the temptation to fanboy pick Zelda is very strong
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http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif
transcience posted...
but ocarina of time!!!


You will see
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satoru iwata
I guess I'll go ahead and update the leaderboard for today.

The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time 68.18% 42896
Castlevania: Symphony of the Night 31.82% 20023
TOTAL VOTES 62919

The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past 52.39% 32595
The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask 47.61% 29623
TOTAL VOTES 62218

Crew Predictions: 110/118

What Happened: OoT does okay on SOTN. Majora puts an early scare into LTTP before the day vote flips the result back to what we expected.

What Will Happen: Will OoT continue to look bad or will it be able to lay down some SFF on LTTP? Who knows!

Crew Prediction Challenge: Points for everyone!

Leonhart: 109
Moltar: 109
Guest: 105
Kleenex: 104
transience: 102

Crew Accuracy Challenge: Kleenex gets OoT, Leonhart gets LTTP.

Leonhart: 26
Moltar: 23.5
Kleenex: 23
transience: 21.5
Guest: 18
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http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif
12/10/2015 7:54:46 PM#254
Quarterfinals: Round 5 - Match 121 Ė (3) Super Smash Bros. Melee vs. (2) Final Fantasy VII

Moltarís Analysis

Super Smash Bros. Melee
Round 1 - 67.71% vs Portal
Round 2 - 60.03% vs Pokemon Gold/Silver/Crystal Version
Round 3 - 55.30% vs Kingdom Hearts II
Round 4 - 50.76% vs Chrono Trigger

Final Fantasy VII
Round 1 - 84.07% vs Journey
Round 2 - 78.21% vs Halo
Round 3 - 65.29% vs Super Smash Bros. for Wii U
Round 4 - 60.05% vs Final Fantasy VI

rallyfaqs has returned no point in trying to analyze stuff anymore mirite

But yeah, CT/FF7 would have been a great match, and with it putting up 60%+ on Melee, Iíd take it here over FF7. The good news is that I can still write about FF7 losing!

If Melee could rally itself over a game as beastly looking as CT, then it can rally itself over one of the most anti-voted and complained about for "always winning" games in the contest, FF7, remake hype and cloud in smash hype or not.

Oh and it will also have to deal with rallying from the other match going on today. It could lean FF7, but if it's not by a wide enough margin, Melee can erase that with rallies of its own (and I don't think Undertale will need to rally as hard as it had to against Pokemon).

If it naturally favors Melee then FF7 is doubly screwed woo mid-contest format changes.

Moltarís Bracket: Final Fantasy VII

Moltarís Prediction: Super Smash Bros. Melee Ė 53%



Transienceís Analysis

Okay, so, this could be the craziest match in contest history. We're looking at our two biggest proven sources of rallying, Melee and Undertale, in the same poll. Anything could happen here.

Here's how I look at it: Chrono Trigger was 60/40ing Melee and Melee got it to 51/49, with a vote influx of about 30k votes.

CT/Melee - 72k
MGS3/ME2 - 41k

FF7 is probably more or less equal to CT - maybe a little weaker, maybe a little stronger, who knows. FF7 had zero matches against reputable competition and its one decent match - FF6 - was wrecked by the Melee rallying.

So let's say Melee gets to 51/49 against FF7. Now we have to take Undertale's rally into account. Undertale brought in 120k votes against Pokemon, and could have gone higher if the match was still in question. The vast majority of those votes were brought in by Undertale though Pokemon had something to say about it too.

