GameFAQs Contests
Best. Game. Ever. Contest Analysis Crew - Part 5
LeonhartFour posted... We did. Melee was getting crushed early and CT was coming back late. True, but maybe Smash is able to draw an even bigger strength against a stronger opponent. And I still think we are gonna see the ceiling of Undertale sooner or later, it doesn't have THAT many players. Well, I'm just speculating at this point. |
Undertale's
playrate doesn't matter. They're drawing in votes from people who are
voting just because someone they follow has asked them to. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
Maybe it's because I had bought completely into the CT hype, but this performance by Melee seems underwhelming to me. 60% on CT to 55% on FFVII? Not sure why that would get people to think we're going to have some epic showdown next round. Undertale is going to steamroll it. Maybe it puts up a better fight than SM64, but that isn't saying much. --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? |
Again, I don't think Melee has shown its full rallying power. I suspect Undertale hasn't either, though I'm not as close to its fandom. I do think Melee has more in the tank just because Undertale has been rallying from the beginning whereas Melee just started against CT and hasn't really been challenged much by FFVII this round. Rallies snowball. My gut tells me Melee will spurt to an early lead and then Undertale will have serious counterrallies. How close Undertale is to reaching their rallying ceiling will determine whether they'll win or not. --- I like this guy - Shiny Mewtwo |
The
fact that Undertale has been rallying from the beginning is actually
what gives it more strength. It's going to gain more intrinsic strength
from this site every round. Undertale almost had as much on Mario 64 at
the freeze this round as it had against Mass Effect 3. Undertale gets
stronger every round because more of this site sides with it every
round. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
I guess I'll update again! Super Mario RPG: Legend of the Seven Stars 55.53% 27502 Resident Evil 4 44.47% 22027 TOTAL VOTES 49529 Metal Gear Solid 48.14% 22365 Metal Gear Solid 3: Snake Eater 51.86% 24089 TOTAL VOTES 46454 Crew Predictions: 110/120 What Happened: SMRPG jumps out to a big lead on RE4 and never looks back. MGS3 flips the Metal Gear hierarchy on its head and claims the top spot in the series. What Will Happen: If MGS3 and RE4 are as close as they've always been, looks like Mario RPG should take it. Crew Prediction Challenge: Points for me! Leonhart: 111 Moltar: 109 Guest: 105 Kleenex: 104 transience: 102 Crew Accuracy Challenge: A Leonhart sweep! Leonhart: 28 Moltar: 23.5 Kleenex: 23 transience: 21.5 Guest: 18 --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
Quarterfinals: Round 5 - Match 123 – (1) The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time vs. (1) The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past Moltar’s Analysis The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time Round 1 - 91.03% vs Hearthstone: Heroes of Warcraft Round 2 - 76.89% vs Suikoden II Round 3 - 64.96% vs Final Fantasy IX Round 4 - 68.18% vs Castlevania: Symphony of the Night The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past Round 1 - 88.02% vs Cave Story Round 2 - 65.45% vs Final Fantasy IV Round 3 - 70.58% vs Dark Souls Round 4 - 52.39% vs The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask After watching LttP struggle with MM, I'm not sold on it challenging the godking OoT. This probably goes similar to FF6/FF7, with the historically stronger game winning without any problem. Rally spillover also favors OoT, with it being the newer of the two games (and also after seeing MM lead for a while against LttP due to the spillover in the previous round). Moltar’s Bracket: Ocarina of Time Moltar’s Prediction: Ocarina of Time – 62% Transience’s Analysis I think the big thing to note about this influx of new users is that they're not as 90s-skewed as we are. They're actually people born in the mid-90s! And some of them, the 2000s. Whoa. All of that is to say that LTTP gets buried here. During the last spill-over, Majora scared the hell out of all of us until GameFAQs got back in there and straightened things out. I'd like to think that LTTP can get to 40% here but it's hard to say. If LTTP can't legitimately break 55% on Majora, how is it going to hang with Ocarina? transience's prediction: Ocarina of Time with 60.60% Leonhart’s Analysis Ocarina of Time has looked average or worse for three straight rounds, but it might get a bit of a reprieve here. This match directly follows the Undertale match, and we saw what the spillover did to LTTP against Majora’s Mask. There’s no way Tumblr doesn’t side with Ocarina of Time against Link to the Past, too. I’m not sure to what extent that will be, but it should help. I’m not sure how much SFF OoT can lay down. I’ve always felt LTTP would resist it pretty well in a direct match, but who knows. The winner here is obvious, but the possible percentage is a pretty wide range. Leonhart’s Vote: Ocarina of Time Leonhart’s Prediction: Ocarina of Time with 60.75% --- no space all business |
