GameFAQs Contests
Best. Game. Ever. Contest Analysis Crew - Part 5
I started wondering how close this was getting to being the biggest semifinal blowout we've ever had then I remembered this http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/2453-tournament-semifinal-the-legend-of-zelda-vs-metal-gear So I guess not --- http://i.imgur.com/RHvCiY3.png |
The only possible winner is Mass Effect 3. This publicity will be good for its reputation! --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
Finals: Round 7 - Match 127 – (6) Undertale vs (1) The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time Moltar’s Analysis Undertale Round 1 - 50.95% vs Mass Effect 3 Round 2 - 55.74% vs Fallout 3 Round 3 - 54.84% vs Super Mario World Round 4 - 51.52% vs Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow/Green Version Round 5 - 51.33% vs Super Mario 64 Round 6 - 51.20% vs Super Smash Bros. Melee The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time Round 1 - 91.03% vs Hearthstone: Heroes of Warcraft Round 2 - 76.89% vs Suikoden II Round 3 - 64.96% vs Final Fantasy IX Round 4 - 68.18% vs Castlevania: Symphony of the Night Round 5 - 59.90% vs The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past Round 6 - 67.40% vs Super Mario RPG: Legend of the Seven Stars For a finals match, there's not much to say here if you've been paying attention to the contest. Undertale's rally gets stronger as the contest goes on because it faces stronger opponents. Its strength depends on the opponent, meaning whatever a strong opponent can do, it can do that +1. So if OoT is the strongest game in the field, then Undertale's rally is going to raise itself to that level and be just strong enough to top that. Yeah, Link/Legend of Zelda has risen up before in the face of rallied beasts, but it always falls short because that rallied opponent becomes that much stronger when facing it. There was L-Block There was Draven And now it's Undertale Fin. Moltar’s Bracket: Ocarina of Time Moltar’s Prediction: Undertale - 51% Transience’s Analysis Let's just jump right in. If anyone is expecting a rally to backfire because it's up against Ocarina of Time, they're wrong. Undertale has beaten some of the biggest classics in the world: Fallout 3, Super Mario World, Pokemon RBY, Super Mario 64 and Melee. It's grown stronger every round, from 60k votes to 90k to 120k to 176k yesterday. Ocarina of Time isn't some kind of silver bullet. It was once upon a time but it's not anymore. People won't abandon all of the aforementioned great games but then go "oh god, Ocarina of goddamn Time? Well that's a whole different story." This isn't Link from 2013, or Ocarina from 2009, or anything close to that. As the site has shifted, Ocarina of Time has become merely our best game as opposed to the gold cartridge by which all video games strive to. Maybe Chrono Trigger could have beaten it and maybe FF7 could have put a scare into it. We'll never know because Ocarina was gifted the contest final in the interest of limiting Zelda from taking over the contest. But the fact that it's even debatable says volumes. If this match is merely GameFAQs vs. outside sources then Ocarina loses and might even lose bad. After all, GameFAQs has grown to like Undertale quite a bit! Also, Ocarina has become the new FF7 in terms of antivoting. Everyone has finally realized that Zelda always wins and not Final Fantasy. I wouldn't be at all surprised if Undertale is winning at the freeze. That said, there are scenarios that, if they arise, could make this one really interesting. What if the bad taste in everyone's mouth from the Melee match hangs around? It's too bad Undertale/Melee wasn't the second semifinal and we could have rolled right in. Undertale has killed some classics and has done it so convincingly that it's embarrassing several fanbases. If Ocarina is seen as the last chance to kill this contest demon, it could get interesting. What if that post about not allowing rallies on r/undertale means something significant? I think that is unlikely since it was up and Undertale was still beasting on Melee. But hey, anything's possible. --- Moltar Status: hype Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
Maybe
the most significant scenario: what if the internet just rises up and
gives a collective middle finger to the hipster indie game that could? I
think this is the only realistic way for Zelda to win. We need about
250,000 votes and the craziest poll that we've ever seen. Will I bet on
it? Of course not. The Undertale hivemind will bomb this poll with all
the determination in the world. But it's possible - after what I saw
