GameFAQs Contests
Best. Game. Ever. Contest Analysis Crew - Part 5
Hey everyone! Welcome to the Best. Game. Ever. Contest Analysis Crew topic! EPISODE 4: Trigger Warning Starring - Punished "Master" Moltar Benedict Transience Revolver Leonhart Dr. Kleenex Guest Starring - Guest Face http://i.imgur.com/MHfPt7x.gif Featured Writer - Lopen Gear Current Guest List - send write-ups to mastermoltar@gmail.com Super Mario RPG vs Chrono Cross - Tsunami Metal Gear Solid 2: Sons of Liberty vs Resident Evil 4 - LMS Metal Gear Solid vs Shadow of the Colossus - MechanicalWall Metal Gear Solid 3: Snake Eater vs Mass Effect 2 - Janus5k --- Moltar Status: hype Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
Division 7: Round 3 - Match 109 – (9) Super Mario RPG: Legend of the Seven Stars vs. (13) Chrono Cross Moltar’s Analysis Super Mario RPG: Legend of the Seven Stars Round 1 - 54.43% vs The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion Round 2 - 57.20% vs Grand Theft Auto V Chrono Cross Round 1 - 58.06% vs World of Warcraft Round 2 - 54.82% vs Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas One of these games getting to Round 4 just seems weird. SMRPG seems like the favorite here since beating Oblivion is the most impressive thing either of these games has done. Between Morrowind’s and Skyrim’s performances on Metroid Prime, if Oblivion falls in between those two as we’d expect, this means SMRPG is decently strong. I could also buy GTAV being decent since it's the new GTA hotness that hasn't fallen off a cliff yet. WoW I don’t buy being all that strong, and Chrono Cross didn’t knock it out the park there. GTASA could be decent, but I don’t think it’s as strong as its brethren Vice City and V for…certain reasons. Of course, those are all guesses and CC could end up rolling through this match, but it seems more likely that SMRPG won’t have any problem beating it, potentially by more than its previous opponents too. Moltar’s Bracket: Super Mario RPG Moltar’s Prediction: Super Mario RPG – 59% Transience’s Analysis I don't know how others feel, but I think this match is totally unpredictable. I know that the expectation is that SMRPG wins pretty easily and I generally agree. But I also would have pegged GTA San Andreas below 5 and that match is going to need to be awfully close for that to be the case if SMRPG wins. There's also the fact that Chrono Trigger has been the MVP of the contest. Does that mean that CC is more legit than we would expect, or does it support fellow SNESer Mario RPG? Also, we're looking at two games that never came out in Europe. Normally this is SMRPG's achilles heel but maybe it does better here? Or maybe CC still edges it out since it's always had a better Europe vote than SMRPG? I just don't know what happens here. I would sure love to see CC stand up as that would probably point to the Chrono series just going bonkers this year -- but I, and no one else on the crew, will actually endorse that. But maybe it's close? Or maybe this is a massive blowout now that CC is facing a game that's not looked down on? CC's faced two hate magnets in Warcraft and GTA. That said, Vice City stood up to FF8 pretty well. Maybe CC is equivalent to FF8? What am I even thinking AHHHH transience's prediction: Super Mario RPG with uhhh 52.55% --- Moltar Status: hype Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
Leonhart’s Analysis Man, a 9 seed and a 13 seed meeting in round three! This is what December Disorder is all about, or something like that! And just like how there’s nothing more American than good old-fashioned college sports, this will be the most American match of the contest! You know, since neither game was released in Europe and all. And truly, that will be Super Mario RPG’s decisive advantage here. The thing that enabled Oblivion and Grand Theft Auto V to put up respectable numbers was the huge disparity it had in the Euro vote, and Chrono Cross will not be able to exploit that. SMRPG’s numbers in America and Canada were much, much higher than its overall percentage. Because of this, I’m actually predicting Super Mario RPG will beat Chrono Cross worse than GTAV or Oblivion! This will be its true power on display here! This game could’ve been a top ten game on this site if it were ever released in Europe! So score one for America, the land of the Nintendo/Square JRPG collaboration and the home of hating indirect sequels that ruin everything about the original! I might even grill out some hamburgers and hot dogs while listening to “Real American” on full blast the entire match! Leonhart’s Vote: Super