GameFAQs Contests

Hey there!

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Hey, you!

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Yeah, you! Hi! It looks like you might be new here. Well, you came to the right place. I take it you’re interested in joining us here, right? Ehehe, I see it written all over your face, you’re super curious! Well then...

Welcome to the Contest Analysis Club!

I’m the president of the club, Master Moltar! Pretty cool name, right? The club also has several other members you should meet, they’re all really fun!

First up, we have transience! He’s very reliable and social, but sometimes can be a little forgetful. It’s okay though, no one’s perfect….well except for me, ahaha~.

Next, there’s Leonhart! He’s super smart, and the most technical member of the club. Some think he needs to lighten up a bit, but I like him just the way he is!

Then, there’s Kleenex! He’s full of energy and super spunky! His attitude does take a while to get used to, but some people find that charming!

And those are the current members, but I didn’t forget you! What’s your name?

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Huh? Guest? That’s a weird name...but I like it, ahaha! Congratulations, you’re the newest member of the Contest Analysis Club!

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What do we do? Well, in addition to fun activities and social gatherings, we’re all really big fans of analyzing contests! You showed up at the perfect time too, because a Character Battle just started! Our club looks at each match in the Contest and does a write-up about it. In the write-up, we talk about our thoughts for each match, and give a prediction of what we think is going to happen. Then we share our write-ups with each other and the world! It’s pretty fun!

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It’s not hard at all! Just put your pen to the paper...or keys to the keyboard as the kids say these days, ahaha. Everyone in the club has a different writing style, so it’s up to you to find the style that suits you best. The most important thing is to enjoy yourself here and have a good time!

I look forward to seeing how you express yourself. Ehehe~

Current Guest List: Send write-ups to mastermoltar@gmail.com

Dante vs. Cuphead - BetrayedTangy
Chloe Price vs. Lightning - SuperNiceDog
Spyro the Dragon vs. Chun-Li - pjbasis
Ganondorf vs. Neku Sakuraba -tkizzle
Vivi vs. Yu Narukami - garetha200
Victor Sullivan vs. Aya Brea - Xeybozn
Tidus vs. Donkey Kong - Sir Chris
Leon Kennedy vs. Dragonborn - Ranticoot

Zero vs. Primrose - Luster Soldier
Zidane Tribal vs. Knuckles the Echidna - ZenOfThunder
Noctis Lucis Caelum vs. Master Hand - MZero11
Monika vs. Wario - Korayashi
Yoshi vs. Shantae - handsomeboy2012
Velvet Crowe vs. James Sunderland - NowItsAngeTime
Pikachu vs. Scorpion - ZeldaTPLink
Kratos vs. John Marston - spooky96

Hooorah, my favorite topic of the season is back!

TAG

(also, good choice for flavor this year. I'm thinking this foreshadowing is going to pay off in a big way...)

Tag!

this topic is LEGEND. Been following since 2005

Master Moltar posted...

Some think he needs to lighten up a bit, but I like him just the way he is!

aw thanks Moltar you're the best

I'll take being the Yuri of the Crew

yuri best girl

tag

Round 1 – Dante vs. Cuphead

Moltar’s Analysis

It’s contest time again, my favorite time of the...year? Or however often we have them these days.

I’m pretty excited about this contest, as it’s been the first Character Battle in 5 years, and the first 1v1 24 hour match Character Battle in even longer. There’s plenty to talk about with all the new things that are being implemented for this contest, but we’ll cross those bridges when we need to in later matches.

Speaking of matches, this bracket is looking very great on paper. There seem to be a good amount of debatable matches, including some Round 1 bouts that could end up being worth a lot of points if you pick the right winner in them. There’s a lot of newcomers, a lot of familiar faces, and not a lot of Noble Niners. Taking them out and putting them in a double elimination tournament at the end really allows for the rest of the field to breathe. This allows for known upper-midcarders and near-elites, like Dante, to show what they got against other strong opponents.