yesterday, literally anything is possible. The huge jump in vote totals
can do nothing but help Ocarina. That said, this isn't a case where
reddit was trolling the hell out of GameFAQs and GameFAQs finally
responded with its contest hero's life on the line. This is an innocent,
more L-Blocky kind of movement and I don't think GameFAQs has what it
needs to turn this result. It's going to need an effort far beyond what
was needed for Draven. Good luck, GameFAQs, and thanks for letting me share my contest thoughts with you this year. Even with the Undertale madness, I thought this was a great contest. transience's prediction: Undertale with 51.71% Leonhart’s Analysis You know, I didn’t used to get to the end of every contest and think, “This could be the last one,” but now I do. I feel better about the prospects of getting another contest after this one than I did after the Draven debacle, at least. There’s always a possibility that this could be the last contest for me, personally. Who knows where I’ll be whenever we eventually get another one? My life seems to be getting busier all the time as I get older. I might be too busy to be able to participate in stuff like the Crew anymore, even if I’m still around (especially if Allen wants to keep up this 4 matches a day thing, and he probably will). So if this is my last run with the Crew, I just want to publicly say thanks to Moltar for letting me participate as many times as he did. I’d also like to thank my Crewmates for taking it easy on me and finally letting me win! I guess if this is it, I get to go out on top like John Elway! Thanks to everyone who’s been reading our write-ups, whether you’ve been reading from the start or you just joined in this year. It’s (usually) a lot of fun doing these things, even if our predictions get made fun of more often than not! Don’t read this as me being bummed out or anything. This is just me waxing nostalgic. All things considered, this contest was fun and most of my time here has been fun. I’m not really in any hurry to have all this end or anything. Just wanted to get some words of appreciation out there in case this ends up being it. Oh, and Undertale wins. We already saw what happens when you threaten Undertale, even if you rally as much as you can. I don’t see Ocarina of Time fans trying to pull out all the stops the way Melee fans did, or rather, I’m not sure they’re as capable of it. We’ll see what happens when the king is threatened. If Ocarina of Time wins, the expected will have become the upset, so it’d be a weird twist that, while the journey zig-zagged all over the place, the final destination ultimately remained the same. It’s just a reminder that it’s the journey, not the destination! I haven’t voted for the winner in the final match of a contest since the Villains Contest in 2005. I could actually try to break that streak this year, or I could just use my bad luck to jinx Ocarina of Time. I might just do the latter so I can also go two straight contests without ever voting for the eventual contest champion. Yeah, that sounds good. Let’s do that. Leonhart’s Vote: Ocarina of Time Leonhart’s Prediction: Undertale with 50.96% (Mass Effect 3 for #2 in the X-Stats! Believe!) --- Moltar Status: hype Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
Kleenex’s Analysis This is the matchup we've all been waiting for! Will the plucky underdog be able to topple the big, bad contest boogeyman in the finals? Stay tuned to find out! I've already said my piece on the contest as a whole back during the Pokemon match, so I'm not going to rehash it here. It's unfortunate from my point of view, but there's not a whole lot that can be done. The Internet is a much different place in 2015 than it was in 2005. If these things are still happening 10 years from now, who knows how they'll look! I'll be glad to get some time off from contest season though, I think I've seen the word salt enough times for the next couple years. As for the match at hand, it's a nice thought to believe that Our Lord and Savior can win this, but it can't. Zelda can get some rallies, but it won't matter. When Undertale can turn on 600+ vote updates at the drop of a hat, there's nothing you can do. And it will do that again if it needs to. The best hope is for Zelda to pull out an early lead then have GameFAQs crash for 23 hours and 55 minutes. Needless to say, I'll be rooting for Zelda today. I did actually play through most of Undertale yesterday, just to finally see what all the fuss is about. I didn't much care for it, but I can sort of see why the segment of the gaming population has latched onto it has done so in the way they have. None of that resonates with me in any meaningful way though, so it mostly fell flat and I didn't have much fun with the gameplay either. Now, if you want to get Sans or Papyrus Anyway, Undertale is going to win but I'm going to predict Ocarina because I suspect the rest of the crew is picking Undertale and I want to try to gain a point on everyone in the last match. This has never backfired before. The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time with 50.01% --- Moltar Status: hype Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
