Best. Game. Ever. Contest Analysis Crew - Part 2

Aw yeah I have the low FFVIII prediction

now hopefully to be very wrong and not win the point
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http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif
shock and awe leon goes low with ff8

and I go high what is this
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xyzzy
I told you I always low ball FFVIII! I'm afraid to go high with it!
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Lopen's Unofficial Guest Analysis:

Can't help but feel like anti-GTA sentiment is yesterday's news and GTA is going to do fine this contest. And if any game is kinda the wrong one to take advantage of anti-votes it's FFVIII. An underwhelming win for FFVIII that shouldn't be used to discount it next round coming soon, I think.

Lopen's prediction:
Final Fantasy VIII with 59.45%
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
yeah I've been thinking that my number is a little too crazy. Vice City seemed legit, moreso than the rest. this is probably closer to 65% than 71%.
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xyzzy
VC vs FF8 will be today's most balanced match, and even that'll be be heavily one sided. 65% seems about right while there's no idea how well FO3, ME3 and SMW are going to perform. They can all range from 67+ % to 90%.
I still think the Undertale match is going to be the most interesting today. the other three are jokes, but that one could be a little weird just because of how weird both entries are. neither should probably even be in the contest.
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xyzzy
Lopen posted...
And if any game is kinda the wrong one to take advantage of anti-votes it's FFVIII.


wow you literally said the exact opposite of me
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Alright, I just sent in my write-up for an upcoming match. This time around, I sent it by email since Moltar seems to prefer emails over GameFAQs PMs.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ!
Tran should be right with this one. If FF8 can't hit 70% I'd be surprised. GTA holds up better than most of these casual hits, but it's Final Fantasy on its home field. And with no casual voters!
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satoru iwata
also the real match today is the Mario World 87% blowout
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satoru iwata
11/9/2015 10:15:30 PM#62
Division 3: Round 1 - Match 24 – (2) Super Mario World vs. (15) Animal Crossing New Leaf

Moltar’s Analysis

https://soundcloud.com/stalefishies/better-have-my-bells

If you enjoyed watching a Super Mario game blowing out fodder today, then I've got some good news for you about this match.

Moltar’s Bracket: Super Mario World

Moltar’s Prediction: Super Mario World - 82%



Transience’s Analysis

I did not know that Animal Crossing was in this contest. It's not the worst game in this contest but Mario World could make it look real bad if there's any overlap here.

We're talking about a 1991 platformer and a 2011-ish housing/economy sim so I don't think there's really any overlap. If anything, the fact that Mario World is an all-time game will grind it into the dust more than anything.

transience's prediction: Mario World with 83.78%



Leon’s Analysis

Not much to say about this one. It’s Super Mario World against one of Nintendo’s lesser franchises. This won’t be pretty. We’ve seen the elite games put up crazy blowout numbers thus far, and I don’t expect anything different here. Just remember that SBAllen apparently thought New Leaf was more deserving of a spot in this contest than Mario 1 or Zelda 1.

Leonhart’s Vote: Super Mario World

Leonhart’s Prediction: Super Mario World with 82.45%



Kleenex’s Analysis

Animal Crossing is pretty damn low on the GameFAQs Nintendo hierarchy. Its only other appearance was a loss to World of Warcraft in Game of the Decade. It wasn’t even really that close, either. There’s a chance that New Leaf stronger than the original Animal Crossing - I’d probably put better than even odds on that, actually - but when anything related to Animal Crossing has failed to even make that smallest of splashes in any poll, contest or not, it’s not looking good. Mario World, on the other hand, it big time. Likely a top 5 Nintendo game, it should be able to make Animal Crossing get in like real quick-like. That only hitch here is that Mario 3 didn’t exactly look great yesterday. Yes, we live in a world where 83% wasn’t meeting expectations, but so it goes. In fact, all the Nintendo games we’ve seen so far have all been just shy of impressive. Maybe that’s just because the Square games have been killing it, or maybe it’s a sign of things to come. Who knows.

It seems like we’re on our way to a Mario 3/Mario World division final and I think that World has the pre-game edge, so this is a chance for it to assert its dominance. Watch it outdo Mario 3 in percentage. That would be fun.

Super Mario World with 81%



Guest’s Analysis - LinkMarioSamus

Get ready for the blowout of the contest!

