transcience posted...
ZFS posted...
transience posted...
Guest BELIEVEs his way to a Galaxy point


no credit for my high analytical skills I see


Mario Maker


hey man I wasn't alone on this just think of the Twitch streamers if they got involved!

i also naturally do not like FEA so some of that probably crept in
---
satoru iwata
ratchet and clank 3 sold a million copies and had a retail release
---
http://i.imgur.com/RHvCiY3.png
super mario maker > fire emblem: awakening could have happened. we had no data on either game before the match.
---
Geothermal terpsichorean ejectamenta
The Mana Sword posted...
ratchet and clank 3 sold a million copies and had a retail release


who actually cares about ratchet and clank thouhh
---
satoru iwata
I'm actually kind of impressed SA got well over 60% after that board vote.
---
http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif
this Ratchet & Clank hate

it burns
---
http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif
I need to get around to that series. Love me a good 3D platformer.
---
"Nothing I could do!"
-Darksydephil
LinkMarioSamus posted...
Love me a good 3D platformer.


Might not like ratchet & clank then
---
http://i498.photobucket.com/albums/rr345/Rakaputra/B8%20Girls%202012/pjbas.png
LongLiveraytan
Oh okay I know because Ratchet & Clank is also a shooter.

Whatevs.
---
"Nothing I could do!"
-Darksydephil
Ratchet & Clank is a "shooter" in the same sense that Mega Man is a "shooter."

also don't listen to pjbasis
---
http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif
I'm still really interested in the series!
---
"Nothing I could do!"
-Darksydephil
never played R&C but I bet I would have liked them back when they came out
---
http://i.imgur.com/RHvCiY3.png
pjbasis is being generous in providing additional reasons to back up my claim that you should never listen to him

I appreciate that
---
http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif
A Crack in Time is still the best exclusive for the PS3!
---
http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif
really don't approve of R&C slander in here
---
Communists
LeonhartFour posted...
pjbasis is being generous in providing additional reasons to back up my claim that you should never listen to him

I appreciate that


Hey, hey. I don't doubt that pj is baseless in his R&C slander but don't go knocking B-K!
---
FC 5026-4424-6331 -- Native Vivillon type: Polar
Still need Marine, Sun, Icy Snow, Monsoon, River, and Jungle
I, much like the rest of the site, have no opinion or interest in ratchet and clank
---
add the c and back away
iphonesience
LeonhartFour posted...
A Crack in Time is still the best exclusive for the PS3!


Ratchet and Clank is good but I can't get behind this
---
"I do because I can."
http://card.psnprofiles.com/1/Micer101.png
11/17/2015 6:57:41 PM#120
Division 7: Round 1 - Match 53 Ė (3) The Witcher 3 vs. (14) Binding of Isaac Rebirth

Moltarís Analysis

Witcher 3 is looking to be one of the strongest non-rally powered 2015 entranta if previous polls indicate anything. It was well-received and definitely looks to have made some impact on GameFAQs. Binding of Isaac is nowhere near as popular or highly acclaimed as Witcher 3, which is what I think matters in these new game vs new game matches.

Moltarís Bracket: The Witcher 3

Moltarís Prediction: The Witcher 3 Ė 70%



Transienceís Analysis

Ah, Witcher 3. It's well-liked and popular with casuals and is one of those dreaded 2015 games: pretty much a kiss of death based on current trends. But it *is* an RPG and it's up against Binding of Isaac, a game that has a small cult following but isn't exactly mainstream, certainly not on this website. Isaac is obscure in a way that GameFAQs definitely appreciates but, like, it's a roguelite about shooting poop with your tears. Not seeing a lot of overlap here.

Witcher 3 could have a Persona 4/999 type of match here, where they just pull huge percentages because the opponent is so bad. I won't go *that* high because a lot of this website is in cryostasis and will be like "Witcher? What the hell is that?". It could happen though.

transience's prediction: Witcher 3 with 70.54%



Leonís Analysis

How do you even predict this match, at least in terms of percentages? We know nothing about either of these games. We can assume Witcher 3 will at least be decent and Binding of Isaac wonít be, but these percentages could be anywhere. I donít know if this will tell us anything about its chances against MGS2 next round unless it ends up being in the 50s or something.

Leonhartís Vote: The Witcher 3

Leonhartís Prediction: The Witcher 3 with 72.50%



Kleenexís Analysis

What is this game? Has anyone even heard of the Witcher 3? How did it get such a high seed? No one played the first two game. I didnít even know they made a third one. Pretty much no one has played this game, itís probably going to do terribly.

