GameFAQs Contests

yeah the captain would murder peach

I think Peach would win

Aerith would at the very least beat Yuna, but she'd need to at least be able to go 50/50 with Alucard for Peach/Toad to be indirectly debatable.

Captain Toad vs Peach is interesting in that I think that could be our first fairly certain case of rSFF if we ever got the match. Like I definitely think Peach is likely a bit stronger indirectly but I would take her to fold against most Nintendo characters, especially Mario characters, hard, Captain Toad being included in that set, because no one actually likes Peach.

We need it as a bonus poll dammit.

would Aerith beat Yuna? I'm not really convinced. I remember 2006 being a time when I think Yuna outdid Aerith on Zelda?

Aeris outdid her but it was very close to the point where it came off as a massive disappointment for Aeris since she was thought to be much stronger at the time. I feel like Aeris has disappointed more often than Yuna too. I'd probably take Yuna to scrape by that 1v1.

if I remember right, some of us (sup) picked Aeris over Zelda because it came out the same day as FF12? yeah, so much for that.

man, Zelda is really eating tonight

Squall isn't going up like last time. Mass Effect is just as bad early on.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7314

2B upsets Ness.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7315

Bowser has no problem with Charizard.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7316

Phoenix wins a very close match with Ike.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7317

Kirby does as expected.

Crew Predictions: 70/80

Next Round Thoughts: 2B's run is very likely to end with Bowser. Same goes for Phoenix against Kirby.

Crew Prediction Challenge:

transience: 71
Moltar: 70
Leonhart: 66
Kleenex: 64
Guest: 63

Crew Accuracy Challenge: Kleenex gets the point for 2B, Leonhart gets the point for Bowser, Leonhart gets the point for Phoenix, and Kleenex gets the point for Kirby.

Guest: 20 (BetrayedTangy, SuperNiceDog (2), pjbasis, garetha200 (4), ZenOfThunder, Ranticoot (2), Hbthebattle (2), NowItsAngeTime, spooky96, RoseChevalier, Lopen (2), paulg235, DoctorJimmy133)
transience: 19
Kleenex: 16
Moltar: 14
Leonhart: 12

I'm pretty apathetic about peach but even more so for Toad.

Would vote Peach there for sure

darn I came awfully close to getting 3/4 accuracy points today

Lopen posted...

Aeris outdid her but it was very close to the point where it came off as a massive disappointment for Aeris since she was thought to be much stronger at the time. I feel like Aeris has disappointed more often than Yuna too. I'd probably take Yuna to scrape by that 1v1.

Yuna has never looked anywhere near that good before or since. I would take that result about as seriously as the Samus/Zelda match that said Zelda was better than half the Noble Nine. After that total flop she put up against Alucard, I'd never take her to beat Aerith. At the very least, the hierarchy would intervene.

also it's a shame that we somehow never got Tifa vs. Aerith or Zelda in 2006 (or any time since)

those would have been fun to see

not in 2006 it wouldn't have been

it would've been fun to see how badly Tifa would've SFF'd Aerith (and it would've been a LOT)

Tifa/Zelda has always been a match I've wanted to see though

Just wanted to say thanks for the topic, it's been a fun read and also to Leonhart for his pre-contest analysis earlier!

Oh, you're quite welcome. Just want to help make this contest a little more fun for everyone!

With Squall looking bad my bracket is looking beyond repair now

Tifa tripled The Boss

this ain't nothin'

yet you still picked zelda under 60%

and squall with over 70%

because I didn't think MGS sucked as badly as ME now

I was wrong

Big Boss to win the division. My worst decision so far

somehow that's only been my second worst decision

my worst decision (sort of) comes into play tomorrow

handsomeboy2012 posted...

Big Boss to win the division. My worst decision so far

I hear you. I feel like a Naked Snake pic (ideally with the famous ending salute) would help, but not to the extent needed.

Fox McCloud putting 70% on anything is a glorious thing to behold after years of these contests. How do we feel about Fox throwing down on Aeris?

I think Fox could considered the favorite at this point, even if D. Va is likely just weak. Aeris just doesn't look good.

