11/20/2015 11:34:22 PM#301
fyi people should send the write-ups for tomorrow's matches sooner rather than later

because they might have to get posted earlier than usual
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Moltar Status: hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
whoo good thing I have the high CT pick
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11/20/2015 11:39:09 PM#304
pjbasis posted...
I didn't sign up for anything did I?


no
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Moltar Status: hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
how early do you need em?
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xyzzy
11/20/2015 11:47:49 PM#306
before noon would be nice
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Moltar Status: hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
Mega Man X still hanging on!
Metal Gear Solid 3: Snake Eater 69.5% 23621
Mother 3 30.5% 10364
TOTAL VOTES 33985

BioShock 61.43% 20725
Silent Hill 2 38.57% 13012
TOTAL VOTES 33737

Starcraft 74.49% 24716
Destiny 25.51% 8466
TOTAL VOTES 33182

Mass Effect 2 79.08% 26328
Zero Escape: Virtue's Last Reward 20.92% 6966
TOTAL VOTES 33294

Crew Predictions: 59/64

What Happened: MGS3 can't break 70% on a game never released in English and Mass Effect 2 barely outperforms Persona 4 on a Zero Escape game. Does anyone want to win this eightpack?

What Will Happen: Starcraft/Mass Effect 2 has gone from a no-brainer to at least a little bit interesting.

Crew Prediction Challenge: points

Leonhart: 59
Guest: 59
Moltar: 58
transience: 55
Kleenex: 54

Crew Accuracy Challenge: Kleenex gets MGS3, Moltar and Kleenex share Bioshock, Guest does the least worst on Starcraft and Leon gets ME2

Leonhart: 16
Moltar: 13
Kleenex: 12
Guest: 10.5
transience: 8.5
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xyzzy
My bracket is going to die today
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"I do because I can."
http://card.psnprofiles.com/1/Micer101.png
chrono trigger is going to straight up murder FFX holy shit
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The Mana Sword posted...
chrono trigger is going to straight up murder FFX holy shit


game of the decade contest small time next to the 90s contest
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satoru iwata
Ugh, there goes my bracket. I had Gold and Silver winning today.
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3DS FC: 4382 - 2449 - 5707 IGN: Anthony
ZFS posted...
The Mana Sword posted...
chrono trigger is going to straight up murder FFX holy shit


game of the decade contest small time next to the 90s contest


And yet Chrono Cross is gonna go deeper woot woot

That's what happens when the eventual champion isn't there to stop the Chrono Power!!!
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LongLiveraytan
chrono cross isn't going to the finals
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xyzzy
ct vs. cc finals I'm in
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pjbasis posted...
Master Moltar posted...
Silent Hill keeps getting characters into character battles because it's so iconic and important.


I feel like Pyramid Head is, in a way, even bigger than Silent Hill.


It's that character design. It stands out.

POOTERSS posted...
LeonhartFour posted...
You're overselling Batman's strength if you think MMX goes 68% there.


That could be true. Recent games have not looked great in this 2015 contest. I just think the original Half-Life would be weaker as well due to the overshadowing impact that Half-Life 2 has had on the original game.


Also, licensed games often do poorly. KotOR and Goldeneye have managed okay, but they seem like exceptions to me.
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FC 5026-4424-6331 -- Native Vivillon type: Polar
Still need Marine, Sun, Icy Snow, Monsoon, River, and Jungle
pjbasis posted...
And yet Chrono Cross is gonna go deeper woot woot


it's not getting past round 3
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you realize we're in round 2 right now

unless you're somehow not talking about one of the games winning in today's match for no reason
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I think he's saying that chrono cross will win another round and not that it'll go further than trigger? who knows
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xyzzy
or if you're talking about Majora's Mask (I honestly can't tell what game you're referring to CC going deeper than)

are you saying you have FFXII > MM

if so I propose Moltar go ahead and let you be the Guest for that match
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oh he means CC will go deeper than it did the previous contest

I guess that could technically be gleaned from what he said
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i've been mulling over that pjbasis post for some time and that makes the most sense to me, yes.
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Remember, we are eternal - all this pain is an illusion
http://i.imgur.com/Qs9x1gS.png
Even though the field is stronger is the main implication.

