GameFAQs Contests
Best. Game. Ever. Contest Analysis Crew - Part 5
Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow/Green Version 48.48% 58126 Undertale 51.52% 61769 TOTAL VOTES 119895 The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim 38.73% 43688 Super Mario 64 61.27% 69099 TOTAL VOTES 112787 Crew Predictions: 108/116 What Happened: Undertale goes bonkers in the afternoon to blow Pokemon away. Mario 64 beats up Skyrim. Crew Curse? more like Crew rocked the board consensus on UT/RBY which was 50/50. What Will Happen: a double rally with Melee/Undertale next round. that could be wild. Crew Prediction Challenge: points! except for Kleenex Leonhart: 107 Moltar: 107 Guest: 103 Kleenex: 102 transience: 100 Crew Accuracy Challenge: tran gets Mario 64, Moltar gets Undertale Leonhart: 25 Moltar: 23.5 Kleenex: 22 transience: 21.5 Guest: 18 --- xyzzy |
Still
looks like LttP would have only ended up worth around 54% on Majora at
the end of the day, which is not an OoT beating performance. Combine
that with Undertale spillover heavily favoring OoT and next round
probably gets messy. --- http://i.imgur.com/RHvCiY3.png |
Perfect
Dark and Deus Ex both projected LTTP to win with 55% here. I wouldn't
doubt some spillover helped Majora jump out to an early lead. After all,
their average age is much younger than ours, and OoT and Majora were
the games of their childhood, not LTTP. However, LTTP wasn't going to
crush it either way. I don't think so anyway. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
That, and B8 loves Majora's Mask a lot, so that probably contributed to that big early lead with the board vote. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
Division 7: Round 4 - Match 119 – (9) Super Mario RPG: Legend of the Seven Stars vs. (2) Resident Evil 4 Moltar’s Analysis Super Mario RPG: Legend of the Seven Stars Round 1 - 54.43% vs The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion Round 2 - 57.20% vs Grand Theft Auto V Round 3 - 60.74% vs Chrono Cross Resident Evil 4 Round 1 - 58.87% vs Paper Mario Round 2 - 58.11% vs Fallout: New Vegas Round 3 - 54.44% vs Metal Gear Solid 2: Sons of Liberty There’s a lot of hype for SMRPG going around. It escaped the top half of its division, it’s a SNES Nintendo/Square game, and it’s facing a beatable looking RE4. It already took down the 1-seed, can it also beat the 2? It can. In fact, based on the stats it’s projected to win in a close match. I don’t know about that though. Oblivion was the only proven legit opponent it has beaten, and Oblivion is no world-beater. It’s not even a Skyrim. RE4 is no world-beater either, but I feel it ends up closer to Skyrim than Oblivion. RE4 has also beaten tougher opponents like MGS2, which I’m not 100% sure would beat SMRPG (might not on 2015 OLDFAQS). This should be close either way, but I’m sticking with RE4 here. Give me MGS2 > Oblivion. Moltar’s Bracket: Resident Evil 4 Moltar’s Prediction: Resident Evil 4 – 52% Transience’s Analysis This match is fascinating. Results and overall trends really favor Mario RPG which wouldn't have been expected by most pre-contest. The SNES has done great and RE4 has had a number of pretty middling performances. I don't think it's cleared 60% yet! Meanwhile, SMRPG has gone to town during the early vote three times in a row. I think most stat projections prediction like a 52-53% win for SMRPG. I'm going to buck that trend though. I get worried when picking a 90s Mario/Square game against a 00s Resident Evil, but like, Mario RPG is a one region game. Mario RPG might have the biggest Europe-America disparity in the whole contest. That might not matter when facing the Chrono Crosses and GTAs and Oblivions of the world, but we're talking about a modern classic in RE4. Can Mario RPG really get by without having much support from the Europeans? Mario RPG is a game driven by nostalgia primarily and Europe just doesn't have those feelings at all. Give me RE4 even though I think it's the weaker game. Expect Mario RPG to be whipping it early though even though RE4 has a great early vote. transience's prediction: Resident Evil 4 with 52.25% --- Moltar Status: hype Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
Leonhart’s Analysis I think Super Mario RPG’s got a real chance here. I wasn’t sure I believed it before last round, but I do now. My one big concern is, of course, its complete lack of European presence. Resident Evil 4 will definitely be the strongest opponent it’s faced so far, and it’ll need to jump out to a big lead early to have a chance. At the same time, Mario RPG is the toughest opponent RE4 has faced so far, and it hasn’t really looked that impressive in any of its wins. It’s still a strong game, of course, but it hasn’t looked to be out of Mario RPG’s league by any stretch. All of their performances seem pretty comparable, actually. 