GameFAQs Contests
Best. Game. Ever. Contest Analysis Crew - Part 5
is it time to revise my FFVII prediction now that everyone is panicking that Remake is episodic --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
Division 2: Round 4 - Match 114 – (1) Final Fantasy VI vs. (2) Final Fantasy VII Moltar’s Analysis Final Fantasy VI Round 1 - 77.03% vs Assassin's Creed II Round 2 - 66.94% vs Paper Mario: The Thousand-Year Door Round 3 - 53.75% vs The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker Final Fantasy VII Round 1 - 84.07% vs Journey Round 2 - 78.21% vs Halo Round 3 - 65.29% vs Super Smash Bros. for Wii U http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/5728 Take that recent poll, then factor in that SNES games have looked great so far, and then also factor in that we're now late enough in the contest where wonky things start happening. One can see that FF6 has a very real shot and winning here, which would have been considered unthinkable years ago. FF6 hasn't looked as impressive as CT, especially last round where it almost lost to Wind Waker. Still, it's not like FF7 looked great in Round 3 either, failing to double Smash 4, which struggled against ME (and MGS3 was able to 60-40 ME2). Still, I'm going to say that FF7 should still be considered the favorite here. Contest-wise, it hasn't lost to any other FF games in a direct match-up. That non-contest poll also only has half the votes of a normal contest poll, and it is very likely that contest voters and new voters will swing the pendulum back in FF7's corner. FF7 is also very relevant right now with all the remake hype going on, including a new trailer than just dropped yesterday. We've seen hype boost characters and games moreso than actual releases, so FF7 should be able to ride that high. Moltar’s Bracket: Final Fantasy VII Moltar’s Prediction: Final Fantasy VII - 53% Transience’s Analysis Okay, so, I have FF6 in my bracket. Until yesterday's FF7 bombshell, I pushed against the tide here. FF6's performances have been great and 54% on Wind Waker, though disappointing in the face of SNESfaqs, is still about equivalent to FF7 getting 65% on Smash 4, a Wii U game that only pulled 55% on Mass Effect 1. Looking at today's ME2 match, that looks worse and worse. FF6/FF7 is a unique matchup. In a lot of ways it's not about strength. This is one of those all-time arguments among fans. These two games are the two games that people all over the internet still talk about today. FF7 is the face of the franchise amongst casuals but FF6 is the one that True Fans seem to back. In some ways, it feels like FF7 vs. all other Final Fantasy games. I had a theory pre-contest that games like FF7 and Ocarina would come back to the pack a little bit due to the shrinking of vote totals. We've been reduced to core fans who have played a lot of video games and FF7 doesn't resonate quite as loudly to them. It's the major reason why Chrono Trigger has become such a monster. FF6 is like baby Chrono Trigger. FF6 beat FF7 in a site poll a few months ago and I don't think it was a fluke. Now, our vote totals have increased in recent days and that FF7 trailer yesterday knocked the whole internet on their ass. It's hard to come up with an argument for FF6 after that thing. I'm going to back it stubbornly though. If the internet catches wind of this match, I could see FF6 rising up and doing the unthinkable. Also, if CT/Melee turns into a rally fight - and both games have shown that they're willing to go there - then that will back up FF6. Let's see if FF6 can scare FF7 here. transience's prediction: Final Fantasy VI with 50.05% --- Moltar Status: hype Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
Leonhart’s Analysis I know everyone is going to point this out, but Final Fantasy VII had a brand new Remake trailer come out yesterday. Not sure how huge of a deal it really is. Will it be enough to swing a Final Fantasy VI victory over to a Final Fantasy VII victory? I dunno. I kinda doubt it. I’ve always favored Final Fantasy VII here. The only thing that really points to FFVI winning is that one POTD. I don’t feel like anything we’ve seen has really changed anyone’s mind on this match. If you liked FFVI beforehand, you haven’t seen much to dissuade you from that. If you liked FFVII beforehand, it’s done enough to make you think it’s still the stronger game. I think FFVI will hold up better than I originally expected, but I’m still rolling with FFVII. This isn’t some piddly POTD anymore. This is a real GameFAQs Contest match, so I think I speak for every FFVII fan when I say… Let’s mosey. Leonhart’s Vote: Final Fantasy VII Leonhart’s Prediction: Final Fantasy VII with 53.45% Kleenex’s Analysis Now this is a match actually worth talking about. Both games have looked pretty good so far and ther- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2UWcBhdYlow Oh. Final Fantasy VII with 57% --- Moltar Status: hype Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
