11/30/2015 4:31:28 AM#301
although now that I'm rereading the outline from joseph campbell, it really is FF10 down to a T, isn't it?

http://www.thewritersjourney.com/hero's_journey.htm

damn. Except, I guess, the very end? (spoilers... or reverse spoilers, I guess)
---
http://myanimelist.net/profile/angryaria
<Die the death>! <Sentence to death>! <Great equalizer is the death>!!
Chrono Trigger 65.52% 30132
Final Fantasy X 34.48% 15860
TOTAL VOTES 45992

Super Smash Bros. Melee 55.3% 25727
Kingdom Hearts II 44.7% 20795
TOTAL VOTES 46522

Crew Predictions: 91/98

What Happened: Chrono Trigger has the performance of the contest vs. FFX while Melee gets a clean, though unimpressive, win over KH2.

What Will Happen: Chrono Trigger/Melee goes from hyped match to looking pretty clear unless CT/FFX had some funny business in it.

Crew Prediction Challenge: points

Leonhart: 90
Moltar: 90
Guest: 88
Kleenex: 86
transience: 86

Crew Accuracy Challenge: Two points for me!

Leonhart: 21
transience: 19.5
Kleenex: 19
Moltar: 18
Guest: 16.5
---
xyzzy
Nope FFVI is just bad! No chance against FFVII.
---
"I do because I can."
http://card.psnprofiles.com/1/Micer101.png
honestly, FF7 doesn't look any better. WW would easily 60/40 Smash 4.
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add the c and back away
iphonesience
Yay more guest points cuz me :)
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Cranky's Advice - "git gud"
Oh yea, I guess raytan won.
transcience posted...
honestly, FF7 doesn't look any better. WW would easily 60/40 Smash 4.


Well no, it isn't pulling away but I guess right now the performance can best be described as satisfactory.
---
"I do because I can."
http://card.psnprofiles.com/1/Micer101.png
so yeah, ff7/ff6 is 55/45 at worst. of course, that match was never really about contest strength...
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add the c and back away
iphonesience
11/30/2015 7:49:24 PM#309
Division 3: Round 3 - Match 101 Ė (8) Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow/Green Version vs. (12) Sonic the Hedgehog 2

Moltarís Analysis

Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow/Green Version
Round 1 - 68.34% vs Tetris
Round 2 - 62.67% vs Super Mario Bros. 3

Sonic the Hedgehog 2
Round 1 - 53.17% vs Portal 2
Round 2 - 66.71% vs Uncharted 2: Among Thieves

woo itís tumblr day again

Pokemon/SMB3 was easily going to beat the winner of Sonicís fourpack no matter what beforehand, so the excess voters are really just going to make this look worse than it should be for Sonic. Like we saw last round, the rallying turned a close match with SMB3 into a nearly 63% win for Pokemon. Pokemon is favored on tumblr over Sonic, so the same thing should apply here as well.

Except Pokemon would have naturally beaten Sonic before with like a doubling, so it should easily clear 70% rip hedgehog.

Moltarís Bracket: Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow/Green Version

Moltarís Prediction: Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow/Green Version Ė 72%



Transienceís Analysis

Pokemon wins, but how do you estimate its percentage? There's obviously the tumblr factor to take into consideration here. I see tumblr as being somewhat deviantart-ish and Sonic does well there - but so does Pokemon. Pokemon is probably more popular but is it more slanted than we are? RBY probably doubles Sonic 2 here. Tumblr can prefer Pokemon 60/40 and Sonic will still overperform.

I guess the answer here is to just pick a conservative number for Pokemon to get to and go from there. 65%? Sure, why not?

transience's prediction: Pokemon RBY with 65.14%



Leonhartís Analysis

Boring day. I donít even feel motivated to write much of anything. R/B/Y was going to kill Sonic 2 even without the rally, but with the rally, this will get absurd. It managed to get nearly 63% on Mario 3. Sonic 2 stands no chance. It wouldnít do that well even with its natural strength. Beating Portal 2 and blowing out Uncharted 2 were nice wins, but this is the end of the line. At least Sonic 2 got a couple of nice wins under its belt before it gets embarrassed in defeat as usual.

Leonhartís Vote: Sonic the Hedgehog 2

Leonhartís Prediction: Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow/Green with 70.70%
---
Moltar Status: hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
11/30/2015 7:49:41 PM#310
Kleenexís Analysis

Rally aside, Pokemon looked like it probably would have edged out Mario 3 anyway. The gameís legit and itís still getting the benefit of rallytown today, so itís going to massacre Sonic 2. Sonic was going to lose bad today no matter which way you slice it, but itís probably going to lose really bad. Like really really bad. Poor Walking Dead.

