Game of the Decade: 2010-2019 Contest Analysis Crew - Part 1

not feeling so good about having the high Walking Dead pick now

I’m very open to this if it means Ori can beat Dragon Age

seriously though

have people turned against Walking Dead because of the TV show or something

TWD already sucked. Getting doubled by Uncharted 2 is a bad look.

I think most people just didn't expect much out of Bastion, even considering how well Hollow Knight did.

well I figured Walking Dead was the well known game that would get "respect" votes here

Maybe it is

Maybe this is TWD with inflated strength

The Mana Sword posted...

Next

haha idiot

I'm not shocked that Walking Dead is doing poorly. this was always within the realm of possibility if Bastion was worth anything. turns out it's maybe okay?

indie games are 2/2 here in terms of beating expectations. let's see what V can do.

well I guess this will end up counting as a crew curse

granted, very few people would have picked Bastion, but hey

It happens on day 2

I wonder if DQ11 could be stronger than 2015 DQ8? Being on both Switch and PS4 (and PC) is kind of a big deal.

DQ8 on 3DS would make up for it though, methinks.

nah. if DQ8 was in this bracket, it'd probably be a top 10 game.

I considered commenting about the TWD vs. Bastion match beforehand, but I didn't want the actual results to make me look foolish a la Hollow Knight > Berseria. Now that Bastion's neck-and-neck with TWD, here's my two cents about what happened:

A majority of the Crew write-ups talked about how TWD was the more respected and beloved game in this match, but I don't think that was actually true. We all (should) know about how much of a splash it made on release, of course. It was probably the mainstream breakout game of 2012, complete with the lion's share of GotY awards back then, and it arguably legitimized both the episodic release format and narrative-centered video games with minimal conventional gameplay in general.

That's just the trick, though - mainstream Western games tend not to maintain their strength (which was low to begin with in this case) through the years here as they slowly but steadily slip from voters' memories. TWD in particular had it worse than most primarily due to Telltale's collapse, and specifically because of how Telltale precipitated said collapse by saturating the market with TWD sequels, spinoffs, and reskins. In the process, the narrative impact of choice TWD was sold on turned out to be an illusion, which devalued the game as a whole for many voters. The megahit TV show following a similar arc didn't help matters.

On the other hand, there's Bastion, which was a key contributor to the indie boom but didn't have nearly the impact of TWD at the time. However, Supergiant has since become the single most consistent big name in the indie sphere, which has of course exploded since Bastion's release almost nine years ago. Bastion itself doesn't quite seem to have the love and respect of something like Hollow Knight, but if nothing else, many voters still remember it fondly for everything it represents within the sphere of indie gaming.

To put it simply, TWD is probably more remembered, but Bastion is certainly better remembered, which really seems to matter when voters are tasked with determining which of the two deserves to be called the Game of the Decade more. That's why I (as a TWD picker myself, granted) was baffled when the entire Crew, and most Oracle pickers to boot, seemed to have OH YEAH TWD WILL WIN NO PROBLEM confidence about this match.

I mean this doesn't mean anything if you're not willing to say this before the match because you're afraid to look bad...!

DQ11 > DQ8

yeah, you’re supposed to be an idiot and call the match 2 minutes in

Leonhart4 posted...

I mean this doesn't mean anything if you're not willing to say this before the match because you're afraid to look bad...!

Yeah, admittedly it's not the best look for me to wait until the match validates my theories, and being totally wrong about things in a contest where we don't know that much about most of these entrants is part of the fun. In the future, I'll try to post my hot takes before the match actually begins.

On another note, when will guest sign-ups for Divisions 3-4 begin?

don't be shy about your thoughts. if there's one thing that bothers us, it's when people come in saying something was obvious after the fact. well, that and saying how dumb we are while also not giving us credit when we get things right!

not saying you're doing any of this and you've been productive in this thread -- just saying for future knowledge.

I think we have a couple of really interesting decisions to make based on these results tomorrow, and I'm interested to see how the crew rolls.

More Guest spots are opened up

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/78514217

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7915

BotW ain't playing around with a big win.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7916

Expected showing from Halo.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7917

Again, expected performance for FFXV.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7918

Hollow Knight with a very good showing.