Super Mario World with 87%


Crew Consensus: Super Mario World of Hurt
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Moltar Status: hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
Bit disappointed in RBY today, but would be careful of reading too much into it. Pokemon's a different beast in close matches than in blowouts. Would rather have SMB3 > RBY than the reverse now though. Sonic 2 pulled through (more evidence of old > new), The Walking Dead bombed out, and AoEII did a fair bit better than I expected against SMB3, holding 16% of the vote.

Fallout 3/Life is Strange: Well Fallout 3's never had trouble blowing out weak western games in the past, and this shouldn't be any different. 80% here we come.

Undertale/Mass Effect 3: So Mass Effect pulled off a good win against SMG2, but ME3 probably attracts some anti-voting so it likely won't do quite as well here as a main entry in a strong series might be expected to. Undertale is well liked, but has a tiny playrate, so this should be at least a doubling.

FFVIII/Vice City: So Vice City got 34% against RE4. I'd probably take FFVIII > RE4 after FFX dismissed it so easily, so I suppose I should go higher with FFVIII here. I think Vice City has probably the most nostalgia/respect of the GTAs, so it won't weaken quite so hard with time as the rest of them. Still getting doubled.

Super Mario World/Animal Crossing: New Leaf: So, uh, I guess SBA doesn't like Animal Crossing. Nintendo SFF beatdowns can be notoriously brutal, and SMW seems like just the kind of respected lightning rod that will annihilate AC.
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We are living our lives
Abound with so much information
(edited 11/9/2015 10:18:21 PM)report
I wrote my piece before Mario 3 struggled to get 83% on Age of friggin' Empires. kinda doubting that Mario World crosses 80% here.
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xyzzy
Guest’s Analysis - LinkMarioSamus

Get ready for the blowout of the contest!


why do you sign up for these things
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xyzzy
an analysis fitting of the guest
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http://i.imgur.com/RHvCiY3.png
I'm not sure that's the opposite of what you said. We just had opposite spins on the same thing I think. You think both getting anti-voted will make FFVIII look better than usual, which isn't necessarily wrong. I think FFVIII being anti-voted as well as GTA means it'll gain less than less hated games will. Which isn't necessarily wrong!

Lopen's Guest Analysis:

If SMB3 can't do it, SMW will in this SFF affair. I believe

Lopen's prediction:
Super Mario World with 90.07%
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
transience posted...
Guest’s Analysis - LinkMarioSamus

Get ready for the blowout of the contest!


why do you sign up for these things


hey man he had three writeups to do

they can't all be masterpieces
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Hey he'll probably take home the point.
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We are living our lives
Abound with so much information
I think Age of Empires was being a bit underrated. Like, if StarCraft can do alright there's no reason AOE2 has to be the weakest game ever. Besides, how many non-Link/Zelda entities have approached 90%!
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satoru iwata
well, right now I'm about one match away from calling Nintendo into question this contest. when CT, FF6 and FF7 have the three best performances of the first round so far, it makes me wonder. the best we've seen is Melee which doubled a game that had a lot of reason to drop and Wind Waker who just beat up another Nintendo game.

show me what you've got, Mario World.
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xyzzy
(though I guess Mario World is facing Nintendo too. I might need to wait for Zelda.)
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xyzzy
The Return of Square

I believe
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ZFS posted...
I think Age of Empires was being a bit underrated. Like, if StarCraft can do alright there's no reason AOE2 has to be the weakest game ever. Besides, how many non-Link/Zelda entities have approached 90%!


http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/2433-mushroom-division-round-1-super-mario-bros-vs-madden-nfl
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thelefty for analysis crew 2008 imo -tranny
I have a third degree burn in flame-o-nomics -Sir Chris
BOOM!

Tough-actin' Tinactin
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I'm actually okay with the thought of Nintendo kind of sort of 'deboosting,' if that makes sense. Not that Nintendo isn't housing all the top games, or is in 'trouble,' but the utter Nintendo domination probably won't shine In a contest with low vote totals, a more older, dedicated voter pool, and a Nintendo not doing so well in the modern console/portable space. There's nothing to fill the void, but there is always the old alternative -- Square!

