Well I mean for me it's not even a "hopeful" pick. Like I'm not gonna be happy to see Pokemon win there. Pokemon would be sorta like "oh that Pokemon did it again, yawn" and honestly Pokemon winning the whole contest would be... vaguely more palatable than Undertale, if only because it feels like "our" result to some extent. But not something I'd be happy with seeing in the least.
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
go my tumblr
---
http://myanimelist.net/profile/angryaria
<Die the death>! <Sentence to death>! <Great equalizer is the death>!!
12/7/2015 9:48:03 PM#103
Division 4: Round 4 - Match 116 – (1) The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim vs. (3) Super Mario 64

Moltar’s Analysis

The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim
Round 1 - 66.62% vs Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney
Round 2 - 59.05% vs GoldenEye 007
Round 3 - 50.64% vs Metroid Prime

Super Mario 64
Round 1 - 80.04% vs Mario Kart 8
Round 2 - 66.23% vs Final Fantasy Tactics
Round 3 - 56.87% vs The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess

Mario 64 would have won this even without all the rallying going on, and it certainly isn't going to lose with it. Skyrim probably looks really bad here due to the extra votes but oh well.

Moltar’s Bracket: Super Mario 64

Moltar’s Prediction: Super Mario 64 - 65%



Transience’s Analysis

Mario 64/Skyrim is probably like a 57/43 type of match before the rally. After? It's hard to say, but Mario World got the massive edge vs. FF8 so I'll go like that. Skyrim had a nice contest, all told, and it's nice to see at least one game stand up to it. It's possible that Prime = Super Metroid and Skyrim = Majora's Mask. Not betting on that though. Sorry, Skyrim, but you probably get buried here.

transience's prediction: Mario 64 with 63.33%


Leonhart’s Analysis

Skyrim had a nice victory over Metroid Prime last round. I think it established itself as the strongest western game in the field and the strongest game of the decade thus far, but unfortunately, that won’t be enough to beat Mario 64. Even with Metroid’s resurgence this contest, I don’t see how Metroid Prime beats Mario 64 after the way it easily handled Twilight Princess. I suppose Skyrim’s best hope is that the Tumblr rally helps it because Tumblr apparently likes Skyrim a lot. And it might happen! Who knows. This is the first time Skyrim has had to share the poll with Undertale instead of just having to deal with rally spillover. Should be interesting, at least.

Leonhart’s Vote: Super Mario 64

Leonhart’s Prediction: Super Mario 64 with 56.55%



Kleenex’s Analysis

Anyway, seeing as we’re going off the rails here we might as well really go off the rails. Tumblr has shown no love for The Super Mario across the first three rounds and I still think Skyrim is pretty well liked over there. It’s time to FUS RO DAH Mario the fuck out of here. That’s all I got because there’s not actually any logic behind this prediction.

Skyrim with 51%


Guest’s Analysis - Football

So before the contest I had a crazy hopeful idea. That old games would deboost somewhat, and a select few games from the recent past would look really good. The game I backed was Skyrim, with its crazy performance in that game of the generation poll. And this would be the match if would take its place as one of the strongest games on the site, and start a bandwagon effect that would carry it to the finals.

That was silly.

Skyrim didn’t blow out Phoenix, looked pretty decent against Goldeneye, and then pretty much equaled what Fallout 3 did against Metroid Prime a few years ago. While it proved that it belonged in the contest as a high seed, it simply is not going to be in the same class as 64.

The only question at this point is how the assumed rallies for Undertale and/or Pokemon will vote in this match. I do believe it will be fairly close between these two, but not nearly enough to make it an interesting match. Maybe next time Skyrim : (


Mario 64 with 58.88%



Crew Consensus: Strongest Mario wins
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Moltar Status: hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
Master Moltar posted...
Strongest Mario wins


Super Mario RPG doesn't have a match tomorrow...
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http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif
Lopen's unofficial guest analysis:

Well I was with Kleenex on this until Skyrim couldn't even break 51% on Metroid Prime. Kinda seems like a lost cause now even with rally runoff. Think it'll be closer than it looks though.

