Game of the Decade: 2010-2019 Contest Analysis Crew - Part 2

Hey everyone! The Contest Analysis Crew is back at it again, and this time, we’re going to write a lot of words about the second Game of the Decade Contest.

If you’re new here, the Contest Analysis Crew has been running strong since 2004. It’s a group of (self-proclaimed) contest experts that take a deep look at all of the matches in the Contest. We make predictions on who we think will win and how much percentage they’ll receive. It’s a lot of fun and I hope you enjoy the ride!

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*~CREW STRANDING~*

Moltar: I can’t believe I still haven’t reached Square Knot City yet…

…

Moltar: Feels like I’ve been traveling for a week now with no end in sight...

…

Moltar: Can’t believe I have to walk all the way here why couldn’t they give me a vehicle or something.

…

Moltar: People actually played a game like this?!?

*~CREW STRANDING~*

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Current Guest List: Send write-ups to mastermoltar@gmail.com

Xenoblade Chronicles vs. Splatoon 2 - Luster Soldier
Overwatch vs. Death Stranding - MechanicalWall
Dragon Age: Inquisition vs. Ori and the Blind Forest - Kotetsu534
Fire Emblem: Three Houses vs. South Park: The Stick of Truth – Sir Chris

The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt vs. Assassin's Creed Odyssey - ctes
Mass Effect 3 vs. Starcraft II: Wings of Liberty - TsunamiXXVIII
Stardew Valley vs. Destiny - Nintendogs
Super Mario Galaxy 2 vs. Return of the Obra Dinn - SuperNiceDog
Fallout: New Vegas vs. The Stanley Parable - MetalmindStats
Dark Souls III vs. Dishonored - spooky96
The Binding of Isaac: Rebirth vs. Nioh - Kotetsu534
God of War vs. The Talos Principle - Luster Soldier

Persona 5 vs. Heavy Rain - Sir Chris
Assassin's Creed IV: Black Flag vs. Sid Meier's Civilization V - paulg
Sonic Mania vs. Ys VIII: Lacrimosa of DANA - Sniperdog117
Super Meat Boy vs. Slay the Spire - BT
Portal 2 vs. Tomb Raider - MechanicalWall
Kingdom Hearts III vs. Disco Elysium - pjbasis
Animal Crossing: New Leaf vs. Street Fighter V - ZeldaTPLink
Red Dead Redemption 2 vs. Dying Light - Hbthebattle

Tag.

Round 1 – Dragon Age: Inquisition vs Ori and the Blind Forest

Moltar’s Analysis

Dragon Age hasn’t really had a chance to shine in contests before, which makes sense because it’s a decent, but not strong series. It goes up against strong Nintendo games and doesn’t get blown out, but doesn’t really compete with them either.

Ori is not a strong Nintendo game, and Inquisition (runner up in the 2014 GotY poll) shouldn’t have any trouble winning this match.

Moltar’s Bracket: Dragon Age: Inquisition

Moltar’s Prediction: Dragon Age: Inquisition – 64%

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transience’s Analysis

Ori and the Blind Forest is a legitimate game of the decade contender. That game is platforming magic and just about everyone who plays it would agree. It feels so good to traverse that world and the aesthetics are next level. It's basically a "triple i" game, an indie game that has so much polish and craft to it that it feels like a big budget game.

In recent months, Ori has become a legitimate exclusive, something that Microsoft really backs. An Ori reveal is e3-worthy and the most recent Ori game, which shipped last month, hit at the perfect time, right when COVID was spiking and people were looking for a good game. Ori gets billed as an indie game but it's also super emotional with a strong minimalist narrative that should appeal to fans everywhere. Everyone on this website should play Ori. It's a goddamn phenomenal game.

