Game of the Decade: 2010-2019 Contest Analysis Crew - Part 2

transcience posted...

Xenoblade 2 could have been a real spoiler in the right spot. good thing it was here!

I bet people start to question the fire emblem match

Oh, there are already people calling Xenoblade a lock to win division 4 in the Stats Topic!

it was never a bad pick! the rockstar games are beatable. I wonder about Persona though

Oh, it was never a bad pick. I just think it's an overreaction to jump to call it a lock just based on this!

it’ll fade as the power hour ends, but yeah, more switch power. others talk up xenoblade 1 but i’ve never thought that 2 was that much worse than 1 given that it was a big switch release at a time when we needed those.

Yeah, I think 2 probably isn't that much of a dropoff from 1 at this point. I still like Batman to beat Infinite next round.

it's too bad that Infinite isn't doing better, or is up against a Witness-like opponent, because a big performance vs. a weak game would be enough to start turning heads

transience posted...

whoa, you guys are low on Diablo (much like you were on MGS and who's laughing now!)

hmmm

yeah fair enough (though this will end closer to 70% by the time we're done, I think)

I see this as a solid reminder: even the weakest games in a normal contest can make games in this contest look bad. the strength gap is just immense. I can't wait to get these 64 games out of here and get to the real thing.

I don't think Diablo III will get up much past 68% here. It's already starting to stall out.

but yeah I'm ready for round 2 because I'm ready to finally start making X-Stats and finding out just how crappy some of these games actually are

Previous Results: Rocket League had a pretty exciting back and forth with DBZ for a while, but in the end, Rocket League pulled away and won without too much trouble. Everything else was a 70%+ less exciting bout.

Crew Predictions: 47/52

Next Round Thoughts: Figure that both RL and DBZ are weak, so Dark Souls should roll on next round. Yakuza might have put up a big number on The Witness, but I don't think that helps its chances against actual competition.

Crew Prediction Challenge:

Kleenex: 47
Moltar: 46
transience: 45
Leonhart: 44
Guest: 43

Crew Accuracy Challenge: Moltar gets the point for Dark Souls, Kleenex gets the point for Rocket League and Yakuza, and transience gets the point for MGS.

Moltar: 16
transience: 10
Kleenex: 10
Guest: 8 (spooky96, Hbthebattle (2), Black Turtle, ctes (2), MetalmindStats, MechanicalWall)
Leonhart: 5

augh lagging even further behind

Guest sign-ups for Round 2 topic is up

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/78560237

Round 1 – The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim vs. Subnautica

Moltar’s Analysis

Skyrim should be like a Top 3 non-Nintendo game in this bracket. Subnautica is fodder based off the one poll its been in. We’ve already seen a bunch of 80%+ blowouts, and this will be no different.

Moltar’s Bracket: The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim

Moltar’s Prediction: The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim – 83%

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transience’s Analysis

There's almost nothing to analyze here, but it'll be nice to see Skyrim. Skyrim is anywhere from the #2 game of the decade to #6 or so, and the co-favorite to make the final alongside Witcher 3. Skyrim feels kind of old at this point, largely because Witcher 3 has become the de facto WRPG over the past few years. But Skyrim's also been getting rereleases on everything, including a really well regarded Switch port. (Witcher 3 also has that.) It'll be good to get a measurement here.

Of course, unless Skyrim goes below 80% or above 90%, there's not much to see here. Subnautica should be pretty weak as it isn't a genre that we typically go for, and also just isn't super well known. Skyrim probably goes high here and the question is just how high.

transience's prediction: Skyrim with 85.56%

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Leonhart’s Analysis

Skyrim is the strongest game we’ve actually seen in a contest match by a decent margin. SBAllen is clearly trying to set up a Breath of the Wild/Skyrim showdown. Most of us feel pretty confident that Zelda will be there, but I’ve seen a lot of skepticism about Skyrim. A lot of people seem to think its popularity is finally starting to wane after nearly a decade of being the biggest western game out there, but I don’t know that I buy some of the arguments. We’ll get into that more when it actually matters since even if Skyrim has dropped, it won’t have any problems dominating this one.