Since this is the first match and new people might be reading this for the first time, I’ll explain why this blowout is going to happen. Dante has been a staple in these contests since 2002, and he’s proven himself against other strong opponents if you look through past poll results. Cuphead, on the other hand, is new and failed to make a dent in the 2017 Game of the Year poll. If there’s one thing about GameFAQs, it’s that it loves old things and too stubborn to love new things. A lot of the userbase here is the most fond of the 90s and 2000s, so characters from those times are usually going to beat out newer characters. It’s very unlikely Cuphead has the strength to beat a proven entity like Dante, especially when crushing weak opponents is kinda his thing.

Moltar’s Bracket: Dante

Moltar’s Prediction: Dante – 80%

transience’s Analysis

Hey everyone! I don't really pay that much attention to gamefaqs these days but I can't miss our first 1v1 character battle in 8 years! (That's as long as it was from the last character battle to the first one in 2002. Feels weird, huh?) The only contest-related topic that I've read is Leonhart's contest analysis and I don't agree with most of that. I'm going in pretty much blind here. Expect some Lopen-tier divergence here since I haven't been exposed to the groupthink and I'm gonna try and keep it that way. Hopefully that makes my analyses more interesting this time around, or at least the numbers will be weird.

Our first character is.. Dante? This used to be reserved for Nintendo godslayers like Mario and Link. When did Dante get announced for Smash? (Does that even matter to these things anymore? I say no.) Cuphead is surprisingly popular for an indie thing that was created after video games died for gamefaqs (aka 2004-ish) and has a visually appealing and instantly recognizable design. It's probably about as strong as that DDLC fad everyone is banking on! But, Dante is also well-known for beating the hell out of low-tier characters before utterly folding to the hands of someone more popular. I don't see any reason for this to change. (And no, Leonhart, he isn't beating Ganondorf. I will troll you via Crew writeups for the next two months.)

transience's prediction: Dante with 78.44%

Leonhart’s Analysis

While Dante has a reputation as a guy who comes up short in big moments, he always looks good in round 1. Always. Seriously, look at all of his round 1 matches, and it’s him blowing the doors off of his opponents, whether it’s 1-on-1, multi-ways, or even the friggin’ Rivalry Rumble. I don’t expect this one to be any different, although I think Cuphead can do pretty well for an indie game character. It did really well in the 2017 GOTY polls (for an indie game, naturally), so this is an unfortunate draw because maybe he could’ve done better elsewhere.

Leonhart’s Vote: Dante

Leonhart’s Prediction: Dante with 73.50%

Kleenex’s Analysis

I can’t decide if it feels like it has been forever since the last contest, or if it feels like it was just yesterday. Yeah, yeah, sure, Best Year in Gaming did take place just last year, but no one actually remembers that exists. It was a bad fever dream; and much like Rivalry Rumble and Quotes Contest, occupies a “wait did that actually happen?” space in my mind. The cloud of Draven and Undertale still looms ominously over these things, and a lot of the chatter pre-contest involved figuring out if rallies will happen and for which characters. I guess we’ll see. Not sure if the registered user thing is going to make a difference, but it shouldn’t matter too much for the first few days at least.

All that being said, I’m actually more excited for this contest than I expected to be when it was announced. I think the bracket setup is great - the champion section is an awesome idea. We still get to have a bracket full of new characters and midcarders, while still getting to see the big guys (or dying husks of the big guys) at the end of the contest.

The first match of the day is, as expected, an easy one, even with Link being absent. Dante is one of the stronger characters in the main part of the bracket, while Cuphead is not the kind of game that GameFAQs tends to gravitate towards. He’s got a neat character design, but that only takes you so far (note: feel free to reference this when I overrate 2B horrendously later on).

There’s no question that Dante wins, but I will posit that I think it’s possible that he manages to disappoint with how much he wins by. I think Dante has fallen over the past few contests and doesn’t hold as much cache as he did 10 years ago (4-ways kind of inflated his value IMO). Maybe the announcement of DMC5 changes that?