Also CC did marginally worse than paper Mario against wow.

What if pm is stronger than smrpg??? Hmmmmm?

Barn burner
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LongLiveraytan
pjbasis posted...
Even though the field is stronger is the main implication.

Also CC did marginally worse than paper Mario against wow.

What if pm is stronger than smrpg??? Hmmmmm?

Barn burner


It isn't.
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what if your father was your uncle
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Remember, we are eternal - all this pain is an illusion
http://i.imgur.com/Qs9x1gS.png
(he'd work at nintendo, probably)
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Remember, we are eternal - all this pain is an illusion
http://i.imgur.com/Qs9x1gS.png
More realistic than FFX > CT

BOOM HEADSHOT
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LongLiveraytan
Equally realistic at this point I'd say
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11/21/2015 1:36:42 PM#330
Division 2: Round 2 - Match 69 Ė (1) Final Fantasy VI vs. (8) Paper Mario: The Thousand-Year Door

Moltarís Analysis

Final Fantasy VI
Round 1 - 77.03% vs Assassin's Creed II

Paper Mario: The Thousand-Year Door
Round 1 - 51.87% vs Tales of Symphonia

OLDGAMEFEAR

FF6 is easily going to take this because like CT, it came out swinging in Round 1. Paper Mario isnít weak, as evidenced by it breaking 40% on RE4, but FF6 is a whole other beast. I also have doubts that TTYD is as strong as the original, especially after their respective R1 performances.

FF6 easily beats RE4 at this point, and based on the current contest trends, I think it should do very well here.

Moltarís Bracket: Final Fantasy VI

Moltarís Prediction: Final Fantasy VI Ė 65%



Transienceís Analysis

FF6 wins, of course. It's part of the beautiful SNES resurgence. (Is it a resurgence? Or did GOTD just blind us to something that's always been there? Food for thought.) GOTD x-stats suggest that Wind Waker would 61/39 TTYD before SFF and that's the game FF6 is looking to measure up to.

I think FF6 is a monster this year, possibly top 5 along with 2004 SNES darlings CT and LTTP. A fun little GameCube RPG isn't going to hang with an all-time game. Can FF6 push for the doubling? I think it can. I never look at Oracle predictions so I never know if I'm high or low on a game, but I'm going to guess that I go pretty high on FF6 by putting it in the high 60s. 70% would more or less prove that FF6 is going to be a real threat.

transience's prediction: Final Fantasy 6 with 68.33%



Leonhartís Analysis

As Iím typing this, Chrono Trigger is going to town on Dragon Quest VIII, and Final Fantasy X is gagging it up against Mega Man X, so the trend of SNES games being really strong compared to 2000s games seems to be continuing. Now itís Final Fantasy VIís turn. TTYD is probably decently strong since itís a Mario RPG game. I canít see FFVI throttling it the way it did against Assassinís Creed II or the way CT is doing to DQ8 right now. I feel like if it breaches the 70% mark here, anyone who picked Wind Waker next round can kiss that silly upset goodbye.

Leonhartís Vote: Paper Mario: The Thousand-Year Door

Leonhartís Prediction: Final Fantasy VI with 71.60%



Kleenexís Analysis

As much as it pains me to say, FF6 really killed it last round. Another benefactor of the all-power SNES boost, it should also do well today. Paper Mario is a much more robust opponent than Assassinís Creed II, make no mistake, but FF6 is a step and a half ahead of that game and it shouldnít have any trouble making quick work of it. This entire day is actually pretty boring, and is mostly going to be a FF6 vs. FF7 test. Unless Wind Waker goes berserk, that seems like the division finals to expect.

