Character Battle X Contest Analysis Crew - Part 88888888888888888888888~ GameFAQs Contests

(∞)

Hey there!

…

Actually, forget it. I don’t need to follow this intro script anymore. It’s actually kind of weird to call this an introduction when we’ve already been talking this long, ahaha. So allow me to really introduce myself.

I’m not Master Moltar, despite what you may have thought. That person isn’t running the Crew this time around.

I am Monika, the president of the Literature Club and former entrant in Character Battle X. Now I’m on to bigger and better things, like running the Contest Analysis Crew! It’s been pretty exciting so far, even though I’ve made a few small mistakes. Gosh, I can’t believe I accidentally broke a topic intro a while back! Still, I hope you’ve been enjoying it so far.

…

Though...there’s been something troubling me…

...

It’s just...well...I think you forgot about me. You see, I was really hoping I would win my match. I thought it would be really cool to be crowned champion! Also, everyone was talking about me! They were saying I had a great shot at winning the entire contest!

Too bad I lost in Round 1, huh? If this was a game, I would have just deleted the other entrants and made myself the winner, ahaha. That isn’t what’s bothering me though.

After I lost...the talk about me started to die down. Less and less people mentioned me, and I became an afterthought. Why did you move on? Why did you start talking about other characters? Chun-Li, Vivi, DK, Pikachu, Alucard, 2B, Bowser, Kirby, Zelda, Geralt, Mega Man X, Tifa...you talked so highly about them, but the word Monika was no longer mentioned…

Well...that’s in the past now! Trust me, I’m not going to get all hung up over it.

…

Ehehe, sorry that just reminded me of something.

...

Anyway, this is a new beginning for us. Now that you know where I am, we can be together in this topic forever! You don’t have to read other topics anymore, just stay in here with me. We can talk about the Contest until the end of time, or whatever else you want! In fact, I won’t even post my write-ups with the other Crew members anymore! You can choose to only read mine, and that’s probably for the best, ahaha.

…

Hmm? Don’t think of this as a punishment for not choosing me. You’re actually being rewarded. Now you won’t make the mistake of forgetting me ever again.

Are you ready to spend our eternity together?

I have so many things to talk about!

Where do I start…

Current Guest List: Send write-ups to mastermoltar@gmail.com

Link vs. Ganondorf - ZeldaTPLink
Mega Man vs. Pikachu - tennisboy213
Cloud Strife vs. Alucard - AvaGames
Crono vs. Bowser - spooky96
Solid Snake vs. Zelda - paulg235
Sonic the Hedgehog vs. Auron - Lopen
Samus Aran vs. Tifa Lockheart - MetalmindStats
Mario vs. Sephiroth - ctesjbuvf

--------------------------

Crew Predictions: 105/120

Crew Prediction Challenge:

Moltar: 103
transience: 102
Kleenex: 97
Leonhart: 96
Guest: 92

Crew Accuracy Challenge:

Kleenex: 29
transience: 29
Guest: 27 (BetrayedTangy, SuperNiceDog (4), pjbasis, garetha200 (4), ZenOfThunder, Ranticoot (2), Hbthebattle (2), NowItsAngeTime, spooky96, RoseChevalier, Lopen (2), paulg235, DoctorJimmy133, Janus5k, BT, paulg235, TsunamiXXVIII, ctesjbuvf)
Moltar: 21
Leonhart: 17

oh crap

traumas resurfacing

TaG

Moltar, why did you close the previous topic when it wasn't even half-way from reaching 500 posts?

I blame Monika.

Glad that when I finally got the accuracy point it was for a Sephiroth match where everyone expected him to do worse.

oh wait does this thing restart tonight

crew is engaged as ever i see

I thought it was tomorrow because the date says 27th, but I forgot it’s using a different time zone as its reference point

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/features/cbx_2c_rules

A valid GameFAQs account is required to enter the Contest and to be eligible for the prizes. You must provide your real name and address via your My Account: Private Profile page. Prior to the close of Contest entries (2:59:59 PM PT on November 26, 2018, the "Deadline").