Guest’s Analysis - Magmortar Back when the bracket came out I picked FF7 without thinking here and to this day I don't see any reason to go against it. I mean yeah there was that poll where FF6 actually beat the game but that got half the vote totals our current matches are getting. The votals are only getting higher as the contest goes on. We're up like 10k from most round 1 matches in this round. FF6 and FF7 both looked pretty good in Rounds 1 and 2. FF6 nearly doubled a Mario RPG and demolished Assassin's Creed (which once got 40% on Wind Waker!), FF7 got a good blowout on Journey and gave Halo its worst beatdown ever. After round 3 they both came back to Earth after FF6 struggled to put away Wind Waker and FF7 got 65% on a Wii U game (which is never good, yes the Wii U game is Smash Bros. but whatever, Wii U games can't score 40% on Red Dead Redemption and get doubled by Fire Emblem). Onto the actual match at hand! FF6 has the advantage of being Not FF7. FF7 is whether you like it or not, the public face of FF7 and Final Fantasy fans fed up with that game will flock to 6 at any opportunity. It's also on the SNES which is a terrifying console to bet against this contest. The other more old-schoolish FF games (4 and 9) have also looked solid this contest, 9 in particular snagging a couple of neat debated matches before scoring a great number on OoT. We think. FF10 I'd think shares more fans with 7 than it does 6 and that game has looked like garbage (although I think it was just it finally get exposed, I didn't think it'd be to THIS degree). FF7 is the one everyone knows, the one with the much more impressive contest history (lead LTTP early on? Try beating OoT; beating a bunch of SNES games? Try smacking down Mario 64 and Chrono Trigger), it's the game that practically made the site and is the number one reason this site is such a Squarefest. It gets antivotes sure but against real competition, the fans for the game always come out to dig it out. It's got remake hype. This is even the first time it can really take advantage of newfound Smash Bros. support. FF6 to me, just hasn't ever been as strong as it really should be to contend with this. There is no way I see FF7 put up only 54% on Wind Waker, and I doubt FF6 does as "good" on Smash as FF7 did. It ultimately comes down to who comes out to vote. Casual Square fans and the average gamer in general are probably going to stick to FF7, the megahit with more hype behind it than ever, and that's not counting the game's own hardcore fans. Hardcore Square fans have a much higher chance of flocking to 6, so can more savvy people who just don't want to see 7 win. Also, if there's a rally, I feel 6 will get a lot more out of it because everyone knows 7 is the one that always wins and therefore think 6 winning is the result that would piss us off. Or something like that. I guess a weird rSFF/SNESFAQs result is possible, but I'm not picking it...this round, anyway. Simply put, FF7 has done more, it's always done more, the voting group I mentioned for it will outnumber 6's group and it has reasons for me to back it FF6 just doesn't have. Magmortar's Prediction FF7 - 56% Crew Consensus: Why was 6 afraid of 7? Because 7 --- Moltar Status: hype Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
Master Moltar posted... FF7 is whether you like it or not, the public face of FF7 damn i never thought of it like that --- Remember, we are eternal - all this pain is an illusion http://i.imgur.com/Qs9x1gS.png |
Master Moltar posted... Oh, and there's a potential rally for Melee, too, but if it's big enough for it to actually beat Chrono Trigger, then the rest of the bracket is at risk. You wouldn't want that, now do you, potential rallier? Why don't people listen to me :, ( --- Video game companies don't care about you, so stop kissing their asses |
MechanicalWall posted... Master Moltar posted...Oh, and there's a potential rally for Melee, too, but if it's big enough for it to actually beat Chrono Trigger, then the rest of the bracket is at risk. You wouldn't want that, now do you, potential rallier? I've got Melee winning the contest, so I'm quite pleased with this result. --- Currently playing: Axiom Verge |
transience posted... anyone feel like updating the scoreboard? Sure, I'll do it. Give me a minute. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
