Samus has to get by Tifa first

10% swingaround, let's do this
Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
transience posted...
I can't hate the writeup but it kinda begs of question of why sign up? I can't say I mind though

No one else wants to do it so I might as well. There really isn't much time for me to do a proper writeup, and it's a rematch.
(edited 12/4/2018 7:40:59 PM)report
Well, this is really good news for Snake if nothing else.

Maybe Samus, too, since this would be enough of a swing for her to win a rematch.
snake isn’t getting another crack at zelda!
transience 12/4/2018 9:38:27 PM#259
so, statwise I guess we would use this result (if MM holds on -- not a guarantee) and go off of the Crono/Cloud matches, possibly adjusting Pikachu above him if need be depending on how other numbers look? I want to see every NNer get theirs back as a weird homage. that would mean Sonic beating Zelda though and he would have to beat Snake first.
xyzzy
transience 12/4/2018 9:53:08 PM#261
oh yeah

damn you zelda you ruin everything (sup tifa)
xyzzy
Just a friendly reminder that Link/Cloud and Mario/Zelda are running on separate days and are each the only match running on that day.
(edited 12/4/2018 11:32:05 PM)report
Mac Arrowny 12/5/2018 12:57:06 AM#263
Statwise setting MM = Pikachu would make the most sense I'd think?
All the stars in the sky are waiting for you.
Well, for all intents and purposes, they're practically equal, even if Mega Man wins this (and I think he will), so it won't be too far off.
dat 1% flip
add the c and back away
iphonesience
Lopen 12/5/2018 2:45:44 PM#267
Lopen's Unofficial Analysisx2

Sonic v Snake
Not much to say on this one but I was clearly wrong on my speculation on Sonic and Snake. They both buck the trends set by their contemporaries in the bracket. Snake being okay, and Sonic sucking. Ulti style blowout coming.

Solid Snake with 57.78%

Tifa v Samus
I could link the match, but that's more effort than I wanna put in. I'll just ballpark what they got last time.

Samus with 57.78%
No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
Averia 12/5/2018 2:46:42 PM#268
LeonhartFour posted...
Well, for all intents and purposes, they're practically equal, even if Mega Man wins this (and I think he will), so it won't be too far off.


At least the result is consistent.
If Pikachu had randomly got 40 or 60% this time, the stats would have just died.(even more than they already are)
e8G9dZb

17 years later...

ZVepOdE

.
drooling while eating
#270
(message deleted)
Losers Bracket: Round 2 – Sonic the Hedgehog vs. Solid Snake

Monika’s Analysis

Sonic
Legends Round 1 - 54.32% vs. Auron
Legends Round 2 - 43.55% vs. Zelda

Snake
Legends Round 1 - 49.68% vs. Zelda
Losers Round 1 - 61.48% vs. Auron

Those previous Legend and Losers matches speak for themselves here. Snake and Zelda are about equal, Sonic is a good deal behind them. I’d expect Snake to do about as well as Zelda did on Sonic.

Monika’s Voting Tip of the Day: Hedgehogs fighting snakes? I thought this was a Character Battle, not an animal battle!

Monika’s Prediction of the Day: Snake – 56%

...That's my advice for today! Thanks for listening~
no space
all business
transience’s Analysis

I had Sonic over Snake for most of the bracketmaking period.. in winners, of course, because I wasn't omniscient enough to see Zelda as a top 5 character coming. I've been thinking for the last couple of days how crazy it is that our true semifinal in this contest is Link, Cloud and Mario -- arguably the 3 most notable characters in contest history -- and Zelda. It's just weird.

Anyway, I was really down on Snake because he just feels so out of touch in 2018, but clearly it's Sonic who's actually the fallen idol. How many guys beat Sonic now? Kirby does. Bowser probably does. PIkachu does. Zelda already did. Luigi, X, Tifa, Alucard, Vivi -- where does it stop? I thought Sonic Mania might be enough to keep him relevant, but the more I think about it, the more I realize that Sonic (and MM11, for that matter) are only there for existing fans. I don't think Sonic Mania was converting regular people into being Sonic believers, nor was it really boosting him up in people's hierarchies. Opinions of Sonic are largely baked in at this point and it would take something truly revolutionary to change that. Snake can drop but unless he drops off the map, he's still better than Sonic.