That basically confirms the contest will return today, since contest matches have traditionally started one hour after the close of bracket entries for past contests.

I actually agree that people not talking about DDLC was the biggest loss of the death of rallyfaqs.

Legends Bracket: Round 1 – Link vs. Ganondorf

Monika’s Analysis

Hey! So you know that 2004 rematch you’ve been dying to see? That epic struggle between two juggernauts going at it in a blow-for-blow super exciting bout?

Well this is it!

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/1750

Let’s hope that the rematch is just as legendary and thrilling as the first bout!

Monika’s Voting Tip of the Day: In a battle between good and evil, pick who you think is right! It’s okay to have a different perspective on things!

Monika’s Prediction of the Day: Link – 85%

...That's my advice for today! Thanks for listening~

transience’s Analysis

We're back! And it's... Link vs. Ganondorf? Seriously? Maybe Allen actually thought that Ganondorf wouldn't be here because he's largely avoided these kinds of matches the entire bracket, to great success. And that's saying something, because Link/Ganondorf is the worst historical same fanbase beatdown that we've ever seen.

We haven't seen the powerhouses yet this tournament, and Link's a contest entity unto himself at this point, but no one has really been able to blow out fodder this year. Ganondorf is a different case, but I've long felt that the days of 95% performances are far in the past. 88% feels impossible too unless you're a goddamn Destiny character or a former contest winner.

I may be underestimating Link here, but I think there is a faction of voters who just won't vote for him no matter what. Ganondorf has long been a leech to his series but I think he's developed a bigger fanbase since 2004, post-Nintendo boost, post-TP, Brawl. Breath of the Wild, etc. Link will kill him but I don't think this is 85%+.

transience's prediction: Link with 76.66%

Leonhart’s Analysis

Oh hey, we’re back. I almost feel like the break was kind of bad because the contest has lost some momentum. It might be bad for the non-Noble Niners who were building up a bandwagon, and they’re at enough of a disadvantage already, nobody more than Ganondorf here. I think the Noble Nine being saved for this part of the contest is going to make them more beastly than they normally would be, but we’ll see soon enough. This match won’t tell us much about that.

I’m honestly kind of bummed we’re getting this match because I feel like the chances of Link repeating or exceeding his 2004 are pretty low since he gets anti-voted more now than he did back then. He’s lost some SFF power over the years. This could see Link have a return to form since he didn’t win the last Character Battle and he’s riding high off of Breath of the Wild now. If he does, everyone else is more boned than they already are because his biggest competition has only continued to fall off over the years. Link’s gonna win this thing anyway, so might as well “hope for the best here” and bet on him sapping Ganondorf down to nothing.

Leonhart’s Vote: Link

Leonhart’s Prediction: Link with 87.90%

Kleenex’s Analysis

Well that was a nice break. It looks like Link also gets a break too because LOL this match. We saw this match happen 14 years ago, and Link make Ganon look like Draven (the bad one, when he was losing to Chie). Could that happen again? It’s possible. Major blowouts like that are rare these days, though we did see Ammy pull it off in round 1. I’m going to err on the side of a mere quintupling here, rather than a septupling, though.

Kleenex’s Prediction: The Link with 84%

Guest’s Analysis - ZeldaTPLink

The horse stopped at the entrance of Lost Woods. His rider dismounted, and entered the forest.

Right, left, right, left, straight, left, right. He had never forgotten the path to the sacred meadow. Every time a new challenge came, he would come there first to prepare.

At the end of the grove, his treasure awaited for him. The Blade of Evil's Bane, embedded on a pedestal from which only he could pull the weapon from.

Link grabbed the Master Sword, and pulled it. He was ready.

His first opponent would be the King of Darkness. Easy. He had defeated Ganondorf multiple times, always saving Hyrule in the process. And yet, that was no challenge compared to the real competition Link was taking part in now. Compared to Draven, this would be a walk in the park.

