Game of the Decade: 2010-2019 Contest Analysis Crew - Part 1

"whoops"

I guess we were way off on Hollow Knight, even for those who picked it to win here. Kleenex has the best Hollow Knight pick so far, and even he was off by more than 5%.

So this is how I end up starting my string of Guest appearances for this contest, getting a debated match wrong. I don't really regret picking Berseria as most indies are going to have to prove their strength first. There weren't many indies I would have taken over Berseria. Shovel Knight is one of those games I would have picked, and the same goes for the likes of Cuphead, Super Meat Boy, and Celeste.

Hah, I picked Tales to win, but I absolutely adore Hollow Knight, so I love this result. Besides, it's only 1 point.

Big Bob posted...

Besides, it's only 1 point.

hehehe

pjbasis posted...

hehehe

also:

LusterSoldier posted...

and the same goes for the likes of Cuphead, Super Meat Boy, and Celeste.

If you would have picked Celeste or Super Meat Boy over Berseria but not Hollow Knight, that's your problem. Anyone could tell you that Hollow Knight would be the strongest of those three games, especially given GameFAQs' propensity for Metroidvanias.

I'd put Hollow Knight third on that list.

Hollow Knight is absolutely stronger than Super Meat Boy lmao

When there are little to no stats to work with you have to rely on keeping your ear on the ground and listening to what people are saying. There is a LOT of enthusiasm for Hollow Knight on this site, it's probably going to end up easily being one of the strongest indies in the contest.

Round 1 – Monster Hunter: World vs. Bravely Default: Flying Fairy

Moltar’s Analysis

Bravely Default kind of came and went. If it was as strong as it was at its peak 5 years ago, it might have a chance here. I highly doubt that’s the case though, as the series just hasn’t remained relevant.

Monster Hunter, on the other hand, has been building steam. World did alright in the 2018 GotY polls, and the fact that it’s more recent and more relevant in people’s minds should give it the solid win here.

Moltar’s Bracket: Monster Hunter: World

Moltar’s Prediction: Monster Hunter: World – 60%

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transience’s Analysis

Today's matches are odd. I more or less know who's going to win each one but I have no feel on any of them. I really struggled with this entire eightpack because it's hard to feel good about any of 'em.

Take Monster Hunter, for example. This MH game is the first to really cross over into the mainstream outside of Japan for a number of reasons. The other games had fans, but it didn't really blow up like World did. And yet... I'm not totally sure if it plays on this website? It's strange. I just don't know that a majority of the site has any interest in it even though it's one of the most popular games on the site in terms of activity,

Of course, its opponent is Bravely Default, a game with a somewhat wide playership but not a game that anyone really loves. You won't find too many players who put Bravely Default in their top 25, whereas Monster Hunter fans are a devoted bunch. BD seems to have been left behind as everyone moved on to the (apparently) superior Octopath Traveler, a game that will also get butchered later in this contest.

BD could make things embarrassing for MonHun if it finds a way to flop, but it's not going to win. I'm not going to predict a collapse here though because I think MonHun also has a really good shot at winning 3 rounds.

transience's prediction: Monster Hunter: World with 64.45%

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Leonhart’s Analysis

At first glance, I thought of this as a potential upset. Bravely Default did pretty well in its GOTY poll the year it came out, but then I wondered if people even cared about it all that much anymore. It couldn’t get a single character into the 2013 Character Battle despite the absurd size of the bracket and some of the utter crap that did make it in. It didn’t make it into the 2015 Games Contest either, and it’s only here as a 14 seed.

On the other hand, we saw Monster Hunter 4 Ultimate make it into the 2015 Games Contest and lose to Suikoden II, which is not a good thing. Is Monster Hunter: World stronger than that? I have no idea (get used to hearing me say that, at least during round 1!). If Bravely Default actually had the Final Fantasy name in it, I might be tempted to take it here, but I think I’ll just stick with the higher seed here.

