Character Battle X Contest Analysis Crew - Part 9 GameFAQs Contests
- Master Moltar (38)
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Looks like I haven't missed much. |
yeah,
this is the end of the bad matchups for a while though. we should have
at least four interesting matchups in a row after this. (I have no idea
how to gauge zelda vs. mario) Leon, feel free to throw your stats up as conversation fodder if you're so inclined xyzzy |
not sure if a routine Link win over Cloud is too interesting but we’ll see! |
I'm just curious to see what the gap is these days. It could be 53/47 like always or it could be 60/40. |
that matchup will always be interesting regardless of how much Link wins by. xyzzy |
I'd
be more surprised by Cloud keeping Link under 55 than I would be Link
breaking 60 after seeing how FF7's top non-Cloud have done against
Samus/Mario. https://imgur.com/M1heX2g RIP Paul Bearer. Ohhhh nooooo. :( |
(Crono vs. Mario is the same - Mario wins now and forevermore but I'd still be game to see it happen) xyzzy |
Well,
the one thing that might be different about Link/Cloud now is that Link
might actually be the more anti-voted character of the two these days. |
Leon hit me up. Let's say Cloud gets 47% on Ol' Linky. What does Sephiroth need on Bowser for Samus = Link? https://imgur.com/M1heX2g RIP Paul Bearer. Ohhhh nooooo. :( |
....Why do I feel like I've opened Pandora's Box? https://imgur.com/M1heX2g RIP Paul Bearer. Ohhhh nooooo. :( |
Slow day, so random side thought time: Is Tifa>Sephiroth one of the most nonsensical results we've had in years? There's been shockers but most of them are explainable by rallies, LFF, shifting character strength, ect. With Tifa>Sephiroth it's less about explaining it and more about rationalizing it. It goes against all standards of GameFAQs common sense. Samus>Mario would top it but that's going to fall short. Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
Zelda to the top 5 is up there for me. xyzzy |
KamikazePotato posted... Is Tifa>Sephiroth one of the most nonsensical results we've had in years? Bowser/Kirby? |
WarThaNemesis2 posted... Leon hit me up. Depends on which matches you want to use, but I'll give Samus the most favorable one (the Bowser derived from Cloud/Alucard and Bowser/Alucard and the Seph derived through Samus/Tifa): If Samus = Link, Sephy gets 50.16% on Bowser. (edited 12/5/2018 9:30:23 PM) |
KamikazePotato posted... Samus>Mario would top it but that's going to fall short. Samus > Mario would make a lot of sense... All the stars in the sky are waiting for you. |
LeonhartFour posted... WarThaNemesis2 posted...Leon hit me up. What's the least favorable Samus look like, for argument's sake? (also to give me a comical range to work with) https://imgur.com/M1heX2g RIP Paul Bearer. Ohhhh nooooo. :( (edited 12/5/2018 9:31:53 PM) |
WarThaNemesis2 posted... What's the least favorable Samus look like, for argument's sake? Sephiroth gets 54.96% on Bowser which means Crono > Sephiroth is on the table too...! |
I
know there’s been some talk about it in the stats topic and while my
view is not nearly as cynical as some have put forward, the women this
year truly have looked better across the board. Zelda, Samus, Tifa, 2B,
Chun Li - even one-round winners like Velvet, Aya and Terra - I think
there’s something to be said for that. |
Zelda's run is nuts but after Breath of the Wild it's...possible? If she beats Mario I'll probably think differently. Bowser>Kirby is, well, maybe Kirby wasn't as good as we thought or something. Also Hierarchy. Still seems less out there than Sephiroth cleanly losing to someone from his own game that he used to be like three steps above. Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
Well
yeah, we've rarely seen a fall from grace like Sephiroth's, and he's
still stronger than 90-95% of the characters in the contest, which is a
testament to how strong he truly used to be. |
Based
on the current results at 10:35 PM, Snake should have gotten 60.25% on
Auron based on Sonic/Snake and Sonic/Auron. So it appears that Snake
