I made up for it with division 3 don't worry
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Everyone getting 1 point instead of one person getting multiple points works well for me!
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also I guess I'll be back in sole possession of first place since Guest no-showed BioShock/Silent Hill
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how convenient for you
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what it's not like I DDOS'd Bane or something

but aw yeah first place halfway through the contest

more accurate than #1 in the Oracle
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I remember when I could have 'won' the crew one year and threw it all away on the final match.

That will never happen again. because I'll never be in a position to win again
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Bane_Of_Despair posted...
SHIT I thought I had another day for some reason and there was another day of R1 matches



Ok, Silent Hill 2 kicks ass and is amazing but sucks contest strength wise and Bioshock is gonna defeat it handily. Combined with Silent Hill 2's absolutely shitty match picture I don't see it having much of a chance. Sorry Mary, James ain't gonna pull this one out for you.


Bioshock with 67.73%


he got in in time.
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iphonesience
it's all or nothing during the finals man

if we get FFVII/OoT in the finals I'll definitely be tempted to roll with FFVII
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Oh, I guess I overlooked it when I scanned through the topic.

Oh well, still tied for first!

really the Guest being tied for first should be a mark of shame for the Guest Crew anyway

stop being so rational
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didn't guest win 2013 too
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the real dissension comes in round 3 when we start to take stances on a slew of matches.

score question: should we double points for round 2, 3, etc? I guess not but I also want to see where the crew bracket ends up. right now we're atop the leaderboard thanks to 20/20 hindsight.
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add the c and back away
iphonesience
transcience posted...
the real dissension comes in round 3 when we start to take stances on a slew of matches.

score question: should we double points for round 2, 3, etc? I guess not but I also want to see where the crew bracket ends up. right now we're atop the leaderboard thanks to 20/20 hindsight.


I think it should be 1 point since picks are made with more information than one had at their disposal when submitting their brackets. You can just have the raw score (1 pt each) and have an adjusted score column (where it's multiplicative) so that way you can do a quick compare to the actual bracket scoring.
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KeepinItFresh since uhh... hell I don't know.
Pkmn Y: Banco // FC 4038-7387-9954
11/20/2015 6:51:15 PM#263
yeah i always did it 1 point throughout

i guess you could do a separate crew bracket score thing even though we have the advantage of changing things as the contest goes along
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Moltar Status: hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
11/20/2015 6:58:56 PM#264
Division 1: Round 2 - Match 65 Ė (1) Chrono Trigger vs. (8) Dragon Quest VIII

Moltarís Analysis

Chrono Trigger
Round 1 - 85.85% vs Ratchet & Clank: Up Your Arsenal

Dragon Quest VIII
Round 1 - 54.72% vs Shin Megami Tensei: Persona 3

RPG SFF to start off Round 2? letís go

CT is the obvious winner, and as we saw in R1, itís going to come out swinging. Iíd expect a good number from it here as neither DQ8 or P3 was going to be strong. Even Chrono Cross could break 60% on DQ8.

Moltarís Bracket: Chrono Trigger

Moltarís Prediction: Chrono Trigger Ė 75%



Transienceís Analysis

Round two. Wanna know what's weird? I think there are three weeks left in this contest. Things are gonna just fly from here.

The first match isn't up for debate. Chrono Cross scored 62% on DQ8 and Trigger's on a whole other level from Cross. What's a good performance? Well, I'd take Tetris over DQ8 at the least so I'd like to see it at least outdo RBY's percentage from round 1. You could make a case for SFF but we're talking about two different franchises two generations apart and on a different family of consoles. I'm doubtful.

But I could see people somewhat pity voting DQ8 here - I mean, it's got no chance and I think people in the know really adore DQ8. I don't think CT can go for the tripling, but if it does? Watch out, top half of the bracket!

transience's prediction: Chrono Trigger with 73.72%



Leonhartís Analysis

The Toriyama Artwork Factor will prove to be a double-edged sword for Dragon Quest VIII! It used that to its advantage (along with being in the same poll with CT) to get past Persona 3, but now it meets the master of video game Toriyama artwork! Seriously, this match would be pretty ugly even without taking into account any frivolous factors like that. Chrono Trigger laid one of the biggest beatdowns of round 1 against Up Your Arsenal, proving that itís still got the stuff, even as it hit the 20 year mark. I expect it to keep rolling here.

