11/11/2015 9:59:06 PM#251
Division 4: Round 1 - Match 32 – (2) Persona 4 vs. (15) 999: Nine Hours, Nine Persons, Nine Doors

Moltar’s Analysis

Great games right here.

Persona 4 has probably come a long way in the last 5 years, and it would definitely do better than 30% on RE4. Unfortunately it runs into a Zelda-sized roadblock next round.

Well it'll at least get to show off here against an even more obscure game.

Moltar’s Bracket: Persona 4

Moltar’s Prediction: Persona 4 - 75%



Transience’s Analysis

I was high on P4 going into the contest, thinking that maybe it could hold up to Twilight Princess somehow. With these low vote totals and how silly people are over Persona 4, why not a nice 40% showing. But then DQ8 embarrassed Persona 3 and I came back to earth. Oh, hey, this is a silly little JRPG that not a lot of people played. I think it's just too recent to really hit this website right now. For Persona 4 to really shine through, it's going to need to get the nostalgia ball rolling.

999 is a cute little game and the fanbase is larger than you'd think. It might be about the size of a Phoenix Wright on a good day, and Zero Time Dilemma (what a bad name) is going to be one of the bigger 2016 3DS titles. Obviously it can't beat Persona 4 but maybe it can impress. Why did both 999 and VLR make it into the bracket, anyway?

transience's prediction: Persona 4 with 68.93%



Leon’s Analysis

Should be interesting to see how high Persona 4 can go here, although it doesn’t particularly matter since it has little to no chance against Twilight Princess next round. It could’ve been a real wild card (get it) with the right draw, but it didn’t get one here. Persona 4 has seemed to get more popular over time, and while P3 flopped, I don’t think that means much for P4 here. It’ll be hard to gauge how much it’s gained this round since 999 is a total unknown. Persona 4 got 65% on Braid back in GOTD, and 999 is probably on the same level. If it can’t do much better than that here, it’s probably in for a big hurt next round.

Leonhart’s Vote: Persona 4

Leonhart’s Prediction: Persona 4 with 70.70%



Kleenex’s Analysis

Persona 4 got something of a lucky draw. There’s a number of other 15 seeds that would have given it a hard time, especially with how disappointed Persona 3 ended up being. They are obviously separate entities, with Persona 4 being the stronger of the two, but let’s not overplay just how strong it actually is. The game barely beat Dead Rising and got massacred by Resident Evil 4. While general Persona 4 fandom has risen since 2010, that’s not a particularly encouraging baseline. The upside is that it’s against something with a way lower baseline. I’m pretty surprised 999 and VLR even made it into the bracket, I had thought those games has mostly been forgotten. Maybe it was on the back of the recent announcement that ZE3 was happening. Either way, Persona 4 should be happy with an easy win here, because it’s the only win it’s going to get this year.

Persona 4 with 67%


Guest’s Analysis - Articuno2001

It is pretty annoying when you have two games you really like are facing off against each other in a contest match, even more annoying when you nominated one and it's getting into it's first match ever only to get completely destroyed. I think there's a lot of overlap of fanbase here despite the different genres - Persona 4 and 999 pretty much appeal to the same people and Persona 4 is a lot more liked than 999 will ever be (sadly).

Pick: Persona 4 with 74.47%


Crew Consensus: reach out to the truth
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Moltar Status: hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
whoa I don't remember going that low on P4
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yeah me either. feels like it should get in the 70s.
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iphonesience
you guys and your doubting ps1 final fantasy over ps1 resident evil
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xyzzy
I should have readjusted based on the SQUARE BOOST but alas
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I figured fft/mgs and ff7/mgs would make you remember what the ps1 generation is like!
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xyzzy
yeah but RE2 came out on the N64 too though
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I based my entire bracket on a square weakening. The square boost is screwing up with it.
The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim 66.62% 29439
Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney 33.38% 14751
TOTAL VOTES 44190

