GameFAQs Contests

LeonhartFour posted...

The Mana Sword posted...

Also, I haven't really been looking at trend charts for the matches so far, but are trends basically dead after the first hour or so? Seems like the percentages barely move once they've settled after the initial rush.

Pikachu dropped a ton after the first hour yesterday, but trends have been kind of muted for the last few contests in general. Big vote swings feel like a thing of the past outside of rallies.

With how weak trends are, I wonder if any match would have a different result if it lasted only one hour instead of a day.

Pikachu vs Kratos next round is going to have a very large disparity between 1st hour and the end result most likely. Granted the result won't change, but the % sure will.

Yeah, Pikachu has a great board vote and Kratos has one of the worst, so the swing there will probably be pretty big, at least for this contest.

it’ll be like 65/35 at least

Round 1 – Kefka vs. L-Block

Moltar’s Analysis

oh boy

This match is looking like one of the most important R1 matches in the entire contest. The winner here has a shot at going to the Division finals! Good thing is a match between two reliable entities that haven’t caused people headaches and strife in the past.

‘lol’

Both these characters (using that term loosely in one case) have had wildly inconsistent results in the past, but actually have seemed to settle down to being midcarders in recent years. Kefka has done what has been expected of him in his recent contest showings, which is win in Round 1 against okay competition and then lose in Round 2 against someone that’s clearly stronger. L-Block, after winning the contest back in 2007, has beaten fodder and low-midcarders, but loses to high-midcarders and near-elites like Charizard and Tifa.

L-Block’s win over Auron in 2013 is the most impressive thing either of them did in their last outings, but that was because of a rally. So far, rallies have not been a factor, so it’s unlikely to bank on another one here, especially considering L-Block already had his run over a decade ago.

I wouldn’t feel good about taking either character here, but Kefka seems a little more solid (than a block).

Moltar’s Bracket: Kefka

Moltar’s Prediction: Kefka – 55%

transience’s Analysis

Oh man, could the struggles of old Square give Kefka a loss to the block? It would be apropos. Kefka seems to oscillate between contests. Sometimes he's total garbage and sometimes he puts up surprising results. Pre-contest, I kinda liked him to take out Yuna, though I didn't really have any strong feelings on it.

But now, L? L-Block is a decade past its prime, in a non-rally environment, that is as anti-joke and serious voter as you can get. I was looking at the user votes vs. total votes discrepancy the other day and I'm pretty sure the biggest gap is Wario vs. Monika, in favor of Wario. DDLC/Monika is a total gamefaqs kind of thing but you put the concept of a rally in and the gamefaqs base hardens against it.

What I'm trying to say here is that L-Block isn't going to catch a rally a decade later, that gamefaqs will back Kefka to protect one of its own, and he should be OK. But as for a percentage? Who the hell knows.

transience's prediction: Kefka with 59.95%

Leonhart’s Analysis

This is the most important debated match of round 1 because the winner has a path to the division finals. If what we saw from Kefka in CBIX was legit, he SHOULD win here. There’s honestly not too much reason to be skeptical of that other than the fact that he’s Kefka and he never makes sense. To be fair, he hasn’t put up a clunker performance since 2008, and it seems that Dissidia is partly to thank for it, mostly because he has good pictures to use now (and he’s gonna have a good one here, looking at his profile pic). Final Fantasy VI as a whole seems to have enjoyed a resurgence along the lines of Chrono Trigger as well, if 2015 is anything to go by.

As far as L-Block is concerned, joke characters never catch fire twice, but it will probably always have the most staying power here because of its 2007 run. It did manage to get a rally in 2013 and beat Auron, but then it went down without much of a fight the round after (and it was on its way to a big loss against Auron before the rally kicked in). I guess you could depend on another rally here, but it doesn’t seem like a consistent thing. Plus, the one time we saw L-Block in a 1-on-1 contest, it didn’t look all that great. It can still win, of course, because you can never trust Kefka or joke characters, but I like the clown here to win easily if nothing weird happens.