Kleenex’s Prediction: Dante with 74%

Guest’s Analysis - BetrayedTangy

So this match is pretty exciting for me. It'll be my first 1v1 character match I get to witness and the star of one of my favorite video games is in it. Too bad he has zero chance of winning.

Regardless of that I've still set a goal in my head for Cuphead. I want to see him break 30% on Dante which I think he can do. His game was really well received, plus Cuphead's art style might actually give him the pic advantage over Dante.

Maybe I'm just crazy and Dante pulls 80+, but a man can dream

Dante - 70%

Crew Consensus: Dante gets this party started with a win.

darn it I thought I was going to have the lowball prediction here

Master Moltar posted...

The only contest-related topic that I've read is Leonhart's contest analysis and I don't agree with most of that.

don't worry I don't either

Master Moltar posted...

(And no, Leonhart, he isn't beating Ganondorf. I will troll you via Crew writeups for the next two months.)

don't troll me! I don't have it!

troll KP and Lopen!

The toughest battle for me to decide was Drake vs. Chief.

Not that it matters as I see Luigi beating whoever wins that.

I went with Nathan.

The Mana Sword posted...

darn it I thought I was going to have the lowball prediction here

yeah I have no feel for percentages this year so I think I'm going to be all over the place

doesn't bode well for defending my Accuracy Challenge title

I refuse to believe Best Year in Gaming took place last year.

I would like to do Geralt vs Rosalina but I understand if you want someone more experienced

WitcherGeralt posted...

I would like to do Geralt vs Rosalina but I understand if you want someone more experienced

no experience required for the Guest

I think no experience is preferred actually

Will you promise to spend the most time reading my write-ups? <3

I like Dante with 65%. I feel that's a very bold bet but I like Cuphead's chances at not looking like complete fodder here and even maybe getting a mini-rally.

I almost went with like 85% because that's the kind of thing round 1 Dante would do

Link didn't even break 80% on Arthas back in 2010.

Nah. Dante won't be that good.

@transience

You are in so much trouble in the Oracle.

LeonhartFour posted...

WitcherGeralt posted...

I would like to do Geralt vs Rosalina but I understand if you want someone more experienced

no experience required for the Guest

I think no experience is preferred actually

Then I throw my name in the hat!

Dante with 87% cause he's a legend.

Make your time bacondorf.

Round 1 – Chloe Price vs. Lightning

Moltar’s Analysis

The last time we saw Lightning, she choked against Donkey Kong with Falco in the same match. It was a pretty embarrassing loss, but if she manages to blow it here, we’d have to make a new word for how bad that would look.

Chloe is a newcomer so we don’t really know about her contest strength, but from what we’ve seen of Life is Strange on this site so far, it’s nothing to write home about. It got rocked by Fallout 3 a few years ago...and that’s about it. I’ll take a Final Fantasy (which, if you didn’t already know, this website kinda loves) protag over a character from a game this site doesn’t care about.

Moltar’s Bracket: Lightning

Moltar’s Prediction: Lightning – 67%

transience’s Analysis

You could probably write an algorithm that picks matches based on company, year of release, genre and platform and get most matches correct. Here you've got a low-tier but recognizable and moderately liked Square character from 2010 vs. a niche and mostly liked adventure game character from 2015.

That's kinda all I need to know. This year's gamefaqs population is going to be pretty conservative in picking their faves since the only people left on this website are still fantasizing about the old days when Square and Nintendo were the only things that everyone played. Give them a double vote and I think they double down on these kinds of characters over new niche things. You'd need a rally of some sort to push Chloe up and, well, it ain't 2015.

transience's prediction: Lightning with 65.89%

Leonhart’s Analysis

Lightning put up perhaps the most embarrassing performance in CBIX by losing handily to Donkey Kong despite another Nintendo character being in the poll. If she loses this one, she might as well never come back. I’ve seen some people talking up the upset by saying Life Is Strange has gradually been getting more popular, but eh, I’m not seeing it. It’s just not this site’s type of game, I think. It was getting quadrupled by Fallout 3 in 2015 (which is what it got on inFamous in GOTD, for the record) before Tumblr helped boost its percentage, and I just don’t think it’s made any sort of massive jump in popularity since then. Plus, the game will be more popular than Chloe herself.