Final Fantasy VI with 65%



Guestís Analysis - Lopen



Crew Consensus: More FF domination
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Moltar Status: hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
11/21/2015 1:37:28 PM#331
Division 2: Round 2 - Match 70 Ė (5) Star Wars: Knights of the Old Republic vs. (4) The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker

Moltarís Analysis

Star Wars: Knights of the Old Republic
Round 1 - 53.65% vs Xenogears

The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker
Round 1 - 72.60% vs

Easy stuff for Zelda, which has just looked dominant so far. KOTOR struggled with Xenogears, so we know even a mid-tier strength Zelda can wipe the floor with it.

Moltarís Bracket: The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker

Moltarís Prediction: The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker Ė 64%



Transienceís Analysis

I never trust KOTOR. I'm always waiting for it to disappoint. Here's this Xbox/PC WRPG that seems to be more popular than Mass Effect. Would anyone take ME1 to get 47% on FF9? I wonder if people would even take Mass Effect 2 to get that sometimes.

KOTOR just seems like it could fold at any minute and if there's one kind of game that could take advantage of it, it's Zelda. Zelda has a knack for just destroying hopes and dreams. I'm seeing two big performances from both of our big series' and setting up a highly anticipated round 3. Wind Waker's gonna do things to KOTOR.

transience's prediction: Wind Waker with 66.11%



Leonhartís Analysis

KOTOR only ended up getting a little less than 54% on Xenogears last round, and Wind Waker laid down over 70% on Pokemon X/Y. I feel like KOTORís performance is better than it appears because of OLD GAMES, and Wind Wakerís isnít as good as it appears because new Pokemon sucks and Pokemon in general hasnít looked THAT great so far. Zelda still wins easily, of course, but I donít think itíll be the blowout I expect a lot of people predict it will be.

Leonhartís Vote: Knights of the Old Republic

Leonhartís Prediction: The Wind Waker with 59.97%



Kleenexís Analysis

Second up on the snoozer of a card today is Zelda vs. a game that is not Zelda. It shouldnít take much to convince you who is going to win this one. KOTOR did well (maybe?) to beat Xenogears, but Wind Waker looked really damn good last round. Every Zelda game did. Youíd think this site liked that series. Anyway, the real thing to look at with this match is how badly Wind Waker smashes KOTOR. If this gets really bad you can make a decent argument for an upset against FF6 next round. And for the sake of my bracket, I hope thatís the case!

Zelda: Wind Waker with 66%



Guestís Analysis - LinkMarioSamus

These may have been the two biggest GOTY 2003 candidates, but this is a site that loves its Zelda and so Wind Waker will win without a doubt. The only question is how well it does. I'm tempted to have Wind Waker go high after seeing KOTOR get "only" 54% on Xenogears, but then games in Xenogears's ilk have been performing well all contest.

Know what? Who cares. Wind Waker is my favorite Zelda, and I WILL pick it to break 60% at least!

Wind Waker with 63%


Crew Consensus: More Zelda domination
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Moltar Status: hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
Highest on FFVI and lowest on Wind Waker

Just as planned

also Guest was doing so good in round 1 on getting things in on time
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Leonhart, do you really think Pokemon X/Y would lose by that big of a margin to KOTOR?
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Ole, ole, ole, ole. Ole! Ole! (Accents and inverted !-marks missing)
On a bet with three other users on if a certain girl genie will be in Smash; I say no.
Do I think Pokemon X/Y is weak?

Yeah, I do.

Maybe Wind Waker SFF'd it, too. Who knows. New Pokemon sucks. R/S/E barely beat GTAIV and probably only did so because it was a day match. X/Y will be worse.
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Lopen's Official Guest Analysis:

Oh, crap, it's already that time of the round again? Honor code, I swear guys! FOUR MATCHES A DAY MAN I CAN'T HANDLE THIS SPEED.

Anyway yeah we look at the last round, and Final Fantasy VI sent ASSASSINO to the cleaners. SMRPG did well last round and Tales of Symphonia has proven to be no joke in past contests, so barring some sorta SFF I'd imagine it holds up fairly well here... well, within reason, anyway. FFVI is still kind of a beast so you know, temper those expectations a bit!