But Draven was not here this time. The era of rallies was over, and the Glorious Executioner had been swept away with it, defeated by a mere beast. This was a new era of true strength, and Link was unrivaled in that. Mario was being hyped as a new power, but when had Mario ever been able challenge him in a direct fight? Cloud had in ancient times, but Cloud was not that strong anymore. Snake was also under suspicion after the pathetic performance shown by his group, and the others were but a mere footnote in Link's victorious contest history.

It had been 5 years. But he was ready. This contest belonged to him, and he was going to take it back. First, by slaying an arrogant pig.

Link 91%
Ganondorf 9%

Crew Consensus: Link to the Match

@Master Moltar posted...

Legends Bracket: Round 1 – Link vs. Ganondorf

Monika’s Analysis

Monika’s Voting Tip of the Day: In a battle between good and evil, pick who you think is right! It’s okay to have a different perspective on things!

Monika’s Prediction of the Day: Link – 85%~

Why have you started calling yourself Monika? And why did you close the previous topic when it wasn't even half-way to 500 posts?

Because it's my topic and I can do what I want with it, geez Luster.

ZeldaTPLink's analysis said...

The horse stopped at the entrance of Lost Woods. His rider dismounted, and entered the forest.

Right, left, right, left, straight, left, right. He had never forgotten the path to the sacred meadow. Every time a new challenge came, he would come there first to prepare.

At the end of the grove, his treasure awaited for him. The Blade of Evil's Bane, embedded on a pedestal from which only he could pull the weapon from.

Link grabbed the Master Sword, and pulled it. He was ready.

His first opponent would be the King of Darkness. Easy. He had defeated Ganondorf multiple times, always saving Hyrule in the process. And yet, that was no challenge compared to the real competition Link was taking part in now. Compared to Draven, this would be a walk in the park.

But Draven was not here this time. The era of rallies was over, and the Glorious Executioner had been swept away with it, defeated by a mere beast. This was a new era of true strength, and Link was unrivaled in that. Mario was being hyped as a new power, but when had Mario ever been able challenge him in a direct fight? Cloud had in ancient times, but Cloud was not that strong anymore. Snake was also under suspicion after the pathetic performance shown by his group, and the others were but a mere footnote in Link's victorious contest history.

It had been 5 years. But he was ready. This contest belonged to him, and he was going to take it back. First, by slaying an arrogant pig.

Link 91%
Ganondorf 9%

I would just like to mention that this is a quality write-up.

Thanks! I came up with it around the start of the contest and was just waiting for Legends to be able to do it.

If this was Vivi instead of Ganon I'd have commented on how Link has killed wizzrobes before.

are you gonna take every link writeup?

Not sure, I only had the idea for the first one. Also I might want to write other on other matches too.

Could be a series, maybe.

Originally this was going to be about how Link was the hero coming to save us from RallyFAQs, but they didn't happen.

LusterSoldier posted...

Moltar, why did you close the previous topic when it wasn't even half-way from reaching 500 posts?

who is Moltar

Oh, the 8s were a DDLC joke? Here I was thinking it was a Stanley Parable reference

Man the crew has to be really busy to make all these topics.

prove me wrong, Link

Legends Bracket: Round 1 – Mega Man vs. Pikachu

Monika’s Analysis

Relevant poll? https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5265

If there’s one thing Mega Man is good at doing, it’s calling pest control on these Pokemon. He beat a lot of them back in 2013, including his opponent in this match. This time, Pikachu doesn’t have to deal with Mewtwo taking all his votes, so does that mean he has a chance?

I..guess he does. I’m not counting on it though. Pikachu would need pretty much every Mewtwo voter in that poll to go with him, which is highly unlikely. Plus, if we want to look at this years results, Pikachu looked like he might have been strong enough to get the job done in the early rounds with his super strong performance. However, he seemed much more vulnerable in the later rounds, and needed to do a little better on Yoshi and Zero for me to give him a legit shot at a Noble Nine character.

