Character Battle X Contest Analysis Crew - Part 88888888888888888888888~ GameFAQs Contests

Mario
Cloud
Samus
Crono
Zelda
Snake
Sonic
Pikachu
Mega Man
Sephiroth

maybe

I dunno

The Mana Sword posted...

Sonic
Pikachu

No way.

Sonic could possibly be not the weakest, but he is below Pikachu.

mario crushing sephiroth as hard as samus is crushing tifa, goddamn.

I mean, this a weird exercise anyway because I think results can change relative to any given opponent, so a straight rank down is inaccurate.

Plus I put approximately 5 seconds thought into that list.

Ganondorf gonna beat Mega Man book it

TheKoolAidShoto posted...

so tran the only one with sonic > zelda huh

it's an alphabetical list

Mario
Samus
Crono
Zelda/Mega Man/Pikachu/Snake/Cloud
Sephiroth
Sonic

Outside of Mario on top this is basically a crapshoot (other than Samus being legit, she might be below Cloud maybe?). Cloud being down is my weird pick, mostly because I could make a long list of things about that Cloud/Alucard match that worry me, especially with Mario and Samus showing right now that there isn't much of a 'got out of Division' momentum boost like was being theorized. Those weren't momentum-caused overperformances by Pikachu/Zelda/Alucard.

Either that or Samus is 55-45ing Cloud given what she's doing to momentumed Tifa.

yeah I just have no feel for the contest this year

that's because it's different! zing

so it seems like the consensus is Mario is the clear #2, Cloud and Samus are largely fighting for 3/4, and then the rest of the guys are kinda blended from there. it's kinda like the mid-2000s just with FF7 guys having fallen off.

eh I guess

although Link, Mario, and Samus being way stronger than everyone else doesn't feel like a good kind of different

Cloud and Samus fighting for 3rd?

Tifa beats Alucard easily in my mind.

The top 3 being all Nintendo is pretty bad given that the non-Nintendo members of the Noble Nine have fallen so much that they really can't save us from a Link/Mario final.

Cloud might just be the strongest of the non-Nintendo members, and he looks like he'll get destroyed by Link pretty badly if Mario/Sephiroth is showing us today. Link might just push Cloud under 40% for the first time in contest history.

I mean, it’s not a measure of good, it’s a measure of reality. I think having Cloud 3rd is perfectly reasonable.

...but it could be Zelda! hahahahaha oh i’m not kidding

I have no idea what to think of Alucard still. The only thing that fits is putting Cloud in the Zelda-tier, but that just feels off because it's Cloud.

yeah I guess Snake and Zelda are technically in the discussion

but I doubt it because Snake isn't Nintendo enough

also if you assume Vincent = Squall, Zelda beats Sonic with 54.58% next round

I will need to see Zelda beat Samus to even vaguely consider it.

At Samus's worst she still got like 55%, and Samus is at about 9% on Tifa better than her worst right now.

also if Frog = Magus, Tifa beats Sonic with 51.97%

which would make Samus truly scary

yeah, what do the numbers say so far? I guess there’s just eight new guys thrown in there. tomorrow will tell us more.

what about Auron = Squall?

If Auron = Squall, Zelda beats Sonic with 59.85%

so that would be your route to her being #3 or 4

here’s one, what does Falcon = Fox say about Seph/Zelda

If Falcon = Fox, Seph beats Zelda with 50.98%

that’s like his best case scenario. yikes

LeonhartFour posted...

If Falcon = Fox, Seph beats Zelda with 50.98%

oh my god what

someone that tells me how absurd zelda's run has been more than beating snake despite losing the registered vote could

yeah I'd say there's very little chance Seph beats Zelda if she beats Snake

Seph hasn't been on Snake's level in a long time, even if Snake has dropped off this year.

Auron got 57.64% on Aerith in 2010.

If he gets that on her now, how does Zelda/Sonic look?

Well, if Sonic = Zelda, Auron is currently projected to get 58.61% on Aerith. Drop it down that almost 1%, and Zelda beats Sonic with 51.15%.

Losers Bracket: Round 1 – Ganondorf vs. Mega Man

Monika’s Analysis

Ganondorf
Legends Round 1 - 20.36% vs. Link

Mega Man
Legends Round 1 - 49.89% vs. Pikachu

well then

I took Pikachu to win here, so it makes sense to take the character that is essentially equal to Pikachu to beat Ganondorf. Throughout the contest, Link and Zelda (well mostly Zelda) have looked super strong, but Ganondorf has not been as dominant. 56% on Dante and 52% on Vivi aren’t bad, but they aren’t as impressive as Pikachu and Zelda (which is why they beat Noble Niners). If we assume Mega Man does around the same as Pikachu did on Zero and Yoshi, then that means you have to look at how Ganon fits into that. I know I take Ganondorf to beat Zero, and I think I take him over Yoshi...(i do love me some yoshi tho)

The other question here is if Mega Man losing to Pikachu is a sign of Mega Man dropping enough to beat a stronger Ganondorf. I don’t think so, but I do think that Ganondorf will come kinda close, once again showing the shrinking gap between the lower Noble Nine members and the elites/near-elites.