Mario RPG (FOR AMERICA) Leonhart’s Prediction: Super Mario RPG with 60.05% (ALL HAIL AMERICA) Kleenex’s Analysis I’m super psyched that Chrono Cross managed to make it this far, but unfortunately it’s pretty much dead in the water here. The only way it has any kind of shot here is if San Andreas is noticeably stronger than GTAV, and I don’t really see it. SNES games keep impressing round after round, and there’s no reason Mario RPG shouldn’t follow suit. The beginning of this match should be pretty rough for CC given Mario RPG’s joke-like trends, but it should come back down and end up looking reasonable. In the back of my mind I’m still holding on for the miracle to happen, but I’ll be satisfied with a close loss. Super Mario RPG with 53% --- Moltar Status: hype Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
Guest’s Analysis - Tsunami Oh, hey, I’m here two days in a row! Only problem is, only the guest sign-ups that have already happened when a new Crew topic goes up are listed in the topic and this topic started during Round 2, so while I remember that I signed up for a Division VII match, I can’t remember which one! So I’m just going to analyze both matches and let Moltar put whichever one I was supposed to do up there. So we’ve got a SNES RPG and a PS1 RPG, and they’re both made by Square. Oh and one of them is a Chrono game. Sounds like an interesting match! …Or at least it will be in two rounds. Is this even an SFF match? I want to say it should be because I’d assume most people who played Chrono Cross played Chrono Trigger first, but then again Chrono Trigger was ported to the PS1 as well so there doesn’t necessarily need to be SNES overlap there. That said, actually coming up with a percentage is tricky business. Both were up against GTA games last round, and while we’ve generally been assuming that older=better, is there really a reason to think that San Andreas is stronger than GTA V? If anything I’d figure that based on the seeding, GTA V should be stronger…oh, right, professional review scores factor into it, which gives GTA V a seeding advantage because it apparently got rave reviews. Still, you almost have to set GTA V > GTA:SA because setting them equal, let alone making SA the stronger one, produces CC > Oblivion, and after seeing Skyrim beat Metroid Prime I have trouble believing that Oblivion couldn’t even beat Chrono Cross. Unfortunately that leaves us with a very narrow window unless we want to believe that GTA V itself could beat Chrono Cross! Super Mario RPG with 55.95% Crew Consensus: Mario > Chrono --- Moltar Status: hype Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
DpObliVion posted... This match is making me nervous. SMRPG should be fine, but still. Never doubt AMERICA SMRPG's case is watertight. never you mind that Super Metroid is winning America and still losing the match today --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
you
know I don't really care for metroid that much, but both games going
out within two days of each other in the exact same fashion is making me
feel bad for metroid fans --- http://i.imgur.com/RHvCiY3.png |
weird, my favorite game (remaining) in the contest is 70-30ing today! --- http://i.imgur.com/RHvCiY3.png |
Division 7: Round 3 - Match 110 – (6) Metal Gear Solid 2 vs. (2) Resident Evil 4 Moltar’s Analysis Metal Gear Solid 2: Sons of Liberty Round 1 - 56.76% vs Resident Evil Round 2 - 54.21% vs The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt Resident Evil 4 Round 1 - 58.87% vs Paper Mario Round 2 - 58.11% vs Fallout: New Vegas can i pick neither or should i save that for mgs3/me2 Both games haven’t impressed at all so far in this contest. RE4 should take this since historically it has been the stronger game, but MGS2 putting up a fight would be the first good performance from MGS in this entire contest. On the other hand, if RE4 goes big here, that would mean it’s still really strong and Paper Mario and New Vegas are up there too, which does not compute. brain hurt Moltar’s Bracket: Resident Evil 4 Moltar’s Prediction: Resident Evil 4 – 55% Transience’s Analysis RE4 wins unless something crazy happens here. RE4 beat MGS3 once upon a time and 2 is the weak link of those first three games. MGS just hasn't looked that great and RE4, while not looking *spectacular*, still hasn't been threatened. MGS2 almost lost legitimately to Resident Evil and Witcher 3. That's a different level than Paper Mario and, uh, Fallout New Vegas. Or maybe it isn't? I don't know. I just know that I trust RE4 a little bit more than I trust MGS2. That game is the