GoldenEye 007 55.93% 23922
Diablo II 44.07% 18851
TOTAL VOTES 42773

Metroid Prime 63.09% 27284
The Elder Scrolls III: Morrowind 36.91% 15964
TOTAL VOTES 43248

Half-Life 2 63.9% 26954
Demon's Souls 36.1%15226
TOTAL VOTES 42180

Crew Predictions: 25/28

What Happened: Skyrim struggles with PW early, ascends to heaven the rest of the match (but still below expectations); other matches are more or less in line with expectations

What Will Happen: All four winners have a shot at taking the eightpack

Crew Prediction Challenge: Points for all except Kleenex who missed on Diablo 2

Guest: 26
Moltar: 25
Leonhart: 25
transience: 23
Kleenex: 22

Crew Accuracy Challenge: Leon gets Skyrim, Guest gets 007, tran gets Prime and HL2

Leonhart: 8
Kleenex: 6.5
transience: 4.5
Moltar: 3.5
Guest: 3.5
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xyzzy
What is the email address for sending the write-ups? The sign up thread got purged.
I kinda wish Twilight Princess would drop even more so that I get a guest point! TP is not doing much worse at all compared to stat expectations, looks like age has been kind to it somehow.

How on earth does MGS4 fall off a cliff and Brawl not even make the contest but TP still keeps up its strength? Only thing I can think of is that TP is older so more nostalgic somehow? Maybe MGS4 will start to get more appreciation now that MGSV is getting criticism for not having enough plot? Ack.
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"Nothing I could do!"
-Darksydephil
mastermoltar@gmail.com
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add the c and back away
iphonesience
Thanks!
Okay guys I delivered a longer analysis, you happy now?

My analyses for Mario Galaxy vs. Dragon Age and Dark Souls vs. Civ5 are short though, and the last one is full of bad puns.

That Mario vs. Animal Crossing one everyone complained about was the first one I wrote. I just wanted to write something short and to the point, did I have to explain why Mario would SFF Animal Crossing or something? I mean, I get that "overthinking" is the point of the board but still, what much was there to write for that particular match? Or heck, for Fallout 3 vs. Undertale?
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"Nothing I could do!"
-Darksydephil
(edited 11/12/2015 7:46:28 AM)report
I suppose it doesn't even have to be long as long as there is something worthwhile about it. Like a crazy upset theory or something. It's not length, it's content.

If you think you can't say anything worthwhile, then just don't pick a guest analysis. Leave it for someone who can.
(edited 11/12/2015 8:43:20 AM)report
And I'd say there is quite a lot to write about Fallout vs Undertale.
yeah there is, because we've seen the rally and know to expect it. but what about these matches tomorrow? do you expect a rally or not? percentages fluctuate like crazy depending, as do the results. that's where it's hard.
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add the c and back away
iphonesience
ZeldaTPLink posted...
I suppose it doesn't even have to be long as long as there is something worthwhile about it. Like a crazy upset theory or something. It's not length, it's content.


Personally I'd rather read a very short "SMW > Animal Crossing" analysis than a nonsensical Lopen PHOENIX WRIGHT > SKYRIM analysis. Putting in content for the sake of having content doesn't result in something worthwhile IMO.
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Geothermal terpsichorean ejectamenta
rather read ... than a nonsensical Lopen... analysis.


You take that back
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Boring and mundane signature informing you I'm on a Droid
Now with more bold! Less italics due to bold.
(edited 11/12/2015 9:10:37 AM)report
I forget, which one did I sign up for? It's not in the opening post
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FC 5026-4424-6331 -- Native Vivillon type: Polar
Still need Marine, Sun, Icy Snow, Monsoon, River, and Jungle
ZeldaTPLink posted...
And I'd say there is quite a lot to write about Fallout vs Undertale.


Meant to say Fallout vs Life is Strange
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"Nothing I could do!"
-Darksydephil
11/12/2015 6:49:15 PM#272
Division 5: Round 1 - Match 33 – (1) The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time vs. (16) Hearthstone

Moltar’s Analysis

Hey look it's the heavy favorite to win the contest! On any given day, 99% of the time you hold this match and OoT smokes its opponent and we all move on.