Leonhart’s Vote: Kefka

Leonhart’s Prediction: Kefka with 58.15%

Kleenex’s Analysis

L-Block is clearly not the world-slayer it once was, but after the championship run, it has kind of settled into a solid mid-carder role. I actually think the block looked pretty good back in 2013. He doesn’t need a rally to be noteworthy anymore, he just is inherently. A lot can change in five years - maybe people forgot about the 2007 contest by now and are wondering why a tetris piece is in a match, but I doubt it.

Kefka, on the other hand, is a false prophet. He’s constantly making people think he’s stronger than he actually is. Doing shit like losing to Nico Bellic and Tommy Vercetti (perhaps GTA protags is his true weakness). Take into account the fact that Final Fantasy seems to be on a downturn, I have a hard time seeing the block losing. I took L in my bracket without even a second thought, and I’m pretty confident that holds.

Kleenex’s Prediction: L-Block with 58%

Guest’s Analysis - Xeybozn

As far as I can tell, most of B8 considers Kefka the clear favorite here. And why not? Just look at his performance against Snake in 2013; Kefka got 35.46% of the Kefka/Snake votes. That's not just an "okay" showing, that's puts Kefka up there with the high midcarders and low elites. We should be talking about Kefka's chances against the Red/Sora/Big Boss winner in the division finals, not whether an joke from more than a decade ago can give him a match. It's not like there's any reason (other than "lol Kefka makes no sense") to think L-Block has a chance, right?

Well, I'm not going to say that Kefka is a bad choice, but I don't think this is nearly as one-sided as it looks at first glance. First, I really don't think that Kefka/Snake match is a reliable gauge of Kefka's strength. 2013 had a lot of weird things happening, so I tend to take those numbers with a grain of salt. Not to mention that Kefka lost to GlaDOS in that same match. Which seems more likely to you: Snake underperfoming in an environment where most heavy favorites were doing the same, or two historically weak characters suddenly boosting past midcarder status to near-elite levels? And if you do insist on taking 2013 results as gospel, I'd like to point out that L-Block got 37% on Samus, which would put it at the right level to make this close if nothing else.

OK, so maybe this might be a close match after all, but are there any factors that could point to an L-Block win? Well, registered users seem to support joke characters more than unregistered voters; that famous list of 2013 results where registered users would have flipped results includes reversing losses for ?-Block and Missingno (and no mention of L-Block/Auron, oddly enough). And to anyone who wants to claim the bonus votes will help Square, it hasn't yet. Oh, and if this match does end up being close, do you really want to assume L-Block has no rally potential? Because whenever I see these contests brought up on other sites, the big thing is people reminiscing about that time the Tetris piece won and how great that was. Not that I think L-Block will need it this round, but it'll keep this match from ending up close even if it "should" be a nailbiter. Also, when has Kefka ever made sense, am I right?

Winner: L-Block - 57.07%

Crew Consensus: Kefka laughs at L-Block in this Crew split

what

you guys are nuts

what the fuck

i have kefka but even if he does win it won't be by 59% goddamn

i don't even know anymore
i just picked l-block. square flopping gives me some confidence in him but kefka is kefka

Kefka finds a way to lose to Bomberman if he wins. That's something he'd do.

I love how we're split down the middle but neither side thinks the match will be close.

L-Block could get a boost from the TIL Reddit getting 2007 back in public consciousness...!

I think it could be a close match, but if it is L-Block probably gets a rally. With these votals, that'd be enough to swing it to a fairly easy win for L-Block. If you're picking Kefka to win, you should be expecting him to have a fairly high percentage so any potential counter-rallies don't even get started.

that's true rallying for L-Block would be the breath of fresh air these contests need so it will surely happen

Seriously though I think it's possible it could happen, but I'm not betting on it. Success is not guaranteed in its case as we saw in 2013. It got absolutely nothing in 2010 either.

good write ups. I don’t see L catching a rally in 2018 because the recent rallies have come from characters or games with home bases. there’s not a great place for L unless there’s a more general lulz type of forum that gets behind it. no more rallying on russia.com for me!

as for a percentage, it’s so hard to guess. I didn’t see Wario with 64% happening either.

