Best. Game. Ever. Contest Analysis Crew - Part 2

thanks for that LMS
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Communists
god damn LMS why do you frustrate me so much for no real reason
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add the c and back away
iphonesience
Insightful analysis from LMS
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Man is not the creature of circumstances. Circumstances are the creatures of man.
it at least took more of an effort to come up with that bad pun than his last writeup did
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http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif
Dark Souls has never showed itself to be worth much on GameFAQs, so this'll be interesting to see if people have warmed up to it. It definitely doesn't strike me as being in our wheelhouse.

Perfect Dark should manage to do really well here, I think. I'm in no way confident in MGS5 being able to do anything. It'll be the weakest MGS by a ways.

ZELDA is always fun to watch sorry Cave Story
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satoru iwata
I don't think Dark Souls will be a worldbeater, but it'll be strong enough to beat MGSV I think.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
ZeldaTPLink posted...
Smash U and Splatoon are probably the strongest WiiU can be.


I would put Smash 4 as being the strongest Wii U game, while I think Mario Kart 8 will be our second strongest.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ!
11/14/2015 11:14:47 PM#458
Wow, great showing for PD. The Year of the N64 rolls on!

And tranny tranny tranny, a whole paragraph that perfectly sums up why MGS5 was never going to do well on this site but then you go and swing 10% in the wrong direction. I just don't know what to do with you sometimes...
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Have you listened to this week's episode of The Show yet, buddy?
board8.wikia.com | thengamer.com/xstats
I went low on MGSV because I thought there was a potential chance that it could underperform.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ!
my pick has more to do with not believing in perfect dark than anything MGSV-related. was surprised when others went lower but I never really put any deep thought into what I should expect here.
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add the c and back away
iphonesience
also, dat final fantasy. why did I not believe when I'm so high on CT and FF6
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add the c and back away
iphonesience
every FF game except VIII has boosted apparently

unless GTA has also boosted a lot and GTAV is gonna ruin brackets
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http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif
yeah I want to see gta more

but I've always seen old square as ff4-5-6-9 and maybe tactics, and new square as 7-8-10. let's see how 12 does and if bloodborne can hang with it. that'll be interesting.
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add the c and back away
iphonesience
LeonhartFour posted...
every FF game except VIII has boosted apparently

they see the VIII as the top of half of XIII and the hate just carries over before they realize what game it really is
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
Xenoblade Chronicles 49.64% 17434
Donkey Kong Country 2: Diddy's Kong Quest 50.36% 17688
TOTAL VOTES 35122

Fire Emblem: Awakening 64.39% 22240
Super Mario Maker 35.61% 12298
TOTAL VOTES 34538

Banjo-Kazooie 62.32% 21492
Baldur's Gate II: Shadows of Amn 37.68% 12992
TOTAL VOTES 34484

Castlevania: Symphony of the Night 74.99% 26098
Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney Trials and Tribulations 25.01% 8705
TOTAL VOTES 34803

Crew Predictions: 35/40

What Happened: Wii games continue to flop, Baldur's Gate still has the worst board vote in history, and SOTN triples T&T.

What Will Happen: SOTN looks like the favorite to win this eightpack.

Crew Prediction Challenge: Leonhart and Guest get DKC2, Kleenex whiffs on Mario Maker, everyone gets Banjo and SOTN.

Guest: 36
Leonhart: 36
Moltar: 34
transience: 32
Kleenex: 31

Crew Accuracy Challenge: Leonhart gets DKC2, Guest gets Fire Emblem, Moltar gets Banjo, and Kleenex gets SOTN.

Leonhart: 11
Kleenex: 8.5
Guest: 6.5
transience: 5.5
Moltar: 5.5
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(edited 11/14/2015 11:37:30 PM)report
strongest MGS he said
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Communists
I'm starting to feel good about my RE4 > MGS pick.
Didn't have the guts to pick that.

Should have went with fanboy picks all the way and had Wind Waker > FFVI, Metroid Prime > Skyrim and RE4 > MGS.
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"Nothing I could do!"
-Darksydephil
ZeldaTPLink posted...
I'm starting to feel good about my RE4 > MGS pick.


