Game of the Decade: 2010-2019 Contest Analysis Crew - Part 1

3/4 here.

Missed DKC but I got Octopath! (so far).

But yeah go my Mario

Janus5k posted...

pull my Crew Curse trigger

Yessss

Right now, Tekken needs to get at least 59% on MK11 for Smash to beat Odyssey

I mean, assuming SFF doesn't exist and huge blowouts are perfectly transitive (neither is very likely).

ZeldaTPLink posted...

Right now, Tekken needs to get at least 59% on MK11 for Smash to beat Odyssey

I mean, assuming SFF doesn't exist and huge blowouts are perfectly transitive (neither is very likely).

Ultimate was like half a percent lower at this time than what Odyssey is at now

it's probably going to drop a lot

it'll come down a little, but I think Odyssey has shown, as much as we can ascertain, that it's up to the task and not just another Galaxy game. MK11 has no reason to be completely pathetically weak on the level of an Inside or something like that.

transience posted...

MK11 has no reason to be completely pathetically weak on the level of an Inside or something like that.

Not as weak as INSIDE, but...

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7643-halfway-through-2019-what-is-your-pick-for-game-of-the-year

It's a great result for Odyssey but MK11 is definitely bad fodder.

LeonhartFour posted...

Mega Man was in the base game!

Yeah okay, I missed the DLC part I admit.

I do think Bayonetta and maybe Ryu and Mewtwo were cared for too though.

oh this is a monster result for Odyssey no doubt

I definitely wasn't expecting it to be on pace to outmatch Ultimate

can't wait to see the arguments about odyssey being stronger indirectly but ssbu being stronger directly

The Odyssey result could be a warning sign that Ultimate isn't as strong as we originally thought. Which makes the 2018 GotY result not look as amazing for God of War.

LeonhartFour posted...

there's the Crew Curse

exactly

whatever else did come in Smash 4 DLC

Mewtwo was super-hyped when revealed

whoops

So where was The Walking Dead at this point of the match?

Master Moltar posted...

can't wait to see the arguments about odyssey being stronger indirectly but ssbu being stronger directly

I'm expecting the inverse tbh

Have we ever had a Mario vs Smash match? Do we know what side the hierarchy swings to?

Mario gets Samus'd by the game that gave Samus her strength, that would be hilarious

2006 Mario/Smash was a heinous result, but 2006 was the absolute apex of Smash popularity (because of Brawl hype, which, again, was on a whole other level from everything this decade)

Hbthebattle posted...

Mewtwo was super-hyped when revealed

eh mostly because he was the biggest Brawl snub so people were glad to have him back

but I guess Ryu was a big deal too!

LeonhartFour posted...

eh mostly because he was the biggest Brawl snub so people were glad to have him back

but I guess Ryu was a big deal too!

Ryu was leaked really early, which took most of the wind out of his sails

ZeldaTPLink posted...

Have we ever had a Mario vs Smash match? Do we know what side the hierarchy swings to?

When considering the totality of each series, Mario is a stronger overall series than Smash going off the strength of Mario 3, Mario World, and Mario 64. After Mario 64, Smash is actually stronger than Mario in general.

The only Smash 4 DLC that was a big deal was Cloud. Ryu was technically a big deal but I never got the impression the Smash fanbase actually cared that he got in. A big part of this is that the only character to get a fancy trailer even remotely on par with the ones in Smash Ultimate was Corrin, and no one likes Corrin. You watch Banjo's trailer and it's this amazing-looking CG thing that presents Banjo as this triumphant return to a Nintendo system. Every trailer in Smash 4 gave of the impression of 'oh hey, this guy is here now', even Cloud's.

Yeah, the presentation of Smash Ultimate is on an entirely different level from Smash 4. It's more like the Brawl days.

LeonhartFour posted...

Yeah, the presentation of Smash Ultimate is on an entirely different level from Smash 4. It's more like the Brawl days.

Sakurai didn't have a budget for the Smash 4 DLC character trailers, which is why they almost all relied on in-game footage.