Is Subnautica our new “maybe the weakest game in the contest?” Well, after seeing The Witness nearly get quadrupled by Yakuza 0, I feel like that argument has been settled! But even so, I don’t think Subnautica will be that close to the bottom. It’s only been in one poll, the 2018 PC GOTY poll, where it edged out Dead Cells for second place and did respectably on Monster Hunter: World. Make no mistake. It’ll be weak, but I don’t think it’ll be bottom ten weak. Still, Skyrim is probably top 5 at worst in this contest, so I feel like this should be a quadrupling at worst.

Leonhart’s Vote: Skyrim

Leonhart’s Prediction: Skyrim with 84.44%

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Kleenex’s Analysis

I’ve been familiar with pretty much every single game in this bracket. Every game except Subnautica. I know the name, I’ve definitely heard people mention it prior to the bracket being released, but I really have no idea what kind of game it actually is. I suppose I could look it up for the purposes of this writeup, but let’s be realistic - it doesn’t matter. It actually did kind of well in the 2018 PC GotY poll, actually edging out Dead Cells, which kind of shocks me! I have no idea what happened there. Is Subnautica secretly really popular?

Skyrim, on the other hand, is legit. We saw it in 2015 where it did quite well. It’s easily one of, if not the most, prolific and widely talked about games of the last decade. Helped, in no small part, by the fact that they re-release it every year. Everyone owns at least two copies of Skyrim right now. That’s a fact. It’s the favorite to make the finals from the bottom half of the bracket and for good reason. It’s still #2 on the top 10 games right now. This game came out 9 years ago. Skyrim should stomp today.

Kleenex’s Prediction: The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim with 83.75%

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Guest’s Analysis – Sir Chris

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Crew Consensus: Subnautica sinks

I'm pulling for Skyrim due to bracket choices, but I really regret not taking Witcher 3 there.

My skyrin write up will be in the morning! I always forget you do first match super early

"But even so, I don’t think Subnautica will be that close to the bottom."

I'm gonna take that as a pun!

I wouldn't

Chris' late guest write up

Skyrim is my pick for game of the decade. For more information, please see the review I wrote after playing it for a week straight on launch week here on GameFAQs! On the other hand, I have in passing heard of its opponent which is one of my tests for if I am going to go crazy with the prediction percentage.

I don't think Skyrim is the type of game that's going to obliterate an indie game, I also know a lot of people are going to compare this to Witcher's performance but let's face it it is shocking to me that anyone who played Witcher III would have voted for AC:O whereas Skyrim and Subnautica are slightly different genres.

Skyrim was impressive in 2015 and it held up, but on its path the large blowout it had was 66% over Phoenix Wright, so we have no blue hell what it does versus what should be fodder, we just know that it can get the job done versus beloved classics like Metroid Prime, which is a good start!

Chris Prediction Skyrim - 81.6%

Not sure if Skyrim will beat Dark Souls. It will be a battle between two game design philosophy, one centered on roleplaying and storytelling and the other centered on tight gameplay and patterns. The GOTD will probably be one of these two.

direshall posted...

Not sure if Skyrim will beat Dark Souls. It will be a battle between two game design philosophy, one centered on roleplaying and storytelling and the other centered on tight gameplay and patterns. The GOTD will probably be one of these two.

User since May 2019

Does someone want to tell him?

I was going to say there's a Zelda in the way.

direshall posted...

Not sure if Skyrim will beat Dark Souls. It will be a battle between two game design philosophy, one centered on roleplaying and storytelling and the other centered on tight gameplay and patterns. The GOTD will probably be one of these two.

The GOTD will be determined according to the LAW, unless anarchic revolutionaries overwhelm us.

Maybe if your definition of "win" is "get over 40% against Breath of the Wild"

direshall posted...

Not sure if Skyrim will beat Dark Souls. It will be a battle between two game design philosophy, one centered on roleplaying and storytelling and the other centered on tight gameplay and patterns. The GOTD will probably be one of these two.

Read this if you don't know what we're talking about:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/78438768/935650130

Round 1 – Fate / Grand Order vs. Journey

Moltar’s Analysis

Gacha vs Turbofodder, we’ve hit rock bottom here.

Journey’s only previous contest result is it getting 15% against FF7. Granted, it’s easy for a game to look bad against one of the strongest games on the website, but that’s still really bad.

Fate GO tho...We talk about how PC games are weak or indie games are weak. Mobile games? These are the weakest of the bunch. GameFAQs has less than zero interest in them as a whole. Now we’re talking about a relatively obscure gacha mobile game? Journey would have to try to be able to lose to that.

