GameFAQs Contests
Best. Game. Ever. Contest Analysis Crew - Part 3
Well,
I said all along that whoever won Sonic 2/Portal 2 won the fourpack,
but I figured there'd be some question about it after Sonic 2 didn't
look that great and UC2 blew out Walking Dead. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
Mr Lasastryke posted... thought sonic 2 > uncharted 2 was obvious, but about 60% of the participants didn't even have sonic 2 winning its first match, so... >_> You were obviously lucky. --- Ole, ole, ole, ole. Ole! Ole! (Accents and inverted !-marks missing) On a bet with three other users on if a certain girl genie will be in Smash; I say no. |
i was lucky because i correctly predicted a result? --- Geothermal terpsichorean ejectamenta |
sonic 2/portal 2 was like 53/47. let's not call it obvious. --- xyzzy |
that
was the point of the post. at first i THOUGHT it was obvious, but when i
saw relatively few people siding with sonic 2 in its FIRST match i
figured "oh, maybe this match isn't all that obvious." --- Geothermal terpsichorean ejectamenta (edited 11/22/2015 5:25:17 PM)report |
Mr Lasastryke posted... that was the point of the post. at first i THOUGHT it was obvious, but when i saw so few people siding with sonic 2 in its FIRST match i figured "oh, maybe this match isn't all that obvious." Hence, you were obviously lucky! --- Ole, ole, ole, ole. Ole! Ole! (Accents and inverted !-marks missing) On a bet with three other users on if a certain girl genie will be in Smash; I say no. |
... i still don't get it? why am i lucky for correctly predicting sonic 2 > portal 2? are you saying "thinking sonic 2 vs. uncharted 2 is an obvious match is extremely stupid so your sonic 2 > portal 2 prediction couldn't have been anything but sheer luck"? >_> --- Geothermal terpsichorean ejectamenta |
when a match is that close it is definitely luck to get it right --- Remember, we are eternal - all this pain is an illusion http://i.imgur.com/Qs9x1gS.png |
Mr Lasastryke posted... ... i still don't get it? why am i lucky for correctly predicting sonic 2 > portal 2? No, you were just lucky the match was obvious to you when it wasn't--you still got the points, however. --- Ole, ole, ole, ole. Ole! Ole! (Accents and inverted !-marks missing) On a bet with three other users on if a certain girl genie will be in Smash; I say no. |
ok, that's fair. wouldn't say a 53% win is that close, though. this wasn't frog/master chief. --- Geothermal terpsichorean ejectamenta |
this is a hype post for tonight's write-ups --- Moltar Status: hype Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
oh boy I don't really know what to think of tonight but i'm fairly confident in my pick for sonic 2/uncharted 2 --- sig pssssssssssst - http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/568795-soccer-challenge |
Oh yeah, I'm supposed to do the guest write-up on Mario3/Pokemon. Let's quickly get it sent. --- PaulG235 "Ike and Ash & Co. saw a Yoshi and didn't catch it." - Mer telling us his dream. |
i was going to recommend that Mario 3/RBY be the last one you posted but then Undertale happened --- add the c and back away iphonesience |
Division 3: Round 2 - Match 73 – (1) Super Mario Bros. 3 vs. (8) Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow/Green Version Moltar’s Analysis Super Mario Bros. 3 Round 1 - 84.17% vs Age of Empires II: The Age of Kings Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow/Green Version Round 1 - 68.34% vs Tetris O H B O Y H B O Y This was by far the most anticipated match of the contest before it started. The winner here could potentially go deep in the bracket, so a lot is riding on it. And then a little game called Undertale got in the way. Gonna keep this short because there’s plenty to read below, but basically this match plays out one of two ways. GAMEFAQS – Based on the contest trends so far, I’d actually give the slight edge to Mario here. RBY couldn’t rock Tetris and GSC kind of just rolled over to SSBM. Pokemon hasn’t looked all that dominant here, while old-school stuff like Mario has been rocking it. Pokemon still has a great shot, but the contest trends favor Mario. GIRLFAQS – Now if the Undertale supporters from tumblr and other social media sites show up, then Pokemon should be considered the favorite. This is going to be a close match either way, and even if SMB3 is up with 60%, that can disappear fast if a big Undertale rally happens. We saw the spillover effect last round from Undertale, where Life is Strange and Animal Crossing, two series that are hot on tumblr, also benefitted greatly. Well, Pokemon