Character Battle X Contest Analysis Crew - Part 9 GameFAQs Contests

Big cut by Seph...!

'whoops' false alarm

transcience posted...

I’m super excited to see Cloud/Crono now. FF7, man, I have no idea

I'm hoping we don't get sprites again tomorrow and that sprites remain limited to Losers Round 1. With sprites, Crono would have a pic advantage there.

This might be the single result I most want to go show the 2005 board

Cloud's gonna stomp.

the trends in this match are so weird for characters in the same damn game

Tifa/Seph has been nearly a 50/50 match since around 2:00 AM. The trends up to this point remind me a bit of the MGS/MGS3 match in the 2015 contest:

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=6170&num=2

With that match, MGS3 built up its lead for the first 4 hours of the match and then it becomes a very drawn out 50/50 match from about 4:00 AM to 2:00 PM, after which MGS3 started gaining again with the ASV time period.

Yeah, I kind of expected that once everything settled down, Sephiroth would basically stall Tifa out for most of the match.

Now I want Pika to score like 45% on Link!

I guess this doesn’t break the numbers THAT bad. you guys expected Seph with 53% and he’ll get 48%.

Yeah this has become more sane. I expected Tifa to rSFF Sephiroth a bit as I don't think Seph with 52% makes his division line up quite right but ultimately this seems less weird than Bowser/Kirby, somehow.

Crew Predictions: 113/130

Crew Prediction Challenge:

Monika: 111
transience: 110
Kleenex: 105
Leonhart: 104
Guest: 101

Crew Accuracy Challenge: transience gets the point for Mega Man and Bowser.

transience: 32
Kleenex: 30
Guest: 30 (BetrayedTangy, SuperNiceDog (4), pjbasis, garetha200 (4), ZenOfThunder, Ranticoot (2), Hbthebattle (2), NowItsAngeTime, spooky96 (2), RoseChevalier, Lopen (2), paulg235 (3), DoctorJimmy133, Janus5k, BT, TsunamiXXVIII, ctesjbuvf, MetalmindStats)
Monika: 22
Leonhart: 18

Legends Bracket: Round 2 – Link vs. Pikachu

Monika’s Analysis

Link
Legends Round 1 - 79.64% vs. Ganondorf

Pikachu
Legends Round 1 - 50.11% vs. Mega Man

Link gets to beat down another Nintendo character yay! We all know who sits on the throne when it comes to this hierarchy.

The big question here is how resistant Pikachu will be to SFF. Link and the Zelda series have been known to shut down Mario, Metroid, Mega Man, and pretty much every other Nintendo franchise on this site in direct matches. The one series that has held up better than the rest is Pokemon.

Now, that’s not saying that Pikachu is going to completely resist SFF, because we are talking about the strongest character on the site here. I just think he’s going to hold up better than most other Nintendo characters would. Link can usually push into the low 60s on the top dogs like Mario and Samus, so if Pikachu can hang around there, that would be good enough for him.

Monika’s Voting Tip of the Day: Zelda and Pokemon are Nintendo classics! You can’t go wrong with either choice here!

Monika’s Prediction of the Day: Link – 64%

...That's my advice for today! Thanks for listening~

transience’s Analysis

How strong is Link? I have such a hard time with that question. I look at Zelda and go, holy crap, Link might just be unreal. But Link also has this always wins quality to him that probably stops him from totally killing a lower top 10 dude like Pikachu.

I hadn't really thought about it until after Pikachu beat Mega Man, but Pikachu's really hot right now. There's that movie that I had discounted earlier but the trailer literally has 50 million views. There's also that new game which isn't as good as a real game but Pikachu is the title character on one of the versions. This is a roundabout way of saying that a.) Pikachu maybe won't get killed and b.) I feel like Pikachu will stand up to Link better than other Nintendo or Nintendo-adjacent characters on his level. Samus, Mega Man, obviously Ganondorf or Bowser -- none can stand on their own like the dumb rat can.

transience's prediction: Link with 66.12%

Leonhart’s Analysis

Link wins. That much is obvious. The question here is how well Pikachu holds up. Pokemon’s had this reputation for a long time that it doesn’t get SFF’d, which isn’t really true. It might not get SFF’d as hard, but we’ve seen it happen. Pikachu hasn’t really been in a position to get SFF’d 1-on-1 at all since Fox doubled him in 2003, so this is a chance to see just how far he’s come. Plus, as we saw in the rematch with Ganondorf, Link doesn’t have the SFF power he used to, so I think the rat holds up okay here.

