do here in place of Rayman

adding to that, Rayman > Berseria

play Celeste