Fate has some diehard supports so I don’t think it gets blown-out here, but Journey’s definitely going to get the fair share of apathy votes.

Moltar’s Bracket: Journey

Moltar’s Prediction: Journey – 65%

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transience’s Analysis

I know a decent amount about a lot of video games. I I don't play a ton of new games anymore because of family life but I do my best to keep up with what's coming out and what's going on in the gaming world. It's just something I've done as a habit for decades. When the bracket came out, I opened it up and instantly knew what 127 of the 128 games were.

Fate/Grand Order is the 128th game. I'm not even going to wikipedia it here! Why is this an 8 seed? I have zero respect for this game. I've heard it's some kind of gacha game? It's up against possibly the 2012 GOTY, which sounds impressive except that 2012 just didn't have any super notable games come out. Journey is an indie game but it's a big one, to the point where I'm not even sure if you should count it. It's like counting Ori as an indie game. It's got that feel to it that at least seems indie though.

Journey is going to kill this game. I don't know if 'kill' means an easy doubling or if it goes for the jugular, but it's not going to be close. Journey is more of a walking simulator, but it's one that was hugely popular and its atmosphere really draws you in. It's more our kind of game than some of these other metroidvanias or farming simulators that have been doing well. It should clean up here.

transience's prediction: Journey with 75.01%

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Leonhart’s Analysis

This might be the overall weakest matchup in the contest. Fate/Grand Order is a mobile gacha game, a combination of the two things this site probably hates the most. Journey was the original walking simulator, which isn’t a genre we’re big on, as we saw earlier with Edith Finch getting tripled by Final Fantasy XV. Speaking of FF, Journey was in the 2015 Games Contest and got about 16% on Final Fantasy VII, which actually makes it look pretty decent in this contest where we’ve seen a bunch of lesser games than FFVII go for 80%+ so far! But regardless of whether it’s out of respect for Journey for inventing a new genre of game or our hatred for F/GO’s genre (probably the latter), I think Journey probably wins this one fairly easily.

Leonhart’s Vote: Journey

Leonhart’s Prediction: Journey with 75.67%
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Kleenex’s Analysis

Who got mobile games in my bracket? Who is responsible for this abomination? How did it get an 8 seed? These are mysteries that may never be answered, and FGO is a complete enigma. It has no polls. There’s absolutely nothing to go on in regards to how strong this came will or won’t be. It is the #1 mobile iOS game boards (but completely absent from the Android ones for some reason), so that might be something to take into consideration in a scenario where we have very little to go on. We do know that Journey isn’t very strong. It got smashed by FF7 in its only contest match. I just...I have no idea. I know FGO is actually extremely big in the gacha world, I just don’t know if that translates to GameFAQs very well. So uh...I dunno. I don’t think we like mobile games very much, so go Journey I suppose.

Kleenex’s Prediction: Journey???? with 53.25%

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Guest’s Analysis – Luster Soldier

This match may go down as perhaps the weakest overall round 1 match. Journey wasn't worth much in 2015, allowing FFVII to put up 84% on it. But Journey's opponent should be even weaker still, as Fate / Grand Order holds the dubious honor of being the only mobile game to make the bracket. Mobile games are weak on this site, in spite of the fact that slightly over 88% of the site owns either an iPhone or Android phone, which blows away the ownership of any other current or past system. A good portion of the site is capable of playing mobile games, but some people just avoid them like the plague.

I really don't know how to approach the task of even predicting a percentage for this one. Fate / Grand Order could hilariously end up being the weakest game in the bracket due to a combination of being a mobile game and probably even poor playrate. Any apathy votes likely goes towards Journey, mixed in with some "mobile game" anti-votes thrown in for good measure.

Luster Soldier's Bracket: Journey

Luster Soldier's Prediction: Journey - 64.75%
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Crew Consensus: Fate is not fated to win this match.

Gacha.

You mean that type of game some countries are trying to outlaw because it teaches gambling to children.

Why is it even in the bracket?

Darn, I was hoping to be the only one to go that high.

FGO gonna keep rerolling until it wins this match

The Mana Sword posted...

FGO gonna keep rerolling until it wins this match

This first round is never gonna end

So either a walking simulator or a gacha game will win a match huh.