is another tumblr darling, so that could be enough to swing the pendulum. It’s a 50/50 guess at this point as to what will happen, but I’m going to go with the latter scenario. Moltar’s Bracket: Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow Moltar’s Prediction: Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow – 51% Transience’s Analysis Here was my reasoning for picking Mario 3 in my bracket: Super Mario Bros. 3 is video game royalty. If there's a more respected video game in this contest, I don't know what it is. I think most people will agree that Mario 3 is the absolute zenith of 2d platformer. They proved the concept in Mario 1 and then got everything right in 3. Lots of powerups, tons of diversity, great levels, a good difficulty.. I mean, I don't actually like Mario 3 that much but you have to give it its props. Pokemon has to overcome that. Yeah, it's got the nostalgia vote, but doesn't Mario 3 have the exact same thing? I do have a concern that Mario 3 may have aged out, but other older games have looked OK. Mario 3 seems like it'll be safe. When we talk about the literal best game ever, Super Mario Bros. 3 fits that bill. Pokemon Red/Blue? You won't even get fans of that series to admit that it belongs in the conversation. Even modern Mario fans will give 3 its due. Since then, Mario has looked pretty decent while I don't think Pokemon has really been all that great. That 68% or whatever against Tetris wasn't very inspiring and GSC just laid down to Melee even before anything rally-related. RBY has been able to do some things in other contests but it's all been in fourways and against newer games. It hasn't had to face a Mario 64 or a LTTP or a Mario 3. I think Mario 3 might just be naturally stronger than Pokemon, but if not, I trust in the hierarchy. Mario doesn't go down to Pokemon, not with the site shrinking and people more or less reverting to how they felt in 2004. Now we have this rally to contend with, and any person that knows Tumblr knows that they're going to side with Pokemon. GirlFAQs, etc. If this goes crazy, Pokemon might end up 60/40ing Mario or worse. Mario World went down hard to Animal Crossing of all things so it's hard to give Mario 3 any credit against Pokemon. --- Moltar Status: hype Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
But you know what? Writing that convinced me. Screw that, I'm going down with the ship. Give me kuribo's shoe or give me death! transience's prediction: Super Mario Brothers goddamn 3 with 50.50% Leonhart’s Analysis In Game of the Decade, a lot of people were hyped by the potential “Metal Gear Solid” gauntlet that had MGS2, 3, and 4 all in the same division. It would be interesting to see how they stack up to each other, we thought! In the end, we never got to see a single MGS vs. MGS match because of Shadow of the Colossus’s Cinderella run. This year, there was hype surrounding this potential “Mario gauntlet” and whether or not R/B/Y could run the gauntlet. If it couldn’t do that, at least we would have an idea of how the Mario games stacked up to each other! It would be fun! And once again, something threatens to encroach upon the gauntlet, this time the seemingly imminent Undertale rally and the overflow effect it’ll have on this match due to the 4 matches per day format. I suppose this is good news for my bracket since I have Pokemon going to the finals and it’ll presumably benefit by being joined at the hip with Undertale this round and next. Who knows! It might even be able to overthrow Undertale head-to-head if enough Tumblrers decide they can’t betray Pokemon or something! But my heart, it wants Mario 3 to win. Perhaps I invited doom upon this contest by attempting to reverse jinx R/B/Y by picking it to go to the finals, and this is my punishment for tempting fate. If so, I am deeply sorry, everyone! I didn’t fully realize what the consequences of my actions would be! Hopefully the Undertale rally will be a little slow to start up so we can at least get an idea of how the match might have gone down otherwise. Leonhart’s Vote: Super Mario Bros. 3 Leonhart’s Prediction: Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow/Green with 52.75% Kleenex’s Analysis November 23rd, 2015 - The Day the Contest Died. I’m not particularly excited about today’s matches. I wasn’t thrilled about how things went down last round, and I’m equally disenchanted with how I think things are going to turn out today. I don’t have anything against Undertale personally (I’ll play it soon I promise), I just never cared for the idea of biased selection of people from