Leonhart4 posted...

that's true rallying for L-Block would be the breath of fresh air these contests need so it will surely happen

Seriously though I think it's possible it could happen, but I'm not betting on it. Success is not guaranteed in its case as we saw in 2013. It got absolutely nothing in 2010 either.

Well if the block beats kefka (and that may not take a rally), it can get to round 4.

If it gets to round 4 the competition is not that huge either. Sora is square who is deboosting, Red is not that reliable and big boss is looking like crap.

A rally gets stronger if the character goes far on its own legs. What if 4-Chan sees the block in the Legends bracket?

I don't think L-Block has any chance of getting a massive contest-winning rally, just because there's no real core fandom to organize that sort of effort. It's more like I trust L-Block to get small rallies if needed in a close match, but it won't have those at the start of its matches and if it's losing badly enough from there nobody will bother rallying.

I think Kefka would win because logically he should lose because FF has been flopping left and right. But Kefka just makes no sense like that. Also I got burned picking against Kefka the last two character battles and don't want to be fooled a third time (doesn't help I had Kefka winning in Round 1 before wussing out and picking Zack in 2013).

On a more serious note, we haven't seen Final Fantasy VI/VII or Chrono Trigger in action yet this contest - those games' characters flopping would be the real deal as far as FF being done goes. So far we've just seen all these characters from "lesser" Final Fantasies like IV, IX, X, and XV. For all we know FFVI/VII are simply on a whole 'nother level (and we already know CT is).

I'm actually pretty excited to see this match because I do feel like either character could 60/40 the other.

Also you all can thank me for this match existing because SBAllen clearly borrowed it from one of my Fourpack of Fun topics...!

I actually picked Kefka over Arthas in 2010 and haven't picked Kefka since

Though I did go with Ryu Hayabusa in 2013 and that contributed to why I took Simon in that match

it's a cute match because both characters have a really wide range. L-Block could be up near, say, Vivi, or down in the fodder range. Kefka's been all over too.

Round 1 – Kazuma Kiryu vs. Bomberman

Moltar’s Analysis

So Kiryu got a very high seed due to Board 8 support, but don’t be fooled and think he’s going to be really strong here. Yakuza has never been worth anything on GameFAQs, while Bomberman is at least something site visitors know, even if they don’t care too much about it. If we’re talking about which character is going to get the apathy vote, it’s gotta be Bomberman.

Moltar’s Bracket: Bomberman

Moltar’s Prediction: Bomberman – 65%

transience’s Analysis

True story: I thought this was Kazuya from Tekken until I clicked on his picture today. Whoops! I was totally baffled as to why a Tekken dude would have a 2 seed. This is the hard hitting contest analysis you were waiting for.

Yakuza's made a nice push into the mainstream, and it's certainly the japanese content that this site craves. But it's also a bit too new for this site, not just the year of release but the genre of game too. Bomberman is the safe pick here. There's a Yakuza game of the year poll out there where it does all right, but those polls are misleading because they're competing against other modern games. Bomberman probably rolls on here without too much struggle, but who knows. I don't think people care that much about Bomberman either. At least everyone knows who he is.

transience's prediction: Bomberman with 62.41%

Leonhart’s Analysis

On paper, this will be a big upset due to the seeding, but I don’t think anyone here will be shocked by Bomberman winning. Yakuza has slowly been getting more popular, but it’s still far from mainstream, especially here. Plus, I don’t trust anything from Sega other than Sonic, and I barely trust Sonic anymore. Also, I think the Pac-Man Apathy Factor will play a big role here because most voters will at least recognize Bomberman, so he’ll rack up the default votes from all the people who otherwise wouldn’t vote in this match at all. Plus, Bomberman has always been high end fodder here, so Kazuma would have to have a good deal of natural strength to overcome these factors, and I just don’t think he has it. So congrats, Bomberman, on your first win since that time you beat a TV in 2002!