I wonder how we feel if Snake beats Zelda's percentage here?

transience's prediction: Snake with 57.79%

Leonhart’s Analysis

Well, we’ve got two points of comparison for these two, and they both overwhelmingly favor Snake. Oddly enough, the match where Snake had his sprite against Auron projects a bigger win than the match with Zelda. Regardless of how you look at it, it’s hard to find an argument for Sonic winning or even keeping it all that close. They just haven’t been on the same level since Snake got into Smash, and that hasn’t changed.

Leonhart’s Vote: Solid Snake

Leonhart’s Prediction: Solid Snake with 56.95%

Kleenex’s Analysis

Not much to discuss here. Zelda crushed Sonic and went even with Snake. Sonic has looked like junk. I’m still not sure exactly where I put Snake in the NN rankings at this point, but it’s definitely ahead of Sonic. Gotta lose fast.

Kleenex’s Prediction: Snake with 56%

Crew Consensus: Snake does what Nintendid.
no space
all business
Losers Bracket: Round 2 – Samus Aran vs. Tifa Lockheart

Monika’s Analysis

Samus
Legends Round 1 - 58.93% vs. Tifa Lockheart
Legends Round 2 - 48.58% vs. Mario

Tifa
Legends Round 1 - 41.07% vs. Samus Aran
Losers Round 1 - 52.33% vs. Sephiroth

This contest is so nice to the Crew that it gave us a second chance to try and predict this match correctly! Boy would it look good if we nailed this match twice.

Of the matches today…







You're such a good listener.
I really love that about you.
Sometimes I'm afraid that I'm rambling or talking about boring things.
It makes me kind of self-conscious when I'm having conversation.
But I don't feel that way with you.
Like, I don't think anyone else could make me feel this way.
You really are special.
I don't want anyone to tell you otherwise.

Monika’s Voting Tip of the Day: Hey...! I don't think you should be doing that! You know what I'm talking about. I really caught you doing something naughty here.

Monika’s Prediction of the Day: Samus – 59%

...That's my advice for today! Thanks for listening~
no space
all business
transience’s Analysis

Unless the Sephiroth win put a massive bandwagon at Tifa's back, she's not turning this one around. Samus already had a super impressive performance against Mario, one that is beyond anything she should have reasonably been expected to do pre-contest. It's crazy to think that Samus > Mario is more likely than Tifa > Samus but it is. There are very, VERY few things amongst the NN that I would consider mortal locks but Mario > Samus is as close as I would get. I would sooner see Cloud beating Link than Mario over Samus pre-contest and yet here we are.

Just... don't do some weird zero suit picture. I can't take my queen struggling after coming so close to the promised land. If Samus beats Mario and faces Link in the final, you have to expect some kind of massive overperformance there, right? Especially when she gets a new game/remake/collection/whatever announced in two days OH YEAH MARIO IS GOING DOWN BELIEVE

transience's prediction: Samus with 58.11%

Leonhart’s Analysis

We’re seeing a couple of rematches right now. The result in the close match is flipping, but the result in the match that wasn’t very close is pretty much staying the same. I don’t know if Tifa will have any momentum from taking out Sephiroth, but even then, it won’t be worth enough for her to get close to Samus after how decisive their first match was. Tifa’s had a great contest, but this is sadly where it ends for her.

Leonhart’s Vote: Tifa Lockhart

Leonhart’s Prediction: Samus Aran with 58.17%

Kleenex’s Analysis

Samus looked pretty dang good against Mario. Tifa did great to take out Sephiroth and upend the Final Fantasy VII hierarchy, but I have a difficult time seeing her being able to flip this result. Samus has just looked too good, and reversing a 60-40 match doesn’t happen overnight (or three nights). Tifa has done great this year, but this is the end of the road.

Kleenex’s Prediction: Samus with 58%

Crew Consensus: Metroid Prime 4 when
no space
all business
Ranticoot 12/5/2018 3:46:32 PM#275
I have had a theory with Sonic

Mania definitely did boost Tails and Knuckles since that game put them in the limelight again. Sonic got a deboost from Forces (which he is still a focus of which Tails and Knuckles are not) and generally being at the forefront of all the problems (see: most things aside Mania, and the Sonic Boom cartoon which almost nobody on this site watched) people have had with the series since 2013. The meme is never that Tails or Knuckles were never good. It's always Sonic.

