GameFAQs Contests
Best. Game. Ever. Contest Analysis Crew
ZeldaTPLink posted... And now my spread bet is going against the entirety of the crew. this ain't Vegas son we don't care about spreads --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
LeonhartFour posted... ZeldaTPLink posted...And now my spread bet is going against the entirety of the crew. Well it's the only thing in this contest where I have a remote chance of winning, so I do. |
transience posted... ME2 being stronger than ME1 is a fact. 3 is probably weaker than 1 but who knows. It's definitely weaker. Mostly due to the controversies. |
Division 3: Round 1 - Match 18 – (8) Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow vs. (9) Tetris Moltar’s Analysis rip tetris RBY was probably one of the worst opponents it could've drawn in the bracket. Sure, Tetris is an iconic handheld game that every knows, but RBY is the iconic handheld game that every knows and loves. RBY is going to make Tetris look like TWEWY here. Moltar’s Bracket: Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow Moltar’s Prediction: Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow - 76% Transience’s Analysis So this is interesting. Tetris's biggest strength is its playrate and its general likability, but put it up against a classic and it just folds. Pokemon Red/Blue is about as classic as it gets so it should get annihilated here. And that's why I like this: it's a tentpole match for Pokemon Red/Blue. Just how universally beloved is it? You see, you don't get more universally beloved than 2d Mario so if it can't go to town on Tetris, I'll be very worried. Zelda 1 dropped 75% on it in 2004 and it got 15% against both Mario 1 and Zelda 1. I think Pokemon needs at least a tripling to look legit and should probably be breaking 80% to show that it's ubiquitous. I'll go high but not that high. I mean, GSC only got 76% on TWEWY and I'd surely take Tetris over that. In my opinion, GSC and RBY are basically the same unless they're up against elite competition. transience's prediction: Pokemon Red/Blue with 75.79% Leon’s Analysis This may have been the worst possible matchup Tetris could have gotten. The game isn’t very strong as it is, but now it’s facing the one Game Boy game that can rival it in terms of widespread popularity and importance. We already saw Zelda 1 triple Tetris back in the original Games Contest, and I expect something even worse here. I’m sure people will overreact to this match and act like this makes R/B/Y a lock for the finals or whatever, but I won’t really be surprised if Pokemon puts on some sort of weird Game Boy SFF and makes Tetris look worse than it really is. Leonhart’s Vote: Tetris Leonhart’s Prediction: Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow/Green with 82.85% --- Moltar Status: hype Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
Kleenex’s Analysis Today we get to see the other most important game in the bracket show what it can do. Red/Blue could do anything from losing next round to winning the whole damn contest. L-Block aside, Tetris has never really been anything to write home about. It’s a great game for blowing out trash - who doesn’t know Tetris? - but the second you show it something with real strength it folds like...something that folds. I don’t know. Analogies aren’t my thing. Pokemon could, and probably should, shoot for the moon here. Mario 3 is very likely going to have everyone starstruck with its numbers, so Red and Blue are going to have to do the if next round is to end up being the blockbuster we expect it to be. Pokemon Red/Blue with 70% Guest’s Analysis - haloiscoolisback In what might be the first close match in the bracket make-or-break situation that is Division 3, two heavyweights of the gaming industry take each other on round 1. Tetris, one of the most recognisable and influential games of all time does have L-Block on its side so we know Gamefaqs users don't mind throwing votes at it. But in a games contest, its simplicity and age will surely hurt it against RBY, who I have winning the division. RBY will have several tougher matches than this along the way, but I think it'll also have some easier ones(Round 3). RBY will win but it wont be as convincing as the people who having it reach the finals will want it to be. However I don't think any of its potential victories against either SM3,W or 64 will be by a large enough margin to inspire much hope for the following match. Don't back RBY to go all the way if you have heart troubles. Crew Consensus: Pokemon uses Gameboy SFF. It's super effective! --- Moltar Status: hype Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
no percentage for guest? screw portal and sonic, this is the match to watch --- add the c and back away iphonesience |
The
Mario 3 matches worries me because if it's less than like 90% and
Pokemon gets 80% you're gonna see the AOE2 or Tetris arguments eveywhere --- satoru iwata |
Inb4 "AoE is better than every game in the poll because it has/used to have a competitive scene" |
transcience posted... no percentage for guest? I'm not good at guessing those. But if asked I'll go 65-35 just to stay consistent with the tone of my post.. though I seem to be underrating RBY based on everyone else's view of this match --- Started from the bottom now we here |
Mario
3/Age of Empires II: Okay, so I over-estimated today's Nintendo vs. old
PC game stomp, but tomorrow's looks even more promising! SMB3 has
extremely widespread appeal, and is obviously stronger than Smash Wii U.