Monika’s Voting Tip of the Day: M ni a

Monika’s Prediction of the Day: Mega Man – 53%

...That's my advice for today! Thanks for listening~

Auron looks a clear step (or two) below what he used to be. Goes from 57% on Zero to 57% on Sub-Zero (who is lesser than Zero, it's in the name) and 53% on Geralt. The Sonic match is the first time all year he looked good, which in turn, looks really bad for Sonic.

transience’s Analysis

I'd be a little bit worried here if it were Zelda instead of Ganondorf. Mega Man has always handled proper Nintendo pretty well. Pikachu's a weird one, and I was wrong about him getting beat into the ground by Mega, but Ganon hasn't been that good and is a true third tier N character. Mega's in the second tier and shouldn't have too much trouble beating him down.

Percentages are tough here though. Historically I'd expect this to be in the upper 50s, approaching 60, and Ganondorf is one of the biggest contest leeches in history. Mega might blow him up here, but the site is so ga-ga for Zelda that I just don't want to assume that Mega can double him or whatever. Even though he should.

transience's prediction: Mega Man with 57.11%

Leonhart’s Analysis

My initial gut reaction is that Pikachu is probably the strongest non-Noble Nine Nintendo character outside of maybe Zelda herself, but it’s hard to tell with Ganondorf. He’s always been one of the stronger near elites on the pecking order, and of course, we didn’t get any real chance to see what he’s made of against Link. With what we’re seeing out of the Zelda series this year so far, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that Ganondorf wins, although that would arguably make Vivi the second strongest FF character now somehow. All things considered, Mega Man feels like the “safe” bet, but I don’t even know with this contest anymore.

Leonhart’s Vote: Mega Man

Leonhart’s Prediction: Mega Man with 53.11%

Kleenex’s Analysis

Poor Mega Man, beaten by a rat. Luckily, he has a good shot at some kind of redemption here. Mega only barely lost to PIkachu last round, and I’d bet pretty much anything on Pikachu being notably stronger than Ganondorf. Sure, the ‘dorf somehow managed to avoid a quadrupling last round (and yes this is somehow seen as impressive), but I think that’s more to due with Link losing his ability to SFF into the ground more than any kind of Ganondorf mega boost. Mega Man should be able to set up a likely rematch with Pikachu next round. If he can’t win this match, then he is truly lost.

Kleenex’s Prediction: Mega Man with 55%

Guest’s Analysis - tennisboy213

This match basically comes down to what you think of Pikachu, Ganondorf, and Yoshi. I think Ganondorf fits in nicely between Pikachu and Yoshi in strength so I'll just go with that and call it a day.

tennisboy213's prediction: Mega Man with 52.22%

Crew Consensus: Mega Man actually wins this time.

Link as #1? How about Mario as #1 now!

My rankings pretty much match KKP's.

(Link)
Mario
Samus
Cloud
Zelda
Solid Snake
Mega Man
Pikachu
Crono
Sephiroth
Sonic

Sonic could be displaced by Ganondorf or Tifa, but I gotta give Sonic the benefit of the doubt.

Haste_2 posted...

Link as #1? How about Mario as #1 now!

This is the real dream, isn’t it? I’m all aboard this train, even it’s doomed!

(Link)
Mario
Samus
Cloud
Crono
Zelda
Pikachu
Mega Man
Solid Snake
Sonic
Sephiroth

Everything after Cloud feels like a mild nightmare to properly figure out.

mario as #2 would please me so much despite not even being a big mario guy

Master Moltar posted...

but Cloud has definitely lost a step after looking at his match with Alucard. Sure, Alucard is stronger now, but the Cloud of old would have (and did) won that match with more than 60%.

Sorry this doesn't make much sense, did Cloud underperform or not?

Link
Mario
Samus
Cloud
Crono
Zelda
Snake
Sephiroth
Sonic
Pikachu
Mega Man

Something like that.

He's saying that even with a stronger Alucard, if Cloud had his old strength, he still would have won by more, so it just depends on what your expectations of Cloud were coming into the contest as to whether that's an underperformance. I thought 60% was a good bar to clear.

And now Mario's clearing it against Seph, so whatever.

I didn’t expect so much respect for Ganon against a known Nintendo icon. then again, I was also highest on Mega Man beating Pikachu so maybe I’m the problem.

Link
Mario
Samus
Cloud
Sephiroth (hard to get over his destruction of Ryu)
Crono
Zelda
Snake
Pikachu
Mega Man
Sonic

Losers Bracket: Round 1 – Alucard vs. Bowser

Monika’s Analysis

Alucard
Legends Round 1 - 39.60% vs. Cloud Strife

Bowser
Legends Round 1 – 45.12% vs. Crono

Funny how this is mostly interesting just so we can gauge how strong a dude that isn’t even in the match is.