one particular fandom mass voting in one match then leaving until it shows up against. I didn’t like it with Draven and I didn’t like it here. While the rally cap of Undertale is not nearly as high as Draven’s was, I expect the masses will show up again and I’m going to be taking that into account with all four matches today. Which is why I’m talking about this so much for a match that doesn’t involve Undertale. If you cast aside any kind of rally, Mario 3 definitely looked much better than Pokemon last round. I would easily have taken it here if all things remained even. I actually don’t think it would have been particularly close (like 55-45 ‘not close’, for the record). But that was then, and this is now. If we get a large influx of Undertale voters like we did last round, they’re going to heavily favor Pokemon over Mario and given how much those trends whacked up the other 3 matches last round, I think it’s enough to turn the tide against Mario. Perhaps this is all part of some sick troll attempt to barely keep my disaster of a bracket alive as long as possible. Pokemon Red/Blue with 51% --- Moltar Status: hype Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
Guest’s Analysis - paulg235 I didn't put much thought into who would win this match pre-contest, as I picked Pokémon Red/Blue to win in a fairly easy manner and never looked back. In retrospect, I should've paid more attention to the seeding (An 8 seed to Mario 3's 1), but didn't. And after their first round performances, even though Tetris isn't really a weak game, it holding Pokémon below 69% is a bit worrisome. Could you see Mario 3 performing that poorly against Tetris? I can't. Despite this, I expected the match to be a close one and figured Pokémon could catch a rally if it stays close near the end of the day. It had (could still have) a chance to be one of the best matches of the contest. Then Undertale happened a day later and Super Mario World lost updates to Animal Crossing: New Leaf of all games thanks to the Tumblr rallies. Chances are those rallies will return, and that is going to be SMB3's kryptonite. Pokémon should be able to take this and it wouldn't surprise me if this gets ugly for Mario. Winner - Pokémon Red/Blue with 52.71% My Vote - Pokémon Red/Blue Crew Consensus: Pokefear? More like rallyfear for most of us --- Moltar Status: hype Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
Give me kuribo's shoe or give me death! The most beautiful line I have ever read in these analyses. I join the cause! --- Ole, ole, ole, ole. Ole! Ole! (Accents and inverted !-marks missing) On a bet with three other users on if a certain girl genie will be in Smash; I say no. |
thank you tranny for preventing crew curse --- The only ray of light in my life is raytan7585. when thinking of Krystal, does GMUN's pants get overcrowded? ~ GMUN |
shoulda crew cursed this shit --- add the c and back away iphonesience |
Anyways tranny, consider yourself sigged. --- Give me kuribo's shoe or give me death! - transcience Mario 3 > Pokemon R/B/Y/G - Vote quality over nostalgia! |
Division 3: Round 2 - Match 74 – (12) Sonic the Hedgehog 2 vs. (4) Uncharted 2: Among Thieves Moltar’s Analysis Sonic the Hedgehog 2 Round 1 - 53.17% vs Portal 2 Uncharted 2: Among Thieves Round 1 - 66.88% vs The Walking Dead: A Telltale Games Series Well, I have Portal 2 here and did say that the winner from that would advance here, so- Billy: Hey Moltar! Moltar: Oh hey everyone, look who it is. It’s Jimmy, the Casual Bracketmaker! Billy: It’s Billy… Moltar: Sure whatever. So what’s up, thoughts on this match? Billy: Uncharted is awesome! Drake is so cool! The game is really strong and has a two seed! I think it’s going to win. Moltar: Whoa there, son. Uncharted may have the seed advantage, but it doesn’t look to be that strong. Sure, it beat down a very weak game in Walking Dead, but most would say that Sonic or even Portal could do better. Billy: Really? Moltar: Yep, also with Sonic, you have to remember that old games have beaten newer games on a regular basis. Uncharted isn’t strong enough on this site to overcome that. Billy: So Sonic is going to win? Moltar: That’s what I think! Billy: Dang, the other kids on the playground are going to be upset about that. Moltar: Dude I’ve known you for like 10 years how are you still a kid? Billy: … Moltar: … Billy: Thanks Moltar, and now I know! Moltar: And knowing is only half the battle! Moltar’s Bracket: Portal 2 Moltar’s Prediction: Sonic the Hedgehog 2 – 55% Transience’s Analysis Sonic 2 wins because it's old. I'm not sure how the tumblr crew feels