Best. Game. Ever. Contest Analysis Crew - Part 2

11/9/2015 7:23:30 AM#1
Hey everyone! Welcome to the Best. Game. Ever. Contest Analysis Crew topic!

EPISODE 1: We're Already Cursed

Starring - Master Moltar

Transience

Leonhart

Kleenex

Guest Starring - Guest

http://i.imgur.com/MHfPt7x.gif



Fallout 3/Life is Strange - LMS
Undertale/ME3 - AKJ
GTA:VC/FF8 - spooky96
SMW/Animal Crossing - LMS

Skyrim/PW - Luster Soldier
Goldeneye/Diablo 2 - TRT
MP/Morrowind - Magmortar
HL2/Demon's Souls - firefdr
SM64/MK8 - tennisboy213
FFT/RE2 - mespirit
Zelda TP/SoA - LMS
P4/999 - Articuno2001

The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time vs Hearthstone -
Suikoden II vs Monster Hunter 4U - pjbasis
Okami vs Warcraft III: Reign of Chaos - meche313
Final Fantasy IX vs Kingdom Hearts - Bane_Of_Despair
Xenoblade Chronicles vs Donkey Kong Country 2 - ZeldaTPLink
Fire Emblem: Awakening vs Super Mario Maker - Applekidjosh
Banjo-Kazooie vs Baldur's Gate II: Shadows of Amn - whatisurnameplz
Castlevania: Symphony of the Night vs Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney Trials and Tribulations -


The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past vs Cave Story -
Deus Ex vs Final Fantasy IV -
Metal Gear Solid V vs Perfect Dark - Xeybozn
Dark Souls vs Civilization V -
Super Metroid vs Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare - spooky96
Super Mario Galaxy vs Dragon Age: Origins - LMS
Bloodborne vs Final Fantasy XII -
The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask vs Valkyria Chronicles - Luster Soldier
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Moltar Status: hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
Kleenex saves the crew from a new curse!
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Why do we exist?What happens when we stop existing?
I demand lopen be unofficially added to the first post
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Boring and mundane signature informing you I'm on a Droid
Now with more bold! Less italics due to bold.
lopen said I had to make bad picks if I was going to take his spot
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http://i.imgur.com/RHvCiY3.png
Dantezoid posted...
I demand lopen be unofficially added to the first post

shhh don't spoil later topic first post additions
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no space
all business
..Hate you guys so much right now.

My original Oracle pick for SMB3 would've been really good, but everyone was taking such high numbers here that I thought I was overestimating AoE2.
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FC 5026-4424-6331 -- Native Vivillon type: Polar
Still need Marine, Sun, Icy Snow, Monsoon, River, Jungle, and Ocean
I can see why you'd listen to me since I'm dominating the Accuracy Challenge right now and everything but like I said, when I miss, I miss big.
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http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif
I actually dropped my oracle for Mario 3, too. not by enough though. Mario sux CT to the finals just gotta beat ff6/7
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add the c and back away
iphonesience
now that I know people hinge their oracle predictions on our writeups I'm gonna start going way out there on random ones to throw them off
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http://i.imgur.com/RHvCiY3.png
this isn't even my highest Mario 3 pick

transience's prediction:

Mario 3: 107.13%
Generic Football Game That Would Lose to Madden: -5.52%
Game Kids Played in a Library to Simulate Natural Disasters: 1.56%
Obscure Game 14 People Have Played: -3.17%

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add the c and back away
iphonesience
The Mana Sword posted...
now that I know people hinge their oracle predictions on our writeups I'm gonna start going way out there on random ones to throw them off


I thought you were already doing that

if you start trying to be "wacky" you might wind up being more accurate by accident
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http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif
11/9/2015 6:47:56 PM#13
tag
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http://myanimelist.net/profile/angryaria
<Die the death>! <Sentence to death>! <Great equalizer is the death>!!
I thought that .gif was supposed to be me?
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
I know that's my reaction whenever I read a Lopen analysis
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http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif
no matches yet? Moltar must have dared to have a life
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add the c and back away
iphonesience
no time for a life with four matches a day
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http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif
we're imprisoned for a few more days too
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add the c and back away
iphonesience
thanks for that Bacon
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http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif
11/9/2015 7:09:15 PM#20
the other day I was up in (insert city) and drove past (insert business) that Moltar works (or used to work?) at and wondered if he was up there

what an enticing anecdote
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http://myanimelist.net/profile/angryaria
<Die the death>! <Sentence to death>! <Great equalizer is the death>!!
11/9/2015 7:14:52 PM#21
transcience posted...
no matches yet? Moltar must have dared to have a life


really eager for some in-depth analysis on this amazing next string of super interesting matches huh
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Moltar Status: hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
11/9/2015 7:18:23 PM#22
Division 3: Round 1 - Match 21 Ė (3) Fallout 3 vs. (14) Life is Strange

Moltarís Analysis

Under the old 1/2 match/es a day format, we'd be in for a snoozefest streak starting with this match for the rest of the division. Predictible winners and blowouts galore!

