Character Battle X Contest Analysis Crew - Part 4

Big Bob posted...
Can someone tell me how Metal Man became a board meme?


HaRRicH has been trying to get him into the contest for years just so we can see how a Robot Master would do.

And we're about to find out. I feel like if you narrow the focus of Mega Man, it gets weaker and weaker. You need to go broad and Metal Man isn't broad.
Sir Alex 11/1/2018 3:51:23 PM#52
Just gonna toss in here, as another perpetual lurker, that these Crew writeups are super cool and entertaining. I look forward to them every contest. Thanks for all the hard work y'all put in!
transience 11/1/2018 4:05:36 PM#53
what would be broad for a robot master? metal man is probably #1 on that depth chart, because the first thing anyone thinks of when they think of mega man weapons is the metal blade. I do kinda feel like the alternative to mega man should be proto man though, and we've gotten that a few times already.
xyzzy
The point is you can't go broad on a Robot Master since most of them are only in a single game. When you narrowed Mega Man games down to individual games in Games Contests, they were all pretty middling. Mega Man as a series and Mega Man characters as a whole are pretty strong.

I've seen HaRR say that Metal Man's ceiling is Protoman like you did, and I just can't see that.
(edited 11/1/2018 4:10:08 PM)report
Lopen 11/1/2018 4:14:23 PM#55
Wesker may not be able to break 75% on many characters but I do feel he can break 75% on sunglasses, at least, so it almost worked

But yeah I don't think Metal Man is touching Protoman. Dr Wily definitely feels like the proper ceiling to me.
No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
HaRRicH 11/1/2018 4:23:18 PM#56
Big Bob posted...
Can someone tell me how Metal Man became a board meme?


The people demanded it and SBAllen saw a wave so big it washed out the fact Metal Man wasn't included in the nomination database.

MetalmindStats, you make me proud. Sharp guy!
Nominate METAL MAN for 20XX!
https://imgur.com/Dr4NAeq
HaRRicH 11/1/2018 4:27:07 PM#57
For those who want a final look at my original pitch ALMOST EXACTLY FIVE YEARS AGO TODAY:

11/3/13
+ Nominate METAL MAN! [Character Battle 20XX]

Welcome to the official Metal Man rally: where men become Men.

http://tinyurl.com/kmnvtgn
http://tinyurl.com/payzqkw
http://tinyurl.com/k92uzxl


It’s time we see a Robot Master. Mega Man-games are awesome largely because of its great casts of bosses, right? Metal Man is an iconic RM from Mega Man 2, the most classic MM-game. He’s the man we need to cut this streak and get one into a contest!

Sure, he’s a memorable boss from a legendary series known for its focus on bosses...but maybe you’re not sold yet. That’s okay -- his legend goes beyond that. Defeating him gave you the power of Metal Blade, which famously wrecked most of your enemies in this difficult game. This power encouraged savvy players to fight him first, then use his power through-out the rest of their quest.

“Yeah, but does anybody actually like him?” Se7enthrust’s most recent “Save My Mega Man Boss”-contests suggest people care about Metal Man. He lost to Pharaoh Man in one championship, but he also redeemed himself in another championship when he skunked Air Man 59-0. Since Metal Man was the only RM to make it to the end of both contests and MM2’s cast had the most support of any MM-game, Metal Man looks like Board 8’s safest choice.

Metal Man can also rock in a contest. In fact, his timing is perfect since Mega Man just had his best Character Battle yet; he beat Charizard despite Zero’s LFF and nearly beat Mewtwo + Pikachu COMBINED in a year of Pokemania, so MM-nostalgia is strong today. The fan-reaction to Capcom’s apathy, success of Mighty No. 9’s Kickstarter, and addition of Mega Man in SSB4 support this notion too.

Speaking of SSB4, did you know Nintendo showed off Metal Man and Metal Blade first in Mega Man’s power-montage?

http://tinyurl.com/loqryp8
http://tinyurl.com/lfy3xm6
http://tinyurl.com/ooegtvq
http://tinyurl.com/okjs4en


Let’s be real: Mega Man, Mega Man X, and Zero are probably out of reach in a contest...but here’s my bold prediction: Metal Man will be the next strongest Mega Man-character, which means he’d have to beat Proto Man. The argument is simple: the role of Robot Master is more iconic, MM2 >> MM3, and Metal Man even sneaks into MM3 to steal some spotlight. I don’t expect MM9-DLC, MM10, and a whistle to save Blues here. If Metal > Proto, that means Metal Man could have scored the upset on Ike this past contest...or even challenged Epona!