game that started the SOTC run that's paralyzing some people into thinking it's going to win division 8 even though it's not that strong. I'm mostly using this match to gauge the MGS series. MGS1 still feels like the consensus favourite but if RE4 goes 60%+ here? Maybe we need to readjust our thinking. The same goes for MGS3/ME2. That match is still baffling me and I'm taking as long as possible to come to a decision. transience's prediction: Resident Evil 4 with 55.11% Leonhart’s Analysis Now time for a much less American match. I suppose one of the good things about this match is that we can possibly get a decent idea of how strong MGS2 is compared to its brethren. MGS3 has proven to be slightly weaker in previous contests. The relationship between MGS2, 3, and 4 got obscured somewhat by Shadow of the Colossus’s Cinderella run in GOTD. Of course, MGS looks weaker in general this year, so this match may not tell us much, but I’ll certainly take it as proof that MGS3 would crush MGS2 if RE4 posts a decisive victory here! Seriously though, I’m not sure what a good performance here is for RE4. MGS2 wasn’t that impressive against a 2015 game in Witcher 3. Is it weaker than New Vegas or Paper Mario? I honestly have no idea. In previous years, I’d have thought so, but this year, who knows. They’re probably all pretty close. I’d find it amusing if New Vegas ended up #2 in the stats in this division because I’m pretty sure no one would have predicted that before the contest began. Leonhart’s Vote: Metal Gear Solid 2 Leonhart’s Prediction: Resident Evil 4 with 57.95% --- Moltar Status: hype Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
Kleenex’s Analysis With Metal Gear disappointing left and right, this match doesn’t have the same appeal it might have had pre-contest. It’s all but assured Resident Evil will walk away from this unscathed and MGS2 will, once again, look like garbage. I think the game got pretty lucky The Witcher ended up being weaker than expected, because it looked like garbage against RE1 in the first round. 57% on the original Resident Evil is extremely underwhelming, and RE4 is going to put the game in its place. I still call RE4’s true strength into question too, for what it’s worth, but that’s a discussion for another round against a tougher opponent. Resident Evil 4 with 60% Guest’s Analysis - LinkMarioSamus With how badly MGS stuff has been doing this contest and RE4 beating MGS3 and giving just-released MGS4 a close match back in '09, the series' (former?) red-headed stepchild is most certainly not in the running for victory. It more or less coasted by on name recognition against a game that many say has aged poorly in the original Resident Evil (REmake notwithstanding) and an acclaimed but very new title in The Witcher 3. Neither of these wins were very convincing at all, so MGS2 may be in for a world of hurt. Problem is, it's not like RE4 has exactly lit the world on fire this contest either, getting only 59% on Paper Mario and Fallout: New Vegas, in a contest where the former's sequel barely skid past a Tales of game and Fallout 3 got Undertale'd. In perhaps similar fashion to Game of the Decade, MGS2 has probably been the best-looking MGS game all contest, but that may be because we barely put any expectations on it to begin with. In the end I'll simply settle for the average of RE4's number on Paper Mario, RE4's number on New Vegas, and MGS2's result on RE1. Here goes: Prediction: Resident Evil 4 with 57.91% Crew Consensus: RE gets REvenge against MGS2 --- Moltar Status: hype Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
looks like even I underestimated the power of the hotblooded American spirit --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
mario rpg literal joke game. it should come down a bit but is anyone considering smrpg > re4 at this point? --- http://i.imgur.com/RHvCiY3.png |
For once no one says anything about my analysis. I guess because it actually looked like an analysis. Lol the first one I wrote was "Get ready for the blowout of the contest!" because I thought nothing else needed to be said. And then "These are dark times for the souls that reside in all of civilization" oh my. --- "Nothing I could do!" -Darksydephil |
SNESboost feels good --- http://myanimelist.net/profile/angryaria <Die the death>! <Sentence to death>! <Great equalizer is the death>!! |
Wait dkc2 lost? Oh god I didn't check for most of the day and just assumed it would edge by --- http://myanimelist.net/profile/angryaria <Die the death>! <Sentence to death>! <Great equalizer is the death>!! |