Leonhart’s Vote: Bomberman

Leonhart’s Prediction: Bomberman with 62.50%

Kleenex’s Analysis

Excuse me? Kazwhoma? Listen, it’s great that Yakuza has gotten a little more popular in the west. I haven’t played them, but people seem to enjoy those games, so it’s cool that the opportunity is there. But no one on GameFAQs knows who this dude is. I’m pretty sure he’s going to get mistaken for a Tekken character or something. If you want to point to the most overseeded character in the bracket, I think Kiryu might be your guy. This isn’t to say that Bomberman is some powerhouse, though. That dude sucks, but people at least know who he is. I’m invoking the Pac-Man Corollary or whatever Leon and Ngamer are calling it on this match.

Kleenex’s Prediction: Bomberman with 68%

Guest’s Analysis - tennisboy213

Who is Kazuma Kiryu and how did he get a 2-seed? Apparently Yakuza is similar to the GTA series and we know how that does in contests. Whoever wins this gets stomped next round anyway so this is only a 1-pointer. Anyway Bomberman has been in a few times and I was surprised to find out he isn't complete fodder. That should be enough to take it. With the seeding disparity the experts should beat up on the casuals here. This match is another example of old > new on Gamefaqs.

tennisboy213's bracket: Bomberman
tennisboy213's prediction: Bomberman with 58.88%

Crew Consensus: Kiryu gets blown up

I’m pretty sure he’s going to get mistaken for a Tekken character or something.

god dammit

lol

owned

I'm not sure how brackets are going to turn out here casually. Kazuma got a 2-seed with board support (indeed I nominated him because I had a few nom slots left and wanted to support friends - Bomberman actually falls into this category as well), and the casuals all things considered aren't doing that badly. Sully/Aya was close and Velvet was the favorite like she was with us. They even picked Master Hand. I don't think Kazuma's seed will trick them because he's just not Halo or GTA.

If Crash ends up being the overall the bracket favorite against Cecil there is no doubt in my mind Bomberman is the favorite against Kazuya overall; Bomberman like Crash and Spyro is another kind of forgotten mascot character who got a revival (though Super Bomberman R definitely was not that popular, it does exist, also he's in an AT in Smash I guess).

Should have moved Kleenex's above Tran's for just one time.

Oh, I kinda expect Bomberman ends up as the overall bracket favorite, especially with the low number of entries this year. I think most people entering brackets are people who at least are familiar with the contests and its history. Master Hand being the favorite over Noctis told me that much.

Kinda surprised how little people expect out of Kiryu, with the Yakuza games being million seller JRPGs in the West now. I figured he'd be a lock to beat Bomberman of all characters. Gamefaqs really does hate games made in the last decade, huh?

MasterMoltar posted...

OK, so maybe this might be a close match after all, but are there any factors that could point to an L-Block win? Well, registered users seem to support joke characters more than unregistered voters; that famous list of 2013 results where registered users would have flipped results includes reversing losses for ?-Block and Missingno (and no mention of L-Block/Auron, oddly enough).

L-Block beat Auron because of an outside rally (at least 5000 votes minimum), so it would make sense for the unregistered users to favor L-Block more than registered users there.

LusterSoldier posted...

MasterMoltar posted...

OK, so maybe this might be a close match after all, but are there any factors that could point to an L-Block win? Well, registered users seem to support joke characters more than unregistered voters; that famous list of 2013 results where registered users would have flipped results includes reversing losses for ?-Block and Missingno (and no mention of L-Block/Auron, oddly enough).

L-Block beat Auron because of an outside rally (at least 5000 votes minimum), so it would make sense for the unregistered users to favor L-Block more than registered users there.

True, but my point was that registered users also gave L-Block more votes than Auron. (Or I guess maybe Allen somehow forgot to put that match on the list of matches that registered users would have changed. Who knows?)

Or a large number of the people rallied had GameFAQs accounts.

I have a feeling registered users in general are pretty over rallied characters doing well. I expect Kefka to get over the line

transience posted...

I’m pretty sure he’s going to get mistaken for a Tekken character or something.

god dammit

negan for cbxi

Lopen's analysisx4

Alucard v Peach
Okay so Nintendo is winning everything, but I stand by the Nintendo fanbase actually not liking Peach much. She gets votes by default because it's the Mario character, but yeah, who could possibly care.
She's basically Pac-Man with a dress at best, which makes her the weaker Ms. Pac-Man. Alucard has lost a few steps but he can beat Ms. Pac-Man. I'm sure of it.