The normal newcomers in Smash 4 had great trailers, like Rosalina and Little Mac!

yeah I don't agree about Ultimate having some kind of next level trailers compared to 4, but I also don't want to argue about Smash trailers for another 30 posts. we'll get our chance to see the two games compete in the coming rounds. so far it is a tie, more or less, maybe a slight edge to Odyssey but maybe MK11 just sucks.

let me tell you, even as someone who has Undertale winning a couple of rounds, the prospect of Undertale in a close match is terrifying for what it could mean down the line.

yeah the idea that a modern MK could be as worthless as Tekken is possible

most of us bailed on Mortal Kombat after the first three

you'd love the story mode in MK11! check it out on youtube if you ever get bored

Oh, I've watched the story modes for 9-11 on YouTube! They're wild.

but I haven't actually played them or anything!

Previous Results: Nothing too surprising. Smash dominated, Minecraft actually got an opponent it could triple, Spider-Man did well, and Link Between Worlds did alright.

Crew Predictions: 19/20

Next Round Thoughts: Smash/LBW is whatever. Spider-Man only did about 6% worse on Dead Space 2 then Minecraft did on Dota 2, and I'd easily put DS2 over Dota 2.

Crew Prediction Challenge:

Moltar: 19
Kleenex: 19
transience: 18
Leonhart: 18
Guest: 15

Crew Accuracy Challenge: Moltar gets the point for Smash, Minecraft, and Zelda, and transience gets the point for Spidey.

Moltar: 6
Kleenex: 4
Guest: 4 (spooky96, Hbthebattle, Black Turtle, ctes)
transience: 3
Leonhart: 2

I am inaccurate

ZeldaTPLink posted...

I'm expecting the inverse tbh

Have we ever had a Mario vs Smash match? Do we know what side the hierarchy swings to?

We have! In Round 2 of the 2009 contest, Brawl SFF'd Galaxy into losing to GTA IV (and CoD4, but Galaxy had lost to CoD4 in R1 as well with only Pokémon DPP as an LFF anchor. CoD4 was actually strong in 2009; according to the Universal X-Stat Calculator, 2009 CoD4 gets nearly 70% against 2015 CoD4.)

Not exactly the strongest Mario game, but still, the idea of Galaxy losing to a GTA game seems a bit suspect. In fact, the very next year, Pokémon RSE squeaked out a Round 1 win over GTA IV with 50.77% and then got just 40.1% on Galaxy in Round 2. Not quite as good as a direct result, but pretty close. So there you have it; Galaxy got 46.4% on GTA IV in a fourway with Brawl present and just one year later in 1v1s got 59.9% on a game that had just beaten GTA IV in a close match the previous round.

LeonhartFour posted...

He got to the semifinals in 2007!

But yeah, other than that, never.

Not true. He made the semis in 2008 as well! Turning around a 2007 result to do so, and possibly giving us our first hint that Pikachu was legit. Remember this: At the time, Pikachu > Dante in Round 3 in 2007 was thought to be only possible due to Leon Kennedy LFF-ing him, and in Round 4, Luigi and Pikachu LFF'd each other into allowing him to advance in second place behind Master Chief.

Yet just one year later, with that same Leon Kennedy in the poll with him in Round 4, he beats Master Chief! Granted, the Guru cookie had Dante in second place in that match anyway, just behind Chief instead of Kirby who actually made it, but still.

Though the fact remains that Dante has never won a debated 1v1 match. It's just 2007 and 2008 where he looked strong.

Round 1 – Grand Theft Auto V vs. Baba Is You

Moltar’s Analysis

Welcome to the Game of the Decade 2 contest, where everyone and their mother can score an 80%+ blowout. With a few exceptions, indie games have been getting destroyed if they’re up against an established franchise. It’s weird to expect a GTA game to go big, but Baba is You should be on the weaker end of indie games here. If GTAV can’t go big here then it is in some deep trouble.

Moltar’s Bracket: Grand Theft Auto V

Moltar’s Prediction: Grand Theft Auto V – 80%

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transience’s Analysis

Well, today's results are easily my worst day predicting the contest so far, and yet it's also been the most fun? With Mario dominating and the threat of Undertale possibly being removed (?), we come to the most debated division of the contest. That debate will have to wait a round though as there are some real weaklings in this eightpack.

Baba is You is cool as hell, but it's the nichiest of the niche when it comes to this contest. I think this matchup is really interesting in a weird way because GTA has always theoretically attracted antivotes and we get to see GTA in its most fortuitous draw yet. Usually we get a Golden Sun or a Ness or something just strong enough to beat it, but this year we get a complete weakling, a mid-tier indie game and an enhanced port. This'll be fun to see.