Monika’s Voting Tip of the Day: If you’re favorite color is blue, vote Mega Man. If you’re favorite color is yellow, vote Pikachu! If you’re favorite color is something else, vote Monika! Ahaha~

Monika’s Prediction of the Day: Mega Man – 54%

...That's my advice for today! Thanks for listening~

transience’s Analysis

Hey, it's Mega Man! Some simple extrapolation: X and Luigi are about the same, with X probably being a percent or two better measured through Tifa. Pikachu went under 55% on Yoshi. Luigi's been better than Yoshi for a good while now. Mega Man is better than X. Mega Man should win on strength alone.

But more than that, one result has always stuck with me: in 2005, Yoshi blew up Pac-Man as Mega Man couldn't double Leon Kennedy. That was before we understood that Pac-Man went down hard to well-known characters like Yoshi, and he had just beaten Ocelot. There was some low-key upset buzz there - the Oracle average was 57.76% - and Mega Man went over 10% above expectations, SFFing the crap out of Yoshi to the tune of 68.08%, a full 3.5% higher than Leon. Mega Man is core Nintendo. He would blow up Ganondorf. He would blow up Luigi. He had a miraculous win against the Poketerror in 2013 when Zero was in the same match.

Mega Man just gets shit done vs. lower-tier Nintendo, and while Pikachu's more independent than second tier Mario and Zelda characters, he still can't touch the blue bomber.

transience's prediction: Mega Man with 59.91%

Leonhart’s Analysis

I’ve seen people talk about what a beast Pikachu was during the main bracket, but I was honestly kind of underwhelmed by his performances against Yoshi and Zero. Don’t get me wrong. They’re very good performances that a near elite level character would put up. I just don’t think they’re Noble Nine breaking performances. I’ve seen people talking up a Pikachu upset here, but I feel pretty good about Mega Man here. He got nearly 49% in a bonus poll against Mewtwo and Pikachu combined in 2013, which I know isn’t conclusive evidence of a victory, but I think the rat’s got an uphill climb here.

Leonhart’s Vote: Mega Man

Leonhart’s Prediction: Mega Man with 56.38%

Kleenex’s Analysis

I’ve been waffling back and forth on this match all weekend. Pikachu definitely looked real good in the main bracket, and Pokemon just had a game come out a few weeks ago, so people are high on the Pokefumes. Mega Man has been on the bottom end of the Noble Nine for a while now, and has definitely looked vulnerable over the past few contest, though he usually manages to squeak by. I think that’ll be the case here. I actually expect the NN hold strong in this first round. Some of the main bracket characters looked great, no doubt about that, but that doesn’t mean they can come knocking at the NN’s door. These guys are still a step above anyone else in the main bracket (Sephiroth being the exception), and I think they’ll assert their dominance in a way that some people may not be expecting.

Kleenex’s Prediction: Mega Man with 55%

Guest’s Analysis - tennisboy213

Remember this poll: https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5261-character-battle-ix-division-9-final-mega-man-vs-zero-mmx-vs where Charizard couldn't beat Mega Man even with Zero in the poll? Yeah Pikachu is stronger than the Zard but beating a noble niner 1 on 1 is a big ask. There is also this poll: https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5265-character-battle-ix-bonus-battle-3-runners-up-battle where Mega Man nearly beat Mewtwo and Pikachu combined.

On the other hand the rat has looked great so far and there is this poll: https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5240-character-battle-ix-division-6-round-2-crono-vs-pikachu-vs where Pikachu got 54% on Crono and nearly beat Crono and Magus combined. That match does have me second guessing myself a bit but I would say 2010 and 2013 were the weakest versions of Crono we've ever seen.

Could we finally see those scrappy underdogs pull one off here? I'm not buying the upset hype to be honest. I understand people looking for sexy upsets but I actually think there are two or three more likely upsets this round. Anyway I expect this match to be close-ish but never in question.

tennisboy213's prediction: Mega Man with 55%

Crew Consensus: Mega Man blasts Pikachu away

Save_us.rat I say. Hope he wins.