though. A lot of people will assume that Sonic wins it because it's more girl-y and oh god sonic fanfiction is about to invade our site, but I dunno. These people are like 16. Sonic hasn't been relevant in over a decade. Sonic 2 is going to be older than the majority of the people coming to vote. Uncharted is much more in line with them since it was released, you know, this millenium. But it's hard to bank on this so I'll back Sonic. Last of Us is decent strength-wise but it only ever looked good because FPS games just blow on this website now. Uncharted 2 looked okay but it beat Walking Dead and every other 2012 game has looked like hot garbage. Portal 2 probably beats Uncharted 2 so I'll go with Sonic comfortably here. transience's prediction: Sonic 2 with 55.11% --- Moltar Status: hype Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
Leonhart’s Analysis It’s kind of weird that this match has gotten lost in the shuffle, having to share the poll with Mario vs. Pokemon and the Undertale rally. This was a highly debated 4-pack pre-contest. Sonic 2 struggled early but eventually managed to put away Portal 2. Uncharted 2 put a beatdown on The Walking Dead, but that was a 2012 game and we’ve seen all of those flop hard. If Tumblr weren’t involved, I’d still expect Sonic 2 to win at this point. This feels a little bit like KH2/TLOU part 2, where all we learned was that The Walking Dead was just really weak and the older game prevailed. Uncharted 2 still has a chance though because Sonic 2 is hardly a juggernaut. It was nearly a black eye on the otherwise mostly sterling record old games had against new games last round. With Tumblr being involved, I still lean toward Sonic 2. The game may be too old for a lot of Tumblr to know anything about, but they still know who Sonic is. If yaoi and furry fanfiction is what appeals to GirlFAQs, then Sonic is right up their alley! I can’t see Uncharted having more traction there than Sonic does, even if the game itself is unfamiliar to them. But then again, I’m making complete blind guesses here, so who knows! Leonhart’s Vote: Uncharted 2: Among Thieves Leonhart’s Prediction: Sonic the Hedgehog 2 with 52.05% Kleenex’s Analysis I don’t think any kind of Undertale shenanigans really affect the outcome of this match. As much as I think Sonic still sucks, Uncharted probably sucks more. I suspect that the Tumblr crown would prefer Sonic in this case anyway, so really it just makes Sonic win more than it was already going to. I’ll probably just leave this writeup at that because there’s not much else to say here and the outcome of this match doesn’t matter at all in the grand scheme of things. Sonic the Hedgehog 2 with 57% Guest’s Analysis - Magmortar Well, my thoughts on this match have changed considerably as the contest goes on. At first I figured Uncharted 2 was probably still weak, Nathan Drake struggled to beat fucking Pac-Man two years ago (yes games =/= characters...usually), and Uncharted 2 itself has lost to Halo. (a series that is one of the biggest flops in this entire contest) Sonic 2 was an old game, a Noble Niner's glory days at that! Easy. Time for some pie. Then Sonic 2 flopped, Uncharted 2 impressed and the realization set in that Uncharted 2 didn't have to be GOOD to win, it merely had to be less bad than Sonic 2 was. Sonic games are not good in these things. They really aren't! Do I think Mega Man X does better than 53% on a game whose big character lost to Crash Bandicoot? (and boy, would I love to say that's not a terrible thing!) You better bet your ass I think it does. Honestly I think Sonic 1 probably does better too. Then Undertale happened and that gave me some faith in Sonic 2 again. Tumblr likes Sonic! Should that get behind Undertale again the spillover is probably going to work in Sonic's favor, Uncharted 2 probably isn't laid to waste though because it's a very popular, respected game (just not on this site), and it definitely looked better than Sonic 2 in round 1. I just can't...see a way you can toy around with that Portal 2 match and see anything GOOD come out of Sonic. I normally don't pick against my bracket but you know what? I'm picking Not Sonic. Not by much though because RALLIES (which should benefit Uncharted if Fallout gets one...!) Magmortar's Prediction: Uncharted 2 with 50.53% Crew Consensus: Sonic doesn't sweep, but is the favorite here --- Moltar Status: hype Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
I wonder which match is going to be like a 70-30 romp --- xyzzy |
Nathan
Drake beating Pac-Man was a huge accomplishment for the character.