Kleenex’s Analysis This could have been an interesting match with Ocarina looking somewhat weak and the SNES boost, but the fact that this follows an Undertale match means this should end up being business as usual. Tumblr is going to favor Ocarina disproportionately more than LttP, as evidenced by what happed vs. Majora a couple of days ago. Ocarina was already extremely likely to win this match, and now it’s just a formality. I wouldn’t be shocked to see this end up about where FF6/FF7 finished. Zelda: Ocarina of Time with 57% Guest’s Analysis - MechanicalWall I always found that Ocarina and LttP's relationship very neatly mirrors FFVI and FFVII's relationship. FFVII and Ocarina are the big 3D games that get all the love from the general public, while the series' hardcore fanbases claim that the 16-bit predecessors are way better. The thing about the second group is that in reality, they're just a very vocal minority. Given how loud they are, you might be tempted to assume that the 16-bit games have a chance at winning their matches. But as FFVI vs. FFVII showed us, that's not actually going to be the case. And between LttP's struggle with Majora's Mask, and Ocarina of Time finally pulling its head out of its ass and putting up the numbers it was expected to against Castlevania, there's no reason to assume that the SNES game is going to reach for the upset here. The interesting thing that should be noted here, though, is that it doesn't seem like we're seeing any large-scale SFF in these interseries matches. FFVI vs FFVII, MM vs. ALttP, and MGS1 vs MGS3 (and even KH 1 vs KH 2 in 2010) have proven that the stronger game in these matches isn't going to score some big SFF blowout the way we see with character matches. So there's no reason to expect that Ocarina is going to blow the doors off its older brother. As for why this is the case, I don't have a clue. I'll leave that for people more insightful than myself. Prediction: Ocarina of Time- 57% Crew Consensus: Zelda > Zelda --- no space all business |
Quarterfinals: Round 5 - Match 124 – (9) Super Mario RPG: Legend of the Seven Stars vs. (3) Metal Gear Solid 3: Snake Eater Moltar’s Analysis Super Mario RPG: Legend of the Seven Stars Round 1 - 54.43% vs The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion Round 2 - 57.20% vs Grand Theft Auto V Round 3 - 60.74% vs Chrono Cross Round 4 - 55.53% vs Resident Evil 4 Metal Gear Solid 3: Snake Eater Round 1 - 69.50% vs Mother 3 Round 2 - 52.03% vs BioShock Round 3 - 60.64% vs Mass Effect 2 Round 4 - 51.86% vs Metal Gear Solid geez smrpg, Oblivion > RE4 what So SMRPG is legit. I wasn't sold before but 55% on RE4 (even though it hasn't looked great) is way more that I would have expected even after seeing its run through the contest so far. MGS3 got by MGS in a close match, and it seems like the GameFAQs overall board preference of MGS3 won it the match, as the larger voting public seemed pretty split between the two games. MGS3 has been seen as the statistical equivalent to RE4, so if SMRPG can beat that, then it should beat MGS3 as well. I also believe rally spillover favors Mario yet again here so uh smrpg in the semis what Moltar’s Bracket: Metal Gear Solid Moltar’s Prediction: Super Mario RPG – 54% Transience’s Analysis Again, the spillover has to favour MGS3 here. SMRPG is such a weird 20-something GameFAQs only thing. Of all the results we've had, division 7 is by far the strangest. Chrono Cross beats GTA, Mario RPG beats RE4 and now might be one of the four greatest games of all time. What's up with that?! No offense to any Mario RPG fans but that game is not meant to be the greatest game of all time. It's just a cool nostalgia trip - Mario and Bowser, haikuing it up and beating up Axem Rangers. Charming and cool, but not exactly a transcendent experience. MGS3 and RE4 have been 50/50 before and Mario RPG just beat up RE4 pretty good. Mario RPG is the easy pick unless you think the influx of vote totals hurts it. It's been far enough away from Undertale that it hasn't mattered but that's no longer the case. The thing is.. I'm writing this at 1:30pm EST and this match already looks to be over. Melee's beating up FF7 and Undertale's already in the lead. If this does chill out, I think the vote totals will calm down enough for Mario RPG to