Leonhart’s Vote: Link

Leonhart’s Prediction: Link with 67.15%

Kleenex’s Analysis

Link’s about to dish out some Hyrulean Justice on the rat as punishment for his transgressions last round. The King doesn’t take too kindly to outsiders encroaching on His court.

For real though, Pikachu probably ends up holding up pretty well here. You just can’t keep a plucky underdog down. He has no chance to win, but I can definitely see him being somewhat immune to Link’s apparently weakened SFF abilities. Maybe he can avoid a doubling or something, but the rat still gets a one-way ticket to loserville. You come at the King you’d best not miss.

Kleenex’s Prediction: Link with 66%

Guest’s Analysis - imthestuntman

I am going to go ahead and predict that pikachu catches a significant rally. He seems to have been building momentum the last few rounds, and given that rallies didnt catch for zelda when she needed them it might mean link isnt going to get one. Might be some backwards logic there so dont examine it too closely. And it seems like link the big bad rallies happen against so maybe?

Does this mean I think pikachu wins? Hell no. He's going to be losing 60-40 before he ever smells a rally. But pokemon is a behemoth these days and it just seems like this could his year. I'm guessing he is something like the 5th best character this year and shatters expectations here.

Prediction - Link wins with 53%.

Crew Consensus: Pikachu obeys the LAW.

Man can we rally the Detective Pikachu fans?

Imagine if Ryan Reynolds linked to the match.

Lopen's Unofficial Analysis x2

Link vs Pikachu
Way I see this if Ganondorf couldn't be SFFed by Link by as much as usual, Pikachu definitely ain't gonna be, so expect him to line-up with around where a narrow win on Mega Man would, somewhere in the 40% range. Then throw some antivoting into the mix? Link's chances of winnin go drastic-- *gets shot*

Link with 56.89%

Crono vs Cloud
We got Alucard and Bowser readings through Cloud and Crono and I ain't gonna doubt them. I think it says Cloud wins with Like 54% or something? I wish we had pics. Sprite Crono vs Record Keeper Cloud would be cause for concern.

Cloud with 54%

Legends Bracket: Round 2 – Cloud Strife vs. Crono

Monika’s Analysis

Cloud
Legends Round 1 - 60.40% vs. Alucard

Crono
Legends Round 1 - 54.88% vs. Bowser

I think my opinion of Cloud has flipped like five times already. 60% on Alucard didn’t seem all that great to me, but after seeing Alucard hold Bowser to 51%, who in turn got 45% on Crono, that 60% is looking a lot better. Cloud may not be one of the top Noble Nine guys anymore, but it still seems like he might be in the middle of the pack at least.

Crono, even with a potential CT boost, is at best on Cloud’s level. It’s far more likely he’s a little weaker though, and just from going off the numbers we’ve seen so far from the Legends and Losers bracket, Crono didn’t do anything to make me think he’s stronger than Cloud.

Now after all the craziness we’ve seen so far, especially from FF7, you can’t count Crono out here. Seeing Tifa change up the FF7 hierarchy had me shook. Now this will be a test of the entire Square hierarchy, and we’ll see if CT has dethroned FF7. With Vincent/Magus earlier, Magus came very close to winning that match, so I don’t think Cloud is going to significantly SFF Crono or make him look bad here.

Just like with Vincent/Magus though, I’m seeing the traditional hierarchy hold strong here.

Monika’s Voting Tip of the Day: Maybe I should try out the spiky hair with a sword look. I think I could pull it off, ahaha!

Monika’s Prediction of the Day: Cloud – 53%

...That's my advice for today! Thanks for listening~

transience’s Analysis

For the majority of the bracketmaking period -- the first one -- I had Crono over Cloud. My thinking going into this contest was that Final Fantasy VII was going to suck in this double vote environment based on how godawful its early vote is every time. Crono was coming off of a super CT run and that game is so far up gamefaqs's alley that Crono could run it up. Also, I took CT to the finals of the last game contest which was probably my best pick ever until SSBM rallying killed it. Man, I'm still sore over that. Only three matches have ever really made me mad, and that's the only one without Mario in it (and he still sorta is. screw you, Mario!)