Leonhartís Vote: Chrono Trigger

Leonhartís Prediction: Chrono Trigger with 78.75%



Kleenexís Analysis

Round 2 hype. Itís going to be interesting to see how well some of the Round 1 performances hold up against (supposedly) better opponents. Chrono Trigger has another soft opponent it should be able to kill. Dragon Quest managed to take advantage of a weak Persona 3 in its first match, but wonít be so lucky here. I still donít have a lot of faith in DQ8 being worth a whole lot and CT is one of the worst opponents it could have drawn. Akira Toriyama SFF is real. Expect another big performance from CT today and get ready for the Final Fantasy X backers to start spinning some yarns about how it can still win next round.

Chrono Trigger with 77%



Guestís Analysis - ctes



Crew Consensus: Get triggered
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Moltar Status: hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
(edited 11/20/2015 7:03:44 PM)delete
wow! I'm higher on CT than all of you and I went the lowest?
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iphonesience
Just simple X-Stats! MM/DQ8 is projected to be a tripling, and I think CT is stronger than that.
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I hope you're right, but I can't see Persona 3
that low.
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iphonesience
11/20/2015 7:57:43 PM#268
Division 1: Round 2 - Match 66 Ė (12) Mega Man X vs. (4) Final Fantasy X

Moltarís Analysis

Mega Man X
Round 1 - 60.68% vs Batman: Arkham City

Final Fantasy X
Round 1 - 64.42% vs Half-Life

Alright, old games have looked good, but that was against weak newer competition. FFX may be newer than MMX, but this is still a Final Fantasy game weíre talking about here. Itís not going to roll over like Batman did, it will bring the fight.

The better FFX looks here, the better its chances look next round against CT. 60%+ would be really good, but I donít think itíll reach that. High 50s would be alright and more of what Iíd expect.

Moltarís Bracket: Final Fantasy X

Moltarís Prediction: Final Fantasy X Ė 58%



Transienceís Analysis

There's some awkward hype here from MMX and it's just a little bit premature. FFX didn't pull a Chrono Trigger and ascend to the sky but it did exactly what it was expected to do. We have a better read on FFX thanks to GOTD than Chrono Trigger who hadn't been in a 1 on 1 match since the 2004 final.

MMX is from the 90s and so people want to believe there -- but it also lost easily to FF6 and Link's Awakening in '09. Time isn't going to flip that when we're talking about a Final Fantasy game. FF10 isn't going to be far off from FF6. Does MMX beat Half-Life? Yeah, most likely, but we're not talking about a doubling or anything. FFX might dip into the 50s here but it's not going to fight for its contest life over a Mega Man game. We haven't come that far yet.

transience's prediction: Final Fantasy X with 58.88%



Leonhartís Analysis

Mega Man Xís throttling of Arkham City was the first warning shot for the dominance of old against new, and itís up against another relatively ďnewĒ game. Not sure where the cutoff point for being ďoldĒ or ďnewĒ is though! Is it as simple as 90s vs. 00s? Regardless, Final Fantasy X is in no danger of losing here, but if it wants to prove to the few diehard hopefuls who still want to believe it can beat Chrono Trigger next round (not naming any names!), it needs to buck the trend and put a hurting on Mega Man X.

Itís time for Final Fantasy X to decide if its goal is TO DO ITS BEST or VICTORY! In the words of a wise Zanarkanadian, ďEvery blitzer knows: when you got the ball, you gotta score!Ē

Leonhartís Vote: Final Fantasy X

Leonhartís Prediction: Final Fantasy X with 63.10%



Kleenexís Analysis

Mega Man did pretty well last round. Thereís a lot of factors to take into account to be sure - the SNES resurgence, new games (mostly) being ass. But it impressed me and I think itís going to impress again today, despite being guaranteed to lose. I wasnít enthralled with how FFX did against Half-Life. I thought it was a fairly mediocre performance and didnít really fall in line with the rest of the Square games that were killing things throughout round 1. I think FFX falls slightly out of range of the games that seemed to boost this year. Itís just a little too new to reap the benefits we saw of the older Square library. Its raw strength is still enough to beat MMX handily, but Iím bracing for a disappointing performance in round 2, leading to its ultimate demise against Chrono Trigger next round.

Final Fantasy X with 62%
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Moltar Status: hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
11/20/2015 7:57:48 PM#269
Guestís Analysis - POOTERSS

Previous results:

12) MegaMan X

Round 1: 12) Mega Man X over 5) Batman: Arkham City with 60.68%

Oracle median expectation: MegaMan X with 53.01%, overperforming Oracle by 7.67%

4) Final Fantasy X

Round 1: 4) Final Fantasy X over 13) Half-Life with 64.42%

Oracle median expectation: Final Fantasy X with 67.66%, underperforming Oracle by 3.24%

Analysis:

I am surprised by the current Guru expectations for this second round match. Most seem to have picked FFX quickly because of the GoTD stats(it did well vs Majora in 2010) and moved on to harder matches later on in the round to think about.