Lopen's Official Guest Prediction:
Final Fantasy VI with 60.33%
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
11/21/2015 1:50:50 PM#336
Division 2: Round 2 - Match 71 Ė (3) Super Smash Bros. for Wii U vs. (11) Mass Effect

Moltarís Analysis

Super Smash Bros. for Wii U
Round 1 - 79.05% vs Planescape: Torment

Mass Effect
Round 1 - 50.83% vs Super Mario Galaxy 2

Cloud

In

Smash

I mean Mass Effect had no chance before but now weíve got some Smash 4 hype going around and if you havenít seen Smash on hype then get ready.

Moltarís Bracket: Super Smash Bros. for Wii U

Moltarís Prediction: Super Smash Bros. for Wii U Ė 62%



Transienceís Analysis

I have no read on Smash 4 at all. It's a Wii U game so it probably bombs. It just got that hype Cloud trailer so it kills everything. It's several tiers below Melee. It's becoming this hilarious proving ground for 90s characters - Ryu, Cloud, Sonic, Mega Man... it just keeps going. This game feels like a GameFAQs wet dream but nobody plays games anymore and certainly not Wii U games. Is Smash 4 catering to Nintendo fans, new Nintendo fans or just Smash fans? I think there's a big difference between the three.

Mass Effect beat Galaxy 2 which is nice. Galaxy 2 feels like a Wii U game in terms of playrate and fandom though. Most average people just missed it. If Smash 4 is a fraud then Mass Effect could take advantage. Of course, Smash 4 is a literal Wii U game (sorry but the 3DS doesn't really count). I won't pick it to win, but if ME1 can keep it close? That will be fun. I'm just going to pull a percentage out of a hat.

transience's prediction: Smash 4 with 61.11%



Leonhartís Analysis

This should be an interesting gauge of Smash 4ís strength. Mass Effect 1 is a decently strong game, having pulled the upset of Galaxy 2 last round. If it had beaten Galaxy 1, I might be considering the upset again this round, but alas! I know Cloud got announced for Smash 4 a few days ago, but I have no idea how much impact thatíll have here. He wonít be in the match pic because Bacon is being boring and reusing round 1 pics, so too bad on that front! Smash 4 is the exception to the rule when it comes to Wii U games, but itíll still suffer for it somewhat, so I donít expect it to be anywhere near Meleeís level. Itíll still get plenty of votes just because itís Smash, and thatíll be enough to put up a decent showing here.

Leonhartís Vote: Mass Effect

Leonhartís Prediction: Super Smash Bros. for Wii U with 58.50%
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Moltar Status: hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
11/21/2015 1:50:55 PM#337
Kleenexís Analysis

Another foregone conclusion, hereís why this match could be potentially interesting - some dope name Cloud got included in Smash 4 since the first match it had. It this going to affect the game in anyway? Who knows! Maybe itíll affect FF7! That could be interesting seeing as those two games will face each other in round 3, right? RIGHT? Yeah I dunno, itís hard to make any of these four matches sound exciting. Mass Effect got lucky to snag a win from Galaxy 2 last round and unless you think Galaxy 2 does anything other than get crushed by Smash, this wonít be close. Moving along.

Smash Bros. Wii U with 67%



Guestís Analysis - spooky

Luckily for Smash Wii U, it belongs to the Smash series, because Smash and Zelda seem like the only franchises who're decently powerful by default if they're the main-line games to the series. Mass Effect's win last round really shouldn't be surprising at all, as it faced a modern Mario game. Unfortunately for Mass Effect, Smash is much, much bigger than modern Mario, even though Smash Wii U's peak strength is much lower than Melee/Brawl. Mass Effect shouldn't have problem breaking 40%, but that's really all it'll be able to do. If this were Mass Effect 2, it likely wins here, but Mass Effect? Nah, not happening.

spooky's Prediction: Smash Bros. Wii U with 58%


Crew Consensus: More Nintendo domination
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Moltar Status: hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
11/21/2015 1:52:30 PM#338
Division 2: Round 2 - Match 72 Ė (10) Halo: Combat Evolved vs. (2) Final Fantasy VII

Moltarís Analysis

Halo: Combat Evolved
Round 1 - 56.72% vs Minecraft

Final Fantasy VII
Round 1 - 84.07% vs Journey

This originally seemed to be a match between which game would get anti-voted more (obv halo), but now people seem to like FF7 again or something. Should put up big numbers here, especially if Last of Us could double a Halo game (and then get put into place by a Square game).

