LeonhartFour posted...
The fact that Undertale has been rallying from the beginning is actually what gives it more strength. It's going to gain more intrinsic strength from this site every round. Undertale almost had as much on Mario 64 at the freeze this round as it had against Mass Effect 3. Undertale gets stronger every round because more of this site sides with it every round.


I think there's a ceiling on how much Undertale's natural GameFAQs strength will grow to. Draven seemed to gain more natural strength during his run, but there seemed to be a limit on how much his base strength increased to. Back in 2013, Draven's natural strength looked like this:

Round 1 - Doubled by Jak
Round 2 - Doubled by Ryu
Round 3 - Tripled by Link
Round 4 - Tripled by Mewtwo
Round 5 - Tripled by Snake

Other than the first 2 rounds, all of the other rounds are only rough estimates. Draven appeared to be getting tripled by Link during the very brief period of time that his rally was taken off the LoL subreddit. Getting tripled by Link is still a big step above getting doubled by Jak. We never got to see base Draven vs. Snake, though he'd probably get tripled by Snake as well.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ!
12/12/2015 9:10:58 PM#352
Semifinals: Round 6 - Match 125 – (3) Super Smash Bros. Melee vs. (6) Undertale

Moltar’s Analysis

Super Smash Bros. Melee
Round 1 - 67.71% vs Portal
Round 2 - 60.03% vs Pokemon Gold/Silver/Crystal Version
Round 3 - 55.30% vs Kingdom Hearts II
Round 4 - 50.76% vs Chrono Trigger
Round 5 - 56.28% vs Final Fantasy VII

Undertale
Round 1 - 50.95% vs Mass Effect 3
Round 2 - 55.74% vs Fallout 3
Round 3 - 54.84% vs Super Mario World
Round 4 - 51.52% vs Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow/Green Version
Round 5 - 51.33% vs Super Mario 64

Melee has its rally, but Undertale has the rally.

That rally has gotten it to the semifinals and past opponents of all strengths. That's combined with Undertale naturally getting stronger since more people are getting behind it (you know, that whole bandwagon concept).

Can't see Melee bringing in the ridiculous number of votes needed in order to top Undetale's rally.

Moltar’s Bracket: Pokemon

Moltar’s Prediction: Undertale - 51%



Transience’s Analysis

Hey, a single match. And it's the match with our two biggest rally sources this contest.

Melee is probably the biggest challenge to Undertale that we have. Regular People will favour Melee as much as Mario 64, Pokemon, Ocarina, etc. The only variable here is that Melee can bring in votes from offsite better than the others. (except maybe Pokemon - who knows).

It ultimately doesn't matter because you're looking at a weekend vote with our rally king, and unless Melee can do something on a similar scale, it's going down. Most likely though, Undertale keeps it close enough during the early vote and then beasts all over it during the day. Normally I'd say "hopefully Melee fights back", but after what it did to Chrono Trigger, I hope it gets absolutely embarrassed.

transience's prediction: Undertale with 53.78%



Leonhart’s Analysis

It’s time for the so-called “rally war” people have been anticipating ever since Melee’s big victory over Chrono Trigger. The question is whether it will be an actual war or another Undertale curbstomp. I’m defaulting to Undertale until proven otherwise. Melee pulled out all the stops and barely beat Chrono Trigger. I’m sure some people will point to the Mario 64 match as a reason why Melee can win, and while I agree it shows it has at least a chance of winning, that match was different from Undertale’s usual matches. Undertale took the lead early and was content just to coast to a comfortable win. If you look at the vote totals, for the first half of the match, we were way ahead of Undertale/Pokemon. By the end, the match had finished well below Undertale/Pokemon because Undertale took its foot off of the gas. The Undertale we saw against Mario 64 isn’t the one Melee is going to get, and it still finished well ahead of FFVII/Melee in total votes. Not to mention, Undertale is going to get stronger every round because more of the site is siding with it every round because GameFAQs is a sucker for an underdog/Cinderella story. Plus, SSBM has turned every JRPG fan against it in the last two rounds, so, as they say, “Welcome to the League of Anti-Votes!”