Leonhart’s Vote: Bravely Default

Leonhart’s Prediction: Monster Hunter: World with 56.94%

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Kleenex’s Analysis

This match really got me thinking - how many games in the bracket have a colon in the title? Turns out the answer is 38. GameFAQs loves colons. You know what GameFAQs doesn’t love? Monster Hunter. MH:W seemed fairly popular when it came out two years ago, certainly the biggest a MonHun game has hit in the states so far, but I’m not sure the audience here really cares anymore. Bravely Default is definitely more in this site’s wheelhouse, but like many games in this bracket...it just doesn’t seem that popular here? If the name of the game was SquareEnix’s Bravely Default: Flying Fairy, or Bravely Default: Flynal Fantasairy, I’d feel pretty good about it winning. As it is, it’s kind of an obtuse title that I don’t think too many people care about, despite there just being a Nintendo Direct a few days ago that featured the sequel.

This is a long-winded way of me saying that yes, once again, I think name recognition wins out here, which means Monster Hunter takes this in a slim victory.

Kleenex’s Prediction: Monster Hunter: World with 53.25%

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Guest’s Analysis - Kotetsu534

Okay, so we have a Square RPG released 6 years ago with a really silly name for the 3DS going up against a major Capcom RPG that's shifted nigh 15m copies since 2018. So, since this is GameFAQs, this'll probably be pretty close!

And indeed, looking back at old polls, I see that Bravely Default actually won two polls as our most anticipated game of early 2014! Unfortunately, it didn't do as well after people actually played it - it lost to South Park in the GOTYs, suggesting it flew right over our heads.

Monster Hunter really isn't our cup of tea - MH4 got rocked by Suikoden II back in 2015. But that's an old JRPG that actually has some respect, which I don't think Bravely Default really commands. MH World looked pretty poor against half decent competition in the 2018 GOTYs, but it'll probably get a bit more respect as a noteworthy game from voters who've never played either entrant. I reckon it pulls through comfortably, if not by default. Let's say...

Monster Hunter: World - 56.77%

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Crew Consensus: MonHun slays Bravely Default

Too bad that I have played like two games from the first round list xD So, I picked everything at random.

Master Moltar posted...

Kleenex’s Analysis

This match really got me thinking - how many games in the bracket have a colon in the title? Turns out the answer is 38. GameFAQs loves colons. You know what GameFAQs doesn’t love? Monster Hunter. MH:W seemed fairly popular when it came out two years ago, certainly the biggest a MonHun game has hit in the states so far, but I’m not sure the audience here really cares anymore. Bravely Default is definitely more in this site’s wheelhouse, but like many games in this bracket...it just doesn’t seem that popular here?

Monster Hunter is a JRPG series, which immediately puts it into this site's wheelhouse. It might not as popular as some other JRPG series on this site, but Monster Hunter: World has the advantage of being the first mainstream game outside of Japan from this series. With great JRPGs being extremely rare over the past decade, if a legitimately great JRPG is ever released, the site will flock to it to satisfy their JRPG urge.

I need the curse up and running for this one

Bravely Default has an ok chance of winning, maybe like 20%

Monster Hunter should break 60% easily. If anything it should push for 70%.

I want to say to the Crew that you are doing an excellent work as always. Happy to read your analysis after all these years. Also we already have a crew split on the first day? Damn!

LusterSoldier posted...

Monster Hunter is a JRPG series, which immediately puts it into this site's wheelhouse. It might not as popular as some other JRPG series on this site, but Monster Hunter: World has the advantage of being the first mainstream game outside of Japan from this series. With great JRPGs being extremely rare over the past decade, if a legitimately great JRPG is ever released, the site will flock to it to satisfy their JRPG urge.

Eh I've seen playthrough of MH and it doesn't really play like a standard JRPG. It's more like a wilderness simulator with some RPG mechanics.

this new start time is weird. nothing like fresh analysis of the number of colons in game titles to start off the day!