Now I’m sure people will point out that FFXIII and Lightning aren’t popular either, but most of the site will at least know who she is, so she can win with default votes and bracket votes. She’ll probably get some anti-votes, too, because she’s FF and that’s just how it goes, so I don’t think she’ll win in a huge blowout or anything. Losing to DK is bad, but she’s probably still high fodder and I think that’s better than Chloe will manage. Still, the second match of the contest has traditionally been a spot where an upset occurs, so who knows! But if Chloe Price wins a match, that might become my new least favorite thing in contest history (Chloe sucks).

Leonhart’s Vote: Lightning

Leonhart’s Prediction: Lightning with 60.58%

Kleenex’s Analysis

Finally! The #blessed day has come! Our goddess Lightning finally gets to win a match! After an embarrassing loss to literally Donkey Kong in 2013, it is time for redemption!

…

Listen, I get that GameFAQs doesn’t really like Lightning. Her best showing in a contest was before her game even came out. This also prompted me to find this poll when looking looking up results:
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4480-which-of-these-rivalries-would-you-most-like-to-see-in-the
Who actually nominated that rivalry? What sane person was like “yeah man, I love that great dynamic between Lightning and the robot pope”?

Anyway, I actually do like Chloe a lot too. She’s my favorite character from one of my favorite games to come out in the past couple years, so I’m happy to see her here. I don’t think she has any shot to win, as disappointing as Lightning may end up being. Life is Strange got nuked by Fallout 3 in the games contest (interestingly, this looks like it was before all 5 episodes were out, though?) and Lightning is from Final Fantasy, which still carries at least -some- weight here still. The fact that I even feel compelled to make some kind of argument for Lightning to win shows just how garbage I expect her to be.

Kleenex’s Prediction: Lightning with 65%

Guest’s Analysis - SuperNiceDog

Lightning vs who??? Most voters on Gamefaqs probably will not know who Chloe is. I didn’t, had to google search and look up who she was.

That being said, it is possible Chloe Price could get a rally. Life is Strange(the game Chloe is from)’s reddit has 56.3k subs which is a decent number, averaging 200 online or so during the day. Chloe looks to be a character very similar in vein to the demographic of the Undertale supporters from the 2015 contest. She is that modern, #metoo, #resist, short-haired/dyed hair 2010s feminist. Her pic screams “I don’t need no man, I’m an independent woman”. Exactly the type of character that could get backed by tumblr. Going up against the corporate product, traditionally sexy, and formerly hated Lightning.

Is Lightning still hated though? Back in 2013, in the heyday of her games, she probably was. Losing to DK in a 3 way was not a good look. But what about now, 5 years later?



Lightning comes up in 6th overall in a 2018 poll from a Nico Nico News, ahead of Tifa(!?). My overall feeling is that Lighting as a character is NOW liked a lot more than her games. It is not 2013 anymore, people do not hate Lightning as much as they did back then. They turned have their hate to the FF15 bros, and I believe Lightning will be one of the beneficiaries.

Back to Chloe, I don’t think she will get rallied. Her game, Life is Strange, was released 3 years ago, from Jan 2015 to Oct 2015 in a period of episodes. Enthusiasm has died down too much. Undertale only worked back in 2015 because the contest was held at the absolute zenith of the game’s popularity, same with Draven(League of Legends) in 2013. You have to have perfect timing.

https://twitter.com/ashly_burch?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

Her voice actor could possibly tweet about the contest though, she does have 125k followers, could potentially swing things. I do not think her fans will care enough to inform her though about the contest, especially this early on in it.

Overall though, it’s still Lightning vs who???? The average Gamefaqs voter just doesn’t know who she is. Free points basically, Lightning will have to go big, 70%+ to have a chance vs Dante, and I think she’s gonna test it.