The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time 64.96% 33070 Final Fantasy IX 35.04% 17842 TOTAL VOTES 50912 Donkey Kong Country 2: Diddy's Kong Quest 37.97% 18672 Castlevania: Symphony of the Night 62.03% 30499 TOTAL VOTES 49171 The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past 70.58% 34675 Dark Souls 29.42% 14456 TOTAL VOTES 49131 Super Metroid 49.47% 24054 The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask 50.53% 24574 TOTAL VOTES 48628 Crew Predictions: 101/108 What Happened: FF9 gives Ocarina a fight and makes people question its top billing a little. SOTN goes to town on DKC2 and has a good measuring stick match against OOT next round. LTTP does as expected. Super Metroid puts up the fight of the contest before finally succumbing to the day vote against our GOTD. What Will Happen: Ocarina/LTTP collision course incoming Crew Prediction Challenge: points Leonhart: 100 Moltar: 100 Guest: 98 Kleenex: 96 transience: 96 Crew Accuracy Challenge: Leon gets Majora and Ocarina, Guest gets Zelda and Moltar gets SOTN Leonhart: 24 Moltar: 21 transience: 20.5 Kleenex: 19.5 Guest: 18 --- xyzzy |
Man what the heck, I guess I really didn't checkk again after the morning when it was 50/50 Rip --- http://myanimelist.net/profile/angryaria <Die the death>! <Sentence to death>! <Great equalizer is the death>!! |
R4 guest topic http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/72940733 --- Moltar Status: hype Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
Division 8: Round 3 - Match 111 – (1) Metal Gear Solid vs. (5) Shadow of the Colossus Moltar’s Analysis Metal Gear Solid Round 1 - 79.07% vs Splatoon Round 2 - 60.34% vs EarthBound Shadow of the Colossus Round 1 - 72.69% vs Team Fortress 2 Round 2 - 59.23% vs Red Dead Redemption 2, 3, 4, and now 1, SotC almost has the whole MGS collection! This match was set up because of SotC almost running the MGS gauntlet back in 2010. There, it benefitted from rallying and being an underdog in those matches. Even then, it still fell short against MGS3 in the end. Now it doesn't have that momentum, and it gets to go up against what should be the strongest MGS game in the series. Not looking good for another cinderella upset here, especially with it failing to get 60% on RDR while MGS did that on Earthbound (an old game!!!). SotC should do well, especially with MGS games not really performing all that great in general, but MGS is the clear favorite here. Moltar’s Bracket: Metal Gear Solid Moltar’s Prediction: Metal Gear Solid - 54% Transience’s Analysis This match got some hype after round 1, and after SOTC scared the hell out of the MGS series in GOTD. I don't have any fear after r2 though. SOTC could only manage 60% on RDR which could only get 60% on Bayo2. That's a really weak game. I would take Earthbound over RDR in this environment every day of the week. I also think that SOTC's 2010 run is a one-time thing. SOTC looks to be about equivalent to Okami which isn't bad, but MGS should be like FF9 than Okami. And FF9 put away SOTC with ease. transience's prediction: Metal Gear Solid with 56.66% Leonhart’s Analysis Shadow of the Colossus has some unfinished business. It knocked off MGS2 and MGS4, but it came up just a bit short against MGS3. Now it’s time to face the original. MGS as a whole has yet to put up a truly great performance and has even put up a few clunkers, but MGS2 currently has nearly 45% on RE4 as I’m writing this. I don’t know what to make of this series anymore. The only thing I’m really sure of is that MGS1 is still the top dog. By how much, I don’t know, but I’d wager enough that Shadow of the Colossus won’t really threaten it. Metal Gear Solid did better on EarthBound than SOTC did on Red Dead Redemption, and with the way things have been going, I’d take EarthBound > RDR. I don’t think MGS1 blows it away or anything because SOTC has legit strength. There’s no denying that at this point. This will simply be an Ulti-style utter destruction that isn’t all that impressive but the end result is never in doubt. Leonhart’s Vote: Metal Gear Solid Leonhart’s Prediction: Metal Gear Solid with 57.15% Kleenex’s Analysis Shadow of the Colossus's miracle run last games contest was one of the best things about it. It faces the strongest Metal Gear first this time, but even though the MGS series has looked consistently bad, I don't think SotC can go on another run this time. I'll be close but the miracle never happen. Metal Gear Solid with 54% --- Moltar Status: hype Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