overperformed by about 1% on Auron, meaning Auron's sprite hurt him more
than Snake's sprite. Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as BK_Sheikah00, Guru Champ! |
The Mana Sword posted... I know there’s been some talk about it in the stats topic and while my view is not nearly as cynical as some have put forward, the women this year truly have looked better across the board. Zelda, Samus, Tifa, 2B, Chun Li - even one-round winners like Velvet, Aya and Terra - I think there’s something to be said for that. There was one post someone made earlier (forget who it was) that summarized things nicely: female characters are overall more appreciated than they used to be. I think that's true of gaming in general, and not just GameFAQs. Whatever way you decide to spin that is your call (but you probably shouldn't spin it like some people are trying to). Black Turtle did a pretty good job. (edited 12/5/2018 9:36:54 PM) |
I wouldn't buy that at all. not on this website with this resistant crowd, anyway. xyzzy |
I realize this is a terrible idea, but look at these polls: https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3636-when-creating-a-custom-game-character-which-gender-do-you https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6262-when-creating-a-custom-game-character-which-gender-do-you Maybe people just...like women in their vidya games more now? https://imgur.com/M1heX2g RIP Paul Bearer. Ohhhh nooooo. :( |
transience posted... I wouldn't buy that at all. not on this website with this resistant crowd, anyway. It could partly be that the site's getting older too. Back when they were teenagers, girls were gross, but now that's not as much the case anymore. All the stars in the sky are waiting for you. |
Crew Predictions: 120/138 Crew Prediction Challenge: Monika: 117 transience: 116 Kleenex: 112 Leonhart: 111 Guest: 108 Crew Accuracy Challenge: transience gets the point for Zelda, MetalmindStats gets the point for Mario, spooky96 gets the point for Mega Man, and Leonhart gets the point for Crono. transience: 34 Guest: 33 (BetrayedTangy, SuperNiceDog (4), pjbasis, garetha200 (4), ZenOfThunder, Ranticoot (2), Hbthebattle (2), NowItsAngeTime, spooky96 (3), RoseChevalier, Lopen (2), paulg235 (3), DoctorJimmy133, Janus5k, BT, TsunamiXXVIII, ctesjbuvf (2), MetalmindStats (2)) Kleenex: 30 Monika: 22 Leonhart: 20 Moltar Status: contest hype Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
I feel like Moltar and I will go the same way on every match going forward with the possible exception of Crono/Mega Man that could be the one that decides if he wins xyzzy |
boy I really blew that accuracy challenge my reluctance to use decimal places definitely cost me a few points |
Hot runback X-Stats Mega Man – 50.00% Pikachu – 49.33% Yoshi – 44.59% Zero – 42.86% Ganondorf – 39.35% Vivi – 37.81% Knuckles the Echidna – 37.59% Kratos – 36.10% Dante – 34.31% Wario – 34.07% Donkey Kong – 34.04% Scorpion – 33.14% Zidane Tribal – 32.48% Chun-Li – 32.33% Leon Kennedy – 30.18% Tidus – 29.32% Spyro the Dragon – 28.35% Master Hand – 26.60% Velvet Crowe – 26.19% Monika – 24.14% Lightning – 23.59% Shantae – 22.95% Noctis Lucis Caelum – 22.58% Primrose – 22.13% James Sunderland – 20.41% Cuphead – 19.50% John Marston – 19.37% Yu Narukami – 18.99% Dragonborn – 18.90% Aya Brea – 18.57% Neku Sakuraba – 16.84% Victor Sullivan – 15.02% Chloe Price – 12.18% |
oh man I just realized I got Crono/Bowser exactly that should be worth like 10 accuracy points imhotbqh |
Mac Arrowny posted... transience posted...I wouldn't buy that at all. not on this website with this resistant crowd, anyway. I think it's a mix of us getting older and pop culture generally being more used to female characters in lead roles, imo. |
but
you’re talking about Zelda and Tifa and Chun Li. they’re not exactly in
lead roles. I guess Terra kind of is? I would believe that if we
actually had strong women characters do well here. we have Bayonetta and
maybe 2B? ehh. add the c and back away iphonesience |
"Maybe
2B"? She might be the strongest 21th century character in the bracket.