Round 2 – Geralt vs. Simon Belmont

Moltar’s Analysis

Geralt
Round 1 - 56.03% vs. Rosalina

Simon
Round 1 - 50.78% vs. Ryu Hayabusa

I don’t even know what to make of this fourpack after Round 1. I would think Rosalina is the weakest of the bunch, but there’s only so much wriggle room for Geralt to be stronger than Simon and Ryu H.

Honestly there’s less analysis to do here and more guesswork. I think Geralt is going to be a little stronger than Simon and Ryu H in strength, but really can’t base it off anything.

Moltar’s Bracket: Geralt

Moltar’s Prediction: Geralt – 51%

transience’s Analysis

Alucard proved to me that Simon isn't purely a trailer. Okay, so he's mostly that. But Alucard looks his legit-est in maybe a decade this year. That Yuna win was something I'd expect from someone on, say, Zero's level, maybe even Ganondorf seeing how he struggled with Chun Li. (That match is weird.) He's been weak in the past but Simon is a true video game icon. I think some of that legacy has passed down over the many years since he was unveiled. He's not loved, but he's Nintendo proper now as opposed to whatever Mega Man is.

I don't think Geralt can stand up to him. His win against Rosalina showed that even the newest and weakest Nintendo characters can cause him some struggles. Simon probably drives a stake into the Witcher tonight.

transience's prediction: Simon with 53.55%

Leonhart’s Analysis

Geralt looked rough in round 1 against Rosalina, especially early on. Nintendo (and Mario in particular) has looked pretty solid in this contest though, so that might not turn out to be as bad of a showing as we initially thought. Don’t get me wrong. Rosalina isn’t anything special, but she’s not turbo fodder either. I think Simon will do better than her, but I wouldn’t say he’s made the leap into being a strong character yet. As we’ve seen from other characters of Hayabusa’s caliber and tier, losing that match said more about him than it did about Simon.

Why in the world did I pick Ryu Hayabusa to win three matches?

Leonhart’s Vote: Simon Belmont

Leonhart’s Prediction: Geralt with 53.21%

Kleenex’s Analysis

Seeing 2B win the other day has given hope that yes, characters from the past few years can, in fact, beat low tier Smash characters! This match is similar. I think 2B is probably a little bit stronger than Geralt, but I also think Simon is a little bit weaker than Ness. So basically I expect this to end up similarly to the 2B match. I could definitely see Geralt end up flopping, but this should be a close, winnable match for him. If anything, it’d be nice to have a few new midcarders around here.

Kleenex’s Prediction: Geralt with 53%

Guest’s Analysis - Janus5k

One way to look at this match is to ask whether or not Geralt is better than Ryu H. On the one hand, Ryu is older and a ninja, and the former has proven to be pretty useful. On the other hand, Witcher 3 would annihilate any Ninja Gaiden game, and Geralt is very recognizable/visually appealing and from what I can tell Witcher fans love the guy. His 56% on Rosalina also looks surprisingly okay in retrospect; while I don't think she's on the level of even the Dededes and K. Rools of the world she's probably still somewhat respectable. Meanwhile, Ninja Gaiden just doesn't seem relevant anymore, and for a third party franchise that's probably more damning than it might be on this site. Ryu's recent results have also been pretty mixed and it's unclear if his win over the Chief is even meaningful.

This new and improved Simon is still kind of an enigma besides the Ryu match. Trying to make sense out of SmashFEAR and lower-level Nintendo hierarchies is pretty wacky right now (to say nothing of trying to compare Geralt to characters like Shepard), so I'll go with my instinct of Geralt > Ryu H and take the Witcher here. I wouldn't be too surprised to see him looking like Luigi in that Simon trailer though.

Guest prediction: Geralt with 52.25%

Crew Consensus: Geralt wins *insert something clever here*

phew

glad transience decided it was a horrible night to have a crew Curse

_Dog_ posted...

@Lopen posted...

Captain Toad vs Peach is interesting in that I think that could be our first fairly certain case of rSFF if we ever got the match. Like I definitely think Peach is likely a bit stronger indirectly but I would take her to fold against most Nintendo characters, especially Mario characters, hard, Captain Toad being included in that set, because no one actually likes Peach.