However now we're living in a post-rally GameFAQs, so now I have to look at this match a little bit deeper and account for rally randomness. Hearthstone has a huge reddit and internet community, so it does have the fanbase to pull from out there.

However, this is OoT. Not only is it going to be the hardest game to rally against, but it's going to need a all-day long full rally in order just to keep up with the top game on the site. Link nearly beat a fully-fueled Draven in rallying, so Level 1 Hearthstone is going to need a massive push to do this. That's too much of a task for it.

(if it even gets a rally in the first place)

(ugh)

Moltar’s Bracket: Ocarina of Time

Moltar’s Prediction: Ocarina of Time – 80%



Transience’s Analysis

Okay we seem to have stabilized after Undertale day. Next is a game people talk about in the context of rallies a lot - Hearthstone. I have no idea why people would rally around Heartstone any more than any other popular game so I'm a little confused here. Is it assumed that every Blizzard game could have some wonkiness? Why Hearthstone? Is it just because there's a large population that can mobilize?

Yeah, it could happen because anything can happen in these contests with such low vote totals. Even Zelda isn't immune. But if there is one game that will shut it down before it starts, it's Ocarina of Time.

transience's prediction: Ocarina of Time with 80.34%



Leon’s Analysis

In this new age of rallies, who even knows what to predict here! Hearthstone was one of those games people thought could get a big rally and do something, but it got a bad matchup. The first round rally is the hardest one, because most rallies generally don’t organize before the match, and they don’t get a bandwagon involved until they pull a big upset. See: Draven’s round 1 vs. the rest of the contest, and you’ll see it next round from Undertale. Those first round rallies didn’t kick in until the middle of the match, and in Undertale’s case, it almost didn’t beat a game as weak as ME3 because it started so late. So when you’re facing the #1 game on the site, you can’t afford to wait until partway through the match to get started, so I feel like Hearthstone is dead before it even gets a chance, even if people do try to rally. Plus, as we saw with Link, the Legend of Zelda is hard to rally against. Pretty much any gaming community holds a lot of love for the series. Who knows what the percentage will be if any sort of rally materializes, so I’ll just predict with the assumption we don’t get one.

Leonhart’s Vote: Ocarina of Time

Leonhart’s Prediction: Ocarina of Time with 83.90%
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Moltar Status: hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
(edited 11/12/2015 6:49:38 PM)delete
11/12/2015 6:49:22 PM#273
Kleenex’s Analysis

People might not realize it, but this could end up being the most important match of the whole contest. We’ve already seen that the rallying menace has not been entirely expunged from our noble website. Now we have to sit and wonder, what other games have that potential. I definitely saw some pre-contest chatter about Hearthstone doing the impossible, but I just dismissed it as rampant paranoia still lingering from 2013’s debacle. Fast forward two weeks and now I’m not so sure.

Hearthstone is huge right now. It’s all over Twitch, there are big tournaments going around and it’s super accessible to anyone who’s interested. It probably has the highest rally ceiling of any game in the contest. The problem, however, is that I think that ceiling is still lower than Draven’s in 2013 and he only barely managed to beat Link. Ocarina is the big bad boss of this contest and running up against that buzzsaw in round 1 is probably going to make it tough for Hearthstone to get traction, especially if the effort doesn’t begin from minute one. Trying to predict a percentage for this is a total crapshoot, but I think Ocarina is likely safe. If not, you can throw this whole contest out the door.

