Character Battle X Contest Analysis Crew - Part 6 GameFAQs Contests

I mean, I theorized it before the match started so it's not crazy. the funny thing is that Mario/Sonic can happen and go the complete opposite way.

Yeah, Luigi overperforming here was always a possibility.

...Unless it's not an overperformance...!

Yeah something weird was bound to happen in Luigi vs Tails. I theorized it the other way cause I thought the woodland creature being the one to get the benefit would fit how this contest has gone but Luigi reaping benefits is less surprising than the match just going by the STATZ.

Its freaking tails

So how much does Pikachu overperform in his next match thanks to the Detective Pikachu trailer?

let's get some opinions in ahead of tomorrow's match - who wins, Zero or Vivi?

Vivi

I'd take Vivi.

Yeah it's gotta be Vivi at this point

Vivi. I don't see Zidane threatening Tidus.

I think it's maybe closer than you guys do

starting to feel better about X here

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7342

'well then' Squall might have shown signs of weakness against Garrus, but he didn't look "37% on Zelda" bad. Zelda had already been one of the stars of the contest before this match, but she blew away all expectations as she put up another Noble Nine level performance. This time it was against someone we know is very legit too!

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7343

Turns out Fox isn't so far away from Waluigi and Toad after all. It appears that while the floor for these lower and mid-tier Nintendo characters is definitely higher, their ceiling is still at the midcard level.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7344

Pretty much the same sentiments as above. Rosalina, Simon, and Bayonetta aren't too far away from each other through Geralt. These four seem like a slightly weaker version of the Aerith/Fox/Waluigi/Toad stuff from above.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7345

The most expected result of the day. Sub-Zero does a little better than his past performance against Auron, which is in line with what we've seen from the contest so far.

Crew Predictions: 96/108

Next Round Thoughts: Zelda beat Aerith before, and it looks like its going to be even uglier this time around. Auron should be outside of Geralt's range, but maybe he can surprise.

Crew Prediction Challenge:

Moltar: 94
transience: 92
Kleenex: 88
Leonhart: 87
Guest: 82

Crew Accuracy Challenge: transience gets the point for Zelda, paulg235 gets the point for Geralt, and Kleenex get the point for Auron.

Kleenex: 26
transience: 25
Guest: 24 (BetrayedTangy, SuperNiceDog (3), pjbasis, garetha200 (4), ZenOfThunder, Ranticoot (2), Hbthebattle (2), NowItsAngeTime, spooky96, RoseChevalier, Lopen (2), paulg235, DoctorJimmy133, Janus5k, BT, paulg235)
Moltar: 18
Leonhart: 17

yeah the last few updates have been bad for Tifa

Tifa ded

imo

Tifa is ded

this is twice as high as Bayonetta got on Geralt. I think Tifa makes a run overnight, but I dunno if it's enough.

It's weird, but I think my interest in the contest more or less dies with Tifa, and I don't actually like her very much, I just the think the rest of the contest isn't going to be super interesting

Vivi loses tomorrow and then I have to look forward to uuuuuh

you have crono’s miracle run to look forward to !

KamikazePotato posted...

Vivi loses tomorrow and then I have to look forward to uuuuuh

just hope Kirby wrecks a Noble Niner or two

or Luigi beats X I guess

KamikazePotato posted...

It's weird, but I think my interest in the contest more or less dies with Tifa, and I don't actually like her very much, I just the think the rest of the contest isn't going to be super interesting

Vivi loses tomorrow and then I have to look forward to uuuuuh

i for one cant wait for Link vs Ganondorf II

Crono making a miracle run would be fun, but boy oh boy is Link going to make this entire bracket a joke by the end

KamikazePotato posted...

Crono making a miracle run would be fun, but boy oh boy is Link going to make this entire bracket a joke by the end

save_us.snake

I can’t wait for link to 60-40 snake

hell yeah

The Mana Sword posted...

I can’t wait for link to 60-40 snake

just as long as he beats Mario first and saves us from the nightmare final

I think there'll be stuff to look forward to once we get through the baby bracket. it's just a few more days.

but if you're looking for some kind of square/nintendo balance, yeah, you won't find it here

LeonhartFour posted...