55% on Oblivion and 55% on MGS2 seems like a wash. 60% on Chrono Cross vs. 59% on Paper Mario and New Vegas looks about the same to me. One of my rules has always been, in the event of a tossup, just go with the fanboy pick. I think this will be really close either way, but I’m going to roll with Super Mario RPG and hope for the best! Just think: This would be a top ten game on the site if it’d had a proper European release. It might even be the strongest Mario game! Just think about that! What might have been. Leonhart’s Vote: Super Mario RPG Leonhart’s Prediction: Super Mario RPG with 50.75% Kleenex’s Analysis Today is probably our last day of 'pure' results from this contest. Luckily we have two interesting matches to end on a high note. Mario RPG has been chopping up its competition more than anyone expected, while RE4 has done pretty much the opposite. SMRPG has certainly been the vastly more impressive of the two, but when you look back at their respective halves of the division, it gets more cloudy. SMRPG's half was weak. Very weak. It pains me to say this as Chrono Cross is there, but it's true. RE4's was more a smattering of midcarders. Based on the quality of opponents I've talked myself into picking RE4 here. I think Mario will start the match with a lead, but that game has been super joke-y this year, so it will likely lose it as the match wears on, allowing RE to win a close one. Resident Evil 4 with 52% Guest’s Analysis - BT Crew Consensus: RE4 guns down Mario --- Moltar Status: hype Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
Lopen's unofficial emergency guest analysis: Where'd all the guests go, bingo? Anyway I think RE4 should be able to hold strong here. Not buying any of those games it has beaten as particularly legit, and MGS2 should be a bit stronger than SMRPG, so a fairly close match where RE4 is set to win is on the horizon. Lopen's prediction: RE4 with 55.25% --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
Division 8: Round 4 - Match 120 – (1) Metal Gear Solid vs. (3) Metal Gear Solid 3: Snake Eater Moltar’s Analysis Metal Gear Solid Round 1 - 79.07% vs Splatoon Round 2 - 60.34% vs EarthBound Round 3 - 53.56% vs Shadow of the Colossus Metal Gear Solid 3: Snake Eater Round 1 - 69.50% vs Mother 3 Round 2 - 52.03% vs BioShock Round 3 - 60.64% vs Mass Effect 2 To me, this match is less about inherent strength and more about the taste of MGS fans. GameFAQs hasn’t really been consistent in these kind of inter-series matches, especially when the games are close in strength. Hell, we’re seeing LttP struggle against MM, when pretty much everything prior to this gave LttP the easy advantage. MGS is the more popular game, having been played by a larger audience as the first game in the series. MGS3 is the more beloved game, as fans of the series generally consider 3 as the best game in it. I think that because of that split, this should be like KH/KH2, and that it’ll be a close match either way. This is pretty much just pick a side and hope you end up being right. My bracket says that the original MGS wins, and comparing performances on Shadow of the Colossus, that may in fact end up being the right choice. Moltar’s Bracket: Metal Gear Solid Moltar’s Prediction: Metal Gear Solid – 51% Transience’s Analysis Man, I just don't know. I want to just pick MGS and end this writeup but that seemed to cause friction last time. Plus, MGS1 struggled to beat SOTC while MGS3 went to town against Mass Effect 2. If we had to deal with spill-over I might back MGS3. I think modern fans have moved on from the original MGS in a way that GameFAQs just won't. Percentages here are hard but I'll side with a low-mid 50s number because why not? It doesn't feel like MGS would SFF the whole series and I think that's probably about the gap between 1 and 3. transience's prediction: Metal Gear Solid with 56.55% Leonhart’s Analysis I picked MGS1 to win this match and haven’t really second guessed that pick…until now. MGS1 hasn’t really been that impressive all contest, but neither has MGS3, aside from that surprising 60/40 beatdown it laid on Mass Effect 2. The SOTC match started planting some seeds of doubt into my mind that maybe the gap between MGS1 and MGS3 isn’t that big, after all. And then LTTP/Majora’s Mask happened. The unthinkable happened. THE ZELDA HIERARCHY HAS FLIPPED! Is it so crazy to think that the Metal Gear Solid hierarchy has flipped, too?! METAL GEAR?! I don’t know what’s going on anymore, but MGS3 making a dream run to the semifinals Of course, it’s always important to remember that this contest hates me (although the Pokemon reverse jinx finally paid off! Thanks, Undertale!), so I’m sure it’s just giving me a bunch of false hope so it can pull the rug out from under me at the worst possible moment. Nevertheless, I will choose to believe! Like I said in the last writeup, when in doubt, roll with the fanboy pick! *salutes* Leonhart’s Vote: Metal Gear Solid 3 Leonhart’s Prediction: Metal Gear Solid 3 with 50.30% --- Moltar Status: hype Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