Again, I’m not going to completely discount Melee’s chances. I’m sure their fans will pull out all the stops, but Undertale will, too. I’m dubious about its ability to out-rally Pokemon, but if I’m wrong, I won’t complain too much. If Melee wins, it’ll at least be entertaining to see them try to justify its chances against Ocarina of Time in the finals, if nothing else!

Leonhart’s Vote: Mass Effect 3 for #2 in the X-Stats

Leonhart’s Prediction: Undertale with 51.50%
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Moltar Status: hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
12/12/2015 9:11:02 PM#353
Kleenex’s Analysis

The only reason I'm somewhat hesitant about calling this one as another easy Undertale win is because Undertale didn't really show up yesterday. It won without too much effort, but those 350-400 vote updates we had seen for 4 rounds never happened. Melee has shown it has some sort of rallying prowess, though not to the extent that Undertale does. I think at the end of the day, if Undertale is threatened the cavalry will show up and do what needs to be done. Unlike the past four rounds however, I'm not calling this one a stone cold lock. More like a 95% chance.

Undertale with 51%



Guest’s Analysis - Scarlettail

If there's one word that could best describe this contest, it's rallies. Now, the two biggest ralliers in the contest face off. Stats and number crunching don't mean much here. This match will come down to who rallies the most votes.

Melee has done its damage this contest to the dismay of many. Its close win over Chrono Trigger is still fresh in our minds. It destroyed FFVII last round, but it's difficult to say what caused this. Was this a lot of Melee rallying? Was it spillover from Undertale? There's no way to know for sure.

Last round, Undertale did not have its usual outburst against Mario 64. Instead, it kept a gradual pace throughout the match. Likely, this was because Mario 64 was not a threat, and UT did not have to overcome a big deficit. No doubt, it received rallies, but its votes were spread out more than usual. It still managed 57k total votes, and if the Pokemon match is any indication it could still produce at least 5k more.

This is almost a coin flip, but I'll go with the game that has proven itself time and time again this contest. Although Melee has been impressive, it has not shown the same insane potential Undertale has. I feel this match will be similar to the Pokemon one. UT might go down early, but it will comeback. The more Melee fights, the more Undertale fights back. Can Melee win? Sure, anything can happen in this contest, but I say Undertale makes it out for a big final against OoT. No way it makes it this far and loses. The climax is yet to come.

Scarlettail's Prediction: Undertale with 50.74%



Crew Consensus: Melee gets a taste of its own medicine
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Moltar Status: hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
Bold prediction Melee's resistance causes Undertale to rally way harder and embarrass Melee, Undertale wins 55-45
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I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword
That would be fine with me!
---
http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif
DpOblivion's Unofficial Contest-Winning Analysis?

Undertale caused some confusion last round by not blowing Super Mario 64 away in the second half of the day. Of course, it didn't need to, as it pulled out to an early lead. Suddenly the cute underdog is the powerful favorite, and Undertail's best strength is as the underdog.

Meanwhile, Melee just put a beat-down on Final Fantasy VII, traditionally the second most popular game here, after defeating Chrono Trigger, which might have been the best naturally performing game of the contest. We might not have seen the full rallying force that Undertale can bring, but we haven't seen the full rallying force that Melee can bring. Tomorrow, we will see that force from Melee. They're gonna pull out all the stops. If there's any complacency on Undertale's end, we could be in for the "upset."

....Okay, so there's a bit more at stake for me here than just a prediction. I could be in line to win the entire contest if Melee can win this match and then fall to OoT in the finals. So admittedly, I'm charging through here with my eyes closed, my fingers in my eyes, yelling BLAH-BLAH-BLAH-BLAH-BLAH-BLAH I CAN'T HEAR YOU, and searching for any confirmation bias that I can find. But damn it, I've gotten this far. I believe. I have to believe.