Zelda: Ocarina of Time with 72%



Guest’s Analysis - Tsunami



Crew Consensus: Hearthstowned
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Moltar Status: hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
crew curse rip contest
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Lopen's analysis:

Hold onto your butts

Lopen's prediction:
Hearthstone with 50.40%
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
my rally will tear you apart
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
nice writeup Tsunami
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thelefty for analysis crew 2008 imo -tranny
I have a third degree burn in flame-o-nomics -Sir Chris
still a better read than Lopen's
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
sorry that happened
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
11/12/2015 7:59:30 PM#281
Division 5: Round 1 - Match 34 – (8) Suikoden II vs. (9) Monster Hunter 4U

Moltar’s Analysis

Because we all loved DQ8 vs P3 the first time.

In another match between obscure JRPGs we've got a Suikoden vs Monster Hunter. I know Suikoden is loved among those that played it, but MH4U is the bigger and more relevant game right now. The MH franchise is gaining traction in the States and MH4 definitely was well-received.

I don't know which fanbase is more devoted, but I'm going to back the game with the more active fanbase at the moment, and that is Monster Hunter. Seems a bit risky when old-RPGs have done well so far, but I think Suikoden is just a bit too obscure to really benefit from that boost.

Moltar’s Bracket: Monster Hunter 4U

Moltar’s Prediction: Monster Hunter 4U – 53%



Transience’s Analysis

I offered Josh my position here. If he takes it cool, if not there's this.

Monster Hunter 4 is the game with more mainstream value while Suikoden 2 is one of those PS1 games that will overperform. Suikoden 2's weakness is that it was hard to find for well over a decade and isn't as widely played as a Xenogears or even a Legend of Dragoon. It's really loved though and if enough people have played it, it'll do well. The site shrinking really helps a game like that.

MH4U is like GameFAQs's highest rated game. Higher than Ocarina, higher than Chrono Trigger, everything. That fanbase is wild. They aren't numerous and they won't mobilize or anything, but man, nothing touches Monster Hunter in terms of dedication. It's basically on the level of an MMO.

This match basically comes down to if you trust the new and hip thing or the classic cult game that is more in the site's wheelhouse. I'll back Monster Hunter but I don't have a strong opinion either way.

transience's prediction: Monster Hunter with 53.33%



Leon’s Analysis

I don’t know how you even properly predict this match. This is the Vyse/Laharl of this contest. Suikoden has been nothing but bad fodder in all of its appearances (although it finally got released on PSN, so maybe that helped), and we have very little data on Monster Hunter. It’s huge in Japan, of course, but it’s still niche here. Niche is probably enough to beat Suikoden II though. This could really be decided by whichever game has more brackets and DAT TOP OPTION FACTOR, so I will lean Suikoden II, but who even knows.

Leonhart’s Vote: Suikoden II

Leonhart’s Prediction: Suikoden II with 55.55%



Kleenex’s Analysis

Man, I dunno. Suikoden II used to be popular - the whole series was until Konami took it out behind the woodshed. Legacy jRPGs have been doing well so far, but those all have the Squaresoft on the cover. GameFAQs doesn’t even like Monster Hunter! It might have better name recognition, but even that I’m not sure of. This is really a total shot in the dark. I have Monster Hunter in my bracket, but I think that game is bad and PS1-era RPGs have been impressing so I’ll go with the game I like more instead. Seems solid.

Suikoden II with 55%



Guest’s Analysis - pjbasis

Suikoden is really weak, but Monster Hunter? I can't believe an MH game even got in this. Cult classic PS1 game vs. cult classic 3DS game? Yeah this shouldn't be close. Suikoden is just bad enough to not make it a blowout, but Monster Hunter could be guttertrash too. I'll play it safe since my blowouts have not been panning.

Suikoden II - 56.29%



Crew Consensus: Suikoden is the slight favorite over MH4U
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Moltar Status: hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
Is this our first legit split decision?
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11/12/2015 8:05:18 PM#283
yes
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Moltar Status: hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
Lopen's unofficial guest analysis:

Suikoden has never been too popular here, but almost no one but a few really loud people really care about Monster Hunter either. I feel like this match is mostly decided by bracket voting, and maybe where the rallied votes go in the event of Hearthstone nonsense, and I feel like Suikoden 2 has the advantage two-fold with this. On GameFAQs it's the more recognizable name, and it's the higher seed.