I picked FGO thinking about what people who haven't played either of the games are going to vote for. I would think that if people knew it was a gacha game, they'd vote against it in principle, but if they don't know what it is, they may vote for it if they think it has a better art style or cooler name or something.

I’d rather be higher than lower here I think

There were a loy of ads for FGO in this site not too long ago.

So while I didn't know it was gacha, it was pretty obvious it was a mobile game.

I don't think FGO is that obscure on Gamefaqs? It seems to have quite an active board and I keep seeing their topics on the front page. Of course that doesn't make the players automatically vote for it

Yeah, FGO is actually a pretty big fucking deal, but I just don't think it's a GameFAQs big fucking deal. We'll see.

I mean Dota and Fortnite are big deals too!

I never heard people actively shitting on FGO so I assume it is less hated than Dota and Fortnite. Likely won't win but it's hard to imagine getting tripled by Journey of all things

It was hard to imagine Yakuza tripling anything, too!

I never played elder scrolls but I am oddly invested in Skyrim's performance.

I guess I just really want to see the "game of the decade on any other site" get at least runner up here, and maybe even expose Zelda after it eats up Nintendo.

witcher could maybe try for that but I wouldn’t expect Skyrim to beat BotW on most other places.

BotW won the vast majority of Game of the Decade awards across the internet.

Yeah for once we aren't the oddball here!

Round 1 – Final Fantasy XIV Online: A Realm Reborn vs. Crypt of the NecroDancer

Moltar’s Analysis

MMORPG vs indie game now, this division sure is delivering something.

Of all the MMORPGs, FF14 is bound to be one of the stronger ones on this website because of the first two words in its title. This is another one of those name value matches, as Crypt just doesn’t have the name recognition to win this match on GameFAQs.

Moltar’s Bracket: Final Fantasy XIV Online: A Realm Reborn

Moltar’s Prediction: Final Fantasy XIV Online: A Realm Reborn – 70%

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transience’s Analysis

Final Fantasy XIV might be the biggest puzzle of this bracket. How popular is it? It feels like a paradox. It's the most popular FF game of the decade, but it's an MMO which probably half of our audience will never bat an eye at? It's got Final Fantasy on the cover, which our audience is conditioned to vote for blindly. It's been a literal generation, but I remember when the original Final Fantasy got 40% on SMB3 despite the fact that most people don't even play it. That's the kind of brand loyalty that the Final Fantasy name has drawn in the past.

This match isn't in doubt because Crypt of the Necrodancer, as awesome as it is, isn't going to compete. For those who don't know, it's a rhythm roguelike with some killer beats. I think of it as being about on par with Binding of Isaac, except slightly less popular and oh yeah it's kind of a Nintendo game now. Nintendo fans have kinda co-opted Necrodancer as one of their own since the core of the game was reused recently for Cadence of Hyrule. Both Necrodancer and Cadence of Hyrule have never been in a legitimate poll here which probably tells you all you need to know, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Necrodancer do moderately okay here.

Of course, there's honestly no way to tell if the result here is due Crypt's strength, influence from Cadence of Hyrule, the Final Fantasy name or an MMO's weakness. This one feels kind of like a dice roll except where lots of results are possible so long as FF14 wins. I can't wait to see 14 in round 2 because I want to know if the FF name trumps all and gets people to buy in. It's a well loved game even outside of the traditional Final Fantasy circles, but we're not exactly traditional at this point!

transience's prediction: Final Fantasy XIV with 68.99%

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Leonhart’s Analysis

Final Fantasy XIV is a very cool rags to riches story, which is strange to say about one of the biggest series on this site, but it’s true. The original FFXIV launch was such an utter disaster that Square literally blew it up and rebuilt it from scratch. The ensuing “Realm Reborn” has become probably the most beloved game in the series since Final Fantasy X. Of course, it’s also an MMO, and we tend not to like those, so there’s only so strong it’ll be here. Still, that won’t be an issue this round.

I have no idea what to expect from Crypt of the Necrodancer because it’s one of only two games in the entire contest (the other being Fate/Grand Order) that has never been in a single poll here. It seems to have some pretty dedicated fans, but rhythm games and roguelike games aren’t our jam. I am bad at guessing these percentages anyway, so whatever.