Alucard with 56.93%

Yuna v Godot
Godot looks super cool in that pic. I think he's going to overperform really hard here, especially seeing the joke that midcard FF has become. Enough to win? Of course not. But enough to make people speculate whether there's a Phoenix Wright boost (my money is that there's not) or whether FF really has become a total joke (... hmmm).

Yuna with 59.85%

Kefka vs L-Block
I have Kefka winning in my bracket. After seeing Final Fantasy fail again and again it's really hard to back the guy. I know Kefka often doesn't make sense, but I feel like every time he fails to make sense he does so in a way I dislike. Thus, he'll fail to make sense this time by choking vs the block.

Other factor is that L-Block's run might actually be far enough in the rear view that it could get a rally again. What's old is new again, and whatnot.

L-Block with 51.33%

Bomberman vs Kazuma Kiryu
Bomberman to me just feels like a character that may have become just a little too irrelevant for his own good at this point. I also feel like Yakuza as a series has made some reasonable headway into something almost mainstream, and Kazuma seems to be a very liked character among the Yakuza fanbase, which gives him a bit of an edge over Bomberman. I guess Kratos kicking ass also makes me hopeful for this pick.

It's kinda weird to say as we've seen relics like Spyro and Crash Bandicoot outdo expectations-- at least they've had rereleases lately, though. I kinda hope I'm wrong as I've always liked Bomberman, but I just can't shake the feeling that he might be the first irrelevant gaming icon to truly crumble here.

Kazuma Kiryu with 52.01%

I mean Bomberman has had a game on the Switch, too...!

also Spyro's re-releases aren't out yet!

Bomberman was doubled by an Assassin's Creed dude. If Kiryu is fodder line he should win easily.. there's only so weak he can be when Yakuza is one of the biggest hits among hardcore gamers the last few years. Seems like a perfect fit for the kinda fanbase in this site.

He did? Huh. I feel like I heard more talk about Spyro's rereleases than Bomberman's. I dunno. I'll be happy to be wrong as I like Bomberman but that's one that's been bugging me since the release of the bracket.

FSABot posted...

Bomberman was doubled by an Assassin's Creed dude.

Assassin's Creed dudes have done pretty well here

Kiryu could be at Vyse's level

his current level

today’s matches were pretty clear but tomorrow’s are all over. 4/4 will be tough to do, I think

MasterMoltar posted...

Apparently Yakuza is similar to the GTA series and we know how that does in contests.

It's a JRPG series, not a third person shooter.

I was just going by what I heard about it and from the screenshots I must say it looked kind of similar

tennisboy213 posted...

I was just going by what I heard about it and from the screenshots I must say it looked kind of similar

The only similarity is that they are both games based on the criminal underworld. The differences stop there.

GTA are open world games, while Yakuza has small areas you run around and get used to all the characters and locations.

GTA is a 3rd person shooter while Yakuza has you fighting with your fists or melee weapons, and you gain XP and level up.

GTA has driving as a big part of the game and as far as I know from the games I've played in the Yakuza series, theres no times you drive yourself.

GTA allows you to kill anyone, while Yakuza has you playing a guy who leaves the Yakuza and has high morals and won't fight anyone except those in the Yakuza, and never kills anyone unless its a dramatic moment.

Basically, comparing GTA to Yakuza is simply what ignorant people do who see its another crime game that takes place in a city. In reality its a JRPG thats focused on Japanese culture with a ton of wackiness.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_Japanese_role-playing_game_franchises

and after all that, it’ll still lose

Dammit, even Allen doesn't know Kiryu is what he's referred to.

literally 73% of brackets had Crash

I don’t feel comfortable about any of these matchups so far!

jfc kefka calm down son

even if his board vote is ridiculous, 70% in a debated match is incredible

the board is suuuuuper anti-joke. I wonder if Sans will get the same treatment or if people can accept him as his own dude.

I'm not wrong in thinking this is PATHETIC for Yuna, am I?

phoenix wright characters are on another level early on. the next update should push her to 63 or so.