GameFAQs Contests
Best. Game. Ever. Contest Analysis Crew - Part 4
Oops. Paulg235's belated Guest Write-Up Chrono Trigger has looked great in its first two match whilst Final Fantasy X has looked off. Really off. The writing's been on the wall since its MMX match and all that needs to happen now is for Chrono Trigger to send FFX packing. Prediction - Chrono Trigger - 54.67% My Vote - Chrono Trigger --- PaulG235 "Ike and Ash & Co. saw a Yoshi and didn't catch it." - Mer telling us his dream. |
sabotage thwarted --- thelefty for analysis crew 2008 imo -tranny I have a third degree burn in flame-o-nomics -Sir Chris |
YOU FOOL. I WAS TO BRING GLORY TO THE GUEST POSITION. MEGA MAN STRENGTH IT COMES FROM SOMEWHERE YOU FOOLS. MEGA MAN X IS THE MESSIAH. FINAL FANTASY X, CONTEST CHAMPION. Lopen's Defiant Prediction: Final Fantasy X with 87.25% --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
Division 1: Round 3 - Match 98 – (3) Super Smash Bros. Melee vs. (10) Kingdom Hearts II Moltar’s Analysis Super Smash Bros. Melee Round 1 - 67.71% vs Portal Round 2 - 60.03% vs Pokemon Gold/Silver/Crystal Version Kingdom Hearts II Round 1 - 58.71% vs Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots Round 2 - 60.03% vs The Last of Us KH2 has done well so far, but Melee is a brick wall. 60% on GSC is better than 60% on Last of Us no matter how you look at it. The real question here is how much Melee wins by. A powered-up CT isn't going to make it easy for Melee to escape the division, so if it can outdo what CT gets on FFX by a decent margin, it's got a shot. Unfortunately for it, that's probably too tough of a task. Five years ago, Zelda TP beat KH2 with 57%. KH2 does not seem to have fallen any from then (if anything, it's looking even better now), and I would take Melee over TP, so that seems like a reasonable floor for Melee. Then we get into Pokemon GSC vs KH2 territory...hmmm, yeah that would be a close one. I'll figure that it ends up around there. Moltar’s Bracket: Super Smash Bros. Melee Moltar’s Prediction: Super Smash Bros. Melee - 60% Transience’s Analysis This one's tricky. I mean, Melee wins obviously but I've been impressed by KH2 this year. I think it's about on FFX's level which suggests something like a 55/45 win for Melee. Say what you will about Metal Gear Solid but 60% is no joke. Melee's complicating factor is this weird, unnecessary rally from their subreddit. A 55/45 match against GSC turned to 60/40 and it's hard to tell how much of that was a day vote and how much was a rally. It probably gained like 2% from the extra votes. This match is probably more about measuring up to Chrono Trigger. Melee/CT is so hard to call even after seeing this one. transience's prediction: Melee with 57.12% Leonhart’s Analysis Both games have put up some pretty good numbers on decently strong games in their first two matches. Kingdom Hearts II is clearly weaker than SSBM though, so it’s just a matter of how much it can net in defeat and what Melee needs to put up here to look good against Chrono Trigger. At the very least, it has to outdo Chrono Trigger’s percentage on FFX because KH2 > FFX ain’t happening (see: FFIX > KH1 earlier in this contest). Twilight Princess got 57.10% on Kingdom Hearts II in GOTD, and I’d expect Melee to be able to outdo that, if nothing else. I don’t think it’s beating CT next round though, so I’m not going to go much higher than that. Leonhart’s Vote: Kingdom Hearts II Leonhart’s Prediction: Super Smash Bros. Melee with 58.56% Kleenex’s Analysis For a hot second I thought about maybe giving Kingdom Hearts a non-zero chance to win this match, but after looking at both games’ previous round, that idea quickly went away. Both games score about the same percentage on their respective opponents, and I’m sure as hell not taking The Last of Us to beat Gold/Silver today, tomorrow, or any day ever on this website. Looping back around to the first match today, what makes this interesting is the Chrono Trigger vs. Melee performance. I think CT is the favorite just based on the first two round, so Melee is going to have to step things up today if it wants to swing the momentum back in its favor come next week. I don’t think it will. Smash Bros. Melee with 58% --- Moltar Status: hype Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