Next Round Thoughts: BotW should go really big again, and FFXV/HK could be interesting if HK ended in the mid-60s, but FFXV still looks to be a favorite in R2.

Crew Prediction Challenge:

Moltar: 4
transience: 4
Kleenex: 4
Leonhart: 3
Guest: 3

Crew Accuracy Challenge: transience gets the point for BotW, spooky96 gets the point for Halo, Moltar gets the point for FFXV, and Kleenex gets the point for HK.

Moltar: 1
transience: 1
Kleenex: 1
Guest: 1 (spooky96)
Leonhart: 0

Round 1 – Mass Effect 2 vs. Resident Evil 7: biohazard

Moltar’s Analysis

Went back to look at RE7’s GotY polls and yikes I don’t remember it doing as badly as it actually did. It was a distant 4th in the PS4 poll to Persona 5, Horizon, and Nier.

ME2 didn’t have a great showing in 2015, and people are doubting it even making it out of its own division. A strong showing here would help quell those fears, and RE7 seems like a game that it could go big against since its the old school RE games that are seeing a resurgence in the public eye, not this one.

Moltar’s Bracket: Mass Effect 2

Moltar’s Prediction: Mass Effect 2 – 70%

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transience’s Analysis

This is the only match that I feel sure about today. Mass Effect 2 really underwhelmed in the last game contest and the series has died an ugly death, but the competition in 2015 was on a whole other level from this one. ME2 got a really fortunate draw too which means that it could easily go to the quarterfinals without too much trouble.

RE7... you know, it's really hard to gauge RE7. RE7 played best as a VR game which I bet has an audience of like 2% here on GameFAQs. Its GOTY polls are bad. And yet, it's Resident Evil.. and RE has become hot with all of the high quality remakes they've been putting out. But those games are great because old RE is great, and new RE, while a really nice return to form, just didn't get the playrate that it needed to do well. ME2 should roll here.

transience's prediction: Mass Effect 2 with 69.55%

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Leonhart’s Analysis

There’s a lot of talk about how Mass Effect 2 will do here based on how it did in 2015 and how Andromeda has basically killed the series in the interim. I do wish it had gotten a more difficult division because I think it’s probably a solid favorite against everything else here. It certainly won’t have any trouble here, but I wonder what a reasonable expectation is for it against Resident Evil 7. RE6 was widely panned, but from what I heard, people actually liked RE7, although who knows how many people they even got back after RE6. I think the Resident Evil name should probably keep it from getting killed too badly, but who knows!

Leonhart’s Vote: Mass Effect 2

Leonhart’s Prediction: Mass Effect 2 with 65.65%

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Kleenex’s Analysis

Mass Effect 2 is the first game in the bracket that I think we have a ‘real’ read on. It’s had a few contest matches already against a few other known quantities, and looking back on those results, it’s...actually not as strong as I thought. Not that it should really be in any danger of losing here, mind you, but the opponent isn’t exactly a no-name game. I’m not sure if the Mass Effect name has been sullied enough after Andromeda to totally tank it or anything, but I’m actually expecting something of a lukewarm performance. Depending on how things look today, I think Mass Effect 2 could have a pretty rough road ahead of itself trying to get out of this division.

Kleenex’s Prediction: Mass Effect 2 with 62.25%

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Guest’s Analysis - paulg

I don't think Mass Effect is actually going to have too bad of a showing this contest despite the series being a potential target for anti-voting due to Andromeda. ME3 should easily win its match against StarCraft 2 before losing to Witcher 3, and ME2 should easily reach the division finals. Not certain about them winning their division, since I think RE2, Bloodborne and Fire Emblem Awakening could beat it, but we'll see how all four fair in their first matches. Obviously, if they lose to Fallout 4 next round, I'd call them a disappointment.

As for this match, ME2 wins but I suspect RE7 has enough strength to not get doubled. However, ME2's performance here should tell us how well it'll do in future rounds. If ME2 destroys RE7, it's the division favourite. If it does notably worse than my prediction, then it might be in trouble against Fallout 4.

Prediction: Mass Effect 2 - 60.78%

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Crew Consensus: Massive victory for Mass Effect.