We need it as a bonus poll dammit.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2506-limit-division-round-1-princess-peach-vs-princess-daisy

Yeah even less people like diet peach than og peach good point

LeonhartFour posted...

because I didn't think MGS sucked as badly as ME now

I was wrong

The fanboyism is strongn in this one.

I’m surprised I’m the only one after round 1.

MasterMoltar posted...

I’m not sure what number she needs to hit relative to Fox to look good going into next round, but I feel like as long as she doesn’t undershoot him by a lot, she should be fine.

i'm scared

Round 2 – Pac-Man vs. Bayonetta

Moltar’s Analysis

Pac-Man
Round 1 - 71.38% vs. Sans

Bayonetta
Round 1 - 64.40% vs. Riku

Both looked good in Round 1, but even though Riku and KH have looked bad, I’m still very impressed by Bayo’s performance. Sans and Undertale have left a stink on these contests, and Draven bombing showed that GameFAQs does not forgive and does not forget. That means that Pac overperformed and isn’t going to be some beast here.

I believe Bayonetta easily passes the Pac-Man test as GameFAQs both knows and likes her.

Moltar’s Bracket: Riku (lol)

Moltar’s Prediction: Bayonetta – 61%

transience’s Analysis

Man, what do you do here? Both characters looked like gods last round. We've focused on Nintendo doing well, and yeah, of course they would do well, but I think the most surprising results so far have been these faded mascot characters. I just wrote about it with Simon and we've seen countless dudes, from Crash to Spyro to Sonic characters all do about 4-5% better than we expected. Pac-Man is the ultimate form of that.

Bayonetta.. she's really come on as new Dante, but with a little bit of Smash thrown in. She's way more popular than her game and she's become Nintendo-lite. You might not have played Bayonetta but you know the character and you probably like her. I'm not that surprised that she beat Riku because Riku sucks, but going so big was pretty impressive. Sora may have lost to Red but he was right there. That Riku win is pretty legit.

Pac-Man's win over Sans is really hard to gauge, but it's hard not to be impressed. Sans isn't bottom-tier garbage. That dude has some fans. I have no idea what to do here. I guess I'll go with the icon, despite being pretty high on Bayonetta. Do Nintendo fans back Bayonetta over Pac? Just because of Smash? I dunno. Maybe.

transience's prediction: Pac-Man with 51.55%

Leonhart’s Analysis

Bayonetta was probably the most impressive character in round 1 to me. Sure, Kingdom Hearts has looked pretty bad all around, but I picked Bayonetta with the assumption that Riku would suck and she still blew past my wildest expectations for her! It’s possible that she’s made “the leap” into being a strong contest character. At the same time, Pac-Man’s margin of victory over Sans is perhaps the most astonishing result we saw in round 1 (other than maybe Ammy/Draven for its sheer absurdity).

However, it’s more likely than Sans is just really weak, and Bayonetta is much more likely to be a lot stronger now because of Smash than Pac-Man is. I like her to look good again here.

Why didn’t I pick Bayonetta to win three matches?

Leonhart’s Vote: Bayonetta

Leonhart’s Prediction: Bayonetta with 61.62%

Kleenex’s Analysis

I guess Bayonetta wins this? Pac-Man blew the fuck out of Sans last round, but that’s probably more on Sans than Pac. I suppose it’s possible that ICONIC CHARACTER MANIA is running rampant on this contest and Pac-Man got a big boost, but I’ve got my money on Bayonetta here. She...might even be able to make it to the division finals?

Kleenex’s Prediction: Bayonetta with 58%

Guest’s Analysis - DoctorJimmy133

In the first round, people were really down on Riku because Bayonetta almost doubled him in a debated match, but what we've seen from Sora and Aqua doesn't indicate a massive KH deboost. I think Bayonetta's performance was as impressive as it looked, and if she replicates this strength in the next two rounds, we should seriously consider her against Auron in the division finals.