Prediction: Lightning wins with 74% of the vote

Odds of Lightning winning: 93%

Crew Consensus: Lightning strikes once

Master Moltar posted...

The only contest-related topic that I've read is Leonhart's contest analysis and I don't agree with most of that.

Interesting. Do you think he's underrating Pokemon?

I just think looking to past results is fundamentally flawed with a contest like this. I’ll talk more about it as the contest goes on and we get more divisive matches.

Master Moltar posted...

. Chloe looks to be a character very similar in vein to the demographic of the Undertale supporters from the 2015 contest. She is that modern, #metoo, #resist, short-haired/dyed hair 2010s feminist. Her pic screams “I don’t need no man, I’m an independent woman”.

jesus christ.

tag

well geez if I had known it was THIS theme I would've signed up for whatever match

next batch I'm in for sure!!

yikes at SND's summary of chloe

Round 1 – Spyro the Dragon vs. Chun-Li

Moltar’s Analysis

Here’s the first match with two contest veterans going at it, even though neither is all that strong. Spyro has gotten smacked around by Morrigan a couple times (who in turn has been washed by Noble Niners). Chun-Li does have a win over Lara from a decade ago under her belt, but then got beat by Yuna, and more recently got crushed by Tifa.

Between the two of them, that Lara win is the most impressive thing here. Plus, Chun-Li has kept herself relevant with Street Fighter still being a thing. She’s got nostalgia and relevancy here, unlike Spyro who just has nostalgia. Chun isn’t a god or anything, but she should have enough strength to beat high fodder like Spyro.

Moltar’s Bracket: Chun-Li

Moltar’s Prediction: Chun-Li – 59%

transience’s Analysis

What is this, 2002 or 2003? This feels like a classic Dirk the Daring vs. Chop Chop Master Onion kind of match. I can't imagine anyone having fond feelings about Spyro today that didn't have them then, whereas Chun Li remains the prominent female fighting game icon. Spyro has Skylanders, but like, so what?

Spyro's main appeal is being moderately well-known and Chun Li trumps him there bigtime. Did you know that there's a Spyro Trilogy coming out next month for PS4 and XB1? Me either. Pre-order from GameStop now and get a free Spyro keychain!

transience's prediction: Chun Li with 70.41%

Leonhart’s Analysis

Spyro’s been getting an odd amount of hype for an upset here, and I don’t totally understand it. He won a match in 2013 against one of the weakest batches of opponents in the contest, and his original games are getting remade, so I guess some people are expecting him to get a hype boost. But Spyro still lost easily to Morrigan in round 2, and I’d never take Morrigan to beat Chun-Li straight up. Street Fighter is way above Darkstalkers (and Marvel vs. Capcom, which Chun-Li is also in, so it doesn’t really matter) in the Capcom fighting game hierarchy. I’ve seen people say Spyro is iconic (which is pretty debatable), but Chun-Li is way more iconic than he is. She’s the original fighting game girl, after all.

Now I think Spyro will probably do respectably here because he’s not ultra fodder and Chun-Li isn’t super strong, but I don’t think he’ll ever be in the match (Crew Curse here we come).

Leonhart’s Vote: Chun-Li

Leonhart’s Prediction: Chun-Li with 58.90%

Kleenex’s Analysis

While I was filling out my bracket, this was the match that made me realize I have no idea how much most of these characters are worth anymore. Yes, it only took 3 matches to come to that conclusion. Spyro sucks. Like, really sucks. He lost of Morrigan. Twice. Over the span of 11 years. He’s consistent! We have a couple data points on Chun Li, and she hasn’t looked that impressive outside of the female bracket in 2006, but that’s still better than anything Spyro has done. Even more recently, she was still worth like 30% on Tifa, which I have to imagine is better than Spyro would. Unless people are really, really, really hyped for that Spyro trilogy remaster (I’m sure like...three of you exist), I think Chun-Li should have the edge here.