Crew Curse on 2nd day? Ah traditions.

there’s definitely one match tomorrow I kinda wish I had flipped on, but oh well

Master Moltar posted...

transience’s Analysis

RE7... you know, it's really hard to gauge RE7. RE7 played best as a VR game which I bet has an audience of like 2% here on GameFAQs.

10%

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7651-got-vr

Honestly, I thought that most people wouldn’t remember Bastion because it’s an indie game, so I went with the Walking Dead because I thought it would be a lot more popular

Wow, Sekiro lost a lot of percentage overnight.

my boxed in percentage looked actually good for a while there

I stand by my take that 2019 GOTY has overrated a lot of games, like Three Houses

that said, Sekiro could easily take Monster Hunter for all we know

Round 1 – Fallout 4 vs. VVVVVV

Moltar’s Analysis

Based off the one good poll we have of Fallout 4, it was worth 45% on Witcher 3 in GotY 2015. Witcher is more of an evergreen game that has gotten stronger over time, while Fallout has gotten a lot of negative press recently with its later entries. VVVVVV, like Hollow Knight, has shown up on a lot of other platforms since its release, so its definitely gotten a lot more exposure since its one poll in 2010 shows. Basically the question is if the Fallout franchise has fallen enough on GameFAQs for it to lose to a widely-played indie game.

I don’t think so, as that seems like too far for Fallout 4 to have dropped. The Fallout series is stronger than the Tales series, so it should be able to beat an indie game. After seeing Hollow Knight and Bastion over-perform though, I don’t think it’ll be as easy of a win as I thought before the contest started.

Moltar’s Bracket: Fallout 4

Moltar’s Prediction: Fallout 4 – 57%

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transience’s Analysis

Oh god. I have no damn idea what to do here. It's hard not to take Bastion and Hollow Knight's results as some kind of indie trend -- and VVVVVV is a great little test. Let's just talk about it. VVVVVV is on every platform in the world now. It's on phones. It's on Switch. It's on PS4. Heck, I'm closely following a project to port the game to the SNES ever since the source code was released at AGDQ a couple months ago. Pretty much everyone has played V in some capacity, and it's super likable with that killer soundtrack and its infectious spirit.

We haven't seen VVVVVV in a poll in almost 10 years and the game has exploded in popularity since then. Is it more popular than Hollow Knight? No, probably not, but I wouldn't completely count it out and it's definitely better than Bastion is.

The argument against indies is a lot more logical: new Tales games are just extremely weak, and Bastion is hanging tight with a visual novel game, a genre that's never gotten anybody going on this website. It's a lot easier to doubt the competition than think that this website of all places suddenly decided to get up to speed on the amazing indie game scene.

With all that said, let's talk about the clear favourite. Fallout 4 has some pretty decent results in its GOTY polls, though those results feel real weird thanks to how this site handles multiplatform titles. Fallout 4 never really felt like a fan favourite though. It's competent game that people generally liked, but I've never gotten the sense that it's a big hit. New Vegas is probably more liked and Fallout 76 did a real number to the franchise. Fallout 4 won't completely bomb, but if people like VVVVVV as much as they like Hollow Knight it might be in trouble.

I won't pick V here, but I'm not going to give Fallout 4 a lot of credit here.

transience's prediction: Fallout 4 with 54.05%

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Leonhart’s Analysis

I’m surprised to see VVVVVV get such a high seed. I don’t recall seeing any sort of rally for it on B8. It was the first indie game I ever played, so I have some fond memories of it. I have questions about how well Fallout 4 will do. It was considered a bit of a disappointment after Fallout 3 and New Vegas, and coupled with the debacle that Fallout 76 was, I wonder if it might not look very good here. It did finish runner-up to Witcher 3 in the 2015 GOTY, but that was honestly a pretty weak year overall. The only Nintendo game represented was the Majora’s Mask remake because Xenoblade Chronicles X won the Wii U poll, which should tell you all you need to know.

Anyway, the point is that I think Fallout 4 would’ve been a juicy upset pick if you had put it up against something else, but I’m not sure VVVVVV has what it takes. I think it’ll make FO4 look bad though!