DpOblivion's bracket says: Super Smash Bros. Melee

DpOblivion's prediction is: Super Smash Bros. Melee WINS THE DAMN THING then loses to Ocarina of Time
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NEW YORK METS - 2015 National League Champions
Realistically, Undertale doesn't compare to Pokemon and SM64. Not saying it's a bad game, just that it's not as good as those mentioned.
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http://31.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_m2ynrjY46X1qlx45xo1_400.gif
**--Falcon Pawnch!!!!--**
Are people really that bitter over Melee > CT?
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Cranky's Advice - "git gud"
Oh yea, I guess raytan won.
whatisurnameplz posted...
Are people really that bitter over Melee > CT?


yes
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sig
pssssssssssst - http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/568795-soccer-challenge
It was a betrayal.

It's like when Stone Cold turned heel against The Rock at Wrestlemania, complete with Board 8 yelling NO NOT LIKE THIS NOT LIKE THIS
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http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif
I'm not. Melee is pretty damn awesome and finally gets the glory moment it was denied in GotD...

Oh, right, I can't hide behind that because I voted for Brawl in that match. Um, revenge for FFX? ...Nope, that's even less credible because everyone knows full well that if it hasn't been released on a Nintendo system and came out some time after the mid-90s, I probably haven't played it.

Yeah okay I'm going to stop pretending to sugarcoat it and just come out and say it: Melee > CT was the best result of the contest, and the only way this contest could be any better would be if Undertale had only barely squeaked in instead of being "powerful" enough to get a 6-seed and was in line to get "fed" to Chrono Trigger in Round 1. I'm not one of those trolls who feeds on the salt created by these rally-fueled runs generally speaking but I would've loved the salt that an Undertale > CT result in the opening match would've created. Hell, I'd settle for it landing in the 8-9 range and taking it down in Round 2. (Well, the best result since the start of the contest--as far as "nearly universally-beloved UTTER PIECES OF S***" go, Mega Man 2 being completely absent from the bracket is the best result of this contest. But Chrono Trigger losing to a game from this century has got to be right up there.)

Next time you feel like playing Chrono Trigger? Go out and get yourself a katana like the one Crono wields, and use it to slice up the cartridge.
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FC 5026-4424-6331 -- Native Vivillon type: Polar
Still need Marine, Sun, Icy Snow, Monsoon, River, and Jungle
(edited 12/12/2015 10:55:31 PM)reportquote
Jeeze what did Chrono Trigger do to you
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I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword
Melee you piece of garbage this could have been Chrono Trigger
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xyzzy
transience posted...
Melee you piece of garbage this could have been Chrono Trigger


Could have been CT getting it's organs ripped out and shoved up it's ass?
---
Knowledge is power. Power corrupts. Study hard and become evil.
941 vote update for Undertale

make your time, Link
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http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif
The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time 59.9% 36737
The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past 40.1% 24598
TOTAL VOTES 61335

Super Mario RPG: Legend of the Seven Stars 52.32% 31847
Metal Gear Solid 3: Snake Eater 47.68% 29028
TOTAL VOTES 60875

Crew Predictions: 113/124

What Happened: OoT 60/40s LTTP, but no one's sure if that's a good performance or not. MGS3 puts up a good fight against Mario RPG but still was never really in contention to win.

What Will Happen: OoT gets one last warm-up before facing the Undertale machine.

Crew Prediction Challenge: Points for everyone!

Leonhart: 114
Moltar: 113
Guest: 109
Kleenex: 107
transience: 105

Crew Accuracy Challenge: transience sweeps

Leonhart: 28
Moltar: 24.5
transience: 24.5
Kleenex: 23
Guest: 18
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http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif
whatisurnameplz posted...
Are people really that bitter over Melee > CT?


I'm fuckin furious about this result tbh
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Communists
I don't care.
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"Nothing I could do!"
-Darksydephil
maybe it's just residual CT bitterness but I really hope undertale comes backs and knocks melee out of here
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http://i.imgur.com/RHvCiY3.png
Root for your bracket!
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NEW YORK METS - 2015 National League Champions
I might have overestimated my chances even if Melee wins here, there's still like 300-325 people ahead of me.

