GameFAQs Contests

not bad Master Chief

better than Drake, yeesh

uh

nathan drake vs. miles edgeworth who ya got

Chief's starting to fall

Chief with the board vote?!

Lmao monokuma vs Spring breeze dancin who ya got

Auron - 69.10%
Vincent - 48.28%
Sub-Zero - 66.63%
Claire - 48.66%

oh my word Magus was the bracket favorite

transience posted...

huh, I thought Drake would be the fave here. thought I was going out on a limb.

Well, Drake did comfortably lose to a character that Tails pretty much went even with. Granted, Drake looked stronger in 2013 than he did in 2010, but Uncharted didn't do so hot in 2015 compared to what it did in GotD and Sonic Team seems to have finally stopped the bleeding (I think) so I just figured, yeah, let's just pretend that Boss-Tails 2008 and Boss-Drake 2010 can accurately predict this match.

dat AA board vote

Luigi just gained over 3%

Vincent's always had exceptionally poor bracket-ing. what was his percentage to win the Devil Division, like 6% or something?

transience posted...

Vincent's always had exceptionally poor bracket-ing. what was his percentage to win the Devil Division, like 6% or something?

Well yeah, but he was a total unknown and people still believed Magus was a beast.

But the bracketeers have been pretty smart this year, so I was kinda surprised they whiffed on that one.

Tails has never broken 55% in a match before.

He got squashed by Ezio last contest.

loldrake

I'm just glad Shepard isn't facing anyone who's worth a crap or I'd be getting really worried right now.

This is a reminder that DeDeDe vs. Ocelot is happening the day of a Nintendo Direct about Smash Bros.

And another 3% for Luigi.

Maybe the quadrupling isn't out of reach after all...!

Luigi on track to end the match with 927% of the vote

so uh

Drake vs. Master Chief who ya got?

I took Chief to win this 4-pack without a second thought when I made my bracket

But I also had Drake beating Tails so what do I know

I mean I don't think Tails 60/40ing Chief is totally out of the realm of possibility

although I think Drake probably brings this down to 55/45 or so by the end just because western characters have terrible early votes

Never had any doubt Chief would beat Drake. Even less doubt now.

Chief vs Tails however I'm a lot more worried about.

this is definitely the year for weak characters from 2002

Tails can triple his career win total this contest

I will say though that Master Chief getting the percentage he is, breaking 70% on the table, is more encouraging for his chances than Tails 60-40ing Drake is discouraging.

To me that implies we're looking at something that's more like 2004 Chief than 2003 Chief since he can actually blow out weak characters.

how much weaker is Goro than Kazuma though?

assuming they're equal Chief gets 58.87% on Bomberman

and of course if Kazuma is stronger (as he theoretically should be) that number goes down

Although at the very least, this does seem to suggest Chief isn't just getting ridiculously anti-voted since he's staying stable and not rising in percentage like crazy (although I guess there's still time for that).

Chief definitely benefits from the Communist Voting and Pac-Factor here

poor majima

I think the gap between main characters and side characters is going to diminish the weaker you get so while Goro is going to be weaker than Kiryu it isn't going to be by a ton.

Also yeah I'd hold off on saying Chief is gonna not rise much. He's already gone up 4% since the freeze and dude is regularly pulling 72% updates. But yeah as long as his anti voting isn't terminal he should probably be a low midcarder at worst imo. Which is possibly going to be enough to handle Tails. Should be an interesting match in any case.

Yeah, looking at it, he's still going up, so he might improve from here.

And something to keep an eye on:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3747-mushroom-division-round-1-big-boss-vs-edgeworth

If Edgeworth can noticeably improve on that performance, it'd speak well to AA's general improved strength around here and maybe for Phoenix's chances next round!

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7282

Auron does fine.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7283

lol vincent

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7284

Subby does okay.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7285

Claire curses us.

Crew Predictions: 42/48

Next Round Thoughts: Unless Magus is suddenly way stronger, Auron should be fine next round (or maybe Magus/Vincent is legit and Auron is screwed who knows). Sub-Zero remains the favorite next round.

Crew Prediction Challenge:

transience: 43
Moltar: 41
Leonhart: 40
Kleenex: 38
Guest: 36

Crew Accuracy Challenge: RoseChevalier gets the point for Auron, Kleenex gets the point for Vincent, and Moltar gets the point for Sub-Zero.

Guest: 13 (BetrayedTangy, SuperNiceDog (2), pjbasis, garetha200 (2), ZenOfThunder, Ranticoot, Hbthebattle (2), NowItsAngeTime, spooky96, RoseChevalier)
transience: 12
Kleenex: 9
Moltar: 9
Leonhart: 6

Alright Leon can I blame your analysis thread for convincing me to abandon Tails?