ZeldaTPLink posted...

Eh I've seen playthrough of MH and it doesn't really play like a standard JRPG. It's more like a wilderness simulator with some RPG mechanics.

Yeah, I suppose so. Monster Hunter doesn't have that anime art style going for it like most JRPGs, so it doesn't feel like a JRPG just from playing it.

transience posted...

this new start time is weird. nothing like fresh analysis of the number of colons in game titles to start off the day!

It's the same start time we had for the last contest.

is it? my memory must be going in old age

Don't forget that Bravely Default II was just announced yesterday! Upset alert!

that was announced a while ago! the demo came out yesterday

Well, the first real info about it dropped yesterday!

Round 1 – Sekiro: Shadows Die Twice vs. Ni no Kuni: Wrath of the White Witch

Moltar’s Analysis

Similar to the previous match, Ni no Kuni at its peak had some strength. Since 2013 though, it’s fallen completely off the face of the Earth, and most people didn’t even care about the sequel that came out in 2018.

Sekiro wins this by just being recent and relevant, which it showed in its decent GotY performance a few months ago.

Moltar’s Bracket: Sekiro: Shadows Die Twice

Moltar’s Prediction: Sekiro: Shadows Die Twice – 63%

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transience’s Analysis

Sekiro really doesn't seem like this site's kind of game, but the 2019 GOTY poll pretty much proves me wrong. I still do kinda think that the 2019 GOTY polls have made average games look like kings because the competition is so bad, but still, that's better than I would have expected. I guess I should admit the obvious - that this site likes From Software games and that Sekiro has that Dark Souls DNA that attracts people in waves.

I don't think very highly of Ni No Kuni. You can look at its previous results and talk yourself into it, maybe even get a little upset train going in your head. I don't believe in it though. I think it's liked amongst the big RPG heads but that group is pretty small these days. This isn't like the early days of this site when everyone played all the Legend of Dragoons and Parasite Eves of the world. I don't think it's as bad as recent Tales, but I don't think it's super far off. I'll take Sekiro to take this one fairly easily even though I don't think highly of it.

transience's prediction: Sekiro with 60.04%
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Leonhart’s Analysis

Ni no Kuni is in a similar position to Bravely Default. It did well in its GOTY poll, but it didn’t manage to get into the 2015 contest, so it makes me think its popularity has waned over time. The main character, Oliver, did get into the 2013 Character Battle, but he still lost easily to a Wesker that was getting SFF’d by Leon Kennedy. This was when the game was brand spanking new, too, so he’d probably do worse now.

We often talk about how GameFAQs is stuck in the past and older is better, but I think that really only applies to the ‘90s and maybe the early ‘00s. I think in the case of this contest, the fact that Sekiro is still relatively recent and hasn’t largely been forgotten about will help it here. I think age only helps if you’re the type of game people will get nostalgic about, and I don’t think Ni no Kuni is one of those games.

Leonhart’s Vote: Sekiro: Shadows Die Twice

Leonhart’s Prediction: Sekiro: Shadows Die Twice with 60.10%
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Kleenex’s Analysis

The assault of the colons continues. In my head, this one seems fairly clear-cut. Sekiro is a recent game that had pretty positive reception. Ni no Kuni is almost 10 years old (yes I know it had a remake/master last year, WHATEVER). It’s really hard to gauge most of these games given we have almost no data on most of them, perhaps aside from a small handful of GotY polls, but my gut is telling me that recency is enough to take Sekiro in a battle of two games that are probably both fairly weak.

I feel like on paper this one should be more interesting than it’s appearing to me, so I guess look for Sekiro to actually get blown out or something.

Kleenex’s Prediction: Sekiro: Shadows Die Twice with 59.75%
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Guest’s Analysis - SuperNiceDog

I had never heard of Sekiro upon seeing the bracket for the first time. I had heard of Ni no Kuni before. That was what led me to pick Ni no Kuni easily on my first run going through the bracket. Then... I started listening to "The Show" and doing some minor research on the topic...