Fallout 3 is one of the strongest western games on the site while Life is Strange...isn't. It's very new and definitely doesn't have the playrate of Fallout, and that alone is going to kill it here. Sure, its dedicated fans are going to vote for it, but Fallout has way more of those.

Moltarís Bracket: Fallout 3

Moltarís Prediction: Fallout 3 - 80%



Transienceís Analysis

Man. Life is Strange draws Fallout 3 on Fallout 4 day. Good luck with that!

Life is Strange is a pretty fun little game but it's completely outmatched here. It has so many things working against it: genre, age, episodic and now fallout 4. I've actually heard that people have some negative things to say about Fallout 4 -- shock and awe, uber-hyped game receives backlash - but that shouldn't be evident by the time this match happens.

I'm writing this before the Walking Dead match but I see LIS as a poor man's Walking Dead, one that is about equivalent in quality but didn't get nearly the same level of mindshare and is a bit of a descendent of the Walking Dead style of adventure game. If Life is Strange avoids a tripling, it's done well.

transience's prediction: Fallout 3 with 82.34%



Leonís Analysis

I donít really know how to predict this match, in terms of percentages. Fallout 3 obviously wins, but what do people think of Life is Strange? Itís a 2015 episodic game whose last episode just came out a couple of weeks ago, so this is probably as strong as itís going to be. I donít really think itís this siteís type of game, but I donít even know how much it sold or whatever. These brand new games with no poll data whatsoever are kind of hard to gauge. I feel like all of our percentages are going to be way different here because none of us really know what to think of Life is Strange and what kind of effect Fallout 4 will have on Fallout 3.

Leonhartís Vote: Life is Strange

Leonhartís Prediction: Fallout 3 with 75.50%
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Moltar Status: hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
11/9/2015 7:18:29 PM#23
Kleenexís Analysis

Western games havenít done so hot thus far. Batman got routed by Mega Man, and Portal 2 couldnít steal a match from a vulnerable-looking Sonic. Bethesda games are on another tier, though. Fallout 3ís run in Game of the Decade was super impressive, and Skyrim has always had a lot of hype behind and I think itíll probably deliver on that in a couple days. Life is Strange is one of a couple cult darlings in this contest, but itís kind of up against a buzzsaw here. LiS wouldnít stand much of a chance here to begin with, but itís also weighed down by the fact that FALLOUT GODDAMN 4 COMES OUT TODAY. Itís amazing how often game releases line up with contest matches, but the conditions literally could not be better for Fallout 3 in this match. Unless Fallout 4 ends up being a total disaster (it wonít), it should help push F3 up to a pretty impressive performance.

Fallout 3 with 72%



Guestís Analysis - LinkMarioSamus

I had never heard of Life is Strange until the nominations started. I imagine I'm far from alone. Only reason I'm not taking Fallout 3 higher here is that it's hard to imagine it as the kind of game to break 85%, but I could definitely be wrong.

Also I have to not be the only one here who has never been interested in WRPGs, right?

Fallout 3 with 83%


Crew Consensus: Life is...a blowout
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Moltar Status: hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
I think we are overestimating Fallout a bit if we're saying 80%
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satoru iwata
I dunno. It got 81% on inFamous 1 in GOTD, so it can definitely get that high.
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http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif
Lopen's Unofficial http://i.imgur.com/MHfPt7x.gif Analysis:

Life Is Strange stands out as being one of three games in the bracket that I'm completely unfamiliar with beyond the name. I would normally say Fallout 3's blowout potential is limited but this feels like the worst game to capitalize on it

Lopen's Unofficlal http://i.imgur.com/MHfPt7x.gif Prediction:
Fallout 3 with 80.91%
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
11/9/2015 7:23:10 PM#27
Division 3: Round 1 - Match 22 Ė (6) Undertale vs. (11) Mass Effect 3

Moltarís Analysis

People might not look back highly of ME3, but at least a fair share of the voters have played it and didn't completely hate it. At the very least, that number of people has to outweigh the number of people who know what Undertale is.

It's the newest game in the Contest, having just been released two months ago. The people that have played it loved it, but it's only a small handful of people. ME3 might not get a massive blowout like people think it would get against a mostly unknown game, but it's in no danger of losing.