MGSV doesn't have anything to do with MGS1 here.

this is like saying FFT > RE2 makes you feel good about MGS1 > RE4
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need to see division 7 and 8 before saying much. there's a lot we could speculate on. so far I like smrpg > oblivion and cc > wow. not sure about gta at all though.
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add the c and back away
iphonesience
come on lttp you can get to 88 I believe in you
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http://i.imgur.com/RHvCiY3.png
11/15/2015 6:11:07 PM#473
Division 6: Round 1 - Match 45 – (3) Super Metroid vs. (14) Call of Duty 4

Moltar’s Analysis

CoD4 is surprisingly not terrible in these contests. This is actually the first time it's going to lose in Round 1. It also won't get blown out, so that's something for the casuals to maybe be happy about.

Super Metroid is just way too much for it, especially with all these old games looking strong. It should also be able to flex its strength since there's no Zelda or Mario to bring it down.

Moltar’s Bracket: Super Metroid

Moltar’s Prediction: Super Metroid - 66%



Transience’s Analysis

I'm writing this on a phone so pardon my brevity. it'll probably still be better than an LMS writeup though!

Super Metroid has never had a chance to shine. LTTP annihilated it in 2004 and SMK weighed it down in 09. finally it gets a non-Nintendo opponent.

Metroid's strength is in the diversity of its fanbase. it brings in Nintendo fans but also fans of atmospheric/"mature" games. Super Metroid is one of the most critically acclaimed games out there and pretty much established a genre. put it against a game with a core fanbase and it folds though.

fortunately it gets Call of Duty here, a damn important game in its own right but one that lacks a fanbase on gamefaqs. if SM can't go to town here, it never will.

transience's prediction: super metroid with 62.11%



Leon’s Analysis

Hey, remember when Call of Duty 4 beat Super Mario Galaxy twice in 2009? Wait, what’s that? Super Mario Galaxy is in the same fourpack? Should we expect a repeat of history here?! Short answer: No. I honestly don’t have a lot of faith in Super Metroid. I know it’s been put in bad situations a lot of the time, but it’s still never looked that impressive. This contest provides a chance for redemption. It gets a chance to flex its muscles against a former GOTY that’s fallen from grace, and then gets a chance to face down a mainline Mario game next round. If it flops this year, it’s got no excuses and people will just have to accept this game isn’t strong.

Leonhart’s Vote: Super Metroid

Leonhart’s Prediction: Super Metroid with 64.75%
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Moltar Status: hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
11/15/2015 6:11:11 PM#474
Kleenex’s Analysis

Call of Duty has been surprisingly potent in the contests its been in. I don’t think anyone expects much out of it, but it has always impressed me given that it’s a Call of Duty game. That game came out a long time ago, but I think people tend to look back on it fondly because it was before Call of Duty because “Call of Duty”. Super Metroid, on the other hand, has always left me wanting. Barely beating Mario Kart twice? Come on! If you think all this is leading up to me going to a major upset, well...you’re wrong. I still think the gap is too large for any funny business to happen, but I’m on the lookout for Metroid to disappoint yet again.

Super Metroid with 58%



Guest’s Analysis - spooky96

Ah, Call of Duty, the series we all love to hate, or at least pretend to hate. As years passed by Call of Duty's popularity has gone downhill. If a "Best 2009 GotY" poll were to happen in 2015, Uncharted 2 would absolutely destroy MW2. Anyhow, Super Metroid isn't one of the stronger game of the 90's but it should be able to around double CoD: 4 here, or at the very least get 60%. There's really not much else to say here, anyone who's been on GameFAQs for more than a year or two would realize that this just isn't Call of Duty's place. Back in the Black Ops II days there were topics which reached 500 easily, now topics hardly ever reach 50 posts. At this point I don't even know what or why I'm blabbering, so I'll just shut up.

spooky's Prediction: Super Metroid with 65%



Crew Consensus: Super victory for Super Metroid
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Moltar Status: hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
11/15/2015 6:16:13 PM#475
everyone basically within a percent of each other, and then there's kleenex
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http://myanimelist.net/profile/angryaria
<Die the death>! <Sentence to death>! <Great equalizer is the death>!!
it sure feels like Super Metroid is set to impress here, especially after SOTN went to town. I went low because I'm always scared to trust Suoer Metroid but I honestly expect it to double. it better!
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add the c and back away
iphonesience
Super Metroid needs to look good here if it wants to go against Galaxy.
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satoru iwata
Galaxy might just suck against metroid anyway I hope
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"I do because I can."
http://card.psnprofiles.com/1/Micer101.png
11/15/2015 8:05:49 PM#480
Division 6: Round 1 - Match 46 – (6) Super Mario Galaxy vs. (11) Dragon Age: Origins

Moltar’s Analysis

Poor GotF, the sequel got upset by ME and now there are doubts the original can't even beat a Dragon Age game. SMG is stronger than its predecessor since it came out at a much better time in the Wii's life. Plus Mass Effect would beat Dragon Age, so it wouldn't be wise to compare the two results.