Even if he falls short of Proto Man, it’s hard to imagine Metal Man bombing. He’d definitely beat Dr. Wily, for example; RMs are much more anticipated than Dr. Wily’s fights and a lot of players don’t complete many MM-games, so recurring eyebrow-raises aren’t enough. Pit him against Servbot, and you’d see a certain 2002-result get exposed. Like any worthwhile character, he could at least crush Sigma and Roll combined. Metal Man has some range, but he won’t go too low -- he beats these other MM-reps we’ve seen before.

Character Battle 20XX: you know who to pick first.

http://tinyurl.com/p5l7wzo
Nominate METAL MAN for 20XX!
https://imgur.com/Dr4NAeq
transcience 11/1/2018 4:50:12 PM#58
oh I don’t think metal man’s ceiling is protoman — just that he seems a better classic mm alternative to mega.
add the c and back away
iphonesience
transcience 11/1/2018 5:46:52 PM#59
I thought N fans would be able to turn the most glacial lead increase in contest history around but I guess not!
add the c and back away
iphonesience
transcience 11/1/2018 5:49:33 PM#60
that match’s map is pretty cool. it’s basically NA vs. the world, and for once, NA lost
add the c and back away
iphonesience
(edited 11/1/2018 5:57:16 PM)report
Expected results, so far.
Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
transcience 11/1/2018 6:10:44 PM#62
barring a rally: next
add the c and back away
iphonesience
Well, it was worth a try :(

Metal M A N: the winner in our hearts!
hahahahaha I couldn't help but laugh when I saw that Ammy result

Draven might finish dead last instead of Cayde-6
We do have a 6 day Thanksgiving break during this contest where we won't have any contest matches going on, so maybe a Cayde-6/Draven bonus match during the break would be interesting to see. It might even be a case where the winner overperforms what the final raw x-stats say should happen because of Voter Apathy Factor.

Although Voter Apathy Factor would only come into play if we decide to run more than one bonus match at the same time. Voters would otherwise abstain from Cayde-6/Draven if it's the only match currently running.
Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as BK_Sheikah00, Guru Champ!
(edited 11/1/2018 7:45:54 PM)report
If we're going to have any sort of joke bonus poll, it has to be Draven/Sans.
6 bonus polls are better than 1
That is, if we can even think of 6 bonus polls to run during the Thanksgiving break.
Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as BK_Sheikah00, Guru Champ!
scaryice 11/1/2018 8:12:36 PM#71
LusterSoldier posted...
That is, if we can even think of 6 bonus polls to run during the Thanksgiving break.


Favorite Mega Man 2 robot master.
Congrats to BKSheikah, the new Guru champ! Not that I'm bitter or anything...
HaRRicH 11/1/2018 8:16:19 PM#72
scaryice posted...
LusterSoldier posted...
That is, if we can even think of 6 bonus polls to run during the Thanksgiving break.


Favorite Mega Man 2 robot master.


Metal Man agrees with a smirk on his face.
Nominate METAL MAN for 20XX!
https://imgur.com/Dr4NAeq
scaryice posted...
Favorite Mega Man 2 robot master.


I doubt Allen would want to do any bonus polls that involve characters not in the bracket, as he would need to do match pictures for the other Robot Masters not named Metal Man.

It would be possible to do 6 days of Mega Man 2 Robot Master polls through a weird format of 1 match per day in round 1, then run both round 2 matches on Day 5, and the final on Day 6.
Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as BK_Sheikah00, Guru Champ!
Lopen 11/1/2018 8:24:25 PM#74
I'd like Metal Man vs Metal Sonic honestly.
No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
Mac Arrowny 11/1/2018 9:03:40 PM#75
MasterMoltar posted...


Man, what the heck is that Lara pic? She’s lucky everyone already knows who she is and she’s facing a weak first round opponent.


How do you mean? She looks exactly like she does in the new games. Unless you're implying that all new game style pics are bad?
All the stars in the sky are waiting for you.
transience 11/1/2018 9:04:49 PM#76
not a great day for dear old Guest today
xyzzy
garetha200 11/1/2018 9:07:30 PM#78
it's ok guest will get the ammy accuracy point

and that's the only challenge that matters of course
lordjers 11/1/2018 9:08:36 PM#79
Only Peru has Draven winning. Told you these guys were weird.