We'll see. This also assumes OoT wins as well.
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http://i.imgur.com/RHvCiY3.png
The Mana Sword posted...
maybe it's just residual CT bitterness but I really hope undertale comes backs and knocks melee out of here


I understand this

I would rather both lose!
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satoru iwata
Also I don't think I could feel less excitement for this match. People are going nuts, but what a bunch of losers these two are! Mario and Crono they are not!
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satoru iwata
also I'm kinda starting to agree with lopen's analysis of the 'rallies' tbqh
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http://i.imgur.com/RHvCiY3.png
If nothing else I'm glad this match is so blatant that people will actually realize I was right the whole time.
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
Lopen posted...
If nothing else I'm glad this match is so blatant that people will actually realize I was right the whole time.


Do you expect anything will be done about it ?
Because I think there is nothing suspicious to be seen there.
Melee is getting what it deserves so I can't complain too much
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http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif
Lopen posted...
If nothing else I'm glad this match is so blatant that people will actually realize I was right the whole time.


Are you kidding me

The arguments will be THE WHOLE INTERNET CAME OUT FOR THIS MATCH

You know it will be!
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satoru iwata
12/13/2015 7:43:29 PM#382
Semifinals: Round 6 - Match 126 – (1) The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time vs. (9) Super Mario RPG: Legend of the Seven Stars

Moltar’s Analysis

The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time
Round 1 - 91.03% vs Hearthstone: Heroes of Warcraft
Round 2 - 76.89% vs Suikoden II
Round 3 - 64.96% vs Final Fantasy IX
Round 4 - 68.18% vs Castlevania: Symphony of the Night
Round 5 - 59.90% vs The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past

Super Mario RPG: Legend of the Seven Stars
Round 1 - 54.43% vs The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion
Round 2 - 57.20% vs Grand Theft Auto V
Round 3 - 60.74% vs Chrono Cross
Round 4 - 55.53% vs Resident Evil 4
Round 5 - 52.32% vs Metal Gear Solid 3: Snake Eater

CT is out, FF7 is out, SM64 is out, Pokemon RBY is out, SMRPG is still in. Is this real life?

We've known the RE4/MGS3/Oblivion trio were all pretty close in strength as upper-midcard games, but none of them are on that top tier level. Zelda OoT not only is on that level, but at the very top of the top tier.

Now there have already been a lot of weird end-contest shenanigans, but it would top them all for SMRPG to find a way to beat OoT here. It might overperform, but this should not be close at all since these games are on completely different levels.

Plus, if we get massive spillover from today's match, that probably swings towards OoT.

Moltar’s Bracket: Ocarina of Time

Moltar’s Prediction: Ocarina of Time - 62%



Transience’s Analysis

We've had 125 matches so far and still not a single SFF result. Super Metroid/Majora and Galaxy, Majora/LTTP. LTTP/OOT, MGS1/MGS3, FF9/KH, FF6/FF7, Mario 64/Twilight Princess -- not a single result was really out of whack with natural strength. Considering past contests, that's pretty damn wild.

If there's one match that you might expect that to change, it's this one. I'm writing this early in the morning, but we're looking at a match that is currently on pace to be the most voted in poll in the site's 16 year history. There has to be some serious spill-over here and you have to expect it to favor Ocarina. Mario RPG is the definition of a GameFAQs game, a Square/Nintendo/nostalgia hybrid that hits our audience's sweet spot but probably isn't as widely beloved on the general internet which this contest is now playing to.

But is that really true? There's a huge sentiment going on that Undertale is the underdog and that Ocarina is the big man on campus. It's been seemingly antivoted all contest. What happens if the site puts two and two together and comes together to vote against Ocarina? It won't lose to Mario RPG, a game that's had a great cinderella run but let's face it, it doesn't belong in our top four games. It got here because of advantageous bracket placement. But Ocarina could look bad in victory, much like it has in every match outside of round 1.