Plus, they both have a direct opponent in Zelda TP, and Mario Galaxy did better on it even if there wasn't any SFF.

Galaxy should be fine here, and a good performance could make it the favorite again next round.

Moltar’s Bracket: Super Mario Galaxy

Moltar’s Prediction: Super Mario Galaxy - 60%



Transience’s Analysis

this seems like the perfect trap match. Galaxy shouldn't drop this but I bet it convinces some people to abandon Mario for Samus. it's like a repeat of Galaxy 2/Mass Effect but Galaxy should be better than Galaxy 2. (I'm not totally convinced that Dragon Age is far off from ME1)

I think Mario is a lot like Pokemon actually - people just like the ones they played as kids. Galaxy is a masterclass of game design but it can't beat the memory of 1-1. such is life on gamefaqs.

transience's prediction: Galaxy with 56.22%



Leon’s Analysis

Oh hey, these games were in the same division in GOTD and both of them faced Twilight Princess directly. Dragon Age got 31.13% and Mario Galaxy got 37.73%. Even if you give Dragon Age the most favorable interpretation of the data and assume TP didn’t SFF Mario Galaxy at all, that’s still a 58-59% win for Mario.

“But wait!” you might say. “We just saw a Bioware game beat a Mario Galaxy game earlier this round! Dragon Age has a chance!” And while it’s true that modern day Mario has not fared well thus far, Mario Galaxy 1 should be stronger than 2, and Mass Effect should be stronger than Dragon Age. I might be willing to give Dragon Age some benefit of the doubt and say it does well because the series seems to have gained some traction with Inquisition. Plus, Mario Galaxy never seems to be able to impress when it’s given the chance. I’d be pretty surprised if Dragon Age actually managed to win though.

Leonhart’s Vote: Super Mario Galaxy

Leonhart’s Prediction: Super Mario Galaxy with 58.75%



Kleenex’s Analysis

This is almost a fun match. Galaxy vs. Bioware part 2, but there’s a few things that are different this time around. Galaxy 1 is stronger than Galaxy 2. And Dragon Age is weaker than Mass Effect. Certainly, that should be enough to flip the result we saw a week ago. The Galaxy games are already kind of an embarrassment, but if Galaxy manages to lose this one, hoo boy. It definitely could happen too, Inquisition seems to have reignited some of the Dragon Age love that was lost with Dragon Age 2, but I think this is going to be just shy of being and exciting match.

Super Mario Galaxy with 52%



Guest’s Analysis - ZFS



Crew Consensus: Galaxy redemption
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Moltar Status: hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
zfs'd
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xyzzy
also we went pretty low on Galaxy. I thought I'd be the low one by a good bit.
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xyzzy
(edited 11/15/2015 8:30:28 PM)report
oh geez I forgot I was the guy!

So here are my thoughts on this. Dragon Age is a fairly popular WRPG, not nearly as much as Mass Effect, but BioWare's #2. Galaxy 2 might have lost to ME1, but Galaxy shouldn't have hat problem here, and in fact I think it'll set a good bar for Super Metroid to have to compete with.

Outside of the old games, Mario doesn't carry worldbeater popularity for some reason. I'm not sure what that's about, but GameFAQs treats Mario games after 64 the same as they would any other, but Galaxy, through sheer prestige and respect, should be able to put away Dragon Age here fairly easy. My theory that Mario Galaxy 2 would have aged well and been appreciated as time went on flew out the window earlier, so it's hard to predict it'll happen here, but Galaxy broke new ground and blew people away. Galaxy 2 was the equivalent of new DLC in modern terms. That's gotta count for something!

don't disappoint GameFAQs

Winner: Mario Galaxy with 63%
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satoru iwata
11/15/2015 9:17:05 PM#484
Division 6: Round 1 - Match 47 – (7) Bloodborne vs. (10) Final Fantasy XII

Moltar’s Analysis

Bloodborne is popular at the moment, but we've seen that outside of a few outliers, the older game from a bigger franchise on GameFAQs will win out. Even though FF12 is on the weaker side of the FF games, it should still be strong enough to take out the newer game here.