Lopen's prediction:
Mario 64 with 54.08%
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
Just wanted to say thank you to the Crew for another contest full of exciting analyses. Your individual voices are always a pleasure to read. I always lurk on B8 during the contests and it's a lot of fun. Your analyses even moved me to enter one year and finish one point below the score that would've landed me in the final top 50 leaderboard (in Winter 2010), despite not being much of a gamer at all.

Thanks to moltar and kleenextissue for your write-ups to Pokemon RBY/Undertale which compelled me to come out of lurking for this one post. I confess that I love melee, gta, cod, halo and many of the games you guys don't like and ESPECIALLY Pokemon omg <333 (oh and special mention to metroid prime too bc it brought me to this site) and i hope pokemon wins and almost always vote against what Leon votes for (casual gamer vs real gamer taste maybe lol), but it saddens me too to see rallies somewhat ruining the fun.

anyway tl;dr thank you to the crew (both this year's and that of years past), will miss reading these :')
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hi :]
you know

it would be great if these writeups went on the wiki

if only to provide a counterpoint to Ulti's inevitable PCA rants about how great rallies are
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thelefty for analysis crew 2008 imo -tranny
I have a third degree burn in flame-o-nomics -Sir Chris
I'd be shocked if Mario 64 got anywhere near 65% on Skyrim.
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XBL Gamertag - Tiirshak
PSN ID - Kudaark Steam Name : skaalfa
does anyone even read the PCA anymore
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http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif
I'm forced to read PCAs of past contests whenever I want to look at the B8 Wiki for a result.

There's some hilarious things in there. Unintentionally, of course.
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The only ray of light in my life is raytan7585.
when thinking of Krystal, does GMUN's pants get overcrowded? ~ GMUN
12/7/2015 11:16:11 PM#111
Qwaar posted...
I'd be shocked if Mario 64 got anywhere near 65% on Skyrim.


shocked yet?
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Moltar Status: hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
Skyrim brings this down quite a bit. Probably ends 60-40 naturally, and if the inevitable Undertale 'rally' favors it'll gain even more.
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
12/7/2015 11:21:24 PM#113
thinking the opposite might happen actually
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Moltar Status: hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
That's looking likely it seems. I mean Skyrim seems to actually be dropping and it's always had a bad early vote
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
Chrono Trigger - SSBM was the first Crew Curse match in a long time.
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Geothermal terpsichorean ejectamenta
that one doesn't even count because it wasn't (shouldn't have been) a debatable match imho
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http://i.imgur.com/RHvCiY3.png
Chrono Trigger 49.24% 35806
Super Smash Bros. Melee 50.76% 36915
TOTAL VOTES 72721

Final Fantasy VI 39.95% 25947
Final Fantasy VII 60.05% 39001
TOTAL VOTES 64948

Crew Predictions: 106/114

What Happened: urgh

What Will Happen: FF7/Melee is an easy FF7 win without rally. with the rally? who knows

Crew Prediction Challenge: tran misses ff6, everyone misses CT

Leonhart: 105
Moltar: 105
Guest: 101
Kleenex: 101
transience: 98

Crew Accuracy Challenge: Kleenex gets FF7

Leonhart: 25
Moltar: 22.5
Kleenex: 22
transience: 20.5
Guest: 18
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xyzzy
Gotta agree that the Leonhart and tranny writeups on Undertale - Pokémon shouldn't have been that short (mind you that these same guys were bashing LMS for not writing an extensive analysis on the fucking SMW - Animal Crossing match). "There's nothing to say about it" is bullshit - there's plenty of stuff you can say about it, as Lopen pointed out. I understand that doing multiple writeups a day gets tiring, but as someone who likes the CAC topics and reads everything in them, I'd appreciate it if you guys put in the slightest bit of effort.
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Geothermal terpsichorean ejectamenta
Master Moltar posted...
Qwaar posted...
I'd be shocked if Mario 64 got anywhere near 65% on Skyrim.


shocked yet?