Like it was one of those matches I didn't think much about and just changed to Nathan when I saw you and a few others do it.

(in case it's not obvious the post above is only half serious)

well it's about time someone gives me credit for something instead of giving it all to KP

I've gotten so much wrong this contest. It's pretty much all Final Fantasy protagonists and western characters though. I expected nothing and I am still let down.

although I think I did give Tails a legit chance to win the fourpack and basically said whoever wins that match wins twice

never listen to Leonhart

not because he's wrong, but because the future changes

the future refused to stay the same

LeonhartFour posted...

although I think I did give Tails a legit chance to win the fourpack and basically said whoever wins that match wins twice

Yeah and I had Tails winning twice before.

That hurts.

also I did repeatedly warn everyone that I never win and I'm frequently wrong

looks like I might have nailed Kefka's path though...!

You guys that confident that Tails>Chief?

stay tuned to find out more!

Everyone who picked Drake is probably all but convinced Tails > Chief because then they can hold out hope that they're only slightly wrong instead of super wrong. Same thing happened in 05 when Knuckles beat Magus-- everyone started calling for Knuckles to win the division instead of having Squall rightfully mash him.

I still like Chief's chances though it'll be close. I'm feeling a Chief vs Donkey Kong style affair coming.

well this isn't damage control since I called for it from the start

I took Chief twice, so it must be right

LeonhartFour posted...

Although at the very least, this does seem to suggest Chief isn't just getting ridiculously anti-voted since he's staying stable and not rising in percentage like crazy (although I guess there's still time for that).

Though the earlier start time might be helping Chief out by making it easier for the youngest site users to vote at the start of the match. I don't know anything about the age demographics of the polls with this new start time, but the age polls have shown the youngest voters on average during the board vote/Power Hour with the ASV pretty much dead. The age polls have a 12:00 AM start time and there's no way to be certain that these age poll trends are similar for the 8:00 PM start time.

Can just say as a person who all but abandoned gamefaqs at some point last year this type of analysis topic is probably my favorite thing about gamefaqs. I just love reading this shit. Makes contests such a fun thing that they wouldn't otherwise be. I didn't even finish my bracket and still keep coming back to track this stuff here.

it’s always good to hear that people enjoy these, especially people who don’t post every day. writing four of these every single day is tough!

oh cool got my point, i'm good for this contest

Round 1 – Tifa Lockheart vs. Geno

Moltar’s Analysis

Is Geno announced for Smash yet?

No?

gg

Moltar’s Bracket: Tifa

Moltar’s Prediction: Tifa – 75%

transience’s Analysis

WHY DOES GENO KEEP GETTING INTO CONTESTS? HE DOES NOTHING IN SUPER MARIO RPG. HE LOOKS DUMB. HE GETS KILLED EVERY DAMN TIME. THIS IS, SOMEHOW, HIS SIXTH CONTEST APPEARANCE. MAY AS WELL RENAME HIM TO 'THE TRIPLING' CAUSE THAT'S ABOUT ALL HE'S GOOD FOR.

I actually have a medium warm take on TIfa due to my feelings on FF7 this contest -- and is part of why I have Cloud losing fairly early on in the varsity bracket -- but given that it's Geno, there's not much value in giving it just yet.

transience's prediction: Tifa with 72.45%

Leonhart’s Analysis

I wonder why SBAllen keeps getting the seeding order backwards with 3/14 and 6/11 because 6/11 is supposed to go on top in traditional bracket formats. He also can’t seem to figure out if Tifa’s last name should be “Lockhart” or “Lockheart” because he and CJayC both have gone back and forth on it. I bring these things up because those are more interesting and thought-provoking matters than this match will be. I suppose it’s possible Geno might get announced in Smash or something in between the time I write this and the time of the match, but it still won’t matter much because the gap is strength is too big.

Leonhart’s Vote: Tifa Lockhart

Leonhart’s Prediction: Tifa Lockhart with 74.84%

Kleenex’s Analysis

Incoming Smash Boost!!! Look out!!! Not really though. Regardless of whether Geno gets announced for Smash Ultimate halfway through this match, he’s still not going to win. That doesn’t mean he still can’t look good though. Vincent looked like grade-A trash the other day, and I’m pretty wary of anything Final Fantasy 7 going forward. It’s possible that Vincent is an isolated incident, and Tifa didn’t seem to lose as much of a step as Vincent/Cloud/Sephiroth back in 2013. She should still win here unless something is really wrong.