Which way is the Undertale fanbase likely to turn? I'm going to guess FF7. GameFAQs is known for being one of the biggest Chrono Trigger communities on the internet but it's one of the biggest Smash ones too. FF7 is vastly more popular than Melee on the general internet, especially for younger people. FF7 remake is a huge goddamn deal. Melee? It's just another Smash game and that's not going to move the needle. The Smash community put forth a good effort and they might be able to go above and beyond here, but the Undertale community has done this on a totally different level. Smash needs its A game to survive here.

transience's prediction: Final Fantasy VII with 56.44%
---
Moltar Status: hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
12/10/2015 7:54:50 PM#255
Leonhartís Analysis

If itís an argument of natural strength, Final Fantasy VII wins. Even if you think Chrono Trigger beats it now, it doesnít go 60/40 on it the way it was looking to do against Melee. Of course, this isnít an argument of natural strength or weíd be talking about CT/FFVII instead. The issue here is that the Melee rally doesnít feel like as much of a sure thing as Undertale does. It almost felt like the perfect storm happened, and I donít know if they could replicate it. Of course, thereís nothing easier in the world to rally against than Final Fantasy VII, especially here where it always wins. And to make matters worse for FFVII, itís also going to have to deal with spillover from the Undertale rally. I donít know that itíll necessarily favor Melee to an overwhelming degree like it did whenever Pokemon shared the poll with it, but I figure itís at least a little in Meleeís favor.

Final Fantasy VII can win if itís still stronger naturally than Chrono Trigger (which is questionable) and/or if the Melee rally isnít as effective as last round (or if by some miracle the Undertale people favor FFVII, because of Remake hype or something, who knows). I really want Final Fantasy VII to win here. I do think itís got a shot. Itís not a lock like the next match is. Eh, Iíve got a little bit of leeway here since Iím sweeping todayís matches, so why not? Avenge your fallen brother, Cloud!

Leonhartís Vote: Final Fantasy VII

Leonhartís Prediction: Final Fantasy VII with 52.05%



Kleenexís Analysis

Weíve got ourselves a one-way ticket to Rallytown today. The results today are going to be so fucked itís tough to nail anything concrete down but hereís to trying. Melee is the question mark. We know Undertale is going to rally, its happened four times now, thereís no reason for it to stop. Thatís going to push Undertale over Mario 64 pretty easily, especially after how badly it smoked Pokemon. If I had to venture a guess, Iíd say that the Underfolk will favor Final Fantasy VII in this matchup. FF7 is already naturally stronger, we know this. The question is, does Melee show up to rally? It did last round, and it did in a match it was never in danger of losing against GSC. Opinion seems to be split here, the rally force doesnít seem quite as invested and even last round it was still only barely able to make it past Chrono Trigger. If the Undertale influence does indeed favor FF7, Iím inclined to side with it in this match. It seems like unless Melee comes out harder than it did last round, FF7 should be able to skate by today. No one really knows, but thatís my best guess.

Final Fantasy VII with 53%



Guestís Analysis - Bane



Crew Consensus: FF7 active time beats Melee
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Moltar Status: hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
GO MELEE

l BELIEVE
---
NEW YORK METS - 2015 National League Champions
woo on leon the prediction god's side here
---
xyzzy
Feels like an easy Melee win here.
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satoru iwata
I think so too. Prove me wrong, Leon!
---
I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword
No way tumblr doesn't favor FFVII with Cloud's bishonen Advent Children pic.
---
Video game companies don't care about you, so stop kissing their asses
(edited 12/10/2015 8:18:50 PM)reportquote
The idea that young people would have any fascination with FF7 over Smash Bros seems crazy, also! I would totally expect the Tumblr audience to be way more into the Smash side than an old ass RPG from 1997.
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satoru iwata
12/10/2015 8:30:36 PM#262
Really surprised at everyone here assuming Undertale is going to help FF7.

- tumblr crowd favored Animal Crossing massively over Mario World, dropping its percentage by 12 points

- ...even so they still favored Mario World when it went up against Final Fantasy 8, RAISING its percentage by 3 points

- they raised other characters in Smash as well, Sonic by 5 points, Pokemon by 10 points (against Mario 3), and the tail end of their rally supported Samus against Skyrim

They only time they've sided with anything FF it was going up against Vice City, which might very well be in the 120s in terms of games from this bracket they would support.

It would be super weird to me if FF7 was the exception to this year-long trend.

---
Have you listened to this week's episode of The Show yet, buddy?
board8.wikia.com | thengamer.com/xstats
No Bane? Fine. Let's do this.