98% of Gurus, 193 out of 197, have FFX winning over either Batman: Arkham City or Mega Man X.

I really believe Board 8 has a massive love affair with Final Fantasy X that isn't shared totally by the wider gaming audience.

The problem is, 5 years have passed since 2010. MegaMan X likely has gotten stronger since 2010 based on it's first round result, comfortably beating Batman in a debated match by 10%!

Meanwhile, FFX has shown signs that it is not as strong as back in 2010. The original Half-Life is not strong on the site, it's a huge step down from Half-Life 2.

FF4, FF6, FF7, and FF9 all looked good in the first round, but FF10 was the one game that really laid an egg.

Mega Man X has a very real shot at winning this match. If I would have to put a number on it, I would say 37%. It is the only Mega Man game in the bracket, taking the power of both the old school Nintendo games on the NES and all the X games on future consoles. As Yoblazer said on Episode 1 of The Show this year, Mega Man X is beloved. People remember the bosses and songs not from all of the Mega Man X games, but from the original Mega Man X. The game is in the perfect nostalgia zone, being released in the mid-to-late 90s.

Look at how strong the SNES games in the 1st round have looked this contest:

FF6's median Oracle expectation = 69.16%, it ended with 77.03%(+8%)

Chrono Trigger's median Oracle expectation = 77%, ended with 85%(+8%)

Earthbound's median Oracle expectation = 50.2%, it ended with 58%(+8%)

Super Mario RPG median Oracle expectation = 56.31%, it ended with 54.43%(-1.5%)

Super Metroid's median Oracle = 66%, ended with 79%(+13%)

FF4's median Oracle = 64.5%, ended with 69.5%(+5%)

Sonic 2, Zelda: LttP, and DKC2 also looked great.

Only SM World looked bad, and that was due to the Undertale rally attracting voters for Animal Crossing: New Leaf.

There's an argument to be made that the Super Nintendo has been the star console of the contest so far, or at the VERY LEAST 3rd against the Nintendo 64 and Playstation 1.

Mega Man X will stand out against the other 7 games in the voting area. I'm really thinking if it gets a cool MegaMan X pic it could make this super close. It's going to be up against a lot of Square games in the voting area(CT, FFX, KH2, DQ8), so that may help it out ~1-2% or so because of people tired of voting for Square RPGs and wanting to vote for the big Capcom game amongst the group.

All of this is what Mega Man X is going to need to pull of what would be a massive upset. I remember thinking about taking Mega Man X before the brackets closed down, and I chickened out at the end due to pressure from Board 8. I might as well go out on a limb here and take a risk. The evidence really warrants such a risk.

Mega Man X with 50.3%



Crew Consensus: aww yeah guest upset
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Moltar Status: hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
FINALLY

good work Guest
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LeonhartFour posted...
FINALLY

good work Guest


thanks!
a solid effort to go along with the pick too. I dislike simplifying it to "it's on the SNES" but at least someone went with the flow.
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iphonesience
Leon paying off guests to take a dive
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it makes FFX's shocking 70% win look all the more impressive if someone thinks it's going to lose and even the most hardcore FFX believer undershoots it by 7%
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still loses to Chrono Trigger give it up
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iphonesience
Round 1: 4) Final Fantasy X over 13) Half-Life with 64.42%

This was a bad result. I would take Mega Man X to win with more than this over Half-Life, thinking 68%.
that's an expected result. Half-Life beats Arkham City.
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xyzzy
You're overselling Batman's strength if you think MMX goes 68% there.
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LeonhartFour posted...
You're overselling Batman's strength if you think MMX goes 68% there.


That could be true. Recent games have not looked great in this 2015 contest. I just think the original Half-Life would be weaker as well due to the overshadowing impact that Half-Life 2 has had on the original game.
Don't worry I'll be voting Mega Man X with great fervor
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LongLiveraytan
I've been wondering since day 1 if some people thought it was FFX vs. Half-Life 2.
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xyzzy
do you think your great fervor can match my WHITE HOT PASSION FOR VOTING

we shall see
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transience posted...
I've been wondering since day 1 if some people thought it was FFX vs. Half-Life 2.


let's hope so
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I also wonder if the DQ8 announcement helps it since the last round. probably not.