Kleenex’s Analysis Either Mass Effect 2 is super weak or MGS3 wins this. I'm not actually sure which, though. Based on MGS3's first two rounds, I'm inclined to go the weak ME2 route. There's no doubt that these are our two strongest Metal Gear games and that they're probably pretty close, but I just have a bad feeling about MGS3's half of the division. Some of those results just aren't jiving with me and I think it's because all those games are just bad. Which is a very inconclusive way to say that I think MGS1 takes this. Metal Gear Solid with 55% Guest’s Analysis - whatisurnameplz It’s felt like forever since I did one of these. The most important thing to bring up is probably both games’ respective performances against Shadow of the Colossus: MGS3 in 2010, and MGS1 a few days ago. MGS1 vs. SotC in 2015: MGS1 wins with 53.56% MGS3 vs. SotC in 2013: MGS3 wins with 50.62% We also have performances in this year’s contest: MGS3 Match X-stats: MGS3 – 50.00% BioShock – 47.97% Turd of the Conte- I mean, Mass Effect 2 – 39.36% StarCraft – 38.48% Silent Hill 2 – 37.00% Mother 3 – 30.5% Destiny – 19.63% Virtue’s Last Reward – 16.47% MGS1 Match X-stats: MGS1 – 50.00% Shadow of the Colossus – 46.44% EarthBound – 39.66% Red Dead Redemption – 37.87% Borderlands 2 – 32.82% Bayonetta 2 – 27.27% Team Fortress 2 – 25.37% Splatoon – 20.93% The only thing that really looks off here is BioShock; it’s probably stronger than ME2, but the StarCraft rally spillover boosted it a lot in its match. I’ll pick MGS1 to win here. I keep hearing that a large part of the MGS fanbase thinks 3 is the best game, but look at today’s match; the modern-day Zelda fanbase vastly prefers MM to LttP, yet not even the spillover from yesterday could give MM the win over LttP (writing this at 730pm EST, if MM somehow regains the lead then lolme). It’s been the case all contest that 90s > 2000s unless rallies are involved, and this match won’t be any difference. MGS1 – 53.05% Crew Consensus: Snake > Big Boss --- Moltar Status: hype Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
I
believe. I stuck with MGS3 in my bracket despite the board trying to
convince me otherwise. I figured okay, so MGS will probably win, but I'm
gonna go for it. And hey, outside of apparently being drunk when it
came to anything Blizzard, my bracket's been surprisingly pretty good.
Currently 25th on the leaderboard, 8th in Guru (yeah, I'll toot my own
horn, screw you). It's weird since personally I prefer MGS1, but I was under the impression and assumption that MGS3 was the more esteemed and beloved in the series. Now, I could be wrong, and it'll be a shame if I went against bias for a false assumption and it broke my bracket. But....I believe. Also, pic factor. --- NEW YORK METS - 2015 National League Champions |
Sorry for being late TuRtLe's Analysis This turned from a sure win for RE4 to a heavily debated match pretty quickly, based on last round's performances. RE4 looked disappointing while Mario RPG embarrassed beat what appeared to be a stronger Chrono Cross. A lot of people on the board are going to take the upset here with Mario RPG looking impressive all contest, but the more I think about it the more I think that Mario RPG's half of this division was pretty heavily overrated. I have to give the nod to RE4 here, simply because I think that Metal Gear Solid 2 wipes the floor with Chrono Cross. TuRtLe's Prediction: RE4 with 53.52% TuRtLe's Bracaket: RE4 > GTAV TuRtLe's Vote: Mario RPG --- Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy -trancer1 lol xstats |
I guess this is a make or break day for me if I can sweep I've pretty much got both Crew championships on lockdown if not I'm boned (what are the odds the contest doesn't hate me anymore) --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
well I guess if I split it's a zero sum game I'm kinda surprised nobody else went with MGS3, but I expected to be the only SMRPG picker. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
Wow,
a 4-1 split in favor of MGS1. I feel better about MGS1, because at
least it's been more consistent in its results, not having any
impressive performances, but no disappointing performances either. MGS3
has had 2 rounds of disappointing performances and one round where it
looked very impressive. This feels a lot like Melee/Brawl in terms of being a coin-flip type prediction. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ! |
Well, at the worst, I'll split. MGS3 ain't losing. RE4/SMRPG is still a tossup if it's under 55/45 at the end of the hour. SMRPG's Euro vote is that bad. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
LeonhartFour posted... Lopen posted...and MGS2 should be a bit stronger than SMRPG --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
....what's going on. Why are MGS 3 and SMRPG both in front? Damn Leon fanboy picks winning the day is a travesty. --- "I do because I can." http://card.psnprofiles.com/1/Micer101.png |
the bottom quarter of this bracket is going to look so bad by the end of this contest --- http://i.imgur.com/RHvCiY3.png |
Safer_777 posted... I will only listen to Leonhart from now on! The true hero of the crew! Aw yeah I'm practically going to do a wire to wire Crew win in both challenges! Actually I guess I could still lose, but there are, what, two debatable matches the rest of the contest after this? FFVII/Melee and MGS3/SMRPG? --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
most_games_r_ok posted... Leon fanboy picks winning the day is a triumph. IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII'M STIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIL IN A DREEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEAM SNAKE EATEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEERRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
LeonhartFour posted... Safer_777 posted...I will only listen to Leonhart from now on! The true hero of the crew! just don't throw it all away with a silly pick in the finals --- http://i.imgur.com/RHvCiY3.png |