Guest’s Analysis - POOTERSS Previous results: R1: Melee>Portal with 67.71%, overperforming median Oracle expectations by 4% R2: Melee> Pokemon GSC with 60%, overperforming median Oracle expectations by 3% R1: Kingdom Hearts II>MGS4 with 58.71%, overperforming median oracle expectations by 6% R2: Kingdom Hearts II>The Last of Us with 60%, overperforming median Oracle expectations by 4% Analysis: During the bracket-making process, most Gurus quickly picked Melee to win this match in anticipation for the much-hyped showdown with FFX or Chrono Trigger. 95% of Gurus picked Melee to win this match, whatever it was up against. 0% picked Kingdom Hearts II, and 1% picked The Last of Us to make the 4th round. That surprises me. Kingdom Hearts II has gone under the radar as one of the bigger surprises of this contest. I mean, most people thought it would get to round 3, but not the way it did, comfortably winning over what were thought of us strong(top 60 possibly) games on the site in MGS4 and The Last of Us. Many had MGS4 taking out KH2, and they were quickly proven wrong in that match. Although Kingdom Hearts II you could argue has faced non-Nintendo, newer games, which this contest have shown to be two traits that have not fared well this contest. Then again, Melee has also done very well, taking out my upset pick last round of Pokemon GSC with a dominant 60%, though that was on a day when the vote totals were elevated due to outside rallying. Melee has looked great this contest as well. I would say the primary hope for Kingdom Hearts II is that the Cloud announcement being in Smash Bros. Wii U helps out Kingdom Hearts II more than it helps out an older iteration of Smash(Melee). We saw how Cloud being in Kingdom Hearts helped Cloud the character win the 2003 Character Battle, and there is a chance people voting will still have the Cloud announcement solidly in their minds when voting, and link Cloud's appearance in KHII as enough justification to vote for KHII over Melee. There is also the very slight chance of Kingdom Hearts 3 news or new information being released, which is possible. On the flip-side, it has been a bad idea to bet on whatever is the newer game in the contest. KH2 is from 2005, Melee is from 2001, thus advantage Melee. Also, the stronger source of rallying power has shown to be from Melee, which rallied a significant amount of votes in the previous round against Pokemon Gold/Silver, going from 55% to 60% with added votes. 60% against Pokemon GSC is really strong, really putting the fear of God into Chrono Trigger/FFX backers. KHII winning would be a large upset, and I do believe it is within the realm of possibility. If I had to put a number on it, I would say 11%. That's too low of a number to definetly make the upset call on though. Kingdom Hearts II has looked great against newer, non-Nintendo games. It now goes up against the definitive old Nintendo game on this site, and I think this is where it's run stops. Super Smash Bros. Melee wins with 61.2% of the vote. Crew Consensus: Melee overcomes the darkness --- Moltar Status: hype Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
barring a rally, I'll take two points thankyouverymuch --- xyzzy |
I wouldn't guarantee Melee falls below your percentage even without a rally KH's day vote is practically non-existent now. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
sorry can't hear you over these 52% updates Melee? more like MGS3 --- xyzzy |
I'd be fine with it but if KH2 is going to embarrass Melee it had better really embarrass it 57/43 ain't gonna cut it --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
Metal Gear Solid 60.34% 25815 EarthBound 39.66% 16967 TOTAL VOTES 42782 Shadow of the Colossus 59.23% 24987 Red Dead Redemption 40.77% 17199 TOTAL VOTES 42186 Metal Gear Solid 3: Snake Eater 52.03% 22142 BioShock 47.97% 20412 TOTAL VOTES 42554 Starcraft 48.88% 21228 Mass Effect 2 51.12% 22205 TOTAL VOTES 43433 Crew Predictions: 89/96 What Happened: Starcraft rides its killer night vote to a quick lead before Mass Effect's day vote dooms it. MGS3 comes out hot before collapsing all day. MGS1 weathers an early storm to a 60/40 win and SOTC puts RDR away. What Will Happen: Does anybody want to win this division? Every single game went below expectations. MGS3/ME2 in particular is very unpredictable. Crew Prediction Challenge: points Leonhart: 88 Moltar: 88 Guest: 86 Kleenex: 84 transience: 84 Crew Accuracy Challenge: Leon gets MGS1, Moltar gets RDR, tran gets MGS3 and Guest gets ME2 Leonhart: 21 Kleenex: 19 Moltar: 18 transience: 17.5 Guest: 16.5 --- xyzzy |