Pokemon Red/Blue with 70%



Guestís Analysis - MechanicalWall

Wait, there's another match happening on Undertale day?

Oh, yes. Sonic 2 vs. Pokemon, AKA the game that couldn't break 30% on Mario World vs the game that probably would've still beaten Mario 3 on a normal day. And I know that Mario World vs. Sonic 2 happened more than a decade ago, but with games that old, I can't imagine their performances fluctuating all that much over the years (and the only other matches Sonic 2 has participated in since then are LOL 4-Ways). But even assuming some weird platformer SFF was going on in that match, and that Pokemon is still somewhat weaker than Mario World, I wouldn't give Sonic more than 35% on a normal day.

But, this isn't a normal day, is it?
Pack away any stats you might've busted out for this match, 'cause tumblr is here. And not only are they here, but if they hope to push Undertale over Mario World, then they're gonna be here in force. And in case you somehow forgot, Pokemon used the tumblr vote to turn what was supposed to be a close match into a burial ground for Mario 3.

Now, I have reason to believe that they might not overwhelmingly favor Pokemon over Sonic the way they did with Mario. Sonic is notorious for spawning unholy amounts of fanart, fanfiction, and shipping wars, the cornerstones of any tumblr fandom. But even then, they probably still favor Pokemon by a pretty significant margin, if only because it has stayed relevant. Sonic might siphon away some of the tumblr vote, but nowhere near enough.

So between Pokemon's natural GameFaqs strength, the fact that it'll still receive the majority of the tumblr vote, and the fact that it has been targeted as the last hope against Undertale if Mario World fails, it's gonna make Sonic 2 look bad. Like, getting tripled in Round 3 bad.

If only Sonic 3 & Knuckles was here to save us from this nonsense...

Winner: Pokemon, 75%



Crew Consensus: Pokemon used win. It's super effective!
---
Moltar Status: hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
You can do it, Sonic!
---
NEW YORK METS - 2015 National League Champions
11/30/2015 9:41:02 PM#312
Division 3: Round 3 - Match 102 Ė (6) Undertale vs. (2) Super Mario World

Moltarís Analysis

Undertale
Round 1 - 50.95% vs Mass Effect 3
Round 2 - 55.74% vs Fallout 3

Super Mario World
Round 1 - 73.27% vs Animal Crossing: New Leaf
Round 2 - 68.25% vs Final Fantasy VIII

Not much to say here. If Undertale fans are as prepared as they were last round, then once the rally kicks into high gear during the afternoon, Undertale should win this. It all depends on if they show up, and after two rounds of showing up, why would they stop now?

Moltarís Bracket: Super Mario World

Moltarís Prediction: Undertale Ė 53%



Transienceís Analysis

Undertale has had the dumb luck of facing western games, aka the enemy. Yeah, great, you can beat WRPGs. But can you beat a classic? Can you defeat people's childhoods?

Mario World is the real deal - a top 10 game at worst on this website. Undertale has to deal with more votes, and some of tumblr's voters will defect here. Fallout 3 ain't Mario. It might put up somewhat similar percentages but you're not getting the fangirl community to vote for a Fallout character. You might for Mario and Yoshi though.

So yeah, Undertale's screwed. It's got to beat the man, the legend himself. Mario World is going to ki---oh who am i fooling with this writeup

transience's prediction: Undertale with 57.34%



Leonhartís Analysis

I want to believe Super Mario World can find a way to thwart the rally, but I donít. I guess people will get excited about how big of a lead Undertale will manage to come back from this time or whatever, but itís pretty boring when thereís no possibility for failure once the rally kicks into overdrive. Bleh, wake me up when this is over.

Leonhartís Vote: Super Mario World

Leonhartís Prediction: Undertale with 55.55%



Kleenexís Analysis

Time to do this song and dance again. Once again, people have been holding out hope that Mario World will be the one to stop the UNDERTALE MENACE, but it wonít and Iím here to tell you why.

Last round, Undertale showed classic ďsnowballĒ rally trends. The rallying started earlier, it went stronger for longer and it beat a much stronger game by a lot more than its first time around. Thereís little reason to doubt this wonít continue into round 3, and Mario World probably isnít a huge enough jump in strength from Fallout 3 to stunt the rally enough. Now, one might suggest that Mario World is a tougher game to rally against than Mass Effect 3 or Fallout 3. While that assumption would be right, it really doesnít matter in the long run. At the peak of the rally last round, Undertale was pulling in 350-400 votes per update, sometimes even cresting above 400. Mario World was getting around 300 or so, and that was due to the Undertale voters greatly favoring it over FF8 while the rally was underway. It wonít have that luxury this round.