DQ8's a great game though
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xyzzy
I look forward to it getting dismantled
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LongLiveraytan
11/20/2015 8:49:55 PM#286
Division 1: Round 2 - Match 67 Ė (3) Super Smash Bros. Melee vs. (6) Pokemon Gold/Silver/Crystal Version

Moltarís Analysis

Super Smash Bros. Melee
Round 1 - 67.71% vs Portal

Pokemon Gold/Silver/Crystal Version
Round 1 - 76.63% vs The World Ends with You

GSC looked beastly in R1, much better than RBY. However, Melee is a top game on this site and should be considered the favorite going in.

GSC probably wonít look too bad, as Pokemon tends to stand up to Nintendo very well. It should be a fairly close match, but Melee shouldnít be in any actual trouble here.

Moltarís Bracket: Super Smash Bros. Melee

Moltarís Prediction: Super Smash Bros. Melee Ė 54%



Transienceís Analysis

Anyone hyping RBY as a contest killer should really be expecting big things here. GSC isn't really that far off from RBY and I think those two games are tied at the hip. You're not gonna see RBY do well and GSC fail - if one fails the other does.

I don't personally think a whole ton of Pokemon this year and don't think GSC has what it takes to contend with Melee. To be fair, I'm not sure that RBY has what it takes either. I think Melee rides its crazy board vote to a comfortable, Majora's Mask-esque win, maybe a little bit higher. I'm down on Melee too but still think it's a tier about GSC.

transience's prediction: SSBM with 57.73%



Leonhartís Analysis

For about an hour, Melee was looking to match Chrono Triggerís opening shot, but it steadily dropped throughout the day against Portal to get to a less dominant (but still impressive) number. That Melee opening vote is no joke, but itíll be interesting to see how it fares against Pokemonís traditionally strong opening vote. Thereís also some question about whether SSBM can get any sort of SFF against G/S/C. Iím leaning toward no, not necessarily because I believe Pokemon is ďSFF proofĒ or anything, but because itís hard to SFF something if its strength is relatively close to your own. If Melee manages anything, it wonít be a lot. It shouldnít need it to win comfortably though. Itíll be interesting to see if it can beat the 56% Majoraís Mask put on it during GOTD.

Leonhartís Vote: Super Smash Bros. Melee

Leonhartís Prediction: Super Smash Bros. Melee with 57.50%



Kleenexís Analysis

Speaking of things I wasnít impressed with last round - Pokemon. RBY might still get saved due to extenuating circumstances, but Gold and Silver have no such luck. Melee is just straight up a stronger game and if thereís no funny business going on then it should take this match home without too much trouble. This seems like a match that there should be a whole lot more to say about, but it seems pretty straightforward to me.

Smash Bros. Melee with 59%



Guestís Analysis - spooky

Both, Melee and GSC looked good in the previous round. However, while GSC is a fairly strong game, it's really unfortunate that it ran into Melee so early in the contest, because it's really capable of doing some damage. I think GSC would finish in the low 40s, and would be really lucky to break 45%. This match however is really more about how far Melee can go. Some have it losing to CT/FFX, while some folks (like me) are hoping for Melee upsetting FF7, which as of now seems really unlikely, unless Melee comfortably finishes above 60% against GSC.

spooky's Prediction: Super Smash Bros. Melee with 57.50%



Crew Consensus: Melee wavedashes on to R3
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Moltar Status: hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
we get a mega man x pick but not a pokemon pick

cool
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xyzzy
11/20/2015 10:04:37 PM#288
Division 1: Round 2 - Match 68 Ė (10) Kingdom Hearts II vs. (2) The Last of Us

Moltarís Analysis

Kingdom Hearts II
Round 1 - 58.71% vs Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots

The Last of Us
Round 1 - 67.50% vs Halo 3

This match became really interesting once we saw both games in action. KH2 put up what we thought was an impressive performance on MGS4. However, since then weíve seen the other MGS games also disappoint or look decent at best. We also saw the original KH lose to FF9 in a match that seemed to favor it going in.

Meanwhile, The Last of Us doubled Halo, which is better than most thought it would do. Halo hasnít looked all that good either, but TLoU could be one of the few new games with some strength behind it since itís so highly regarded as one of the best games of last generation.

Now this is still GameFAQs, and it still loves it some Square. I would still consider KH2 the favorite going in because unlike Halo, the site actually likes KH. If Last of Us wins this one, then it really will have proven itself, but beating down a Halo is just like beating down a GTA or CoD these days, meaningless.