Super Mario RPG: Legend of the Seven Stars 60.74% 25385 Chrono Cross 39.26% 16405 TOTAL VOTES 41790 Metal Gear Solid 2: Sons of Liberty 45.56% 18947 Resident Evil 4 54.44% 22643 TOTAL VOTES 41590 Metal Gear Solid 53.56% 22220 Shadow of the Colossus 46.44% 19264 TOTAL VOTES 41484 Metal Gear Solid 3: Snake Eater 60.64% 24963 Mass Effect 239.36% 16200 TOTAL VOTES 41163 Crew Predictions: 105/112 What Happened: SMRPG uses AMERICA to 60/40 CC while RE4 struggles a bit with MGS2. SOTC does SOTC things to MGS again, and MGS3 puts up the surprise performance of the round after putting up the turd performance of last round. What Will Happen: Both matches look like tossups at this point. Crew Prediction Challenge: Guest misses on SOTC and ME2, tran misses on ME2, points for everyone else Leonhart: 104 Moltar: 104 Guest: 100 Kleenex: 100 transience: 98 Crew Accuracy Challenge: Leonhart gets SMRPG, Moltar gets RE4, Moltar and Kleenex split MGS1, Kleenex gets MGS3 Leonhart: 25 Moltar: 22.5 Kleenex: 21 transience: 20.5 Guest: 18 --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
Division 3: Round 4 - Match 115 – (8) Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow/Green Version vs. (6) Undertale Moltar’s Analysis Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow/Green Version Round 1 - 68.34% vs Tetris Round 2 - 62.67% vs Super Mario Bros. 3 Round 3 - 78.04% vs Sonic the Hedgehog 2 Undertale Round 1 - 50.95% vs Mass Effect 3 Round 2 - 55.74% vs Fallout 3 Round 3 - 54.84% vs Super Mario World There are two timelines: Timeline A: The norm, the trend, a repeat of Rounds 2 and 3. Undertale fans are more prepared and growing in number. Pokemon will start out strong, but the rallies will gain traction throughout the day and Undertale will end up taking the lead at some point and not looking back. Timeline B: The change. Undertale fans do their rallying, but as word spreads across tumblr, they notice that it's against Pokemon, and tumblr loves it some Pokemon. There are more Pokemon fans on tumblr than Undertale, so if they catch wind of the rallies, then they can counter-rally for Pokemon. The combined strength of Pokemon's natural GameFAQs strength and its own outside site rallying defeats Undertale. I'm going to play it safe and bet on a threepeat for Undertale since those fans are guaranteed to show up, but if Pokemon fans take notice, this match will get much more interesting. This match won't be decided by GameFAQs, it'll be who can get more outside fans to vote, period. I feel this is also the last realistic chance of Undertale losing in this contest. Nothing else will be able to stop the momentum if it can get past Pokemon. Not Melee, not FF, not even Zelda. Choose your fate. Moltar’s Bracket: Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow Moltar’s Prediction: Undertale - 51% Transience’s Analysis undertale wins transience's prediction: Undertale with 52.45% Leonhart’s Analysis Meh. Leonhart’s Vote: Who cares Leonhart’s Prediction: Undertale with 60.60% Kleenex’s Analysis A lot of people have been doing a lot of mental gymnastics in an attempt to convince themselves that Pokemon has a shot here and doesn’t get rolled by Undertale. That’s fine, I suppose, but they’re wrong. Undertale will win, same as it has every match before, and those same people will continue to be shocked when it does it again next round. There’s not much else to say here, so instead I’d like to take some time to eulogize Chrono Trigger, and contests in general. Chrono Trigger has had such a tumultuous history in these things. From Crono’s huge breakout in the very first Character Battle to the low lows of breaking the Noble Nine in every which way possible, calling its run up and down would be an understatement. Always the bridesmaid, never the bride, the game has managed to plug along and still remains one of the site’s favorite games 20 years later. This year, Chrono Trigger seemed poised to make good on all those promises it had made years back. The game looked like a legitimate threat to win the whole contest this year, and to have that possibility snatched away on the back of Yet Another Rally is almost poetic in a really tragic way. I truly believe Chrono Trigger would have had at least even odds of beating Ocarina this year, but as in the case in the game as well as its contest history, the future refused to change. --- Moltar Status: hype Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
As
far as contests in general, it’s no secret that the landscape of these
things has changed. The sharp decline in site interest and the
increased accessibility of social media has made the way these things
play out completely different, for better or worse. Unfortunately, it’s
not the same structure that myself and most of the stats-type people
fell in love with. These things are the reason I’m still posting on
this board 10 years later, and I imagine that’s true of a lot of us.