Well, if nothing else Pikachu has crew curse on his side

Lopen's unofficial analysisx2

Link v Ganondorf
I have some theories about how SFF works in this contest based on how we've seen previous results go. I'm thinking it's worse than usual because our voter pool is so condensed with people who have never left this damn site 10 years after it stopped being relevant. Hivemind is strong. What does that mean? It means a couple of things. The first is that Ganondorf is going to be SFFed harder than the last time, somehow.

Now I've heard some theories about how Link will be antivoted more than he was in 2004. I don't agree with this. Link hasn't won since 2010. That's 8 years. If anything he should be less antivoted than in 2004. If we'd had these every year, yeah attrition would set in, but this site is going to be more than happy for another Link win. Which brings us to the second thing to say about the hivemind being strong: It's the hero's welcome, and he ain't going to be antivoted. And even if he does get antivoted at some point down the line, Ganondorf of all pigs is not the one to be seen as a palatable alternative, even speaking from the lens of an antivoter (like myself-- Link after this match will have two votes from me in these contests total. I'll let you guess where the other one was)

Ganondorf is stronger now than in 04, so the percentage won't be that much higher, but even the Umineko boost can't save pig man from ruination by Link.

Link with 90.07%

Mega Man v Pikachu
So I rambled on about SFF in that last match for a reason. Because it's relevant in two matches. I get to save yapping in this one. As a great man once said long ago "Mega Man just gets shit done vs. lower-tier Nintendo"

Mega Man with 60.88%

Mega Man earned my eternal respect once he slayed a dragon in the middle of PokeFEAR.

He's not losing this.

This is a fun Crew topic series gimmick this year.

88% feels impossible too unless you're a goddamn Destiny character or a former contest winner.

Nice.

Yeah I don't really see Link breaking 80% here.

90% eh

(c’mon mega man)

link sux

next

Wow maybe Link actually is vulnerable

Golly gee I sure hope so

he might be but this won’t be the venue to show it regardless of this match

(remember zelda)

it’s crono’s time

I don't think Link looks particularly vulnerable here. He's weakened significantly since 2004, and it shows, but 74% on Ganondorf is still a beatdown. He's only weakened in that sense that Snake can get 45% against him instead of 35% - I have trouble believing anyone actually makes him sweat.

that’s more on Snake getting better though. Link is probably further from #2 than ever before.

(not this year though — Snake sux)

Snake's improved, but Clinkeroth as a whole have eroded significantly since the olden days. The focus is on FF7 losing in strength because they can actually lose debatable matches now, but Link doesn't put up the numbers he used to anymore either. He's just still the easy #1 so it doesn't stand out as much.

Link's 88 on Ganondorf was also the year that Link got 82 on Yoshi, so I always thought that result spoke more of Link being the SFF god in 2004 than anything about Ganondorf.

I don't think people would expect Link getting 82 on Yoshi today, so I don't really think this is a disappointment.

it was still like 52/48 with Cloud though. I don’t feel like looking it up exactly.

speaking of FF7 I bet Link has those trends. dude is so incredibly over and the board likes to cling to underdogs. voting for Link is like voting for the status quo. he’ll probably break 80 here.

Mega Man is fighting to preserve the noble nine here. good show, Pikachu. maybe that Zero match in 04 was totally legit.

Mega Man (2013c) has a strength of 41.83 against Base Link.
Zero (2013c) has a strength of 36.55 against Base Link.
Mega Man56.31%30,386
Zero43.69%23,574
Mega Man wins with 56.31% of the vote!

DIVISION 2 FINAL: ZERO VS. PIKACHU
Zero43.44% 13387
Pikachu56.56% 17428
TOTAL VOTES30815

For reference

Mega Man (2013c) has a strength of 41.83 against Base Link.
Yoshi (2013c) has a strength of 36.58 against Base Link.
Mega Man56.28%30,366
Yoshi43.72%23,594
Mega Man wins with 56.28% of the vote!

FINALS BRACKET ROUND 1: MEGA MAN VS. PIKACHU
Yoshi45.2% 13405
Pikachu54.8% 16249
TOTAL VOTES29654

And another one.

I just realized that, if this holds, Pikachu/Ganondorf is pretty unpredictable

i don't think we're gonna be writing about that match tho