AoEII might not even be as strong as Planescape (I imagine GameFAQs
cares more about legendary PC RPGs than legendary RTSs), and even if it
is, it might still get held in the mid teens. Stomp of the round
potential here. Pokemon RBY/Tetris: I actually have some respect for Tetris, but this is probably the worst game in the bracket it could have drew. What a waste. The biggest handheld phenomenon ever that likely doesn't even trail Tetris in playrate very much, and certainly doesn't in mindshare. It'll probably still do a little better than people think because it's pretty respected and has shown some strength in earlier contests. Portal 2/Sonic the Hedgehog 2: Old, respected game of questionable strength vs. new, respected game of questionable strength. I took Portal 2 in my bracket, but I'm very, very scared of this match, especially after Portal folded like a wet blanket against Melee. Still though, I think non-Mario platformers are in a bit of a different situation to those old RPGs like FFVI/CT/Xenogears that only ripen with age. But then I think about that MMX/Arkham City match and get scared again. MMX didn't just win against a game that once beat Portal 2 in a GOTY poll, it got 60%, and I find it hard to believe Sonic 2 is that much weaker than MMX. Going with Sonic 2. Uncharted 2/The Walking Dead: One of those matches where I'm sure of the victor, but have no idea of the %. TWD did well enough in the 2012 GOTY polls to make me sure it's not worthless fodder, and that's probably enough to get well into the 30s against Uncharted 2. And with how badly recent games have been doing in general I doubt UC2 will have gone up much from GOTD. --- We are living our lives Abound with so much information (edited 11/8/2015 8:11:46 PM)report |
Lopen's unofficial analysis I feel like Pokemon SFFs Tetris into the dirt here. Believe in that iconic portable game SFF Lopen's prediction: Pokeman with 85.18% --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
Hey Leon I got your back with this one --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
Division 3: Round 1 - Match 19 – (5) Portal 2 vs. (12) Sonic the Hedgehog 2 Moltar’s Analysis Moltar’s Bracket: Portal 2 'whoops' So as the contest plays out, we see certain trends appear and gather new information. Then, we can look at things in a new way that we couldn't pre-contest. For example, pre-contest I thought Portal was popular and liked enough on GameFAQs to beat a non-Mario/Zelda/FF 16-bit game like Sonic. Yeah, Sonic is popular, but Portal is pretty strong! Sure Portal 2 won't be as strong as the original, but Sonic's on the downswing anyway and probably won't be worth much. Then old games started trouncing newer games. Then Portal got doubled by Melee. So I'm going with the current contest trends, which say that nostalgia will win and Sonic 2 will beat Portal 2 without any problem. Moltar’s Prediction: Sonic the Hedgehog 2 - 59% Transience’s Analysis All signs point to Sonic 2. Classic games are going big on new games, Portal just got doubled by Melee after getting 45% on RE4 and there's a sense that Batman and Assassin's Creed are forgotten games that are just dying off with time. Portal is the definition of an in-the-moment game and its time may very well have passed. Portal 2 never hit hard like Portal 1 did and I don't think I've seen anyone talk about it in a long while. Let's just say that people aren't clamoring for a Portal 3 like they are a Half-Life 3. But like.. Sonic sucks. It really sucks! Sonic 2 had a fourway match against Mortal Kombat 2, Secret of Mana and Shining Force 2. That's a pretty trashy fourpack! And yet Sonic 2 only got 37% and MK2 got fairly close to it (30%). Then it faced FF6 and Link's Awakening and got butchered. We do this kneejerk thing of Sonic = Mega Man, and Sonic 2 = Mega Man X, and it just ain't true. Sonic's a good step behind, maybe more so. Sonic is iconic but I don't think very many people actually care about its game. It's also getting less relevant as our Sega fanbase washes up. So ultimately, it comes down to if people will just see Sonic and vote Sonic out of apathy. I think that's its best chance - that people just don't care about blind vote for the franchise. This seems like the most likely possibility just given the voting trends of this contest. Portal 2 is probably more popular if you got actual fans to vote, but since people will be voting for Pokemon and Mario here, they'll probably just throw a vote in for Sonic and say whatever. I'll go with it even though I want to say screw Sonic and pick the better game. transience's prediction: Sonic 2 with 54.01% Leon’s Analysis Now that we’ve seen the first couple of divisions, things seem to be pointing toward a Sonic 2 victory here. At first glance, it feels like Batman/Mega Man X all over again, and the games even share polls! Arkham City outdid Portal 2 in GOTY, and Mega Man X outdid Sonic 2 in 2009 against FFVI and Link’s Awakening. The original Portal undershot expectations against Melee a bit (although not as badly as it appeared in the first five minutes!). Old games in general seem to be faring better than new games, especially when we’ve seen old vs. new in polls. --- Moltar Status: hype Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
That’s
not to say Portal 2 doesn’t have a chance. Sonic games in general
haven’t really been that strong here. Decent, but nothing special. This
site hasn’t ever really cared about Sega games or systems that much.