still win comfortably. MGS3 won't be the same early vote pushover that its other opponents have been though.. that game is second only to Mario RPG and maybe Melee in beasting to a killer early vote. transience's prediction: Super Mario RPG with 53.33% Leonhart’s Analysis It was great to finally have a day when things went my way with Super Mario RPG and Metal Gear Solid 3 winning in pretty big upsets, especially pre-contest! This will be the last such match this contest where a game I really like will win, even if it’s not my preferred game of the two, so I guess I should enjoy it! Super Mario RPG put up its most impressive performance thus far, jumping out to an early lead right off the bat and never even giving Resident Evil 4 a chance of getting back into the match. MGS3 completely flipped the series hierarchy on its head by beating the original MGS1. I guess in exchange for getting MGS3 > MGS1, I had to concede FFIX > FFVIII, but at least I’ll always have poll results of MGS3 > MGS1 and FFVIII doubling FFIX, so I suppose I’ll live with it! --- no space all business |
Anyway,
I guess this is technically the last debatable match of the contest,
but I feel like Mario RPG has a clear edge here. Resident Evil 4 and
Metal Gear Solid 3 have always been very close in strength, so MGS3
basically has to hope that RE4 has dropped while the fact that it has
topped MGS1 now means it’s gotten a decent boost in strength. I don’t
know if I buy that though. Metal Gear Solid in general hasn’t looked
good enough this year to make me believe it’s gotten a strength boost. Plus, there’s another factor that I think is working against MGS3 here, and that’s the Tumblr spillover. We haven’t really seen Metal Gear have to deal with it so far, but I feel like Tumblr would default to “any Mario game” over Metal Gear. It doesn’t matter if MGS3 is the more recent game (it’s 11 years old now, so it’s not THAT recent). They jumped on Sonic 2 over Uncharted 2 and Mario World over Final Fantasy VIII. It doesn’t matter if Naked Snake is a handsome guy that might appeal to GirlFAQs. They didn’t side with Squall, Nathan Drake, or even James Bond. These people coming from Tumblr seem to love Nintendo every bit as much as we do, if not moreso, although their priorities might be a little different from ours (such as loving Animal Crossing a lot more than we do). Taking all those things into account, I really wouldn’t be surprised if Mario RPG did noticeably better here than it did against Resident Evil 4. I hope MGS3 holds up well though, and if Tumblr wants to prove me wrong, I wouldn’t complain too much! I thought about writing some silly fanfiction about Naked Snake asking Para-Medic how Mallow tastes for this writeup, but I’ve gone on long enough as is. If someone wants me to write it and then wants to post it to Tumblr because they think it might get Tumblr to vote for MGS3, I might do it anyway! Leonhart’s Vote: Metal Gear Solid 3 Leonhart’s Prediction: Super Mario RPG with 55.55% Kleenex’s Analysis There’s really no reason Mario RPG should lose this. Common knowledge has both RE4 and MGS3 relatively equal in strength, and SMRPG already dispatched RE4 without much trouble. Spillover will probably go to SMRPG too, making this even less debatable. Unless MGS3 somehow gets a rally of its own, we’re looking at Super Mario RPG in the semifinals. Let that sink in for a minute. These bottom two divisions were mostly clear of any kind of rallying or foul play. And Mario RPG is what made it out alive. Super Mario RPG with 54% --- no space all business |
Guest’s Analysis - Luster Soldier Super Mario RPG getting this far into the contest is one of the bright spots here. Granted, it had a very favorable bracket placement that allowed it to make a deep run, but getting to the semifinals was very unexpected. I didn't have the courage to take it beyond RE4 in my bracket, since I felt it didn't have the strength to get that far with the game losing to GoldenEye back in 2009, along with the game's weak Euro vote. After GoldenEye's performance against Skyrim, I would absolutely take SMRPG over GoldenEye in a re-match today. SMRPG put up a huge performance on RE4 when we were originally expecting it to be fairly close. Getting over 55% on RE4 should make SMRPG a pretty easy favorite over MGS3 even if you think MGS3 is a little bit stronger than RE4. There is also the Undertale rally spillover to be concerned about, though I'm not expecting Tumblr to favor MGS3 over SMRPG considering the games that Tumblr has supported in the other matches that are running at the same time as the Undertale matches. If you were concerned about rally spillover possibly hurting SMRPG, tomorrow's matches should have less rally spillover than usual if Undertale can lock up a win against Mario 64 much earlier in today's match compared to the other Undertale matches. Luster Soldier's Bracket: Metal Gear Solid Luster Soldier's Prediction: Super Mario RPG - 53.49% Crew Consensus: The last Mario standing marches on --- no space all business |