Tsunami's Analysis Well, there's my contest in a nutshell. Ocarina is nearly doubling SMRPG at the moment (roughly 11 hours in) and has more or less been rising in percentage all match, so I've pretty much got the Accuracy point on lockdown, yet I still managed to make a bad prediction by saying the only way I'd get to do the guest analysis for the final would be if it were a free-for-all. Anyway, I somehow managed to fill three posts last time, so I'm going to try to keep this as short as possible (which still probably won't be that short because it's me.) I also made a bad prediction elsewhere. Right around the time that Melee was preparing to briefly retake the lead on Undertale, I said that even if Undertale won, Melee had exposed it as having a ceiling and that Ocarina had this locked up. I cited the fact that it took that weird near-outage for Draven to get past Link, and that was in a 3way where 50% of the vote wasn't actually needed. Even with the site almost going down for over an hour, you only need to give Link a 53-47 split of Commander Shepard's votes and he wins in a 1v1. I know that "games =/= characters" but I see no reason not to equate Ocarina's strength to Link's, so unless Undertale is considerably stronger than Draven was, it should lose. Except...after the way the match finally ended, I'm not so certain. For starters, Undertale probably does have more natural strength than Draven. I know LoL's playerbase is huge and Undertale is an indie game that just came out this year, but games =/= characters. There are so many champions in LoL that I'd assume none of them would have the natural strength that the game itself would if it was here. Undertale, meanwhile, has gotten a load of grassroots support. I know that the "bandwagon" effect shouldn't really be a thing because everyone has picked up the same number of wins so far in the tournament at any given round, but I suspect a lot of people who had never even heard of Undertale when this contest started have gained interest in it. I know I have. I also know that at least in the early rounds, there was a sentiment that the Undertale fans were a lot more tolerable than the Draven fans were. That seems to have disappeared as time went on, but honestly, I blame Board 8 for that. The saltier we get, the less sympathetic we become, and the rest of the Internet bands together to stick it to us. I really think the only way we're going to get through an entire contest without this happening is if we have a "classic" game/character contest where anything that's too new gets banned. Maybe "Game of the 20th Century"? Prediction: Undertale with 50.24% of the vote Crew Consensus: Undertale wins, no Crew Curse --- Moltar Status: hype Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
DpOblivion's Unofficial Dejected Analysis: No more being blinded by desperate hope. Melee couldn't do it. I could still end up with the first runner-up or even grand prize if Ocarina of Time does manage to win, but I know I can't get my hopes up. Undertale is going to win, and that's pretty much all there is to it. The Crew is awesome. Thanks, guys. Dp's bracket says: Ocarina of Time Dp's prediction is: Undertale wins with 52% --- NEW YORK METS - 2015 National League Champions 2015 Best. Game. Ever. Guru Champion |
I mean, undertale always manages to win its matches moderately unimpressively This is the first time it had ever broken 55% --- http://i.imgur.com/RHvCiY3.png |
I guess I should've gone high just for the fun of it since I've got everything locked up, but oh well. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif What DpOblivion did to me in the Guru Contest, in GIF form |
The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time 67.38% 60157 Super Mario RPG: Legend of the Seven Stars 32.62% 29129 TOTAL VOTES 89286 Crew Predictions: 115/126 What Happened: OoT doubles up Mario RPG. Nothing too surprising here. What Will Happen: LOL Crew Prediction Challenge: Points for everyone! Leonhart: 116 Moltar: 115 Guest: 111 Kleenex: 109 transience: 107 Crew Accuracy Challenge: Guest gets the point. Leonhart: 28 Moltar: 25 transience: 24.5 Kleenex: 23.5 Guest: 19 --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif What DpOblivion did to me in the Guru Contest, in GIF form |