Leonhart’s Vote: VVVVVV

Leonhart’s Prediction: Fallout 4 with 58.01%

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Kleenex’s Analysis

A travesty if I ever saw one. V is going to lose, but it shouldn’t. This site likes itself some Fallout, and even though Fallout 4 isn’t going to be as strong as Fallout 3 has in previous contests, I still expect Fallout 4 to look pretty good. Truth be told, I’m actually fairly surprised V even got in this thing, let alone as a 9 seed. The poor game has been in literally one poll in the entirety of GameFAQs history where it finished...slightly ahead of Recettear in the 2010 indie game poll. Now I know what you’re saying. “But Kleenex, that’s the same Recetter who beat Travis Touchdown in 2013! Surely that means something!” I know you were all thinking it.

Well I have bad news for you.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5165-character-battle-ix-division-3-round-1-big-boss-vs-peacock

I don’t even remember what Peacock is.

Kleenex’s Prediction: Fallout 4 with 69.25%

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Guest’s Analysis - LinkMarioSamus

I took this match because I've actually beaten VVVVVV, and have a bit of a feel for Fallout since my brother is a fan of the series. I'm not exactly banking on VVVVVV scoring an upset, but Fallout 4 is NOT going to go big here. Fallout 4 is a heavily contested sequel even by Fallout standards, and much of the time it's brought up it's to complain about it. It also definitely didn't make the same impact Fallout 3 did on release. Let's not even go into Fallout 76 putting a massive target on Bethesda

My approach to calculating the percentage in this match is to pattern it after both of the "AAA game underperforms against indie game" matches in 2015 - Mass Effect 3/Undertale and GTA: San Andreas/Shovel Knight. There's also Persona 4/Braid in 2010 which fell under a similar percentage. Here goes:

Fallout 4 with 63%

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Crew Consensus: Fallout makes its way to a Round 2 shelter.

well at this point it pretty much is "Bravely Default vs. Ni no Kuni: who ya got?"

and I think I'd lean Bravely Default but who knows!

Master Moltar posted...

I don’t even remember what Peacock is.

that Skullgirls game, right...?

well at this point it pretty much is "Bravely Default vs. Ni no Kuni: who ya got?"

and I think I'd lean Bravely Default but who knows!

yeah I saw people backing bravely default as “obviously stronger” but I have no idea why

I’m so excited to see what VVVVVV can do

transcience posted...

yeah I saw people backing bravely default as “obviously stronger” but I have no idea why

I’m so excited to see what VVVVVV can do

because it's loosely associated with Final Fantasy and it's on a Nintendo system would be my guess

it’s a portable rpg that’s a spiritual successor to ff5 which, while awesome, has never been close to a contest.

Oh, I get where you're coming from, but I'd generally say it's better to be Nintendo than not, and it did just get back into the news cycle.

People who say BD would comfortably beat NNK say it less because we think BD is some powerhouse and more because it's hard to believe NNK is worth much.

It's just as hard for me to believe BD is worth anything.

I thought people would be picking blowout wins here, but recent results have probably gotten the crew scared.

Now watch VVVVVV win.

Is Ki no Kuni worth anything tho

Probably nothing, but I might pick it because I think it'd draw more of the voters that has to vote for every match than I think BD would. It stands out more.

I might also not pick it. I don't know. But I fail to see BD being worth much more.

I spent some time considering V precontest. Fallout 4 is just a tough one to judge.

I heard people say they were picking Fallout 4 to quadruple VVVVVV pre-contest.

Yeah, I actually wrote that before the contest started, so I was plenty skeptical of Fallout 4 beforehand!

Surprised to see so many people think VVVVV is going to get that close to Fallout. What's the thinking there?

Axem_Turtle posted...

Surprised to see so many people think VVVVV is going to get that close to Fallout. What's the thinking there?

IndieFEAR

Axem_Turtle posted...

Surprised to see so many people think VVVVV is going to get that close to Fallout. What's the thinking there?

People don't like Fallout 4 that much and Fallout 76 has hurt the brand in general.

Axem_Turtle posted...

Surprised to see so many people think VVVVV is going to get that close to Fallout. What's the thinking there?

A lot of people hate Fallout 4 so they might vote against it out of spite. But I think that it will win because people who are familiar with the Fallout series but have never heard of VVVVV will vote for Fallout 4 because it’s a game that they have heard of

I can’t think of any way to discern my thinking on this match

Also VVVVVV is a lot of people's first indie game, kinda like Bastion, so there might be some nostalgia for it.