Witcher should do fine here, itís not going to lose to Isaac, but given the results weíve seen so far, Geralt and crew have a lot to overcome. Itís a brand new game and thatís not going to stack up well next round when itís up against something thatís 14+ years old.

The Witcher 3 with 65%



Guestís Analysis - Magmortar

Alright, Witcher 3 has a big match next round (which I am backing it in!), so it looking as good as possible here would be nice.

Binding of Isaac is...not strong. Indie games are one of the worst performing groups in the contest and nothing this game has done in polls convinces me Isaac's any different. Witcher 3 has a lot of good things going for it: A ton of praise, including a fairly one-sided first place win in a "Game of the First Half of 2015" poll (which probably means nothing but whatever), it introduced the series to consoles in a big way, sales, a high seed and a developer that is happy to rally for it if need be.

Now recent games haven't looked good sure, this game I feel has every reason to be an exception to the rule. This match is going to be pretty boring though, more of a test than an actual match.

Magmortar's Prediction: The Witcher 3 with 68.35%



Crew Consensus: Witcher we guess
---
Moltar Status: hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
11/17/2015 7:56:34 PM#121
Division 7: Round 1 - Match 54 Ė (6) Metal Gear Solid 2 vs. (11) Resident Evil

Moltarís Analysis

Two series the site cares about, we may have a match here! MGS2 used to be the bastard child of the series, but the older it gets, the more the opinion of it from the fans changes for the better. The negativity is now more directed towards MGS4 and V (story-wise). Basically what this means is that MGS2 should look a bit better than it used to.

Resident Evil isnít weak, but nothing outside of RE4 is going to win any matches against legit opponents, and MGS is definitely legit. RE2 didn't do too badly against FFT, but it didn't win. RE should do respectably here, but I donít see it posing a threat against MGS2 since the franchise overall is just a step behind (and we might really get to see that when the strongest MGS game goes up against the strongest RE game later spoilers)

Moltarís Bracket: Metal Gear Solid 2

Moltarís Prediction: Metal Gear Solid 2 Ė 55%



Transienceís Analysis

Gonna go out on a limb here: this match is dangerous! I wouldn't be totally surprised if Resident Evil won its fourpack. Those who know me know that I don't think highly of Metal Gear Solid 2. It disappoints me every time and my expectations get lower and lower each time. At this point, a loss to Resident Evil wouldn't be totally surprising.

Let me qualify that though: I think RE is about equal, or maybe a half-step below, RE2. RE2 just got 43% on FFT who I would take over MGS2 in a sweet second. It's in the site's sweet nostalgia spot (PS1) and just got a re-remake in the past year. MGS2? It's that Raiden game that a lot of the site hasn't gotten over. Resident Evil is also just a more important game than MGS2, having more or less established the survival horror genre. MGS2 probably wins this but I'm expecting a large disappointment coupled with some Witcher 3 > MGS2 hype.

transience's prediction: Metal Gear Solid 2 with 52.69%



Leonís Analysis

Metal Gear Solid 2 may be reeling from its upset against Shadow of the Colossus in GOTD, but I think itíll be fine here. Resident Evil 4 is the one worthwhile RE game in terms of contest strength. We saw MGS1 throttle RE1 in the original Games Contest, and we saw FFT beat RE2 without breaking a sweat earlier this contest. Itís kind of amazing that RE4 can be as strong as it is when no other game in the series is really that strong. I guess thatís just a testament to what kind of game it was. Anyway, like I said in the Witcher writeup, I donít know how much this will tell us about MGS2ís chances next round unless this match is really close or MGS2 hits a doubling or better.

Leonhartís Vote: Metal Gear Solid 2

Leonhartís Prediction: Metal Gear Solid 2 with 60.60%
---
Moltar Status: hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
11/17/2015 7:56:50 PM#122
Kleenexís Analysis

Metal Gear hasnít looked too hot so far this contest. Granted, 4 & 5 are a completely different beast from 1-3, but this will still be a match to watch. MGS2 is the weakest of the three originals, and while it shouldnít really have any trouble with Resident Evil, if the MGS de-boost is actually a real thing, this match could get dicey. I donít actually think the general downturn on opinion of MGS4 and MGS5 is going to affect the rest of the game this year, especially because they are all 10+ years old at this point. Which is apparently the only way GameFAQs likes its games.

Metal Gear Solid 2 with 64%



Lopen's Analysis:

Okay no time for jokes about being the real guest once more. And NO TIME FOR GAMES. Okay, maybe 7 minutes would be enough-- not today? Not feeling that? ...