Prior to that, he lost to CATS and The Boss, the latter as a 2-seed. And I'm pretty sure if Tumblr rallies, Sonic 2 is gonna blow away Uncharted 2, since Tumblr loves Sonic, I think. (It'd probably win without Tumblr too, IMO) --- Give me kuribo's shoe or give me death! - transcience Mario 3 > Pokemon R/B/Y/G - Vote quality over nostalgia! (edited 11/22/2015 7:49:38 PM)report |
all four matches might be under 60% for the first time! |
Sonic definitely falls in line with tumblr tastes. Or at least it doesn't go against them as much as Uncharted. --- Cranky's Advice - "git gud" Oh yea, I guess raytan won. |
Mario 3 gonna stomp 58% --- satoru iwata |
Had SMB3 in my bracket... But I'll gladly sacrifice my bracket for our new Undertale overlords. (it's not like it was gonna win jack shit anyway) (edited 11/22/2015 8:12:37 PM)report |
Division 3: Round 2 - Match 75 – (3) Fallout 3 vs. (6) Undertale Moltar’s Analysis Fallout 3 Round 1 - 72.55% vs Life is Strange Undertale Round 1 - 50.95% vs Mass Effect 3 Remember how I said that pre-contest, SMB3/RBY was the biggest match? Well that was before this one came into fruition. Again, this comes down to two scenarios. GAMEFAQS – Fallout 3 would curbstomp Undertale if there was no funny business. It was almost getting doubled by the weakest Mass Effect game until the rally. Fallout 3 is not only strong, but also helped by Fallout 4 being the most relevant new game on the site right now. If this was Round 1, Fallout 3 would easily win this with over 70% and we’d have no rally to worry about now. GIRLFAQS – From what I’ve seen, tumblr and other fansites are ready this time. It took them about 8 hours to do a 10K vote swing last round against Mass Effect 3. This time, we’re looking to get 24 hours of rally-fueled Undertale, and that could be the difference maker here. There are other things that could happen, like Undertale starts getting rallied, but ends up just falling short or running out of steam, but I believe it’s all-or-nothing here. Either Fallout wins easily because the rally doesn’t gain traction, or Undertale starts strong and Fallout 3 chases it all day. Like I said before, it’s a 50/50 shot of either scenario happening, so I’m going to just guess we’re getting rallies. Moltar’s Bracket: Fallout 3 Moltar’s Prediction: Undertale – 51% Transience’s Analysis oh god oh god oh god You can look at this any number of ways: - Undertale needed to turn a ~61/39 result around against Mass Effect 3 which is a garbage game and Fallout 3 s on another level. They might need to turn another 5-10k votes to take this. Advantage: Fallout 3 - Undertale fans are going to be ready and mobilized from day 1. There are rally topics already up. This isn't going to be a comeback so much as a landslide from the start. Advantage: Undertale - Unlike Mass Effect, Fallout 4 is the current biggest video game on earth. That game pre-sold 12 million copies and has tons of fans in tons of places. What happens if there's a similar effort on the r/fallout? I think we can safely say that Fallout 3 is naturally stronger than Undertale - if its fans can even slightly fend off the Undertale rally, it could win easily. Advantage: Fallout 3 - Remember the jump in competition from Draven/Jak/Chie to Draven/Mega Man X/Ryu? We all laughed at Jak/Chie and then Mega Man X/Ryu got absolutely flattened when the subreddit was ready to strike. It was one of the most shocking results of all time just due to how bad they got beat down. That situation is similar here - Undertale, if it can start strong, might just crush Fallout 3. Advantage: Undertale --- Moltar Status: hype Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
Undertale
is exploding in popularity right now. It was the top selling game in
October on Steam in NA and that word of mouth keeps traveling. I think
it's probably going to do at least as well as it did vs. ME3 even
without the rally just because of the underdog status it has right now. I
guess you could say it has DETERMINATION. A lot of people saw that
rally as insane and usually like to get on board with crazy things like
that. I think any result in this match is possible but I'll go with the