The Mana Sword posted...

I can’t wait for link to 60-40 snake

just as long as he beats Mario first and saves us from the nightmare final

I don't know, fixing the x-stats after something like that sounds like a fun challenge !

it's not the X-Stats I'm worried about

it's just a dreadful final

even if Snake can't win it's better than that

transience posted...

I think there'll be stuff to look forward to once we get through the baby bracket. it's just a few more days.

but if you're looking for some kind of square/nintendo balance, yeah, you won't find it here

I may be getting ahead of myself, but I think the Noble Nine bracket is going to be more straightforward than we expect. The only big question mark is Crono. Snake isn't beating Mario in this climate, for instance.

Actually maybe Zelda starts beating them all up.

Snake isn't getting past Samus.

That's right, we're getting Mario/Link AND Mario/Samus twice.

well, I have some (probably) unconventional thoughts on the big bracket. I'll put them out there when we get to those matches, but generally, I think we're in for a lot of upheaval amongst the top ranks. it just might not be the upheaval people want.

WarThaNemesis2 posted...

Snake isn't getting past Samus.

That's right, we're getting Mario/Link AND Mario/Samus twice.

yeah this is rapidly turning me into "team chaos" for the next part of the bracket

I still feel pretty good about Snake beating Samus though, actually.

let's get Vivi vs Mario 1v1, what bullshit needs to happen to get that rolling

Vivi needs to beat Cloud at some point.

save_us.vivi

best case scenario is that Sephiroth actually is Mario's kryptonite and somehow beats him anyway

Comedy option: Alucard beats Cloud before Crono has a chance to

KamikazePotato posted...

Comedy option: Alucard beats Cloud before Crono has a chance to

Alucard vs Kirby in the ToC let's do this

This has been the true objective of the plan since the beginning

Some sort of "underdog factor" or something where the regular bracket guys just tear through the legends bracket would be pretty incredible. Too bad we've already seen that won't happen.

what a weird match. that random 200 vote spike over a 30 minute period sticks out like crazy, especially after losing half of it right back.

I blame Peru

transience posted...

what a weird match. that random 200 vote spike over a 30 minute period sticks out like crazy, especially after losing half of it right back.

n_n

both characters ended at their 7am percentages last round. Tifa faced a Pokémon and MMX a Metal Gear character.

yeah Tifa should have this.

Pokemon has a pretty bad morning vote since that time period features the oldest voters on average, who are least likely to have played a Pokemon game. This shouldn't be an issue with MMX.

hmm, MMX is at 53% in NA. it’s only 100 votes. we’ll see!

Round 4: Division Finals – Ganondorf vs. Vivi

Moltar’s Analysis

Ganondorf
Round 1 - 78.60% vs. Neku Sakuraba
Round 2 - 58.91% vs. Chun-Li
Round 3 - 56.40% vs. Dante

Vivi
Round 1 - 74.89% vs. Yu Narukami
Round 2 - 75.45% vs. Aya Brea
Round 3 - 54.98% vs. Donkey Kong

56% on Dante or 55% on DK, sounds like someone is in trouble here.

Pre-contest, these two were the favorites to reach this far in the division. There was a bit of doubt in Round 2 when Ganon underperformed against Chun-Li, but he turned that around by nearly beating Dante by the same amount.

Vivi has looked good, and even put down a raging Kong along the way, but the thing is that he needed to look better than “good” to win this match. If he was over-performing everywhere like Zelda or Kirby, then I’d give him a shot here. Good showings just mean he isn’t going to get stomped by Ganon here.

Moltar’s Bracket: Ganondorf

Moltar’s Prediction: Ganondorf – 52%

transience’s Analysis

I'm having a hard time reconciling Vivi in the context of all these other Square guys. It's like he faced Squall in 2013 and somehow switched contest bodies with him. Suddenly, Squall/Zelda looks more like Vivi/Zelda from 2005 (a match I most definitely got wrong -- ah, those distant pre-Boost days).

But seriously, DK rocked his fourpack quite impressively and Vivi basically treated him like nothing had changed. I have a really hard time thinking that DK didn't look better this year, especially when comparing Tidus to some of those Vivi/Tidus fourway matches. Vivi looks pretty legit.