And two other countries but it's very likely they're made up of one dude each lol.
Backlog: Splatterhouse: Wanpaku Graffiti (NES). Last finished: Friday the 13th (C64). Splatterhouse (ARC). Friday the 13th (NES).
transience 11/1/2018 9:17:37 PM#80
I'm not really sure what to make of this Seph performance... it's right on target for what we all predicted and yet I can't help but feel underwhelmed. just another day with Sephiroth I guess.
xyzzy
Lopen posted...
Sixty? Come on.

My percentage is going to be closer even if Richter doesn't actually win.

Sixty percent good lord.

😂👌
does anyone even read this
@Master_Moltar

We're getting close to the end of round 1, so you'll want to post a new topic for Guest sign-ups for round 2.
Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as BK_Sheikah00, Guru Champ!
Lopen 11/1/2018 9:23:16 PM#83
Richter will cut the percent overnight

Get it below sixty please
No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
transience posted...
I'm not really sure what to make of this Seph performance... it's right on target for what we all predicted and yet I can't help but feel underwhelmed. just another day with Sephiroth I guess.


Yeah, I think we all know that Sephiroth isn't coming back, so we can't help but compare it to what he used to do.
Master Moltar 11/1/2018 10:47:29 PM#85
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7290

Tifa gets a big win.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7291

Mewtwo does okay in his match.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7292

Ocelot barely squeaks by Dedede.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7293

MMX crushes.

Crew Predictions: 50/56

Next Round Thoughts: Tifa/Mewtwo looking far less debatable than it did pre-contest. MMX coasts to R3.

Crew Prediction Challenge:

transience: 51
Moltar: 49
Leonhart: 47
Kleenex: 45
Guest: 44

Crew Accuracy Challenge: garetha200 gets the point for Tifa, Moltar gets the point for Mewtwo, Leonhart gets the point for Ocelot, and Leonhart gets the point for MMX.

Guest: 16 (BetrayedTangy, SuperNiceDog (2), pjbasis, garetha200 (3), ZenOfThunder, Ranticoot (2), Hbthebattle (2), NowItsAngeTime, spooky96, RoseChevalier, Lopen)
transience: 13
Moltar: 11
Kleenex: 9
Leonhart: 8
Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
Moltar I'm sorry
I'm Rose Coldsteel, from Legend of Coldsteel
LeonhartFour posted...
If we're going to have any sort of joke bonus poll, it has to be Draven/Sans.


I feel like Sans would win that pretty handily.

I mean, the Undertale people did their job. We got mad at them for ruining our contest, but we did check out their game.
"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.
I'm pretty sure Draven would lose to anyone else in the bracket. Even Cayde-6.
garetha is a genius
GJ BK_Sheikah
Master Moltar 11/2/2018 7:19:15 AM#91
Round 1 – Ryu vs. Lloyd Irving

Moltar’s Analysis

Ryu gonna be known as the Tales beater soon. He beat Yuri from Vesperia 5 years ago, and now he’s got Lloyd from Symphonia. Fighting game characters haven’t looked great, but Ryu is the strongest and most iconic. Lloyd isn’t going to challenge him here.

Moltar’s Bracket: Ryu

Moltar’s Prediction: Ryu – 66%

transience’s Analysis

I kinda laugh whenever I see the name Lloyd Irving. It just reminds me of an older, simpler time when he mattered.

Why is Lloyd here and Kratos Aurion not? I doubt it matters at this point as they're probably about the same. I haven't been very impressed by Street Fighter guys so far. I guess there's a chance that Ryu struggles next round so it'd be nice to see a good number here. Fortunately: Lloyd Irving.

transience's prediction: Ryu with 68.66%

Leonhart’s Analysis

I’m kind of impressed Lloyd still makes the contest every year even though he hasn’t won a thing since beating Wesker in 2005. Even Vyse and Laharl have eventually fallen by the wayside, but Lloyd remains. Ryu shouldn’t have any problems going big here, although I’m not sure exactly how high he’d have to go before I start taking any talk of upsetting Sephiroth seriously.

Leonhart’s Vote: Ryu

Leonhart’s Prediction: Ryu with 71.44%

Kleenex’s Analysis

What a world we live in where a Tales character won a match, and it’s not going to be Lloyd. For whatever reason, Symphonia still has some strength around here, and as a result I don’t think Lloyd ends up looking all that bad. I’ve actually thought Ryu has looked a little weak for a while now (relatively to expectations, of course), but he’s still plenty of steps higher than Lloyd and isn’t in any danger in this match.