proven rally over the one that's yet to show me. I mean how can we beat our tumblr master: hi im lazy im yuu but you can call me yuuka or yuyu ! she/they pronouns im 14 and my b-day is 15 august feel free to ask for my LINE / skype ! i post a lot of anime but ocasionally aesthetic and a lot of nice and cute clothes i really like soramafu so feel free to talk about them and utaites with me i draw and sometimes sing! i post a lot of art on my twitter @yuuchi_x my faves r rin and eli from love live! transience's prediction: Undertale with 55.89% Leonhart’s Analysis In pretty much every contest where we’ve had something like this happen, I’ve resisted succumbing to the allure of picking the bandwagon/rally, whether it was L-Block or Draven. I always wanted to believe GameFAQs would prevail against the evil outside invaders! This time though, I’m just going to jump right in with both feet. I know Fallout 4 is the latest and greatest big thing right now, but I’ve always been kind of dubious about how strong Fallout 3 really is. It dropped down to 60/40 against Life is Strange after it had been 80/20ing it once the rally kicked in, and Life is Strange wasn’t even the object of the rally. Plus, Undertale made a huge vote swing in only about 7 hours. If the rally kicks in early (as it should), I can’t see Fallout 3 being able to hold its head above water for 24 hours. The one big thing in FO3’s corner is that it probably has a pretty significant natural strength advantage over Undertale. Mass Effect 3 was nearly doubling it before the rally kicked in, after all! But the gap between FO3 and Undertale pales into comparison to what the gap was between Link (or even Snake) and Draven, and we saw what happened there! I think the only way Fallout 3 wins is if the rally shows up too late to matter or doesn’t show up at all, but that’s kind of unlikely. It definitely can’t wait until more than halfway through the match this time, but the rallies are usually ready for round two (See: Draven/Jak/Chie vs. Draven/X/Ryu). Are you all ready for Mass Effect 3 to be top 5 in the final X-Stats? I know I am! Leonhart’s Vote: Fallout 3 Leonhart’s Prediction: Undertale with 54.45% --- Moltar Status: hype Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
Kleenex’s Analysis Fallout 3 is a much tougher opponent than Mass Effect 3 was. Undertale is going to need a stronger rally than it got last round in order to advance, and I think it’s going to get it. Generally, as a mass rally continues through the rounds, it gets stronger and stronger. This is how it has always worked. Each time, visibility of the contest increases to the outside voters and the rallying get started earlier and harder, giving the opposing game less time to pad a big lead before the votes start coming in. Fallout 3 has some nice advantages in its corner that Mass Effect 3 did not. For one, it’s way more liked. Fallout 4 is still fresh and that probably helps too. Despite this, I still think it’s going to lose. It’s not a universally loved thing like Ocarina or Mario that would be harder to rally against. The nostalgia and general reverence aren’t there. I’ve seen some people try to downplay the Undertale rally after last round, but I don’t buy any of that. Pandora’s Box is opened again, and Fallout 3 isn’t the game to close it. Of course if Undertale doesn’t win, I’m sure there will be a whole bunch of “see I told you guys you were freaking out over nothing”. Undertale with 51% Guest’s Analysis - KP I signed up for this match and I barely know what to say about it! There's just so much random chance that can happen. Is there a rally? How early does it start? Is it as strong as last time? Stronger? I do think there will be some form of rally, although I'm very skeptical about it being as strong as last time. Tumblr is not as easy to get going as a reddit rally is. You can't just post one topic and have everyone view it right away - if the Undertale rally doesn't get reblogged by people with lots of followers, then it never happens. Plain and simple. And from what I can tell, there hasn't been any effort to mobilize a new rally whatsoever. I can't even tell if it's going to happen again - and even if it does, it might take a long time to happen, just like last round. And that won't fly this time around, because Fallout 3 is a very different beast from Mass Effect 3. Undertale did good to hold ME3 to like 64% naturally - if it had done any worse, the rally wouldn't have worked. Fallout 3 is going to be beating it a lot worse than 64%, especially considering this is right after the release