Kleenex’s Prediction: Chun-Li with 59%

Guest’s Analysis - pjbasis

There's really no good data on Chun-Li, so it really just comes down to some raw popularity antenna feeling. Spyro is doing better these days, and he's got a hype remaster trilogy coming out real soon. Still, Chun-Li is a freaking icon, and should put him away with little trouble. Hopefully Spyro keeps it as close as he can, and then Chun-Li gets announced for Smash and almost beats Ganon and Spyro looks beastly.

LET'S GO SPYRO!

Chun-Li with 58.88%

Crew Consensus: Chun-Li kicks the crap out of Spyro

ready for a crew curse on that one

Round 1 – Spyro the Dragon vs. Chun-Li

Leonhart’s Analysis

Spyro’s been getting an odd amount of hype for an upset here, and I don’t totally understand it.

Because, this is one of those matches that would probably go the other way on Reddit or with the entire gaming public. Also, it's been a long time since the last character battle, so a lot of the kids who grew up with Spyro are older now.

whoa, I didn’t expect to be a full 10% offf from everyone here. you guys really clustered together. maybe there’s some match from some year that informs that pick but I can’t imagine Chun Li struggling with Spyro of all people.

tag

Master Moltar posted...

Did you know that there's a Spyro Trilogy coming out next month for PS4 and XB1? Me either!

ok but people i know who haven't even played a game in decades do

chun li isn't very good!

spyro is just worse

Chun Li with 70? Transcience I respect that, crazy but I respect it

The thing people hyping the upset aren't realizing is the amount of people that grew up with Spyro isn't that high. It wasn't some Mega Hit. It'd be like, 16 years ago, claiming people grew up with Billy Lee. I mean yeah Double Dragon was a thing that was known but I wouldn't exactly call him an icon of the NES either.

tag

STElNER posted...

Master Moltar posted...

Did you know that there's a Spyro Trilogy coming out next month for PS4 and XB1? Me either!

ok but people i know who haven't even played a game in decades do

I look forward to talking to them on gamefaqs

i'm not taking the upset i just thought that your ignorance was a badly made point

my ignorance of it was the point!

scaryice posted...

Because, this is one of those matches that would probably go the other way on Reddit or with the entire gaming public.

no it wouldn't

also wow I got super Price is Right'd on this match

transcience posted...

I just think looking to past results is fundamentally flawed with a contest like this.

I mean yeah probably although I don't think character popularity in these contests has really shifted a ton over the years with a handful of exceptions

but I never win anyway so who cares

we’ll see - I see a voting pool going from 100k to 50k to 30k to 10k, over a 5-10 year period, with a weird double vote factor thrown in for good measure and think that old 54/46 results aren’t especially reliable. I’m thinking more about the second phase of the contest when the real guys come to play.

transcience posted...

we’ll see - I see a voting pool going from 100k to 50k to 30k to 10k, over a 5-10 year period, with a weird double vote factor thrown in for good measure and think that old 54/46 results aren’t especially reliable. I’m thinking more about the second phase of the contest when the real guys come to play.

Well yeah, I think it can make a difference when the characters were relatively close in popularity to begin with, but the Noble Nine are still among the most popular characters and the guys we thought were strong back then are still strong. There can be some shifting among characters around the same strength level because they're kind of interchangeable, but Pokemon is really the only thing that's drastically changed its fortunes since 2002.

yeah, I mean that anyone from the Mega Man/Sonic/Cloud/etc groupings can be much stronger or weaker for any arbitrary reason whatsoever, much like Chrono Trigger was in the last game contest. you don’t even need a reason for something like that to tip the balance.

Pokémon’s a whole other thing, I think, as people have aged into it. it’s now 20 years old meaning you’d have to be at least 32 or so to be immune to its childhood influence.

transcience posted...

it’s now 20 years old meaning you’d have to be at least 32 or so to be immune to its childhood influence.

whew just barely made the cut

I didn't get my Pokemon vaccines when I was a kid so I'm infected