Mario RPG has an outside shot at being top 10 strength-wise on the site, probably about equal or maybe slightly ahead of Super Metroid. Super Metroid probably projects to get about 37-38% on Ocarina. I'll take Mario RPG in that range -- I think this match has a lot of factors that could cause it to go sideways but I'm going with simple projections and assuming that no weirdness will happen because it's really hard to tell which way it might trend.

transience's prediction: Ocarina of Time with 61.99%
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Moltar Status: hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
12/13/2015 7:43:56 PM#383
Leonhart’s Analysis

Super Mario RPG has had a great run through the contest, but this is the end of the line. It’s got no chance to beat Ocarina of Time, we all know that. Will OoT be able to lay down some SFF here? It didn’t seem to do that much against Link to the Past, an SNES game from its own series. I’m kind of hoping Super Mario RPG has gained a bit of a bandwagon at this point and that will let it overperform here, especially since no one thinks it can actually beat OoT. Only 3% of the site predicted it to get to the semifinal match. It beat two casual friendly games in Oblivion and GTAV, and then it beat two franchise darlings in RE4 and MGS3. That has the makings of an underdog story, and GameFAQs eats those up, especially if it makes a deep contest run (look no further than today’s match). My dream scenario is that Mario RPG overperforms and outdoes Link to the Past, giving me at least one final bright spot for this contest to cap off its run. It’s unlikely, but there’s no harm in predicting it to do well, so whatever!

Leonhart’s Vote: Super Mario RPG

Leonhart’s Prediction: Ocarina of Time with 59.10%



Kleenex’s Analysis

After...whatever you want to call yesterday, today should be a fairly tame match. SMRPG has done really well for itself making the semifinals without any kind of nonsense. The bottom two divisions were fairly weak, but still. It had the strength to take advantage of that and rode the SNES BOOST to victory. Today, it runs into Ocarina, though, and that's not gonna be pretty. Ocarina is already probably getting spillover from yesterday, it's inherently much stronger than SMRPG and I think Ocarina gets another boost from people still desperate to stop the Undertale menace. It's going to make divisions 7 & 8 look like total garbage in the (lol) x-stats, but it's not like those are going to be worth anything anyway, so no harm done.

Zelda: Ocarina of Time with 64%
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Moltar Status: hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
12/13/2015 7:44:51 PM#384
Guest’s Analysis - Tsunami