Well, I'd like to think MGS has kinda underwhelmed this contest, but we haven't really seen any of the classic ones yet. As I've said before MGS4 has aged really poorly, and MGS5 well, it's quite new which kinda limits its potential strength ceiling.

MGS, MGS2, and MGS3 though, I think all three should come out swinging (screw you haters who would put MGS2 clearly below the other two). RE2 held its own against FFT, but RE1 should be a good bit lower than that. MGS2 vs FFT, if you trust 11 year old results, probably says to you that FFT is stronger than MGS2 since it almost beat the original MGS-- not sure that means much today but for completely unrelated reasons I will put them in the same ballpark.

Wait a minute-- while looking at 11 year old results I found this gem

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/1620-division-32-64-round-1-metal-gear-solid-vs-resident-evil

BOOM CHEAT CODE, SON. How is this so easy?

Lopen's prediction:
Metal Gear Solid 2 with 70.62%



Crew Consensus: Naked cartwheeling to Round 2
---
Moltar Status: hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
well you can't blame us for groupthink with those percentages!
---
add the c and back away
iphonesience
Lopen's Unofficial Guest Analysis:

Witcher 3, smash hit of the season! This is like the battle of the fat cats vs the little indie guy

Now I think you've heard this one but

Fat cats win. RIP Isaac.

Lopen prediction:
Fat Cats with 62.19%

Lopen's Unofficial Guest Analysis:

I like that Lopen guy's thoughts but sometimes he goes a bit too high on these things.

Lopen prediction:
Metal Gear Solid 2 with 70.61%
---
No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
Lopen making up for lost percentages with this shit
---
Communists
11/17/2015 9:03:56 PM#126
Division 7: Round 1 - Match 55 Ė (7) Fallout: New Vegas vs. (10) Bioshock Infinite

Moltarís Analysis

Bioshock Infinite is good, but the original Bioshock is the big beloved baby of the series that everyone loves, and 2 kind of soured people away. Therefore, I donít see it being as strong as the original game.

Meanwhile, New Vegas should put up a Fallout 3-like performance here, as fans of the series liked it just as much, if not more, than Fallout 3. Between voters that have played these western games, the majority are going to side with Fallout because its more beloved.

Moltarís Bracket: Fallout: New Vegas

Moltarís Prediction: Fallout: New Vegas Ė 60%



Transienceís Analysis

Bioshock Infinite should be popular but it's just not. It got overshadowed by Last of Us and I feel like that game came and went in a way that OG Bioshock didn't. Hindsight has not been kind to that game.

Meanwhile, we've got Fallout New Vegas which is in the middle of a resurgence. I'd sooner consider it over RE4 than losing here. It's top 5 in the FAQs here thanks to Fallout 4 and is way more of a GameFAQs game than the crazy FPS that is Infinite. I'll cheer for Infinite here but don't expect this to be close. It's possible that Fallout New Vegas is just a half step behind Fallout 3, and F3/RE4 would be heavily debated.

transience's prediction: Fallout: New Vegas with 62.59%



Leonís Analysis

This is a battle of two games living in the shadow of breakout games with the same name attached. New Vegas isnít going to approach Fallout 3ís strength level, and Infinite isnít going to be as strong as the original Bioshock. The gap between Fallout 3 and the original Bioshock is about 60/40 based on GOTD, and Fallout 4 just being released a week ago should help New Vegas out a bit, too, I think. This match could go either way because who knows about either of these games. New Vegas is the ďsafeĒ pick. For being a technically ďdebatableĒ match, Iíve put practically no thought into this match because itís just a one point match and neither game is going to be anything special.

Leonhartís Vote: Fallout: New Vegas

Leonhartís Prediction: Fallout: New Vegas with 61.10%
---
Moltar Status: hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
11/17/2015 9:04:01 PM#127
Kleenexís Analysis

The fact that this is was (and apparently still is) a debatable match is bizarre to me. Infinite is a steaming pile. The years since that game came out have not been kind to it and the general mood around it is tepid at best. It totally bombed in the game of the year polls it was in. Thereís nothing to suggest any strength except the Bioshock name, which isnít going to help because itís against Fallout.

To be fair, New Vegas is also untested in a contest, but there are a lot of things going for it. First off, its closest analogue is way stronger than Infiniteís. People also have a much higher opinion of New Vegas than they do of Infinite. Most seem to agree that NV does a lot of things much better than Fallout 3 did. Thereís also the fact that Fallout 4 just came out a week ago to take into account. The top 5 games on the site right now are literally all Fallout games. Itís Falloutmania in here! This is going to be a stomp.