..but unless we get some Vivi/Mario weirdness here, he's not matching up with Ganon. I mean, did you see Zelda the other day? I think you can argue that Zelda's legit better than Ganon now, but Ganon's going to boost too. He beat Dante pretty convincingly. The only weird one is that Chun Li match. If we see that Ganon again, and this site is really fond of the little black mage, then maybe this is a fight. But in reality, this shouldn't be all that close. Vivi is maybe on Dante's level?

transience's prediction: Ganondorf with 56.88%

Leonhart’s Analysis

I imagine Ganondorf is the heavy favorite at this point, but I think Vivi still has a chance. Zelda has looked flat out stronger than Ganondorf each round, so I don’t look at the Squall result as proof he’ll win. I’d take Vivi over Dante, too. Heck, I might take DK over Dante at this point, which puts Vivi within striking distance. At the very least, I expect him to put up a good fight. Final Fantasy is going to be poorly represented in the next part of the contest if they don’t step up here!

Leonhart’s Vote: Vivi

Leonhart’s Prediction: Vivi with 51.61%

Kleenex’s Analysis

Hallelujah, we’re finally down to two matches a day. Nearly every match in round 4 has the potential to be fairly interesting, minus divisions 5 and 6 probably. To start out we’ve got a classic Zelda vs. Final Fantasy match with two guys who should probably be at similar strengths at this point. Depending at which point during the contest you asked me, I would have called either one of these two the favorite to make it out of the division. Ganon definitely had what seemed to be a hiccup in round 2, but recovered very nicely against Dante. And those round 3 matches are what are tipping the scales in Ganondorf’s favor for me. I’m still not really sure what the deal is with DK this year, but if you want to make a case for Vivi winning this match, you also have to accept that fact that you’re putting DK over Dante. That’s not something I can really wrap my head around, so I’ve got my money on the ‘dorf. I’m not going to be surprised if Vivi ‘upsets’ here, but I’ll definitely be appalled at the implications.

Kleenex’s Prediction: Ganondorf with 52%

Guest’s Analysis - Bane_of_Despair

The divisional finals kick off with the best boyo Vivi vs the mighty Ganondorf. Well it's gonna be in every other write-up (right?), so you KNOW I have to reference the FUCKING FANTASTIC day in history of Vivi beating Mario and Ganondorf in 2013. Probably still my favorite I've witnessed. Vivi is one of my favorite characters just in general, so seeing something absolutely insane like that happen was glorious. Anyway, new year, new contest, new 1v1 and not 3-way. Alas, time moves on. But I will always remember it for my boy.

I picked Ganondorf to win this in my bracket, I'm still feeling like Ganondorf is gonna take this, but Vivi has been doing pretty fair for himself amidst all the Final Fantasy crumblings around him. He took down Donkey Kong who had people SHOOK when taking down the once well-to-do Leon S Kennedy. Unfortunately that's about all that's been somewhat impressive. His other two opponents have been Aya Brea and Yu Narukami and while he managed roughly 75% on both of them, neither of those are exactly heavy hitters in a contest setting. So has Vivi been more graced with an easy path to this point rather than having actual power? There's an argument to be made, but Vivi is Vivi and he is still fairly (and for great reason) beloved. So there's something there.

Looking at Ganondorf, I'd say his path to get to this point was tougher than Vivi's. Sure his round 1 was against Neku Sakuraba, but a round 2 against Chun-Li and round 3 against Dante would make up for it. Not that Chun-Li is POWERFUL, but I'd take her over Aya Brea and Yu Narukami easily. And Dante, well obviously Dante has a base amount of strength. Has it faded a bit this year? Maybe, but he's still someone.

This could be a fairly close match, but my gut still tells me Ganondorf has this. I'd love to be wrong! My bracket is already done so who better to capitalize on that than Vivi? I'd love to see another underdog victory come out for him, and this should be easier than beating Mario, even in a 3-way! But I dunno.

Winner in my heart: Vivi

Ganondorf with 55.34%

Crew Consensus: Ganondorf moves on to have a competitive showing against his opponent in the Legends bracket.