Sonic as a character is the exception because he’s so iconic, and now
he’s been in a lot of Nintendo games, to boot (That being said, the old
Sonic games are widely available on other platforms, too). And while
people seemed to be convinced beforehand that Portal 1 was the stronger
game, it’s entirely possible that Portal 2 is stronger. It got a 5 seed
as opposed to Portal’s 14 seed for a reason, you’d think (Of course,
noms don’t equal strength, but still). I picked Sonic 2 in my bracket and I’m sticking with it, not for any particular logical reason, but because I’m a Sonic fanboy. The factors seem to be pointing toward a victory for it here, but I don’t expect it to be a 60/40 romp like we saw in MMX/Arkham City. It’ll be a little closer than that, but I think Sonic 2 wins. Leonhart’s Vote: Sonic the Hedgehog 2 Leonhart’s Prediction: Sonic the Hedgehog 2 with 54.75% Kleenex’s Analysis something something sonic cycle Look, Mega Man X’s win over Batman seems to have given people renewed hope in Sonic 2’s chances to win this match. I’m not buying it. Nothing I’ve ever seen from Sonic gives me any faith in the game winning this match. Sonic 2 looked pretty anemic back in BGE2. Sure that was 6 years ago, but that also means 6 more years of mediocre to bad games to further distance Sonic from the gaming public. Yes yes I know. “Generations was a legitimately good game. Colors was not that bad, no one died playing it.” I’ve heard it all before. The nostalgia grab is going to have to be huge for Sonic to win this, because Portal isn’t some total non-name for it to prey on solely on name recognition. RIP Sonic. Portal 2 with 56% Guest’s Analysis - Xeybozn Hey, look! It's another one of those debatable "Old vs. New" match-ups! The sort of thing we've wanted for years! Exciting, right? Well, after watching older games consistently impress every day so far, you could argue this match isn't looking quite as fun as expected pre-contest. This isn't just any old game in this match, though. This is a Sonic game, and anyone who says Sonic is a lock to win today needs to go look at how Sonic games did in previous contests. Older games doing well is a great sign for Sonic, but GameFAQs has always supported older Nintendo games heavily. A game from Nintendo's old rival isn't going to get quite as many nostalgia votes, is it? That said, the older Sonic games have looked decent enough against non-Nintendo competition. Sonic 2 is capable of winning matches, but if it runs into a game with any real strength, it'll be in trouble. --- Moltar Status: hype Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
So
what can we expect from Portal 2? I don't think it's fair to use
Portal's slight under-performance on Melee as a strike against it; we
don't know exactly how strong Melee is, after all. Half-Life's showing
against FFX is enough to disprove any claims that Valve games have
fallen off a cliff or something. And we all know Portal was big all over
the internet for years, especially after it was given away for free.
There's just one big problem here: while Portal 2 is generally regarded
as the better game, it really caught fire outside of the core Valve
fanbase around here. Just look at its disappointing performance in the
2011 Game of the Year polls. It still has the Portal name to draw casual
fans who never got around to playing the second game and that should
help it a lot, but is it enough to win this match? Maybe, but today's
match pics aren't going to do it Portal 2 any favors; a title in white
text on a white background with a picture of a white robot that isn't in
the first game might not be the best way to pull in casual Portal fans.