And Bayonetta did super well too. Never mind Samus who could be the #2
character in the site. Zelda doesn't have a lead role per se, but people like her because she got a lot of character development... which is also a modern trend. I don't want to make this a debate about feminism btw... just describing what seems to be a trend. You give a girl more dialogue and things to do and suddenly she is more popular. While before, characters like Peach and Zelda existed solely to be saved by the hero. One thing that caught my attention is that I used to hear the term SexistFAQs describing some match results, and that just vanished. It's all about TJF and Waifufactor and stuff now. |
Tifa
beating Seph feels like two sides of the same coin. We grew up, so edgy
badasses like Seph are not that appealing anymore. On the other hand,
characters who just have good story or personality like I guess Tifa
does (never played the game) appeal more, because we are looking for
different things now. (That, and TJF/Waifu factor too, ofc) (edited 12/6/2018 6:18:07 AM) |
Actually only TFJ/Waifu factor. So why we exist? What happens when we stop existing? |
I dunno I have a hard time believing we are more horny now than we were as teenagers. |
But it is true. Look at all the fan art, the hentai and the waifu/husbando topics/sites/art. Seriously. So why we exist? What happens when we stop existing? |
I can't say for everyone, but I'm much hornier now than a few years ago when I was a teenager |
Safer_777 posted... But it is true. Look at all the fan art, the hentai and the waifu/husbando topics/sites/art. Seriously. There's been as much Tifa hentai and fanart as you can take for as long as this website has been around. Sephiroth just fell out of fashion. "We'll tell the customers that the features promised are in a place outside of Heaven now" -- GransonEx |
Legends Bracket: Round 3 – Link vs. Cloud Strife Monika’s Analysis Link Legends Round 1 - 79.64% vs. Ganondorf Legends Round 2 - 68.41% vs. Pikachu Cloud Legends Round 1 - 60.40% vs. Alucard Legends Round 2 - 56.73% vs. Crono We’ve seen this match enough to know how it plays out by now without explaining why it will in 10,000 words. There was a time way back when these two were close in strength, but since 2004, Link has been the top dog. Now, the gap should be larger than ever because Link is still very relevant. He’s coming off of Breath of the Wild, plus the site is skewing towards Nintendo with Smash coming out. Cloud doesn’t seem to be the #2 guy and more like a mid-Noble Nine character. Maybe since it’s Link/Cloud, it’ll be close like it always has been. The times have changed though. Monika’s Voting Tip of the Day: I don’t have any rivals! I just get rid of anyone that opposes me, ahaha! Gosh, I sounded like a real villain there! Monika’s Prediction of the Day: Link – 57% ...That's my advice for today! Thanks for listening~ no space all business |
transience’s Analysis By my math, this is the 13th Link vs. Cloud matchup in contest history. 14 if you include that stupid rivalry rumble but fortunately no one does. That contest sucked bad. Cloud won the first matchup and Link is 11-0 since. This honestly hasn't been a 'rivalry' since, oh, 2007 or so. Then again, the two haven't really matched up since 2010 since Cloud lost to a random Pokemon during the great weirdness of 2013. Sometimes crazy contest results make them less memorable because I have absolutely no memory of that happening. There was a weird result every other day towards the end of that goofy contest. Draven didn't kill that contest - Pokemon killing off legends left and right did. I don't mind a good Pokemon result but it can't be every match! Anyway, back to Link and Cloud. There's really only two ways that Link drops this. One is if people are just so sick of Link winning that they mass vote for Cloud, the only guy who's ever truly been able to stand up to the king. Dravens and L-Blocks don't count. The only true contest loss Link ever had was Cloud, and it was back in Bush's first term. The other is if an absolutely monster FF7 remake trailer drops during tonight's Game Awards. I honestly don't even think that would move the needle enough - there's just too much of a gap. You would need a Cloud vs. Sephiroth battle in the Nibelheim fire to even get close. Oh, and I guess Smash 5 technically comes out at the end of this match too. Yeah, you can cross that one off. They'll hide FF7R away until KH3 is out so that fans pay attention to that game. (The actual game to watch out for there is Metroid Prime 4 as Samus's final weapon vs. Mario.) Cloud may have his best start ever tonight as anti-Link sentiment is strong with the early vote this year. It might even counteract Cloud's decades-long awful opening minutes! I kinda feel like Crono and Mega Man is a tossup, while Link put 68% on Pikachu and Cloud