Well, here we are. Unless the finals becomes a Guest free-for-all, this'll be my last analysis of the contest. And all in all...it was a pretty good one! Yeah, in the end my bracket didn't do so well, but I spent quite some time on the leaderboard and actually had sole possession of the Guru lead at one point due to my absolutely amazing prediction skills in Round 1 in general and Division 5 in particular. But otherwise it was pretty standard--occasionally look like a genius, or at least less like an idiot than everyone else (you know, miss an Oracle prediction by over 5% and still get second place because we all screwed up royally, or end up in the middle of the pack despite being the only one to fail to pick the correct winner because so many people predicted a blowout that didn't happen--that sort of thing), but mostly look like an idiot. On the topic of Gurus, congratulations to former Crew member DpOblivion, who should currently be in the process of officially wrapping up the Guru championship with an Undertale victory over Melee (I'm going to be busy for most of Sunday so I'm writing this up on Saturday, during SMRPG-MGS3), though unofficially he had it wrapped up as soon as Melee beat FFVII since that was the last point at which anyone else with Ocarina in their bracket could catch him. Congratulations also to Kenri, for being the only Guru to correctly predict that Ocarina's semifinal opponent would be Super Mario RPG! We often talk about tough first-round matches being "3-point" matches because the winner is all but guaranteed to go to Round 3, or even "7-point" matches on rare occasions, including this one. Except according to the X-Stats, which unlike in Division 3 have no discernible reason to be inaccurate, SMRPG-Oblivion was a 15-point match, and SMRPG itself had a total of 31 points to give. Kenri, even if it wasn't enough to get you the win, congratulations on being able to claim all 31 of them. (Speaking, once again, as one of only two Gurus to claim all 32 points from Division 5. How did I manage to have such a shitty bracket overall when I navigated such a gauntlet? Oh, right, that's Ocarina's division so I couldn't sabotage myself with unreasonable late-round upsets like FFVI > FFVII and FFX > CT and Melee. If I'd just done the sensible thing and picked Melee > FFX, FFVII > FFVI, and RBY > SMB3, I'd be...still screwed because I wouldn't have picked Melee > FFVII.)
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Moltar Status: hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
12/13/2015 7:45:09 PM#385
Oh yeah I guess I should really be talking about this match instead of the contest as a whole. But really, what is there to say? This is pretty much standard operating procedure for Bacon at this point--group everything that stands a legitimate chance of taking out Link/Ocarina of Time on the opposite side of the bracket while filling Link's side with a combination of weak divisions and things that will get SFFstomped. Look at CBVIII: Link's QF and SF opponents were Sonic and Mario, and Mario didn't even have to face a Noble Niner in the QFs. Division 7 was the weakest division in the bracket and Division 8 wasn't much better--MGS games aren't weak, but games =/= characters and it's pretty clear that Snake is stronger than his games. When the bracket was released, I complained that while RE4 was certainly critically acclaimed and considered a great game, it was comical how it was being given a free pass all the way to the Elite Eight, and also how unfair it was that two of the five strongest games in that division would be gone in Round 1--Oblivion and Paper Mario. And then it turned out that RE4's "free pass" wasn't even good enough! Though Division 5 itself was pretty weak (seriously, I think this bracket was set up to hide any weakness that games that "should" be elite might be showing; SotN got an awfully soft path to the Sweet 16) and Division 6 was set up to pit the #2 and #3 Zelda games against each other, then once it was decided which was which, feed it to OoT. Maybe subconsciously that's what drove that awful Shovel Knight to Round 3 pick. One, I needed some sort of drama in that drudgery, and two, Allen wouldn't really ruin the matches we wanted to see by putting this contest's Draven in the middle of the strongest divisions, right? No, it would make much more sense to put it in a division where it could build momentum against mediocre foes and then start beating heads in late in the game. So you can see why I'd see an indie game that I knew had received a decent amount of buzz in a position where it wouldn't face a truly strong opponent until at least Round 3 (and even then, neither SMRPG nor Oblivion had ever looked elite, merely good) and figure that it had a chance of wrecking some brackets. Okay, okay, Undertale was actually a 6-seed...I keep wanting to think it was seeded lower. The idea that it was the higher seed in Round 1 seems strange to me. So I guess the "switch Undertale and Shovel Knight and this contest becomes so much better" doesn't work because Undertale wasn't an 11 to SK's 12. I still think this contest would've been much better off if Undertale had been in the bottom half of the bracket. We looked at that bracket and we were so excited for all the questions that would be answered. We endlessly debated RBYG-SMB3 with the idea that despite being only a Round 2 match, it would make or break your bracket because RBYG could easily go all the way to the finals. When push comes to shove, that's what really ruined my bracket--I didn't want to see RBYG go that far into the contest but couldn't justify having it beat SMB3 only to lose to SMW or SM64--especially not SM64 since those two are from roughly the same era. So I picked SMB3 and prayed. Thanks to Undertale, though, it was more or less a moot point. Yes, RBY won, but the people who got the most benefit out of it were probably those who picked it to lose to SMW...no, wait, actually anyone who picked it to get past SMB3 got the exact same benefit out of it regardless of whether they had it losing to SMW or going all the way to OoT, because Undertale takes all those points away.
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Moltar Status: hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
12/13/2015 7:46:11 PM#386
Er, wait, I think I'm getting off topic again. I started the previous paragraph with "what is there to say", implying that all that self-reflection and congratulations was just a way to avoid having a two-sentence analysis, and then I ended up writing plenty anyway. Bottom line is, this bracket was crafted to avoid giving OoT any real challenge until the finals, unless you actually thought that it would lose to another Zelda game or you're so ignorant and believe that "Final Fantasy always wins" to such a degree that even Final Fantasy IX could take out Ocarina, and it's done a great job of that, serving up a platter of "please SFF me into the ground" for the semifinals. (Sidebar: While it was still the Guru favorite, FFIX-KH was one of the more baffling "stumbling blocks" of Division 5's "gauntlet". Seriously? Kingdom Hearts against a mainstream Final Fantasy? I know 9 doesn't have the same cache as 7 or 10 or 6, but I'm really surprised that only 57.36% of Gurus got this one right and only mildly less surprised that this still beat the casuals by over 18%.) Will it be the biggest beatdown we've ever seen this late in a contest? Er, well, yes, it will be the biggest semifinal blowout ever, but in regards to "this late" meaning "after division winners have already been crowned", I have to say no. I'm pretty sure that SMRPG will at least manage to break 30% here, which is something that Sonic failed to do against Link in CBVIII. But it's definitely going to be far more lopsided than we should be having this late in the contest, and I really think that it should've been Undertale here instead of waiting in the wings for next round.