DpOblivion's Unofficial Guru-Winning Analysis

It was clear before this contest even started that these contests are more than just inherent GameFAQs strength now. Now, Undertale appears to be the strongest in that regard for this contest, and that was pretty tough to see coming. However, I saw an opportunity in Super Smash Bros. Melee. A game that's already massively popular and with great natural contest strength here, but also a game with a large, dedicated community that, if given the opportunity, could rise up and defeat games in the upper tier.

So, I made the bold decision in my bracket, because you need a bold decision in order to win. Okay, it turns out Melee was the Guru favorite to make it this far, but I think a lot of that could have to do with playing it safe due to the indecision around CT vs FFX. But I went with it with confidence. And then I took it one step further. Yes, Super Smash Bros. Melee to beat Final Fantasy VII. It could happen, I figured. And it could. And I could be on the verge of winning Guru because of it. As an original member, I want to do the Crew proud.

It's still a bit of a matter as to whether the rally will show up. It showed up a bit in a match where it didn't even need it. It showed up for Chrono Trigger, but with some thought that it would be a one-time thing. I'm gonna bank on it coming though. Of course, the bigger matter is the Undertale rally and the debate as to which game it favors. Personally, I feel it will favor Melee. Yes, Final Fantasy VII is widely respected everywhere, but so what? I just feel like that crowd is more likely to play and favor Smash. And when its own rally is gonna be pushing it, the Undertale spillover will propel it over the edge. And if by chance there is any counter-rally attempt for SM64, that should favor Melee as well, although that probably won't be much of a factor, if at all

Besides, who needs fancy stats or analysis? I picked Metal Gear Solid 3 to win today because I felt it would win, and that turned out to be right. I believed in MGS3. And I believe in Melee. Now don't let me down.

DpOblivion's bracket says: Super Smash Bros. Melee

DpOblivion's prediction is: Super Smash Bros. wins with 51.13%
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NEW YORK METS - 2015 National League Champions
(edited 12/10/2015 8:42:09 PM)reportquote
12/10/2015 8:48:04 PM#264
Now THAT'S more like it!

*high fives a fellow Melee > FF7 bracketman* (only 27 out of 200)
---
Have you listened to this week's episode of The Show yet, buddy?
board8.wikia.com | thengamer.com/xstats
Well actually, I took it two steps further, taking Melee over SM64 as well. Not that it's gonna matter anymore because there's an Undertale in the way.
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NEW YORK METS - 2015 National League Champions
I took Melee to win the contest. Top that!
---
Currently playing: The Witcher III: Wild Hunt
You really think Undertale would favor FFVII? Literally the FFVII that everyone complains about? The FFVII that always wins GameFAQs? Any anti-GameFAQs site would anti-vote FFVII easily, especially if it means drinking FFVII fanboys salt.
---
The only ray of light in my life is raytan7585.
when thinking of Krystal, does GMUN's pants get overcrowded? ~ GMUN
Picking Melee to the finals takes balls. Picking Melee to beat OoT is just foolish. I'm not worried about you spoiling things for me, Big Bob!
---
NEW YORK METS - 2015 National League Champions
At the gaming club at my school, they only really care about League and Smash (specifically Project M and Melee). There's a lot of "memers" in that club. They all like Undertale.
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Cranky's Advice - "git gud"
Oh yea, I guess raytan won.
I don't know that Mario World/FFVIII is the best example. Remake is a big deal on the internet now. FFVIII hasn't had anything relevant since Squall showed up in Kingdom Hearts. I wouldn't expect Tumblr to favor Melee by any significant margin.