Guest’s Analysis - MechanicalWall How nice of Allen to set up a Division where Shadow of the Colossus could finally finish the MGS guantlet by taking on the one game it couldn't get to in GotD (let's assume it smashes MGSV, because how couldn't it?). And while I could write on and on about this match, I feel it really only boils down to a couple of factors. First, the two games both had 59-60% on their opponents last round, so you could just make the case that whichever took on the stronger opponent will be the winner here. And while RDR vs. Earthbound is a match worthy of its own complete write-up, suffice it to say that despite SNES FEAR and NINTENDOFAQS, I'd still take RDR in what would be a close match. But the thing about the percentages here is that they're skewed by the SC and ME2 rallies. And while everyone was discussing how those voters helped Bioshock dogpile poor MGS3, I didn't see anywhere near that much discussion about how those same voters were almost definitely taking MGS over Earthbound, and taking RDR over SotC. So MGS got a slightly inflated number while SotC took a bit of a drumming, making it so that even if Earthbound wins in a close match against RDR, SotC still has a shot here. And secondly, it's been said that MGS1 has been looking decent compared to the rest of its series despite the 'deboost', but that might only be because almost nothing in the top half of this Division is a known quantity. Borderlands 2, Splatoon, and an Earthbound not suffucated by SFF are all contest newcomers, so getting a read on its performance through stats is impossible, leaving people to give it the eyeball test and saying it looked alright. Meanwhile, SotC started off the contest with more than 70% on a weakened TF2, and while that's not mindboggling or anything, it was an actually good first performance. RDR and Bayo 2 are also unknown quantities, but I already covered my thoughts on the implications of that match. Between that and the fact that the PS3 remaster apparently sold as well or better than the original game, and I think that the game has not only not missed a step, but has only grown stronger since GotD, in contrast to the supposed MGS deboost. And in a very close match, there's always PIC FACTOR to take into account. Seriously, looking through the wiki, I don't think SotC has ever looked bad, and there's no exception to that here. Meanwhile, MGS is stuck with an almost unrecognizable pic of Snake. All this is to say that I think Shadow of the Colossus has a very good shot at making this upset. And that's nothing to be flippant about, because whoever wins here will almost definitely take the division and even has a shot at the semis. Maybe I'm just biased because SotC is my favorite game ever, but I think it can do it. Bracket- Metal Gear Solid Prediction: Shadow of the Colossus, 51% Crew Consensus: MGS stops SotC again --- Moltar Status: hype Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
Excellent work by tranny, correctly predicting the FF7 live gameplay trailer would arrive tonight! --- Have you listened to this week's episode of The Show yet, buddy? board8.wikia.com | thengamer.com/xstats |
Division 8: Round 3 - Match 112 – (3) Metal Gear Solid 3: Snake Eater vs. (2) Mass Effect 2 Moltar’s Analysis Metal Gear Solid 3: Snake Eater Round 1 - 69.50% vs Mother 3 Round 2 - 52.03% vs BioShock Mass Effect 2 Round 1 - 79.08% vs Zero Escape: Virtue's Last Reward Round 2 - 51.12% vs Starcraft Neither game has looked impressive going into this match. Yeah, I had MGS3 coming into it, but failing to break 70% on a Japan-only game and then struggling to beat Bioshock doesn't really fill me with confidence. However, ME2 only did slightly better than Persona 4 did on a Zero Escape game, and then had the fight of its life against Starcraft. I'm going to stick with MGS3 here. I can buy that it underperformed last round due to the rallying from the Starcraft/ME2 match helping Bioshock. All of these games seem to be around the same strength, but MGS3 has historically been the strongest, and I'm banking on it still being a little bit ahead of the pack now. Also, with this match looking to be close, the pic may also play more of a factor here than usual, and MGS3 definitely wins that battle (yeah you know i'm stretching when i'm bringing up the pic factor please don't disappoint mgs) Moltar’s Bracket: Metal Gear Solid 3 Moltar’s Prediction: Metal Gear Solid 3 - 51% Transience’s Analysis Man, who knows? Don't take this as any kind of informed analysis because I'm as in the dark as anyone. Let's start with MGS3. That game has looked bad, but never as bad as