Sekiro is apparently fairly popular as an action game? I just think it's too generic. It reminds me a lot of those Prince of Persia games from the 2000s that were fairly popular but people barely remember now.

Meanwhile, Ni No Kuni is a more Gamefaqs type game. Classic JRPG(mostly), very niche, yet reviewed very well when it first came out. My brother even played it! That alone was enough to swing me. When I think Gamefaqs, I think RPGs. Granted this might be old school thinking, but it's worked in the past. I might be wrong on this, but I know Ni No Kuni has at least a 20% chance of winning this match. Enough for me to just go for it. Enough factors lead me to believe that it can pull off the impossible. And it's just a beautiful game!



Since it's within the margin of error, I'll just roll with it. Yea I know Sekiro will probably win with like 54%, but whatever.

Ni No Kuni: Wrath of the White Witch wins with 50.4%

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Crew Consensus: Sekiro is favored by the regulars, but our Guest thinks otherwise.

if I get the point for Sekiro it'll be a miracle

good job guest

I think I'd sooner expect a 75%+ victory for Sekiro than a ni no kuni win

Round 1 – The Walking Dead: A Telltale Games Series vs. Bastion

Moltar’s Analysis

Bastion’s 2011 GotY showing was pitiful. Walking Dead might have gotten walked all over in its 2015 Contest showing when it got doubled by Uncharted 2, but even that was a better performance than less than 3% in a 6-way poll.

Both games are going to be weak, but the theme I’m sticking with here is relevance. Walking Dead is far more respected and relevant in 2020 than Bastion, which came and went. Until a result that proves otherwise happens, I’m sticking with this line of thought.

Moltar’s Bracket: The Walking Dead: A Telltale Games Series

Moltar’s Prediction: The Walking Dead: A Telltale Games Series – 62%

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transience’s Analysis

Are people talking up Bastion because Hollow Knight is killing it today? Or because Life is Strange is going down softly to a low-tier Halo game? I could see someone making the case, but even as someone who picked Hollow Knight to win handily, I can't see Bastion doing the same. Bastion is a little older and isn't revered in quite the same way that Hollow Knight is, and also, Tales is just weak. Be careful about drawing one match conclusions. I would love it if all the indie games could rise up and show these mediocre narrative games what's up, but it isn't going to happen on a global scale like that.

The Walking Dead isn't super strong, but that game, the first season, is really beloved. Of all the Telltale games (that's a genre now, not a developer), Walking Dead stands a clear step above all of the rest. I do worry that subsequent seasons have weakened the power that the first season had, but I think Walking Dead has enough to push past a dated indie game, one that is liked but not loved.

transience's prediction: The Walking Dead with 59.65%

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Leonhart’s Analysis

At one point, The Walking Dead was a gaming phenomenon. It was widely acclaimed and respected all over the place. It won a ton of Game of the Year awards. It didn’t enjoy the same level of popularity here because visual novels aren’t our jam. It got doubled by Uncharted 2 in 2015 (which was similarly acclaimed and respected all over the place, so I could see people defaulting to it over Walking Dead if they hadn’t played either game). Lee Everett lost a close one to Mr. Game & Watch and Clementine got rocked by Spyro the friggin’ Dragon (although she still doubled Reyn Time, which reminds me that I actually picked Reyn to win that match, yikes!).

That being said, I think Walking Dead shouldn’t have too much trouble with Bastion. In situations where voters haven’t played either game, I think people will default to the game they’ve heard of or the game that garnered respect as a great game this past decade. Walking Dead has the advantage over Bastion in both departments there. I don’t think it has too much trouble here.