The sad fact of the matter is that the vote totals this year are just not high enough to combat that kind of strength. Not even Ocarina was pulling anywhere near those kind of numbers against Hearthstone. The votes just arenít there. Undertale is only going to get more exposure as people reblog the rally info and unless the Tumblr voters completely abandon it en masse, itís not going to lose. Undertale managed to swing around 15,000 votes against Fallout 3 last match. Unless Mario World can be up at least 10,000 before the rally starts kicking into gear, it doesnít have a chance.

Undertale with 57%
---
Moltar Status: hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
11/30/2015 9:41:10 PM#313
Fabulous Guest Analysis - Korayashi

It's been awhile since I've done one of these, but maybe by doing a HIGH PROFILE MATCH and RANDOMLY CAPING AND BOLDING THINGS I'll earn a place on some future contest crew that somehow resorts to using me!


Anyway, this match pits this year's rally, Undertale, against the 16-bit stud-muffin Super Mario World. Though I've never played Undertale, I've heard good things. It's easy to appreciate this rally compared to some previous ones like Draven or L-Block. It doesn't feel like it's all just some big joke to some group of people. I mean, now that it's happening it's kinda becoming a joke to some people, but it began just as people really enjoying the game. That's good.

But it did come with a thunder, that's bad. The rally took off and overwhelmed Mass Effect 3, coming back from a tremendous deficit. Some considered it a fluke, others saw it as the inevitable fate of the contest. Round 2 made it seem more like the former. It caught on soon against Fallout 3, which by all means should still have some sort of boost from Fallout 4's recent release. Undertale crushed it. Undertale can not be stopped.

Super Mario World did what it was expected too in Round 1, and benefited from the Undertale rally in Round 2. It seems the voters the rally has brought in have a soft spot for 90s nostalgia, is that some kinda tumblr thing? Anyway, SMW benefited. It's the strongest game that Undertale has met so far, and it has a chance if nostalgia bleeds the rally a bit dry.

But it probably won't.

Korayashi's Bracket: SMW > Fallout 3. Those were simpler times.

Korayashi's Vote: Super Mario World

Korayashi's Prediction: Undertale wins, 61.15%



Crew Consensus: SMW is not spared by Undertale
---
Moltar Status: hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
Wow, the Crew went pretty high on Undertale in general. I still think this match will probably be closer than all of the other predictions besides maybe Moltar's prediction.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ!
I am disappointed in all of you the lack of faith disturbs me
---
satoru iwata
save_us.crew_curse
---
Cranky's Advice - "git gud"
Oh yea, I guess raytan won.
hey if you guys wanna set yourselves up for disappointment that's on you!
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http://i.imgur.com/RHvCiY3.png
Only Zelda can save us as long as it's not cheated.
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http://i498.photobucket.com/albums/rr345/Rakaputra/B8%20Girls%202012/pjbas.png
LongLiveraytan
brb gonna tap Reggie for this one
---
satoru iwata
Crew curse confirms SMW victory.
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XBL Gamertag - Tiirshak
PSN ID - Kudaark Steam Name : skaalfa
Mario giving away % like it's going out of style

that last update was not promising
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http://i.imgur.com/RHvCiY3.png
darn I gave Sonic too much credit
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http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif
Can't believe I'm going to be reduced to rooting for Pokemon next round

dark times
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http://i.imgur.com/RHvCiY3.png
embrace undertale and cheer for chrono trigger

that's the true way
---
xyzzy
transience posted...
embrace undertale and cheer for chrono trigger

that's the true way


i like this
---
http://myanimelist.net/profile/angryaria
<Die the death>! <Sentence to death>! <Great equalizer is the death>!!
transience posted...
embrace undertale and cheer for chrono trigger

that's the true way


*fistbump*
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Communists
If this goes on will it be the biggest win ever for a game/character in Round 3? Seriously Pokemon has more than 75% and if the rally goes on, it can finish with even more!
---
Why do we exist?What happens when we stop existing?
124 Gurus were better than me in BGE 2015 contest!
Shame on people who voted Pokemon over Sonic 2 (one of the real best game ever)
time to spin this positively

maybe the tumblr voters will vastly favor skyrim over mario 64 next round and skyrim can make the quarters!!

in before skyrim loses to metroid
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http://i.imgur.com/RHvCiY3.png
Safer_777 posted...
If this goes on will it be the biggest win ever for a game/character in Round 3? Seriously Pokemon has more than 75% and if the rally goes on, it can finish with even more!