Let me be clear: Baba is You, at its absolute best, is a poor man's version of Inside. GTA5 should theoretically be on Doom's level so this could be the blowout of the contest. But we all know that won't happen and GTA will find some way to turn a cakewalk into some kind of 72% result or something.

transience's prediction: Grand Theft Auto V with 83.45%

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Leonhart’s Analysis

Welcome to Division 4, where we all wonder, “Are any of these games any good?” as we wait to see which round Grand Theft Auto V decides to choke! Seriously though, this division is so wide open because there are no powerhouses here, and you’ve got four or five games that have the potential to win it depending on how things play out. It’s nice to have a division without a clear favorite in a contest that’s generally full of chalk!

Anyway, Grand Theft Auto V is in no danger of losing in round 1, but I’m very curious to see exactly how high of a percentage it can get. I get the feeling there’s a decent contingent of this site that just flat out doesn’t like GTA. I was looking through past polls, and the highest percentage anything the series has ever gotten in a contest match was the 65% San Andreas got on Dead Space in the first Game of the Decade. We’ve been getting a ton of really high blowouts the last few days, so if GTA is ever going to land a massive blowout, it’s now! Although part of me can see people voting for Baba Is You because it’s a funny name or something like that…!

Leonhart’s Vote: Baba Is You

Leonhart’s Prediction: Grand Theft Auto V with 70.70%

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Kleenex’s Analysis

Here comes another GTA match, riding high with a 1 seed, ready to disappoint at a moment’s notice. We all know GTA’s contest history by now - the series sucks. It got lucky here with a 1 seed against a week opponent. Baba Is You is a really damn cool little puzzle game from last year, and it’s a shame it just barely squeaked into the bracket. Not that I think it’ll be that strong - it won’t - I just think it deserves better. That being said, I think there’s a real shot that Baba overperforms here. If we look at GTAV’s other few contest matches - 62% against Shenmue, then losing to Mario RPG - we can probably make a reasonable guess at how well it’ll do. I don’t think Baba is on par with Shenmue (which disgusts me to say), so I’ll probably peg GTA at high 60s today. Which is embarrassing because Baba is the kind of game that should get 80%’d by a 1 seed.

Kleenex’s Prediction: Grand Theft Auto V with 67.50%

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Guest’s Analysis - ctes

Baba Is You is definitely among the weakest games in bracket, which obviously makes the match a nobrainer, but it also means Baba is You can "expose" GTAV or at least make it look weak. And I think it just might do it to a point where people are calling for a Cuphead upset, but to a point where it doesn't make me feel any bit worse about taking GTAV to at least round 3 (I have taken it to round 4, but Persona will be what makes me worried about that if anything).

See, GTAV is among the biggest games ever released, but GTA doesn't exactly have a good GameFAQs history. All things considered, I do think it looked fine in 2015 for what you could expect here and if anything it should have gotten slightly stronger. But GTA is absolutely not a franchise to blowout anything here I believe. At least not a game that is as different from it as Baba is You is. I believe GTAV will be around 70% percent and still rather easily get past Cuphead too. It may seem stretched to think that's how it works, but it's what I believe.

Grand Theft Auto V - 71.51%
Baba Is You - 28.49%
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Crew Consensus: GTA hijacks its way into Round 2.

Leonhart4 posted...

Somehow SND only has the second worst guest pick of the day...!

Yeah, these other guest picks are making me seem sane in comparison.

if GTA can't break 70% on Baba is You then it's losing to Cuphead or XCOM

looking at the map, europe hates undertale

tran is right, GTAV is going to destroy Baba

Baba is Death

Round 1 – Cuphead vs. XCOM 2

Moltar’s Analysis

Match with an indie game? Time to shit on i-hold up this time it’s CUPHEAD?!

Cuphead should be on the higher end of indie games here, as that one has appreciated some mainstream love and is still relevant today. Now, on the higher end doesn’t mean it will be strong or anything, but like Hollow Knight, it should be able to beat out a game that doesn’t resonate on GameFAQs at all like XCOM.

Cuphead should be up there with, if not above, the Hollow Knights and Shovel Knights in terms of indie game strength. I have a hard time seeing where XCOM 2 would land these days, but I don’t think it would beat Berseria or Dragon’s Dogma so...