I still think we just might have a high ceiling on these blowouts and people might be expecting too much. 80% is no joke as a blowout. Anything much higher and you might as well deal up some real Tanner fodder. Also, expectations might have something to do with the Square blowouts -- when people expect the worst from FF6, FF7 and CT they can only look good when they do what they should do. I mean, CT did great, but it was against Ratchet! It was more impressive because the last few years we've gotten used to Crono losing to a glitch.
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satoru iwata
(edited 11/9/2015 10:36:17 PM)report
Haha football games might be GameFAQs's worst enemy
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satoru iwata
Nintendo deboost?

all aboard the Skyrim train
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Dr voltchball - best in the world.
raylan is awesome
I still stand by the idea that Prime can beat Skyrim. I didn't take it in my bracket, but something tells me Skyrim's gonna bomb to the lofty expectations placed on it!

(top 10 game I do not think so)
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satoru iwata
Don't have to be top 10 to beat Prime!
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okay, now we're getting somewhere. yeah, CT beat down a weak game, but like Age of Empires 2. I'm not buying any argument that says that game is notable. I'm also fine with saying that the match doesn't matter - but Square is showing a trend.

here's a crazy thought - what if there really is something to this and FF7 beats OOT? I'll shut this down when I see OOT in a couple days and see that everything is still normal, but I dunno. I'm seeing a lot of good things from Square and I'm really looking forward to seeing if it can stand up. this is the first time it's looked legit in a really long time. this is totally premature but it's what I'm feeling this first week.
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xyzzy
I think I just need to wait until Goldeneye/Diablo 2 before I go too deep. if Goldeneye struggles then we might be on to something.
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xyzzy
Oh, don't get me wrong, I'm not meaning to say AOE2 is noteworthy, just not the turbofodder kind of game people expected of it. Yeah, it's a PC RTS, but so is StarCraft, you know? AOE2 was huge at the same time it was. Just another view to throw into the mix.

I'd need to see OOT before saying anything about FF7 beating it. I do think that remake news might have done that game some good, in terms of goodwill and rekindling people's love for the game, but anything topping OOT would be huge. Like, I think that'd be as shift worthy as Nintendo in 05.
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satoru iwata
the secret to Nintendo's strength has been avoiding full 1-on-1 24 hour brackets

now that we have them again Square will rise again
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well, I laid out my case back in my Xenogears writeup. I think the site shrinking brings it back to its roots, so to speak. no evidence there, just a feeling.
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add the c and back away
iphonesience
It's not gonna reverse OoT being top dog.

Let's not even joke about it. Like FFX taught us false hope is bad.
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LongLiveraytan
I agree! I compared it a bit to 2002 pre-contest, that it would be more similar to the old old days than it would 2009/2010, just because you've lost so many people who better represent modern gaming trends and attitudes. It's why I expected FF6 and CT to be way more popular they have been these past few years. It might just be a few wacky favorite polls, but when FF6 is winning those again and Luigi is beating Mario we have arrived back to old GameFAQs.
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satoru iwata
yeah it's a longshot. it was a what if, not an 'I actually think this will happen' kind of thing.
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xyzzy
ZFS posted...
Luigi is beating Mario


yes please
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In fact, I based a lot of my bracket around the idea of older games dominating and stuff like CT and FF6 going deep in the contest. Well, until they run into FF7, anyway. Wind Waker beating FF6 seems crazy to me, honestly.
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satoru iwata
(edited 11/9/2015 10:57:42 PM)report
FF6/Wind Waker is a huge test. FFT/Mario 64 is a good litmus test before that. we don't really good any good Square/Nintendo matches until round 3 at the earliest.
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xyzzy
ZFS posted...
In fact, I based a lot of my bracket around the idea of older games dominating and stuff like CT and FF6 going deep in the contest. Well, until they run into FF7, anyway. Wind Waker beating FF6 seems crazy to me, honestly.


http://i.imgur.com/qWBbBwt.png

you and me, we think alike
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xyzzy
Oh man you went World? I wanted to, but I didn't believe this site had gotten past the N64 era hype.
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satoru iwata
I will never believe that 3d Mario will top 2d Mario

need to prove it to me
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xyzzy
c'mon Mario 3

you can do it
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transience posted...
I will never believe that 3d Mario will top 2d Mario


Basic truths like these keep the world going, but I dunno. Might be time to whip out a poll.
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satoru iwata
I did a poll a couple weeks ago. the results were like 87-87 between World and 64.
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xyzzy
Oh, really? See! 64 love is strong, think it's the top Mario now. It's that late 90s bias. Watch out for Banjo
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satoru iwata
(edited 11/9/2015 11:16:32 PM)report
like I said, I'll believe it can top a 2d Mario 1v1 when I see it. just gotta get Pokemon outta here
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xyzzy

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