Fallout: New Vegas with 67%



Guestís Analysis - Sir Chris

So this is a match I really wanted because I saw that Bioshock Infinite was a huge underdog in the Guru and I thought to myself Ďthis is my chance to make sure the Crew is not cursed and to redeem them.Ē For I have Bioshock winning this match! Now the more research I do the more I realize that this was probably not the best of ideas, as New Vegas is a bit better regarded than I remember it being and the ownership rates on Bioshock Infinite are not as high as I would expect, and Fallout 3 of course crushes Bioshock in strength head to head so there is little reason to think there would be a reversal in fortune for these two series in this match so really all I have done is cost myself a point.

But you know what New Vegas doesnít have? A proper Waifu!

http://www.haywiremag.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/BioshockInfinite2.jpg

Elizabeth and her Poison beating strength will carry Infinite to victory. Also I have snuck in the word ĎWaifuí into a proper analysis topic, I am going to hell.

Prediction: Bioshock Infinite with 50.45%



Crew Consensus: There's the Guest upset pick we've come to know and love
---
Moltar Status: hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
whew Crew Curse avoided

seriously though I have no feel for this match whatsoever
---
http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif
it's about time we got a Guest pick that was a crazy upset and not just chalk! also that writeup is the waffliest one in a while
---
xyzzy
waffle write-ups
---
Communists
I had Infinite in my bracket, didn't think New Vegas was all that popular

How popular was it when it was released? All I know for sure is that it's nowhere near Fallout 3 but still respected.
---
Cranky's Advice - "git gud"
Oh yea, I guess raytan won.
I can guarantee if we did a poll on NeoGAF, New Vegas would soundly trounce Fallout 3. The power of Obsidian.

Don't know how well that translate to GFAQs, but its a very well-liked game by pretty much everyone who liked FO3.
---
Communists
koolaid talking about neogaf yet again
---
xyzzy
All I know is that I remember the hype for Infinite being much higher than New Vegas. I still think New Vegas wins but I really don't know if it breaks 60, even with Fallout 4 hype.
---
Cranky's Advice - "git gud"
Oh yea, I guess raytan won.
infinite was definitely a bigger deal at the time, yeah.
---
xyzzy
I feel Infinite is less appreciated and New Vegas is more appreciated by its respective franchise fans in the years since their release.
---
Communists
I'll say this though - I would put more stock in New Vegas over RE4 than I would Infinite over New Vegas
---
xyzzy
bioshock infinite undiscovery
---
http://i.imgur.com/RHvCiY3.png
11/17/2015 10:10:45 PM#139
Division 7: Round 1 - Match 56 Ė (2) Resident Evil 4 vs. (15) Paper Mario

Moltarís Analysis

Paper Mario isnít weak, but RE4 is one of the strongest post 90s games in the contest. Meanwhile, Paper Mario games struggle with beating Tales games.

Percentage-wise, this might go worse than it should on paper (ha ha). RE4 has strong Nintendo ties and it's very highly regarded as a classic. I could see Nintendo fans abandoning Paper Mario here easily.

Moltarís Bracket: Resident Evil 4

Moltarís Prediction: Resident Evil 4 Ė 65%



Transienceís Analysis

Poor Paper Mario. It might have contended against any other game in this eightpack besides RE4. Every Crew writeup probably said this, am I right?

Paper Mario lost 57/43 to MGS3 which went even with RE4. This seems like a really easy one to gauge based on that. I'll give Paper Mario a few years worth of nostalgia credit and give it 45%. Why not? RE4 seems like it should be one newer game that will hold up well thanks to how people revere it and how it redefined a genre. But like, this is an N64 RPG. Sorry RE4 but people might be worried about you come rounds 2 and 3.

transience's prediction: Resident Evil 4 with 55.67%



Leonís Analysis

I know it might be a huge upset to pick an N64 game to actually lose here, but Iím going to take a chance and say Resident Evil 4 will win this match! Paper Mario has gotten some tough draws in these contests. It got stuck in a 4-way with Kingdom Hearts, Vice City, and Metroid Prime in 2009, and now it gets an unwinnable match against RE4. It did get to the third round in GOTD and put up a good number on MGS3, so itís got decent strength, but not enough to win here.