Link broke 80% on Yoshi in his R3 match back in '04, thank you SFF + Twilight Princess having been just announced
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"Nothing I could do!"
-Darksydephil
Pokemon might break more than 80 by the end of this.

God, and I thought a tripling was going to be the worst of it...
---
Video game companies don't care about you, so stop kissing their asses
Who would have taken Tetris > Uncharted 2 pre-contest?

Then again considering OldFAQs we probably wouldn't have been surprised if UC2 lost.
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"Nothing I could do!"
-Darksydephil
Tetris would have been the easy favourite over UC2.
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add the c and back away
iphonesience
I have another question. Will Pokemon be the only game/character who scores higher on 3rd round than the previous ones?
---
Why do we exist?What happens when we stop existing?
124 Gurus were better than me in BGE 2015 contest!
Link to the past might
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http://i.imgur.com/RHvCiY3.png
The Mana Sword posted...
Can't believe I'm going to be reduced to rooting for Pokemon next round

dark times

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http://i498.photobucket.com/albums/rr345/Rakaputra/B8%20Girls%202012/pjbas.png
LongLiveraytan
L-Block vs. Pikachu Part 2 is upon us
---
http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif
Is this the only time where someone or something has gotten a higher score in Round 3 rather than Round 1 and Round 2? There are a lot of contests.
---
Why do we exist?What happens when we stop existing?
124 Gurus were better than me in BGE 2015 contest!
It's happened plenty of times, I'm sure.
---
http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif
12/1/2015 7:45:59 PM#340
Division 4: Round 3 - Match 103 Ė (1) The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim vs. (5) Metroid Prime

Moltarís Analysis

The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim
Round 1 - 66.62% vs Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney
Round 2 - 59.05% vs GoldenEye 007

Metroid Prime
Round 1 - 63.09% vs The Elder Scrolls III: Morrowind
Round 2 - 57.95% vs Half-Life 2

A lot of people doubted Skyrim after R1, but that Goldeneye performance was legit (well either that or GE/Diablo have dropped in strength significantly). Metroid Prime also had few doubters as well, but then it outdid its 2010 performance on Half Life 2 by 7%. I mean Iíd take Goldeneye over 2015 Half-Life 2, but that one would probably be close too.

With both games looking good going into this match, itís hard to say who the favorite should be. Skyrim was the favorite pre-contest, but it seems like itíll be a close match either way at this point. Feels like the old Nintendo game should beat the new western game here, but I get Fallout 3/Prime vibes from this, where Skyrim is too strong for Prime to overcome the trends favoring it.

So yeah, Iím leaning towards Skyrim still. However, with the way Metroid in general has looked so far, I wouldnít be surprised at all if it swung the couple percent it needs to win this match.

Moltarís Bracket: Skyrim

Moltarís Prediction: Skyrim Ė 51%



Transienceís Analysis

There's a lot to digest with this match, along with a head vs. heart decision. Skyrim feels like the winner based on pure results while Metroid Prime seems like the one you'd expect GameFAQs to back given our obsession with old games and big franchises.

Let's compare. Skyrim had a rough first round but did a number on a core Nintendo game in round 2. Skyrim basically did equivalent on Goldeneye as Prime did on Half-Life 2. Which would you pick? I would have picked 007 over HL2 pre-contest and that feeling was reinforced after FFX got 65-35'd by Chrono Trigger. Chrono Trigger may be a world beater now but FFX has to have gone in the wrong direction somewhat. I mean, every Valve game has looked bad but Half-Life 1. Think about it. There's also the fact that Fallout 3 52/48'd Metroid Prime in GOTD. Basically, pretty much every contest result reinforces Skyrim.

But Metroid, man. Let's talk about it. Super Metroid has dominated two opponents in ways that most people did not expect and Metroid Prime turned a 50/50 match into 57/43. Elder Scrolls has done alright enough but Skyrim's on a different level than those guys. Still, if I was looking at a Nintendo vs. Elder Scrolls matchup that's expected to be close, I'd lean Nintendo every time. It's also a 2002 game going up against a 2011 one. Wind Waker showed that the Gamecube still has some serious power here when it held FF6 to under 54%. Wind Waker went 55/45 with Prime back in the day, too, and Metroid always does best when it's up against western games.

There's also the possibility of voter overlap with this Undertale nonsense going on, but Undertale is whipping Mario World so hard that I'm almost wondering if anyone will still care by the time midnight hits. Also, I'm not sure that they back Metroid significantly - it was up against Phoenix Wright last time and there's no greater board vote than that guy has. I don't think you can hold it against Skyrim.