That being said, I'm not convinced Melee can work up the same rally power it did last time, and that's why I'm leaning FFVII. It really feels like they blew their wad beating Chrono Trigger. I acknowledge Melee is probably the favorite here, but I'm rolling with FFVII because of my logic from yesterday: If my favorite has a chance, roll with the fanboy pick!
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I'm surprised most of you guys went ff7, I thought I was gonna be the outlier here
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http://i.imgur.com/RHvCiY3.png
Yeah, I kinda expected to be the only FFVII picker here, too, but I had some leeway to work with!
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http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif
12/10/2015 9:33:58 PM#273
Quarterfinals: Round 5 - Match 122 Ė (3) Super Smash Bros. Melee vs. (2) Final Fantasy VII

Moltarís Analysis

Undertale
Round 1 - 50.95% vs Mass Effect 3
Round 2 - 55.74% vs Fallout 3
Round 3 - 54.84% vs Super Mario World
Round 4 - 51.52% vs Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow/Green Version

Super Mario 64
Round 1 - 80.04% vs Mario Kart 8
Round 2 - 66.23% vs Final Fantasy Tactics
Round 3 - 56.87% vs The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess
Round 4 - 61.27% vs The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim

If SMW couldnít stop Undertale, SM64 wonít. This should go more like the SMW match than the Pokemon, with Undertale taking the lead relatively early and using the late afternoon to put this out of reach.

Melee fans that show up should lean towards SM64, but I'm pretty sure their numbers won't be enough to counter Undertale's rallying power.

Moltarís Bracket: Pokemon

Moltarís Prediction: Undertale Ė 54%



Transienceís Analysis

Smash fans will vote for SM64 over Undertale. That's its best argument. Unfortunately, Undertale has just one-upped every previous performance.

Mass Effect 3 - 55k votes
Fallout 3 - 81k votes
Mario World - 98k votes
Pokemon RBY - 119k votes

What happens when this poll brings in like 150k votes? Undertale wins, that's what. Not convincingly and not right away, but it'll happen. It always happens.

transience's prediction: Undertale with 52.15%



Leonhartís Analysis

We just saw Undertale tank Pokemonís best shot and then steamroll past it like it was nothing. Super Mario 64 has none of the advantages Pokemon had last round except for one: Melee rallying in the other match. That rally should favor Mario 64, you would think. However, there is one potential problem. The vote gap between CT/Melee and FFVI/FFVII was bigger than the vote gap between Undertale/Pokemon and Mario 64/Skyrim despite the latter matches drawing well over 100,000 votes. Melee fans are drones! Only their game deserves votes! Iím (mostly) joking, of course, but I still donít think itíll be enough, even with Melee spillover. Iím kind of curious how high the vote totals will go today. Undertale seems to redouble its efforts every round, and weíre going to have two rallies going at once. 150,000 votes, anyone? Eh, thatís probably a bit too optimistic, but itís good to see vote totals hitting six digits again!

Leonhartís Vote: Super Mario 64

Leonhartís Prediction: Undertale with 55.55%



Kleenexís Analysis

Mario 64 is gonna get stomped. I already sort of covered this in the first writeup, but after how Pokemon bowed out, Mario doesnít really stand a chance here. I suspect this one will go similarly to the Mario World match. I donít think 64 is as resilient as Pokemon and wonít build up nearly as big of a lead before the floodgates open and bury it.

Undertale with 56%



Guestís Analysis - paulg235

We've already seen this match.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/6152-best-game-ever-day-27-round-3-undertale-vs-super-mario-world

No reason to believe Undertale isn't laying the smackdown on Mario 64, either. With Pokťmon slain, Undertale is set to continue its Genocide run with no game being spared. This could be the most dominant victory Undertale will have in this contest.

Prediction - Undertale - 57.45%
My Vote - Super Mario 64



Crew Consensus: The genocide route continues
---
Moltar Status: hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
I wrote more than anyone about this match today.

Shame on the rest of you.
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http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif
Melee ain't Mario. I mean who knows there but let's not equate the two.
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add the c and back away
iphonesience
SHIT I thought I had another day for some reason. Fucking Jesus I'm so bad.
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"Have you ever wondered if there was more to life, other than being really, really, ridiculously good looking?"
12/10/2015 10:24:25 PM#278
Still calling it a tumblr rally when most votes come from reddit

Ya'll racist
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http://myanimelist.net/profile/angryaria
<Die the death>! <Sentence to death>! <Great equalizer is the death>!!
no they actually all come from the Undertale bot
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http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif
Super Late Guest Analysis - Bane


So with that thrashing Melee ended up doing on Chrono Trigger, things aren't looking too well for FF7. And THEN we have to add in Undertale rally spillover! Wow. So can Melee pull another rally like it had last round? Although based almost purely on Reddit and so it differs itself from the Undertale rally, I think Melee Reddit fans will keep an eye out for it again this time as well. And honestly, they have even more of a reason to rally it. It's going against BIG BAD FF7. The epitome of "overrated well known mammoth" games.