Finally down to one match a day right?.....or not! Should've refreshed before posting this --- "I do because I can." http://card.psnprofiles.com/1/Micer101.png |
The
Undertale rally started so much earlier this time, meaning the rally is
more spread out across the entire day. Possibly the Melee rally is
helping to keep Undertale in check somewhat. We know Undertale is
capable of going god mode at any time, but we haven't seen that so far. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ! |
Oh
wow great point Luster, I'd forgotten how Goldeneye is worth 57% on
Mario RPG, in 2009 and now and forevermore. So, in actual fact this was
an incredible season for GE and also, of course, Mass Effect 3. AWESOME. --- Have you listened to this week's episode of The Show yet, buddy? board8.wikia.com | thengamer.com/xstats |
So are we literally going to get a semifinalist
with its closest win being in Round 1? I feel like we are. It's
probably bandwagon, but I feel like SMRPG can beat the 54.43% it got on
Oblivion against MGS3 just like it did against RE4. Again, I feel like TES always gets underestimated in these things. Skyrim, at least, people had faith in, but you look at old results and Morrowind and Oblivion always have these godawful prediction percentages when they win. I mean, granted, the final X-Stats will be brutal to Divisions 7 and 8 because Undertale being rally -fueled means it never blows anything out while Ocarina will no doubt put a Nintendo SFF beatdown on SMRPG, but the idea of a game that lost in Round 1 having a higher value than the champion of the next division over is hilarious oh wait sorry SM64 that's not hilarious at all that's tragic. --- FC 5026-4424-6331 -- Native Vivillon type: Polar Still need Marine, Sun, Icy Snow, Monsoon, River, and Jungle |
transience posted... oh right, points. Leon can you pick that up for me? I've got family in town this weekend, a sick kid and a wedding to go to! Yeah, no problem. There's only 4 days left anyway. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
Oh hey, I have the highest SMRPG prediction. If the spillover actually favors it, that could work out for me! --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
Super Smash Bros. Melee 56.28% 59125 Final Fantasy VII 43.72% 45927 TOTAL VOTES 105052 Undertale 51.33% 57010 Super Mario 64 48.67% 54046 TOTAL VOTES 111056 Crew Predictions: 111/122 What Happened: Melee rally leads to an easy win over FFVII. Undertale takes a different approach this time, taking the lead early against Mario 64 and coasting the rest of the day. What Will Happen: Time for a rally war. Crew Prediction Challenge: Leonhart, transience, and Kleenex miss FFVII. Everyone gets Undertale. Leonhart: 112 Moltar: 111 Guest: 107 Kleenex: 105 transience: 103 Crew Accuracy Challenge: Moltar gets Melee, transience gets Undertale. Leonhart: 28 Moltar: 24.5 Kleenex: 23 transience: 22.5 Guest: 18 --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
MGS3 has to have the most aberrant results of any game this contest --- http://i.imgur.com/RHvCiY3.png |
also looking at the leaderboard and prediction percentages, if melee beats undertale I might not be totally dead for prizes --- http://i.imgur.com/RHvCiY3.png |
SMRPG's
cinderella run is gonna get overshadowed in the history books by
undertale (and melee, I guess) but I'm damn impressed by it --- http://myanimelist.net/profile/angryaria <Die the death>! <Sentence to death>! <Great equalizer is the death>!! |
who wants to be the guest for melee/undertale and oot/smrpg --- Moltar Status: hype Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
transcience posted... random question: has there been a single SFF result this contest? I'd wager FFVII overperformed on FFVI a bit, but I dunno if it was SFF or rally spillover. Who knows. OoT might be putting up some minor SFF today, too. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
Well,
I only say it was likely to be an overperformance because it brings
Wind Waker way too close to Smash 4 if 60/40 was legit. That suggests it
would only get 57% on Mass Effect 1, and I don't really believe that! Who knows, maybe ME1 really is the strongest game in the series (other than ME3, of course) or maybe MGS3 would beat Wind Waker! --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
I might be a little late on an analysis today. If you want to post without me that's fine - spoilers I'm picking undertale --- http://i.imgur.com/RHvCiY3.png |