Fair play, you called it. Legit shocked by the beatdown.
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XBL Gamertag - Tiirshak
PSN ID - Kudaark Steam Name : skaalfa
Mr Lasastryke posted...
Gotta agree that the Leonhart and tranny writeups on Undertale - Pokémon shouldn't have been that short (mind you that these same guys were bashing LMS for not writing an extensive analysis on the fucking SMW - Animal Crossing match). "There's nothing to say about it" is bullshit - there's plenty of stuff you can say about it, as Lopen pointed out. I understand that doing multiple writeups a day gets tiring, but as someone who likes the CAC topics and reads everything in them, I'd appreciate it if you guys put in the slightest bit of effort.


Get ready for the blowout of the contest!
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"Nothing I could do!"
-Darksydephil
also Pokemon is totally going to win because that's what keeps my guru bracket alive and that thing will just not die

I should have seen this coming!
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http://i.imgur.com/RHvCiY3.png
Undertale has its work cut out for it but it's been up to the task all contest. we'll see. this thing's gonna have more votes than MGS3/ME2 by like 9am.
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xyzzy
The write-ups are okay. With a rally Undertale wins. Without a rally Undertale loses. What else is there to say?
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Why do we exist?What happens when we stop existing?
124 Gurus were better than me in BGE 2015 contest!
Safer_777 posted...
With a rally Undertale wins.


Why? It could very well lose with a rally if Pokémon gets a big enough counter-rally.

What else is there to say?


You can discuss the possibility of a Pokémon rally and the question if such a rally would be enough to win, the popularity of Pokémon among the Tumblr crowd (and how that differs the game from the previous Undertale opponents, which weren't popular among the Tumblr crowd at all), etc. Plenty of stuff to talk about. Certainly more than "undertale wins" and "meh who cares."
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Geothermal terpsichorean ejectamenta
Safer_777 posted...
The write-ups are okay. With a rally Undertale wins. Without a rally Undertale loses. What else is there to say?


Yo, long-time lurker here. I really appreciate the crew and reading their analysis. What's irking me right now though isn't in response to the "What else is there to say?" contention.

Leon and tranny, I appreciate your guys' utmost time and effort you've put into this throughout the years. However, upon reading that last batch of write-ups -- they come across as pouty attitudes rather than a "not much to say" mindset. I understand that the rallies are screwing with what we've come to expect. I'm kind of ambivalent about it myself, honestly.

So, as a member of your audience, I offer some sincere, unsolicited feedback (everyone's favorite).

I come to read the crew for the objective analysis. I can click on a plethora of other topics to read ish about whiny fanboys, conspiracy theorists, or whatever some complete nutjob has to say. With this last round of write-ups, I just really don't want this topic to morph into some implicit defeatist brooding bullshit now because CT, the admitted contest darling, got upended. Please shake off your respective biases enough to put a good faith effort into the analysis.

Granted, you ain't gotta do ish. This is all for fun and if it stopped being fun for you guys, then damn -- so be it. But I take it that you guys care about your craft. There's 1200 topics of evidence. So I say to you, if you want to keep your craft of high quality, then let's all try to keep having a good time around here even if we're not personally getting the results we want (even if we feel the game got screwed, rallies are bullshit, everything sucks shit, etc).

Moltar, keep up the great work, dude. Don't know how you're able to organize this and post on time consistently. Love your work too, bro.

Aiite, peace to everyone. I ain't mean to antagonize anyone but I did felt compelled to give my two cents and hope some good comes from it.
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KeepinItFresh since uhh... hell I don't know.
Pkmn Y: Banco // FC 4038-7387-9954
Pokemon is still holding strong right now. Hopefully if it does defeat undertale then all the rallies just die.....is probably wishful thinking but I can hope!
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"I do because I can."
http://card.psnprofiles.com/1/Micer101.png
pokemon was always the real monster here

save_us.undertale
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http://i.imgur.com/RHvCiY3.png
I just didn't have anything to say on the Undertale rally. sorry if I let you down.
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add the c and back away
iphonesience
and I'm not "pouty" at all - I hope Undertale wins this
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add the c and back away
iphonesience
Undertale does actually need to start something soon if it wants to win this. At max capacity, it was getting around 350 votes in an update, which is only going to shave off like 75 votes per update off the lead assuming small Pokemon backlash. That's gonna take 8 hours to do at the current lead. It's running out of time.
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http://i.imgur.com/RHvCiY3.png
Pokemon most likely has this. we've traded one monster for a scarier one.
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add the c and back away
iphonesience
one monster for a pocket one
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http://i.imgur.com/M1heX2g.jpg
RIP Paul Bearer. Ohhhh nooooo. :(
seeing as my guru bracket is apparently invincible, you should all brace yourselves for the following results for the rest of the contest