Oh, and it's going to lose.

transience's prediction: Dragon Age: Inquisition with 61.33%

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Leonhart’s Analysis

Here’s another interesting indie game test. Dragon Age has always been a step or two below Mass Effect here in terms of contest strength, but Inquisition finished third in the 2014 GOTY poll behind Link Between Worlds and The Last of Us. I feel like there’s a decent chance Inquisition has dropped off since then because of the negative backlash toward BioWare in the years since then, but Dragon Age isn’t a totally dead series the way Mass Effect is now.

On the other hand, Ori is riding high from the recent sequel, The Will of the Wisps, so we’ve got two games that are trending in the opposite directions. Will that be enough to give Ori the win? I’m not so sure. I still think the gap between something like Inquisition and something like Tales or Walking Dead is pretty big. I think Dragon Age will be closer to Fallout in that regard, but I also think Ori will be several steps above something like VVVVVV. Regardless, I think there’s enough of a gap there for Dragon Age to still manage to win somewhat comfortably.

Leonhart’s Vote: Ori and the Blind Forest

Leonhart’s Prediction: Dragon Age: Inquisition with 58.76%
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Kleenex’s Analysis

By typical GameFAQs standards, this match should be a slam dunk for Dragon Age. Big meaty RPG vs. indie platformer? No contest, right?

And yet, as I begin this writeup, I’m feeling sort of uneasy about the result of this one. Indie games have been showing up so far, and I still think Mass Effect 2’s performance was pretty disappointing. Bioware is kinda in the dumpster, but I’m not totally sure if that extends to Dragon Age or it’s isolated to Mass Effect at the moment. The original Dragon Age has been in a few contest matches and it looked decidedly mediocre, but I think Inquisition is probably more popular. Ori didn’t look all that fearsome in the 2015 game of the year polls, but it has a ton of critical acclaim behind it and a high profile sequel that just came out a few weeks ago.

Logically I think Dragon Age is still the right pick, and I’m going to stick with that rather than just making upset picks for the sake of upset picks, but this match it throwing up all sorts of red flags in my brain, so I’m not going to be very surprised if Ori knocks off Inquisition tomorrow.

Kleenex’s Prediction: Dragon Age: Inquisition with 52.50%

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Guest’s Analysis - Kotetsu534

So we have a big budget RPG from Bioware that managed to semi-fraudulently sell itself as the 2nd strongest game of 2014 in that year's GOTYs (GTA V never got into the final poll!) going up
against the little indie that could from 2015, Ori and the Blind Forest. Does it have some upset potential?

Let's see, Dragon Age was a fairly big deal in the first half of the last decade, and Origins managed to get 32% and 35% against strong Nintendo opposition in 2010 and 2015, but if Mass Effect's tailed off since then I'd bet Bioware's lesser lights have too, and Inquisition was probably always a step behind the original. It's probably pretty weak these days.

However, pretty weak is probably more than poor Ori can manage! It's a great serene metroidvania, but it started off its polling career by coming last against Cities: Skylines, before improving to something a bit more respectable in the 2015 GOTYs. Since then its reputation has trended upward and it got a recently released sequel that will probably give it a bit of a boost. However, it's still a featherweight punching a lightweight - it might well embarrass its bigger opponent, but end up out for the count.

Dragon Age: Inquisition with 59.11%

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Crew Consensus: Dragon Age burns down Ori’s forest.

lets go curse I need this one

Whoops I got my GOTYs mixed up lawl

thank you for the curse it's the only hope we have

I don't know guys DA:O might have done respectably at the time but it would probably do a lot worse now against the same Nintendo entrant.

Ori just went on sale for $5 on Steam. just sayin'

Alright, fine, I'll buy it.

Really wish you guys cursed overwatch instead

Master Moltar posted...

So we have a big budget RPG from Bioware that managed to semi-fraudulently sell itself as the 2nd strongest game of 2014 in that year's GOTYs (GTA V never got into the final poll!) going up

GTAV was a 2013 game.

I had no clue what to do percentage-wise for this last match, so I'm curious to see what everyone else came up with.

If GTA5 doesnt clear 80% it's a bomb. Name one game in this bracket that loses to Baba Is You.