put 56% on Crono. There could be some Nintendo overlap there with Pikachu but it would have to be really significant for Cloud to get within a couple of percentage points. I'll give Cloud the benefit of the doubt of keeping it close because it's the classic Link vs. Cloud matchup, but this probably isn't ever in doubt. I think people feel like Cloud is closer to the #5 character right now than #1. transience's prediction: Link with 56.61% Leonhart’s Analysis There have only been two Character Battles where we haven’t seen Link vs. Cloud in some form: 2002 and 2013. You know the drill at this point. The gap between the two is probably the biggest it’s been since the first contest. The only possible difference is that Link might actually be the more anti-voted character of the two at this point. As such, I wouldn’t be surprised if Cloud holds up better than most people expect, or Link might just blow him out of the water like how OoT nearly 60/40’d FFVII in that bonus poll in 2015. Unfortunately, he can’t actually win here, but I am intrigued to see what the final margin looks like. Leonhart’s Vote: Cloud Strife Leonhart’s Prediction: Link with 54.54% no space all business |
Kleenex’s Analysis I can’t shake the feeling I’ve seen this match before. Oh, that’s right, now I remember. https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/1365-tournament-semifinal-link-vs-cloud-strife https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/1780-tournament-final-link-vs-cloud-strife https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2129-tournament-of-champions-semifinal-link-vs-cloud-strife https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2566-battle-royale-final https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3856-contest-final-link-vs-cloud-strife Not even counting the times they clashed in the 4-way contests. This match has gotten progressively worse for Cloud each time, minus a very minor upswing in 2010, and I don’t see that trend reversing. Link has had Cloud’s number ever since that first match, and he still does. The only question about the match today is if we’ll see these two again in the grand finals. Mario and Samus both looked very good, and they have a good shot at upsetting Cloud in the loser’s bracket if he doesn’t show up today. If he can keep this around the usual 46%-47%, I think he’s still the favorite to make it to the finals to lose to Link again, but if he start pushing things close to 40%, then it’s going to be a bad time for him once he runs into the other Nintendo dudes. Kleenex’s Prediction: Link with 55% Crew Consensus: Link beats Cloud….again no space all business |
how did Guest not write up Link vs. Cloud of all matches xyzzy |
I
can't see Cloud breaking 45% here. I feel like there has to be a solid
gap (like 55-45) between Link and Samus/Mario, and then I look at 59% on
Sephiroth vs. 60% on Alucard and while Alucard actually being close to
Sephiroth would be awesome, that big of a Sephiroth drop should
logically hurt Cloud too, right? The only thing I have for 'oh Cloud will do okay' is it being Cloud, and Tifa/Sephiroth showed that 'being X character' isn't nearly enough. Hell, FREAKING MARIO isn't enough to bury Samus to the point where a rematch post-Smash Ultimate and possibly a Prime 4 trailer can't have the Samus win be entertained. https://imgur.com/M1heX2g RIP Paul Bearer. Ohhhh nooooo. :( |
Link
should definitely go close to 60 on Cloud but there's just something
about the Link/Cloud matchup that makes me pause before going that high. xyzzy |
I mean if Guest doesn't show up you can just have what I posted be Guest write-up I guess and go with Link with 59%. https://imgur.com/M1heX2g RIP Paul Bearer. Ohhhh nooooo. :( (edited 12/6/2018 4:19:57 PM) |
Guest is really slacking this year. Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
Lopen's unofficial analysis x1 Cool one a day. Does that mean I'm going to start putting effort in? Probably not. Theory is that Link has boosted. Theory is also that Cloud may have deboosted. Practice we don't really know either of those yet. Cloud's number on Crono wasn't bad, and Alucard has looked good all contest. Ganondorf and Pika are SFF matches so ??? I have my doubts Link will hang super high numbers on non-Nintendo people. Ganondorf holding his own vs the 2004 match makes me think he's getting anti-voted in a non negligible way this year and Pikachu... well, who knows. Anyway yeah this match has almost always been 54-46 or closer so I'm just gonna go around that despite the apparent Seph drop and Zelda rise. Link with 54.95% No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
Well guest better hope the real guest shows up because apparently I sandwiched guest pretty hard there. No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
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