Kleenex’s Prediction: Tifa with 62%

Crew Consensus: GeNO

Round 1 – GlaDOS vs. Mewtwo

Moltar’s Analysis

fraud detection warning?

We didn’t get a great read on either of these characters in 2013. Mewtwo lol, and then GlaDOS benefited from a Nintendo split and then ran up against Snake and Kefka, who weren’t super reliable that year.

Portal is pretty old now and probably has gotten weaker, while Mewtwo and Pokemon is still very relevant. The big question here is if Mewtwo will overperform like Pikachu here, or underperform like Charizard.

I think Mewtwo looks good here, but moreso because GlaDOS is kind of irrelevant now, and we’ve seen some pretty big drops from characters that just aren’t doing anything these days.

Moltar’s Bracket: Mewtwo

Moltar’s Prediction: Mewtwo – 62%

transience’s Analysis

Hey guys, this was a triumph, am I right? I'm making a note here, huge success? Cakes, lies, delicious and moist, science to do, yeah yeah yeah?

Glados is the most played out character in existence. Gordon got killed by Bowser due to his increasing irrelevance, but nothing can quite compare to Glados. She might hold up better than Gordon due to being memorable, but not by much. She seemed like she was worth something back in the 2010ish era, but Portal is beyond dead now.

Leon's been leading an anti-Mewtwo brigade this year, and Charizard sure made him look smart, but I'm not buying it just yet. At least, not compared to Glados. She (?) was kinda sorta equal to Kefka and blew up Ike last year, but I think she's, at least, weaker than Terra and Mewtwo's probably around the 'zard in strength. gamefaqs has held on to long-since-dead jokes like this before, but I'm skeptical.

transience's prediction: Mewtwo with 60.45%

Leonhart’s Analysis

You know what I want to say here, but I’m not entirely sure it’ll manifest itself here for a couple reasons. The first is that Portal looked really, really bad in 2015. The second is that Gordon Freeman looked really, really bad a few days ago. This could mean that Valve properties have just fallen off of a cliff due to the fact that it’s basically gotten out of the business of making games themselves. It’s kind of a shame, really, because GlaDOS looked really good in 2013. I think she can maybe hold up a little better than Gordon did because Portal has been relevant more recently than Half-Life and because, well, GlaDOS is a real character. Not that being a real character is all that pertinent to being strong in these things, so I’m not sure I’d bet on that! Regardless, there’s a pretty wide range in which Mewtwo can fall here, and it’ll be hard to say how much it’ll mean for next round after what we’ve seen out of Gordon already. As such, I really have no clue how high to go here, but it won’t surprise me if I’m off by a lot!

Leonhart’s Vote: GlaDOS

Leonhart’s Prediction: Mewtwo with 63.13%

Kleenex’s Analysis

I’ll join Leon on the Mewtwo is a fraud bandwagon. His 2013 results are an aberration, and I wouldn’t put much stock in him being a bracket buster this time around. That being said, I also think GlaDOS’s 2013 results are also kind of fraudulent. They look better on paper because she won two matches, but who the fuck even are Cole and Ragna the Bloodedge? PokeFEAR really only seems to have stuck with Pikachu this year (and possibly Red), so while I would expect Mewtwo to come back down to earth for this contest, I think his floor is still higher than where an aging GlaDOS ends up at.

Kleenex’s Prediction: Mewtwo with 57%

Guest’s Analysis - spooky96

A very interesting match. Even though we all know Mewtwo is going to win comfortably, I feel like this is one of those few matches which will certainly indicate how far the winner goes. If Mewtwo can score over 75%, I think he'll probably end up winning the division. Anything below 70% and Mewtwo is screwed against Tifa. GlaDOS has no reason to have any strength whatsoever and it'll be a moral victory for her if she's able to break 35%.

If Mewtwo turns out to be a fraud, I gotta give credit to the users of GameFAQs back in 2013 as they knew and cared enough to allow Mewtwo to win as he'd have the best chance to stop Draven. I'm really hoping this wasn't the case and Mewtwo ends up being surprisingly strong.

Prediction: Mewtwo wins with 71%

Crew Consensus: Mew2 goes to R2

Somehow I ended up with the highest prediction of the regular Crew?

Huh.

Mewtwo being criminally underestimated here.

spooky96 posted...

Mewtwo being criminally underestimated here.

Like I said if he goes high I'd put that more on GlaDOS than on him.

I'd rather she held up and make Mewtwo look bad, but I don't know that I'd bet on it.