Meanwhile, Sonic 2's pic has art that is instantly recognizable to
anyone with any experience with the series. It's not huge, but in such a
questionable match it's as good a reason to pick a winner as anything
else. Prediction: Sonic 2 - 51.21% Crew Consensus: Sonic speeds by with the majority of picks --- Moltar Status: hype Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
get ready Kleenex blue streak speeds by --- satoru iwata |
also for the record MMX/Sonic 2 is projected to be 55/45 based on their 2009 common opponents --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
Lopen's unofficial guest analysis: These Old vs New matches are pretty confusing to call, but after seeing how Portal did earlier, and how other old games have been doin, I'm a bit more confident in this one going in. Sonic should win with a bit of breathing room here I think, although I wouldn't entirely rule out Sonic just being weak for games and choking this one away. Lopen's prediction: Sonic 2 with 55.55% --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
let's go portal 2 --- xyzzy |
Fun fact I apparently had Mass Effect in my bracket. Guess I waffled to the right side in the end where it counted. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
I think my day 1 bracket (-2) is doing better than my real bracket (-3). I love it when that happens. --- xyzzy |
Two
of the late changes I've made (Symphonia > TTYD and ME1 > Galaxy
2) have balanced each other out. The other was switching from Xenoblade
> SOTN to SOTN > Xenoblade, so that'll be the difference maker! --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
Division 3: Round 1 - Match 20 – (4) Uncharted 2 vs. (13) The Walking Dead Moltar’s Analysis Well we saw some TWD characters last contest and they were pretty weak. Obviously games =/= characters, but it's very likely the game isn't all that strong either. Uncharted 2 could compete with Halo 1 5 years ago (and would probably beat it today), which is more than I think TWD is capable of. Moltar’s Bracket: Uncharted 2 Moltar’s Prediction: Uncharted 2 - 63% Transience’s Analysis I was really antsy on this match on day 1 but I feel better and better every day. Walking Dead did pretty well, placing like third or fourth in a GOTY poll, but it was one of the weakest GOTY polls we've had. I also think that Walking Dead is probably fading over time. Meanwhile, Uncharted 2 is certainly growing over time and I basically attach it and Last of Us, and that just went to town on a Halo game. So I feel confident that Uncharted pulls a very nice win here. transience's prediction: Uncharted 2 with 62.01% Leon’s Analysis Uncharted 2 wasn’t too impressive in GOTD. 57% on Legend of Dragoon, 54% on Street Fighter IV, and 46% on Halo 1. None of those performances jump out at you as particularly good. It didn’t do that well in GOTY either (It was the runner-up the year Call of Duty won, so that should tell you something). I would have almost entertained the idea of a Walking Dead upset here based on just those performances. Walking Dead did fairly well during its GOTY polls, coming pretty close to eventual runner-up Xenoblade (the year Borderlands 2 won, which should also tell you something, I suppose). However, The Last of Us blowing out Halo 3 the other day has kind of swung my opinion on this somewhat. That game is the obvious parallel to draw to Uncharted 2. Same type of game, both made by Naughty Dog, both critically acclaimed and widely hailed as one of the best PS3 games. Plus, Uncharted 2 was only a year old during GOTD, so maybe giving it some time to sink in and be more widely played has benefited it. The games were recently re-released on PS4 as well, so that may give it a small boost. In short, I’m not really worried about it losing this match anymore, and depending on how well it does here, I may have to reevaluate my thinking that the winner of Portal 2/Sonic 2 wins the fourpack. Leonhart’s Vote: Uncharted 2 Leonhart’s Prediction: Uncharted 2 with 62.25% --- Moltar Status: hype Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
Kleenex’s Analysis The Last of Us’s big performance gives me a little bit of renewed faith in Uncharted 2. Not that I thought it had much of a chance of losing to The Walking Dead in the first place, but maybe it can finally live up to its perpetual overseeding. That’s one possibility. The other is that Uncharted is still kind of a turd, is completely separate from TLoU and gears up to lose to whoever won between Portal and Sonic next round. I could honestly see either happening, it’s just a bummer that both scenarios involve TWD because that game is great and it deserves better. I suppose there’s always option 3, in which the voters thing they’re voting for the TV show and Uncharted gets wrecked. I think I have a little more faith in the voters than that, though. Maybe. Probably. Uncharted 2 with 61% Guest’s Analysis - Menji This match is interesting in the fact that both games are well received, won multiple game of the year awards, and have characters that do extremely poor in the character battles. There isn’t much prior data to go off on these two games – in fact, before I did any research I thought UC2 had looked impressive in its appearances until I saw it lost to Halo last contest. I’ll chalk that up to it still being relatively new. Both have done reasonable well in their GOTY polls. UC2 lost to Modern Warfare 2 during CoD’s brief popularity spurt whereas The Walking Dead lost out to numerous high profile games – AC3, Borderlands 2, Mass Effect 3, and Xenoblade. My initial gut feeling had this as a comfortable victory for UC2 but I’ve toned that down a bit (Mainly from looking at prior polls). The series has had some time to cement itself in gamer’s minds. Its sequel, the recent remastered collection, and the hype of the 4th game in the series should be enough to put it over The Walking Dead. A series that (I think) is the only Telltale game to get a second season. Prediction: Uncharted 2 – 56.45% > The Walking Dead - 43.55% Crew Consensus: The Walking Dead on Arrival --- Moltar Status: hype Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