I think the favorites are MGS and ME 2 to win now. --- Why do we exist?What happens when we stop existing? |
I
find it weird that some say SOTC "disappointed" considering that match
got a decent amount of debate pre-contest, or just that sheer thought
that almost 60% on Red Dead is "disappointing". But yeah this site probably cares diddly squat about RDR. Seems like a game with a hardcore fanbase and not much else, hence why it was able to do well on THE LIST. --- "Nothing I could do!" -Darksydephil |
yeah i thought there was something i was missing when i guessed 57-43. surprised to find out i got second closest --- Started from the bottom now we here |
I have Melee > FF7. Only a rally can save my bracket now. |
lmaoooooooooooooooooooo FFX --- Communists |
So painful to see FFX losing this badly --- "I do because I can." http://card.psnprofiles.com/1/Micer101.png |
Division 2: Round 3 - Match 99 – (1) Final Fantasy VI vs. (4) The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker Moltar’s Analysis Final Fantasy VI Round 1 - 77.03% vs Assassin's Creed II Round 2 - 66.94% vs Paper Mario: The Thousand-Year Door The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker Round 1 - 72.60% vs Pokemon X/Y Round 2 - 63.25% vs Star Wars: Knights of the Old Republic Like with CT/FFX, you could have made an argument for Wind Waker to win this match before the contest. However, now that we've seen it look very good in both matches, it's very hard to justify taking Zelda here. FF6 hasn't looked as nuts as CT, but it has still looked very strong and is a lock for at least the #2 FF game on the site. Wind Waker is a bit lower on the Zelda totem pole, and has put up average performances so far. Basically it doesn't look much stronger, and it was already weaker than FF6 to boot. Percentage-wise, I'd expect FF6 to end up in the high-50s or around 60. It's showing against TTYD should keep it in check here since it doesn't look like Wind Waker has plummeted in strength. Now if it goes all CT/FFX on WW, then FF7 better watch out. Moltar’s Bracket: Final Fantasy VI Moltar’s Prediction: Final Fantasy VI - 58% Transience’s Analysis I'm going to let my crew brethren handle the logical/statistical breakdown of this match. FF6's numbers are a little bit better, SNES boost, 54/46 or so, maybe a little higher if Chrono Trigger has moved them significantly. I'm going to go with a purely subjective approach. Final Fantasy VI is a classic. It's largely thought of as the first big Final Fantasy game, one of the most mature games story-wise, and a game that's still referenced as an all-time game today. Wind Waker is a good Zelda game but it's not a classic in the sense that FF6 is. Putting things in slightly different, possibly incendiary terms: Final Fantasy VI is the game that converted people to Final Fantasy; Wind Waker is the game that changed Zelda forever. For a lot of fans, that was negative. We went from the traditional adventuring of Ocarina to 'celda' and sailing. It's not the same. Now, do people like Wind Waker? Of course. It's a good game. But it's not a classic in the sense that FF6 is. Its biggest advantage is that it has the Zelda name attached to it and that would normally mean a lot. But in this 90s driven, SNES-boosted environment? FF6 is by far the bigger game, the one that touched people more, the classic. Wind Waker is the 2003 followup to the big Zelda games on the Gamecube. Wind Waker is the singular reason why Twilight Princess was such a huge reveal and a hyped game. I think FF6 goes to town here. There's always the concern that Zelda beats everything and you can't blow it out, but if ever there was a time for this to happen, it's now. transience's prediction: Final Fantasy VI with 60.14% Leonhart’s Analysis Currently, Chrono Trigger is blowing the doors off of Final Fantasy X. These SNES RPGs are just steamrolling the competition. Before the contest, I doubt anyone would have predicted Wind Waker to be any significant margin ahead of Final Fantasy X. Even now, it really shouldn’t be the case. Final Fantasy VI isn’t going to be as strong as Chrono Trigger, so I wouldn’t expect this same sort of beatdown. --- Moltar Status: hype Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
Plus, there’s the fact that it’s facing Zelda.