I'm about as confident as I can be in this one considering it's Vyse vs Laharl.

Lopen's unofficial guest prediction:
Suikoden 2 with 60.28%
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
I just PM'd you my write-up, Moltar. Sorry for the lateness.
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3DS Friend Code: 2036-7960-4519
I'm kinda leaning Suikoden too right now. who cares though.
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add the c and back away
iphonesience
I say we let Lopen's prediction fill in whenever the Guest no shows.
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11/12/2015 9:01:05 PM#288
Division 5: Round 1 - Match 35 – (5) Okami vs. (12) Warcraft III: Reign of Chaos

Moltar’s Analysis

Okami should be fine here. Warcraft was pretty much equal to Morrowind, which just got 37% on Prime. Okami did over 4% better on Prime years ago, so from that alone it's straight up stronger. Okami is also still looked at as a highly-respected game, so I don't feel like it will have fallen off a cliff or something since then.

Moltar’s Bracket: Okami

Moltar’s Prediction: Okami - 59%



Transience’s Analysis

Okami's legit. I have to keep telling myself this every time we see it. I have a really hard time believing it's as strong as we think and I feel like it could fall off a cliff at any time. Games like this have a tendency to come and go. Okami's been weird in that there isn't a crazy loud fanbase for it and it just gained strength on its merits of being a Zelda-like with a different style. It'll beat WC3 easy enough - the question will be if it can stand up to the FF9s and KH1s of the world.

transience's prediction: Okami with 62.11%



Leon’s Analysis

I feel like Warcraft III might do better here than I originally expected. It went 50/50 with Morrowind in GOTD, and Morrowind is currently putting up 37% on Prime, while Okami put up 42%. Of course, it’s possible Morrowind is benefiting from Elder Scrolls being more popular overall than it was since Skyrim came out and Warcraft will flop. I mean, Okami wins regardless, but I’ve gotta find something to fill this writeup with! I’m just saying it won’t surprise me if Okami only goes mid-50s here or something because I figure most people will be expecting more.

Leonhart’s Vote: Okami

Leonhart’s Prediction: Okami with 57.75%



Kleenex’s Analysis

This is another match that could potentially be swayed by whatever happens in OoT vs. Hearthstone. If you get a bunch of Blizzard fans in here, there’s a chance Warcraft pulls this upset off. That aside, Okami is a pretty safe bet. Warcraft only went 50/50 with Morrowind, which just two days ago managed around 37% on Metroid Prime. Okami got 42% against Prime in Game of the Decade, so there’s your x-stats pick. That still gives Okami a little bit of wiggle room if some Warcraft votes spill over from the hypothetical Hearthstone rally, but it’s impossible to know how big or small or nonexistent that might. I’m going to stick with the non-rally outcome and say Okami takes this comfortably.

Okami with 60%



Guest’s Analysis - meche313

When the bracket came out, I looked at this match and picked Okami without thinking about it twice. Okami is one of my favorite games and I have never played a Warcraft game so that is the result I would like to see. However, after taking a closer look at this match, it seems that this might be closer than what I expected it to be.

I'm sure the other members of the Crew will talk about it, but all we need to do is look at Morrowind and Okami's performances against Metroid Prime (Morrowind beat Warcraft III by less than a percent in GoTD). Morrowind scored 36% while Okami scored 41.8%. Factor in the good possibility that Warcraft has gone down since the last contest and Okami should defeat Warcraft in a 60-40 match.

Okami wins with 61%



Crew Consensus: Okami brushes away the competition
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Moltar Status: hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
oh I didn't think about Blizzard fans voting Warcraft 3. huh.
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xyzzy
I wanted to add that I have Okami beating FF9/KH. Crazy upset, but not imposible. Okami needs to go 62%+ to keep my confidence up...
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3DS Friend Code: 2036-7960-4519
It's def not impossible. Just unlikely.
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"Have you ever wondered if there was more to life, other than being really, really, ridiculously good looking?"
So my Top 5 Oracle predictions have two of Twilight Princess's GotD matches in it.
And I'm about .15% away from today's.