Moltar’s Bracket: Final Fantasy XII

Moltar’s Prediction: Final Fantasy XII - 57%



Transience’s Analysis

If this were Dark Souls, we might have something. Bloodborne is too new and too much of a retread to break through on a mass scale. Pretty much everyone refers to it as a Souls game which is accurate. It's the fourth one in six years with another one coming.

Meanwhile, the FF name has proved itself to be legit if nothing else. Bloodborne is probably on the lower half of the games in the bracket and while 12 is a low-tier FF, that's really enough. I'm surprised FF12 made it but it was given a very winnable match.

transience's prediction: Final Fantasy XII with 61.01%



Leon’s Analysis

This was one of SBAllen’s preview special matches, and thus we’ve had a little longer to digest this one than the others. What we’ve seen in the contest so far seems to point toward a Final Fantasy XII victory, at least for me. I leaned toward it from the beginning, and no result has really dissuaded me from it. While FFXII might be weak for a Final Fantasy game, it’s still going to have some strength because it is, in fact, a Final Fantasy game. Newer games have not done that well, and I dunno if Bloodborne even has that kind of staying power. Feels like one of those games that’s here this year and gone next year, but I could be completely wrong about that! It could certainly win because FFXII isn’t some insurmountable hurdle, but I’m sticking with XII here.

Leonhart’s Vote: Final Fantasy XII

Leonhart’s Prediction: Final Fantasy XII with 58.10%
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Moltar Status: hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
11/15/2015 9:17:08 PM#485
Kleenex’s Analysis

I wish I could see the result of the Dark Souls match before writing this, but no such luck! I thought I was being pretty clever taking Bloodborne in my bracket prior to the contest starting. Who even likes FF12! Well, I do but that’s besides the point. FF12 got smashed by Portal. Seems that the general opinion on the game has turned a corner since the last games contest we had. That, and the fact that Final Fantasy has been doing so well makes me regret that initial choice. Bloodborne was pretty hot when it came out earlier this year, but seems to have cooled down considerably since then. Unless the DLC that comes out next week reinvigorates interest, FF12 is probably the safer bet here.

Of course this all means nothing if Dark Souls put up like 80% yesterday, so there’s that.

Final Fantasy XII with 53%



Guest’s Analysis - ctes

Most people have favored with Final Fantasy XII in this one, but I've seen a few people picking Bloodborne. As someone who was very disappointed with FFXII, but really enjoyed Bloodborne, that'd be a cool upset. It'd be nice if I had already seen one of the Soul games have a match while writing this, but I think turning this before there's just 24 hours to go would be at its place. It doesn't matter for the result though.

We have some previous results from Final Fantasy XII. It lose in the first round back in 2009 against Twilight Princess and Half-Life 2, not by too much, so that's not too bad. It lost to Portal in 2010, but didn't do much worse than Mass Effect. I believe FFXII has aged well, I don't think it should be weaker, because all the hate it got has died down a bit, overshadowed by what FFXIII got. At roughly the same strength, it's not exactly strong, but can win some matches. Bloodborne I don't believe is very strong. It's much more well-received, sure, but hasn't been played by as many at all. Plus, FFXII has some name recognazion that might give a small boost, that's not what matters though. It's gonna be somewhat close I believe, but never really in doubt.

Bloodborne - 46.88%
Final Fantasy XII - 53.12%



Crew Consensus: FF12 is out for blood
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Moltar Status: hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
11/15/2015 10:07:15 PM#486
Division 6: Round 1 - Match 48 – (2) The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask vs. (15) Valkyria Chronicles

Moltar’s Analysis

I'm expecting this to be Zelda TP vs Skies of Arcadia - Part 2. Majora is arguably stronger than TP while Valkyria Chronicles is most likely weaker than SoA too.

So nothing surprising number-wise here, the sequel should go the same way as the original.

Moltar’s Bracket: Majora's Mask

Moltar’s Prediction: Majora's Mask - 75%



Transience’s Analysis

Zelda can blow out fodder better than anything else and Valkyria is certainly that. I don't see Majora going crazy here though. I just don't think it has the playrate (31% of the site hasn't played it) nor the unified fanbase behind it. It's certainly popular and people will default vote for Zelda before siding with generic anime game if they aren't familiar with either, but... I don't know. I don't see this being another high 80s kind of affair. Those are reserved for the OOTs and LTTPs of the world and Majora ain't that.

transience's prediction: Majora's Mask with 81.21%



Leon’s Analysis

Once again, Vyse, Aika, and Fina get fed to a Zelda game, but at least both Skies of Arcadia and Valkyria Chronicles got wins in GOTD. Zelda has been rocking things left and right so far, and I don’t see any reason for that to change here.