Moltarís Bracket: Final Fantasy VII

Moltarís Prediction: Final Fantasy VII Ė 74%



Transienceís Analysis

Oh my god. Has FF7 ever been set up to succeed like it has this year? COD4 gets 21% on Super Metroid, Halo 3 gets 33% on Last of Us which gets 40% on KH2 and Halo 1 struggles to get 55% on freaking Minecraft. I can't get any lower on FPS games. I'd be underground. FF7 probably goes for 75% here and might even aim for 80. I'm not going to take this result as proof of anything. Like Chrono Trigger, FF7 doesn't get a true match until round 3.

Let me instead talk about a Final Fantasy VII theory that I have.
So, they announced FF7 remake at E3. At the time, Nomura commented that we'd hear more about it in the winter. FF7r seems like a Sony/Square collab, or at the very least, Square seems to be supporting the hell out of the PS4.

There are two big events coming up. The first is The Game Awards, Geoff Keighley's annual show which celebrates the year in video games but is really just a veil for showing footage of upcoming video games. MGSV, Skyrim, Mass Effect 3, Dark Souls 2 -- all of these got announced at this event. The second is Playstation Experience, a new Sony specific event where it brings all of its games for fans to play and usually has a press conference attached. Last year, they announced FF7 for PS4 here, one of the more hilarious troll jobs that I've ever seen. If Final Fantasy VII remake is going to be shown this winter, I would bet on one of these two events.

The Game Awards are on December 3rd -- by my math, on the night of FF6/FF7. The Playstation Awards are the weekend of Dec 5/6, probably with a press conference on the 4th or 5th. That would be right before a potential CT/FF7 match.

A new FF7 trailer, maybe with actual gameplay, would be huge and game-changing. Cloud in Smash is a nice tease but won't affect the contest much outside of getting people to play Smash 4. FF7 remake footage though? That could put a scare into Ocarina if it's well-timed and looks good.

transience's prediction: Final Fantasy VII with 78.33%



Leonhartís Analysis

Currently, Kingdom Hearts II is 60/40ing The Last of Us, which doubled Halo 3 in round 1. That would project out to a tripling for KH2 over Halo 3. If Kingdom Hearts can do that to a Halo game, imagine what FFVII can do. Halo 1 will naturally be the strongest of the series (and probably by a long shot at this point), but it still only got 56% on Minecraft in round 1. This is probably the perfect opponent for a crazy Final Fantasy VII performance here. The same silly people who want to anti-vote FFVII are the same people who want to anti-vote Halo, so they will be at a loss as to what to do! As such, Final Fantasy VII will go All Lucky 7s and reduce Halo to nothingness! Iím probably even undershooting FFVIIís capabilities here!

Leonhartís Vote: Final Fantasy VII

Leonhartís Prediction: Final Fantasy VII with 77.77%
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Moltar Status: hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
11/21/2015 1:52:34 PM#339
Kleenexís Analysis

This match might not get any votes in the first five minutes. Haha, get it? Because the board vote for both these games is really bad! Yeah! Take that, popular things!

We all know Final Fantasy Always Winsô, so this is a match that, again, isnít in contention. The only caveat here is that, like with the first two match, if Smash 4 goes berserk, you could make a case for an early FF7 exit next round. That doesnít seem likely at this point, though. Besides, what kind of idiot would have that in their bracket anyway.