also more guest signups are up http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/72786915 --- Moltar Status: hype Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/ |
sometimes it creeps me out how close we always predict our percentages --- http://i.imgur.com/RHvCiY3.png |
leon and i basically wrote the same thing --- xyzzy |
Lopen Unofficial Analysis: Uncharted hasn't been a powerhouse, but it should be strong enough to win against some random Indie stuff. I feel like this match is much closer than it should be though just because some people blindly vote The Walking Dead as a brand here if they have no particular fondness for Uncharted 2. Walking Dead is probably one of the stronger ones of these types of games too, to be fair. I'm just saying don't run down Uncharted that much when it disappoints a lot here. Lopen's prediction: Uncharted 2 with 54.19% --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
LeonhartFour posted... now watch Walking Dead win lawl I literally don't even know what genre of game Uncharted is but I loved the walking dead so this would make me pretty happy! --- http://myanimelist.net/profile/angryaria <Die the death>! <Sentence to death>! <Great equalizer is the death>!! |
I feel the opposite of you Lopen. I'm feeling like Uncharted 2 goes for 70%. --- xyzzy |
That's what my writeup would have looked like pre-contest, but now, I feel like a beatdown is coming. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
Yeah
I dunno if I really agree with the Last Of Us = Naughty Dog boost
across the board hype you guys are selling. I don't expect Uncharted 2
to really go far out of what you'd normally expect. Could happen,
though! --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
I'm
not really calling for a Naughty Dog boost across the board. UC2 has
reasons to be better now than it was then. Last of Us was just a "Whoa,
these games can be pretty strong" signal. --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
yeah,
I don't think the two are attached. I just think Uncharted's gotten a
lot bigger. I had it winning this fourpack until I chickened out. --- xyzzy |
Even
though Mario 3 is doing a little bit worse than I expected, RBY looks
even worse than Mario 3. I would call RBY a flop here, not Mario 3. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ! |
Mario 3 letting CT scoop the blowout of the contest right from under its nose what a disgrace --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
Super Smash Bros. for Wii U 79.05% 29287 Planescape: Torment 20.95% 7761 TOTAL VOTES 37048 Super Mario Galaxy 2 49.17% 18547 Mass Effect 50.83% 19172 TOTAL VOTES 37719 Minecraft 43.28% 15885 Halo: Combat Evolved 56.72% 20814 TOTAL VOTES 36699 Final Fantasy VII 84.07% 31574 Journey 15.93% 5985 TOTAL VOTES 37559 Crew Predictions: 14/16 What Happened: Smash 4 quadruples an obscure PC game; Mass Effect pulls way from Galaxy 2 in the most drawn out and painful way possible; Halo handles Minecraft after an early scare; FF7 beats expectations for the first time in years. What Will Happen: Mass Effect/Smash 4 is an interesting match, FF7 prepares to blow away Halo Crew Prediction Challenge: Leon and Guest hit on Mass Effect; tran misses Minecraft (thankfully). Guest in the lead?! Guest: 15 Moltar: 14 Leonhart: 14 Kleenex: 13 transience: 12 Crew Accuracy Challenge: Leon edges out Kleenex on Smash, Leon edges out Guest on Mass Effect, Kleenex sucks the least on Halo and Leon gets FF7 Leonhart: 6 Kleenex: 3.5 Guest: 2.5 transience: 1.5 Moltar: 1.5 --- xyzzy |
Mario is disappointing. Amazing that the lowest percentage is Moltar's 89% and it isn't even breaking 83% at this point. --- "I do because I can." http://card.psnprofiles.com/1/Micer101.png |
Whoa,
I finally just got around to checking out the Mario 3 predictions from
the Crew and those predictions were a lot higher than I was expecting.
Hell, I actually lowered my Oracle prediction by 1% down to 88.45%, so
even my relatively high prediction is still lower than the entire Crew. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as raytan7585, Guru Champ! |
If the first 4 days on the contest didn't already kill my bracket, today put the final nail in it. --- http://i.imgur.com/RHvCiY3.png |
oh... oh god... nothing is going right today --- http://myanimelist.net/profile/angryaria <Die the death>! <Sentence to death>! <Great equalizer is the death>!! |
I edged out AKJ for FFVII, too! I like to live on the edge. it's kind of weird that I'm leading Accuracy points right now because when I miss, I miss big --- http://i.imgur.com/3DwCNLJ.gif |
Earthbound sucks --- Whiskey Nick on his cell phone "Every man's heart one day beats its final beat." -Warrior |