I'm like...really good at predicting Twilight Princess's strength I guess.
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LongLiveraytan
It's within .5% of what the X-Stats predicted, too. Guess it's pretty consistent and the Vyse Fodder Line is still in play!
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Monster Hunter is gonna beat Suikoden calling this
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satoru iwata
(edited 11/12/2015 9:34:24 PM)report
11/12/2015 9:44:57 PM#295
Division 5: Round 1 - Match 36 – (4) Final Fantasy IX vs. (13) Kingdom Hearts

Moltar’s Analysis

So pre-contest I took FF9 and didn't really think about it until hours before lockdown. Probably not the wisest decision as this match should be very close on paper.

With KH2 delivering that Ulti-style blowout on MGS4 and FF8 underperforming against Vice City (pre-tumblr), KH is looking very good going into this match. KH fans are devoted, and they seem to like both games, as witnessed by them going even in their 1v1 bout years ago. This isn't like a P3 and P4 thing where the fanbase vastly supports the latter over the former.

Pre-FF7 games have also looked a lot better than the post-FF7 games, so I don't think FF9 is going to go nuts here. "B-b-b-but Moltar!" You scream, "The Square hierarchy says FF > KH!" Yeah, but I don't think FF9 is going to be strong enough to capitalize on that anymore, not with what we've seen so far from New Square and FF9's 2010 opponents all underperforming.

Therefore, I'm once against going against my bracket and with the current contest trends, which lean towards KH.

Moltar’s Bracket: Final Fantasy IX

Moltar’s Prediction: Kingdom Hearts - 54%



Transience’s Analysis

Alright, here we go. This match has had a ton of discussion. FF9 is somehow the bracket favourite and while I hope it wins -- after all, Kingdom Hearts is terrible -- I just don't see it.
At a high level, here's how I see the Square hierarchy is on this website.

Top Tier: FF7
High Tier: CT, FF6, FF10
Mid: KH1, KH2, FF8
Low Tier: FF9
Bottom Tier: FF12, FF4, Xenogears, Chrono Cross, etc
FF13 Tier: FF13, FF13-2, FF13-3

That was before the contest started. Now, I've backed PS1 games hard in this contest, but that has been more that PS1 values without the FF name were undervalued. People played RPGs like crazy. All of them. By the time we got to the PS2, people just played Square RPGs. The gap between an FF10 and a Shadow Hearts is massive, but put it on the PS1 and it's legit. It's just how our audience grew up and played games.

I don't think Final Fantasy 8 and 9 are significantly stronger than the Xenogears's and Chrono Cross's of the world. FF9 has never had a great contest result. (No, Vivi > Mario doesn't count. At all.) There are polls out there that show FF9 growing over time within the series, but what about outside the series? I'm not seeing it.

Then you've got the contest results. FF8 bombed before Undertale made it look halfway respectable. We need more data on this to say it definitively, but under 60% on GTA is not good. Xenogears put 47% on KOTOR which puts it at around 45% on FF9 if it stayed constant. That's... not great.

On the other side, you've got Kingdom Hearts 2 blitzing MGS4. I think that was an impressive result no matter what you thought about a MGS4 deboost. I've also heard people say that KH has fallen over time, but I'm not seeing why? That series has seemed as popular as ever and KH3 has some real buzz on this website, probably more than FF15.