of Fallout 4. EVERYONE is playing that game right now. Heck it might be pretty easy to counter-rally all things considered. Too many things need to line up for Undertale to win this. The rally needs to be stronger than last time, and start earlier, and Fallout 3 needs to not fight back with its own support. I don't think Undertale is going to be any naturally stronger than it was before, either - the early vote matters a lot more right now due to low votals and right now the early vote is staffed by people complaining that Rallies Ruin Contests. Undertale did good to advance in Round 1 but I think the ride ends here, and I don't think it'll ever really be in serious contention honestly. Fallout 4 - 60% Undertale - 40% Crew Consensus: The Crew is filled with determination --- Moltar Status: hype Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
KP I see right through you as Leon has pointed out, crew curses don't work if you do them on purpose --- xyzzy |
KP trying to not curse Undertale I see right through you (didn't even see tran's post, whoops) --- "Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything." (edited 11/22/2015 8:31:52 PM)report |
That was my legitimate analysis! I thought the Crew would be split on this one! --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
you can't fool me! --- xyzzy |
No
seriously! I even checked tumblr for stuff and couldn't find anything
new, just weeks-old posts about the last match. I also learned that
Takfloyd has a tumblr which is information I could've gone without. --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
I can't find anything either. I guess I'm not looking hard enough! (edited 11/22/2015 9:00:37 PM)report |
I
saw a few posts talking about it coming up. nothing focused but it's
kinda hard to be. that rally will be there, don't worry. the beginning
of the match might be legit though. --- xyzzy |
Fantastic job at avoiding all today's Curses, Crew! Mister Leon posted... The rallies are usually ready for round two (See: Draven/Jak/Chie vs. Draven/X/Ryu). Are you all ready for Mass Effect 3 to be top 5 in the final X-Stats? I know I am! Hot DARN I didn't even think of that. So Mass Effect is a lock to either make the Final Four of the actual bracket, or the Top Four of the final X-Stats. As silver linings go, that's a pretty cool one! --- Have you listened to this week's episode of The Show yet, buddy? board8.wikia.com | thengamer.com/xstats |
I can't wait to see how bad I undershot Mario World |
Division 3: Round 2 - Match 76 – (10) Final Fantasy VIII vs. (2) Super Mario World Moltar’s Analysis Final Fantasy VIII Round 1 - 60.68% vs Grand Theft Auto: Vice City Super Mario World Round 1 - 73.27% vs Animal Crossing: New Leaf Well FF8 is lucky. It’s one of the few FF games not to impress this contest, as it underperformed against GTA, which looked awful in other matches. Sure, Vice City might just be the only strong one, but when you’ve got other FF games getting big blowouts or winning matches people thought they wouldn’t, FF8 doesn’t look so hot in comparison. Which is why its lucky tumblr thinks its hot. If Undertale does end up getting rallied, I can see FF8 benefitting from it again and making Mario World not look all that great, just like in the Animal Crossing match. So yeah, with no interference, Mario World easily takes this with over 60%, but I smell an FF8 overperformance coming. I’d be surprised if it can make SMW sweat, but it’ll probably look decent in defeat here. Moltar’s Bracket: Super Mario World Moltar’s Prediction: Super Mario World – 58% Transience’s Analysis Mario World got destroyed by the Undertale rally and FF8 benefited. Is there something here? Well, I think there's more to it than that. Animal Crossing is the girliest game in the world and FF8's opponent was GTA which is about as anti-girl as you get. FF8's probably looking at a 60/40 match so it will need a significant bump to take this. Possible? Totally. All options are on the table at this point. I'm gonna back Mario World though. I think Vice City is the strongest game and other results have suggested that maybe FF8 isn't as bad as we think, but it was still 58/42 on a GTA game. Shenmue almost did that to GTA5! Freaking Shenmue! Shovel Knight almost did that to San Andreas too. Sorry, FF8, but I can only trust you so much. I'm not sold on the Mario games being as strong