Moltar’s Bracket: Cuphead

Moltar’s Prediction: Cuphead – 67%

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transience’s Analysis

Cuphead might be our strongest indie game thanks to that damn game's sense of style. You don't need to play it to be like "yooooo Cuphead". It's gotten a nice Switch release in the last year, and while I don't think Switch release = instant strength like some people seem to -- it's become the 2020 version of "x character is in Smash" -- it's still going to do pretty well. Cuphead is stronger than Hollow Knight.

But XCOM 2... could be legit? I don't know. The XCOM games are decent and if this were the 2012 XCOM I might entertain an upset. As it is, it still has a good chance of doing some damage. It's a well-liked strategy RPG. Cuphead should be better, but if it loses, it probably won't be because it's trash. If Cuphead goes big here, we'll be whispering about Cuphead over GTA just like we did with Golden Sun, and that'll be fun.

transience's prediction: Cuphead with 58.44%

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Leonhart’s Analysis

I’ve seen some high expectations for Cuphead around the board, but some of it might be because of the draw it’s gotten. People are always looking for an excuse to bet against GTA, and if you’re wanting to pick it to suffer an embarrassing loss to an indie game, Cuphead seems like as good of a bet as any! The titular character held up decently well against Dante in the last Character Battle, so I imagine the game has relatively decent strength, too.

Which is probably more than we can say for XCOM 2. GameFAQs just isn’t really a fan of tactical turn-based strategy games. I’m kinda surprised it got into the contest at all! I don’t really know what to predict here in terms of percentages. We’ve seen a lot of blowouts lately, but we haven’t seen a game like Cuphead go really high, so I’m not sure I feel comfortable giving it a big percentage.

Leonhart’s Vote: Cuphead

Leonhart’s Prediction: Cuphead with 63.76%

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Kleenex’s Analysis

Do people actually like XCOM 2? Legitimate question, I don’t actually know. My impression was that the first game was more popular, but that one’s not in the bracket, so now I don’t know what to believe. Anyway, Cuphead was super hot when it came out. People were extremely high on that game. A few years removed, I don’t hear about it quite as much, but it still seems fairly revered by those who have played it. Indie games have been showing up so far this contest, and I don’t see any reason to think that Cuphead won’t either, especially against what I perceive is a relatively flimsy opponent.

Kleenex’s Prediction: Cuphead with 57.75%

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Guest’s Analysis - Dr Football

A big theme of the first round is deciding which indie games matter and which don’t. Hollow Knight looked good but it seems likely Tales is really bad. Bastion picked up a win as well. Cuphead should easily be stronger than both of these, decidedly so is its GOTY performance against Hollow Knight is any indication.

XCOM 2 I assume is going to be super weak, and I have a feeling this match is going to look silly percentage wise.

Cuphead with 75.29%
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Crew Consensus: This match isn’t too hard for Cuphead to win.

transience posted...

if GTA can't break 70% on Baba is You then it's losing to Cuphead or XCOM

I am bad at percentages

Round 1 – Persona 4 Golden vs. FTL: Faster Than Light

Moltar’s Analysis

Well if RE2 and DOOM are any inclination, remakes are going to be looking good this contest. P4G is a Vita port of the original, so the big question is if fans of the original P4 are going to still support it even if they might not have played that specific version (spoilers i am).

In a case like this, where the opponent is a small time indie game, then yeah, the Persona name should carry it through this match.

Moltar’s Bracket: Persona 4 Golden

Moltar’s Prediction: Persona 4 Golden – 77%

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transience’s Analysis

Persona 4 Golden is the wrench that's thrown into this division. On strength alone, P4 probably wins this division, but there's that Golden part to consider. We'll have to go deep to understand if that matters or not, but based on what happened with RE2 I'm inclined to say that it won't hurt much until we get to decent competition.

FTL isn't decent competition. It's better than Inside, but it's not better than Bastion or VVVVVV. This result could look similar to the RE2/Danganronpa matchup. P4 doesn't have the same playership that Resident Evil can claim, but it's probably more liked overall as it fits more into this site's demographics.

transience's prediction: Persona 4 Golden with 77.33%

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Leonhart’s Analysis

Persona 4 Golden is one of the biggest wild cards in this contest. Persona 4 at the peak of its strength could win this division, but what will the voters think of Golden? This isn’t a remake like Resident Evil 2 or Pokemon HG/SS, and the original game isn’t from this decade. I’ve heard multiple complaints from people on the board saying Persona 4 Golden shouldn’t even be allowed in the contest because it doesn’t qualify. How many voters will hold the same mindset? How many voters will just treat Golden as a proxy for the original? After all, the game is a Vita exclusive, which means a large chunk of the site has probably never played it. In Game of the Year polls, ports and remakes tend to do considerably worse than the original, but this is honestly the first time we’ve seen them in a contest, so there’s no telling what to expect here.