Analysing and predicting the contest was the real draw - I do
statistical analysis as my day job, even! - and the way these past years
have morphed make it impossible to do with any kind of accuracy. You
need to have some kind of stability, otherwise it becomes random chance
and there’s no point in analyzing because there’s no correlation to
anything in particular. Before anyone accuses me of being too whiny, I
want to say - that’s fine! There’s actually nothing wrong with what’s
happening here. It’s within the rules and it was an inevitability as
people have gained easier access to larger internet audiences. This
nonsense is even keeping my undead husk of a bracket still alive in the
Guru contest for some ungodly reason! I just hate how divided and
hostile people can get when someone is on the other side of the fence as
them. If you like what’s happening here, that’s okay! And if you
don’t, that’s fine too! Contests are the only reason most of us ended
up here in the first place, so don’t tear each other up over them. Undertale with 55% --- Moltar Status: hype Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
Guest’s Analysis - Scarlettail Welp, this is it. The match between two games that let you both befriend and hurt monsters that could decide the winner of this contest. In one corner, we have Pokemon RBY, which has completely blown away its competition so far. It has partially benefited from Undertale's rallies, but the game is clearly powerful and has its sights set on the finals. It probably would've beaten Super Mario Bros 3 without help from rallies. It blew Sonic 2 away last round in an impressive show, again whether it received a lot of rally votes or not. In the other corner, it's Undertale. It has already come back from huge defects 3 times, most recently putting away Mario World. The game has clearly gained strength with each round, and I expect it to come into this match even stronger. I feel more GameFAQers will side with Undertale this time than before, especially because it's against Pokemon. Predicting the outcome here is tough because there's so much going on, but I think, in almost every way, Undertale has a distinct advantage. Too many things need to go right for Pokemon to succeed. Will Undertale be rallied? Yes, probably more than ever. Will Pokemon be rallied? Maybe. Right now, I'm seeing Melee rally against Chrono Trigger, and it's only barely doing the job. If Pokemon's rallies are anything like Melee's, it won't win. Undertale would do the job far better than Melee has. Will Undertale voters side with Pokemon instead? I doubt it. They're here to vote for Undertale, not the opposition. All of the votes Pokemon got last round or before don't matter here when it faces the source of the rallies. Regardless of what happens, this match might be an ugly classic. Expect lots of chaos, fiery commentary, and an overall explosive situation. This match is decisive and will set the tone for the rest of the contest. I predict that Undertale will win, this time with an even bigger margin than ever as it exceeds expectations and puts away any doubt to its trip to the finals. It will hold on like it did against Mario World, this time closer than before, and then surge later in the day. Maybe it'll be closer if Pokemon rallies, but I feel these rallies will fall short. They are simply not as prepared as the Undertale rallies. Pokemon blacks out as Undertale's determination is too much. Scarlettail's Prediction: Undertale 57.68% Crew Consensus: muh determination --- Moltar Status: hype Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
Master Moltar posted... Transience’s Analysis If you guys hate those contests so much, you could refrain from signing up for the crew in the next one so people who actually like the contests can do it. |
an
essential part of being on the crew is figuring out how to stretch a
one sentence analysis into multiple paragraphs without actually saying
anything --- http://i.imgur.com/RHvCiY3.png |
th3l3fty posted... here, let me summarize moltar's analysis for you: There was more content than that. So your tactic for complaining about rallies is downplaying the effort of the people who actually care? You don't need to go that low. |
The Mana Sword posted... an essential part of being on the crew is figuring out how to stretch a one sentence analysis into multiple paragraphs without actually saying anything I am generally an expert at that, but after the mess with Melee today, I had no motivation to pretend to care about R/B/Y vs. Undertale. Pretty sure transience was the same way. Stuff like Undertale is boring. There's nothing meaningful to say because there are no numbers to crunch, no performances to compare them with. if you want to twist that into "I hate contests" then sure whatever --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
Lopen's unsolicited guest analysis: If you actually believe that Undertale is mostly an actual rally, Pokemon has a good chance of winning the match here. I don't, cause you know, tinfoil, but for the purposes of this write-up let's be optimist and assume Undertale's votes are completely legitimate. You see who else has been getting the votes in overwhelming numbers as runoff from the Undertale rallies? Pokemon games. So really, a lot of Undertale voters, if they are indeed voters, tend to like Pokemon a lot. Pokemon also is probably beating Undertale like 80-20 among voters from our site, so I mean... if it can get say 25% of the rallied votes, with that split, yeah, it probably wins, considering the ratio of additional votes to GameFAQs votes in Undertale matches. I mean, tinfoil aside-- while I don't think Undertale is fully rally, it is definitely at least part rally, so I do think that Pokemon getting 25% of the extra votes, is possible even if there is something bogus going on there. This is all assuming the "rallied" votes aren't functionally limitless, which they very well could be. And let's face it, if anyone is going to be THAT PLUCKY UNDERDOG, it's Pokemanz. Lopen's prediction: Pokemanz RBYG with 54.20% --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
Lopen posted... And let's face it, if anyone is going to be THAT PLUCKY UNDERDOG, it's Pokemanz. too late Zelda and Melee have already stolen the plucky underdog mantle away --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
Pokefear posted... *ascends to mountaintop* im liking everything about this post --- Moltar Status: hype Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
I'm honestly kinda surprised Pokemon isn't getting any support here. Like i seem kinda alone in thinking Undertale's rallying isn't actually rallying (today's rallying of Smash is for the most part actual rallying-- cause extra votes are actually natural looking in their distribution, frequency, and sustainability) but if you think it's entirely or even mostly actual rallying, Pokemon is definitely the silver bullet to defeat it. Way the hell more popular on GameFAQs audience, has a following among the rally audience, and can itself be rallied as well. Maybe you're just trying to jinx it, or maybe you all secretly know I'm right and Undertale isn't really getting rallied for most of those votes at all, but don't wanna look like some sorta crazy person, but in an actual rally situation Pokemon should be the favorite here I think. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
maybe if I liked Pokemon at all I could muster some enthusiasm or hope for it but I don't I mean Pokemon winning would be good for my bracket but I don't care about that too much --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