Kleenex’s Prediction: Ryu with 65%

Crew Consensus: Ryu wins by KO.
Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
Master Moltar 11/2/2018 7:42:59 AM#92
Round 1 – Commander Shepard vs. King K. Rool

Moltar’s Analysis

Is King K. Rool in Smash?



oh yeah he is gg opponent



wait this is COMMANDER SHEPARD



goddammit that’s actually winnable for him

Everything from Smash has been competing with anything that’s not at least a midcarder. Shepard used to be pretty legit, but with the ME series dead, and after seeing Garrus struggle not too long ago, this match is in doubt. It’s yet another case of has Smash character boosted enough/has irrelevant character fallen enough. These are basically coinflips at this point.

Going to stick with Shepard but I’ve pretty much accepted this could go either way in the year 2018.

Moltar’s Bracket: Shepard

Moltar’s Prediction: Shepard – 53%

transience’s Analysis

There's this weird 1% chance that Rool ends up doing what Simon did, where Shepard is trash because Mass Effect is in the gutter. That would be kinda sad, though. If that happened I'd have to reevaluate every Nintendo vs. not Nintendo matchup in the contest. Shepard should win here, but he probably doesn't blow KKR out too bad just because he's the new smash thing. Even if he kinda sucks compared to others. In a normal environment, Lloyd should probably be about equal to KKR so it'll be interesting to see how this stacks up to Ryu.

transience's prediction: Shepard with 64.26%

Leonhart’s Analysis

I’ve seen some people talking about an upset here after the general Nintendo boost and Garrus’s narrow victory over Ramza, but I just don’t see it. I think Shepard will hold up a little better than all the other Mass Effect squadmates just from being the face of the franchise, and K. Rool is still going to be pretty weak regardless. He wasn’t in the DKC Returns games, so he’s not going to receive any benefit from that like it seems DK has. I think Lucina is showing us that just being in Smash without much else to your name isn’t going to automatically turn you into a powerhouse. Now Shepard might not do as well as he would have in previous years, but he still shouldn’t be threatened.

Leonhart’s Vote: Commander Shepard

Leonhart’s Prediction: Commander Shepard with 62.10%
Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
Master Moltar 11/2/2018 7:43:04 AM#93
Kleenex’s Analysis

SmashFEAR is real and Shepard better watch his back. Yes, I realize Dedede lost the other day (or did he? I’m writing this in the middle of the match), but there’s no doubt that going up against a Nintendo product not named Isabelle is a frightening thing. I can’t imagine K. Rool is really worth all that much, but given the tenor of this contest, who knows. Shepard has almost assuredly lost a step. He’s definitely better than faceless Western RPG protagonist, but I fear this match is going to be too close for comfort, especially given Mass Effect’s supposed decline. I’m still taking Shep Shep, but this likely won’t be the commanding victory he should have.

Kleenex’s Prediction: Shepard with 54%

Guest’s Analysis - DoctorJimmy133

The common line of reasoning for this match is as follows: The Mass Effect trilogy ended six years ago, and Garrus disappointed against Ramza; therefore, Commander Shepard will be weaker. King K. Rool ended up in Smash; however, this puts him in a similar position to Diddy Kong in 2008 and the 2010 vote-ins where Diddy looked bad, showing himself to be well below Captain Falcon and Midna in the Nintendo hierarchy. Furthermore, K. Rool will not be affected by the DKCR boost that Donkey got and may be even weaker than Diddy due to his being a villain rather than a player character, and lacking many Mario spinoff appearances. Shepard may look bad compared to 2013 because of a general Nintendo boost and western gaming deboost, but an upset is not really in question.

That about sum it up?

Shep wins with 59.16%

Confidence: 97%

Crew Consensus: Shepard rools.
Moltar Status: contest hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
garetha200 11/2/2018 8:05:21 AM#94
Heck yeah 3 for 3 accuracy points! If only I had this kind of accuracy on today's Oracle picks...
transcience 11/2/2018 8:55:14 AM#95
whoa, some serious range on king k tool of all dudes

my phone corrected rool to tool and i’m sticking with it
add the c and back away
iphonesience
I'm less worried about k tool being strong and more about Shepard having fallen off a cliff
Well, even if Shepard has dropped (and he probably has), I probably still take Shepard over Ocelot and Dedede over K. Rool.

Or at least Dedede/K. Rool are pretty close.
Yeah, I'd probably agree, which is why I still have him winning, even if not by a ton.
Submitted my guest analysis for Leon/DK.
"Nothing I could do!"
-Darksydephil

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