Final Fantasy getting its doors blown off is one thing. We’ve seen it
several times this contest alone. Zelda has never been blown out in a
1-on-1 format. Now Wind Waker got rocked pretty hard by Melee in 4-ways,
so it’s not like FFVI couldn’t do it. This would be a landmark victory
for Final Fantasy against Zelda if FFVI can do it. Hopefully it can so
the people who picked Wind Waker to win can feel as silly as I do right
now for picking FFX > CT! Leonhart’s Vote: Final Fantasy VI Leonhart’s Prediction: Final Fantasy VI with 60.60% Kleenex’s Analysis Before yesterday, I think you could have made a good case for Wind Waker to score an upset and come out of this match alive. Now, I don’t think there’s anyway you could say that with a straight face. Normally Zelda reigns supreme, but Chrono Trigger going berserk on FFX yesterday (along with most of the other games in the bracket) seals it - SNES games are here to fuck up your shit. The SNES games this year are an insane 18-3 up to this point, and the three that have lost looked great or lost to another SNES game. FFVI already looked killer in its first two matches, and I have little doubt it’s going to look killer today as well. FFVI vs. Wind Waker is no longer the debatable match in this division. Now it’s FFVI vs. FFVII... Final Fantasy VI with 60% Guest’s Analysis - whatisurnameplz Ok, FFVI wins, let’s talk about why. -CT is getting near 65% on FFX as I write this (11:15AM EST). Without SFF it could be as low as 60%, but that’s still impressive regardless. -Melee, the GameCube’s premier game, is below 55% on KHII. Based off of GOTD x-stats, Melee should be winning with 58.56% of the vote. For comparison, Twilight Princess got 57.1% on Kingdom Hearts II in Game of the Decade -Based off of Spring 2004 results, Final Fantasy VI is right below Chrono Trigger in terms of strength. -In the same contest, FFVI barely lost to A Link to the Past, a game that is far stronger than Wind Waker and gets at least 60% on it before SFF. Finally, we have results from this year’s contest: R1 FFVI beats Assassin’s Creed II with 77.03% Wind Waker beats Pokemon X/Y with 72.6% R2 FFVI beats Paper Mario: The Thousand Year Door with 66.94% Wind Waker beats Star Wars: Knights of the Old Republic with 63.25% Resident Evil 4 got 58.87% on Paper Mario (N64) in Round 1. If you peg TTYD at the same strength as its N64 prequel, FFVI beats RE4 with 59.81%. Can Wind Waker do that? It barely got 63% on KotOR, which couldn’t even break 60% on Xenogears. For FFVI to beat Wind Waker, Thousand Year Door would have to get above 44.98% on KotOR. Honestly, would anyone be surprised if TTYD won that match outright? If Oblivion = KotOR and the entire Mario RPG series is the same strength, TTYD, wins with 54.43%. TTYD probably gets a little lower than that, but I’d say it definitely wins that match. Based off of that, Wind Waker beats TTYD with 60.23% before SFF, which only makes it slightly stronger than RE4, and FFVI wins with 58.44%. I’ll make my prediction a little lower than that since Zelda 1v1 has always been strong, and very few games have managed to beat it 1v1: -Mario 3 beat Zelda 1 in 2004 -Chrono Trigger beat ALttP in 2004 -FF7 beat OoT in 2004 -Brawl beat TP in 2010 This makes the best Zelda game (Majora’s Mask) still undefeated 1v1, btw :D Final Fantasy VI – 57.95% Crew Consensus: FF finally gets one over on Zelda --- Moltar Status: hype Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
whoa, we believe --- add the c and back away iphonesience |
These picks aren't even very high! 57% is what FF6 is already projected to get based on GotD stuff! --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
everyone has ZELDAFEAR like I said, 60% on Zelda 1-on-1 would be unprecedented territory (talking about the Zelda games that matter, so don't bring up Skyward Sword or something) --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif (edited 11/29/2015 8:30:43 PM)report |