Sticking to my guns from last topic btw

Would not be surprised if GTA5 loses next round

so 79%+ is a bomb but 80.01% wouldn't have been?

LeonhartFour posted...

so 79%+ is a bomb but 80.01% wouldn't have been?

Of course, that's just math.

GTA looks fine here, I think.

I could write up a huge post on this eightpack, honestly. you could look at it 15 different ways. it's super fascinating to try to judge them as a whole.

LeonhartFour posted...

so 79%+ is a bomb but 80.01% wouldn't have been?

Yes obviously. Get with the program dude

Yeah, this feels like Geralt's division from 2018, where you could make a legit argument for 4-5 characters, even after round 1. I'm honestly glad that a clear favorite didn't emerge from today's matches. Just makes the future rounds more fun!

KamikazePotato posted...

Yes obviously. Get with the program dude

just making sure we're on the same page...!

GTAV/Cuphead board vote should be pretty hilarious next round either way

Cuphead will be winning with 57% at the freeze no matter what the final result is

I honestly wouldn't be surprised if it was higher than that.

Actually, the P4/RDR board vote will probably be much the same!

Although Persona's percentage has actually increased from its percentage at the freeze, which honestly kind of surprises me.

Round 1 – Fire Emblem: Three Houses vs. South Park: The Stick of Truth

Moltar’s Analysis

Well, FE: Awakening didn’t light the world on fire, but we already had an idea about how strong it would be.

But Three Houses is the new hotness, and it got 47% on RE2 which looked strong in its match earlier, so it’ll do much better than Awakening, right?

Right?

…

...RIGHT?

(I have it going far so it better)

Moltar’s Bracket: Fire Emblem: Three Houses

Moltar’s Prediction: Fire Emblem: Three Houses – 73%

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transience’s Analysis

South Park: The Stick of Truth. I'm still not convinced that anybody actually played this. I spend a lot of time online and I don't think I've ever really seen anyone talk about this game. It's South Park and it's an RPG so it's probably not awful? Its poll results aren't awful, about equal to Bravely Default and Bayonetta 2.

Three Houses seems like the strongest FE game by a good bit at this point. It probably helped that it was on Switch, where console players can put it on the tv. It really stood out as a major game for a few months there and did a nice job hanging with RE2 in the GOTY polls. It's going to win this. Awakening didn't do great when paired against Deus Ex: HR, and I'd wager that game is probably about equal to South Park. Three Houses is a little stronger so I'll go for about a doubling. It'll be fun to compare this performance to Xenoblade's.

transience's prediction: Fire Emblem: Three Houses with 65.45%

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Leonhart’s Analysis

Three Houses was the biggest Switch game last year, which means something here. Awakening was the game that brought Fire Emblem into the mainstream, but Three Houses took it to the next level. Heck, even I played it! I think pretty highly of its chances to contend for and even win the division. I don’t know what to expect from it in round 1 though. I feel like Stick of Truth is a bit underseeded and maybe could’ve even won a match with better placement, so I wouldn’t be surprised if Three Houses doesn’t go as high as the other contenders in the division. Kinda like Mass Effect 2 in Division 2, it might look bad relative to the competition because it didn’t get an opponent that really let it flex its muscles like the other big games here did.

Leonhart’s Vote: Fire Emblem: Three Houses

Leonhart’s Prediction: Fire Emblem: Three Houses with 65.67%
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Kleenex’s Analysis

Three Houses is a pretty fun wildcard, especially in this division. That game was kinda everywhere over the summer - people seemed to enjoy it quite a lot, and I think it’s safe to say it's been the most prolific Fire Emblem game to date. I’m still a little shaky on how strong Fire Emblem (the series) actually is around here, but there’s a good chance that Three Houses leveled up its popularity. It absolutely has a shot to take down the weak division it's been dealt, and I’m very interested to see how it fares in its first few rounds. I have a pretty strong aversion to all things South Park related, so I’m likely underestimating Stick of Truth due to bias, but I’m pretty sure that game is junk-tier. Maybe the South Park name props it up, but despite being an RPG it doesn’t strike me as a very GameFAQs game. Fire Emblem could look real good here and we’ve seen a lot of unexpected blowouts so far - this could be another.