FF7 isn't gonna keel over though. It was already doing fairly decent on FF6 before the rally last time affected it, so it still has strength. And we don't know how exactly the Undertale rally will affect this match, on The Show I said Melee would most likely benefit more but I was still very unsure. FF7 is so iconic that you can tell what it is in just one shot, and even people on Tumblr who aren't gamers know what FF7 is and at the very least "that dude with the blond spiky hair and large sword". Like FF7 is the best representation of the FF series for a lot of people.

So we got ourselves quite the match! .......I'm gonna give the edge for Melee but I'm really rooting for FF7 to pull it out. Because even though being the huge game it is, I think it's truly the underdog in this match when taking all the factors into account.

Melee with 52.67%
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"Have you ever wondered if there was more to life, other than being really, really, ridiculously good looking?"
12/10/2015 10:42:40 PM#281
Atta boy Bane, totally redeemed yourself.
---
Have you listened to this week's episode of The Show yet, buddy?
board8.wikia.com | thengamer.com/xstats
going against the eventual Crew champ doesn't sound like redemption to me tbqh
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http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif
LeonhartFour posted...
going against the eventual Crew champ doesn't sound like redemption to me tbqh


To be fair, I am rooting for FF7. Just not sure if it can outdo the rally but it really ends on what Tumblr decides to do.
---
"Have you ever wondered if there was more to life, other than being really, really, ridiculously good looking?"
Master Moltar posted...
Quarterfinals: Round 5 - Match 122 Ė (3) Super Smash Bros. Melee vs. (2) Final Fantasy VII
*bunch of Undertale/Mario 64*
Crew Consensus: The genocide route continues


yeah uh....lol
12/10/2015 11:06:58 PM#285
whoops copypaste fail
---
Moltar Status: hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
so we get 3 days of Undertale and OoT matches all on their own huh
---
http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif
CT > FF7

it is known
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Communists
Leon's fanboy power has disappeared
---
I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword
Leon's fanboy power only works when it doesn't benefit his bracket.
LeonhartFour posted...
so we get 3 days of Undertale and OoT matches all on their own huh


And the first Undertale match in the semifinals is likely the most interesting one.
I don't understand why the Crew had FF 7 winning. Everyone agrees that CT was stronger than FF 7 this year and Melee beat it because of a rally. So they kept doing the rally and of course FF 7 lost badly.
---
Why do we exist?What happens when we stop existing?
124 Gurus were better than me in BGE 2015 contest!
because we didn't know if melee was actually going to rally at all/as hard as it did against CT.
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http://i.imgur.com/RHvCiY3.png
I guess these Melee fans thought that FF 7 is stronger than CT so they rallied harder or something like that.
---
Why do we exist?What happens when we stop existing?
124 Gurus were better than me in BGE 2015 contest!
rallying takes some organization, and melee only started rallies of any kind against CT, the day of (i suspect the state of mind was also more like "whoa, melee got far, i wonder if it can do this" rather than "this is final boss mode we must slay the behemoth")

it makes sense that the second rally is stronger than the first. the rally against undertale will be stronger yet.
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I like this guy - Shiny Mewtwo
ZeldaTPLink posted...
Leon's fanboy power only works when it doesn't benefit his bracket.


My bracket was dead a long time ago!
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http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif
Also, I feel like the "rally war" next round won't be much of a war.
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http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif
I feel like people are underestimating Smash.

We have seen what Undertale can do when it's about to lose.

We haven't seen what Smash can do.

Both sides will rally the fuck out of this match since it's basically the contest finals.

(unless Link can pull what he did against Draven again).
We did. Melee was getting crushed early and CT was coming back late.
---
http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif

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