Leonhart’s Vote: Majora’s Mask

Leonhart’s Prediction: Majora’s Mask with 76.68%



Kleenex’s Analysis

It’s finally time for the reigning champ to show what it can do. Valkyria Chronicles is pretty much Skies of Arcadia level, so I’m going to put the baseline that Twilight Princess’s performance. Majora should be stronger than TP (although I actually might question that head-to-head), so it needs to shoot pretty high to not come off as disappointing as it begins its title defence. Will we finally get to figure out if Game of the Decade was a big fluke and Majora’s Mask was just acting as an Ocarina proxy? Maybe!

Zelda: Majora’s Mask with 75%



Guest’s Analysis - Luster Soldier

It's pretty clear that Valkyria Chronicles is going to be easily blown out by Majora's Mask, since this is the same game that got destroyed by Brawl in GotD. Majora's Mask would later go on to defeat Brawl in that contest, so it might make sense that Majora's Mask should put up a percentage similar to what Brawl got on this game.

But there's a problem with assuming Majora's Mask will put up a similar percentage to Brawl. Majora's Mask got heavily bandwagoned later in the contest and the strength it displayed against Brawl is not its natural strength. Although Majora's Mask could have gotten even stronger since we saw it in GotD, especially because it had a 3DS remake that came out earlier this year.

I guess a reasonable percentage for Majora's Mask to get in this match will be only slightly lower than what Brawl got.

Luster Soldier's Bracket: The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask
Luster Soldier's Prediction: The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask - 73.86%


Crew Consensus: Another Zelda blowout
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Moltar Status: hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
I should probably bother to look at past results of fodder games before just throwing a number out there
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xyzzy
Well easy matches today.
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Why do we exist?What happens when we stop existing?
The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past 88.02% 32386
Cave Story 11.98% 4410
TOTAL VOTES 36796

Deus Ex 30.23% 10951
Final Fantasy IV 69.77% 25275
TOTAL VOTES 36226

Metal Gear Solid V: The Phantom Pain 54.67% 19285
Perfect Dark 45.33% 15990
TOTAL VOTES 35275

Dark Souls 66.7% 23716
Sid Meier's Civilization V 33.3% 11842
TOTAL VOTES 35558

Crew Predictions: 39/44

What Happened: Old games soar to heaven and new games flop. Stop me if you've heard this before.

What Will Happen: Dark Souls/MGSV looking debatable. LTTP walks over everything.

Crew Prediction Challenge: points

Guest: 40
Leonhart: 40
Moltar: 38
transience: 36
Kleenex: 35

Crew Accuracy Challenge: Kleenex nails LTTP, Guest hits FF4, Moltar gets MGSV and beats me by .01% on Dark Souls.

Leonhart: 11
Kleenex: 9.5
Guest: 7.5
Moltar: 7.5
transience: 5.5
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xyzzy
man I could not possibly be more wrong about everything I've gone against the grain for this contest
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http://i.imgur.com/RHvCiY3.png
11/16/2015 6:56:24 AM#491
transience posted...
I should probably bother to look at past results of fodder games before just throwing a number out there


gross
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http://myanimelist.net/profile/angryaria
<Die the death>! <Sentence to death>! <Great equalizer is the death>!!
The Mana Sword posted...
man I could not possibly be more wrong about everything I've gone against the grain for this contest


Mario doubt always gets the good ones

score one for the guest
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satoru iwata
Mario doubt wasn't the problem when he picked Mario Maker!
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http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif
that was (probably) more fire emblem underestimation than anything

unless it loses then dkc2
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http://i.imgur.com/RHvCiY3.png
Guest hits FF4


*fist pumps*
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Hello, I'm Chris!
https://media.giphy.com/media/2ZtIpjwFFjLHLNREpCU/giphy.gif
Tomorrow things are tough. Only 1 match is really set.
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Why do we exist?What happens when we stop existing?
Safer_777 posted...
Tomorrow things are tough. Only 1 match is really set.


Shovel Knight isn't beating San Andreas
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http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif
I think all 4 matches are set, but the amount they win by is the interesting part.
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http://i.imgur.com/RHvCiY3.png
Time to end the topic.
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Why do we exist?What happens when we stop existing?
I mean really end it.
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Why do we exist?What happens when we stop existing?

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