Moltarís Bracket: Mass Effect 3

Moltarís Prediction: Mass Effect 3 - 72%



Transienceís Analysis

So I've been playing Undertale slowly over the last couple of weeks. It really isn't very good! But don't tell that to the Undertale fanbase. It's basically a repeat of the Earthbound/Mother 3 fanbase and those guys are second to none in fandom. They will fight and claw for every bit of respect. I expect Undertale to be the same even though it is easily the least known game in the bracket, not to mention the newest.

I've heard people mention that Undertale will get rallied and I'll believe it. I also don't think very highly of ME3 - this game lost to Xenoblade in GOTY, and while I don't think it's that embarrassing, it's also not good - and there's also the fact that ME3 is a great rally target/anti-vote magnet. It should not be enough to matter, but with low vote totals you never know.

transience's prediction: Mass Effect 3 with 68.56%



Leonís Analysis

I know nothing about Undertale, so I canít really say anything about it. In fact, Iím going to look up some stuff on it right now. Apparently, the game is only two months old, but itís reviewed very well and apparently 250,000 people own it on Steam. Itís some old school looking RPG, from what I can tell. It could be decently popular! Mass Effect 3 is a big anti-vote target, too. It couldnít even beat Borderlands 2 and Xenoblade Chronicles in 2012. There are plenty of people who will never forgive and forget ME3ís ending. You still have people who love the game (like me), and I think there are enough of them to get it past Undertale here. I wonít be too surprised if it puts up a bad number though. In fact, I kinda expect it because those anti-votes will be real.

Leonhartís Vote: Mass Effect 3

Leonhartís Prediction: Mass Effect 3 with 63.60%
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Moltar Status: hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
11/9/2015 7:23:15 PM#28
Kleenexís Analysis

Speaking of cult darlings, hereís the cultest and darlingest of them all. I was almost willing to entertain the idea of Undertale winning this match, as Mass Effect 3 definitely has a negative stigma surrounding it for a bunch of reasons both legitimate and not, but after seeing ME1 perform (using the term loosely), I think Undertale has too much to overcome to come out on top. For me, it comes down to recognition. Undertale has a good chunk of rabid fans - it wouldnít have gotten a 6 seed otherwise. The problem is, that outside of that chunk, I donít think very many people know what Undertale is, or much care about it. In this case, I think Mass Effect 3 probably wins on account of just being Mass Effect.

Also I should really play Undertale.

Mass Effect 3 with 61%



Guestís Analysis - Applekidjosh

Some mood music: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B2jVbSI9H4o

Undertale is the 2015 Game of the Year and don't let anybody tell you otherwise. Unfortunately this match reminds me all too much of when I got to cheer on Laharl to his death. And King of all Cosmos. And Luca Blight. Just glad to be here, right? So even though I'm the last person in the world that hasn't played the Mass Effect games, I know I can't get my hopes up here. Even if Toby Fox himself tweeted a link, I don't think the Undertale fanbase could win :(

Mass Effect with an extremely conservative 60.00%



Crew Consensus: Undertale rallying can't top ME3...or can it?
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Moltar Status: hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
Lopen's Unofficial Guest Analysis:

Undertale stands out as being one of three games in the bracket that I'm completely unfamiliar with beyond the name. I would normally say Mass Effect 3's blowout potential is limited but this feels like the worst game to capitalize on it

Lopen's Unofficial Guest Prediction:
Mass Effect 3 with 80.91%
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
man people went even lower than me on ME3
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http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif
I think we're overestimating Life is Strange if you expect less than that
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add the c and back away
iphonesience
LeonhartFour posted...
I dunno. It got 81% on inFamous 1 in GOTD, so it can definitely get that high.


I mean, it's not necessarily 80% that's unobtainable, but Life is Strange isn't an unknown entity or anything. infamous wouldn't beat Life is Strange, in my opinion.
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satoru iwata
I know absolutely nothing about Life is Strange's reception and/or popularity. Like I said, I honestly had no idea what to predict here.
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http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif
(I thought about mentioning something about Two Best Friends having an LP of Life is Strange helping it out but I'm not sure we're ready to factor YouTube and Twitch into analyses yet)
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http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif
infamous would totally beat life is strange what are you on
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http://i.imgur.com/RHvCiY3.png
infamous is too good. They really knew how to keep it fresh and refine the gameplay to extreme fun.
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http://i498.photobucket.com/albums/rr345/Rakaputra/B8%20Girls%202012/pjbas.png
LongLiveraytan
Infamous would beat Life is Strange. And Undertale! Really easily!
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
You guys are straight crazy who in the hell like infamous
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satoru iwata
...I liked inFamous.