Leonhart’s Vote: Final Fantasy XIV

Leonhart’s Prediction: Final Fantasy XIV with 73.14%
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Kleenex’s Analysis

3 of my top 5 games of the decade are all in this division of the bracket and I hate it. Final Fantasy XIV is The Best Final Fantasy Game in 20 Years™, as I have said many times before. Obviously it’s not for everyone, it’s still and MMO, but I love that game to death. Shadowbringers coming out last year really seemed to boost its popularity, and a lot more people are on the FF14 train than ever before. I think if this match happened two years ago, the result would actually be a lot more in question. The Final Fantasy name isn’t everything anymore, but luckily I think the game is popular enough that it shouldn’t have too much of an issue, even if I don’t think it’ll end up being that strong in the long run.

Also did you know that Necrodancer has never been in a poll before? Shocking.

Kleenex’s Prediction: Final Fantasy XIV: A Realm Reborn with 64%

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Guest’s Analysis – Snipedog117

Time to talk about the only Final Fantasy I have never played! I’ve gone back and forth over the years to give FFXIV a try, but ended up speedrunning instead and forgot about playing it. Game has really good music though. Anyway, FFXIV is a numbered FF, but it is also an MMO and those do not do well here.

This game’s rise to fame was really nice to see unfold, I remember not even knowing it was coming out, and randomly seeing it on Wikipedia one day. Then I saw it was an MMO. And then I saw how poorly received it was. I remember reading some article on rebooting MMORPGs and it was like “this probably won’t work” and watching some FFVII parody that made a joke about its reboot and how it is going to be a waste of time/resources. Then ARR comes out apparently it is super good.(and kept the subscription fee, that always surprised me) And the expansions keep coming out and people like those too! They even did a one with a bunch of FFT/FFXII themed areas and it was written by Mutsuno himself! I always hear people say it is the best MMO on the market right now and kind of wish MMOs were better on GameFAQs so it would go a little further. Maybe I’ll even play it if it beats Uncharted 4/MK8!

But that is it’s next round. This round it faces Crypt of the NecroDancer. I’ve actually played this, being one of the few roguelike games AND one of the few rhythm games that I played and liked. Really happy that it got in the contest, even if it is one of the weaker indies to make the bracket. We’ve seen roguelikes do poorly so far, and I don’t think I recall rhythm games being in these contests (I guess Rock Band was back in the day?) This game seems very not-GameFAQs, way more than MMOs are. I couldn’t even find a poll for it! It did a Switch port recently though, and a sequel on said console. I wonder if Cadence of Hyrule is stronger on its branding alone?

So yeah, this is the second to last indie game that is going to be blown out in round 1 where we ask the question of how high its opponent can go. And I think FFXIV is going to go pretty high.

Final Fantasy XIV: A Realm Reborn- 75.15%

Crypt of the NecroDancer- 24.85%
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Crew Consensus: Final Fantasy takes its competition offline.

What proof do we have that this site is against MMOs specifically? The only one that has ever been in a contest is World of Warcraft which gets anti-voted for being so popular. Past that, MMOs from before weren't very accessible and this site doesn't care about old PC games anyway, and MMOs from after have largely failed to gain traction due in part to competition from WoW. FFXIV doesn't have any of those problems.

Not that I picked FFXIV to do much this contest. Just a little confused.

Previous polls of the day indicate that half the site has never played an MMO, period, and another 25% isn't actively playing one right now.

LinkMarioSamus posted...

What proof do we have that this site is against MMOs specifically? The only one that has ever been in a contest is World of Warcraft which gets anti-voted for being so popular. Past that, MMOs from before weren't very accessible and this site doesn't care about old PC games anyway, and MMOs from after have largely failed to gain traction due in part to competition from WoW. FFXIV doesn't have any of those problems.

Not that I picked FFXIV to do much this contest. Just a little confused.

For me, it is that (non-Smash) multiplayer games do really bad. There was also this favorite FF poll and the MMOs did not do very good, that is mostly because they like the other games more, so who knows.

Off the top of my head, I cannot think of the what the strongest non-Smash multiplayer game is, one of the Street Fighters? Like SF2?

Sniperdog117 posted...

Off the top of my head, I cannot think of the what the strongest non-Smash multiplayer game is, one of the Street Fighters? Like SF2?

Mario Kart 64

FFIX was a local multiplayer game!

LeonhartFour posted...

Mario Kart 64

Ohhhhh right. For some reason I always forget MK is multiplayer since I only do time trials.

The strongest non-Smash multiplayer game is Super Mario World.