Leonhart’s Vote: The Walking Dead

Leonhart’s Prediction: The Walking Dead with 64.34%

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Kleenex’s Analysis

I don’t have much faith in The Walking Dead: A Telltale Games Series being worth all that much, but I can’t imagine Bastion having any shot here. We have seen The Walking Dead: A Telltale Games Series in the last games contest, and it didn’t do great, but at least it made it. We also saw The Walking Dead: A Telltale Games Series’s characters Lee and Clementine do...okay-ish back in 2013. Lee almost beat a Smash character! Neither of these games is particularly relevant these days, but I feel like The Walking Dead: A Telltale Games Series at least occupies a slightly larger space in the public consciousness than Bastion does in the year 2020. Either one of these games get squashed next round, but I expect The Walking Dead: A Telltale Games Series to make it through without too much issue.

Kleenex’s Prediction: The Walking Dead: A Telltale Games Series with 62%

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Guest’s Analysis - tennisboy213

A game I've only ever heard of from VGMC vs. a game with a TV show? Easy choice for me, although I expect it to be semi-close. Is this write-up too short? Nah, no one knows anything about this contest.

The Walking Dead - 57%

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Crew Consensus: Walking Dead walks tall into Round 2.

I think I feel good having the highest prediction on this one

Yeah, I wouldn't be surprised if Bastion got wrecked here.

Kleenex was delirious when he wrote this batch of writeups

This is only the beginning

oh god we have 120 of these to go

covid-19 more like kleenex-19

Listen, it's hard to write four of these things a day!

I have to keep myself amused somehow

you should learn from our friend tennisboy213 about how to pace yourself

I try to write a division at a time when we get to the beginning of the division before.

I like to write them after I see the previous match. I try to do it once the dust has settled before bed, which works out great for me.

I used to do them during downtime at work to kill time, but now it's all home all the time!

Crew Curse, Bastion's got this.

I need to go back and try to beat Bastion one of these days.

Walking Dead, too, I guess.

I tried the demo for Bastion and thought it was fine, so I bought it

I don't see Walking Dead breaking 60%. I just don't think it's going to be that strong. It was definitely a lot more respected when it came out than it is now. I also can't see it being in actual danger of losing though!

LusterSoldier posted...

Monster Hunter is a JRPG series, which immediately puts it into this site's wheelhouse. It might not as popular as some other JRPG series on this site, but Monster Hunter: World has the advantage of being the first mainstream game outside of Japan from this series. With great JRPGs being extremely rare over the past decade, if a legitimately great JRPG is ever released, the site will flock to it to satisfy their JRPG urge.

True, but its opponent is also a JRPG, and while SE hasn't exactly been lighting it up lately either, this was more of a throwback to their earlier days than it was something new, and even modern SE I'd probably take over anything related to Capcom after the way they bombed all over the place last contest. The "handheld vs. console" evens it out, so I could certainly see MH winning, but I feel like this is a debatable match and would be very surprised if it wasn't close.

I need to play Bastion. I played another game from the same studio (Transitor) which has similar gameplay and it's really fucking good.

Bastion is pretty good. (Walking Dead is better)

None of you mentioned Studio Ghibli, I am disappointed.

Round 1 – Dragon Quest XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age vs. The Legend of Heroes: Trails in the Sky SC

Moltar’s Analysis

Congrats on getting Trails in the Sky into the Contest B8!

…

That’s really the best thing that can be said about it Dairy Queen XI isn’t going to have any problem here. Trails dedicated fanbase should keep it under a tripling, but DQ should put up at least 70% here to look good to go far in this division.

Moltar’s Bracket: Dragon Quest XI

Moltar’s Prediction: Dragon Quest XI – 72%

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transience’s Analysis

This feels like the only really clear match in terms of results. Trails really has a strong following and I would have picked it over a lot of the other middling JRPGs in division 1, but it's not nearly good enough to hang with a big series like Dragon Quest. Dragon Quest put Persona 3 down once upon a time, and while 11 isn't as good as 8, Trails isn't close to being on Persona's level.