Ocarina of Time with 64.5% of the vote



Crew Consensus: OoT moves on to the final boss
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Moltar Status: hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
Whoo, thanks, Tsunami. Too bad I couldn't bring home the whole thing for the glory of the Crew.
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NEW YORK METS - 2015 National League Champions
2015 Best. Game. Ever. Guru Champion
A passing thought, what if all the Undertale voters troll in this round to beat Ocarina here and get an easy finals?
I like how Moltar thinks the Undertale vote favors OoT and tran thinks it favors SMRPG

yet they're .01 apart
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thelefty for analysis crew 2008 imo -tranny
I have a third degree burn in flame-o-nomics -Sir Chris
Whoever has the low OoT pick has won three of the last four OoT points

Advantage: Me
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http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif
(edited 12/13/2015 8:25:56 PM)reportquote
jonnyfresh712 posted...
A passing thought, what if all the Undertale voters troll in this round to beat Ocarina here and get an easy finals?


Also someone please encourage them to do this

I tried to use this logic for why they should push FFVIII over Mario World but to no avail
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jonnyfresh712 posted...
A passing thought, what if all the Undertale voters troll in this round to beat Ocarina here and get an easy finals?


If they really wanted to troll, they'd support SMRPG both tomorrow and in the finals.
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
yes the greatest troll job of all would be to bury all these classic games and then fold like a house of cards to Mario RPG

they could get a lifetime's supply of salt from doing it
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http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif
SMRPG probably does get a bandwagon at the start of the match, but I think that will quickly fade away as we move out of the board vote. This match should also have the largest spillover we will ever see in this contest. We could very well break 2000 votes by the freeze. I have to think the spillover favors OoT, as these non-GameFAQs voters will be favoring OoT at a higher percentage than our normal GameFAQs voters.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ!
DpObliVion posted...
Whoo, thanks, Tsunami. Too bad I couldn't bring home the whole thing for the glory of the Crew.


Oh man I didn't realize just how long I'd been going on. I guess that's what I get for typing it up directly in the email since the formatting the last time I did it in Word made for a bunch of ugly code errors where my appstore and quotes should've been.
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FC 5026-4424-6331 -- Native Vivillon type: Polar
Still need Marine, Sun, Icy Snow, Monsoon, River, and Jungle
Super Smash Bros. Melee 48.8% 85973
Undertale 51.2% 90186
TOTAL VOTES 176159

Crew Predictions: 114/125

What Happened: The rally war generates insane vote totals, but Undertale comes out punching and takes the lead early. Melee makes a run at it and overtakes Undertale about halfway through the match, but then Undertale hit overdrive mode and put it out of reach.

What Will Happen: The rally vs. the LAW

Crew Prediction Challenge: Points for everyone!

Leonhart: 115
Moltar: 114
Guest: 110
Kleenex: 108
transience: 106

Crew Accuracy Challenge: Moltar and Kleenex split the point.

Leonhart: 28
Moltar: 25
transience: 24.5
Kleenex: 23.5
Guest: 18
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http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif
I dunno if OoT has geared itself up like Link did for Draven so I dunno if it can even put up a fight tomorrow tbh.
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"I do because I can."
http://card.psnprofiles.com/1/Micer101.png
goddamnit guest is going to steal my point

quick someone get a small Mario rpg rally going
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http://i.imgur.com/RHvCiY3.png
12/14/2015 7:04:25 AM#400
who wants to be guest for undertale/oot
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Moltar Status: hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

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