there's only so high you can go before TTYD and WW become weirdly debatable! but yeah I believe --- add the c and back away iphonesience |
Division 2: Round 3 - Match 100 – (3) Super Smash Bros. for Wii U vs. (2) Final Fantasy VII Moltar’s Analysis Super Smash Bros. for Wii U Round 1 - 79.05% vs Planescape: Torment Round 2 - 54.89% vs Mass Effect Final Fantasy VII Round 1 - 84.07% vs Journey Round 2 - 78.21% vs Halo So yeah, FF7 is looking like a monster again, putting up a better number on Halo than OoT did against Suikoden 2, which sounds crazy. Meanwhile, Smash 4 struggled with Mass Effect, a game that actually did end up lower in the stats than the original Halo back in 2010. Now Halo has had reason to drop since then, but all signs indicate that this should be another big victory for FF7. Smash 4 is nowhere near Melee in strength, unless you think Mass Effect can hang with KH2 or something (it can't). Seems like it should be a 70% performance for FF7, even though I have a hard time seeing a Smash game get blown out like that. Moltar’s Bracket: Final Fantasy VII Moltar’s Prediction: Final Fantasy VII - 70% Transience’s Analysis FF7's path is so frustrating. an art game, an FPS and now a Wii U game. How can we get a read on FF7 when it keeps getting these games that have a reason to suck? FF7 probably doubles Mass Effect at the very least; there's something about Smash vs. FF7 and if this gets the right match picture, Smash 4 could overperform. But Smash isn't the series that it used to be on this website; you can see KH2 getting above 45% on Melee now which puts it under Twilight Princess. Can FF7 push for 70% here? Probably. I won't go that high but it's very possible. Another possibility: FF7 is the biggest rally target in contest history. If that Smash board gets involved, Smash 4 could do better. I could see those Melee nuts voting for FF7 out of spite just because they're competitive jerks. transience's prediction: FF7 with 68.44% Leonhart’s Analysis Let’s put Smash 4’s performance last round into perspective. It’s essentially worth 55% on Super Mario Galaxy 2 based on its win over Mass Effect. Super Metroid got 60% on Super Mario Galaxy 1. Even if you’re being very generous and setting Galaxy 1 equal to Galaxy 2 (spoilers they’re not equal), it still loses easily to Super Metroid. Melee is currently getting 55% on Kingdom Hearts II, so anyone who was expecting Smash 4 to be Brawl Jr. was clearly mistaken at this point. Smash 4 will have a certain level of default strength simply because it’s Smash, but being a Wii U game still hurts it a lot. Final Fantasy VII has been rolling so far and looks to be back close to “old form.” I expect it to put on a beating so massive here that people will be calling for SFF! Leonhart’s Vote: Final Fantasy VII Leonhart’s Prediction: Final Fantasy VII with 73.75% --- Moltar Status: hype Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
Kleenex’s Analysis ...but FFVII hasn’t missed a step either. It massacred both its first two opponents and will very likely do the same here. Melee already dropped the ball in a major way against FFX yesterday, and Smash U got exposed by Mass Effect last round as well. Smash U looks to maybe be on par with Galaxy 1 at best, and that’s nowhere near a resurgent FFVII. Today is going to be all about FFVI and FFVII trading blows with their respective punching bags in an effort to win the honor of being called the favorite next round. Between that and Chrono Trigger/Melee, I’m really looking forward the the start of the division finals, and I’m glad these two matches are going to be saved from potential Undertale silliness fudging the results. Final Fantasy VII with 65% Guest’s Analysis - spooky At this point it would seem as if even Melee would get destroyed here, because somehow Old Square has been far more impressive than generic Nintendo stuff. Freakin' Final Fantasy VII more than tripled Halo: Combat Evolved while on the other hand we have Smash U just 55-45ing Mass Effect, so yeah Smash is totally screwed here, and badly too. We can actually expect Final Fantasy VII to roughly double this LOL-worthy Smash game. Even if it doesn't, a % in the 60s isn't unrealistic. spooky's Prediction: Final Fantasy VII with 65% Crew Consensus: Smash gets smashed --- Moltar Status: hype Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