I don't think the second part of that equation is correct this year. Crono beat Bowser but it wasn't like when CT beat FFX. It wasn't convincing. It was just like always - Crono did well enough and nothing more. You need more than that to beat Cloud. I think Crono is probably closer to Sonic than Snake, Zelda, etc.

But I do think that first part was correct. I'm looking at Snake's result vs. Auron line right up with Squall, Vincent, Tidus, etc. Sephiroth's performance was laugh out loud bad against Tifa, who has been the only one to buck the FF7 trend for whatever reason. Cloud's okay, I guess.. his Alucard performance suggests a clear 55/45 result here vs. Crono. But after watching a same fanbase match where the almighty Sephiroth looks more like Magus, I'm not especially expecting a lot.

That same fanbase thing keeps coming back to me - there are lots of people who know Cloud but not Crono, but not many who play CT without having any familiarity with FF7. Cloud's got that Smash Bros. edge now too. I could see Crono getting the best of Cloud in a year where CT looks great, but I'm not seeing Magus and Frog in that light this year. I think Cloud wins this fairly handily, and if there's any overlap going on here, it probably makes Cloud look really good leading up to his beatdown from Link.

transience's prediction: Cloud with 59.55%

Leonhart’s Analysis

Here’s the first real test of the X-Stats in this double elimination format. Thanks to Bowser and Alucard facing each other after losing to Crono and Cloud, we can project the numbers out to a 55% win here for Cloud. Honestly, that sounds about right to me anyway, even if we didn’t have the X-Stats to bolster the argument. I suppose it’s possible that Cloud SFFs Crono, but Chrono Trigger has generally held up well against Final Fantasy VII in the past (including Vincent/Magus this year), so I don’t think that’ll happen. What seems more likely to happen is that Crono wins for no discernible reason because the voters seem bent on causing chaos this year (and I’m all for it!).

Leonhart’s Vote: Cloud Strife

Leonhart’s Prediction: Cloud Strife with 54.99%

Kleenex’s Analysis

I wish I was seeing the result of Alucard/Bowser before I wrote this so I could avoid looking like a complete moron, but let’s be real, I was going to make this pick anyway. I’m all in on the Crono resurgence tour. He looked pretty good against Bowser (imo) and if there was ever a chance for him to upend the hierarchy, it’s this year. Magus and Frog both looked better than they have in years, so I think whatever juice Chrono Trigger was on back in 2015 is still kind of lingering. Let’s go Crono! It’s time to change the future once and for all!

Kleenex’s Prediction: Crono with 51%

Guest’s Analysis - ctesjbuvf

I'm a bit sad Crono ran into Cloud specifically. I really think Crono has boosted from the low point he has hit in recent years, however, Cloud is probably the NN'er he has the smallest chance to prove that against, because he's gonna face SFF and likely get the shortend of it. Frog and Magus looked good at it makes sense that with Chrono Trigger boosting, so would its characters, although not as much.

So yeah, I don't think Crono can pull it off, but hopefully he gets to impress a bit in the losers bracket. Cloud will probably make Alucard look better than he is here, but it can't be helped.

Cloud Strife - 58.14%
Crono – 41.86%

Crew Consensus: C_o__ > C_o__

If Kleenex gets this right via not being able to see the results I'll laugh so hard.

....I hope he sent in a pick for Samus/Tifa II >_>

Sprite round gives Crono a fighting chance, at least!

let's go Crono

let's go chaos

Chaos for CBXI

Plot Twist Pikachu wins.

Bow down to your new God.

The one Pokeupset I could get behind

MM is gonna look like shit if pikachu can't do well. Anyways..I expect Crono to lead for a bit, but go down.

this is gonna get ugly for both dudes

Man Crono can't even hold the lead at all against Cloud. I feel like Crono being the worst NN should be discussed more than it is.

Alucard has a better first 5 vs Cloud than Crono

though I think Link might actually have the worst first 5 in the game now

Fun fact Alucard kept it closer in the first 5 than Crono did

Well it was more fun before it was ninjad

Crono is doing worse than Alucard was at this point in time! Alucard had a major bandwagon though.

transcience posted...