it did against Bioshock. It outright lost the day vote and limped from the high 50s to a 52/48 win. It also got under 70% on a game never released in NA. I think it has built-in excuses though. There were rallies for both ME2 and Starcraft last round and those seemed to help out Bioshock. Mother 3 did better than expected but so did Earthbound and we don't need to mention Undertale. Also, MGS2 has RE4 under 45% which suggests that MGS3 hasn't really fallen unless RE4 has done the same. It looks like RE4/MGS3 is still a tight matchup and GOTD stats, for better or worse, have held up when they apply. So MGS3's about in the range of RE4. What about ME2? ME2 needed the day vote and a rally to overcome Starcraft, a game with very little respect. Yeah, it's a 90s game but that's still bad for a game thought to be a semifinal contender. ME2 also couldn't beat VLR any worse than Persona 4 did. It just doesn't seem like a solid game. But again, excuses. We'll start with Mass Effect and then branch out to WRPGs in general. Mass Effect got 45% on Smash 4 which did decently on FF7. That projects to about a doubling but that's not bad for what's assumed to be a top 2-4 game on the site. And it's the inferior (strength-wise) original game. Starcraft. Every game that did well in 2004 has done well here. Starcraft did the same and it destroyed Destiny. Did it expose ME2 or is Starcraft just legit? It's so hard to say but with everything else from 2004's contest doing well, you have to at least consider it here. Starcraft or Bioshock? Pre-contest it's Bioshock, but post-contest, maybe it's Starcraft? So, WRPGs. Skyrim proved its worth by beat a Metroid Prime on steroids and beating down Goldeneye. Fallout: New Vegas beat a Bioshock game (though not convincingly) and held up pretty well to RE4 on its own. Oblivion did alright on Mario RPG. For all of the talk about new games bombing, WRPGs have held up okay, way better than any Wii/Wii U games or modern JRPGs/FPS games. Mass Effect 2 has shown through several sources that it's at least not bombing. --- Moltar Status: hype Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
I
think I'm going to back Mass Effect 2. I'm not confident in it but
there's also going to be MGS1 in the poll. I've always seen these as
being a negative for both games involved and I'm looking for any reason
to pick either of these games. ME2 feels just barely better. transience's prediction: Mass Effect 2 with 50.70% Leonhart’s Analysis Both of these games gave their supporters reason to panic last round. MGS3 laid one of the biggest eggs in round 2 in basically letting BioShock stall it for the second half of the match and barely breaking 52% on it. ME2 needed a counter-rally to fend off Starcraft’s own rally and then pulled away after both rallies died. The question now is: Who wants to lose this match more? Neither of them seem to be trying to win it! Now you can make some excuses to explain away both of those performances. Mass Effect 2 probably wins with 53-54% if Starcraft never rallies, based on how well it did during the times when there were no rallies, which isn’t great, but still a little better. It’s also possible Metal Gear Solid 3 got caught in the middle of that rally, as it was two western games getting rallied and if voters decided to vote in the other matches as well, there’s a good chance BioShock would’ve been the beneficiary of that. MGS3 still would have underperformed quite a bit relative to expectations, but again, it could have been slightly less bad than what we saw. All that being said…I have no idea who’s going to win this. I’m going to stick with Metal Gear Solid 3 because it’s what’s in my bracket and it’s my favorite of the two, although I love them both. I have no feel for this match at all. Maybe I should pick Mass Effect 2 because this contest both hates me and apparently hates the idea of MGS vs. MGS matches, but I’ll go down with the ship if it comes to that! *salutes* Leonhart’s Vote: Metal Gear Solid 3 Leonhart’s Prediction: Metal Gear Solid 3 with 50.50% Kleenex’s Analysis Mass Effect 2 really disappointed me last round. I still have no faith in Starcraft's strength and even though ME2 managed to win in the end, it was in the most disappointing way possible. Once again, MGS has looked poor all contest, but I don't think MGS3 is in danger of losing to Starcraft. Metal Gear Solid 3 with 56% --- Moltar Status: hype Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