Final Fantasy VII with 71%



Guestís Analysis - Luster Soldier

FFVII had very impressive round 1 performance, showing it can still put up huge blowouts on weak games. The round 1 match wasn't very good for assessing the game's anti-vote factor since there wouldn't be a real reason to anti-vote FFVII against such a weak game. Round 2 wouldn't be very good either, as it faces a game that could have an even stronger anti-vote than itself. Round 3 against Smash 4 would be the earliest time to see if FFVII still gets a lot of anti-votes.

Halo has most certainly gotten weaker over the past few years, with the game expected to be a lightning rod for anti-votes against Microsoft as a whole because of their awful 2013 in terms of their PR and how they handled the Xbox One. Recent games in the Halo series have also been fairly subpar too, which could have weakened the series as well.

Luster Soldier's Bracket: Final Fantasy VII
Luster Soldier's Prediction: Final Fantasy VII - 74.28%



Crew Consensus: Double dose of Square domination
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Moltar Status: hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
I might be crazy going for 70% on FFVI but I feel like anyone going under 75% here for FFVII is kind of crazy, too!

I mean, KH2 is projected to triple Halo 3 based on today's results!
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(edited 11/21/2015 1:58:27 PM)report
LeonhartFour posted...
Do I think Pokemon X/Y is weak?

Yeah, I do.

Maybe Wind Waker SFF'd it, too. Who knows. New Pokemon sucks. R/S/E barely beat GTAIV and probably only did so because it was a day match. X/Y will be worse.


But 40% against Galaxy isn't so bad. I'm sure X/Y has at least the capacity to take down fodder.
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Ole, ole, ole, ole. Ole! Ole! (Accents and inverted !-marks missing)
On a bet with three other users on if a certain girl genie will be in Smash; I say no.
Leon our waker/ff6 predictions are a total of like .4% off of one another.

...I hope we're smart.
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Hello, I'm Chris!
https://media.giphy.com/media/2ZtIpjwFFjLHLNREpCU/giphy.gif
We've seen new games bomb left and right. I don't think X/Y will be the exception just because it's Pokemon.

R/S/E finished 62nd and D/P/P finished 73rd in GOTD X-Stats.
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Also Waker doing about that to kotor means it'd be expected to put like 58 or so on ffix.

That sounds right, doesn't it?
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Hello, I'm Chris!
https://media.giphy.com/media/2ZtIpjwFFjLHLNREpCU/giphy.gif
Wind Waker probably beats FFIX, yeah.

GOTD X-Stats project a 57% win for Wind Waker, although FFIX and WW are both probably behind at least a little SFF.
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Literally pulling old stats out of a hat.

Going by that logic, Xenogears gets 45% on Final Fantasy IX.
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"Nothing I could do!"
-Darksydephil
I think you guys are.

Wind Waker doesn't stand a chance against FFVI. There's just no way. You realize how weak that would make FFVI?

The game that actually beat FFVII in a 1v1 poll? Like that would be below FFX, almost losing to MMX tier.
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http://i498.photobucket.com/albums/rr345/Rakaputra/B8%20Girls%202012/pjbas.png
LongLiveraytan
Yeah, I was honestly pretty baffled when I saw people seriously talking about Wind Waker beating FFVI. I know ZeldaFAQs and all, but Wind Waker is still a tier below the elite non-OoT games.
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LinkMarioSamus posted...
Literally pulling old stats out of a hat.

Going by that logic, Xenogears gets 45% on Final Fantasy IX.


You know, before this contest we've never seen Xenogears do anything but get murdered by Final Fantasy in its losses. It beat G/S/C in 2004 and we assumed that was 'lol g/s/c' but then it got fed to FFVII in an obvious SFF situation, and then in 2009 it got fed to 8. So before SFF maybe it would get 45% or so on IX.
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Hello, I'm Chris!
https://media.giphy.com/media/2ZtIpjwFFjLHLNREpCU/giphy.gif
Wind Waker is more highly-regarded now than it was during GOTD.

Though I wasn't able to see the upset win over FFVI, so no fanboy pick for me there.
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"Nothing I could do!"
-Darksydephil

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