60% on Alucard from the site’s former #2 character looks pretty bad. Cloud hasn’t looked like himself in recent contests, but that might be one of his worst showings to date. If Cloud is still somehow legit, then Bowser is going to have a tough time here because that says Alucard is really strong.

With Tifa and Seph also underperforming though, it’s much more likely that the FF7 crew ain’t what they use to be. I expect Bowser to win with ease here, and the closer he gets to Cloud’s number, the more I’m eyeing Crono in the winner’s bracket.

Monika’s Voting Tip of the Day: Mo ik

Monika’s Prediction of the Day: Bowser – 54%

...That's my advice for today! Thanks for listening~

transience’s Analysis

It's so hard to stick with my gut and pick Alucard here. I think he's looked better than Bowser for sure this year and I'm not really that big on Crono this year. I think Cloud beats Crono by about the same margin as he beat Alucard, and Crono beat Bowser with some space between them.

But how do you pick against the Nintendo guy? After seeing Pikachu beat Mega Man, Zelda beat Snake and Mario/Samus obliterate the FF7 duo, it's just so hard to not just pick N in any debatable match and call it a day. There's also the idea that Alucard > Bowser means Red > Charizard, and while Charizard undoubtedly sucked this year, he shouldn't lose to Red. I'll wimp out and join the rest of the crew in picking the Nintendo thing. Who needs an analysis crew when you just pick the Nintendo guy no matter what?

transience's prediction: Bowser with 51.32%

Leonhart’s Analysis

In almost any year prior to this, Bowser would beat Alucard. While this may be the strongest Alucard we’ve seen, I don’t think that much has changed. It’s also kind of hard to fathom how bad it would make Bowser and Kirby look relative to some of the other characters in Alucard’s division if he were to drop this. Then again, Bowser hasn’t made much sense this year anyway, so who knows! I think he should win, and if he goes big, that gives people hope for Crono > Cloud in the Legends division!

Leonhart’s Vote: Bowser

Leonhart’s Prediction: Bowser with 53.97%

Kleenex’s Analysis

This should give us a pretty good look into what we can expect from the Cloud/Crono match coming up. If Bowser completely mops the floor with Alucard, then Crono’s got a great shot at taking Cloud down, unless he gets shafted by some kind of Square hierarchy nonsense. So can Bowser to it? I’m not sure. I’m still not entirely sure where Alucard stands, and personally I kinda think his whole division was pretty weak. That being said, Bowser still needs to pull off like 56-57% for Crono to even think about having a shot, and I’m not sure he can do that. Bowser will still win, though.

Kleenex’s Prediction: Bowser with 55%

Guest’s Analysis - SuperNiceDog

Alucard was the supposed star of the first half of the contest(cough cough Zelda), but his run ends here. Bowser aint gonna lose, especially considering Smash Ultimate on the very near horizon. I think Alucard needed to get 45% on Cloud for me to even consider him having a chance in this match. That didn’t happen, and thus Bowser cruises in Losers at least for another match.



Bowser flames on.

Bowser wins with 56% of the vote.

Odds of Bowser winning: 98%

Crew Consensus: King Koopa puts an end to The Plan

Lopen's Unofficial Analysis x2

Mega Man v Ganondorf
Hey it's Lopen here again to tell you what not to pick for this finals bracket, since apparently I'm gonna get all of these wrong! Well okay Pikachu didn't fold to hierarchy, but we've seen Ganondorf do it many a time (although hey he did vaguely respectable against Link I'm going to chalk that up to antivoting).

Anyway crazy for Nintendo or not this probably doesn't change. Mega Man being weaker outright is a possibility too, so Ganondorf may make this a bit more respectable than usual.

Mega Man with 57.87%

Alucard v Bowser
It's hard to say Alucard hasn't looked better than Bowser step for step. The big reason to bet on Bowser here is a suspicious Kirby match, and because Bowser is Nintendo. Second point is pretty big.

Surely Alucard's Plan involves a crew curse and redeeming Lopen, right? What a horrible night to have a curse and all that? I still have faith in Alucard and Plan. I must.

Alucard with 51.15%

I want to see Tifa beat Seph just to throw everything out of whack

I think she will do it. Obviously Sephiroth was the strongest of the 2 but now? With Hentai rallies too?

ranking next round’s matches (both brackets)

Zelda/Sonic
Cloud/Crono
Mega/Ganon
Alucard/Bowser
Snake/Auron
Mario/Samus
Link/Pikachu
Seph/Tifa

edit: this round kinda sucks, huh? it’s the calm before the storm with the most interesting matches just being measuring sticks.

edit 2: the losers bracket is really going to spoil the winners bracket results too!

So what would happen if the winner of the Legends bracket went on to lose to the winner of the losers bracket? I know there is no bracket pick for that but think Allen would hold game 3 to break the tie (assuming it's the same two characters) just for shits and giggles?

Link beats everyone.

transcience posted...

I want to see Tifa beat Seph just to throw everything out of whack

well since samus > mario indirectly that makes sense to me

preach it, moltar