Guest’s Analysis - Janus5k This is a tricky match, mainly because neither game has looked terribly impressive. Mass Effect 2 got an underwhelming blowout against a game no one cares about and then 51% on Starcraft - a slightly rallied Starcraft, but replacing that number with 52% doesn't make it much better. It's old, so it's likely rebounded from 2009, but that wasn't really meant to be a close match. Thankfully, its opponent also looked pretty bad, getting under 70% on a game never released here (though we've seen fans or Mother-like games do, uh, crazy things in this contest) and then scoring only 52% on Bioshock. You can argue that Bioshock benefited from both Starcraft and ME2 rallies, but even 54% would indicate something of a decline for MGS3 since GOTD. Based on each game's individual performance, I don't know how you could be comfortable picking either to win, so let's look at their series. The MGS series hasn't looked good, but you could at least make excuses for most of it. Currently MGS2 is holding RE4 to under 55%, which seems good, but that could just indicate RE4's weakness, as MGS2's first two matches didn't inspire confidence. 4 was redeemed somewhat when KH2 put up a good number against Melee, and it's been said that 4 is likely to fall the most anyway. 5 had reasons to be weak. The original had a pretty bad-looking victory over Earthbound, but with SNESFAQs in full force perhaps it's not too bad. And then the original Mass Effect beat a mainline Mario (albeit the weakest) before bowing out respectably to Wii U Smash. 2 is generally accepted to be better than 1, so while this doesn't always translate to contest strength, I'm going to use that and a potential MGS decline to justify my last semi-feasible upset. Prediction: Mass Effect 2 with 51.24% Crew Consensus: Split, but leaning MGS3 --- Moltar Status: hype Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
MGS3 beating ME2 worse than BioShock wouldn't be too surprising, honestly. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
note to self to do oracle predix in the morning --- http://myanimelist.net/profile/angryaria <Die the death>! <Sentence to death>! <Great equalizer is the death>!! |
looks like a Kleenex sweep today also pretty sure this is the first double loss of the contest for the guests so good work you're rounding into form just in time --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
I've made lots of fine arguments and been wrong! That's part of it! --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
Hmmmm. Time for tranny to pick FFVI for tomorrow! --- "I do because I can." http://card.psnprofiles.com/1/Micer101.png |
Division 1: Round 4 - Match 113 – (1) Chrono Trigger vs. (3) Super Smash Bros. Melee Moltar’s Analysis Chrono Trigger Round 1 - 85.85% vs Ratchet & Clank: Up Your Arsenal Round 2 - 81.93% vs Dragon Quest VIII: Journey of the Cursed King Round 3 - 65.52% vs Final Fantasy X Super Smash Bros. Melee Round 1 - 67.71% vs Portal Round 2 - 60.03% vs Pokemon Gold/Silver/Crystal Version Round 3 - 55.30% vs Kingdom Hearts II Starting off Round 4 with 3 #BigFightFeel matches in a row! This match seems less and less debatable as the contest goes on. Melee has looked more and more mortal as the contest progressed. while CT looks more and more immortal. Pretty much anyone is going to agree that getting 65% on FFX is more impressive than 55% on KH2. Melee's only chance is if CT heavily overperformed last round due to SFF, and that's a big stretch. Melee would also need a rally to make up the strength gap and actually compete with CT, but CT is ready to defend itself from a rally (facebookfear). Logically, CT should win this in the mid-50s, but I already know it will outdo expectations, so I'll preemptively aim in the high 50s (and then it'll outdo that and end up in the 60s oh god ct spare us) Moltar’s Bracket: Super Smash Bros. Melee Moltar’s Prediction: Chrono Trigger - 59% Transience’s Analysis Today is probably my most hyped contest day in I don't know how long. Chrono Trigger has been an absolute monster this year, quadrupling two fodder games and doubling FFX. This is CT's one true tentpole match this contest unless it makes the finals. Ratchet and Clank? Okay, that game is junk. DQ8? Okay, that's another RPG. FFX? There's definitely overlap there, though no one would reasonably call it SFF. Chrono Trigger's performances have been contest-winning performances to the point where they're almost hard to believe. It has a chance today to put up or shut up against top level Nintendo competition. Melee is probably a top 10 game, but it only got 55% on Kingdom Hearts 2, a game that lost 57/43 to Twilight Princess in GOTD and lost narrowly