as everyone else but it should be comfortably above what looks like a low-tier FF game at this point. It might be below FF4/6/7/9/10 at this point. Crazy, huh? transience's prediction: Super Mario World with 60.67% Leonhart’s Analysis Hey, someone should tell the Undertale rally guy to get everyone to vote for FFVIII, too, because that’s an easier win for Undertale next round…! Actually, I’d rather Final Fantasy VIII overperform and look half decent in defeat here than get utterly crushed by Undertale next round, so whatever. I don’t really know what to expect from this match. Super Mario World did worse once the rally started and Final Fantasy VIII did better, but that doesn’t necessarily mean FFVIII can pull this off. Of course, I said I didn’t think Squall could beat Mario with Ganondorf in the poll in CBIX and he probably would have, so what do I know! Maybe my BELIEVE isn’t high enough! …Eh, I think Squall-like cynicism has set in after watching FFX, FFVIII, and MGS3 all lay eggs. I suppose I should temper my expectations a bit so I can be pleasantly surprised if FFVIII does win (a la Squall/Luigi) instead of hopelessly crushed if it flops yet again (a la FFX). I’m too old and jaded to keep picking wacky upsets anymore, I guess! Leonhart’s Vote: Final Fantasy VIII Leonhart’s Prediction: Super Mario World with 58.88% --- Moltar Status: hype Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
Kleenex’s Analysis Despite the Tumblrfolk seemingly rallying behind Final Fantasy VIII in last round’s takeover (which is weird in its own right, but I’d wager that was more anti-GTA anyway), the strength differential between FF8 and Mario World is way too large to matter. I think there’s definitely a chance Mario World looks relatively bad here, but its chances to drop this match are limited at best. Assuming things go as I suspect they will, Mario World will be the next roadblock in Undertale’s way and it might be one that’s too tough to overcome, but today should give some insight into that. Super Mario World with 64% Guest’s Analysis - tennisboy213 rallyfaqs etc ffviii 50.01% smw 49.99% Actual write-up: Uh, so there will almost certainly be an Undertale rally during this match. We saw last round that the rally fallout favored FFVIII against Vice City and Animal Crossing against Super Mario World. CONSPIRACY THEORY: The Undertale voters were supporting what they thought were the weaker games in the other three matches. So does that mean it will favor FFVIII against SMW? I don't think so. I think they were just anti-voting GTA. The Tumblr hierarchy could very well be (and probably is) Animal Crossing > SMW > FFVIII > GTA. Anyway, I don't think the rally will have too much of an effect on this match. And if it does, it's dificult to know which game they will side with. So I think it's best to ignore it for the prediction of this match. FFVIII was only getting 58% on Vice City before the rally started. With how bad the other two GTA games looked, that doesn't look good. Meanwhile, SMW was getting 84% on Animal Crossing: New Leaf pre-rally. That was around what was expected. I think coming in to the contest, I would expect SMW to score around 57% in this match. But with the underperformance of FFVIII against a GTA game, combined with the SNES dominace we've seen so far... (10) Final Fantasy VIII - 39.5% (2) Super Mario World - 60.5% Crew Consensus: It's Mario's world and FF8's gotta go --- Moltar Status: hype Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
Surprised crew isn't going higher with Mario World. I know there's tumblr-fear but FFVIII was against a game that's about as anti-tumblr as you can get, and it barely benfitted from the rally. --- Cranky's Advice - "git gud" Oh yea, I guess raytan won. |
yet it only got 60% on GTA! --- Cranky's Advice - "git gud" Oh yea, I guess raytan won. |
It would've gone higher if it had more time! It was averaging almost 65% once the rally started. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
I wouldn't be all that surprised if the rallied voters broke for Mario World against FFVIII lol |
Well, like I said, I don't expect Tumblr to favor FFVIII by any significant margin. Super Mario World is a game that's well before the time of Tumblr's target age group though. Mario in general isn't as big of a deal to them anymore. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