I just don't see this as being debatable. I really hope that FF9 wins because it's great but I'm not seeing it. It needs to hope for some FF > KH SFF or something. Not buying it. I wouldn't take FF8 over KH1 at this point either.

transience's prediction: Kingdom Hearts with 59.14%
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Moltar Status: hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
11/12/2015 9:45:09 PM#296
Leon’s Analysis

This was one of my most anticipated round one matches as soon as I saw the bracket, and hopefully it will live up to the hype. Square seems to be on the upswing, as FF and KH have both looked pretty good thus far. This is a big match in terms of the Square “hierarchy.” The Square Hierarchy says FF > KH, and we’ve seen this borne out in contests. Kingdom Hearts has never beaten Final Fantasy in a contest match, but it has almost always stood up to it like a champ. Sora has stayed close to Squall in the way too many matches they’ve had together except one. Kingdom Hearts held up really well to FFX in 2009. Going off the grid a bit and looking at POTDs, KH regularly beats FF in those things now. Kingdom Hearts has supplanted Final Fantasy as the Square series of choice for a lot of people, especially in America. Look at the Geolocation polls for any poll FF and KH are in together. It’s kind of staggering.

That being said, Kingdom Hearts has still got to prove it can do it one-on-one. Final Fantasy is still the favorite until proven otherwise. I think I’ll let Ric Flair take it from here because he said it better than I can:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yjW9UXoKU2s

WOOOOOOOOOOOOO! C’mon, Kingdom Hearts! Beat the man!

Leonhart’s Vote: Kingdom Hearts

Leonhart’s Prediction: Kingdom Hearts with 51.05%



Kleenex’s Analysis

Man, there’s a lot going on today. Back in BGE2, Kingdom Hearts was a little bit weaker than FFX. In Game of the Decade, FF9 was significantly weaker than FFX, but there’s probably too much SFF in both those matches to use that comparison properly. Based strictly on those past performances, though I’d favor Kingdom Hearts in this match. There are still a ton of factors to take in account that could alter the trajectory of this match. Does FF9 fall into that range of games getting this supposed Square boost? Do the fabled Hearthstone ralliers prefer FF9 to Kingdom Hearts? Why do we abbreviate FF9 with a number but FFX with a letter? The answer to all these questions and more, next time!

Kingdom Hearts with 53%
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Moltar Status: hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
11/12/2015 9:46:08 PM#297
Guest’s Analysis - Bane_Of_Despair

While not the most contested match by far, this is still a fairly up-in-arms battle. It's 57/43 on the Guru for Final Fantasy IX to win, and I'm on the side of Kingdom Hearts. I just gotta man! Also I actually think Kingdom Hearts has a sizable chance of winning outside of my bias. While not quite the powerhouse it could be, Kingdom Hearts as a series has been fairly respectable in contests. In the only contest both games were in with 2009 BGE, Kingdom Hearts looked quite a bit better than Final Fantasy IX. The only thing I will say to this is that Final Fantasy IX has most assuredly grown stronger over the years. Even with the slow gameplay it remains as the quirky and cute game of the series. I could definitely seeing it beating Final Fantasy VIII in this day and age despite losing to it in 2009. Vivi beating Mario (my favorite match of the entire 2013 contest) might not truly say anything but it can't hurt it I'm sure.

Kingdom Hearts on the other hand is more of a mixed bag in terms of whether it has gained or lost strength in the years. "But hype for KH3! And look how well KH2 JUST did in this contest!" Of course, but the fact that for a lot of the more casual fans the last "main" KH game was KH2 back 10 years ago doesn't do it any favors. KH2 is also regarded as the better game, and even then a lot of people are just tired of the convoluted story it has been weaving (as much as I love it). But there has been progress in terms of KH3 actually making some strides to being in development, even with no release date any time soon. Also, the factor I'm banking on the most, KH fans are fucking devoted and insane. Most of them at least. I think it can work its way to a win, but it'll be tougher than in the past for sure.

Kingdom Hearts with 53.22%



Crew Consensus: DARKNESS sweeps the Crew
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Moltar Status: hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
You guys choosing KH, all of you? FF9 got this.
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satoru iwata
Wooo look how on point I am with my percentage
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"Have you ever wondered if there was more to life, other than being really, really, ridiculously good looking?"
WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

wait what

not even one FFIX pick?

uh oh
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http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif

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