to RE4 in 2009. FFX beat RE4 56/44. If you went off of stats, Chrono Trigger's going to double Melee with ease. I.. have a really hard time seeing that. I mean, FF7 couldn't double Smash 4. At what point do you just have to stop looking at stats and invoke common sense? If Chrono Trigger doubles Melee then it's the strongest game in the bracket. I'll be more conservative and give it around 58-60%. Melee has shown the ability to catch a rally and it probably stands out the best here: CT/Melee, FF6/FF7. Logically, CT wins this with about 55% but I'm a believer. transience's prediction: Chrono Trigger with 60.01% Leonhart’s Analysis This was shaping up to be an epic showdown…until Chrono Trigger put up 65% on FFX and Melee could only manage 55% on KH2. At this point, Melee’s only (legitimate) hope is that Chrono Trigger laid some pretty hefty SFF on Final Fantasy X because I can’t see Kingdom Hearts II being able to throttle Final Fantasy X, no matter how underwhelming it’s looked this contest. I’m betting on that CT performance just being legit though. All of its performances have lined up pretty well and seem to indicate that Chrono Trigger is once again a top 3 game on this site. Melee has probably never been as strong as a lot of people have thought/hoped/wished it was. After all, it’s never been that far removed from Final Fantasy X! With that being said, I’m going to predict… Leonhart’s Vote: Chrono Trigger Leonhart’s Prediction: Chrono Trigger with 65.53% --- Moltar Status: hype Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
Kleenex’s Analysis I could write a big long analysis of this match, but let's be realistic, this isn't debatable at this point. Melee has looked less than stellar against its three opponents thus far, while Chrono Trigger has put up three performances that have us questioning if even OoT could beat it. Chrono Trigger is going to win and it's not going to be close. A melee win here would surprise me more than almost every other result we've seen so far this contest. Chrono Trigger with 59% Guest’s Analysis - MechanicalWall After going through a series of mental gymnastics to try and make the Shadow of the Colossus upset sound plausible, and that upset not panning out, I'm not even gonna try and argue that Melee has a ghost of a chance to beat Chrono Trigger here. Considering their Round 3 performances, the argument for Chrono Trigger is pretty simple. If FFX wrecks KHII the way many would've assumed pre-contest, then Chrono Trigger is going to absolutely flatten Melee. If FFX=KHII, then the match is going to be closer, but still a very clear and decisive victory for CT. And if you think that KHII > FFX, then it's still going to have to be by a pretty significant amount for Melee to take Chrono Trigger. Personally, I can see the argument that FFX = KHII, or that maybe KHII is slightly better now. Of course, the only way to justify such a statment is to assume that the vastly superior Final Mix version of KHII finally being available in America really made a big difference for the game, as those who hated the simple combat are now faced with a difficulty setting that makes the most out of the system. That, or KHIII hype being real now that the game has some footage out. But going the remaster route means having to account for two different FFX remasters that include the International content. Such boosts are just very vague hypotheticals, and in both cases, they're more likely instances of current fans being the target audience rather than newcomers, unlike the SotC remaster. So in reality, FFX probably still beats KHII. Maybe by a slimmer margin than before, but that's all. If it seems like I don't have much to say about Chrono Trigger and Melee themselves, that's because I don't. CT's godstomp of FFX speaks for itself, and Melee struggling with KHII only exposed the former. The only thing left to see is if SFF really did play a role in the CT vs. FFX; I don't think it did to any significant degree, though. If anything, the far more popular FFX should've made the SFF work to its advantage. Oh, and there's a potential rally for Melee, too, but if it's big enough for it to actually beat Chrono Trigger, then the rest of the bracket is at risk. You wouldn't want that, now do you, potential rallier? Prediction: Chrono Trigger, 61% Crew Consensus: ... --- Moltar Status: hype Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
melee breaking 40% here would be a pretty good performance for it tbh --- sig pssssssssssst - http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/568795-soccer-challenge |