Leonhartís Vote: Paper Mario

Leonhartís Prediction: Resident Evil 4 with 58.27%
---
Moltar Status: hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
11/17/2015 10:10:53 PM#140
Kleenexís Analysis

Better look out Resident Evil, Marioís cominí. RE4 is historically a very strong game on this site. It had great showings in 2009 and GotD. Unfortunately, the site seems to have shifted to a position this contest that doesnít appear to be particularly conducive for continued strength on RE4ís part. Paper Mario is no joke either, and itís right on the cusp of that sweet spot of game that seem to be driving the voters wild this year. Itís also has Bright Boxart Factor on its side too.

I donít think this all adds up to an upset or anything, that probably reaching a little too much. Even for me. But 4 RESIDENT EVIL could be in for a rough time today if Mario comes out swinging.

Resident Evil 4 with 60%



Guestís Analysis - MechanicalWall


Paper Mario is a game that seems like it should be a lot stronger than I think it actually is. On paper, it sounds like perfect GFaqs bait: it's a JRPG, it's old(er than it's opponent, at least), it was on the N64, a well-beloved system on the site; and best of all, the paper this is all being written on is Mario himself, one of the biggest series on the site.

And yet, it's definitely going to lose this match. In the GotD contest, it put up some respectable numbers against the likes of WoW (59%) and Katamari Damacy (72%), but those are hardly heavyweights on this site. It went on to lose to MGS3, a game I imagine is, at best, on par with Resident Evil 4. Most troubling for the game, I think, is TTYD's performance against Tales of Symphonia about a week ago, just barely scraping by with about 52% against a game that it should have SFFed into the ground.

Meanwhile, Resident Evil 4 might be the biggest juggernaut on this site that came out in the last decade, and isn't Square or Nintendo related, and was most recently seen beating games like FFIV and Oblivion handily in this (http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/5467-whats-your-all-time-favorite-4-game) poll. And while a lot of RE purists here have a lot of resentment towards RE4, the fact that RE5 and especially RE6 dragged the series through the mud leads even those types to look at 4 as the last 'good' one, earning it a lot of goodwill. The Paper Mario series has sort of gone the same way, with Super Paper Mario and Sticker Star being cited as lackluster sequels at best. Difference is, TTYD is the one that sucks up the 'last good one' praise, while the original is almost a footnote to it in a lot of discussions.

It's also worth noting that since the GotD contest, where RE4 lost to FFX, the game was rereleased on almost everything that could handle it: PS3, Xbox 360, PC (again), and now the Wii U eshop in Europe. So if anything, the game's been getting even more exposure.

So yes, this is another case where 'it's friggin' Mario' isn't going to cut it. It'll put up a decent fight, but that's all. And this is an important match, too, because Resident Evil 4 is most likely taking the division.

Winner- Resident Evil 4 with 68%



Crew Consensus: What are we selling? An RE4 win
---
Moltar Status: hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
you know I see people make the "RE4 is essentially a Nintendo game!" argument all the time but I don't think I really buy that
---
http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif
LeonhartFour posted...
you know I see people make the "RE4 is essentially a Nintendo game!" argument all the time but I don't think I really buy that


http://web.archive.org/web/20070621040246/http://ir.capcom.co.jp/english/data/million.html

If this graph is to be believed, RE4 sold better on the PS2 than it did on the Gamecube. So you're probably right in not buying that.
---
Video game companies don't care about you, so stop kissing their asses
PS2 got like 5 times the install base of the GC
---
Communists
TheKoolAidShoto posted...
PS2 got like 5 times the install base of the GC


More like 8 times. Doesn't change the fact more people played it on the PS2, though.
---
Video game companies don't care about you, so stop kissing their asses
If you wanna play that game, RE4 Wii sold 2 million

http://www.capcom.co.jp/ir/english/business/million.html

the power of huge install bases
---
Communists
I own RE4 Wii

...still sealed, I think
---
thelefty for analysis crew 2008 imo -tranny
I have a third degree burn in flame-o-nomics -Sir Chris
RE4 is a Wii game?!

UPSET ALERT UPSET ALERT UPSET ALERT
---
http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif
Alright, you got me there. Still, like I mentioned in the write-up, RE4 is on everything that can handle it but the PS4 and Xbone. The game shed it's Nintendo-centered image a while ago.
---
Video game companies don't care about you, so stop kissing their asses
Also, looking at everyone else's analysis, I probably overanalyzed for what's not a debatable match. My write-up is the size of everyone else's put together.
---
Video game companies don't care about you, so stop kissing their asses
we've also done 56 of these in two weeks. your writeup is good.
---
xyzzy

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