Alucard has a better first 5 vs Cloud than Crono

though I think Link might actually have the worst first 5 in the game now

Did you see Sephiroth's first 5 against Tifa.

rip crono/pikachu with that update omg

Link vs. Cloud’s first 5 minutes are going to be pretty funny. no one will vote!

Alucard's percentage still ahead of Crono's

I want x-stats that have Alucard > Crono come on Cloud drive this guy into the ground

Lopen posted...

Alucard's percentage still ahead of Crono's

I want x-stats that have Alucard > Crono come on Cloud drive this guy into the ground

Bowser > Alucard > Crono > Bowser

Obviously Crono rSFFed Bowser

The dream is dead.

this is more or less in line with expectations. Crono will drop a little more but he’s not getting killed. I think I’d take Pikachu over Crono though so next round could get ugly.

rip

Crono's getting beat down pretty easily even with a picture advantage since sprites aren't favorable to Cloud and Crono isn't hurt by sprites. This is showing that Crono probably hasn't boosted much at all and is still near the bottom of the Noble Nine.

My current Noble Nine rankings:

Link
Mario
Samus
Snake
Cloud
Mega Man
Crono
Sephiroth
Sonic

Hard to tell where to put Sephiroth as we don't have a good read on him outside of the Mario match.

LusterSoldier posted...

Crono's getting beat down pretty easily even with a picture advantage since sprites aren't favorable to Cloud and Crono isn't hurt by sprites. This is showing that Crono probably hasn't boosted much at all and is still near the bottom of the Noble Nine.

My current Noble Nine rankings:

Link
Mario
Samus
Snake
Cloud
Mega Man
Crono
Sephiroth
Sonic

Hard to tell where to put Sephiroth as we don't have a good read on him outside of the Mario match.

Id take crono > MM and Sonic > sephiroth.

remember clinkeroth

Zelda – 50.00%
Solid Snake – 49.68%
Sonic the Hedgehog – 42.16%
Auron – 38.52%
Aerith Gainsborough – 37.81%
Squall Leonhart – 36.68%
Geralt – 36.10%
Fox McCloud – 35.77%
Bayonetta – 35.46%
Simon Belmont – 34.52%
Vincent Valentine – 34.05%
Pac-Man – 34.00%
Ryu Hayabusa – 33.97%
Sub-Zero – 33.35%
Jill Valentine – 32.83%
Magus – 32.77%
Waluigi – 32.19%
Rosalina – 31.75%
Captain Toad – 30.26%
The Boss – 29.30%
Shovel Knight – 28.70%
Lucina – 26.62%
Garrus Vakarian – 26.39%
Ramza Beoulve – 26.06%
Metal Sonic – 25.48%
Riku – 25.25%
Shulk – 24.97%
Ezio Auditore da Firenze – 24.67%
Claire Redfield – 22.59%
Joker/Ren Amamiya – 20.89%
D. Va – 20.37%
Sans – 19.47%
Aloy – 19.18%
Hat Kid – 17.69%

Just because it hasn't been said in a while, LOL Riku

so Zelda with 58% tomorrow then, huh

Samus Aran – 50.00%
Mario – 48.05%
Tifa Lockhart – 41.07%
Mega Man X – 40.92%
Luigi – 39.95%
Sephiroth – 39.16%
Mewtwo – 34.42%
Ryu – 31.13%
Frog – 30.66%
Amaterasu – 30.25%
Captain Falcon – 27.47%
Lara Croft – 27.28%
Revolver Ocelot – 25.86%
GlaDOS – 25.82%
King Dedede – 25.60%
Miles “Tails” Prower – 24.25%
Albert Wesker – 23.28%
Geno – 22.02%
Richter Belmont – 21.76%
KOS-MOS – 21.74%
Master Chief – 21.59%
Nathan Drake – 20.99%
Commander Shepard – 20.82%
King K. Rool – 20.31%
Ellie – 19.81%
Lloyd Irving – 19.64%
Aqua – 18.53%
Miles Edgeworth – 18.01%
Metal Man – 17.52%
Isabelle – 15.84%
Monokuma – 14.49%
Goro Majima – 13.38%
Quiet – 13.30%
Draven – 7.18%

yeah, we'll need to see if we get a legit mario result to adjust sephiroth through because yikes ryu and frog