So I guess I'm leaning Skyrim here. I'm going against Nintendo which feels real bad man. But why not?

transience's prediction: Skyrim with 52.52%
---
Moltar Status: hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
12/1/2015 7:46:05 PM#341
Leonhartís Analysis

This is a big test for both of these games. Skyrim rebounded in a big way from its first round disappointment with a 60/40 win over GoldenEye. Metroid Prime turned a 50/50 match 5 years ago into a 58/42 win over Half-Life 2. Metroid in general has been looking pretty good this contest, but now itís time to see what theyíre really worth. The expectation for Skyrim has been ďstrongest western game.Ē Metroid Prime lost to Fallout 3 in GOTD, so a win here would either mean itís gotten stronger or Skyrim isnít as strong as we thought. I doubt Fallout 3 couldíve managed 60/40 on GoldenEye when it only 60/40íd Halo and got less than that on Batman in GOTD, so I feel pretty good about Skyrim being the strongest western game, although we have no way of knowing, thanks to Undertale.

This is all speculation on my part, but my gut reaction is that Skyrim is stronger than Fallout 3 and GoldenEye is stronger than Half-Life 2. Metroid Prime may have gotten stronger in these past five years, but I donít think itís going to be enough. Weíll probably have a pretty good idea of how this one is going within the first five minutes. Metroid Prime has had insane early votes both rounds, so if itís already losing or struggling early on, itís probably done. It needs to jump out big early and then hold on for dear life.

Leonhartís Vote: Metroid Prime

Leonhartís Prediction: Skyrim with 54.50%



Kleenexís Analysis

And now back to your regularly scheduled program. Skyrim has to be the favorite for this, right? It beat Goldeneye worse than Prime beat out Half-Life 2. Does anyone take HL2 over Goldeneye? I donít necessarily have the most respect for GE, but I feel like it probably wins that match. This will definitely be a close one, though. Weíre likely to get some more Undertale spillover, and I think Skyrim probably benefits from that again. The game seems reasonably well liked by the Tumblrkin and probably gives it the edge is needs to push this into ďclose but never really in doubtĒ territory. All part of the master plan to have Mario lose next round !!

Skyrim with 53%



Guestís Analysis - ctes

I'm not exactly sure how this match will be affected by the rally spillover from the day before. Guessing it helps Prime a little bit, but hopefully it wont be deciding.

Skyrim has been suspected as being the strongest game that was created since our last game contest, and it probably is too. It just beat GoldenEye without really breaking a sweat, judging by 2009 that should favor it against Prime. There's no contest evidence to back this up, but Skyrim appears to be bigger on GameFAQs than Fallout 3 was. The latter beat Prime last contest. Also, Skyrim has bracket votes probably. This is why Skyrim was the favorite precontest.

Now, Prime has looked really impressive so far actually. It easily beat Morrowind and put up much bigger numbers on HL2 than it did in GotD, though several results in this ontest suggest that it's likely mostly a cause of those two dropping off a bit.

Skyrim likely wins in a close match, which is why I fear for what the rally is capable of! The spillover should only increase each time so if tumblr likes Prime better it could spice things up. But I'm gonna go ahead and ignore that and predict a close but safe victory for Skyrim.

Skyrim - 53.29%
Metroid Prime - 46.71%


Crew Consensus: Skyrim sweep
---
Moltar Status: hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
uh oh

feeling less confident about skyrim already
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
had a feeling that we'd sweep
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add the c and back away
iphonesience
crew curse: ACTIVATED
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Communists
Oh man, crew curse.

I've been waiting for these write-ups for days! As I've started leaning away from my bracket and towards Metroid Prime, this doesn't make me feel any better (ignoring crew curse). Tranny hit the nail on the head with the "head vs. heart." I might as well just flip a damn coin at this point.
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NEW YORK METS - 2015 National League Champions
Well, I'm kind of surprised people are entertaining Prime. Skyrim's round 2 performance was pretty clearly better, in my opinion.
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http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif
(edited 12/1/2015 7:56:28 PM)report
I'm feeling pretty good about Skyrim here
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http://i.imgur.com/RHvCiY3.png
I feel like the only way Skyrim loses is due to some Undertale spillover - which is possible.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
Tumblr loves Skyrim though, from what I recall.
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http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif
Skyrim in my bracket but damn I would have picked Prime in my oracle if I still cared
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http://i498.photobucket.com/albums/rr345/Rakaputra/B8%20Girls%202012/pjbas.png
LongLiveraytan

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