It'd be more popular now than in 2010 because literally everyone with a PS3 picked it as their "free" game during that PSN fiasco.
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http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif
Like this was the game Sony had to pull out for free. Man, infamous. What. No. No!
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satoru iwata
I'm pretty sure they gave it out for free to promote inFamous 2, since that came out shortly afterward!
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http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif
inFamous was pretty good. Know a good few people who enjoyed it-- more than I know have even played this indie stuff. Definitely not the flop you're making it out to be!
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
I like inFamous and its sequel.

I don't trust their staying power at all, they're definitely flash in the pan games, but they were fun.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
I have only played one episode of Life is Strange but it was a better time than infamous. I am not buying this infamous beating Life is Strange. I'm not even a fan!
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satoru iwata
Episode 1 was the worst episode of Life is Strange, too, so maybe you should play more.
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http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif
11/9/2015 7:55:10 PM#47
ooh infamous was a game sony gave me for free one of the times they got hacked, so I've at least heard of it. I never actually turned it on, but I mean that's better than 1/4 of the bracket where I just smile and nod as people talk about them!
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http://myanimelist.net/profile/angryaria
<Die the death>! <Sentence to death>! <Great equalizer is the death>!!
I need me some hot FFVIII writeups
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http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif
11/9/2015 9:02:27 PM#49
hot writeups coming up
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Moltar Status: hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
11/9/2015 9:05:22 PM#50
Division 3: Round 1 - Match 23 Ė (7) Grand Theft Auto: Vice City vs. (10) Final Fantasy VIII

Moltarís Analysis

You are now remembering that this was the Vice City of 11 years ago: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/1648-division-128-round-2-grand-theft-auto-vice-city-vs-super

The Vice City of 5 years ago then nearly got doubled by Resident Evil 4.

And now, the Vice City of today will roll over and die to FF8.

Freefallin~

Moltarís Bracket: Final Fantasy VIII

Moltarís Prediction: Final Fantasy VIII - 68%



Transienceís Analysis

This feels like a match that should have happened in 2004. Vice City was pretty popular then but has fallen off now. FF8 has also fallen off, I think, but the Final Fantasy name is still a mile ahead of the GTA one here, especially on a shrinking website. There might be some nostalgia for old GTAs, but I also feel that way about Halo and that is clearly not the case! It'll be good to see how GTA holds up here because San Andreas and 5 have some big matches coming up.

transience's prediction: Final Fantasy VIII with 71.34%



Leonís Analysis

Final Fantasy VIII got the perfect opponent to look good against here. GTA will negate some of the anti-votes FFVIII gets, and Vice City in particular seems to have lost a lot of favor. It and Vercetti look weaker every time we see them in a contest. Plus, Final Fantasy (and Square in general) has been looking pretty good so far. Give me some reason to have false hope for round two, FFVIII!

Leonhartís Vote: Final Fantasy VIII

Leonhartís Prediction: Final Fantasy VIII with 64.44%



Kleenexís Analysis

Nice try GTA, no one is falling for this trap anymore. Grand Theft Auto is a bigger perennial jobber than even Halo. Nothing related to that series is any good. Final Fantasy VIII has always been relatively strong, probably 4th in the FF hierarchy on this site. Factor in that Square games have been killing it so far, and I could see this match getting pretty out of control for Squall and crew. Itís actually too bad that FFVIII gets fed to an unbeatable opponent next round, because it could have been a pretty good bracket buster if it was placed in a different spot. Throw it in division 8, that could have been fun!

Final Fantasy VIII with 68%



Guestís Analysis - spooky96

There's no reason for anyone to pick GTA: Vice City here, ever since I've been on this website GTA has done nothing but embarrass itself. The only time when it seemed mildly respectable was when GTA: III put up 44% against Half-Life 2. The funny thing is Grand Theft Auto: III didn't even make the bracket, which is likely to be the strongest GTA game. As for GTA: Vice City, it put up 34% against Resident Evil 4 in GotD and managed to beat Metroid Prime and Paper Mario in the 2009 Games Contest. The 2009's performance may seem impressive but LOL 4-ways. The way I see GTA, it was lucky not to get doubled by Resident Evil 4 back in 2010. As for this match, I expect Final Fantasy VIII to put up at least 65%, as there's really no reason for any Grand Theft Auto game to be stronger than before. GTA: V may have been received well but I don't think it gave any kind of boost to any of its series' games. We've seen before that GameFAQs just doesn't care for the franchise while even though Square/Final Fantasy's godly days are way behind us, Final Fantasy VIII should still be able to give it quite a beating.

spooky's Prediction: Final Fantasy VIII with 65%



Crew Consensus: ...whatever
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Moltar Status: hype
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/

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