Regardless, Persona 4 Golden shouldn’t have any troubles in round 1. FTL has gained some momentum in recent years, but it’s still a real-time strategy game and GameFAQs doesn’t like those so much. Like the previous match though, I’m unsure how high you can reasonably expect Golden to go here. Persona 4 got 77% on 999 in 2015, so the original is at least capable of getting that high if FTL is that weak, but I’m not totally sure it is or if Golden can take on the strength of the original!

Leonhart’s Vote: Persona 4 Golden

Leonhart’s Prediction: Persona 4 Golden with 71.39%
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Kleenex’s Analysis

Persona 4 being in this bracket feels really weird to me. I don’t think Golden is *that* much of a different game to allow it to cheat its way into this decade, but here we are. I’m going to assume that Golden maintains the strength that base Persona 4 has in these contests - I don’t see too much reason why it would change too much one way or the other (and for those unsure, that strength is actually not that much). THAT BEING SAID. Persona 5 came out since the last games contest, and Persona as a whole seems to be a tad more popular than it was 5 years ago, even if Joker couldn’t beat Claire Redfield.

I feel like I’m getting long-winded for no reason. Persona 4 is going to win this match. FTL is cool and all, but Persona shouldn’t have any trouble. I’m more interested to see how it handles the rest of this division, because looking forward, there are a lot of weak or ripe to flop games in its path, and P4 is exactly the kind of game that could take advantage.

Kleenex’s Prediction: Persona 4 Golden with 68.75%

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Guest’s Analysis - Hbthebattle

P4G is probably the "deserving" game here, given that it's essentially a port of a 2008 game. Regardless, it's going to completely destroy FTL, which is a relatively unknown indie. Persona 4 proved against 999 that it can dole out super-high beatdowns and fodder games have been regularly trashed in this contest. It's going to be a beatdown.

Persona 4 - 80.1%

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Crew Consensus: FTL is outta here in light speed.

MIA Guest Alert - @SSBM_Guy

I don't have a write-up for RDR/Ghost Trick yet. If I don't get one in a few hours, it's not getting posted with the rest of the Crew write-ups.

Oh weird. I sent it to you already.

Let me try another email.

crisis averted

Wish we had a better round 1 gauge for Golden than this one.

Leonhart4 posted...

Wish we had a better round 1 gauge for Golden than this one.

Good round 1 gauges are a privilege in this contest, tbh.

Master Moltar posted...

Well if RE2 and DOOM are any inclination, remakes are going to be looking good this contest.

DOOM is not a remake.

If GTA5 doesnt clear 80% it's a bomb. Name one game in this bracket that loses to Baba Is You.

KamikazePotato posted...

If GTA5 doesnt clear 80% it's a bomb. Name one game in this bracket that loses to Baba Is You.

subnautica

also maybe dota2

KamikazePotato posted...

If GTA5 doesnt clear 80% it's a bomb. Name one game in this bracket that loses to Baba Is You.

Fortnite

INSIDE loses to Baba is You probably.

Like, just for example

Persona 4 (2015g) VS 999 (2015g)
Persona 4 has a strength of 25.16.
999 has a strength of 11.17.
Persona 4 wins with 77.80% of the vote!

If GTAV wants to say that it can win this division, its got to be able to blow out bottom-tier fodder. Especially when games like DOOM are doing the same. Antivotes can only be used as an excuse so many times.

here's some ownership numbers which can give some idea of obscurity on this site. I didn't do every game, just a few to try to find the lowest. I only found one lower than Baba. (this is obviously not predictive in any way.)

Disco Elysium: 101
Baba: 108
Night in the Woods: 120
Inside: 182
Dead Cells: 287
Edith Finch: 365
Subnautica: 485
Talos Principle: 488
Fate/Grand Order: 539
MK11: 627
Tekken 7: 1343
Octopath: 2130
Undertale: 4018

transience posted...

MK11: 627
Tekken 7: 1343

Tekken 7 stronger than MK11 confirmed...!