OoT > SotN
LttP > MM
RE4 > SMRPG
MGS > MGS3

Melee > FFVII
Pokemon > Mario 64
OoT > LttP
RE4 > MGS

Melee > Pokemon
OoT > RE4

OoT > Melee


adjust your oracle predictions accordingly
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http://i.imgur.com/RHvCiY3.png
The Mana Sword posted...

RE4 > SMRPG


nope.jpg
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http://i.imgur.com/M1heX2g.jpg
RIP Paul Bearer. Ohhhh nooooo. :(
if you win the guru we should just all boycott the sig bet
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add the c and back away
iphonesience
I'll make everyone nominate toadette again
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http://i.imgur.com/RHvCiY3.png
just choose Link
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add the c and back away
iphonesience
that crossed my mind the year I almost did win it

too bad that's not actually going to happen this time
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http://i.imgur.com/RHvCiY3.png
The Mana Sword posted...
seeing as my guru bracket is apparently invincible, you should all brace yourselves for the following results for the rest of the contest

OoT > SotN
LttP > MM
RE4 > SMRPG
MGS > MGS3

Melee > FFVII
Pokemon > Mario 64
OoT > LttP
RE4 > MGS

Melee > Pokemon
OoT > RE4

OoT > Melee


adjust your oracle predictions accordingly


Interesting, it's very similar to mine. I could see one of our brackets killing each other later on.

Only major difference is that I have SM64 getting to the finals.
(edited 12/8/2015 10:52:04 AM)reportquote
Lopen gear is always (mostly) here to provide a differing perspective when needed

You were all fools to doubt Pokemon in a debatable match.

In either case, we head down the darkest tiimeline today. Either Undertale proves to be truly unbeatable, and starts pulling out hundred vote cuts out of its ass, somehow, when Pokemon has been resisting it pretty well. Or Pokemon evolves and itself becomes unbeatable.

My money is on Pokemon, and lemme tell ya there ain't no winner here.
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
looks like my reverse jinx of picking Pokemon to the finals is still looking 'great'

also I put plenty of effort into every other writeup and nobody's ever like 'man I appreciate how great of a job you do'

I take one writeup off and lurkers crawl out of the woodwork and are like 'what's wrong with you man'
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http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif
Now Leonhart let us not forget post #106

Bless post #106. What a great reader. Unless of course you assume, since he posted it after my write-up, that he was praising esteemed guest writer Lopen gear. Fair assumption, but I'm willing to share praise with the entire crew here.
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
LeonhartFour posted...
looks like my reverse jinx of picking Pokemon to the finals is still looking 'great'

also I put plenty of effort into every other writeup and nobody's ever like 'man I appreciate how great of a job you do'

I take one writeup off and lurkers crawl out of the woodwork and are like 'what's wrong with you man'


Well I wouldn't even bother if your write-ups weren't interesting in the first place.

That's the perk of having fans, they get to call you call you out when you slip.
aaloaps posted...
and i hope pokemon wins and almost always vote against what Leon votes for (casual gamer vs real gamer taste maybe lol)


yes indeed bless you post 106

seriously though I did actually not see that post earlier so thanks
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http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif
Mr Lasastryke posted...
(mind you that these same guys were bashing LMS for not writing an extensive analysis on the SMW - Animal Crossing match)


Also this is a little different. Guests don't get to write up every match, and there are people who enjoy signing up for them. Tranny and I taking a day off isn't robbing someone else from being able to put in an analysis.
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http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif
I was totally fine with those write-ups! They said all they needed to, IMO!
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
12/8/2015 12:36:35 PM#150
Can't believe I'm getting points in my bracket today after all this
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http://myanimelist.net/profile/angryaria
<Die the death>! <Sentence to death>! <Great equalizer is the death>!!

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