man I'm kind of amazed people are only going 65% for FFVII people are watching CT get 65% on FFX right now, aren't they --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
Wow, no one took Wind Waker? SNES RPG overriding ZELDA, huh --- satoru iwata |
There was literally no reason to ever take Wind Waker. That was a crazy person pick. I mean unless you thought FFX would beat FFVI or something. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif (edited 11/29/2015 9:49:31 PM)report |
I didn't! But I'm sure there were some people willing to go there. I do think Wind Waker will look okay in its loss, though. I don't think it's too far off from MM. --- satoru iwata |
I've
never had that much respect for Wind Waker. I've always thought it was
the weak link (no pun intended) among the Zelda games in this contest. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
kleenex cliffhanger had me on the edge of my seat --- http://myanimelist.net/profile/angryaria <Die the death>! <Sentence to death>! <Great equalizer is the death>!! |
I
don't think FF7 is unreal this year like CT is. I don't see CT perform
well and just add the difference between the games in previous years and
assume that FF7 will be unreal. I'll do that with FF6 but not FF7. if I did, I'd be hyping FF7 > OOT like crazy --- xyzzy |
It's not even that. It's that Smash 4 isn't very strong at all. It's probably at Galaxy 1's level and that might be being generous, and we just saw Super Metroid 60/40 Galaxy. not to mention if FFVII "only" gets 65% that would suggest Smash 4 is at a higher level than most FF games and I'm not willing to go there with it --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif (edited 11/29/2015 10:04:02 PM)report |
yeah
that's fair. I dunno, we'll see. like I said in my writeup, I don't
feel that we get a good read on FF7 until FF6 and even that is suspect. --- xyzzy |
Yeah in hindsight 65% is probably low but I don't really put a ton of effort into the percentages when I write these! --- http://i.imgur.com/RHvCiY3.png |
listen we can't all be first place in the accuracy challenge actually I guess we could be but whatever --- http://i.imgur.com/RHvCiY3.png |
LeonhartFour posted... It's not even that. round 3 hasn't been kind to you! --- xyzzy |
I told you this contest hates me apparently the hate only intensifies the longer this contest goes along oh well at least FFVI is sucking too --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
yeah I'm not pleased, I hope it breaks 55% at least that's not a bad result either. it's just not doing CT-esque things --- xyzzy |
Yeah, beating Wind Waker is a fine performance. Beating any of the big five Zelda games is a good win. FFVI was never going to beat CT anyway, but yeah. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
FF6
was boring, especially the story. Sure Kefka was interesting, otherwise
it was just Star Wars ep 4. Not that that is a bad story, but it's not
even like it was influenced by it, they copied it. It was a very
eyerolling game. --- FC: 3866-9130-9664 PM me if you add me for Pkmn XY |
FF4 is the Star Wars game man, not 6 --- xyzzy |
ff7 follows the hero's journey fairly well too... --- http://myanimelist.net/profile/angryaria <Die the death>! <Sentence to death>! <Great equalizer is the death>!! |