Actually, if we get any bonus matches, are we doing writeups for those? I'm guessing not since they'd be post-contest this year. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif What DpOblivion did to me in the Guru Contest, in GIF form |
The
only game in the bracket I would've voted over Undertale is ff7 so this
result feels so good. I wanna see ff7 so this to oot but I'll take what
I can get --- http://myanimelist.net/profile/angryaria <Die the death>! <Sentence to death>! <Great equalizer is the death>!! |
Well,
we know we're getting bonus matches tomorrow, but Allen is being mum on
what they are, so I guess we couldn't predict them anyway. Still: Leonhart's Prediction: Big Rigs over Cory in the House with 75.75% --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif What DpOblivion did to me in the Guru Contest, in GIF form |
oh yeah thanks for Crewing again this year folks! --- http://myanimelist.net/profile/angryaria <Die the death>! <Sentence to death>! <Great equalizer is the death>!! |
yo this is the best day of the contest some of these matches --- http://myanimelist.net/profile/angryaria <Die the death>! <Sentence to death>! <Great equalizer is the death>!! |
Undertale 57.82% 90545 The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time 42.18% 66059 TOTAL VOTES 156604 Crew Predictions: 116/127 What Happened: Undertale lays down an Ulti-style destruction on OoT as Ocarina of Time manages one 1 vote cut the entire match. What Will Happen: Grudge matches! Crew Prediction Challenge: Kleenex continues his tradition of throwing the last match. Leonhart: 117 Moltar: 116 Guest: 112 Kleenex: 109 transience: 108 Crew Accuracy Challenge: transience gets the last point of the contest to finish second. Leonhart: 28 transience: 25.5 Moltar: 25 Kleenex: 23.5 Guest: 19 --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif What DpOblivion did to me in the Guru Contest, in GIF form |
I
also want to say for a final time thanks for all your hard work people!
I know this is the most tiring contest since there were so many matches
per day but you did it! I hope next time you all are back! And maybe
add some new blood too! --- Why do we exist?What happens when we stop existing? 124 Gurus were better than me in BGE 2015 contest! But the best of all was DpObliVion! Congrats! |
I think we would likely have added some new people if we weren't doing 4 writeups a day. --- http://i.imgur.com/RHvCiY3.png |
Thanks for this year crew Hopefully Allen keeps up with some future contest --- "I do because I can." http://card.psnprofiles.com/1/Micer101.png |
transcience posted... I somehow ended up 1 point behind Leon in oracle despite him crushing me here Just goes to show that the Oracle is an entirely different ballgame! My bad picks outweigh my good picks when it comes to the Oracle because when I miss, I usually miss big! (Plus, your Oracle picks and your Crew picks weren't always the same!) --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif What DpOblivion did to me in the Guru Contest, in GIF form |
And
yet I at one point had my Oracle pick changed without my knowledge
because I had a different percentage here as a guest picker. It didn't make too much difference, I don't think--my pick here was lower than my original Oracle pick by roughly twice the amount that I initially went over by. --- FC 5026-4424-6331 Congratulations to BGE3 Guru Champion DpOblivion |
Alright, contest season officially over. Just want to thank everyone for another successful Crew topic. Thanks to tranny, leonhart, and kleenex for suffering with me and doing all those write-ups and helping keep score for the challenges. That helped manage the load big time. Also thanks to Allen for deciding to do contests again and giving us this one. But most importantly, thanks to all the Guest writers and readers (including all you lurkers) for helping out your continued support of the Crew! This wouldn't be fun to do if you all weren't out their following along with us. See everyone next Contest! --- Moltar Status: Property of DpOblivion Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
http://static.nfl.com/static/content/public/pg-photo/2013/06/28/0ap2000000215344/john-elway_pg_600.jpg --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif What DpOblivion did to me in the Guru Contest, in GIF form |