Kleenex’s Prediction: Fire Emblem: Three Houses with 71.50%

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Guest’s Analysis – Sir Chris

Fire Emblem: Three Houses is a game I first played in 2020 but I loved every second of the first two routes for the game that I have done. South Park: Stick of Truth remains one of the games I always wanted to get around to but never had the chance even though it is constantly on sale.

Did you know this juggernaut beat Dark Souls II for PC game of the year? Oh yes, it is true. And All Fire Emblem: Three Houses did was score 47% on RE2! Hah!

...

...

...

Okay so it is kind of hard to gauge what we are dealing with here, but I am going to go out on a limb and say TH and Awakening are going to be somewhat comparable and I would except South Park to be a whole hell of a lot weaker than Deus Ex on this site given the series has a strong history of at least getting into stuff even if it is to just get ragdolled!

Also RPG SFF gogogo

Fire Emblem: Three Houses - 73.5%
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Crew Consensus: South Park gets canceled.

Gah I got hedged in by Leon and tranny. I thought I would be going lower than you guys!

I think I'm okay with the low pick here?

the more I think about it, the more worried I am about Death Stranding just bulldozing Overwatch.

transience posted...

the more I think about it, the more worried I am about Death Stranding just bulldozing Overwatch.

for what it's worth I've been wrong about literally every debatable match so far...!

yeah I think Overwatch has this

LeonhartFour posted...

yeah I think Overwatch has this

I hope so

well Death Stranding is lowering the percentage...!

Ori and the blind motherfucking forest

I fucking knew it

ARGH I’m so mad I didn’t take the upset

I'm still not sure Ori holds on. Indie games tend to tank after the first hour or so.

I thought you guys were being really optimistic with those Xenoblade percents and I'm glad to be proven wrong.

I do think there's a chance there's some Nintendo overperformance here from Xenoblade, but it's definitely a strong showing.

South Park vs. Splatoon who ya got

Glad I went high on Overwatch v Death Stranding

Not glad I picked DA without a second thought in my bracket. That was probably a match worth thinking about a little harder

I thought about Dragon Age/Ori, and while I briefly entertained the idea of Ori winning I never thought it would win commandingly.

it might actually do it. that’s crazy.

Mass Effect is very screwed.

at this rate Ori might be too far ahead after an hour to matter if it starts bleeding percentage

Another 3/4 day. IDK why I chose Splatoon 2 lol

Wildspark posted...

Another 3/4 day. IDK why I chose Splatoon 2 lol

I don't know why you did either.

Xenoblade with a nice performance, I think? I have zero read on if that is a SFF match or what.

DoomTheGyarados posted...

I don't know why you did either.

I looked at my bracket again and it turns out I did choose Xenoblade. I guess I just thought really hard about choosing Splatoon. 4/4 baby!

transience posted...

Xenoblade with a nice performance, I think? I have zero read on if that is a SFF match or what.

Well, MGS1 quadrupled Splatoon 1 in 2015. So I'd guess either Splatoon 2 is just way weaker (which I kinda doubt since it's on Switch as opposed to Wii U) or there's some SFF going on.

I would say that Splatoon 2 is definitely weaker than 1. like, without question.

I guess. Is it still a Wii U exclusive game?

also first Dragon Age cut

it is, but Splatoon was a huge deal on Wii U when the market was a vacuum. Splatoon 2 barely moved the needle because there were lots of great games on Switch.

I dunno. I haven't played either game! I'm pretty sure Splatoon 2 doubled the original in sales, but that's the benefit of being on Switch.

yeah, it did. but you know how some Gamecube games stood out because you basically played what was available? that's Splatoon. Mario Maker 1 is bigger than 2 for the same reason.