Here's my explanation for why Bayonetta kicks ass: Nintendrones. You know, the sort who automatically vote for garbage no one is looking forward to in the monthly hype polls if it's Nintendo-related. Bayonetta looked to be a respectable fodderliner based on her 2013 appearance just from one game on PS3 and Xbox 360. Since then, she's of course appeared in Smash, and had Bayonetta and Bayonetta 2 released on Wii U and Switch (as well as PC for the first game). So, take her already respectable strength from 2013 and add an army of Nintendo fans who have now played as her in both her own series and Smash 4, and you've got a recipe for a hot new midcarder. Even better, she's far from generic so she'll age better than most modern characters.

As for Pac-Man? It's hard to say how good Pac-Man is given his fodderific R1 opponent, but since he's now in the Smash playable cast, it's safe to say he's no weaker than last we saw him. He may be too strong to serve as a fodderline test. Regardless, Bayonetta will pass him with full marks.

Bayonetta wins with 60.01%

Crew Consensus:Bayo stomps on Pac-Man

oh man I am either going big today or getting killed

I agree with you. I bet that makes you feel safe!

regardless of who wins, those Bayo picks are too high. Pac would probably embarrass Riku too.

Depends if you think Pac-Man got a Smash Bros. boost. If not, a weaker Riku could still defeat Pac-Man (or at the very least would barely lose).

transcience posted...

regardless of who wins, those Bayo picks are too high. Pac would probably embarrass Riku too.

Exactly how bad is that dude supposed to be?

transcience posted...

regardless of who wins, those Bayo picks are too high. Pac would probably embarrass Riku too.

Eh, I think you're still making too much of Sans. After what we saw from Draven (I know, not the same thing), he's more likely to be bottom tier garbage than for Pac-Man to suddenly be a beast. I'd probably pick Pac-Man to beat Riku at this point, but I just can't imagine him hitting mid-60s.

ZeldaTPLink posted...

The fanboyism is strongn in this one.

I mean I really did pick Zelda to go low because I thought The Boss could hold up, and she's had really solid performances in recent contests

I guess I should've just stuck to my original gut feeling that Metal Sonic is just pathetic (despite the rest of Sonic Team looking pretty good) and saw that as a big red flag instead of a sign of potential strength for him.

STElNER posted...

MasterMoltar posted...

I’m not sure what number she needs to hit relative to Fox to look good going into next round, but I feel like as long as she doesn’t undershoot him by a lot, she should be fine.

i'm scared

...Yeah.

To be fair, this makes D. Va look about as strong as Lloyd Irving (if you assume this Fox is a little stronger than the 2010 version) so Captain Toad just needs to be able to get 65% on that for Aerith to be in good shape...!

yep she's boned

Think D.Va might be the weakest character in round 2 this contest.

Nah, that was either Velvet or Aya.

Well, I guess it could be D.Va if you think Fox beats Yoshi (or could at least make a run at beating him).

I'd probably take Velvet or Aya over D.Va but it'd be close. They're all looking like mid-high fodder though.

Round 2 – Auron vs. Vincent Valentine

Moltar’s Analysis

Auron
Round 1 - 65.44% vs. Lucina

Vincent
Round 1 - 51.89% vs. Magus

lol vincent

I feel like I’m giving him too many passes, but I don’t think he’s going to get crushed here. There’s reason for Magus to have looked good on him last round after Chrono Trigger in general looked good these past few years.

Auron should have this though, as he looked fine in R1 and hasn’t given me any reason to doubt him here.

Moltar’s Bracket: Auron

Moltar’s Prediction: Auron – 54%

transience’s Analysis

I'm excited to see this one if only because I want to know if Magus is legit. After round 1 it's awfully hard to give Vincent much credit.. but I also just watched Yuna get stomped by Alucard. It's becoming harder and harder to find good performances by FF7+ characters. It's possible that Auron wins this with like 54% and we're all completely baffled.