This idea (side characters still doing well because they aren't the frontrunner, main characters get all the backlash) has been brought up for other characters and it's about as convenient of an explanation as I can think of it.
Born to lose, live to win!
Again I couldn’t get my Crew Thing Done in time, sorry about that
Sonic vs. Snake

Here it is: This match is pretty cut and dry- 44 vs 49 on Zelda. Snake’s going to win here- the quest is by how much.

Snake: 54%
SmashBurb is a generic anime swordsman.
transience 12/5/2018 5:06:59 PM#277
I think we can safely throw out the idea of any revenge factor. both of these matches are within 1%.
xyzzy
th3l3fty 12/5/2018 5:18:18 PM#278
Crono might actually match his first percentage exactly
thelefty for analysis crew 2008 imo -transience
I have a third degree burn in flame-o-nomics -Sir Chris
Surskit 12/5/2018 5:38:52 PM#279
Oops, I didn't know this match was today! I signed up to the guest spot this morning.

Surskit's Last-Second Guest Write-Up

Here I am, repping for the guests. We just saw Mega Man win handily against the rat in its re-match, but we also just saw Bowser put up basically the exact same numbers against Crono. In other words, this match is a total waste, and there's nothing much to see.

So let's instead have fun and pretend that Tifa has been lurking in the shadows, just waiting to show her full power! 30 November was the last day of No Nut November, and the hentai fans were simply withholding from even looking at a pixelated picture of Tifa during the sprite round. This perfectly correlates with her performance against Sephty later. Indeed, today everything is different. The rallies are on, and they have valiantly assembled their forces to strike back against a woman who shamefully hides under the weight of a robotic suit. After pulling that ridiculous upset against Sephiroth, Tifa's fans are more determined than ever to keep her on the home page for as long as possible...!

Samus better be wearing her Varia Suit tight, folks! Tifa's revenge will be ever so sweet, as she manages to completely obliterate Samus by doing a whopping 1% better than in her last match!

Predix: Samus "Weaksauce" Aran - 57.93%
.-#Elements of Water#-.
transience 12/5/2018 6:00:48 PM#280
snaaaake you suck
xyzzy
are the samus and tifa pictures the literal same?

maybe this tifa one is more boobs I can't remember what her last one is anymore
does anyone even read this
What a weird first minute.
Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
snake_5036 12/5/2018 6:06:15 PM#283
KommunistKoala posted...
are the samus and tifa pictures the literal same?

maybe this tifa one is more boobs I can't remember what her last one is anymore

Tifa's is different, there's definitely a lot more titty here
You felt your sins weighing down on your neck.
transience 12/5/2018 6:13:47 PM#284
I'm not convinced there's a face in that picture
xyzzy
Master Moltar 12/5/2018 6:19:58 PM#285
samus powering up for that mario runback later
Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
transience 12/5/2018 6:20:25 PM#286
man, samus is going to kill snake

2006 redux
xyzzy
transience 12/5/2018 6:20:36 PM#287
also: totally rsff
xyzzy
transience posted...
man, samus is going to kill snake

2006 redux


At this point Snake matching his 2006 number would be a big Samus collapse.
https://imgur.com/M1heX2g
RIP Paul Bearer. Ohhhh nooooo. :(
There is no way this monster is weaker than Mario indirectly.
Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
KamikazePotato posted...
There is no way this monster is weaker than Mario indirectly.

No more of this KP
Communists
(edited 12/5/2018 6:41:46 PM)report
We'll stop it once Samus stops eviscerating people and then immediately losing the second she runs into the Hierarchy!
Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
Guys

Can Samus do the runback?
ZeldaTPLink posted...
Guys

Can Samus do the runback?

No
Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
KamikazePotato posted...
We'll stop it once Samus stops eviscerating people and then immediately losing the second she runs into the Hierarchy!

She’s currently dominating a non cloud FF7 character who beat sephiroth...some hierarchy!
Communists
Like that's probably the most hype match in history.

Imagine Samus coming off a bandwagon, after having destroyed Snake and Cloud, into a Mario who just got doubled by Link.
I have the same story with Crono in my bracket. But Samus is even more hype.
god sonic sucks

I might even take Sephiroth over him
The Ultimate Insult
If I only consulted the Gossip Stones like BKSheikah, instead of listening to Tingle, maybe I could have been the 2017 Guru Champ!
The_Ctes 12/5/2018 7:01:16 PM#299
For all we know, Tifa/Seph could be where all the rSFF is.
Ctesjbuvf posting on his phone.
Sami’s cancels out TJF
Communists

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