I'm really interested to see how this one goes. DQ could do bad things to Trails but I feel like fans of that game will never abandon it, making DQ look kinda bad going into round 2. DQ will want to keep pace with Monster Hunter and Sekiro to remain the slight favourite to get the honor of getting absolutely blitzed by Breath of the Wild. I hope DQ goes big here, but I dunno.

transience's prediction: Dragon Quest XI with 71.04%

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Leonhart’s Analysis

Oh hey, Trails in the Sky SC was my special rally project for this contest, so I’m glad to see it here, even if it’s a match it has no shot at winning. I actually have a lot of respect for Dragon Quest XI’s potential strength in this contest. Dragon Quest VIII has done decently in the past, and I think there’s a good chance that DQXI has surpassed it in strength, especially with the recent Switch version. I don’t think it should struggle too much for the first couple rounds at least, so I’ll be interested to see how high it can go. At the same time, I’m hoping that Trails SC can at least put up a semi-respectable performance here!

Leonhart’s Vote: Trails in the Sky SC

Leonhart’s Prediction: Dragon Quest XI with 68.76%

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Kleenex’s Analysis

Boy that’s a mouthful. Did you know both of these games have exactly 33 letters in their titles? I was all prepared to make a joke about how Dragon Quest was going to win because it had a longer name and now I have nothing.

I know a lot of y’all around these parts love you some Trails, but this is just about the most rotten matchup the game could have gotten. There’s plenty of other places in the bracket where I probably would have given it a fighting chance. While DQ isn’t necessarily the top rung of RPGs on the site, it is easily one of the most recognizable and popular games in the bracket. It’s probably going to crush Trails with no remorse. Once again, Estelle cannot be saved. RIP.

Kleenex’s Prediction: Dragon Quest XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age with 68.50%

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Guest’s Analysis - Sniperdog117

Happy to finally do one of these after all these years, and the match involves one of my favorite games of the decade! Sadly, Trails games aren’t worth much on GameFAQs, and SC is not going to be any different. Being mostly associated with PC and the Vita does not help. I don’t think they’ll ever win a contest match unless it's against fodder.

And then there’s the fact DQXI did (relatively) really well in the GotY polls, and was ported to the Switch (please port all of The Legend of Heroes to Switch btw, not just Cold Steel III) so there is zero chance of SC winning. But uh, Estelle avoided the doubling by Issac, so maybe it won’t get completely trashed? That’s all I can think of in SC’s favor.

DQXI- 68%

Trails in the Sky SC- 32%
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Crew Consensus: Dragon Quest levels up to 2.

wow, low picks all around. Moltar has this point going away, probably.

I feel like we're going to under shoot a lot in round 1 because we'd rather err on the side of going too low than too high.

LeonhartFour posted...

good job guest

thanks homie!

Leonhart4 posted...

I feel like we're going to under shoot a lot in round 1 because we'd rather err on the side of going too low than too high.

I think part of it is we have no idea what the strength of most of these contestants are. Dragon Quest XI has no place breaking 70% in a contest match under normal circumstances.

Leonhart4 posted...

I feel like we're going to under shoot a lot in round 1 because we'd rather err on the side of going too low than too high.

I'm already operating under the assumption that many of these round 1 matches won't even be close, with a good number of them being a doubling or worse. Certainly working out very well for my Oracle predictions for BotW and FFXV where I'm off by less than 0.50%, and even I'm off by less than 3% on the one match that's less than 60% right now.

WarThaNemesis2 posted...

I think part of it is we have no idea what the strength of most of these contestants are. Dragon Quest XI has no place breaking 70% in a contest match under normal circumstances.

Oh yeah, no doubt. We're just guessing here, and so we tend to guess lower when we don't know what we're doing!

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You always know a Guest Writeup is doomed when they post a picture related to the game/character/whatever in the writeup to get everyone hyped for their pick.