Vincent's failed twice though and I feel better betting low on him, especially after I went all in on him last round and he needed the night vote to save him from Magus. Magus lost to a bag of sand once and Vincent almost lost to him. That's wild.

transience's prediction: Auron with 60.59%

Leonhart’s Analysis

I’m really curious to see what the percentages look like here. We’ve never really seen FFVII get the doors blown off of it by SFF from another character from a different game in the series. There’s a part of me that thinks Vincent will hold up like a champ because of that despite how awful he’s looked the last two contests. It’s also possible that Chrono Trigger is on the upswing this year, and if Vincent keeps it close, that would be another indication of it (although we won’t really get a good idea until tomorrow with Frog). I honestly wouldn’t be totally stunned if Vincent somehow won this either because who knows with this series anymore.

Leonhart’s Vote: Auron

Leonhart’s Prediction: Auron with 55.55%

Kleenex’s Analysis

I’m going to give Vincent a little credit here and say that I really do think the Chrono Trigger characters are jacked up this year, so the near loss to Magus may not be quite as bad as it seems at first blush. But he’s still clearly lost a step or two or three from the days when he was a legit Noble Nine breaker. Auron, (a Noble Nine breaker himself !) shouldn’t have too much trouble here. I expect this to be a clean victory as Vincent’s fall from grace continues.

Kleenex’s Prediction: Auron with 55%

Guest’s Analysis - SuperNiceDog

Easy win for Auron, especially after Vincent almost lost to Magus. Vincent is not getting in Smash don't worry. Something in the high 50s/low 60s.

Auron wins with 62%

Crew Consensus: Auron moves on.

finally I'm not the one getting hedged in on percentages

Round 2 – Sub-Zero vs. Claire Redfield

Moltar’s Analysis

Sub-Zero
Round 1 - 62.57% vs. Shulk

Claire
Round 1 - 53.58% vs. Ren Amamiya/Joker

Both of these characters did what they needed to do in R1, which means I’m going with me pre-contest notions here. Sub-Zero was the stronger of these two historically, and barely beating Joker didn’t do anything to make me think Claire is pulling off the upset here.

Moltar’s Bracket: Sub-Zero

Moltar’s Prediction: Sub-Zero – 57%

transience’s Analysis

Sub-Zero had a great round 1. Dude has been showing up for 5 or 6 character battles now and he's always been really good. It's shocking that we didn't get to see him until 2006. I blame that 2002 Scorpion bracket placement that made people think he was the guy. Nope.

Claire beat Joker.. we don't have a good sense of where Claire is, or where Persona is for that matter since Yu went against Vivi. Leon went down easy to DK though (another icon showing out this year) and it's hard to see Claire doing a whole lot. She's probably better than Shulk, but by how much?

transience's prediction: Sub-Zero with 61.88%

Leonhart’s Analysis

The other three matches today at least have some potential intrigue to them. This one really doesn’t. Joker would have to be a lot stronger than Shulk for Claire to have a chance here, and the odds of that aren’t great, as much as I’d love for it to be true. Looks like we’re headed for the third round of chess in the park between Auron and Subby!

Leonhart’s Vote: Sub-Zero

Leonhart’s Prediction: Sub-Zero with 59.68%

Kleenex’s Analysis

Claire is the only RE character who hasn’t really looked like total garbage, though beating Joker might not really be all that much to write home about. Claire isn’t even in the same league as Sub-Zero and has no real shot here.

Kleenex’s Prediction: Sub-Zero with 62%

Guest’s Analysis - pjbasis

Coming HOT off her win over a silent protagonist of a JRPG, Claire is ready to tangle with a WESTERN character. Easy peasy you might say!
But hold! Joker was a new character, and Sub-Zero is very old! However mortal kombat is associated with DC comics, while Capcom is associated with Marvel!

Marvel beats DC to the tune of 70%! Shulk may be a JRPG protagonist with smash drugs running through his veins, but he still came up way short. Also he's a very NEW character and he TALKS, which makes him weak. Chris Redfield's little sister can't be this weak!

Sub-Zero sneaks one out with 55%!

Crew Consensus: Subby wins at the freeze.

That's a lot of exclamation points!

If Vincent somehow wins, does that mean Magus is better than expected or that Auron fell off a cliff too ?
Because so far, Final Fantasy has been mostly bad.