Moltarís Bracket: Kingdom Hearts II

Moltarís Prediction: Kingdom Hearts II Ė 56%



Transienceís Analysis

Round 1 gave us a Last of Us doubling over a Halo game and some hype that perhaps it could hang with KH2. Looking purely at the results I can see where you get that idea. But... I don't know. There's a limit to how high I'm going to take a 2013 action/adventure game that's exclusive to the Playstation 3. Last of Us is critically acclaimed and narratively strong but I don't think it has the fanbase to support it here on GameFAQs.

I wrote about this in the stats topic yesterday: in my mind, Halo 3 and Call of Duty were two of the biggest bombs of the first round. Destiny is another. So is Borderlands 2. These modern shooters just aren't doing it here. I think KH2 puts up a number that makes Halo 3 look hilarious in the stats. There's a limit on how low I'm willing to go for Metal Gear Solid 4. It's not going to get close to Halo 3.

transience's prediction: Kingdom Hearts 2 with 59.99%



Leonhartís Analysis

Kingdom Hearts II and The Last of Us both won in impressive fashion in round one. There may be some rumbling about Last of Us pulling the upset here, but Iím not feeling it. I feel like it exposed Halo 3 as a fraud more than anything else. Not to say it doesnít have legitimate strength, but it would definitely buck the trend for this contest for a game as recent as The Last of Us to have elite level strength. The fact that itís so highly regarded as one of the best games of the last generation may allow it to be an exception to the rule. Who knows!

Some people may be questioning whether KH2 has elite level strength after KH1 came up short against FFIX, but I donít really count that as a knock against the series. Final Fantasy looked pretty solid across the board in round one, and Kingdom Hearts II is stronger anyway. Even if Kingdom Hearts has lost a step or two since GOTD, KH2 should have enough breathing room to win here.

Leonhartís Vote: Kingdom Hearts II

Leonhartís Prediction: Kingdom Hearts II with 54.50%
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Moltar Status: hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
11/20/2015 10:04:41 PM#289
Kleenexís Analysis

Kingdom Hearts has to win this, right? The Last of Us murdered Halo 3 last year, but it canít actually win this, right? Itís a Square game vs. something western that came out less than 10 years ago. In my mind round 1 was an overperformance for TLoU. I could entertain the possibility of it somehow winning this, and Iím curious to see which way the other swing on this match, but I feel a lot safer picking something we know has a reasonable amount of strength against something unknown that has every reason to flop.

Kingdom Hearts II with 58%



Guestís Analysis - Bane

So now that I can't write for Kingdom Hearts 1 matches anymore (which I should be able to since it shouldn't have lost R1), I'll have to settle to write for KH2. Some people have been hyping this match now thinking "Wow, The Last of Us looked really good against Halo 3. Maybe it has a chance against KH2." There are quite a few reasons that I disagree with this assessment. First, yes The Last of Us looked good for a 2015/new game. Newer games have still overall been doing notoriously bad in this contest, and while The Last of Us bucks this trend a bit I don't think it's enough to have it escape R2. Second, it did well against Halo. 3. So honestly that doesn't say too much about its strength.

Now looking at each R1 match, The Last of Us put 67.5% on Halo 3 while KH2 put 58.71% on MGS4. While MGS4 has obviously dropped in strength over the years, there is no doubt in my mind that MGS4 could fairly easily defeat Halo 3. So even with the lower percentage KH2 comes out of R1 still looking better in my opinion. Joel and Ellie will not survive this particular trip.

Kingdom Hearts 2 with 58.46%



Crew Consensus: Kingdom Hearts (round) 3
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Moltar Status: hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
Oops my phrasing makes it seem like I said The Last of Us was a 2015 game. I meant 2015 AND new games in general. My bad.
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"Have you ever wondered if there was more to life, other than being really, really, ridiculously good looking?"
woo high pick free point thanks guys
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xyzzy
I've got the high pick in two matches today take that
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low CT pick thanks for that too

actually, I'm starting to come around. let's go for 80% Chrono Trigger
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xyzzy
not if there's no pictures! dq8 overperforms
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xyzzy
I'm gonna go out of a limb and say MMX has no chance of winning

I'll just be happy for it to break 40 so I win my spread bet
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Started from the bottom now we here
that's not much of a limb

more like a twig
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I don't know whether it's a good thing or not how boring I am with most of my eventual percentages and how they align with a lot of the Crew
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"Have you ever wondered if there was more to life, other than being really, really, ridiculously good looking?"
regular humans strive to join the crew groupthink! congratulations on joining us
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xyzzy

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